Everyone me kevin here - oh my goodness, folks, tesla and lucid are absolutely positively destroying it, and it is really great news for the ev sector and here's the thing folks. The eevee sector has been in the doldrums. It's been in the trash, it's been in the toilet for a very long period of time. Throughout 2021, we had a run-up up to february.

This is where we saw some real highs at the end of january, beginning of february saw some real highs. Wasn't until the bloomberg terminal told us quote, pray and then all of a sudden we saw tech stocks plummet, evs fell out of favor, massive fear, uncertainty and doubt about electric vehicle adoption. Are there going to be credits or the companies only profitable because of credits, blah blah blah all this fud that created the biggest buying opportunity? I think we will have ever seen for electric vehicles, folks that was february through about june, for a lot of these companies. Lucid motors, as recently as september, 1st was trading for 17.79 profitably sold a bunch of put contracts to farm as much yield as i could, while volatility was spiking and some of these stocks fell to record lows intra year now we are in a totally different place.

Lucid is kicking butt; today it is up. 30. Lucid stock is up 60 in the last six months, tesla stock. Only up about three percent within the well today, not a whole 30 percent, but over the last six months.

Also up 60 percent. Compare the two trends and they're almost the same. This is very important and it makes sense why we're seeing tesla lead the pack and then other evs catch up. So if tesla moves expect moves in the other evs micro vision move today on hopes that lighter will take a bigger role in uh car tech.

Neo's been up not as high as some of uh. Some of the gains that we've seen on lucid and tesla here, neo really only moving from lows of around 30 31 to about 40, where it is now so neo in my opinion, still has some room to run to kind of be with the curve here. What i like doing by the way to see this and then we're going to get into some news on tesla we're going to look at valuation for tesla we're going to do something similar with lucid, but a little bit more abstract. We'll talk about that! What i like doing a lot is typing into google finance.google.com.

This is like your raw simple, like the most kind of simple stock platform, you could really look at because it's not really a stock platform. It's not like you go on to google and trade and really what you're wanting to do is you're wanting to go in there and type in one stock. Then you hit compare two on the bottom. So i'll show you exactly how this works.

You pull it up. You jump on in and we're going to click on tesla right here, we'll throw up tesla, then we're going to jump to compare 2 and we're going to compare the tesla trajectory to lucid l-sit, obviously, as the ticker symbol, lucid motors, by the way lucid motors, the First non-tesla public ev play that is pure electric. I think that's really cool. I know rivian's coming up with their ipo.

That's going to be a big one. We're gon na be watching that very closely, but let's throw in neo. Why don't we also throw in uh for comparison, sakes, uh, fisker and uh? And, of course you could play with this, but you may as well just throw in fisker and why not also throw in uh not not like ford or some of the legacy automakers i mean, i suppose you could you know what we'll throw in ford for the Gigs, okay: there we go so uh, tesla kind of skews the graph here, a little bit, let's go back to six months and what we're really looking for there we go. This is a lot better now we're based on percentages rather than dollar values.

That's very important! So look at this folks over the last six months. I'm actually glad i put ford in here uh ford, up 49 tesla and lucid tied at 60 percent. Look at that neo a measly 4.62 neos lagging big time, and i don't think it's because they're not producing and selling. Actually, i think neos are doing very well exceptionally well, let's throw an x-ping just to compare.

They did just announce the potential for a flying car. A car that could convert uh to also be a flying car yeah, look at that six months, x-ping's up 51. So if you're looking for a lagger to invest in neo, what are you doing? My friend? Let's get you back to like 55 60, so you can catch up to the others here, but everybody else is taking off. Obviously this is a sectoral shift right, eevee's, really hot going into the beginning of the year start of the biden administration, people thinking.

Oh, my gosh. These things are going to go to the moon. Let's go year to date. Let's take a look at this.

This will show this a lot better. There we go yeah. Look at this start of the year. Oh my gosh everything's, going to go to the moon.

Lucid, has its insane momentum squeeze. It was crazy everything really chilled out, though in march april may june i mean this was buying season. We made videos and i sent alerts in the stocks and psychology of money program, which is a coupon code, expiring tomorrow by the way check that out. But i remember sending alerts saying folks.

