Good morning, welcome back to another stock market. Open we've got ourselves well a little bit of red uh. We've got uh india, let's see here. Global bonds and stocks fall as inflation fears mount going back to the good old inflation fears.

You know it seems like we always circle back to this uh this year has been such a crazy crazy year for uh being concerned about inflation. It just seems like since february, even though we knew it was coming since february. It's just constantly: inflation, inflation, inflation, but hey! You know what that's the way we get deals in this stock market, so uh, let's uh, let's take a look at how the indices are doing and then we'll look at individual stocks and crypto see if crypto's moving. Let's see what we got over here so on cnbc, it looks like everything's down about half of a percent dow jones down 0.55 s p down 0.57 nasdaq down 0.52.

If we grab those bonds. Look at that us 10 year right back to 1.61 uh, almost uh they're 1.62, knocking on those uh recent high, uh or sort of the door of the recent highs. If we go out here to let's see this, is the year chart we can see over here we were at 1.7 1.75 range. We did recently hit a high of also about 1.62 and that's roughly, where we sit now.

I did have an intraday high of 1.65. So we're still a little bit shy of that uh all right, so uh, look at this first bitcoin futures etf is the futures etf to make its debut on the new york stock exchange on tuesday nice. That should be pretty uh, pretty bullish for bitcoin. Let's uh go ahead and take a look at coin market cap here so uh we have uh bitcoin, actually rotating down a little bit on the news could be a buy.

The rumor sell the news sitting at uh 60 412 with ethereum at 3414 and cardano at 211 - all of them slightly depressed here, so uh all right. Let's see here how the individual stocks are doing and uh what's causing some of the fears i'm going to quickly. Also, take a look at this here: we've got our bloom terminal, mentioning that uh apple is among one of the biggest pre-market decliners, while tesla advanced with crypto and mining stocks. Well, i think uh cryptos kind of slowed down a little bit consumer and retail shares led a drop in the europe's stock 600 with the luxury company slipping on concerns about china's tax legislation.

Shares in asia were mixed as china's economy slowed in the third quarter. Global bond sell-off gathered pace with uk yields surging after the bank of england warned on the need to respond to price pressures. Ooh price pressures, inflation - all right, let's uh, let's go take a look at individual stocks and uh. What else is going on in the marquettes? All right hope everyone had a wonderful weekend.

Okay, so let's uh, let's start with a loser so far today, take a look at zillow, zillow, absolutely getting destroyed by about 8.6 as the company pauses purchasing properties anymore. What's up with that, it's what they do. They don't take any more properties because they say they have too many of them. They can't get enough labor to support fixing up all of the ones that they have, plus more so they're pausing, while at the same time we've got upstart dropping 5.6 uh, which, quite frankly, for a stock, that's just been on a tear, is uh doesn't feel like It's anything but a little bit of a speed bump uh.

Let's see if there's any particular news here, yeah bank of america securities cut up start to underperform from neutral and received a price target of 300 for upstart. That's your big news on upstart today, driving upstart down ocugen's just been having a little bit of a rough time since uh. Since their uh kova drug was considered for uh, it's called covax and was considered in india. You have a nice little pump on that, but not much uh, not much excitement uh to last around kovacsin yeah and that you did also get a lot of momentum moving into it.

So it's possible we're getting some momentum moving out of ocugen. So not a lot of uh news around this hot, a mining was up uh to around 1250. I want to say in the pre-market, certainly well over 12. now it's sitting at 11 85 as bitcoin's fallen again.

Uh heavily moves, of course, with the price of bitcoin. As a bitcoin miner and uh matterport's down a percent 1868 very nice, very nice uh sofi a down point: nine three little mini buying ops. Although then again so far at you know, 19 plus, i don't know how excited i am about it. Uh affirms dropping down about uh three quarters of a percent sitting at 145 right there with square.

I like seeing it trade with square to me. That's uh. It's usually a good sign when we just have a link there, less of uh less of a concern about uh, an individual stock issue and more of just an overall sectoral issue, all right cannabis, etf, very good food. What do we got over here? Owlette, two percent? Camber energy, five percent fuel cell five percent hippo one three: eight dave and buster's coming up percent.

Look at that tesla sitting at 850, even up 0.86 percent. It's getting exciting going into earnings here, facebook's up 0.87 percent peloton uh. Let's see here, peloton up 0.69 dq energy that one's been doing pretty well, starting to rotate up corsair gaming up a quarter of a percent amc up, 0.22 crisper up 0.14 and wayfair up 0.1. All right! So, let's take a look and see what's causing some of these movements uh in the market today and uh see if we can get a little bit more of an understanding.

So, let's see all right, let's see what we got: okay, so zillow tumbles after it stops buying homes yeah. We saw that that's odd, i'm just surprised that they wouldn't just be a little bit more discriminatory. You know like what i would do is. I would just give rougher pricing, you know uh, like hey sorry, you know this is all we could pay right now, take it or leave it kind of thing.

I mean there's still deals. You should be able to pick up. So it's surprising to me that they're, just stopping everything, fed staff says wall street is getting inflation, call all wrong. Let's see here, fed staff says wall street is getting inflation all wrong.

All right, federal reserve's army of more than 400 phd economies has met. Economists has a message on inflation for policymakers and the american public chill out. Do we believe them do? We believe them nah? While some officials are publicly anxious about rising prices and wall street has ramped up its forecast, the fed staff in washington predicts inflation will be back under 2 in 2022, according to the minutes of the last month's fomc, as well as the fomc's long-term target of two Percent, it's less than half of the 4.3 percent pace. The fed fed's preferred measure of price pressure is recorded in the year through august.

