What's up you guys, it's graham here so, as i'm sure you're all aware, the housing market is absolutely bonkers. It was just revealed that housing prices have fit yet another record all-time high, rising 17 year-over-year buyers are paying a million dollars over asking in hot markets, offering up a caribbean vacation just to get an offer accepted, or even volunteering, to name their first born child. After the seller, if that gives them an edge, those by the way are all true stories, but now the housing madness is going a little bit further, because we've got this beginning august 1st, the national eviction ban officially expires, leaving tenants at risk of being displaced from Their homes, at the same time, the foreclosure memorandum also expires. Will mortgage forbearance options start coming to an end in september, meaning we're leading up to the moment that so many analysts have warned about, including the impending wave of foreclosures millions at risk of eviction and uh.

This woman, who deliberately ran 49 red lights in her ex-boyfriend's car, to rack up fines because he left her for another woman, but more on that later, okay, but seriously. Let's talk about exactly what's going on what this means for the future of the real estate market, whether or not this is actually something to worry about if the housing boom is actually over, and then we have to answer the question are millennials ruining the housing market By using their pandemic savings to overpay for real estate as business insider suggests. Well, all of that and more on this episode of. If we could get this video to 50 000 likes, i will eat and drink only starbucks for an entire week, i'm being 100 serious.

If you guys want to see that happen, all it's going to cost. You is just one like on the video, so thank you guys so much and also a big thank you to amaze for sponsoring this video, but more on that later, all right. So, as a quick background, here's what's going on during the start of the pandemic as everything shut down, several provisions were put in place to help both homeowners and tenants from being displaced from their homes. For tenants, this included an eviction memorandum that prevented them from being evicted due to non-payment to rent now.

Originally, this provision was only meant to last a few months and expire on may 31st of 2020, but as it became clear that the economy was still in a very precarious position that eviction ban was continually extended over and over every several months until now, where it's Officially set to expire on july 31st, 2021 and then tenants are on their own. The same productions were also offered to home owners under a foreclosure memorandum that prevented banks from taking property owners to court over non-payment of their mortgage. In addition to that, they were also offered what's called mortgage forbearance, which allows them to temporarily defer their mortgage payments for up to a year at which point they'll either need to make up for all the missed payments or apply those missed payments to the end of The loan both of those provisions, were meant to prevent further financial hardship for anyone impacted by the illness at no fault of their own and in the process at the peak, nearly 5 million homeowners claimed forbearance and almost 11 million tenants were at risk of foreclosure. Now, unfortunately, these provisions were heavily criticized for simply kicking the can further down the road and never really solving the root cause of the issue, but it did postpone the inevitable eventually.

This is a crisis that we will have to deal with and at the end of the day, both homeowners and tenants are responsible for making up the payments. They missed. That's worrying to some people who now say that, as these provisions, expire, 1.75 million homeowners are still under active forbearance. Without making a payment and 5.7 million households are behind on rent, meaning that very shortly, millions of people could be impacted, along with the entire real estate market as more homes come on the market, lower values.

But, of course we can't just take this at face value and assume it's correct, so here's what's really going on and how this could actually impact the real estate market. Well, cnbc just ran an article recently saying that the housing boom is over as new home sales fall to pandemic low, indicating that maybe the market is beginning to soften, but for all of you potential home buyers out there don't rejoice. Quite yet. It's really important to realize that, anytime, you hear the phrase home sales hit you low, that is an entirely different meaning than home prices, see home sales are counted by the total number of homes sold, not necessarily what they sold for and falling home sales only mean One of three things: first, that could indicate record low inventory as fewer people list their homes for sale.

Second, that could mean that home builders are having a more difficult time: sourcing, labor and materials, meaning they're not building as much as they once were, and therefore fewer homes could be sold or third prices are reaching a tipping point where buyers are outpriced and can't afford The home they want to get well in this case, guess what the price of new construction homes is actually up. Another six percent from a year ago, while at the same time inventory of new homes increased from a five and a half months supply in may to a 6.3 month supply in june, meaning that more homes are coming on the market, but they're still selling for a Higher price than they were previously, the issue cnbc says, is that low sales numbers are due to rising construction costs, which limit the builder's ability to construct new homes as fast as they would like, and forces them to list at a higher price, meaning fewer people can Afford them, and therefore, sales decline in response to this zillow says that we are shifting our tone on the housing market, based on our analysis of proprietary data showing early signs of a cooldown that doesn't apply to just new construction homes either. Regular home sales have also declined. Another 1.9 percent year over year, leading the realtor chief economist to say that buyers are still interested and want to own a home, but record high home prices are causing some to retreat.