This is going to be like 2021 we're going to look back at this and go wow wish. I bought more of this ev dip, because all the eevee was just sucking together. It didn't even matter which company just anything electric vehicle related sucked in may june. There was so much fun around batteries, this that or the other uh, and now we're really seeing that trend pick up again here at the end of the year and it's being led by tesla, which is obviously absolutely incredible.

It certainly helps that we've already we've already talked about this, but there's some new details. Hertz is purchasing up to 100 000 tesla vehicles as part of their rental car company. This by the way, is four months after emerging from bankruptcy and they well. They announced that they're going to purchase 100 000 teslas, apparently 50 000 of these are going to be allocated to uber.

So that way individuals could rent a vehicles uh from uber on sort of a weekly basis. I want to say with something like 350 here: it is tesla. Rentals will start at 334 a week, but they plan to bring prices under 300 a week. Uber drivers are only eligible for tesla rentals.

If they've completed a certain amount of trips 150 and have a certain star rating 4.7, so uh i mean gus that this is actually a motivation for uber employees to be the or not employees uber workers to be the best workers. They can be uh. But this is sort of the more old news that basically uber drivers will be able to rent tesla's from hertz the car rental company coming out of bankruptcy. The ceo, by the way of hertz, got fired from ford for not being innovative enough and now he's innovating.

Like crazy in the rental industry, really incredible job like very, very smart job, it hurts, but anyway uh. The cool thing is there's actually more news that came out of this. Not only is hertz planning on installing thousands of electric vehicle chargers, which may also help them qual them qualify for tax credits somewhere around potentially 30 of a tax credit for the amount of money that you spend investing in charging stations. This is something that we're expecting as part of our infrastructure package, so we'll see exactly what's meant by the terms of these bills once they actually pass and we get interpretations so that's to be determined, but it's possible that uh hertz will actually be buying more vehicles.

In fact, their ceo went on an interview and said: if demand is high, they will order another 100 000 teslas. This means now we're learning that the hertz tesla deal that was announced of a hundred thousand vehicles might actually end up doubling by the way it's worth. Noting that this does not even include uh revenue for tesla, yet for full self-driving hertz is not buying the full self-driving uh service for the vehicle they're spending about forty two thousand dollars per uh. However, in the future, it's expected that uh hurts might end up.

Not only using tesla insurance to insure these vehicles, we'll see it gets into commercial insurance and commercial underwriting, so a little bit more complicating, but uh huge, huge potential there. We also know that the teslas are now effectively for her. It's the same price as a toyota. Camry or honda accord, which is absolutely incredible.

This is also the largest ev order ever the hundred thousand, this all helped tesla move up, but now we're hearing that this order could potentially double. If demand is right for these cars - and so far, i could tell you it looks like demand - is hot for these cars. Uber drivers want to rent teslas. That means they don't have to go out and buy a car.

They could rent a car and uh and essentially have a very nice luxury style vehicle that doesn't cost a lot to charge or maintain and uh boom. You know you're able to make money as an uber driver now uh. We also know that hertz is offloading a bunch of old rental vehicles from their fleet and they signed a deal with carvana to sell those vehicles. This is a good testament by the way to the uh online buyers for vehicles shift carvana vroom.

I think this is great. Hertz is really trying to just go innovative in every direction, how they're selling their cars, how they are purchasing the cars from tesla, the upside to them, potentially purchasing more teslas. This is very, very exciting, so uh. What i want to do now is just kind of take a peek here at our tesla spreadsheet, so i like stupid, trolls online uh.

I always like to make fun of my tesla spreadsheet and then yet it always seems to be right. So whatever i mean, people can make fun of you all day long, but i just want to refer to this here for a moment. So this is my 2025 sheet. I keep kind of reverting back to this anytime.

I make modifications, and what's so incredible that i really want to show you right now about tesla and really helps to reiterate why tesla is doing so well right now is the impact that a margin improvement makes to the potential future stock price of tesla. So let's say we're selling vehicles in 2025 for forty thousand dollars a vehicle, that's way less than the forty nine thousand six hundred dollars we're selling vehicles for right now. But that's because we're in the future expecting maybe a twenty five thousand dollar vehicle. We're gon na be selling cars in india at a potential gigafactory in india.

Obviously the germany and shanghai facilities will be expanding great right. So what we're going to do here is let's just go ahead and kill energy for a moment. Let's keep insurance at zero. I generally set that to zero.