That would be the pce. We haven't gotten the pce yet for september you usually end up getting that towards the end of the month. That's the personnel, consumption expenditures or personal consumption expenditures, but anyway uh claudia sham a former fed economist and senior fellow says you should take it seriously, but it doesn't mean it's right. You have the top forecasters in the world.

It's like they're trying to shield a fed, uh, we'll see staff forecast a year ago. Anticipate inflation would pick up from levels uh at that time, around 1.3 percent, but not leap, but not the leap that in fact happened. Even so, fed forecasts have regularly battered wall street consensus forecasts all right. Well, we'll see how things go.

What bloomberg economists say? Economics says all right with uh with regard to their sub two percent forecast for next year. I think that's plausible, but i and they would have to hasten to a full appreciation for just how wide confidence intervals are around any inflation forecast. Ah, head of the fed's research and statistics division yeah he sold out too no i'm kidding uh. Anyone making predictions would do well to discard the committee forecast in favor of the staff and should put little or negative weight on the commercial forecast.

Okay, uh fed staff forecast more accurate than private forecast interesting, while the fed doesn't identify who's behind its forecast. The staff haven't shied away from making out of the consensus calls uh, let's see here. Inflation expectations are a critical tool in assessing the inflation outlook. Yeah was wrong, says: jeremy, uh, jeremy rudd, one of the staff members.

I always find it's interesting that how inflation expectations could uh could potentially lead to inflation, but anyway, we're dealing with the subatomic particles of data that are out there. We can sift through the incoming data in a way that no wall street shop can do it because they don't have enough people, okay and that's what they ended on. I don't know i don't know is that. Does anybody believe them we'll see amazon plans to hire 150 000? For oh, my gosh? This is this is bullish on a firm right here.

Folks, oh my goodness, let's get this ad out here this this, in my opinion, very bullish on a firm amazon plans to hire a hundred fifty thousand for the holidays, fifty percent more than in twenty twenty fifty percent more than in 2020 in 2020, we're at steamy With stimulus money, yes, money, uh and now uh now we're hiring people like crazy amazon looks like world's largest online retailer, typically hires, legions of temporary workers. Since the pandemic supercharged online shopping last year, amazon has been rapidly expanding its logistics operation, opening warehouses, urban delivery depots. Wow look at this at a pace of roughly one per day. In september the company said it already had open 250 logistics facilities in 2021 and with an additional 100 that month alone, wow average starting pay 18.

fierce competition for entry level. Workers guys, if you're just getting started now, go work for amazon uh if you're working, minimum wage drop back crap and go work for amazon and then work for something better after that season ends but um worse or see. If you can get a perm job, but wow all right, let's see here down, is still up for foreign investors, probably into china all right, hmm, oh yeah, why you're, probably better off buying bitcoin than bitcoin futures? I mean just from that headline. I agree.

Okay, let's uh, let's take a look over back at the sticks here, see what kind of movement we have tesla's still sitting at 8.50 in the pre-market facebook at uh 327 and, let's see, let's see what they got over here, hold on a sec. What's this exclusive talk person as well for the first time, it's nice to be here in person uh, it's a good morning to have you i'd, love to just start off on the commodity itself that at least being oil on oil yeah? I don't know how excited we are, or did we hit 85, yet let me pull it up. Are you surprised at all by the move that's taken place over these last few months? Well, you have to step back and think about how oil prices are set. They're set in a global market typically supply and demand, are both big numbers about 100 million barrels a day and they move slowly, and so any differences tend to go into or out of uh storage and look at that 85-47 we broke 85 on the brent is Demand collapsed, supply can't adjust that fast and so tanks filled up to a point where prices actually went negative right.

They went negative for a period of time there. Of course that was well. That was the spring of 2020, something we've never seen. They were very low for a long period of time and producers adjust, they cut production, they cut capital spending.

Now we're seeing demand come back strongly in frankly, every sector of the economy except international air travel, and we still uh see supply responding more slowly. So i think the market's concerned that uh that that supply won't necessarily keep up with the strength we're seeing in demand, and i think that results in this view that uh needs to be a stronger price. This will hang in there. Well, one of the themes we've discussed many mornings, of course jim and carl, and i is the fact that many producers don't seem intent on putting a lot more money into development right now, as as they do returning it to shareholders, uh allocating capital instead to buybacks And or even dividends, as opposed to spending, is that appropriate for this environment? Well, i think, there's a couple of things that have changed that um that really do affect the rate of reinvestment.

Uh one is government policy and we certainly see policies that have discouraged future uh fossil fuel development, and then we also have seen messaging from investors that they prefer a return of cash. Certainly in the exploration production sector, investors suggest they want a return of cash nah. All right, let's uh, let's pull off oil! Here we got about 15 minutes to the opening here. Uh bitcoin is sitting at a 60 340 ethereum 3716 cardano 212.

cardano have been trading sideways for like a month. Look at the ethereum chart here we'll go to the seven day a little bit down on on the uh last four days here, not as low as we have been about as of about a week ago, when we did drop to about 34 33 uh sitting at 35, what are we at three thousand twenty seven hundred twenty two right now: intraday intraday, getting to roughly a low on the intraday. Let's go ahead and hop on over here to the uh the hour chart. Here's the hour candlestick on aetherium gives you a little bit of an idea, all right, so hmm tesla's still sitting at 8.50.

It's it's holding it's holding on to that green amc's, pretty much flat, matterport's down about a percent zillow's, the ones getting wrecked, but it really makes sense. I mean zillow, says hey. One of our biggest activities is something that we're gon na pause. Doing it's not a surprise disney being down 2.24 is kind of interesting makes me wonder if there's news for disney upstart, of course got downgraded, we saw open door.

