In this video I give you my CCIV Post Merger Stock Price Prediction and also explain the various possibilities of what actually happens to your CCIV Shares After the Merger, do you get more? less? will they be worth more? or not?
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An EBITDA valuation/DCF valuation cant really be performed as Lucid Motors is currently a private company, meaning they don't publish their financial statements.
Therefore, the best way to get an idea of a Post Merger CCIV Stock Price is to look at its competitors and compare. I compare Lucid to Tesla, Nio and Nikola Motors in this video and determine that CCIV could have a market cap of between $34bn and $70bn post merger. Meaning a 4x - 8x from its current position of $8bn market cap.
Tesla currently sell a number of different vehicles and have a very influential CEO, so comparing Lucid to Tesla is almost impossible. Nio also currently sell a number of vehicles, but if we look back to 2019 pre ramp up of production, Nio had a market cap of $10bn but only 7,000 followers on Twitter. CCIV already has over 80,000 followers and therefore could have a much higher market cap than $10bn.
Nikola motors don't have any vehicles for sale, similar to lucid, but achieved a market cap of around $34bn with only 40,000 followers, therefore, as lucid has double the followers, it also potentially has double the number of investors ready to bid the stock up even higher, to potentially double the market cap of Nikola.
But what happens to the shares? during a reverse merger, the original CCIV shareholders will be diluted by PIPE shareholders and original Lucid Motors investors (Peter Rawlinson, his team and the Saudi PIF). However, the market cap is likely to increase significantly and the stock is not likely to face the same dilution as the CCXX stock.
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