We have a lot to talk about in this video. but I Hate fud fear, uncertainty and doubt. We have a lot to talk about about it. Fun.

It's fun. Fear, uncertainty and doubt. And this is not to be confused with misinformation. It's true.

What we're experiencing in today's market in today's economy is: fear, uncertainty and doubt. I mean look when McCarthy got voted out yesterday and now maybe we're gonna have Jim Jordan What's it gonna be like between him and Democrats Is Congress going to get anything done? Are we going to have a budget shutdown? Are we going to have a recession? Are we not going to have a recession? Is it going to be worse than 2008? Is it not gonna be worse than 2008? All of these things and we can keep going because there's a lot more. Is the dollar gonna collapse? Eventually it will, but probably not soon. But all of these things are increasing.

Fear, uncertainty, and doubt in our livelihoods and in my opinion, we need to be very, very blunt about what's going on. We're going to go through some of the data from this morning, including this morning's ADP report, as well as some other information. but what's critically important is that we ask ourselves in the position that we're in right now. Do we take advantage of opportunities and invest? Or do we speculate that things are going to be cheaper in the future? The same thing is, do we speculate that things are going to be more expensive in the future, right? That's speculation.

The question that helps us answer that is, are we in a position where we need the money we need access to right now and then? Where do we want to allocate it and get a five percent yield on money market? But then you have the opportunity cost of maybe missing out on gains in the stock market, which could also be losses. Ultimately, that's what we really want to intro off with is understanding that we are in a period of hyper uncertainty. Yesterday, we get the Jolts numbers. What happens right after we get the jolt numbers of you know, 9.4 million dollar read or whatever.

Well, immediately after that, Goldman Sachs is like, ah, these are probably overstated. These are probably a million job openings overstated because we know what we're reading in the private sector kind of suggests things aren't really that hot. That's the kind of reaction that we're getting in the economy right now. But when it came to actually markets yesterday, treasury yields skyrocketed and stocks fell on this idea that oh my gosh, here's a report that's going to drive the Federal Reserve to be even more aggressive than they should be.

And by being even more aggressive than they should be, we increase the odds of going into a recession. Today we get exactly the opposite kind of report. Which then it's like oh my gosh, what do you believe? Well, the reality is, it's probably all wrong. and I know there's one side of the you know argument here that people say it's all rigged on purpose I think it's all inaccurate, but I think the trends are probably not designed to be rigged.

There are probably reasons and data collection that we could reasonably suggest that. Okay, yeah, even even if it's inaccurate, it could still point us in the right direction in a normal economy. But that's the problem when you're in a place where we are now, which is coming off of nine percent inflation, massive pandemic money printing combined with a war new crane stalemate in Congress and coming off the backs of what is really a pretty wealthy individual base, right? Amer The American household is very strong and that's not everyone. Okay, don't get me wrong, prices for things, everything's up over 20.

We know that and their sympathy to be had, especially for poor folks who are more disproportionately affected by inflation. But when we look at household expenditures as a percentage of disposable income, this is a really important metric because it's just going to put together all of the data for us. It's going to put it all together on one chart to say look of the total leftover money people have after their expenses, how much is going to debts? Which usually we look at debts as a sign of stress to some degree. If you had the cash, you don't need the debt, especially in a high interest rate environment.

So if debt's going up, which we know credit card debt went over a trillion dollars, we know the United States debts over 33 trillion dollars. Well then then we think, oh my gosh, there's stress or everything's just inflated and we have to get used to bigger numbers And that's not to justify inflation. I'm not here to say we should go print more money I'm just saying when we actually look at household balance sheets and this household disposable income as a percentage of personal. uh, you know their Debt Service payments as a percentage of their leftover money, we're not at levels that are higher than what we've seen between 2012 and 2020.

You know, right before the pandemic, if anything, were slightly lower than this imaginary resistance line we could draw over here. and we're way lower than what we've seen in the past. This data goes all the way through the second quarter of 2023. So hey, maybe things changed in Q3 right? The last three months we just went into Q4 which is crazy to think about already that we're already in Q4 It's really weird.

I Started building a Millennium Falcon yesterday with my son Jack from Star Wars and it's it's amazing. We actually we're gonna watch the whole series while we build a Millennium Falcon We're gonna watch all the Star Wars movies in chronological order. So we're starting with the prequels, which means we're going to be getting into the 70s stuff by movie four. That's going to be fun, but anyway, uh, look, let's look at some of the data and let's understand some of the things going on in our economy.

But understand in times of uncertainty, this data isn't incredibly dare I say uh, reliable. That's because when you look at ADP data anytime we've had ADP data over the last like 10 years between 50 000 and 100 000 jobs. The BLS labor report that came out after told us we had job gains of zero, thirty nine thousand, over a hundred thousand, and over two hundred thousand. And it's like the ADP report does not necessarily predict what we're going to expect on uh, the jobs Report coming up.

