One Two Three. What's going on guys? So the Fomc meeting is today and it's in about five minutes. Uh, right. under Five minutes.

Almost Four minutes. I'm gonna give it a couple of seconds for everyone to be able to start tuning on in As of right now, before the Fomc meeting, uh NASDAQ Market is up about 0.29.3 percent. We did hit 52-week highs today. Um, it did pull on back just a little bit as it doesn't really surprise me that it did.

I Want to go ahead and double check very quickly? As of right now, the Federate monitor tool is saying that there is a 97.8 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will pause and a 2.2 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will rate hike, right? Um, excited to see what actually is reported? Um, it seems like the market is very, very certain. Um, that we are going to pause. and this will be the first time in the past 12 months that the Federal Reserve does not provide an interest rate hike, right? Um, pretty pretty exciting. We've seen inflation at 40-year Highs at least in my lifetime.

that's the highest rate of inflation that I've ever seen at 9.1 percent, most likely of your lifetime. As well. interest rates were being aggressively. uh, you know, just hiked with a at the peak of 0.75 interest rate hike as we got into like last year the month of August September October Stuff like that.

Um, so again, it's been about three minutes. A little bit less than three minutes. We will be seeing the market react to this Fomc meeting. I Hope that you learned something new if this is your first time tuning on in.

Welcome I Hope that I can be of value for you If you ever have any questions, please do not hesitate to send me a direct message via Discord You can refresh your screen and it's going to be the first link in the description down below. And other than that, I Just want to remind you again: I Do Trade Live Every morning. You don't have to tune on in, but if you're trading alone and it's getting kind of difficult for you to understand what to do and what not to do again being able to have access to my live trading sessions. If you want to learn more about it, to see what it's like, and to see if it's a good fit for you, it's the second link in the description down below.

We're running our biggest sell. It's a one-time payment lifetime access and if you sign up today, you can watch me trade live as soon as tomorrow. So let's go ahead and see what is reported. All right.

Good afternoon, good afternoon. let's see if. Nope, it did not notify our people on Discord So I'm going to make sure that I share it with everyone on Discord So we are live. We go all right.

I do have a poll in that live chat I Do want to remind you that if you do want to participate in the live chat, you do have to be subscribed to the YouTube channel. So just a heads up on that. All right. 1.5 minutes left.

Again for history to be made. we have actually one minute left. Exactly one minute. So I'm eating my French fries Don't Mind If I Do I'm going to be waiting for the market to react and then trading based off of that reaction.

All right. Okay, 30 seconds left. One of the things that we always say is do something now to manage or mitigate your risk or forever hold your peace. So again, markets expectation.

Right now, we're at a 97.98.9 percent probability. Literally a 1.1 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will rate hike. So Market I Don't think I've ever seen the market this certain. so excited to see how it reacts.

10 second countdown, 10 9, 8, 7, 4, 3, 2, 1 and let's see which way we go. And there it goes. Market Reacting in a negative way. Let's see what is reported.

All right. wait wait wait wait. Is this gonna be a dip by I will do a light 500 shares? Let's see no. I'm gonna hold off Market is selling off Market's going to break even what's going on? What did we report? It's a pause? Yep.

Five Forecast forecast should be just 5.2 right? Yep. Markets reacting in a negative way. Is this an overreaction? Oh wait, I'm not supposed to be buying. Oh almost bought.

QQQ Thank you thank you thank you I'm trying to keep up with all of this movement. Here it goes. Let's see. let's see.

wait. Still selling off. Let it sell off. The more it sells off, the cheaper I can get it.

For here. it goes. here. It goes.

All right. All right. Boom. Huge sell-off Huge sell-off Why is the market selling off? If is it already factored in? Possibly right? All right, All right testing.

Market Support: Let's see what we got going on here. I'm gonna buy 500 shares again. I'm going to keep it light again. I Normally trade with over 400 000.

Me buying twenty thousand dollars is literally less than five percent of what I normally trade with just so you can see that as a perspective. Please Do Not copy my trades. Just because I choose to trade something does not mean that you need to agree with me. Um, if anything.

Again, if this is your first time ever watching an Fomc meeting, sit back, relax, enjoy, watch the Market's reaction. It's going to be a very volatile move most likely, and it's definitely not something that's designed for probably complete beginners. So I'm liking this movement. Let's see.

come on there he goes. Yep, Five point, Five point. Uh, Two. Five percent.

So previous was 5.25 we're still at 5.25 meaning that the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates. This is the First Rate hike that we've seen in quite some time and we should be able to see the live stream today. So the live stream will most likely be 30 minutes after the Market opens. I'm sorry, 30 minutes after this is reported.

So, uh, 28 minutes from now, Jerome Powell should be speaking and answering some questions. There it goes, Let's see which way the market goes and keep it light, keep it tight. Direction is still very unclear, so I'm not going to be aggressive with any position that I choose to take as of right now. Dip and then a rip.

