Dan The messy of AI I mean that's a that's a tall order right there I Think that's really what Carp's built and in my opinion, it's still undiscovered as just a broader AI play. which is why I believe they're the Messiah I Think there's a golden path right now for them to monetize what we view is potentially a trillion dollar market opportunity. and I think investors still have not recognized what this Golden Goose could be. Hey Palantir investor.

On the one hand, this stock just flew up by 10 just today. On the other hand, Dan Ives one of the most respected analysts in the market and the guy who's been one of the main Tesla bulls for the past five years, just call Palantir the Messy Lionel Messi that is of. AI When you think about some of these newer AI applications in real time, they're already being applied on the battlefield. Case in point: Ukraine Palantir is a key example of that.

Do you think this is a situation where investors don't fully understand what this company does because so much of it is defense. Tech And yes, I realize it's expanding out to the commercial side too, but there's a lot that they can't talk about. For example, Well, I think that's the biggest misperception I Can tell you, you know we're talking to many in the 202 area code. The reputation of Palantir is speaks for itself in terms of you know, any sort of operations three-letter agencies.

Now, if you're an Enterprise CIO and this is the conversations I've had you're looking toward AI platform approach. Palantir is potentially the first call. So just the commercial business of Palantir is driving almost 240 million per quarter in revenues. The U.S clients are growing by 50 per year.

U.S Revenue is going by 26 per year And the net dollar retention, even though it's been declining a little bit lately, Is it 111 percent? Now this number right here is where I think it's most interesting: 50 million dollars per client for the top 20 clients of Palantir. So imagine what I'm talking about here. and that's why I think in this: AI Gold Rush where I View is the fourth Industrial revolution. Of course it's Nvidia Microsoft top of the mound with Nadella you look at second, third, Fourth Derivatives right now Palantir front and center and that's why I Think this is a stock.

You look at our bulkheads model I Think this is ultimately 25 dollars and I think as they execute, more investors start to look at it. The top 20 clients of Palantir are paying 50 million dollars each on average to this company to do whatever it does. So let me ask you a question: if you're a Fortune 500 company, who would you pay 50 million a year? It has to be somebody who drives results and results. They drive.

Indeed, the other thing Dan I Was kind of curious for your take on this because there is a meme stockiness to Palantir too. I'm wondering how much of that factors in into your calculation. Yeah, no doubt. I Mean there's a huge retail presence, right? I think.

But also I think this is one where maybe retail has been a head institutional in terms of understanding the actual potential AI Story I Can tell you my conversations today. it's really institutional investors being like, okay, what am I missing in this story Where is the actual total Drugstore Market Opportunity and can they go from government to commercial? So in 2015 Volunteers started working with Airbus on their Flagship plane the A350. They've made it faster, safer, better, cheaper. But mainly they've cut the production time of This Plane by 33 percent now carrying this production Time by 33 percent.

It's kind of a big deal. Let me show you why, Because we're talking about a lot of moving. Parts These are the moving Parts We're talking about, ladies and gentlemen: Five million Parts Literally in this plane, it's manufactured over four countries, hundreds of teams, eight different factories Palantir came in, made this whole thing into one holistic. View and with its AI system, they've managed to cut the production time of This Plane by 33 percent.

They looked at the production lines, at the schedules, the parts, the deliveries defects. Human Resources Work orders quality. Everything went into one big pile. Data goes into the pile.

AI finds the answers, allows you to cut production Time by 33 percent on this massive plane, data piled up into one big pile AI drives better decisions. That's literally the business model of Palantir. That's all it is. The Simplicity of it is actually quite insane.

Take all the data you can find, it's all siled completely separately. Put it all together. Get an AI to help you make better decisions with the massive amounts of data that you have, but you don't know how to apply to get things faster, cheaper, better. Well then what you get 33 33 decline in the production time of the A350 because I think when you start to look at that for them is really the opportunity.

And if you're a CIO of an Enterprise there's no better reference accounts than those. and there's the two or two areas. But what does that look like? I mean if you think about it? Okay, so we have. it's very opaque.

what they're doing on the on the military side of it. I'm just curious. what does that look like on the commercial side? Like what are you seeing there and especially I Know they're growing some clients and so forth. What are you seeing there? I'd seen from a platform first.

in terms of scale and in terms of actually use cases, they're probably the first call. I I Think they're probably in this market. The purest AI Play out there now. they built it, Others are coming, but it just speaks to our view in this fourth.