Redfin would make sense that they're going down a little bit as well under on, but honestly like that might just be the market fearful about uh about them stopping purchases, but it should be an opportunity for them to make more money less competition in the market. Uh. All right, let's see what else we have here, all right, get some more more insights into this madness. All right, so bitcoin, future etf is kill me stock market slips, china growth disappoints and we get numbers today.

Let's see, oh look, we got ourselves a weenie baby. Mr barry brown says he's sad about my green hair and then therefore he's canceling his subscription, ah he's so mad about the green hair that he doesn't want a green name anymore. Bye, don't care dow slips bitcoin surges and what else is happening in the stock market? All right: well, let's see what baron seems to think uh chinese gdp, okay, chinese gdp, expanded by 4.9 percent year-over-year in the third quarter, while industrial production for september rose 3.1 percent. Both measures fell short of expectations, yeah.

That is a little slow for uh for china. Manufacturing was hit hard by supply chain disruptions due to covet yeah. That is uh, that is an expectation. 10-Year treasury yield rose 1.6 yeah.

We saw this huh okay, so a little bit of a miss on chinese growth. I mean i, it doesn't surprise me that the the china is slowing down a little bit uh, especially with the whole evergrant crisis i mean really. China's slowing down come on, like is, is that our catalyst now um, oh yeah, yeah boomer berry, that's a good one! Oh this, the chat, little thing here is all different hold on a second, i'm gon na put up a comment for a sec just so i can change it where's, the setting minimal. No, that's too small bubble.

I like bubble blocks, not bad either. Let's try block for a while. I haven't done that one in a while uh all right come on. Let's get some more news here, so i'm gon na try the top on the term.

Let me see what they put up over here. Uh us industrial production just fell okay, so we just got september. Industrial production fell 1.3 percent month after month, after falling 0.1 in august. So 1.3 is a little bit.

More than uh. Expected capacity fell to 75.2 percent from 76.2, revised down factory production fell 0.7. In september, utilities fell 3.6 in september and mining fell 2.3 percent uh. So i wonder if a lot of the september data is potentially rotating down because uh because of the delta variant, which is so weird, it's so weird to think about this fear over covet cases, because covet cases have really been plummeting.

But you still have this. These lagging reports coming in a lot of these lagging reports coming in about about really september data, which is, in my opinion, highly weighed down by the delta variant, and you jump over here into covet cases, and i mean look at the covet case - counts they they're. Just plummeting, which is wonderful, i mean this is phenomenal to see. We really see that peak that happened here and we didn't get that uk shelf.

We were worried about the uk shelf by the way. Let me just show it to you here, so this is the yeah. You see look. This is the uk shelf where you hit this peak, you fell, but then you kind of you've shelved and they can't get this down the united kingdom and they have a way way way higher vax rate than the united states uh.

I think they have. What was the last stat, the last read as of last month was something like 88 of their adult population is uh, uh double vaxxed and we were somewhere around 68 to 70 percent, so they have a way. You know better vax rate, but uh. Apparently, that's actually not helping their covet.

Uh transmission spread anyway, all right, interesting, so uh. What else we got here? Gosh tesla's moving towards a percent up, it's now a 0.91 almost at 8.51. This is while the broader market's red, what's apple, doing aapl. Let's grab apple here, so somebody asked about my thoughts on lemonade, long term.

Yeah, apple's down point three: pretty excited about lemonade, long term problem isn't anytime! I talk about them. I always want to stress that they they really are attracting poor millennials to uh to con. You know convert them over to the insurance biz and uh. Oh interesting, larissa.

Thank you very much for saying that uh interesting, interesting thing, uh larissa says i'm from the united kingdom and those numbers are so high because of kids getting it at school. The age range of positive cases right now is 10 to 19. wow. Let me i i want to i want to see if we can break these down even in the united states, by chart or by age covid cases by age, united states, but yeah anyway.

I i do feel that um well, let's go to the cdc's uh lemonade's, really one of those very very long-term plays, and so i'm in it for the long term uh. Just because you're waiting for the markets to see. Oh, my gosh they're really good at getting millennials to transition over yeah. Anyway.

Does anybody have a good website? We can track uh, coveted cases by age on in the united states. I mean i'm gon na try united kingdom. Now. Let's see latest insights, i don't know who the ons gov is office of national statistics.

Okay, that sounds good. So do we have any breakdown here? No, no particular charts here on age. Hmm, i suppose these are things we could probably pick up on articles, though, but anyway uh your world and data. Okay, your world in data uh covet covet cases age our world and data you're ruling that our world, in that, oh, my goodness, oh this is interesting cases.

Oh i've seen this before. Okay, all right can we get this by age, confirmed cases not so easily nah i'll i'll, explore it i'll explore and circle back. That's not so important for me to go hunting for this right now, because we got a market open coming. We got to see what's happening here, so we saw industrial production fall in the u.s in september.

We see slowing growth in china again, not a horrible surprise, and things are slowing down in china. Let's see what's in the live, blog, okay, let's see, copper to gold ratio. Copper has become more expensive relative to gold, and that has an interesting read for inflation or offer rate expectations longer dated us rates may have further to climb based on the indicator. Wow, the direction of travel in the ratio between the metal has been has an uncanny relationship with yields.