Always watch again. I'm excited to see I I Do agree with you that the market reacts one specific way during the rate hike or the rate pause and then it reacts a different way normally when Jerome Powell speaks, but again, things are different now, right? Things can definitely change. Markets been very bullish. I'm not going to go in with the 1500 as it doesn't make sense when direction is still unclear.

We're going back to retest previous lows. This is pretty much uh day lows, right. On the day, we can easily break below the support. So again, the lighter that I stay, probably the better.

Let's look at NASDAQ very quickly. I Like looking at different time frames on the 30 minute we broke below that. EMA We are far below that moving average on the five minute. Looks like we are going into an active sell-off right now and on the one hour we should be getting very, very close to that EMA right? So we talked about this during our live trading session today.

We're on the one hour time frame. We've been validating the moving out the EMA quite nicely, but we'll have to wait and see how the market actually reacts. So so they kept the same. So what that means for those that are tuning on in for the first time.

So what that means is if they kept it the same, that means that there is a pause meaning that they didn't increase interest rates that they just stayed the same, which was what was expected from the Federal Reserve I'm gonna buy another 500 shares again. Please do Not copy. Just because I'm adding more does not mean that you need to. The RSI just looks oversold.

So does the Macd I personally like to in Reverse Those reversals are very risky to trade during, especially very volatile days like like today. If you don't know how to manage a risk, then again, you shouldn't be taking any trade. Uh, especially during a very risky day like today. So there is no indication of higher highs or higher lows.

which is why I'm still relatively very light with my position. The more that this thing begins to show signs of a potential reversal, uh, or when it does show confirmations of a reversal, then that's when I can get into adding 1500 shares 2 000 shares at a given period as of right now I Want to stay light because I see it to be oversold I see there to be upside potential. but I'm you know we don't have that confirmation yet. And because of that I don't want to personally be super aggressive and there it goes.

We got Tqq pulling on back. How backwards? Isn't this insane? Did we? Did we not talk about this during our live trading session today? Uh, Lpp? Team Let me know. Did we Not talk about this? How backwards is the market? The market goes up before because of what it's factoring in, and then once it's actually released, the market reacts in a negative way. right? Isn't that absolutely insane? The market that we live in? Insane insane time to be alive.

Here it goes: Active sell-off, still selling off, Still selling off by the rumors, sell the news. I Mean that's why they they say that right? Insane in the membrane. What's going on? Rocket J Happy to have you here man. Thank you for joining us All right? We have 4 000 of you guys here and yet only 300 likes Yet you guys want me to stay here for another 24 minutes for us to what here? Jerome Powell Speak.

Come on guys. We need to get it. At least at least a thousand lives. That's just a quarter of you guys.

Do you guys not like these live streams? And here it goes: Active Sell-off The more it sells off, the better, right? Let it sell off the cheaper it gets. Huge pullback that has to be at the one hour. Yep, breaking below the one hour EMA One hour EMA Being broken for uh QQQ Check it out. Let's look at the one hour on.

QQQ Yep, One hour EMA Being broken. All right. Still dropping dropping Like It's Hot as KiKi Where Where are my bears I Want to see a show of hands? Where are my? Bears Wow. Huge sell-off Where's that Put us down two percent on the day? Still active Sell-off Look at that testing testing testing.

Bear Bear Bear Bear. We had a handful of people that I saw that were still holding their long position and again, it made sense on why people were holding their long position right. Um, Market has been incredibly bullish. There's a 90 what was it? 98 point something percent chance of a rate pause and that's what everyone was waiting for.

Uh, there it goes. So now we are waiting for the next one. July 26 2023 There it goes. Nice little bounce.

let's see if this is going to be it again. Still want to stay very light when direction is unclear. It's very risky, especially entering this active sell-off So told you Told you Told dude, you all made fun of me I've never made fun of anyone based off of them sharing their opinion. Show me.

Show me one time. Show me one time I'm I'm all for I Mean everyone's sharing their own opinion. Never will I ever I Don't care if you're if you go against me and you have a valid reason on why you think the Market's gonna go up or go down and I think otherwise. Heck now I Never never never.

Oh and there it goes. We have 1100 likes. Really do appreciate that guys. Thank you Thank you All right I'm Gonna Keep It Light.

Not here to over complicate it. Buying 500 shares Again, just because I'm buying does not mean that you need to. Please understand that. Now Who thinks that by the time that Jerome Powell speaks right now? let's let's note this right now: Tiki Q is down 1.4 Who thinks by the time that Jerome Powell speaks that the market could possibly be back in the green? Have you get? If you've ever experienced a Fomc meeting, It's insane how quickly the market trades.

It's insane. Absolutely insane. And here it goes: I Really like this uptrend. it's adding 500 shares.