Keep in mind that the jobs Report coming out on Friday will, uh, release uh with an estimate of about 170 000 jobs created, which is about the historical average. That's right in line with about the average we've seen over the last 10 years, so you're not really seeing that labor softening it there. however we did in the ADP report this morning. So let's talk about this.

but let's also remind you that I appreciate you being here and make sure to subscribe to the channel. Okay, so let's look at the ADP report. So ADP report came in way lower than expected. We got 89 000 jobs.

We were expecting 150 000 jobs. We did have a slight revision up on the last from 177 to 180.. this annual pay being up 5.9 as well sounds like a big number, but it's not a month over month number. It's annual and it's been going straight down.

It's been so intense that there's this quote I Want to read you from their Chief Economist which is a pretty big deal, but only after I mentioned the new Bruce Pro Crash Courses Make sure to go to Meet Kevin.com to learn about these 89 on pre-sale crash courses. I Expect them to be double the price by the time they actually come out, so they'll be well over 150 160 bucks, maybe approaching 200 bucks. Lock these prices and now at 89 bucks in pre-sale How to speak with confidence. Profitable side hustle.

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Not this crap that's just like just take cold showers every morning and you'll be fine. We're gonna give you the real stuff. Go to meet Kevin.com to learn more. so check that out at Mekevin.com Prices will be going up again soon.

So what do we have here? Chief Economist Says we are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month. Steepening decline means companies are like, look, we're fully hired, We're we're fully staffed. There's some people saying in the healthcare industry, we're expecting even more layoffs, especially back office layoffs. Healthcare By the way, is a big sector taking advantage of artificial intelligence? Kaiser Permanente Might be going on strike here.

Obviously, we got the UAW strikes going on. Seems like maybe the writer's Guild is going to work some things out, but we'll see. But anyway, this is so this is a Miss. It's a pretty low report here, and so naturally the Market's pulling back on this.

I mean you've got oil down about three to four percent On this news that you know, we've got a weak Jobs report here basically. and if this is a precursor to what we get Friday You could see a rapid unwinding of treasuries. This is where you could literally get a short squeeze. I Want you to think about that for a moment? because if you're looking for trading strategies, uh, there's there's this potential that you could end up with a short squeeze here on Treasures Because here's how this works.

So, uh, treasury yields yields go way up. Prices go way down. Okay, because we're in this trend of Treasury yields going straight down. You could look at something like TMF.

You're probably TMF is like a leveraged bond fund too, so it's like a complete sh9t show. Like, look at the weak chart of this straight down right. This is the most shortable stock you could have picked over the last quite frankly, three years you could have shorted this in in the pandemic and and you would have just profited, profited, profited, profited right? So anyway, there is a massive short position on treasuries. if we end up getting a weak ADP report that ends up driving yields down right.

So let's change colors here week. ADP Report drives yields down. It's happening right now. we're down seven basis points on the 10-year and on the two year we're down 8.4 Which means they're steepening the yield curve.

Don't worry about what that means. It does signal to some people we might be getting closer to recession, but whatever yields down. Because the ADP report you get a weak jobs report yields are going to go down even more. What's that going to do to bond prices? Bond prices are going to rise.

Well, people are heavy heavy heavy short right now. So you could see an explosion in bond prices and a plummeting in yields which would be good for Real Estate Which would mean you know time to get off the office chair again and go shopping for Real Estate again because maybe those Peak rates are in for a bit. Uh, but anyway. I Really think that's going to be November December It's it's it's going to be a poop show, but we'll see what happens with the data this Friday but we could set up for a massive short squeeze on Treasury So keep that in mind, pay heavy attention to this.

Looking at the ADP report, what do we got? We have 89 000 jobs created. Where are we losing? We're losing some in trade and utilities. We're also losing some in uh, right here. a professional Business Services: These are your white collar jobs.

Manufacturing also getting hit though construction still holding up though. so are Financial activities which I Think that's interesting. We usually see that uh, that has been historically negative here, jumping over to location. It's really the South that's getting hit the hardest.

but it's also no longer those small businesses small businesses actually leading the gains which is a way of potentially saying hey, you know what one of the reasons we could be seeing gains in small businesses is because they tend to again skew service sector. where the large establishments are like look or Microsoft we're a large, you know we're Kaiser Permanente Whatever we can lay off people, we're Vodafone They're going to lay off like 11 000 people because their company is. you know, trying to become efficient again and they're not. They're complaining so much.

I've never seen a company complain as much as Vodafone in an annual report. uh here. I'll show it to you because we do this kind of analysis in the course member live streams. Make sure you're part of those every single day.

but I mean this company's like our comparative performance has worsened over time. We have the lowest uh return on Capital invested uh in in Europe alongside massive investment demands and a higher weighted average cost of capital. Very kind of negative report here. Uh Carnival Cruise Lines On an inflation point of you, you would think would be like a service provider that's actually able to raise prices.

but the answer is no. here's a company that has raised prices five percent since 2019. which means on a real basis you've actually changed prices. Negative about 13 with about 18 inflation.

sorry Carnival no PP For you who does have pricing power though, is Veil Today we learned that uh, their Peak prices are up about 36 percent compared to over 2019. and uh, and this is the first time in a long time I've actually seen in earnings call. Talk about how they're really raising prices. Although there's a chance that ski resorts could appeal to, maybe like a wealthier audience anyway, so that this isn't really a massive CPI impact.