In fact, the correlation between the ratio and yields was statistically significant. Okay, interesting so in other words, as as gold is, is not moving up as high as copper. We uh can increase our expectations potentially for rates to go up even more oil also quote, looks set to enjoy a bullish run for a long time, ooh yeah, so both of those things - oil going up and uh rates going up. We're going to make people feel a little bit more fearful, uh on uh on the market, that that is definitely an expectation, so the energy crunch isn't likely to ease anytime soon.

That makes the bullish case for oil that much more much more alluring into the year. End as global economies, struggle to shift from old energy to new the use of oil for heating has helped offset reduced demand that was originally brought up by the delta variant. Now oil inventory blah blah blah. Okay, all right.

What else push higher in uk short end rates continues? Climate takes a back seat as oil crisis multiplies inflation. Fears stir some interesting moves. Well, i want to know what these interesting moves are all right. Inflation is one of those drivers that is a convenient scapegoat when the overnight equity price action is poor, but in this case it looks like the culpability is actually true.

The notable feature on monday's trading has been the evisceration of short-term interest rate contracts with december 22. Futures down about 6.5 basis, points uh. This is not stuff of happy clappy equity price action at the best of times, but particularly when it implies that central banks might have to rate hikes because they have to not because they want to hmm all right. Well, we'll see how things end up going for these central bankers all right.

We got three minutes opening belts. Take a look at uh, jim cramer's got anything exciting to say, talk about adam aaron, the ceo. You wanted numbers here, numbers really encouraging numbers, and yes, he is showing you some numbers that showed you that they are finally on the rebound back to where they uh, where they were in february 2020. Some 20 months ago, domestic industry boxer was closing more than 300 million uh biggest total.

You know couple days uh weekend, numbers are just extraordinary they're on the rebound october's been very, very strong yeah. So uh he's talking about adam aaron here from uh amc, i'm interested to see if we saw any uh tweet from him. Let's see here, uh, oh yeah, praise be october, praise be when this is like uh uh. Oh, what's that show called uh? May the lord open right: what is it um uh, the women wearing the the red? Why can i not think of this right now now, whatever somebody reminded, but anyway october movie, ticket sale results show.

Cinemas are finally on the rebound first. Two weeks of october quote domestic industry box office. Grosses are more than 300 million and biggest 14 day total. Since february of 2020.

nice handmaid's tales there we go. Thank you yeah. That's awesome, um. What good yeah i don't know.

Every time i go to movie theater. It still feels a little empty, but if the numbers are going up, the numbers are going up. I like it all right, so we are we're getting a little bit of a rebound on ethereum right now. Let's go ahead and jump on in here.

Yeah there you go see this uh, you see this bounce off of about 36.75. This is on the minute chart here. If i go out to about the 30 minute chart, we could see we previously hit about 36.52 as a low here, and i just said about 36.75 now rotating back up through this resistance line. Here at just about 37.60, all right, we are now getting really close.

30 seconds to the bell: dq back to 65. tesla's over one percent - let's see if it lasts on the open uh, it is having a beautiful, beautiful trend rally here. I wonder if we're going to get above that 880 level, but anyway look at this and it's setting up for a nice open and then yeah we'll see what's going on with the firm and some of these others as well. Actually, let's do a quick look.

We got a few seconds here, a firm, oh, a firm's, going doing a similar rally, let's see if it lasts. Here we go. Let's get the bell whoa and a sip of coffee. Let's get to the opening and the cnbc real time exchange.

The big board is avid celebrating its health sciences and nutrition. That's like 80 plus percent red, but yet what do you have here? A firm is green, candling, very nice about tesla. It is also trying to green candle. Oh my gosh.

It went to 854 for a second there. A firm went positive, macy's nice, big green candlestick, here uh roblox up nice corsair gaming, trying to figure its life out at up about a third right. Now, let's get rid of the pre-market over here. Let's get rid of this there we go.

Let's see the changes. Volatility is sitting about nine percent right now. Hmm we've got uh camber up 3.2 tesla now 1.5. Oh my gosh tesla's rallying right now it is at 8 55 right now.

Uh we've got. I wonder how tesla's volatility has been uh i mean lately, it's been, i know it's been pretty low, but the last three days it started rotating up. Let's see here, hbg. Okay, so i mean this is crazy.

Tesla just hit 858, but it is back to 855 right now, uh 857. Now it's got a lot of attention here and so does a firm, uh gosh. It's so weird because i made the comparisons on the channel that a firm is the uh, the tesla fintech, and then a lot of people got mad at me and they're like yeah, you, you don't compare tesha, okay, uh space, uh or virgin galactic down 19.1 percent Redfin down 3.9 percent uh yeah, the other uh, the other real estate firms, not cheering the zillow exiting the market, actually a lot of concern being expressed for the others here, coinbase down 1.9, so uh owlette actually turned negative 1.8, really still waiting for that fda catalyst. For them that might take another couple months: bitcoin, let's see here, shift apple um, a lot of middle middle of the road moves here, like corsair down point six percent lemonade down about point four percent: lululemon airbnb, these guys down about a third.

A lot of things are down, but not terribly down at sea dave and buster's down a tenth of a percent big deal, so things aren't super devastating, but we do have uh the uh indices down dow jones about point five. Three s p down point four: one nasdaq down point three: still waiting for the russ and uh: let's see here, macy's 3.4 tesla's really sitting around that 857 kind of holding on to that 857 right now, a firm and a docusign up. Similarly, here from about 1.34 docusign 1.21 lucid146 win resorts 1 and phase 0.62 to the upside, it's at 174 right now, nice etsy etsy just went green to 0.41 and peloton's flat. Okay, canoes down 2.4 matterport down 1.43 squares, actually down a firm broke apart from square again all right.

