Hey everyone Me: Kevin here. Well, we have a warning for 2024. It is exactly what happened here. The S&P 500 went negative for the first 5 days of the year.

You have to turn off the average candlesticks to see it. But I want you to pay attention to this right? here? Here's the 29th. We've got a close of 47531. you can see that at the top and the red numbers there on Weeble Okay, we just closed on the first fifth, five days of the year, the fifth day of the year 4746.

Slightly negative A Schmid negative. What does that mean? Well take a look at this recent history we have here of annual stock market performance from 2019. This is not a guarantee. This obviously only goes back 5 years of data, so for what it's worth, it could be entirely worthless.

But this is something we've been paying attention to and this morning I suggested it was very important that as much as it seemed like it wasn't going to happen, we actually close positive, but very decently positive on the S&P 500. Ideally I said 1.58% positive so we could at least we break even with how we Clos the year Well We did end up rallying into the close, which was remarkable. Let's go to the average candlesticks here. Well, we rallied throughout the day.

I Guess is the way to put it. Let's go to the five minute candle and what do we see on the five-minute candle? Look at that. Movement we had today. The market actually wanted to close.

positive, but we closed only up 1 .43 15 basis points off. Therefore, were 15 basis points negative for the first 5 days of the year. The only other time we've been negative in the past 5 years. Well, of the past 5 years of data was 2022.

we were negative 1.9% For the first 5 days, we had a negative 19% year. we just closed down 15 basis points, which 15 basis points out of 190 is only about 7.9% of that. Which would mean maybe if you multiplied these numbers. Maybe maybe maybe maybe.

the warning that this is giving you is that the S&P 500 if we had that same scale from 2022 might close down 1.53% this year. Big deal. Obviously, nobody knows this is just one data point could be entirely worthless. What are the Bears saying? Well, the Bears are saying.

especially JP Morgan Marco Kovic Big big big bear argument Coming back. Oh, you know what? Um, inflation's going to come back. Yeah, that's the big argument right now. Is that inflation is going to come back? Of course we've got the 102 inversion that we could talk about.

but I'm not finding inflation coming back every single day. I'm looking for disinflation I'm not finding it. We are bull steepening right now. in the Treasuries market.

We're negative. 35 basis points on the 10. Two, If you don't know what that means, it's a good thing. However, that 10-year treasury is kind of stuck around four.

We're not really getting The real push down and we might not until we actually get cuts from the FED. Bostic this morning came out and suggested you know I don't see rate Cuts until the third quarter. Yeah, well, the market disagrees with you and usually the FED wants to align with what the Market's doing. And so what you might need is a Jpw on January 31st.

Who says look, we are not cutting yet and we have no plans too for the foreseeable meetings because right now the market believes we have a 61% chance of our first rate cut on March 20th, followed by, uh, an over 92% chance that we are at one to two cuts by May. So if we're not looking at uh, the first cut until the third quarter, we'd have to have no cuts for January, March, May and June. So Bostic Little bit bearish here. Maybe he's siding with Kovic.

he argues that is. Bosk argues that hey, the labor market is still strong enough. we can keep going. However, as we've read and discussed on Ec.com we already know this: the unemployment problem is real and yes, there are dangers.

We talked about the debt recession as well if you haven't seen that yet, talked about the debt recession and some things to keep in mind when it comes to the Chartism on the debt recession. But the most important thing in my opinion, has to do with what happens with the labor recession. You can read all those details on Ec.com Will we see a labor recession? Nobody knows. So Kovic over at JP Morgan realizes this as well.

What does he focus on? He focuses on the second wave of inflation is coming so far, we're not seeing the signs of that. In fact, when we look at what's going on with the Saudi Arabia oil Cuts because of weak demand from China, we see that oil slipped 3 to 4% today Western blend 3.78% Brent down about 3 uh, 3.9% sitting about 76 bucks on International oil. Right now, we are right back at where we were in July in terms of levels as well as December and we're down from that Spike of the pain of the Red Sea There's also now talk that Houthis are negotiating directly and striking deals as reported by Dutch newspapers directly with companies like MK or other shipping companies mostly because the United States political bias aside, fail to protect shipping lanes in the Red Sea despite promising that they would. In fact, we covered this thoroughly on Ec.com where we argued Once us warships entered the region, we'd have stability and the Red Sea shipping pains would relax instead.

