Well, just like Vladimir Putin just announced that they will accomplish their goals in Ukraine and to be clear, their goal is to demossify. Ukraine Jerome Powell has a goal for the markets and that is to maintain maximum employment and have stable prices and not have a recession which would probably lead to not maximum employment. In other words, lots of layoffs. Okay, we get a real recession.

The layoffs we saw last year will prove to have been a joke. That'll be like the little okay. We picked up the spare coffee mugs around the office and cleaned a little bit. An actual like deep cleaning.

You don't want to go there. It's not great for the economy, but it usually happens late. It's a lagging indicator. it's not great Ford looking data.

Despite this though, and of course, markets are going to be very tentative today given that tomorrow Jobs data comes out, job data coming out tomorrow is expected to show 170 000 job gains. And if the ADP report is anything to give us an indicator as how as to how the Jobs report tomorrow is going to go, it is that we have absolutely no idea. the ADP report like in in this last cycle, has been completely off from where the actual Jobs report has done. And so that does create a risk that tomorrow we actually end up getting a hot Government Jobs report something over 170.

what happens in that case? stocks down, yields up. It's simple, everyone's played the game before, but what happens if that number actually starts aligning with ADP and we get a weak jobs report tomorrow? It could be a sign that maybe just maybe the Fed's finally done and could that be what sets yields off to finally start falling? Well, we've got a little bit of data on the history of what happens with bonds and stocks. Find this quite fascinating. Look at this historically: Bond sell-offs end up with big rallies Let's uh, explain this in English here.

Okay, so uh, if you go all the way back to 1962, that's about 61 years. There have only been 15 times that the bond market has actually sold off for five months in a row. Think about that for a moment. Going back 61 years, you've only seen as bad of a bond market to sell off as we just had 15 times.

and usually in the 30 days thereafter, you end up with bond yields coming down and bond prices coming up again. So you get like a you know Bond rally. Uh, that's on average about 30 basis points here. However, you could make status six months later in other words like yeah, we don't really know what this signals going forward for the next six months.

What we do know though, is that stock performance has a pretty clear outline. Now this might look overwhelming, but all you have to do is look at this is a measure of bond sell-offs during these times. And so we look at how severe the bond sell-offs add three to six months out. Stock market's a little mixed during these periods of bond sell-offs but if you really want to know what happens a year out, all you have to do is look at the average at the bottom.

So look at this average at the bottom right here and you get a 10.1 percent typical average return for the stock market when you average together all of these previous Cycles where bonds have sold off. So in other words, if you're that long-term stock investor, there is historical data to suggest after these sort of crazy. Bond Cycles You do end up getting some relief in the stock market as well. At the same time, we're also seeing Commodities relief.

And you look at uh, oil right now. Oil? uh, down right off of its 95. Peak Another 1.36 Today, we're down now at 84.64 on Brent 83 on WTI Pretty remarkable drop. It's almost as remarkable as the drop that Rivian's having, although I I will say covered.

Rivian's finances yesterday. Went through some of their details. Their cash burn is less than it used to be. They're still spending about 136 dollars per 100 of Revenue they get in gross profit which is gross loss.

so they're still losing money. and then you take off Opex Still burning money. So it's no surprise that they want to raise 1.5 billion dollars. I Mean this is a duh, you have to.

That's that's why you want to be public, right? It's so you can. You can raise money from your shareholders and you have liquidity for your employees or for, uh, for executives at a company to be able to sell shares and and share in the growth of the company with others. But when you have a company like Rivien, you're really asking shareholders to share in the startup costs of the company and that's what's happening. kind of much like Vin fast.

except I I Kind of think that VIN Fast is at like a scary, like scammy kind of level and what? I've been bagging on this company since it was memeing and and talking and complaining about how this company is a rip-off but let me just tell you, they just released earnings and they're even worse than I Thought: this company literally has 131 million dollars of cash. They burn a billion dollars of cash in a quarter. Which means they really only have about two weeks of cash left. And I know people like, oh, but they've got 897 million dollars of inventories bro their free cash flow.

Negative, they're burning more cash than they are making. This company has two weeks of cash left. This is absolute trash. Uh, you know.

