So a couple of weeks ago Alex Karp went on stage and said this: you are breathing the vapors of a dangerous, new fake and uh, self-destructive religion when you were sitting at your Elite School pretending because you watched Tik Tock twice and got an A+ on some crazy paper because your professor couldn't get a job anywhere else that you actually understand the world and you're not welcome at my company. Of course that clip went viral and everybody started talking about Paler in this video I Want to show you a proper financial analysis of how much Paler is really worth? Not what I hope it would be in the future. Not what I Think it might be what it is worth based on the DCF Based on my five-year valuation model, all will be done using Stock Mvp.com We have a special coupon code that will last you till the end of this year, right into 2024. Last 40 will give you 40% off for life.

So obviously, as you can see right here, the stock has not been doing well. But that bears very little to the real question of the true fundamental actual valuation of Paler from an intrinsic value perspective. So first of all, let's look at our current DCF and then at our fiveyear valuation model, both here on stock. MVP So what you're seeing on the screen right now is our own DCF valuation model.

You can run your own. You have all the data here from the company, all the revenues, the expenses, the Ibida, all the numbers are right here. and then you can plug your own numbers use your own interest rates, and get your own results. now.

I in mind based on an assumption of Paler getting to $1 billion of revenues in 2028 and this is what I got today Devolution of the company based on these assumptions for me, is $185 So I Know that currently the stock price at 17.7 is pretty much fairly valued. Nothing crazy. But now I want to show you what the five-year model looks like because the 5-year model looks into the future, not just the current value. A DCF inherently by its own nature, will give you the current price, the current valuation of the future cash flows.

It's not going to give you a fiveyear estimate for that. We have to go to our SCF model right here. and now we're here at the SCF model page on stock. MVP Of course you can build your own.

On the bottom page, you have all the data from the company that you would need to do so. On the left hand side, you have all the data right here that will give you kind of a mockup model and on the right side, this is your own model. Now as you can see right here, this is the model that I've built and this is what I've gotten basically the 5year conservative price target for Pener for me. If nothing goes well for this company, worst case scenario, this is a $15 stock for me.

So at the current price level with my own assumptions, this isn't too much below it. Now the fiveyear middle ground for me is a $47 $47 Middle Ground Not bad. With the current pricing, the optimistic is $79 Now, this is not my real price target for this company. Not what I hope it might be and what I kind of assume it might be.

This is based on the current model on the current valuation, just assuming slightly more or slightly less amount of growth, amount of profitability, and efficiency. So for me, the stock price for the next 5 years is ranging between $15 in the worst possible case and $80 in the optimistic case. Of course I See, it is a potential $500 stock in the future down the road. But for me, these are the Border Lines These are the parameters for my model 15 to 80 also with about 18 and 1 12 on the DCF So that gives me a good idea.

What? I Think about the stock as far as its current valuation and of course you always want to take a look at what other analysts are saying. We have that as well here on stock MVP right here. So let's click that and see and what you get here is a quick aggregate. Of course you can scroll down and you can look at H specific analyst.

They're all here, but this will give you an aggregate of the average price that analysts are giving for this company. No surprises here. The Paler stock has always kind of had an issue. Analysts don't like it for the most part with the exception of day knives.

shout out to: Dan $12 average price target with the 17 and a half 17.7 current price Target Again, it's below the current price, but nothing horrendous. The stock isn't really hated on, just not getting a lot of love from analyst. Now let's look at what happened recently with institutional investors because this is very interesting. So on this page you will get an aggregate view of the ownership of the stock.

How much is owned by institutional investors? Right Here you can see 53% owned by retail, 40% owned by Institutional. If you go back to my previous videos, this ownership percentage used to be 35% So for the past year the institutional ownership of Paler went up from 35 to 40% which is I think currently at its highest point we've ever seen it and it's a good sign, especially with Black Rock only about 5% of it at this point. But then again, Black Rock owns pretty much 5% of everything. What you want to take a look at is this side the institutional side.

How much of it is on owned by institution and for any analysis we have to take a look at the MVP cards. Of course you can build your own cards right here. these are mine. You can do a full customization on whatever information you want about this company.

These are specifically mine. Mine is basically to allow me an overview of the company. what's going on based on fundamentals from a high 10,000 ft kind of level. Revenue is up 177% over the past year.

Not bad, but still a long ways away from my target which is 35% which is where I think they should be and will be quite soon. Grow profit is up 18% R&D expenses are up 5% Not too bad. Sgna is only up 5% So this is the part where I really like about a company. Whenever I see a company that generates 177% Revenue growth with only 5% growth in Sgna selling General Administrative These are the expenses you don't want to see in the company.

R&D you can live with. Because R&D is research and development. These expenses they generate profit. The Sgna is bad expenses.

back office Administration all the stuff don't generate money with the exception perhaps of marketing which is also included here. But only 5% growth in Sgna with 177% growth in Revenue means the company is growing three times faster its revenues than it's back office expenses. and it's another good sign. Same thing for operating expenses.

only 5% growth in operating expenses with three times more growth in Revenue Another great sign. And if you scroll down right here, these cards are more based on balance sheet as you can see total assets are at 4 billion, liabilities are at 945 million, which means the company owns four times more than it owes. A beautiful setup for a balance sheet. We have negative negative net debt, which is a good thing, which means 900 million sorry, 800 million more cash than debt.

In fact, it's a lot more than that. It's about 3 billion, but a lot of it is invested in short-term Securities and in bonds. So you don't see it here. but it's about 3 billion to zero.

Gross profit margin is at 80% It's beautiful. Net profit margin 7% It will grow, it will go up. R Return of equity has to get better. Return of capital employed has to get better.

These numbers is where the rubber meets the road. These are the next point of improvement. Price to sales of 18 is not cheap, but nothing exuberant. And of course you can take a look at this and go oh my.

God 260 PE Look, they don't really have earnings per se yet. They just started being positive and earnings so this number basically is meaningless. Price to sales is not cheap. 18 is the one that's legit.

It's not a cheap stock, but with so much potential. with so much upside. and with Alex Carpet the helm and with 143% in the past year I think they've done a good job this year. And if you want to check out stock MVP which I've used to do my analysis for today's video as you've seen stock D Mvp.com it's available on Android and on iPhone one week free trial to anybody and use the coupon code last 40 it's 40% off for Life The coupon code is active till the end of 2023 and then it's gone forever.

Check it out, try it out for a week, see if you like it I'm sure you're going to love it! We already have over a thousand of members who are using this platform every day and we would be excited to have you on! Thank you so much! I'll see you in the next video.