Direction Seems to be favorable. We're still below the EMA. We're still below the moving average. This is extra risky.

but again, I'm just explaining my thought process on why I'm choosing to do it already priced then I think that it will 100. It will go green again. Nothing is ever 100. But you know, All right, let's see.

let's look at the five minute are we about to. Nope. still too early. Tkq gapping up.

How beautiful. Okay, wow wow wow wow Wow. Okay, testing the super trend for the first time here. Let's do 1500.

if we get that break above 1500 right. Keep it light, keep it tight anytime that it's oversold a lot of people and this is one thing you'll always see from me: I don't mind buying the dip and I'm not here to encourage it for anyone again. I have a specific way that I like to trade them and I know I make mistakes all the time. But one thing that I always focus on is what position size I trade with a certain dollar amount and I'm aware of that.

You are all aware of what you trade with what's a 100 position size for you, right? So you should understand what a five percent position size is for you, right? based off of the max amounts of shares you can buy versus five percent of that. One of the things I always focus on is staying super light in the very beginning. Remember my job as a Trader is not to avoid risk, it's just to manage it. And by managing my risk I choose to manage my position size.

This is the beautiful thing. The beautiful part about trading in my opinion that you can enter very risky trades, but if you enter it in a tasteful way meaning that you keep it light enough that yeah, you take it seriously. but it's not so much that it makes you an emotional mess if things begin to go south. That is the beautiful part about staying well balanced, staying effective.

I Wish more people when they were just getting started understood the beauty of not trying to Make It or Break It Right But they stayed light enough to focus on the important parts of understanding what you are doing. um and again. I Guess only time will tell. There it goes getting rejected.

So good thing we have not added again. we didn't get that confirmation that I was looking for for the break above that super Trend So if I don't get that confirmation then that means that I have not earned the ability right? The opportunity to add more to my position at this point I would rather just still stay light right? Did it be announced the rate hike already? They did. Yeah! So I should take this down and pull. So again, the poll was correct.

Seven percent, Seventy percent said that. There was a rate pause and that's exactly what it was. Uh, we had the expectation of 5.25 percent with no rate height and that's exactly what it was. No rate hike and we're still at five point.

Two five percent. We didn't do a rate cut right. For those that are a little bit newer, you might be asking, why are we still at 5.25 percent? That number will only go down when they begin to do rate Cuts So this is good. This means that, uh, moving forward.

It's not that they can't provide any more rate hikes, it just means that this might be the potential pivot. But in about 17 minutes, Jerome Powell is going to be speaking where I Think that we can get a little bit more insight of when is the net? when is the next time that you would consider not just pausing, but potentially a rate cut right? That would be a huge reason on why the market could Skyrocket or why the market could dump if he factors in. hey, this is a rate pause. We want to see how the market reacts, but another rate hike is not out of the question and I believe that's what he might say.

and I think that could even cause more selling pressure and more fear being injected into the market. But again, that's just my opinion so we'll have to wait and see why predict when he can react. Thank you much much. Yep.

I mean in some raising cage right now I'm so hungry I've had I've had a little busy morning filming my little videos for you guys so I really do appreciate you guys taking time and joining me for this Fomc live stream. I Really hope that it's a value for you. Um, and on top of that I hope that it's something where you know we can work together and if it's just me answering any open-ended question, if you're a beginner, shoot me a DM Again, it's all Linked In The description down below. you can shoot me a DMV at Discord or via Instagram or if you want to end up being able to watch me trade live I trade live every morning and that's that second link in the description down below.

So really happy to have you here and hope to have you as a part of the team soon. All right. So again, in 15 minutes Jerome Powell should be speaking obviously because you guys got me to 1300 likes I'm very grateful for it. I'd be more than happy to host um, the live stream.

It's going to be for another about 45 minutes from now. So that's why I brought my food because well, I haven't had anything to eat today. It's nearly noon here, so I hope some of you guys don't mind me uh, enjoying my little three-piece meal from Raising Cane's don't worry I'll try not to chew in the mic, right? For those that get disgusted, Do you see how we're lacking progress? Do you see how we're lacking progress? So if you're asking the question Ricky Why are you not adding more to your position size on Tkq One of the things that I love, You know this is where the big value is for my Lpp team for my live trading sessions. It's to understand the thought process on.

you know the stages of adding more to your position size and if there is no progress being made. If it's not making me any more money, why am I going to try to fuel it more money, right? Any open position is a position that's open to risk and that's one thing that I always try to preach is that if there is no signs of continuous progress, if it's not showing signs that it's potentially going to make you more money, then why get ahead of yourself and fuel it more money, right? Add more money to it? That just it's counterproductive. At that point you're being hopeful and that's counterproductive in the sense of the whole reason that you're managing your position size is to enter an effective and in an effective way. So just wanted to explain to you on why I'm not adding more because it was showing signs of resistance and like you see right now.

we're pulling on back to our previous support at 38.30 so we'll see where Tqq goes. Powell says that if you don't join Lpp, he's going to short the market I Love that sauce is too good I Agree Dawson sauce is too good. Foreign getting rejected right now. we have 12 minutes until Jerome Powell speaks.

