Is Technical Analysis enough to profit from the financial markets? Here's the truth and it's not what you think...
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1:00 To find out whether it works we have to compare it to a benchmark. Okay, so the benchmark that we will compare against is the S&P 500. So we can see that historically S&P does about an average of 9-10% a year with a maximum drawdown of 55%. So there are two ways, right, we can so-called beat the benchmark.
1:30 To find out whether we can beat the market is we are going to go with a simple strategy. In this strategy, that I choose right, it's a momentum strategy. Okay, so basically, it looks to buy high and sell higher. Momentum. So these are the rules of the momentum trading strategy.
4:00 Clearly, technical analysis work. So yes, technical analysis work, but I want you to think about something alright. Is that all you need? For all to answer is no and here's why. Number one. Risk management.
5:30 The second thing, psychology. Why do I say that? Because imagine this. Imagine at this point in time, right, over here, 2002, alright, in May you are down 3.9%. You might think, "Oh, it's nothing right. I can survive. No use, it's only 4%. Come on. Gorilla two is here. Then you're down another 0.5% in June and by a scratch, right? I can do this.
6:00 Let's do a quick recap, right. Number one, yes technical analysis it can work. Right, I just shared with you a very simple momentum strategy that actually beats the market over the last 28 years. Very simple strategy. Even, you know, a 13- or 14- year old kid can understand. But I shared with you that if you don't apply proper risk management, if you're over-leveraged, if you are risking too much per trade, right you will not survive the drawdown. That's a fact.
7:00 Another thing is the psychology, right. You can have the best trading strategy in the world, but if you can not handle the emotional drawdown that comes with it, you can not handle the losses, right, the negative punches that the market is giving you, even a trading strategy with an edge right will not save you as well. So I hope by now you can understand that yes, right, technical analysis can work by in itself without fundamentals, without analysis, without anything. But you must have the proper risk management and the right training psychology. Okay?
8:00 So with that said, right, I've come towards the end of this video. Even a little more about what I do, training strategies, and techniques right. Go down to my website over here: tradingwithrayner.com. Okay and if you just scroll down to the bottom right somewhere here. I've got a couple of trading books that you can download, right, The Ultimate Trend Following Guide to Right Massive Trends in the Market and The Ultimate Guide To Price Action Trading. So what we have covered a little is more of a trend following at momentum trading.
10:00 So if you are more of a discretionary trader, right, you know more about market structures and support resistance than The Ultimate Guide To Price Action Trading is for you. Click on this blue button and I'll send it to your inbox.
So with that said, right, I've come towards the end of this video any feedback comment. Let me know it in the comment section below and if you've enjoyed this video hit the like button! Bam Bam! And subscribe to my Youtube channels so you can get more of such videos every single week. So with that said I wish you good luck and good trading. I'll talk to you soon!

By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

25 thoughts on “Technical analysis: does it work? it s not what you think”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Shanu says:

    Good learnings as always thanks 💓🙏

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Alan Wright says:

    👍

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars suman chhetri says:

    Thats 💯 correct man.

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars shaun says:

    Hi Rayner, thanks for this insightful video. Will you be able to share the script/formula that you used for this momentum strategy on your backtesting platform? Thanks!

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Nayan Mipun says:

    Technical analysis works in trending markets it does not work much in consolidating markets

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TheRealUnconnected says:

    really been enjoying your content, you are teaching me a heap. I'm about to get back into the market and this is all really helping. One thing, please consider investing in a touch screen monitor or drawing tablet (wacom tablet) so that your on screen drawings are able to be much clearer!

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Amir Marandi says:

    oh man i really enjoy when i come to this page never wasted my time keep it up

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Arturo Ravelo III says:

    great backtests!

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Tony Hughes says:

    Why a high over a 40 week period? What is the significance? Can this be applied to Forex? IF so what period might be successful?

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars THABANI MKHIZE says:

    Ur videos are helping me alot …I like the fact that u not explaining things in hindsight just like some traders

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars An says:

    Underrated channel, thank you

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars cdowis says:

    Your picture gets in the way of the graphic — cannot read it. More interested in the info than your face!

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Enrique says:

    Can you show your real statistics instead of a simple backtesting? I think that will be more useful.

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Andrew Le says:

    Great example of how risk management and psychology is necessary to be successful in trading the financial market.

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars novaricos says:

    thank you Raynor for your generosity and expertise and clear presentation skills as well!

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ahmed Kabir Maruf says:

    I've learned so much from your channel. Thank you so much Rayner. May Allah bless you. 😇

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars nkOmo says:

    Been Trading for years and i have been following for 3years now.. my question is , where do you learn all these and who is your mentor! I respect the knowledege you have

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars charudatta11 says:

    Very nice, your videos are always motivational & helpful.

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars R4zv4n2mihai says:

    Dear Rayner, I believe your videos are the best in this niche. Congrats for the output of your efforts. YOU ARE AMAZING!!! P.S. When is your book ready for international shipping (EU)?

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ravanger1 says:

    good information, i like the sound effects as well

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ess mac says:

    Thanks Rayner.

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Franco Sosuan says:

    Great video! What program did you use to backtest?

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Pogi Boi says:

    How did you backtest? What program did you use to back test the strategy?

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars MAHARANA says:

    Awesome Rayner, always you give us masterstroke ideas.. Thank You.

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kannapiran R.P says:

    Thank you Rayner Teo

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