Let's go see what we've got in terms of some headlines. Yeah tesla's volatility is starting to go back up good for those options. Uh, if you've got options in them and uh, let's see what other headlines we have here all right. Well, let's close some of the other things that we looked at together go back to bloom.

All right, yeah upstart got downgraded. Colin powell died. 84.. Hmm schumer nears make it or break it moment with biden agenda yeah no kidding if they're actually going to get these deals through.

It would be amazing there we go get rid of that ad. All right. Let's see what we got so senate majority leader chuck schumer, faces staggering policy challenges. Yeah no kidding schumer has set an end of the month deadline to break a deadlock between a democrat.

Actually, amongst democrats, yeah good luck, pretty split the dem party right now, which doesn't surprise me well. Nancy pelosi also has to manage party divisions on biden's plan. Schumer must deal with mcconnell and republicans minorities that can throw roadblocks in front of the rest of the democratic agenda. From here on, it's only going to get more difficult, geez.

Well, it's already been pretty hard yeah. The country did not give democrats a big majority. I mean it was a very, very, very short, leash, all right. China, property and energy crisis deliver blow to gdp earth well duh.

This is what we were saying earlier when, when the numbers came in low, it's like well yeah. Of course, numbers are going to come in low for gdp growth when you've got the ever grand crisis. I mean i don't know why that that seems like a surprise to the market. It's very odd.

Volvo is looking to raise 2.9 billion in a stockholm ipo, a test for the automaker, hmm yeah, a n k, r coin. I don't know what the heck that is, here's a 10. What is this? What are your thoughts on the stronghold digital mining? Ipo? Well, golly. I didn't have any thoughts, but now that you're asking me stronghold digital mining inc, that's a decent, ticker yeah! So pending listing huh, i look at security description.

It literally says n a uh yeah. I have no idea. I i'm not a big fan of ipos, but uh yeah they're gon na offer 5.88 million shares looking at pricing between 16 to 18.. Is that happening today or when does this sing an ipo well, who else but uh yeah? I like owning crypto direct over the miners.

If i, if i wanted options, i'd probably go for michael saylor's, micro strat, so you're paying a big premium in my opinion for the miners themselves, don't get me wrong. They've done very well and in some cases they're actually outpaced. Crypto gains certainly when they get super super oversold like when they're, when they're bitcoin pain times. Oh that's when the miners just get way oversold so uh anyway.

Ooh. Look at that a firm now up 2.3, but yeah that'd be something to look more into d r d c r, rc they're a spack with talking about solid state batteries. Ooh sounds like another quantum escape. I know solid state batteries.

I think still have a ways to go, but uh it'd be interesting to keep an eye on it's, not battery tech, isn't something that i'm ready to invest in yet, especially the solid state stuff. I just think it's too early too early. If somebody actually gets something that functions, that'll be interesting, look at point, zillow down percent and upstart. Finally, uh having a little bit of uh a reality check down six point: five percent, not that i'm cheering people potentially losing money.

I mean the thing has done so amazing, but it's just been. It's been such a strong mover that uh and its valuation has continued to get stretchy and stretchy and stretching there's so many traders in it. I've been wondering when we were going to see a little bit of pressure to the downside on it, just to give folks an opportunity to buy again my goodness that tattooed chef sitting at 1730 plummeting like a rock. I guess people are done with the frozen foods.

Uh cheesecake cheesecake down 1.71, some of the um, let's open hold on there we go some of the recovery stocks have honestly been confusing me a little bit uh yeah. Look at this cheat cheesecake's heading to its august, lowe's, which i wonder if that means dave and buster's is as well, because if cheesecake and dave and busters get to these august lows, they could be buying ops again, you know so dave and buster's, for example. Right now is at 36.86, they got to 3096 and we've kind of been trending in that direction. So similar here with cake, you look at cake and you're at 40, 72 as a low and we're at 42.50 right now so uh.

Some of these are definitely revisiting or we're on the trend two revisiting a uh december low. It could be very interesting how that evolves, oh which, by the way in 11 days, because there's been so much inflation. The price goes up for the amazing programs on building your wealth. I've got a lot of alerts coming out because i've got to work on selling calls and actually selling some shares, because i want to pay down some of that margin.

So if you're interested in buy sell alerts, uh either on crypto or stocks, make sure to check out the stocks and psychology and money program along with the lectures that links down below and of course, you can get up to seventy dollars for free by going to Mechanic.Com public mackevin.com public you get up to 70 totally for free by signing up and they'll, give you one absolutely free stock. Look at this end phase. Let's go end phase 2.5 sitting at 177; a firm just broke 150 again sitting up two point: almost one percent, very very nice uh good moves here: lucids up 3.6 tesla. Oh my gosh tesla's up almost two percent right here.

What a run this one's having! I think we're going to break right through 880 here and we've got a uh. We've got a support line about 880. uh after 880 uh. You should see a breakthrough right through that.

The next test is going to be 904 and if we break through 904 uh tesla's going to be very interesting to watch yeah, you know it's uh, it's pretty incredible. We'll see i mean we've got earnings coming up on the 20th, which is wednesday for tesla. That's gon na be pretty big day for tesla, but uh. There could be a lot of excitement between now and then i mean you've got today.

You got tomorrow. You got wednesday day-to-day uh. It's gon na be fascinating. A lot of tech just ripping right.