Let me go ahead and get that live stream up. All right. Still getting rejected. So uh, will you stream pal? speaking of course? Yep.

Alexander Uh, that's why we are still here on this stream. Right now. it's not just watching the markets react I would have closed out the live stream already if he wasn't speaking right I Know you guys don't want to see my ugly little face here just watching candles go up and down. So in about 11 minutes, Jerome Powell's going to be speaking and that's when um, markets should be reacting to that.

So at 500 more shares here, testing showing signs of a support, going to retest looks like a double bottom. Will you reduce your position size if it breaks below 38.42 I have no reason to reduce. Right now, my position size is very light and it's the whole reason that I enter light because direction is obviously not favorable, right? Um, it would have to be like a very active sell offer to be significant enough for me to be like okay I need to get out of my 2000 shares I mean again, it's all perspective. 2 000 shares.

Uh, in comparison to what I trade with is a very still light position. That's like if you trade with 100 shares you're going in with you know, five or ten shares. Obviously you're still open to risk, but the dollar amount is very my new in comparison to what you can tolerate. But of course some form of risk management is always necessary.

So I took a short position. Congratulations I Do want to remind you that again when Jerome Powell speaks often. not always, nothing's ever 100. but often we tend to see a potential where we see more volatility when he begins to speak.

So just understand that the market can be bearish. Right now, it could continue to be bearish when he begins to speak and how he answers questions. or it could potentially recover and be bullish. So I just want you to be aware of that.

Right now we're reacting to the rate pause. Then he speaks and answers questions and based off of the way that he answers and how he answers will determine if the market continues to sell off or if it rallies again just making you aware. for those that are complete beginners and have never watched an Fomc meeting. So the first part is the rate hike.

The second part is hearing him speak and how the market reacts. It's kind of like an earnings call. an earnings report. There's the earnings report.

and then there's a guidance call, right? There's almost two reactions to every earnings report because the first part is to the report. The second part is the actual guidance. So just want to make sure that you're aware of that. you're asking to lose money trying to short this again.

Hunter Um, that we say that right now I'm obviously going long right now, but just because I'm choosing to do something doesn't mean that other people are wrong, right? You might see it one way, other people might see it another again. Um, all. all we can ever try to encourage one another to do is that whatever opportunities we choose to take advantage of, that, we do it in a way that manages and mitigates risk, right? Uh, everyone? And to each their own. There's no one way of doing what it is that we all do as long as we are.

Forward Thinking In the sense of how much does each trade cost me because every trade comes at some form of cost, right? and the cost is the risk that is about to take place. So as long as you're doing something to manage or mitigate your risk, that's all I can ever encourage a beginner to do. I'm not going to ever be here to tell you when to buy or where to sell. That's something that you need to decide on your own.

And if you can't decide, then you shouldn't be treated in my opinion. Uh, do you think that interest rates will increase I Don't see there to be a reason on why they would increase if rates are pausing, right? So interest rates increase when Fed raises interest rates, right? Because then it makes it more expensive for banks and other institutions to borrow money. So if it makes it more expensive for them to borrow money, then they make it more expensive for us to borrow money, right? therefore slowing down demand. But if they're pausing and then when we get into the rate Cuts then that means that institutions Banks and businesses can begin to lower their prices.

Therefore, again, hopefully Market's picking up and this is what the market tries to factor in in advance. Two more rate hikes coming, bro. Is that that's what he's saying? Okay, there it goes. Going back to retest, it looks like we are still seeing a descending resistance.

Do you see this descending resistance? Something to pay Very close attention to? All right guys. Seven minutes until JP speaks. JP is the head of the Federal Reserve also known as Jerome Powell also known as the greatest of all time also known as the G-o-a-t who loves Jerome path. Let me see a show of hands.

Nope, No one. No one does. the Rolex dude that is correct. The Roly-poly the Submariner the cash printer, the printing machine, the big papa, the papa pal.

we got him what they call him. it was like black Air Force JP Something like that I Don't know what people were saying, but um, you guys crack me up. This live stream is probably one of my favorite live streams because um, it's not even because of me, it's because of you guys. You guys are so entertaining in the live chat.

All I ask you to do is to please try to be appropriate. Um, especially if you're not going to be appropriate, then please be respectful to one another. Okay, that's the biggest thing I don't want to have to mute you or to remove you off of that live chat if you're being disrespectful to one another. Okay Stevie Daddy Oh, I like that one I haven't heard that one yet.

