Lets discuss the upcoming real estate collapse, the setbacks of mortgage forbearance, and how this impacts values - enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan
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We can start by looking at Redfin, who’s one of the leading real estate brokerages who analyzes home buying and selling data. They found that - in April - we saw a 50% DECLINE of inventory on the market compared to the previous year…meaning, 50% of sellers are holding off from listing their home and choosing NOT to sell.
HOWEVER…NOW, in May…we’re finding only a 24% drop in listings from the prior year, which indicates that sellers are SLOWLY beginning to re-enter the market and list their homes for sale, although there’s still far less inventory on the market than usual.
NEXT - as far as LISTING PRICES are concerned - meaning, the price a seller LISTS a property at…Redfin found that listing prices are UP 5.4% from the previous year, following a 1.7% drop in April that brought the average listing price down to $302,000.
BUT EVEN MORE SURPRISING was the surge in HOME BUYING DEMAND, which has just surpassed PRE CRISIS levels. Now, for anyone unaware…Redfin classifies home buying demand as anyone who reaches out to tour a property, make an offer, or inquire about buying a home…and this shows that there are still people out there, wanting to buy, and waiting for the right opportunity to do so.
And…the shock of home buying doesn’t end there…they found that homes are selling at the EXACT SAME SPEED as they were back in 2019…meaning, as of May 8th…45% of listings are under contract within 2 weeks, with mortgage applications up 11% from a week earlier.
BUT…with all of that, I’m sure what we ALL want to know about is PRICE…are real estate PRICES going UP, or DOWN? And data from the National Association of Realtors found that home PRICES actually INCREASED in 96% of all Metros during the first quarter.
CoreLogic, one of the largest data analytics companies, found that - even though prices have risen 4.5% year over year…they expect that, over the next year, we’ll only see an increase of half a percent from where we are now.
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
Zillow also published their own predictions, which estimated that real estate values would drop 2.7% by October of this year.
https://www.zillow.com/research/prices-sales-forecast-coronavirus-26975/
HOWEVER…I also want to be a total realist and say this: The reason home prices have yet to be affected, is because real estate prices typically lag behind everything else. In addition to that, interest rates are INCREDIBLY low…so much so, that it’s essentially FREE MONEY for anyone who gets an interest rate below 3.5%.
The OTHER reality, is that anyone who doesn’t NEED to sell a home, isn’t selling a home. There are plenty of people who were planning to move, but just decide, instead, to hold off…that means less inventory on the market, and with less inventory - combined with low interest rates - housing prices should remain relatively stable.
So, even though as of RIGHT NOW - housing has barely been impacted - there are a lot of “What ifs” that could mean the difference of prices continuing to hold steady, OR the market going down.
For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at GrahamStephanBusiness @gmail.com
*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Get 2 FREE STOCKS ON WEBULL when you deposit $100 (Valued up to $1400): https://act.webull.com/k/Vowbik9Tm5he/main
JOIN THE WEEKLY MENTORSHIP - https://the-real-estate-agent-academy.teachable.com/p/graham-stephan-mentorship-program/
The YouTube Creator Academy:
Learn EXACTLY how to get your first 1000 subscribers on YouTube, rank videos on the front page of searches, grow your following, and turn that into another income source: https://bit.ly/2STxofv $100 OFF WITH CODE 100OFF
My ENTIRE Camera and Recording Equipment:
https://www.amazon.com/shop/grahamstephan?listId=2TNWZ7RP1P1EB
We can start by looking at Redfin, who’s one of the leading real estate brokerages who analyzes home buying and selling data. They found that - in April - we saw a 50% DECLINE of inventory on the market compared to the previous year…meaning, 50% of sellers are holding off from listing their home and choosing NOT to sell.
HOWEVER…NOW, in May…we’re finding only a 24% drop in listings from the prior year, which indicates that sellers are SLOWLY beginning to re-enter the market and list their homes for sale, although there’s still far less inventory on the market than usual.
NEXT - as far as LISTING PRICES are concerned - meaning, the price a seller LISTS a property at…Redfin found that listing prices are UP 5.4% from the previous year, following a 1.7% drop in April that brought the average listing price down to $302,000.
BUT EVEN MORE SURPRISING was the surge in HOME BUYING DEMAND, which has just surpassed PRE CRISIS levels. Now, for anyone unaware…Redfin classifies home buying demand as anyone who reaches out to tour a property, make an offer, or inquire about buying a home…and this shows that there are still people out there, wanting to buy, and waiting for the right opportunity to do so.
And…the shock of home buying doesn’t end there…they found that homes are selling at the EXACT SAME SPEED as they were back in 2019…meaning, as of May 8th…45% of listings are under contract within 2 weeks, with mortgage applications up 11% from a week earlier.
BUT…with all of that, I’m sure what we ALL want to know about is PRICE…are real estate PRICES going UP, or DOWN? And data from the National Association of Realtors found that home PRICES actually INCREASED in 96% of all Metros during the first quarter.
CoreLogic, one of the largest data analytics companies, found that - even though prices have risen 4.5% year over year…they expect that, over the next year, we’ll only see an increase of half a percent from where we are now.
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
Zillow also published their own predictions, which estimated that real estate values would drop 2.7% by October of this year.
https://www.zillow.com/research/prices-sales-forecast-coronavirus-26975/
HOWEVER…I also want to be a total realist and say this: The reason home prices have yet to be affected, is because real estate prices typically lag behind everything else. In addition to that, interest rates are INCREDIBLY low…so much so, that it’s essentially FREE MONEY for anyone who gets an interest rate below 3.5%.