That's during a time where, like i mentioned, tome, prices are up 17 in the last year, which could signal that maybe the market is beginning to slow down. In fact, we could even see that throughout the united states, the number of homes in the market has finally started to increase for the first time in a year. But when you combine that with the expiration of the foreclosure and eviction memorandum, could that open up the possibility for another housing crisis, like some experts have warned? But before we go into that i've got some really good news. I'm excited to announce that i partnered with omaze who's, giving you a chance to win something that is perfect for a video like this, your choice between a 2.6 million dollar miami dream, home or 1.8 million dollars in cash to spend or invest.

However, you like, while being able to support a great cause at the exact same time, if you choose the house, you'll get a 6 000 square foot sanctuary with seven bedrooms, six bathrooms and a resort style yard surrounded by lush greenery. Not only will you get a great room with vaulted ceilings, a wet bar custom, cabinetry, a gym, an office in an elevator, but you'll also get the perfect location, just a quick drive from south beach or if you just want the cash and don't want to spend Your weekends, exploring miami, not a problem, take the 1.8 million dollars in cash and do whatever you want with it and best of all in the process, you'll be able to help support the make a wish america at the exact same time, every 34 minutes a wish Comes true and they grant game-changing experiences to children with critical illness, helping inspire courage and fill families, volunteers and entire communities with hope supported by people like you. So if you want to potentially win a miami dream home or 1.8 million dollars in cash while being able to support a great cause at the exact same time, go to omaze.comgram or use the link down below in the description. So, thank you guys so much enjoy and with that said, let's get back to the video.

So at this point with eviction and foreclosure memorandums expiring, we should address the concerns that the next housing crisis is on. The horizon. Evictions could start coming in a matter of days when more than 10 million americans are behind in the rent and how a surplus of homes could suddenly come on the market from homeowners unable to pay their mortgage, which are all reasonable worries. So, let's start with the end of the eviction memorandum which expired on august 1st and leaves 15 million people vulnerable for eviction.

Now, even though this applies to the majority of the u.s states, like california and new york have extended the eviction memorandum through the end of september and washington dc evictions can't resume until october 12th, with 60 days, advanced notice for the tenant to get caught up. But in terms of exactly how many tenants are truly at risk of eviction, there is not one single verifiable source of information that gives us that amount like the national multi-family housing council shows that overall about two percent fewer tenants pay their rent in full. By the end of the month, when compared with 2019. and if there's 43 million rental households in the us, we might be able to extrapolate that approximately 860 000 households are at least 30 days behind in the rent and off that.

Maybe half would be covered under the eviction memorandum, giving us about 000 more units vulnerable to eviction than normal. Now, as for what's normal in 2016, zillow reported that there were 2.35 million eviction filings and they estimated the number would be as high as 2.7 million in 2021, which mostly mirrors the estimate that i gave with an additional 430 000 units subject to eviction. Now. Other data from the us census bureau shows that between two and four percent of americans say they could be evicted from their home in the next two months and that could point to roughly 5 million households being subject to eviction.

But that information is derived from a survey and doesn't necessarily mean they will be evicted, though certainly 5 million households being evicted would be devastating, but i have to say, as a landlord myself. Evictions like this are always a last-case resort. The fact is, evictions are time-consuming and they're expensive, not to mention there's no guarantee the landlord is actually going to get paid back. The rent that they're due and no tenant wants that on the record.