Industrial Revolution Palantir is going to be a big player the first time I Ever heard a major company say machine learning came from Palatine Yeah, this is a company that gives me 350 million dollars in free cash flow. So they have three billion dollars of cash with only 250 million of debt. 10 times more cash than that. They have assets of 3.7 billion.

3.7 billion of assets liabilities of 880 million. Four times more assets than liabilities 10 times more cash than debt. Gross margin of 80 percent growth currently at 20 year over year in a bad year I Don't think volunteer keeps growing at 20 for long I Think their growth is going to be exponential, but even now in this horrible year, high interest rates. the FED all that good stuff 20 growth I Don't think there's anybody who looks at this objectively without the hate and the preconceived notions about this company who says this is a bad setup.

If I showed you this financials without Palantir in the headline, you wouldn't say this is a bad company. Now there's another thing that people like to bash Palantir for, which is the stock based compensation. Now there's a few things I want you to understand here. Number One Penalty Started off with massive Stockbridge composition Because it went a very unusual path.

It went to the market, not as an initial public offering, not as an IPO It didn't go to the market as a SPAC God forbid Of course because it's not a trash company, it did something very unique. Palantir does things different. Instead of being in the Silicon Valley, they're up in Denver in Colorado I don't know where they are right. Instead of going an IPO route, they did a DPO a DPO is a direct public offering.

Can't recall a lot of these. Basically what it does, it cuts out the middlemen instead of the banks giving the stock to their friends and VIPs and then you only getting it is an IPO. Later, much overpriced palette decided to cut out the middlemen carrot Banks And the way they did it, very simple have the employees and the current shareholders create the market for the stock. So to do that, they had to do a massive dilution in order for these guys to be able to create the market for the retail investors and the institutional investors.

But all of this delusion happened before planetarium Public. So this delusion that everybody keeps showing. that's massive dilution. It all happened before the DPO, Well, mainly before the DPO in order to allow for the DPO to even happen.

since the DPO Since the direct public offering, palantir has been consistently coming down on SBC. In fact, if you look at Stockbridge compensation options Rsus, what not. as a percentage of Revenue of Palantir just three years ago, it was 75 of the revenues of volunteer. Right now, it's at 22 percent now.

Some of you may ask, Well, Tom isn't 22 kind of high? Well, look, let's look at a comparable. who knows, right? Snowflake, which is a great comparable for Pilot. Here is it 18 percent? So if Snowflake has 18 of its revenues, go back as a stock based compensation and Palantir is at 22 percent. I'm gonna say you know it's not too far.

It seems on par with Snowflake and Snowflake is a Warren Buffett investment. So if Snowflake is good for 22 percent, sorry 18 I Apologize. The volunteer is good For 22, it's in the same realm. It's within the realm of reason.

So I don't see any issue with that I Think it's absolutely normal. Now going a little bit deeper here. Look, the company is already Gap profitable for two quarters in a row. and it's supposed to be another two quarters profitable.

Until the end of the year, the customer profanity went up 41 year over year. In the last quarter, the price of sales of Valentine is 19.. it's not cheap. It's not a cheap company.

This isn't a value play. Let's put it this way. it's a growth stock. 19.

Price to sales is not cheap. It's very expensive. but again, how expensive? Well again, let's look at Snowflake. Snowflake is currently trading at 25..

So if we compare Palantir to Snowflake, just a reasonable comparison As far as you know, the amount of revenues, the style of the market they're in. Although they have absolutely different products that has nothing to do with each other, right? Snowflake is trading at 25 price to sales and Warren Buffett is investing in it. Palente is at 19. it's cheaper Stockbridge compensation is a percentage Revenue Well, Snowflake is 18 volunteers and 22.

They're in the same neighborhood. So I would say this isn't unusual for a high potential high growth company. And now we're getting to the interesting part. This is my bear case from Palantir where I think Pioneer is going to be in five years on the bear case assuming it doesn't get to exponential growth assuming it stays with 20 growth.

So if Planeteer only grows 20 per year for the next five years in 2028, you have 6.2 billion dollars of revenues. If they get to 35 Ibida, which for a software company is absolutely normal, then we're talking about 2.2 billion dollars of ebitda at the 25 multiple. Which is okay for a software company. For a high growth stock company, 54 billion is the valuation I'm getting for my bear case in five years.

