What's up everyone? All right? So here we are: Monday morning April First, it's a brand new month. I'm excited about that and I'm gonna finish today up $1,500 So green is good today. I Traded two stocks, both beginning with a P P you LM and PHAs made about 2100 on Pu LM and lost about 600 on PHAs. both of them pretty volatile.

Pu LM had a lot more volume and I could have kept training it and being a little more aggressive, but I started to feel like I was pushing my luck and over trading a little bit and I was like you know what first day of the month, let's just book Green Day come back at it tomorrow and so that's what I'm doing. So really happy to start the month with a green trade. Put up all my broker statements for the month of March finish the month down right around $21,000 which is disappointing. It's the first red month in over a year 2018 I Had one red month 2017 I had to read months so here in 2019 I already have one red month, but you know at the same time I'm still up over a hundred and ten thousand dollars on the year and you know these are just part of the things that come with trading.

It's you know, sometimes a couple steps forward, a couple steps back, got a readjust slow down and you know I'm just trying to get my groove back. So you know here we have another green day finish last week. You know, back up in the green and green here. Monday Morning feels good so you know.

Goal: Fifteen hundred Two thousand dollars a day. I Can live with that. Alright, so enjoy the recap. As usual, any questions any comments leave below I'll come back through and answer in this afternoon and I'll see you guys tomorrow morning.

9:15 for pre market analysis. All right everyone. So we're gonna do our midday market recap. I'm gonna finish the morning here up one thousand, five hundred, five dollars, and forty three cents, which is pretty good.

The bulk of those profits came on PU L M which is currently up a hundred and eight percent. Pretty impressive and sort of unexpected. It's on 27 million shares of volume I Could have been a little more aggressive on it and we'll go back and look at those two the trades I took, but um, you know I really this month starch is starting. green is important to me not swinging for the fences, just taking a couple of low risk trades.

and I definitely did that on. PU LM PHAs I Took a couple trades on this one as well. You can see this is a big move from 10 all the way up to just under 13 bucks and but I ended up losing six hundred eighty six dollars on it. The spreads were pretty big, even right now.

it's eleven forty by eleven sixty. so twenty cent spread and I wasn't able to really sell him. He asked and ended up hitting the bed and taking losses on on the trades that I took so you know that's okay, it was. It was worth a try I just was in a little too high on both stabs and then you know, whatever.

it didn't make a lot or do super well on it. but looking at Pol Em, you know this one. We've traded it before. It's not the first time we've traded it.

It does have a history of being a former runner, which is always good. It was on the Gap scanner this morning, so we'll pull back the Gap scanner here. We'll look at this for 9:25 a.m. and what you'll see is that PU LM was our third leading gapper our first gap or was eighty excess I know John Came in this morning, traded 80 excess, made 1,500 bucks, and was gone by like 9:45 trading for 15 minutes I missed a Vxs.

And here's the thing that I talked about last week. after having several days of buying Gap and Go stocks, you know, basically right at this kind of position, having them just get slammed back down and taking big losses I was like I'm not jumping into this right out of the gates I'm just gonna watch it and right out of the gates it pops up to 950 and I'm like nope, not not touching it. It drops to 891, it drops 60 cents and I was like that's right, that's why I left it alone and then it rips back up to 950 and I was like now I'm not getting faked out and then squeezes up to ten and I was like wow I couldn't get in here at 993 but that's risky. this thing was just a date, you know, 93 so I passed on it and it squeezed up to 1024 and at this point I was like wow I can't I really can't chase it and you know.

So I missed this little opportunity here, but don't regret not trading it because I followed the rules that I had set for myself for for this week and for right now which was to not aggressively trade a gapper right out of the gates. so eighty excess I Know you know some of you guys did well on it buying this sort of micro red to green pullback. but I missed it and then you know it is what it is so no trades on that. but pul Em was the second one on the watchlist and this one ended up giving us a couple of opportunities here.

A little bit sluggish to start the day and it had a pre market high of a dollar 77 and the place that I ended up jumping in it was right here on this nice little one minute pullback. You see how it has that hi there of 69 the pullback and then from 65 I jumped in it and it pops up to a high of 77. Well it's only 12 cents of profit you know I mean if I got into the bottom to the top and I didn't get the full you know bottom to the top of the move, we'll go back up here. My orders: I Got in at 65, 66 and 67 and sold at 72, 71, 71.

So on that first trade you know really and this is a lower price stock which is why I felt comfortable taking nine thousand shares this one you know it was like couple hundred bucks. It pulls back a little bit here. micro pullback high of 77 I end up jumping back in for the of 77 in at 76 77, selling at 83 84. we hit a high there of 86 and then it pops up to 88.

it pulls back again. right here. Another little scalp opportunity up to the high of 90 you know, so just kind of actively trading it back in at 79, adding in 85. That was an accident I had typed 700 shares and then had to change it back to 3,000 whatever.