And that is, of course they've got three choices. Their related parties could sort of delay some of the due dates on their current liabilities. Maybe are there other current liabilities? Could give them some flexibility? Maybe they could raise money like debt or Equity like uh, Rivian is doing. but you know, with only like two percent of the stock outstanding? Uh, and a lot of really weird related party interests, this company is very, very questionable.

So I've got my concerns about Vinfest substantially more than Rivian I Would go all in on Rivian way before I would ever put a dollar in Vin fast. And let's just say I own no Rivian stock. So look, it's really obvious that we're going through uncertain times. But the good news is in this uncertainty, you can invest in House Hack.

We've probably got about two weeks left of the fundraise, and then we're likely closing the doors TBD on exactly the date we'll announce that. But go to Houset.com to learn more because we're raising at a one-to-one valuation, which is exceptionally rare for star startups. That means you're basically investing at cash value minus obviously some of the fees that it costs us to actually fundraise. But this is a great opportunity in my opinion.

You have to evaluate those risks yourself. Check out the offering circular at Househack.com Learn about the company. It's a great opportunity in my opinion. You should evaluate that for yourself.

and also go to meet Kevin.com to check out those New verse Pro Crash courses. We just added some more 89 bucks. We expect those prices to double when the courses are actually live, so get in on the pre-sale while we're making the content. So what do we have to talk about Now it is, of course Black Monday How nobody wants to remember 1987 But then there's 1916 and blah blah blah blah blah.

Basically, here's an article in Bloomberg that's been circulating a lot. A lot of people have been asking for my opinion on this and really what the article does is say says okay, look let's put in a blue line what 10-year treasury yields did going all the way to 1987. And what you can see is you had this run up to 1987 and all of a sudden you had a Black Monday market crash and those treasure yields Came Crashing Down But so did the stock market and our path looks eerily similar to what happened back then. In fact, it's not just our path on the actual yield curve or or 10-year treasury yield chart.

It's also right here. The black line is the NASDAQ today. Okay, the blue line is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Back then and you could see that crash was pretty dang painful and it does make you wonder uh uh oh, Is it possible that we could be in for some real painly dude law now? I Do think it's worth noting that this chart is possibly a little deceiving because it ignores all of the pain that happened last year. And you know me, I'm a big fan of perspective.

Okay, yesterday I was building Legos with Jack and you know the manual kind of had like the pieces at an angle like this and it made it look like the piece behind it was totally flush but it wasn't it was sticking out and he's like oh Dad I couldn't really tell because of the the angle on the paper. Uh, and I'm like, well, if you hold the Lego kind of like this, doesn't it look the same right And this is perspective and he's like, isn't that an optical illusion I Go. No, it's perspective and you could learn perspective in the new verse Pro crash courses and he's like, okay, Dad I know I know the price is going to be double when they actually come out. Okay, so what's the perspective? The perspective right here here Is that this Bloomberg article? This opinion piece right here is actually only showing you this year.

Okay, and they talk about how spooky this year is. But wait a minute. What happened in the year prior to this chart? Well, let's find out in the year prior to this chart. So where is this? This is 1987.

here's January of 1987. what they're showing you on that Bloomberg chart is literally from where the line is right now through this crash through. Basically you know, uh, the the right about here which is about the end of the year. they're showing you all of 1987.

But what's worth noting is the stock market literally ran straight up for three years leading up to that crash. I Mean, look at that July of 1984. to September August 1987. three years of straight up stock market rally, and now you're trying to suggest that our NASDAQ today is going to crash because just this part relates.

Wait a second. Wait a second. What did our NASDAQ do last year? Well, let's find out. we go to QQQ go to the week chart.

Oh crap. Our NASDAQ had a big crash last year. And how convenient. You totally left the whole crash of 2022 out of your chart because you decided you know what.

It's going to be a lot easier for me to make a comparison to the Black Monday crash, the big Doom and Gloom crash. If I just happened to cut out the fact that the stock market basically went straight up for three years prior to the Black Monday crash, whereas we literally just came out of a massive correction in 2022, the low of 2022 literally reset our stock values back to year years. So these comparisons to Black Monday of 1987 are just clickbait nonsense. But to give the article credit, they go a little bit deeper.