Still need daddy? Get it because he printed uh, or he prints money and he printed the stimmy checks. It's a Stimmy's Daddy Like that. It's creative JP Don't call me Morgan Powell Five minutes, Don't worry Jerome Powell always likes to be fashionably late. One thing that I do want to remind you is that in the very beginning of his speech, he reads off of this paper.

It's a script and the script is always the same. Uh, at least what? I've heard it's always the same for every Fomc meeting. Um. and then he gets to answering questions.

And when he gets to answering questions, that's when we see most of the market react. Okay, here we go right testing lows Jerome Gutierrez JP in order to take over all right testing. Same support. but again, at this point it's not showing any signs of progress.

So all right, foreign I Want to see a show of hand in the live chat? How many Lpp members do we have here? So now there's a handful of people that obviously are just watching. Maybe for the first time or just subscribed to the YouTube channel? How many of you guys are part of Lpp and two down into today's live session Lpp gang? There we go. Hope to meet you soon! What's going on Lux LBP here. Nice There we go I Love to see it.

Happy to see that you guys are still here even closer to Market Close right? These people wake up every morning at Market Open and watch me trade live every morning. So again, um, do I miss a couple of days? maybe out of the month? maybe one or two right? How do you guys think I do right out of going live every single day, right? I Feel like I I try to the best of my ability to go live as much as possible every single day at Market Open anywhere for about 30 minutes to an hour. So again, um, Lpp is the team that I work with every day. They are the team that get to watch me trade live every day.

And if you're a complete beginner again, just ask yourself, would it be a value for you to be able to watch me trade live every morning right at Market open And that's what they essentially get access to. It is a one-time payment, lifetime access and right now we are running our biggest sale. You don't have to join, but again, if you want to check it out, it is the second link in the description down below and if you you know join and again you can watch me trade live as soon as tomorrow. So Lpp.

First time chatting, what's going on, Wrote it up. what's up, what's up? Happy to have you here? OPP Yeah, you know me. It's probably one of the most classic comments. All right.

Two minutes left, two minutes and JP should be speaking is ready for it. Big Papa I Feel like Jerome Pal, at least in my opinion has more influence than President Biden What do you guys think? His influence right now is insane? Anything he says or anything he does right how he speaks on behalf of the Federal Reserve just has so much influence. Here it goes: looks like Market's going to try to recover y. There it goes.

Going back to retests: Okay, we got 30 seconds left still waiting for him to come on. You will wrap five minutes, 30 minutes everything looks Dandy nice pull back, nice push. Oh there we go. All right it is 11 30 a.m which means 2 30.

there it goes, he is going to be on. Let's go ahead and switch it up. Come on Jerome Pal. All right guys, hope that you guys enjoyed this.

I'm gonna put the microphone closer to this so you guys can hear Big Papa speak known as Jerome Pal. and yep if you have any questions just let me know in the live chat and remember you do have to be subscribed to the YouTube channel. uh to participate in the live chat. Thank you.

he's not speaking yet. As you can see, he's not there. He's running fashionably late. His Rolex fell off and he had to get a new one.

There it goes. let's get a round of applause. Look at that. The Money Printer Here Comes The Script Good afternoon.

My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. For the American people, we understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and we remain strongly committed to Bringing Inflation. Back down to our two percent goal: Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve Without price stability, the economy doesn't work for anyone in particular. Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

Since early last year, the Fomc has significantly tightened The Stance of monetary policy. We have raised our policy interest rate by five percentage points, and we've continued to reduce our Securities Holdings at a Brisk pace. We've covered a lot of ground, and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt. In light of how far we've come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and potential headwinds from credit tightening.

Today, we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our Securities Holdings Looking ahead, nearly all committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to two percent over time. That's a big one and I will have more to say about monetary policy. After briefly reviewing economic developments, the U.S economy slowed significantly last year, and recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. Although growth in consumer spending has picked up this year, activity in the housing sector remains weak, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates.

Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business. Fixed Investment committee participants generally expect to subdued growth to continue. In our summary of economic projections, the median projection has real GDP growth at 1.0 percent this year and 1.1 percent next year. Watch it for the break below the median estimate of the longer run normal growth rate.

The labor market remains very tight. Over the past three months, payroll job gains averaged a robust 283 000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate moved up, but remained low in May at 3.7 percent. There are some signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming into better balance.

The labor force participation rate has moved up in recent months, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years. Nominal wage growth has shown signs of easing and job vacancies have declined so far this year. While the jobs to workers Gap has declined, labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers. Fomc participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time, easing upward pressures on inflation.

The median unemployment rate projection in the SCP Rises to 4.1 percent at the end of this year, and 4.5 percent at the end of next year. Inflation remains well above our longer run two percent goal over the 12 months ending in April. Total Pce process Prices rose 4.4 percent, excluding the volatile food and energy categories. Core Core Pce prices arose 4.7 percent in May.