I'm gon na put robo taxis to zero by the way this hurts deal kind of implies that hertz might be open to uh. You know taking advantage of full self driving when it comes out and if we have robo taxis. Hertz might actually be the biggest provider of robo taxis outside of consumers via tesla. How cool is that and keep in mind that lyft and uber sold off their self-driving divisions? They gave up on the project yeah that's good for tesla but anyway.

So what i really want to show you here is take a look at this right now. I have this projection of a reasonable price target of, in my opinion, 1700 for tesla. This feels really low. Now, when i did, the spreadsheet tesla was trading for anywhere between 550 to 800 and back when this was 550.

When i was buying more tesla shares that to me worked out to about a 25 annual compounded rate of return. That's every year boom boom boom boom. That annualized compounded rate of return right or annual compounded rate of return. Well now, when tesla went to 800, that would drop my return to about 16 percent now, with tesla sitting at uh we're about 10 80 right now.

What are we after hours 1085, that compounded annual rate of return only goes to about 9.61, so it actually makes tesla feel less attractive as an investment, because it's run so much right now, uh. The one thing that i do want to mention is that the good news is this: this tax rate increasing here is not potentially not expected to go up, we're expecting to stay at uh. I put this at about an effective corporate tax rate of about 22 percent. Here, uh we're not expecting a corporate tax rate to go up under biden's plans, so this is excellent.

This is good news and what i do want to change, though, is margin. I think that i did not think 30 was going to be realistic, but we just hit 30 with credits. I think we're going to be at 30 gross vehicle margin by 2025 without credits. So just so you know: that's if you manufacture a vehicle, you sell it for a hundred thousand dollars.

It means you're keeping thirty thousand dollars. That's before you get to like general administration, uh, whatever right so input costs so profits, minus input, costs and employees per vehicle. Keeping about 30 grand a vehicle on that example right, and so, but i'm running the spreadsheet at 28. That was my projection back when we were like 22.

So i kind of really have to update this, and if i drop this just two, if i bump this two percent here we're at 1760 stock price, if i hit enter this is going to move, and this is going to. Let us know how much this stock should move based on that margin. Moving about two percent, let's hit it. Okay drop something dumpster back up here.

Look at that 1987 folks, a marginal improvement is a massive massive boon for tesla. So let me undo that again here 1716 is our current number. So let's save that, let's again change that margin to 70 uh expense margin, 70, profit margin, 30 gross. That changes this uh future star value to 1987., divide that by 1716..

That's about a reflective of a seven a sixteen percent increase in the stock uh justified solely because of the marginal improvement and uh from about uh. When we reported earnings, let me see quickly when tesla earnings was so. It was like to compare tesla earnings. I know it was last week, but i can't remember the date for the life of me.

So tesla earnings happened on october 20th, okay, good so october, 20th and since october 20th, tesla stock has gone uh up 24. So, in my opinion, with the stock going up 24.4 percent, it's actually gone up a little bit. More than margin justifies, but that's probably because you have a lot of bears, who are finally realizing dang. Okay, this is realistic.

So that's why you're getting a little bit of this over correction to the upside? This does not mean that i think that tesla's going to keep running, but it certainly means that i'm not going to buy tesla at these levels. It's just not going to happen so now. Let's talk briefly about lucid, okay, so we're expecting to potentially deliver somewhere around here. Let's, let's do this together.

I do not have a full spreadsheet on lucid because we don't actually have a quarter of earnings with vehicle deliveries. Actually happening, but what do we know? So? We've got lucid reservations right now at about 13 000. This is for the lucid air, i'm actually one of the people. That has a reservation for one, but i still have not had an opportunity to test drive, one of them which is really frustrating, especially since other, like car review.

People are able to to review these things, and i know i'm not a car reviewer or a strong crew and uh it like i'm, not asking for special treatment. But you know some: some equal treatment would be nice, but anyway uh i haven't been able to test drive the thing, even though i actually have a pre-order. Unlike a lot of other individuals, i feel like who don't have a pre-order getting a chance to review the darn thing, i kind of feel a little left out. Okay, so anyway, apparently there's a delivery event.

Uh this uh this saturday for the first deliveries of the lucid. It's worth noting that lucid expects to deliver about 20, i'm sorry to 1 000 vehicles this year that works out to uh in the last uh. What four months of this year that works out to a production rate of about 250 vehicles per month that they're producing right now and peter rollinson has been very clear like we're not at a ramp stage right now, i'll tell you this i'll, be very clear with This they are praying that nothing goes wrong. Okay, that's what they're praying for.