And you know me: I Like to go deep. Okay, especially if I could find really strong big baby pricing power at companies. It's got to be big. We gotta go deep.

Okay, we want pricing power. That's what we're looking for at companies. It's hard in an environment when rates are this huge. It's very hard.

Okay, there's a lot of volatility. There's a lot of fear. There's a lot of Doubt. But look at this.

The article on Black Monday literally goes on to talk about. Well, there was a time that the 10-year treasury yield did Skyrocket and the stock market didn't crash. And that was during the Taper Tantrum of 2013.. Oh, how interesting.

We basically had another seven to eight to nine years of basically more like eight years straight stock market gains from 2013 on. So are we really going to get yields Drive Our decision in to invest or not in the stock market when it's unclear that a black Monday is ahead of us? a B The Taper Tantrum of 2013 gives us the like, well, it could be either or, but even better when we actually look at stock performance during periods of massively skyrocketing. Uh, Bond yields. Yes, there's volatility, but when you go 12 months out, what do you get? Well, 12 months out, you get an average 10 percent return over history in the stock market 12 months out.

So in other words, I'm a big fan of suggesting. look, you find your opportunities. As usual, there's always going to be fud who's going to be Speaker of the house. This is going to be Donnelly T I Don't think so.

Look, if Donald T becomes the Speaker of the house, he will lose the election. That does not mean being bullish or bearish on. Donald Trump I'm just saying like you don't go from Speaker to President. It is the most thankless job that exists.

Like you are stuck between literally a rock and a hard place. There's no way it would be stupid Trump doesn't need that anyway. he just needs to keep showing up at Court going. This is a weapons.

All the advertising he's done for him. Like him or not. Ah, now we gotta talk about the Daily Wealth newsletter. This is a really good one Today we got to talk about it right after I mentioned this video is brought to you by Streamyard.

Go to Metcaven.com Stream Yard and understand the beautiful, delicious streaming software that you could get in a browser anywhere you are and actually have high quality streaming. Be able to put banners up on screen. Uh, put banners around the screen Internet. But throw up.

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Not just creators, but people who are trying to get started trying to record video with an easy to use recording software. You could use it offline too. It's not just for streaming, so go to Metcaven.com Stream Yard to learn more. So Daily Wealth Today we're going to talk about Chaos Theory Um, hmm right.

So Chaos Theory is a first of all, a video game. It's Splinter Cell Chaos Theory is a phenomenal game. I Love that game. But there's also another form of chaos theory.

And I learned this. uh, in law, Chaos Theory in law is when an attorney who's fighting another attorney every day Peppers the opposing council with filings and requests and distractions and comments and complaints, you literally want the other person to look at her phone go. Oh, how am I going to sort all this? Oh my. God You could actually apply Chaos Theory to your life because the person who applies chaos theory is generally the person who's in control.

It's actually to some degree, some of the stuff that Donald Trump does. When everything's in chaos, the person causing the chaos is the one in control. They hold all the power. So that's the legal example.

How do you apply this to your life? You apply this to your life by creating Chaos Theory at every different part of your life. Whether it's the organization in your desk, whether it's the organization in your bedroom, whether it's the organization in, uh, the way you do your emails or your phone, you just delete everything and restart Every single time you cause chaos, you take everything, you throw it into the pile, and you rebuild it. Whether it's a fresh wipe on your phone, on your computer, your desk, or your closet. Whatever it is every time you rebuild the next, even though that takes act for effort the next time you go to use the items that you just chaos theoried or the processes that you just chaos theory, it will almost always, hands down, virtually guaranteed be better, more efficient, simpler to use, more organized.

you'll save time. so the investment you make by Chaos Theory in different parts of your life actually makes you a much more efficient person. Don't going forward. Now If you want more tips like that, make sure to sign up for the Daily Wealth email.

It's totally free. It's linked down below a lot of links down below Househack Meet Kevin.com Stream Yard The Wealth Email Check out the links down below. appreciate you watching this and we'll see in the next one. Goodbye these things that you told us here I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes.

Congratulations man, you have done so much People love you People look up to you Kevin Financial analyst and YouTuber Meet Kevin Always great to get your take.