The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index came in at four percent, and the change in the core CPI was 5.3 percent. Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run High and the process of getting inflation back down to two percent has a long way to go. The median projection in the SCP for total Pce inflation is 3.2 percent this year, 2.5 percent next year, and 2.1 percent in 2025..

core Pce inflation, which excludes volatile and food and energy prices, is projected to run higher than total inflation, and the median projection has been revised in the SCP up to 3.9 percent this year. Despite elevated inflation, longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. The Fed's monetary policy actions are Guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and price and stable prices. For the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation.

We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our two percent objective. As I noted earlier, since early last year, we have raised our policy rate by five percentage points. We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, especially housing and investment. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.

The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain in light of how far we've come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and potential headwinds from credit technology. Sold 5000 shares. he decided at today's meeting to maintain the target range for the Federal Funds rate at five to five and a quarter percent, to continue the process of significantly reducing our Securities Holdings As I noted earlier, nearly nearly all committee participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year to hold the target range steady to allow the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.

In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to two percent. Over time, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments In our SCP participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the Federal Funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward. If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the Federal Funds rate will be 5.6 percent at the end of this year, 4. 4.6 percent at the end of 2024, and 3.4 percent at the end of 2025..

for the end of this year, the median projection is a half percentage Point higher than in our March projections application. To add as always that these projections are not a committee decision or plan. If the economy does not evolve as projected, the path for policy will adjust as appropriate to Foster our maximum Employment and Price Stability goals. We will continue to make our decisions, being by meaning, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the balance of risks, we remain committed to Bringing Inflation bringing inflation back down to our two percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below Trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do at the FED is in service to our public mission.

We will do everything we can to achieve our maximum Employment and Price Stability goals. Thank you and I look forward to your questions that waiting will not be counterproductive at a time when the monthly pace of core inflation is still so elevated. interest rate sensitive sectors like housing. While they felt the drag of the past Fed actions have started to recover in some regions and financial conditions, you know, most recently we're easing.

So I guess I would I guess I would go back to the beginning of this tightening cycle to address that. So as we started our rate hikes early last year, we said there were three issues that would need to be addressed kind of in sequence and that of the speed of tightening, the level to which rates would need to go and then in a period of time over which we'd need to keep policy restricted. For those that are asking, uh, where my P L is I'll show you guys right now, but when it comes down to trading during my live sessions I don't like to look at how much I'm up or down as it's not important to the actual trade. But I'll show you guys right now consecutive 75 basis point hikes.

We moderated to a pace of 50 of a 50 basis point hike and then this year to three 25 basis point hikes at sequential meetings. So it seemed to us to make obvious sense to moderate our rate hikes as we got closer to our destination. So the decision to consider not hiking at every meeting and ultimately to hold rage steady at this meeting I would just say it's a continuation of of that process. The main issue that we're focused on now is determining the extent of additional policy forming that may be appropriate to return inflation to two percent over time, so that the pace of the increases and the ultimate level of increases are separate variables.

Given how far it we have come, it may make sense for rates to move higher, but at a more moderate pace. I Want to stress one more thing and that is that the committee decision made today was only about this meeting. We didn't make any decision about uh, going forward, including what would happen at the next meeting including we did not decide or really discuss anything about going to an every other meeting kind of an approach or really any other approach. We really were focused on what to do at this meeting.

That's actually really important. There's no kind of initial debate about the possibility of July any sense of the initial support at this stage for that move. So again, we didn't We didn't make a decision about July I mean of course it came up in the in the in the meeting from time to time. but really the focus was on what to do today.

I would say about about July Two things one decision hasn't been made to I Do expect that it will be a live meeting that's good to know. Uh, thanks. Howard Schneider with the Reuters I Was just wondering if you could help us understand that I like that a lot because it feels like there's been a level shift in the in the dots. Um, stronger.

GDP Uh, less of a hit to unemployment, slower progress on inflation, and I'm wondering in this sort of where's the disinflation coming from the labor Market's going to be stronger. It looks like it's not coming from there. Uh, demand is not coming down all that fast. according to GDP, you've doubled your your estimate of GDP.

So what's the what's the narrative here? It seems like it's getting more Immaculate rather than more messy. So you're right that the data came in I would say uh, consistent with but on the high side of expectations. So and if you go back to the old the former SCP um, the last SCP in March you will see that growth moved up. These are not huge moves, but growth estimates moved up a bit.

Unemployment estimates moved down a bit five minutes, installation estimates moved up to bid and you know the all three of those kind of point in the same direction. Which is, you know that perhaps more restraint will be necessary than we had thought at the last meeting. So although the level, frankly is is pretty, the level of 5.6 is pretty consistent if you think about it. Where the Federal Funds rate was trading before the banking watch for the break above.