Now, though, uh attacking higher valves like uh neo one point five, one percent x being up at one point: five, one docusigns up one point: five, nine, very nice. It's interesting how facebook's up, but google and apple are down pound tears. Taking a percent feels, like things, are getting a little bit more green here, intraday, let's look at the spy, see if we've gone green, yet no still down 0.47 and the movement intraday on the spy has actually been negative, yeah kind of rotated down a little bit Here on the spy not so exciting and disney down 2.5, all right, so curl, looking at other news here, yeah else, it's doing well, it's crazy all right! Looking at top news, okay, we talked about factory output, uh hedge funds, hedge funds. At s p, 500 bets says retail still wary silo tumbles saw that bitcoin uh.

Let's see that's boring um, that's that's uh! Okay. We saw that all right, yeah, we kind of covered a lot of the bloomberg news. Let's go back to barons, see what we got over here and uh. Oh, we can also see they've done this in a while.

No no they're, a commercial okay, jerks all right! So, let's see okay, we saw this with the china growth slipping. Okay, tech earnings will be dominated by shortage. Talk. Investors.

Beware! Well! Uh! It's gon na be very interesting to see how earnings are in fact. This week we have 72 companies reporting earnings for what it's worth. 72 companies are reporting today, i'm sorry, not today, this week this morning we had albertsons, but this afternoon we're gon na get steel dynamics and pack west bank corp science yeah. Today's not going to be a very fun earnings day.

Tomorrow's going to be interesting tomorrow before the bell you're going to have johnson and johnson bank of new york mellon procter gamble halliburton. Those will be interesting for inflation after hours you have tomorrow, netflix united airlines wd-40. I always think it's interesting that wd-40 is is actually a company. Like i mean i know it's a company, but i always thought it was like a product of another company, but it's it's uh yeah they're their own uh.

So then, wednesday morning we got verizon anthem and after hours on wednesday, the big one, obviously tesla ibm las vegas sands hp, kinder morgan thursday, a t southwest airlines, ally financial, snap, intel, chipotle, boston, beer whirlpool will be interesting. Mattel, those are your inflation uh supply issue stocks right there. So all right, oh that's, going to be fascinating all right. What do we got over here? So tech earnings will be dominated by shortage talk? Yeah, i mean people by the way.

The biggest thing folks are looking for right now in tesla earnings is uh is is margin specifically because of those inflation fears. Jp morgan expects bank of england to raise rates by 15 basis points in november and then 25 basis points in february and august wow. That is now an expectation of a rate increase in the united kingdom this year, folks this year for a rate increase by the bank of england per jp morgan. I wonder how that's going to affect the yields.

See yields now we're at 1.62. Now, on the 10-year, i do wonder if we're going to get a little movement here on the day chart zoom in all right, yeah, yeah yeah! Look at that! Look at that! You get a little jump right here, immediate jump on the 10-year yield in america. After this jp morgan call that we're potentially expecting a rate increase this year by the bank of england yikes all right, we got uh, let's see here, hmm, how easy would this be for me, okay, i've been meaning to try to do this because i think it'll Be interesting, let me see here, can i just do this and then i want to read that article okay, let me see if i can there, we go, give them a listen here, yeah, but i'd. Can you hear that when i do that? Okay, like can you hear them as long as they're uh, not paused uh, just give me a little heads up there yeah.

I just want to see if we test that really quick to see. If you all can hear that i mean i can hear it but uh, i don't know no sound yeah. That's what i thought. Okay, i was worried about that that it's not putting sound in separately.

Okay, thank you for that. So i have to work on that. Darn it that's all right, i'll figure it out. Thank you all right, so uh all right 10 year is not actually pumping too terribly much.

So we had an initial kind of reaction of a pump up. Then a little bit of a decline there a little bit of a pullback. So then, let's see this article here, tech earnings will be dominated by shortage. Talk.

Investors! Beware! All right! If tech earning season is upon us and this time, the story is all about the sum of the parts or the lack thereof. Current shortage of components, finished goods, manufacturing capacity and affordable shipping options will likely be addressed on every tech. Earnings call well yeah more than a few companies are going to post disappointing results, some investors will sell, bargains will be created. Oh my gosh wow uh, you have uh, you have um some real uh, some real potential drama according to barons over here.

Let's see here try this all right. This past week, apple shares wobbled after bloomberg, reported appalache, slash, production of the iphone 13 and uh thanks to tight supplies from various chips, from both texas instruments and broadcom. No quick solutions for bottlenecks, electronic manufacturers in vietnam, malaysia and the philippines have reduced output in the face of strict workplace and travel rules tied to the pandemic, and then there are shipping costs. Costs for air, rail and sea have soared that all means higher costs, leaving manufacturers and retailers with an unpleasant choice, absorb the costs which lowers margins or raise prices and make those customers pay more yeah.

I like that one, as as any stock investor would say, not uh, not an actual consumer in apple's case, tighter iphone supply could still impact short-term financial results and we're likely to see estimates come down by the time. The company reports all right, we'll see any supply shortage, just pushes iphone sales into future quarters. That's probably also true. Long-Term damage to apple is likely to be zero in a full year of merger activity.

One of the strangest developments was the recent collapse of zoom's agreement to buy five nine fast-growing provider of cloud-based call center software, interesting transaction fell through and zoom shares proceeded to fall, 25 ouch all right. Let's see here. This is all about five, nine after that. Okay: let's go take a look at the the sticks.

Again, volatility still sitting at about 1.28 fuel cell is really what's taken off today. Look at this gap up it's sort of this weird limitation showing up here by uh. What's it called uh weeble here sort of capping these uh some of these shares there i've seen this a few times now all right, let's see if we can do another here, no, no, all right! So if we wanted bloomberg, looks like he can now, pull it like this he's spending out of dc yields will be pressured by that supply and we're not gon na get that bang for the buck that we need. It's not one thing.