But for the first time in probably about a year and a half, I've actually found a company that's really raising prices and it's the ski resorts or a sector. But again, if that skews wealthier then and and people still have excess savings, especially wealthier and people want to travel more. whatever, this does somewhat make sense, but look, the softening employment report is going to be something that creates some heart palpitations. Uh, for for the idea that? Okay, well, maybe maybe it is time for the FED to say we've We've done enough touching on the real estate market.

Not a surprise. What did we always talk about? institutions being the ones that are likely going to become sellers American Homes for Rent Invitation Homes Either slowed their buying or become net sellers according to the Wall Street Journal here. I Do think this is very interesting residential property values. You could really see how the 30-year fixed rate mortgage has just saved the a single family.

Market Keep in mind if I was going to draw a prediction of what we're going to see. I Think we're going to see another dippy doodla here. mostly. Uh, because of this skyrocketing of interest rates and also what we're actually seeing on the ground on the ground right now, things are hitting the wall in many, many, many, many markets.

Now there are still some like La is still actually one of those where you're still getting multiple offers. There are still markets you're getting multiple offers. These are usually for move-in ready remodeled homes. Uh, and we're starting to see less of them.

So if I was going to draw a prediction of this line, I'm not going to do this. Yeah. I Don't believe that. I I Wouldn't be surprised if maybe we saw something like this.

that that's somewhat of an expectation that I have right now. It's possible that this drop could be a little like it could deviate slightly. You know, maybe maybe we'll end up getting something like that, or we'll have something that's a little, uh, deeper even like that. But I wouldn't be surprised that we just end up with this sort of volatility going forward.

I Don't actually think we have the capacity to really break this long-term appreciation. Uh, you know, well, the trend that we've broken here, right? Because think about it, this is this is your long-term appreciation. Trend Over here it's I Wouldn't be surprised if you're a little bit more sideways for a few years, which is a great opportunity for a company in my opinion like house hack, click, or startup because I think we're going to be able to buy really good wedge deals and be insulated to the downside without needing to speculate that that property values are skyrocketing, will still be able to do very, very well in my opinion. Uh, despite what? I think first for a period of time will be a little bit of a ceiling on property values.

That's why I like investing in House Attack. Now regarding ski resorts, they probably do still have pricing power because remember, look at this excess savings chart and this has been like argued so much like are we actually negative or are we positive? Whatever. What we do know is there is definitely this spread between the wealthier and the poor individuals, right? and this this spread over here on the right that I'm kind of drawing in. I Think that's really what supports the more expensive kind of travel which would be generally your ski snowboard vacations a little bit more expensive here.

So this this reiterates why we're potentially still seeing price increases there whereas everything else is just hitting the wall and now early wealth segment which you can sign up for free by using the newsletter link right below the new verse Pro courses in the link to Househack.com my real estate a startup we might be closing the fundraise for that sooner rather than later. It's a good news thing, but uh yeah, stay tuned. We're making a decision within the next week or two here. Stay tuned.

So okay, here's something to consider when you spend money like on this mug and you go. and let's say spend a hundred dollars on this mug. which we know it's not actually a hundred dollars and I just spilled some coffee, but uh, let's say it's a hundred dollars. How much do you have to make to actually afford that mug? Well, you'd have to make probably somewhere between 130 and 150 dollars because you have to pay taxes to be able to afford this 100 mug.

That sucks. And this is why there's a massive incentive to do two things: Number one, spend money on things that you can deduct from your taxes, and number two: create a side hustle that is not a hobby, but it has an expectation of making income and hopefully makes income. And of course, talk to your tax professional about this. I'm not a CPA so I can't give tax advice but you have a side Hustle You say you know what? I need this for my YouTube videos.

It's necessary and ordinary for me to talk about RuneScape in my videos. Well now all of a sudden I can deduct this from my taxes and now this 100 mug is a hundred dollars. The Mug's actually only about twenty dollars, but it's easier to do math with 100. Okay point of this is to say What expenses do you have in your life? Your cell phone bill that new laptop that Apple watch That could be considered necessary in ordinary expenses for a side Hustle But because you have a job, you don't think about it and therefore you're paying an extra basically 30 or 40 percent.

Think about that. it's a big deal. Thanks so much for watching the bottom line report. Hope to see you soon again.

subscribe. Why not advertise these things that you told us here I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations man, you have done so much People love you People look up to you Kevin path right there financial analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin Always great to get your take.