So we're kind of going back to that. So your question is, where is the where's the disinflation going to come from And you know I Don't think the story has really changed. We the committee has consistently said and believed that the process of getting inflation down is going to be a gradual one. It's going to take some time.

it is. and uh, I think you go back to the three-part frame. it's breaking above population Let's see, we think of as good an indicators you can have for where inflation's going forward. You start with Goods conditions.

They've definitely improved a substantial amount, but if you talk to people in business they will say it's not back to where it was. So that's that's one thing and that should enable Goods prices to continue because because inflate continue to come down over time in terms of Housing Services inflation. that's another big piece and you are seeing there that new rents, new new leases are are coming in at low levels Back in the green for Tkq goes through the pipeline in fact, did we call it any forecasts that people are making right now about inflation coming down this year will will contain a big dose of this year and next year will contain a good amount of of, uh, disinflation from that source and that's some higher highs probably going to come slower than we would affect. That leaves you know the big sector which is a little more than half.

Pardon me of the core PC Inflation That's non-housing services and you know we see only the earliest signs of disinflation there. It's a sector. It's a very Broad and diverse sector of the largest would be wage costs. It's a service sector, so it's It's heavily labor intensive and think many analysts would say that the key to getting inflation down there is to have a continuing loosening in labor market conditions which we have seen.

We have actually seen you know go through a number of indicators suggesting there's been some losing in labor market conditions. We need to see that continue. I Would almost say that the the conditions that we need to see in place to get inflation down or or coming into place and that would be growth meaningfully below. Trend It would be a labor market that's loosening.

It would be good pipelines getting healthier and healthier and that kind of thing. But they're they're the things are in place that we need to see. but the process of that actually working on inflation is going to take some time. Potential support here for ask: Kiki Q Okay, Nick tomorrow for the Wall Street Journal Chirpal What's the value in pausing and signaling future hikes versus uh, just hiking now? I Mean not to be flippant, but I don't lose weight just by buying the gym membership I Have to actually go to the gym.

16 of your colleagues put down a higher year-end 23 rate today. A majority of you think you're going to have to go up by 50 basis points this year. so why not just rip off the Band-Aid and raise rates today? So the first, that's a good question. The question of speed is a separate question from the question from the from from that of the level.

Okay, so and I think if you look at the SCP that is our estimate our individual is. it's really accumulation of our individual estimates of how far to go. I mentioned how we got to those numbers In terms of speed, it's it's what I said at the beginning which is speed was very important last year as we get closer and closer to the destination and according to the SCP, we're not so far away from the destination in most people's accounting. Uh, it's It's reasonable.

It's common, tends to go a little slower just as it was reasonable to go from 75 basis points to 50 to 25 at every meeting. And so the committee thought overall that it was appropriate to moderate the pace if only slightly and their benefits to that. So that gives us more information to make decisions. we may try to make better decisions.

I Think it allows the economy a little more time to adapt as we as we make our decisions going forward. and we'll get to see you know we haven't Really, We don't know the full extent of of the consequences of the banking turmoil that we've seen. We it would be early to see those, but we don't know what the extent is. We'll have some more time to see that unfolding.

It's just the idea that we're trying to watch for lower lows. and uh, this is. if you think of the two things as separate variables then I think I think that the the skip I shouldn't call this the decision. Yeah, it makes sense.

One, uh, June employment uh. With only the June employment and the CPI report for June uh due to be released before the July meeting, you get the ECI After you get the Senior Loan Officer survey after you get some Bank earnings at the end of next month. What incremental information will the committee be using to inform their judgment on whether this is in fact a skip or a longer pause? Well, I think you're adding that to the the data that we've seen since the last meeting too. You know we since we chose to maintain rates at this meeting, is it'll really be a three-month period of data that we can look at.

I think it's a full quarter and I think you can. You can draw more conclusions from that than you account for. Many six any six week period. We'll look at those things.

We'll also look at the evolving risk picture. We'll look at what's happening in the financial sector and we'll make a decision going. Gina Thanks for taking our questions Gina Smiley Face New York Times You obviously, in your forecast, marked up the sort of path for growth, mark down the path for unemployment, and marked up the path for inflation pretty notably. I Wonder you know since March what has changed to make you think that the economies a lot more resilient and inflation is going to be a lot more stubborn? And given that, you know, why do you feel confident that this is as high as you're going to have to revise the Federal Funds rate? Or do you think it's possible we could have even a higher than 5.6 terminal by the end of this this cycle, you know.

I I mean on the first part I Just think we're following the data and also, is that what was the question? Let me use the labor Market I Think has surprised many if not all analysts over the last couple of years with its extraordinary resilience. really. And um, it's it's just remarkable. And that's really.