We know, though pete the supply is going to drop off a little bit just as tapering begins yeah, so i think those two will balance out each a little bit, but i am concerned that everything's just too you know um, okay with where yields are. Having said that, one thing we have not talked about in this you know half hour today is what happens if yields go lower? I think the real big risk of the economy is something that really gives us a growth scare where yields go much lower because we're not going to get that global growth and if that happens, it's going to be led by china. So i think we've got to keep watching china and what's going on there and that's why we need the infrastructure spending here to offset the slowdown from china all it would take to talk about, but that infrastructure spending is not going to affect our economy for a While i'm shocked by that that's going to be a minute before we see that anyway, oh my gosh, look at dutch bros, just out of nowhere, runs up 6.6 whoa good job dutch bros. I mean this is the stock.

You cannot stop. Look at that. We are running back to that 62 all-time high on on dutch bros sitting at 54.83. Folks, look at a firm, oh my gosh.

A firm 150 just hit a high of 152. that might be an all-time high hold on a sec. No, we did hit a high of 153.49 two days ago, two trading days ago. We are now sitting at 151.74 up 3.3 on a firm.

Let's go and end phase and phase topping 177 now nice and tesla's up 2 860 on tesla. Oh snap, is you can't you, like? You can't bet against this market right now? It's insane neo one point: five nine percent so far even went green. That's crazy! So far went green, neo, green docusign, 159. Here at c144.

Let's look at the spy, see how the indices are pulling. Oh yeah spy just gapped up. It's only down point two: two right now: it's incredible very! Very nice! Yeah still to the downside, though, ooh zillow down 11 now oh redfin, down 4.35 big oops on the real estate stocks. Oh yeah yeah! It's getting hammered aetherium sitting at 37.91, it's better than where we sat this morning.

Frozen food aisle still getting screwed. Yes, people don't care about snacks, coming for tattooed chef, dave and busters 1.46, so tempted to see this thing just go down, so i can. I could buy it at thirty dollars again. Uh, i'm i'm hoping fingers crossed.

Wayfair has been having a rough time breaking apart from 240 sitting at 1.37 right now, really struggling to get over 240 and it used to be the one that i mean consistently for months, would just keep bouncing back to uh 300 matterport right now down 0.64, but Recovering, let's look at the minute chart on matterport. It looks like it's coming up again: yeah, that's a little tough to tell here the chart looks a little messed up: apple 0.48, gosh apple, half percent, the downside that is recovering intraday, though squarespace all right. So, let's see here, what's the m live say: m live bank reserve releases may be inflating the s p 500 views another quarter of big reserve releases. At top, banks may once again be skewing sentiment about the broader market.

In general, when reported earnings beat consensus, estimate. There's a correlation between the s p, 500 performance bank earnings per share beat this quarter, topping misses while they account for disproportionately a large amount of the indexes earnings per share. Financials make up eleven percent of sp. Why uh by weight? But twenty percent of the eps? Okay, this could be good news for stocks across the board.

However, those bank beats may also be reflecting the large amounts that have been previously set aside for souring loans. Take jp morgan, for example, the bank reported third quarter recovery, credit losses of 1.5 billion versus an estimate of 17.9 billion uh yeah. I mean they're making the argument here that banks uh set so much money aside for losses during the pandemic that and they wrote those off and are now taking those back recognizing them as earnings and potentially artificially inflating how well the market's doing to start off earnings Season, they're, basically trying to show throw shade at earnings season right now. You know i don't know how i feel about that.

Just don't know how i feel about that all right! Oh that's, cnbc! All right! What do you got over here? Let's listen! So we're trying to figure out what's happened to zillow zillow said that they're not going to be uh they're on hold for their home buying project. Remember zillow changes model uh and they do more than just more than just brewery. And what's my price of my house and they've been buying that acquired 3 800 homes in the second quarter, so the question is: are they pausing because of some technical problems? Are they pausing? Because how much inventory do you really want to carry if housing, like our friend, ivy zellman, says who was on this weekend? Really the dean of the group uh is peaking. So i thought that this was a very important call because if zillow says says it's just technical fine.

But if it's worried about inventory, then maybe that 22 up housing last year 60 supposed to be up next year. Maybe it's time to rethink the housing as the greatest story ever told uh that that would have big implications for the builders uh. Leave it to jim cramer, to say it's time to rethink the housing sector while uh zillow's down 11. Don't worry, don't worry, he'll be interested in housing again as soon as it's green but uh yeah.

I do see uh cloudflare by the way this is uh. Just an incredible uh play on uh cyber sack uh. I uh i had this one. This was one of the ones that i was wanting to enter around the time i entered uh a firm.

Sadly, i didn't load up on both i i picked a firm which is done phenomenally as well, but boy cloudflare has just been killing. It here expected to go profitable in 2023 uh trading with negative net revenue right now of uh about 36 million in 2021 estimated expecting in 2024, though, to really have some explosive growth to get to 1.6 billion in revenue. That's almost 3x, where we sit now so the next few years are going to be some big old growth really impossible to do any kind of forward p e calculation. On this we don't have any net negs uh or uh net revenue or net income numbers for 2024 or five at least projections wise, but yeah it's it is.

It has been on a run with the tech rally here: iphone 13s as christmas gifts, yeah. Good luck! Getting them right now, i wonder how far the iphones are booking out right now. If we were to try to get one, i always like using that as sort of a way to gauge demand and inventory. So if i go right now, oh we'll be right back we're making updates the apple store check back soon.

