Cpi Data report was just released and this is everything that you need to know about the actual report. What's going on guys? It's Ricky Here with Techbook Solutions Hope that you guys are all having an amazing Wednesday Previous inflation rate right was four percent. The forecast for today was 3.1 percent. We came in at three percent.

So yes, we came in lower than expected from highs of 9.1 percent. We're now at overall CPI of three percent. now. Is this good or bad? Well, of course, right.

we're closer to that two percent. Target But one of the things that we have to understand is the main focus for the Federal Reserve is core CPI which according to today's CPI data report still sits at. If I'm not mistaken, it's four point. Yep, four point eight percent for the last 12 months and again, that's all the items less food and energy.

To break this down very quickly for the month of June the biggest drop that we saw was in utility gas pipe Services of a drop of negative 1.7 percent. The biggest increase that I saw on my side was an increase of one percent and that's on gasoline types. One of the things that we talked about during our live trading session today with the Lpp team is very, very simple when trying to break down. just to let you guys know, they haven't updated the PDF so that's not available just yet.

But when it comes down to the CPI data report, you have to remember we just added a new month of June and then removed the old month of June and that was a big removal right for the month of July. What we're taking away is literally nothing 0.0 So that means if our current inflation rate is at three percent and we add anything, inflation therefore will go up even with that formula, right of how it is that they calculate the actual inflation rate because it's calculated based off of the previous 12 12 months with seasonal adjustment, right? And if we already removed June which was one of the the biggest jump that we saw in 2022, Now, we got rid of all the big pieces of the pie of what made up our inflation. Now we have all of these small players, but unfortunately for July which is the one that's going to be reported on August 10th of 2023, we're only going to be, or we're going to be removing nothing. Which means that when we report whatever it is that's reported in July if it's anything above nothing, then we should see an increase.

now. Obviously, if it comes in at 0.0 then it should be fairly the same. and if it comes in negative, then that would be quite a surprise, right? But just wanted to make sure that you guys understood that that the big part of when inflation was going up and up and up month after month is kind of pretty much over right. We've removed all of that from our current inflation rate and now we have the main court right that make up the overall 4.8 percent for core CPI or three percent, uh, for what makes up overall CPI So just something to take into consideration when it comes down to QQQ I'm actually quite surprised that it's struggling this much, right? The inflation report uh, that was released is actually very, very good.

It came in lower than expected, but what does this mean from the Federal Reserve right? Well, based off of how the Market's reacting I think it's somewhat mixed, right? because we had a really strong rally. But then we began to pull on back nearly only up about half of a percent. And one of the things that I wanted to show you was the Fed rate monitor tool. What the current fed? Uh, what the current expectation is for the Federal Reserve to either raise pause or drop interest rates Because that's the big concern for a lot of people.

Right on July 26th of this year of this month is when the next interest rate hike could be right. And according to this and again, I'll refresh it right in front of you. there is a 94.2 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. According to this Fed rate monitor tool that's from Investing.com there's a 5.8 percent probability that the FED will pause.

Now, is that a good thing or a bad thing? Well, let me just ask you something very quickly, right? This is what we talked about during our live trading session today. If you see that we have a very, very strong labor market, what do you mean by that? Well, again, unemployment's very, very low. It's nearly at, you know, 70-year lows, right? We have a very strong labor market, but then now we also have overall inflation coming down as expected, right core. CPI which is the only thing that the Federal Reserve can actually influence is still double of what we really want want it to be right.

We want that to be, Of course, Epi at two percent, but it's currently at 4.8 percent. So could the Federal Reserve justify being aggressive front loading interest rate hikes to bring down inflation Knowing that we have a strong labor market? Well, if we had a weak labor market, that would be more of a concern, right? Because then our economy could probably not tolerate it. But because we do have a strong labor market, if our unemployment rate starts to climb a little bit, it won't still be much of a concern. We're literally at 70 year lows for this unemployment rate.

So I Think that's why there's such a strong bias that the Federal Reserve even after this very, very strong CPI data report that the Federal Reserve could potentially raise rates as soon as July 26th. But again, no one can predict the future. I'm not going to pretend like I Can you know even that investing.com tool. Anyone can come up with anything on how they can assume what the Federal Reserves going to do and at the end of the day it's always it might be different, right? and I just wanted you to have a little bit of a better understanding of what the tools are that are made available to get a better understanding of what currently is going on.

And remember that CPI data report is a website that's available to all of you guys, it's Bls.gov forward slash CPI And again, if there's any questions that you guys might have about you know, as an absolute beginner or getting started. If there's something that I explained in this video that you want to understand a little bit more, send me a direct message via Discord That's the first link in the description down below and I'd love to answer any questions you might have. I Really do appreciate you guys this time. Congrats to all the Bulls out there.

Hope that we're in a thumbs up. Please consider subscribing And like always, let's make sure that we end the year on a green note. Take it easy team.