The OTHER reality, is that anyone who doesn’t NEED to sell a home, isn’t selling a home. There are plenty of people who were planning to move, but just decide, instead, to hold off…that means less inventory on the market, and with less inventory - combined with low interest rates - housing prices should remain relatively stable.
So, even though as of RIGHT NOW - housing has barely been impacted - there are a lot of “What ifs” that could mean the difference of prices continuing to hold steady, OR the market going down.
For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at GrahamStephanBusiness @gmail.com
*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Expeditetools,com saved me from bad credit .They got a transfer of $45,000 directly to my bank account .
👊👊
I think i just felt in love
My 72yo mother just finished paying off her house after 42 years. So no more mortgage for her to pay😁👍
Graham could you create a video on how to invest in our career by educating ourselves (besides going to college) like the books you recommend or the habits one should try to encorpirate in their daily lives etc.
Thanks
I can answer this question with no real estate background only using common sense. Home values will not go down, at least not significantly because the people selling them want the most out of the sale as possible so they will not accept offers lower than the listed value, no matter how ridiculously overpriced they've listed it. I know this because I am looking for my first condo and I am seeing deluded sellers listing as small as 400 sqft properties for over $300k when some 500 Sqft properties are listed for $290k within the same area. People want money and are unlikely to do anything that would lead to them getting less, the same reason business owners wanted to reopen early, why people want to be able to send their kids back to school so they can go back to work, people want to make as much money as possible.
Let me save you more time. Real estate will collapse. Can't be avoided. Graham, you're in denial.
Do a quick google search for ECOM BAZZOID someone posted your courses Graham
Do a quick google search for ECOM BAZZOID someone posted your courses Graham
What a waste of time, but hey, you got over 500K views so, money?
Just look at the pre-forclosed homes in your area to forecast housing market.
Do you have any tenants that are having trouble paying rent due to COVID? If so, how are you dealing with it?
Hey Graham, do you think REITs like MITT and IVR have a chance of bouncing back to their pre-covid levels after this mess? or do you think they are permanently damaged or even file for bankruptcy?
Click bait
Rent to pull a little profit then sell. If it's a good profit build a new one
Mortgage payment assistance
You always make money buying an Ugly House 🤮and making it a Pretty House 🏡
I will not share this video for the simple reason (too many ads).
So basically you've got no interesting information, thanks and bye.
Lots of fast talking by Graham. You should have been a car salesman!
How much would you pay right now for a rental property that has a renter not paying, no recourse to get them to pay for the next year, and when you do have recourse, there will be a log jam in the legal system and a huge politically active squatter community? My bid starts at 20 cents on the pre-pandemic dollar.
Why would anyone take a new renter that has no payment obligation, that destroys the sale value of their property?
If there are no rentals without half-year+ prepayment clauses, and no rented properties for sale, the supply goes down by what 20%? 30%? And the demand does what? With no reasonable rentals I say it goes up, limited only by means which is up due to record low rates. Cities stagnate until lifestyle comes back. Suburbs with desirable lifestyle pop.
Prices up, volume down.
Informative content and very well organized presentation! Thanks
The banks should not demand the not payed months in one lump sum. Add em to the back of the mortgage that way the real-estate does not bottom out in price.
Housing prices only go down if the the amount of buyers go down, since the whole reason why housing prices are so high people looking to buy low and sell high or rent, I'm guessing It may go down slightly in big cities but it will stay high. Rural and less popular property will be hit hardest. Since anyone with money is waiting for it to go down to buy since property is always a valuable asset that you can buy and businesses and people are always looking for property in cities. The housing market will never go down as long as people can still profit from it and there are people who have the money and desire to invest into it.
You've been clickbaited! Muahah
I haven't paid the property taxes on my house since I retired. My electricity is about to be shut for nonpayment
Real estate WILL CRASH. Graham is too heavily invested in the market to ever admit it. He is naturally biased to think real estate wont be effected as much in this recession
Are you hiring for your channel?
I totally do not get why if you owe $100,000 on a house and now it's worth of 90 why the hell would you let it go back? You need a freaking place to live. My house I bought for 257 went down at 213 at the low point I never once thought about mailing my keys in. I held onto it cuz I needed a place to live and I liked the house I just kept making my payment eventually the house price went back up we sold it for a profit because we wanted to move not because we wanted to get rid of a house that we owed money on and it was worth less than what we owed that's just stupid
Click bait and waste of time
Yea…totally agree with Yoha. That thumbnail was downright deceitful. No longer interested.
Graham just rambles, but doesn't have any clear predilections
Kill the Cat
EXPERT! Commercial Real Estate ? What is his fotcast for that ? Mine is DOWN, a lot. AND it will effect other areas of Real property. Wait 9 months before buying. In a declining market; time = a lower price.
I will be buying a residential property. Not now ! A Trump downturn is underway. ONE unemployed person also includes their children and other family members. Home Depot reported INCREASED sales, BUT fewer customers ( avg sale amount was UP). For a number of reasons; Americans are spending less and less. The only good news is people are saving more.
30 to 40 % of lost jobs are permanently lost.
Graham says home prices will go up in next 12 months. I expect the opposite.