I can't can't look at the inventory if they're gon na make updates. Did the nasdaq tech just go green nice, let's see here all right and oh yeah, look at that volatility. Falling nasdaq goes green s. P! 500 is ready to go green and dow jones industrial.

Only down 0.3 was down a lot more a little bit ago here. Mr mcconnell has told colleagues that he is concerned with mr trump's campaign to relitigate the 2020 election and could depress confidence amongst republican voters. Ooh, okay, uh. Let's see here, uh okay.

Here we go really. I have a tesla service by the way and uh, it's very, very cool. I had a little notification that my 12 volt battery needs to be replaced. So i opened up my app and uh it immediately uh popped up as uh, something that uh that i could just click on my phone and schedule a mobile service.

For so i clicked like two buttons and it's like cool you're scheduled for tomorrow for your battery to be replaced the 12-volt small one and uh. Now they sent me an estimate and it says: zero dollars, i'm shocked. Why would they not charge me for that? I don't know, but anyway your technician will arrive between 11 30 and 4.. That's cool all right i'll take it is bitcoin pumping.

Let's go! Take a look at the coins. Let's see here 61.5 on btc ethereum, 3789 cardano 214 and dogecoin 25 cents there we go all right. Looking at cloudflare, three percent, three percent on a firm end phase is almost three percent a little bit of a relaxation there for a moment. Still two percent, though, on tesla very good, very, very, very good.

I like see these are the times where i just like watching the green just watch, the green. Don't do anything, let's listen over here for a moment. You can see that with the five-year up by about three basis, points the knock-on effect to the equity market, though still relatively muted, the s p, only down one-tenth of one percent and the cyclicals are the ones. No surprise that are outperforming.

You have energy. You have consumer discretionary and you have financials as well oil still higher that really help them to propel that part of the index higher. What's so interesting guy and i'm sure we'll get to this over the next couple hours is what's happening in the cable rate. You may have a rate flying higher over in the uk, but you do not have that within sterling.

The cable market, for example, not showing that down one tenth of one percent, we'll discuss what that means policy mistake. How do we interpret something like that? It's really interesting because what we are essentially seeing is the market saying you know what we're in a position where we think both fiscal tightening and monetary timing may actually have a negative effect on the market. It's gon na be interesting. If we don't see progress in dc, could the us be seeing the same thing as well? The fiscal goes away, the monetary gets tightened uh, we are getting data out of the housing market.

We saw industrial data that was a little weaker earlier on alex now we're getting data from the housing market which has been rolling over recently and is now starting to show signs of life, so the national association of home builders housing market index. This is october data, so this is relatively new uh. This is a good read on what is happening: pops back up to 80. uh.

It was projected to fall from 76 to 75, but we've got better numbers, so maybe signs of life in the housing market. We'll talk about the housing market a little bit later on the program in a little bit more detail, yeah with breaking down the likes of what we're seeing uh from zillow there housing people getting excited again. I love it. Love it love, it lovely love, it love! It love it all right, well, very exciting market.

Look at that loose hit. 4.2 percent. Oh my gosh end phase just kicked butt. Now it's up three point: four percent here on end phase: oh i love it.

I love it good job and phase one of my biggest holdings, uh and phase three point: three: six percent right now and phase: don't care about no supply shortages and a firm sitting at 151? Really really really nice sofa is almost 20 bucks. Let's go. This is amazing, jeez see these. These are.

This is why we buy the dip. Oh wow etsy, now over 225. That's my hard stop for nibbling on etsy, oh wow. I i really think - and i think it's such an a fascinating argument, but there's talk about etsy.

Being very very exciting for the holiday season, because if there are supply shortages and delays, people can just buy stuff out of other people's garages. Aka etsy, i love it, love it love it. Simon property group up one point: four: nine percent, nice: seven property groups - that's almost pre-pandemic highs; well, maybe not pre-pandemic highs, but pre-pandemic prices uh! Oh, i love cardano yeah. I see your comment there andrew that's.

Why cardano's a big chunk of the portfolio uh neo 1.56? Looking at the downside here, let's go to the other side: yeah, it's just still zillow's getting destroyed carnival. Why is carnival down through? Why are some of the recoveries falling? I don't understand why why? Why is carnival down? I don't own any, but i'm curious carnival. There's! No news: there's nothing, there's literally nothing 3.15 percent on carnival. Why? What an upwork? I don't understand some of these sheep, 27 uh, but yeah, that's uh! That's interesting! Hey! Are we ever going to see carnival oh karma kind of breaking that trend line? Look at that see we had this trend line drawn over here of increasing prices, and we've now broken that trend line.

What, if we're going to come back under 20., i'm waiting for some of these recovery stocks to sell off more, i mean i don't know why. They're selling off but i'll tell you i will take it. The corsair is still down 1.53 here all right. Let's look at the upside here all right, lucid 4.69 yeah! This has been pretty stable on this side.

Here, a firm tesla end phase. These guys have all just been kicking, butt and they've been holding nicely all right. What's bloomberg, intelligence got to say to us? What are you at we're going to be looking for? Is sub 4 gdp growth in the fourth quarter of this year. That should take full year gdp growth just around about six percent, which is fine, but you know we're looking for the pvoc to come in we're expecting a 50-bit triple r cut, but not i mean it's if we may be waiting for godot at that point.

Yeah. This by the way, good point right here, uh golden hammer, hd says in the comments: it's just a rotation and attack. You might be exactly right about that very, very uh, very correct on that. I believe it's that uh people are becoming more accepting of uh sitting at higher inflation levels and uh.

Honestly, like we had a conversation last week, we're like we were asking each other we're like hey. So what?.