They are praying, praying praying praying that they can get these vehicles off the line delivered to customers and there's no bad press about people going my car's a lemon, my car's, not working. Oh, my gosh, like the next three weeks, are going to be very, very critical for lucid because here's the thing first, my guess, is that lucid has a lot of momentum right now, because these deliveries are coming. We might see by the rumor, sell the news, but then guess what? If we get one bad piece of news about the cars not being good about a quality issue about a safety issue about a crash about a fire? This is a car. Okay, like they're gon na be crashes, you get one bad piece of news, and people are going to rail on this company and this thing will have a big self.

Now i don't think that's going to be justified. Okay, i don't want to sound like i'm like fudding lucid here. I'm just saying be prepared that when a stock moves on momentum like this, it doesn't take much to push it down. Now i look, i'm happy it's at a 57 billion dollar market crap right a cap right now, uh and that's that's in my opinion.

A little enthusiastic uh for comparison. Neo right now is sitting at 66 billion dollars and uh they're regularly delivering vehicles right. You've got x being at 59 billion dollars, but i think that rivien ipo is helping because rivien's expected to go public at 80 billion dollars, which is freaking nuts, like i'd rather see lucid at 80 billion than riven at 80 billion, but anyway, so a thousand deliveries. This year is gon na make q1 earnings in 2022.

Look not great. Okay, i mean a thousand vehicles this year. Let's just do the math together, really quick. You do a thousand of vehicles times a hundred thirty six thousand dollars.

That's 136 million dollars of revenue. It's a drop in the bucket okay drop in the bucket they're going to. I would highly expect that they're going to lose money right because their operation costs and everything are going to be set up for a much larger ram. So you're going to have a negative quarter.

The margin is going to look like crap you're, probably going to have negative gross margin. So, while tesla's trading off really good margin, the margin at lucid for the first while is going to look horrible, but remember it did at neo as well. Neo had like a four percent margin, then an eight percent margin went to 14 18 22 and the stock rose as margin rose, but i think the stock is moving a little bit in anticipation of that right now, and so i think there are potentially more downside Catalysts than there are upside catalysts - that's not to say this - can't keep going on. A momentum run just think the valuation probably going to be a little pushed right now, based on the rumor and trading.

So i would caution caution that uh. However, if you're excited like, if we don't get big bad news or even if we do - and you want to buy the dip on this, i think it's fair to buy the dip on lucid under 25, certainly under 30 uh, well, the other way around under 30. Certainly under 25, i think those are dip opportunities if you want to invest in lucid in the long term. So if you believe in the car, you believe this as an alternate to tesla.

You know right now: they're pushing their 79 000 vehicle reservations, they're, trying to expand their audience. This is great they're going to be coming out with the lucid gravity, the suv in the future uh probably 2024, once they actually get production ramped on this vehicle and it's gon na be a slow ramp. It's not gon na be like tesla, okay, uh, then uh. Then this will grow.

I mean look uh neo. What did neo deliver? Let's see neo deliveries just to give you comparison as to how early we are on the s curve, even though this is valued like neo right now, you got to know where we sit right now: okay, neo delivered 10 000 vehicles in september of 2021.. Okay, lucid expects to deliver 20 000., so twice that in 12 times the time next year, so so they're early on the s-curve. This is not bagging on them.

It's just simply saying it's this very early stage for the company and just be careful on potential movements too early uh in the stock price. On this one and getting caught up in the momentum right, uh support the company and support the stock. I have i always have now, but i am frustrated about that car reservation. Okay, i'm pissing me off a little bit.

Sorry, i'm just being transparent, so we're gon na ramp to about 1600 next year is the expectation that could be a high expectation going from producing 500. I'm sorry 250 cars a month to all of a sudden next year, getting to an average of of like seven times that what is that 1600 1600 divided by 250 is yeah 6.4 times that look, i'm hopeful for you, but i think that's a little optimistic right. So if that's a little optimistic and those numbers miss stock's going to beat as well, i do think q1 is going to be a dirty earnings report, because you're going to have a big fat negative margin, it's going to be their first quarter with a real uh Deliveries this next earnings report - that's coming out here at the end of here, like when's, the next journey's report. It doesn't even really matter it honestly doesn't matter, it's gon na be a matter of looking at their cash balances and their burn rate.