So in most of these cases i have a feeling the tenant will either voluntarily leave or they're going to work out a payment plan with a landlord to stay, and if the national multi-family housing council is correct, the vast majority of tenants are still paying their rent. In full by the end of the month, indicating that maybe some of these numbers are a bit overblown the second in terms of the expiring foreclosure memorandum, there's, certainly the narrative that a wave of foreclosures is about to hit the economy. But realistically the number of homeowners in active forbearance has been consistently declining month after month, suggesting that homeowners are resuming their payments and moving on as usual. Now, as for the homeowners who could not keep making their payments most likely, they would be able to list and sell their home for a profit and then walk away pocketing the difference for a home to go into foreclosure.

The owner must owe more money to the bank than what the home is actually worth, and right now, with record high prices and record high homeowner equity. Only about two percent of all mortgaged properties fall into that category, so the chance of them all going into foreclosure. All at the exact same time is just not going to happen, and i would even venture to say that the worst case scenario here is that we see a small uptick of more homes in the market as people decide to list and sell their homes. But i highly doubt that would be enough to crash the market.

In addition to that, there are several provisions put in place right now to prevent things from getting too bad and if you're curious, what that is here, you go. First, the federal housing administration would offer a no-cost zero percent interest loan to the borrower for the amount owed. This would appear as a lien against the house that would not need to be repaid until the home is either refinanced or sold. So, hypothetically homeowners would be able to receive an interest-free loan for the rest of their life as long as they just resume their payments as normal and don't sell the second fha borrowers would also be eligible to loan modification that would extend their loan up to 30 Years, this is an option to reduce your monthly payments by as much as 25 percent by allowing you a longer term to repay the amount you owe the third va.

Borrowers will now have a chance to get a 40-year loan modification mortgage. That means, for example, that if you have 25 years left on your mortgage and it's 900 a month, you could extend that up to 40 years and then lower your payment down to 700 a month. They also say the va could purchase some of your unpaid principal balance, further reducing your payments, but i got ta say a 40-year. Mortgage is incredible, and if you're able to do that and lock in a low rate, it would be really hard to turn that down and fourth also for usda loans.

They're going to be offering you a loan extension up to 30 years. To give you more time to pay at this point, most lenders are offering loan modification or extension for any owners and forbearance because, like i mentioned, foreclosure is a last case resort. Now. Rental relief is also in the works, but unfortunately it tends to be quite restrictive.

In terms of how and who could get it, some states are a little bit more clear, but others like california require that you pay 25 of your back rent, make less than 80 of the median income, show reduction in income and comply with a variety of other Qualifications in order to be considered not to mention even if you do qualify landlords are not required to accept that payment. It also only applies to tenants at immediate risk of eviction and does not cover past debts or loans taken out to keep current with your rent. So, even though rental relief can be available in your area, it's best to check with your specific county, because every place is going to be different. So, overall, even though we have quite a few new changes taking place over the next month, it does not appear that the expiring eviction and foreclosure memorandum are going to have a meaningful impact on the entire real estate market.

Instead, i do think we're beginning to see the housing market start to return to normal, with more inventory coming on the market, along with prices rising at a somewhat slower rate. To me. That's a signal that perhaps buyers are reaching a point where they simply can't afford to pay any more and as the cost of materials begins to come down and normalize, we should start to see more consistent pricing throughout the market. Now for wealthy millennials it was said that the shutdown allowed them to save way more money than usual, which business insider says, helped drive the 2020 housing boom and worsen the crisis, but that could only last for so long until eventually things slow down.

I have a feeling this could last another six to 12 months as inventory and interest rates continue to stay low. But until then the best thing we could do is keep an eye on the housing inventory see if home prices rise at a slower rate and then smash the like button for the youtube algorithm. So with that said, you guys thank you so much for watching. I really appreciate it as always make sure to destroy the subscribe button, and the notification bell also feel free to add me on instagram.

My posts are pretty much daily, so if you want to be a part of it, there feel free to add me there. As on the second channel, the gram stefan show i post there every single day - i'm not posting here. So if you want to see a brand new video for me every single day, make sure to add yourself to that. And finally, if you want a completely free stock worth all the way up to 70 dollars, use the link down below in the description and sign up for public and plus, i'm posting all of my own stock trades on there.

So if you want to see exactly what i am buying, the link is down below in the description enjoy. Let me know which stock you get. Thank you so much for watching and until next time.