So at the very least if Planetir maintains 20 which I think it can do a lot more. But if anything gets stuck, it stagnates on 20 per year, it doesn't grow much and it becomes an average SAS business with 35 EBA margin apparent is worth 54 billion in five years, which gives it a 46 upside 46 upside from today. So if my Bear case, my bear case absolute Bearcat says that Palantir will give me 46 of return in the next five years which is about nine percent per year if the S P 500 is giving me nine percent per year and this company on the bear case gives me nine percent per year. But this company has the potential in my personal opinion, not Financial Advice my personal opinion: it has the potential to go to a trillion dollar valuation, but in the bear case, it's going to give me the same as the S P 500.

I'm going to play this card now again. as a long-term investor, there's something you should know. Recently the stock went up like crazy. Now How crazy! I've made a little chart to show you how insane and how fast this happened.

Now this thing makes sense to me. it doesn't get to you, but hold on a second, it will in a second because this thing is super super important. Now this is what happened to the stock, give or take year. To date, it started with a 52-week low, about six dollars.

It drove up to 19 about a week ago which is the 52-week high and it's currently settled in at 17.8 dollars which is today's end of trade day. Now here's how I look at it as a long-term investor. In my opinion, the best way to invest in a stock like Palantir is to dollar cost average over time. that means I don't panic sale I don't fomo I don't lump sum every single week I take a certain amount of money which I calculate for my budget and I put it in the stock market and I divide it in between the stocks I want to invest in a Tesla a Palantir the S P 500 all by the way things I have in my portfolio and then they just put it in and I make sure that I put 30 of the money on the side.

So if my allocation says that I can spend a thousand dollars investing in the stock market every single week. Okay cool. So if a thousand bucks is what I have to put in the market every single week, so I'm gonna take seven hundred dollars and I'm gonna put it to work. 300 is going to go to the side those seven hundred dollars which I am putting into the market they will go towards palantir towards Tesla towards SB 500.

In your case, it's different stocks and that's okay. Everybody have their own stocks right? That 300 stays to the side now I'm dollar cost averaging I'm dollars averaging. but then something happens the minute the stock whether it's palantir or Tesla drops below the threshold line. the 10 threshold line right here.

the 10 threshold line which is a line that signifies 10 below the 52-week high right here. So if this is the 52-week high, 10 below it is 17 and 10 cents, 17 and 10 cents is going to be right here. So the minute the stock drops below 17 and 10 cents, I'm in the green zone in the green zone I'm now dollar cost averaging at a double pace. and where's this double coming from from that? 300 from that thirty percent I've put to the side every time I've allocated money to the stock market I'm now taking money out of that 30 pool that I have lying on the side and now I'm doubling down I'm doubling down I'm doubling down the whole time.

This thing is in the green zone I'm dollar cross averaging every single week. but at the Double Pace instead of a hundred dollars each week, two hundred dollars each week. But the moment this stock goes into the Red Zone it goes above 17.10 above the 10 threshold line, it goes to the Red Zone and dollar cost averaging normally. I'm no longer doubling down I'm all across averaging normally as long as it stays in the red zone right now, the stock, as you can see right here, is in the red zone.

It's above seventy dollars and ten cents. It's currently flying up as long as this thing is in the red zone. I'm not doubling down on the stock I'm normally DCA buy more of the stock when it's dropping. That's the right way to do it.

buying a little bit less of the stock when it's flying up. That's also the right way to do it. The absolute wrong way to do it is to sell and ignore the stock when it's dropping and bike like crazy because it just went up because you have this fear of missing out. Oh My.

God. I've missed the crane. Oh no guys, if you are excited about Palantir and you may or maybe not, this isn't financial advice. I'm not telling you to buy yourself volunteer, but if you are excited about Palantir I'm going to say right now you have five years to invest into the stock.

This thing has time. If your dollar cost average over the next five years slowly using the green zone in the Red Zone you'll be fine. There's no reason to rush into anything in the stock market. Definitely not a growth stock like Palantir.

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would love to see you there. Thank you so much! Shout out to Then Ice for his beautiful analysis of volunteer. Thank you all and I guess I'll see you next week when I do my Dan knives interview.