The possibility that you might want to take Exu via this this fund. so maybe we should back up a little. Okay, just want to remind you that during Co he came on and said how everything is falling apart, the sky is falling, hell is coming, things are coming, bad stuff's coming like there's a tsunami coming. But then we found out he had a short against the market.

So Bill Amman Billionaire. He bought a $27 million credit default swap that netted him a stagging you ready that turned it into $2.6 billion. Enter this idea of X So one of the things you told the Wall Street Journal over the weekend was that you would be open. Absolutely, You said sure to using this vehicle if you will to take X Elon Musk's formerly Twitter uh public.

The answer is I have a lot of respect for Musk. I think Twitter is a really important platform I think he's made tremendous uh improvements to the platform and I think it's a unique you know, very difficult to disrupt kind of asset and one that could, uh, you know, grow and he's obviously going to pursue different lines of of business. So I think it's I think it's quite interesting I Don't have information on how the business is doing I have no idea whether he has any interest in doing something I think El has plenty of experience and enough backers to take this thing public without Bill Actman with all due respect. Have you spoken to him about it? I have not I've not.

So this is just they asked me a question. would you consider it? The answer is absolutely because I like the business I like musk and I think it's important and of course he is cloud chasing here by name dropping X He was asked about this and he said he has no concrete plans of taking X public. He never spoke about it to El I mean he just used this to promote his platform which is a good marketing move. but I don't think X is going public anytime soon.

Helan just showed you with SpaceX He's not in theh to take companies public because a lot of bad juju comes with taking a company public. A lot of scrutiny, a lot of headaches. If you can keep them private and make money, he's probably going to keep doing it like we SpaceX and you had the CEO of Twitter Talk about Twitter hitting well. X Actually he profitability in 2024 so if he's H profitability right now, if he's starting to turn this ship around, he probably doesn't need it to make it public.

but he may, but will Bill Amman play a role in this I Highly doubt it. Why do you think that all of these facts were such such failures? Because the deal was such a terrible deal for the counterparty for the company that only the worst of companies would transact with the back? He has a change that solves one of the issues of spaxs, which is the fact that the investors put the money in before they know which company they're investing in. The Simplicity of this is no shareholder warrants so it's common stock. They understand that right? They understand that we're going to buy a billion dollars at $25 a share.

We're going to do that in front of them right. time will pass. Hold on the it's going to receive the same scrutiny as any IPO We have to file an IPO prospectus with the company that has to get approved by the go effective by the SEC it's got to get approved by the SEC then the rights trade for 20 days So people can say oh, the rights are trading for a penny This is a bad deal if the rights are trading for three4 doll a share. People say okay, the market likes this transaction so there's a lot more information here for the retail investor than there is typically.

So if you think of typical IPO right, you've got to sort of expose yourself to the world with a perspective well before knowing whether you can raise any money and then you're subject to the market and if the Market's there and the shers the investors like you Stars a line. You raise your money. You don't know what the price is, you don't know how much you don't whether it gets done. That's the typical deal.

What we've done is we kind of reversed that whole process. Imagine a world in which you sit down with an investor. the investor does due diligence on your business, likes your business, likes the management says you know what? I'll invest a billion and a half dollars at $25 a share regardless of what the market does. Between the time we file with the SEC and the time the prospectus gets approved.

What do you say? I think every IPO uh investor would say that sounds like a pretty good deal I Say what if you need So we'll guarantee you you a billion a half dollars. We guarantee you a fixed price and by the way, if you need more. we have a whole bunch of other investors who' like us who've invested alongside us before and they're going to get to invest at the same price. What do you say? And that's what we call Persian Square Spark Holdings But his thing doesn't solve the main issue with Spaxs, which is the fact of the laxed regulatory approach to this.

I mean I'd like to have companies that went through the meat grinder of an IPO for a reason. If you're going to use this relaxed Reg approach to you know, speed through the requirements of going public. Not a fan of that. We've seen Lordan we've seen Nicola We've seen a whole bunch of companies and I would say abuse this You' always have Bad actors abusing structures like this I Don't trust any one person I trust the mid grinder of the IPO It's not the most efficient thing in the world, but it clear, you know, clears out a lot of garbage.

I Want to talk about uh, interest rates? sure and where you think we really are headed because you've made some provocative statements about where you think the 10e is ultimately going to go, Where this is all headed. I'm curious what you think that ultimately means to equities. We were just uh, speaking downstairs. Uh about mortgage rates and and and whether they stay at the 7 8% level And and what that you know, do things start to break as a result? Sure.

So uh, few things one: I Think the FED is probably done. Uh I Think the economy is starting to slow. Uh I Think the level of real interest rates is high enough to slow things down. You know High Mortgage rates High Car rates High credit card rates they're starting to really have.

You know, an impact on the economy. Economy is still solid. Um, but it's definitely weakening. Seeing lots of evidence of weakening in the economy What our? You know we we our belief when you know two-year treasury was 12 basis points was going to five, right? Uh, we no longer have that bet on our the BET Only bet if you will, it's really a hedge at this point is that long-term rates the 30-year treasury is likely to go higher.

You know, go into the mid fives as our expectation or what happens there. I Don't know that the tenure has to go meaningfully above 5% because you're seeing some weakness in the economy, but on a long-term basis, we think structural inflation is going to be persistently higher. In a world like that, you know the government shouldn't be able to borrow it four and 3/4 fixed for 30 years. So I think long-term rates go higher.

I Don't think mortgage rates morgage. The spread between the 10e treasury and mortgage rates is about the widest it's been, so you could see a world in which the 10year treasury goes up and mortgage rates don't go meaningfully higher than where they are now. A lot of that has to do with break the consumer though. at some point these you know, seven to 10 year arms and what's going on are going to roll over.

People going to have some problems No. and then what happens to the regional? Banks I Mean this is this? Well, most people, a big percentage of the country has fortunately fixed rate mortgages at you know, three and a half 4% or less. Um, a lot of businesses. A lot of the big companies have fixed rate debt that's extended for a relatively long period of time.

So I think the yes there are. You know people have barred shortterm right at a low fixed rate and are going to get repriced and you look at a lot of, uh, commercial real estate, uh investors that're going to have a very challenging period I Think that's really the big threat? Um, he also said that the FED is done. no more rate hikes. To me, the question depends if the FED is done on Energy prices which we have no control over Energy prices which the interest rates and the United States and the FED has no control over are going to determine how quick we're going to survive this or die from this.

So at the end of the day, the FED has no control of CPI right now because it will be dictated by the price of oil. I Don't think the FED is going to raise rates anymore because it will do nothing for oil prices. He did shut up CNBC when they tried to bring up this oh, Elan loves Putin argument again I Don't know where this thing is coming from. A total strawman argument.

Final question: you met with Zinski Yes, um I think you're a support of Ukraine Yeah, I think you big supporter would have you liked the US government this weekend to have funded Ukraine And by the way, how does that square with Elon Musk Who I know has a very different opinion of Zinski? I think I don't I I Don't know that Musk has a negative opinion of Zilinski. I think I Think his view is that a forever war in Ukraine is not good for America is not good for Ukraine Not good for anyone I Agree with that. I'd like to see a world in which that we can. that war that war ends it's it's a Black Swan risk for the world.

There are thousands of young people and and innocent people dying. I' like to see a world where that ends sooner rather than later. Okay Bill Amman Touching so many different subjects. Thank you! Great answer for Blackman Overall I Give him a solid 7.7 for this interview.

Shout out to everybody who came in and watched this video with me today. Thank you so much! I'll see you in the next video.