Well, as expected, warship showed up on Christmas Eevees on Christmas Eve were not able to protect shipping lanes enough. Shippers again paused shipments, then began negotiating directly with the Houthis who used to be labeled terrorists Biden unlabeled them as terrorists. but essentially we now have Western corporations negotiating directly with used to be terrorist organizations to have safe pass passage in the Red Sea Now this again, it's not a political argument every time. I Mention this because I Mentioned in the Live this morning people start saying well, you know it's a response to Palestine Are you saying you support the killing of women, women, and children in Palestine No I'm just saying Western companies are now negotiating directly with what used to be a terrorist group because the United States didn't protect the shipping lanes.

That's all we're saying. Okay, this is not an Israel Pal video. We could save that for another video, but the point is it's actually a bullish. Catalyst Because the longer we have the inflationary pressure in the Red Sea the more damage we cause to shipping internationally Shipment rates for 40 yard containers from Shanghai to Radam which is all the way across Europe it's like the furthest distance you can really go.

Uh, you're looking at up about 230% so hopefully we see relaxation here. I Also, don't think we're going to see those price increases which are producer price increases show up in consumer prices. mostly because businesses are struggling to continue raising prices. They have raised prices a lot, but they're going to take that pain in the margin.

I Always like to say they're going to take it in the m in the margin so we'll see this earning season will be really clear about company's ability to continue to pass on prices, But the information we got today Is it really scary? Are the Bears saying anything new that they haven't said before? No, they're saying be wary of the second wave of inflation. Is this potentially bad news for the year? Yes, if we scale it, Is it really that bad? Maybe not. The reality is if the Federal Reserve s the soft Landing Yes, the Ponzi so to speak can continue of money printing our way out of a recession as long as there's no inflation. whether it's the rig data or actually additional inflation I Like to just skip the data and look directly at what companies are doing and again every single day.

As we review this in our course member live streams which remember you get lifetime access if you join any of the courses linked at me Kevin.com you could see the research we do. We do a lot of research on companies. We're not seeing companies willing to raise prices anymore. There's a limit to how much they can anymore, so we'll see.

Obviously we have CES going on as well. Right now, the CES News is Fant. Well, let's just say a lot of people are very excited about it so far. specifically with what we're hearing from Uh Nvidia And as always at CES, there are exciting new products that are announced from Sony and Samsung and LG Like the RTX 4080 super coming out from Nvidia for $999 a more reasonable price.

They're arguing. this is also very interesting because it kind of feds into this price competitive nature. AI chips are still like, really inflated, right? but that's because there's so few of them. Instead, what you're now getting is competition from companies like AMD and Nvidia is like oh yeah, you know I know AMD got the Radon 7900 at $899 So let's cut the price of the Nvidia chips uh by about $200 which now puts pressure on AMD It's a price War Just like what you get in the EVS That doesn't make any of those companies bad, it just it's just the nature of consumers have less money and so they're being more careful with where they're spending it.

So we talked: Bostic We did have Fed's Bowman talk as well. Michelle's Bo Michelle Bowman said that inflation could fall to the Fed's 2% Target with interest rates held at current levels and offered potential backing for lowering costs if those price pressures fade. Quote: Should inflation continue to fall closer to our 2% goal over time, it will eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering our policy rate. we're not at that point yet.

Uh, this is very normal. We've had a lot of people even this weekend. Uh, like Loretta Master complain about easing Financial conditions and will those easier Financial Conditions hurt progress on inflation. Well, if you want a leading indicator, look at what companies are doing even Nvidia at CES it is a leading indicator.

Watch what the Autos are doing. look at Byd cut prices on Byd battery electric vehicles. These are things we want to pay attention to. So again, I'm I'm focused on the data.

The data to me says inflation's going down. The bearers are saying yes, there could be a second wave I don't see it when and if I do I will continue to report it. However, I will say this is more bearish than it is bullish. Maybe this year will'll end up flat, but if anything's positive I do think we're going to end up getting a BTC ETF Wednesday It almost seems certain.

No guarantees though. All right. thanks for watching folks. We'll see you in the next one.

Bye I Got to catch a flight. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations man, you have done so much People love you people look up to you Kevin P there financial analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin Always great to get your take even though I'm a licensed financial adviser, real estate broker and becoming a stock broker. This video is neither personalized Financial advice nor real estate advice for you.

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