If you think about it, that's what's driving it's it's job creation. It's it's uh, wages moving up. It's it's supporting spending, which in turn is supporting hiring. And it's it's really the engine it seems.

that is, that it's driving the economy. So it's it's really the data. In terms of, you know, we always write down at these meetings what we think the appropriate terminal rate will be at the end of this year. That's that's how we do it.

It's based on our our own individual assessments of what the most likely path of the economy economies it can be. It can actually in reality wind up being lower or higher. Yeah, you know there's really no way to know, but it's getting closer to overbought level. People just adds up today and as a data come in getting close to Power Hour reading period It Could wind up back in the same place, but it really will be data driven I Can't I can't tell you that that I Ever have a lot of confidence that we can see where the where the Federal Funds rate will be that far in advance.

Mr Chairman, thanks for taking my question. Um, you had said back at the end of May that you thought risks were getting closer to being into balance. Is that still the case? or has your mind changed about the balance of racism? And also, could you give us an idea the NBC would be a sufficiently restrictive funds rate is the obviously the current rate according to the committee Restrictive. Is it five? six? Is it Six words: Especially restricted? Thank you North of 4 500.

ready again. I've sold it all. I'm choosing to play it safe. Don't copy me.

Still going up. We're getting closer. You guys can do whatever you guys want to do it. There it goes.

Risks into inflation or to the upside. still 5600 I Think we're there. Ten dollars and fifty two cents 51 If you look at the uh, there it goes. um, it's a full range of I Had fun with you guys today.

The core data I really did start seeing a lot of progress over the last year. Headline: Of course inflation has come down seriously. but as you know, we look at core as a better indicator of where inflation overall what I'll do so coming out and then beginning to come down best. That's what we want to see.

Of course, that's what we want to see. And um I think it's also. We understand that there are lags, but remember that it's it's more than a year since Financial conditions began tightening I think it's I think the reason we're we're comfortable. pausing is that we are still much of the tightening took place over last summer.

very over extended. It's reasonable to think that some of that may come into effect. so we're you know I think stretching out the into a more moderate pace is appropriate to allow you to make that Judgment of sufficiency There it goes with more data over time. hi chair Powell Rachel Siegel from The Washington Post Thanks for taking our questions.

We'll end with Rachel when you're considering when you would hike again throughout the course of the year, Are there things that you would expect to kick in as those lag effects come come into effect that would inform your decisions. Have you learned things over the past year that give you some sense of timeline for when to expect those lags to come into effect? So it's a it's a challenging thing in economics, it's it's sort of standard thinking that monetary policy affects economic activity with long and variable legs. Of course, these days Financial conditions begin to tighten well in advance of actual rate hikes. so if you if you look back when we were lifting off, we started talking about lifting off by the time we had lifted off a two-year which is a pretty good estimate of where policy is going, had gone from 20 basis points to 200 basis points.

So in that sense, tightening happens much sooner than it used to. In a world where where news was in newspapers and not, you know, not on on The Wire So that's that's different. But it's still the case that what you see is interest sensitive spending is affected very, very quickly. So housing and durable goods and things like that, but broader demand and spending and asset values and things like that, they just take longer and you can pretty much find research to support whatever answer you would like on that.

So there's not any certainty or agreement in the profession on how long it takes, So you know then that makes it challenging, of course. So we're We're looking at the calendar. We're looking at what's happening in the economy. We're having to make these judgments.

and again, it's one of the main reasons why it makes sense to go at a slightly more moderate Pace Now as we seek that that, uh, ultimate I can't point to, um, that ultimate endpoint I can't point to a specific data point I Think we'll see it when we see inflation. you know, really, really flattening out reliably and then starting to soften I Think we'll know that we're that it's worth working and ideally by by taking a little more time, we won't go well past the air, the level where we need to go I Was curious if you could give us an update on what you're seeing on credit tightening since the bank incidents from March and how you're teasing that out apart from these lag effects, so it's it's too early still to to try to assess the full extent of what that might mean. Uh, and you know that's something we're going to be watching of course. and you know if we were to see, um, what we would view as significant tightening beyond what would normally be expected because of this channel, then you know we would factor that into account on on, uh in making raid decisions.

So that's um, that's how we think about it. Let's go to Chris All right guys, again, you guys can YouTube Search! Uh, Fomc press conference if you guys want to continue to watch it I Had a lot of fun with you guys I Hope that you guys enjoyed this little live session. This is kind of just a little snippet again. I Trade Live every morning for about 30 minutes to an hour exclusively with the Lpp team.

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I Appreciate Dom I Appreciate your time. hope that you enjoyed this session again. Walked away with a little bit over five thousand dollars on the day you guys saw all my entries. You guys saw all of my exits and you guys saw how I averaged up into that position and how I quickly reduced my position size.

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Let's make sure that we're in the year.