That's what you're gon na be looking at, but like what earnings have they potentially had if they haven't delivered vehicles yet right? So i i wouldn't be so so enthusiastic about the the earnings myself uh november 15th is when the results will come out. Who cares? That's going to tell you what the earnings are for september august july i'll tell you now zero other than pre-orders, but i don't even know if they recognize pre-order income as revenue, yet because they haven't really earned that. Yet i i don't know about the accounting practices of that i've taken accounting, uh but uh. I will tell you, which is above my pay grade so anyway, uh ramping to 50 000 ambitious, but but this would make sense that you would go go from to some sort of ramp rate like this uh.

Keep in mind that neo4 comparison delivered 24 000 vehicles in three months and they doubled that year over year. So it is possible to see these sorts of doubles and ramps and they've got a great facility in arizona. I would love to visit the lucid facility. Maybe one day, they'll they'll actually care about me kevin uh, but it doesn't matter.

Uh, look you're talking about the stock itself. Uh we've got 13 000 lucid air reservations if they fill like half of those or honestly if they fill a third of those, that's good. So if they fill four thousand or four thousand of these total - that's great uh now, what's going to happen, though, the other thing that's going to happen is you're going to start getting a less expensive product mix coming in starting, probably q1 q2 of an xtr. So really right now, there's not much that we can do because we're not going to be able to look at them on margin, efficiency, we're not going to be able to really do anything other than say they're, going to be losing lots of money, probably for the Next year, this is an early stage, startup with a valuation already between x-ping and neos, and it's running on on momentum.

Right now, i love the company. I'm gon na be paying very close attention to the company. I feel like i i'm well versed in vehicles, although i will not go as far as calling myself a vehicle expert. These are some expectations that i have for neo now, uh worth noting that uh, let's see here, lucid's dream delivery event is in california, lucid's planning to deliver 520 dream air editions and then move down to the grand to touring versions.

Uh lucid and anticipates deliveries for the touring and pure models to start sometime in 2022. Those are the less expensive ones. Lucid's also apparently going to be using the 350 kilowatt hour of superchargers. Those are faster than the tesla v3s how those are at about 250 kilowatt hours.

However, there are not a lot of these chargers around at the time. According to the electrify america website, which is what lucid plans to use remember lucid, doesn't do their own charging network like tesla, does lucid, doesn't plan to do their own self-driving features like tesla does in fact they're, not even launching, with with self-driving uh, even like the Autopilot, at least from what i'm aware of uh they're they're launching stripped of these features and that they'll have some kind of level two self-driving like lane, keep and that that'll release with an over-the-air update later. But electrify america has right now about one-fifth of the superchargers. That tesla does tesla's got uh, i want to say gosh tesla's got over 3 000 charging stations.

Let me see here, tesla investor relations. You can look these up. You just type in google, tesla investor relations. You go to press release, you go to their actual slide deck, that's what you want to download is their slide deck and when you look at their downloaded slide deck just scroll down to about the sixth fifth or sixth page page.

Six here you go so tesla has three thousand two hundred fifty four supercharging stations and electrify america has one fifth of those. We don't know how many of those stations are actually going to include 350 kilowatt hour chargers, so you might be stuck with a lot of slow chargers. My guess is, they'll probably have about 20 percent of their locations having superchargers, which would mean that uh they probably have somewhere around terms of superchargers 130 supercharging stations that actually have the 350 kilowatt, which is about four percent of their entire chargers, are probably somewhere super. The 350 kilowatt superchargers, so i wouldn't get sold on the marketing that, if you get a lucid you're gon na have that 350 kilowatt hour charging you're, probably only going to run into that pretty rarely.

Unless you happen to live next to one uh and and the tesla supercharging stations are, are much more ubiquitous at this point, but then again newer company here and i think lucid's going to actually help electrify america grow substantially as demand for lucids grows. I also expect just like teslas you'll be able to charge the lucids at any electric charger, whether it's a charge point or blink or whatever it is so these are things to know and yeah. These are my thoughts on lucid and tesla. If you like the way, i explain things consider checking out my programs on building your wealth, not just on investing in stocks, but also options, technical analysis, real estate, investing property management.

There is a coupon code that expires tomorrow night. The price does go up saturday morning. Thank you so much for watching the video and folks we'll see you next one goodbye.