So a little scalp there I guess stopped out, lost a little bit on that one and then we had PHAs So I'll just to keep that chart the way it is I'll pull PHS up on a different window here. All right. So PHAs here it was on their scanner as a circuit breaker hall. Okay, so it got halted.

it resumed. it dips down for a second and I jumped in anticipating that it would break over $12 and continue going higher. It did not and I stopped out right here for about $100 loss and I was like all right. Well you know, keeping losses tight.

that's the thing to do. Keep it on watch. It ended up breaking right here. I got back in on this pull back, ended up making like 200 bucks.

it goes higher I got back in for the break of 13 I think it was like right here and that one didn't work and I lost on that one. So overall this one was just kind of choppy. It was difficult to trade, not a lot of volume so you know whatever down 600 plus $686 on that one, but manage risk fairly well, which I'm happy with. I didn't go super big on position sizes.

3000 shares was my biggest size. So then back to Pol: M it's grinding higher. A little bit of consolidation here on the one-minute you can see it kind of going sideways. It finally pops over this 190 level and hits a high of 205 as it broke that level.

I jumped right in at 97 anticipating the break of two and sold it to a three. but you can see this is a stock where you know trading nine thousand shares. I'm really only getting like you know, five cents here. four cents there.

small wins, it hits 210, goes sideways I get back in right here for the next break of 210 on that. when I got in at that was a good trade. let's see where was that right here and back in it at 205, 205, 206 and sold for about 10 cents of profit. Scalping that break right there and that if we go on to the five-minute sharp was right here.

No sorry sir sir, that was right, it was. It was right here and then it goes up to 23. I did one final trade right up here around 24. It didn't work and so then I was like I don't know maybe I should just leave this one alone I'm up 1,500 bucks and then he didn't take this trade.

You know that's just a look in the draw. that nice final break there over 25. squeeze right up to 35 40 and then right up here to a high of $3 so you know it is just. it's funny because it felt in this whole area here that it was such a struggle and it felt a bit extended.

You know at this point it was a bit extended and we had a couple false breakouts here. you know? and I was just like man, this thing has been tough. You've got the doubt the 233 daily resistance level that were coming up to and so I just was like I don't know I'm just gonna leave it alone. seems like volume is declining on it anyways, getting back down to low volume and then you know off it goes and so again I'm not gonna regret that really too much.

Today's a Green Day I'm happy with the Green Day You know, especially after last month. They just want to start this month with a couple of green trades. so let's see. so I'll leave that there.

So there's my P&L here today. 1500 bucks. You know, a little bit below my two thousand dollar daily goal, but it's know nothing to get bent out of shape about. There's no reason to force it, you know.

And and I'd certainly wasn't going to trip chase this up. At $3 that just would have been you. really risky. and of course this may end up giving more opportunities in going higher, but you know the way I prioritize my time.

It makes the most sense for me to trade the first two hours of the day and the rest of the day has been working with students working on our classes and doing the things for those you guys who at the very beginning of your journey. Now you know what? I make more money trading if I focus the rest of the day on you know, actively trading stocks like this. Sure, of course I would, but you know realistically, you have to make that decision at some point about prioritizing whether it's you know to spend more time with your family or it's to focus on, you know, a second business that you have, whatever the case may be. So you know I trade the first two hours and I'll try to get as much as I can during those those windows of time.

So I did go ahead and upload my broker statements for 24 March 2019. So I'll pull these up here and and we'll just go over those real quick. You know again, March was not a good month for me. In fact, it was the worst month in over a year of trading.

Last red month was February 2018. So you know, having my first red month in over a year 2017 I had to read months, you know? So it's not uncommon for me to have red months 2016 I didn't have any red months 2015 I had red months. So we'll go back down here to the very bottom. So 2019 earnings or broker statements and you'll be able to see here the statements that are posted.

So at the end of the month I sat 946 thousand dollars of total profit on the $583 challenge, which was, you know, obviously really good, but a little bit of a setback and up a hundred and eleven thousand dollars for 2019. So we'll go down here to February February and down $21,000 Interestingly, my accuracy was still good. It was 69 percent. accuracy wasn't the problem.

the problem was basically I only had small winners and I had a couple really big losers. So I had a negative profit loss ratio statement here for my main account and statement there for the IRA account. or actually I think those are reversed I got a goes yeah those are reversed I gotta go switch them. But anyways I'll do that later.

So the reports view here if we look just at the month of March 3, 31 2019 filter just to kind of, you know, zoom in on this a little bit and you know well, gross profit but net profit after Commission's Commission's being on the high side mostly because I was trading I traded a lot of volume I Think one of the things that you know sometimes happens when you start to dig yourself a hole is to try to dig yourself out. You start expending more and more energy which is in the form of trading more and more actively taking more and more trades. I took a total of 226 trades in the month which is definitely more than average. But like I said accuracy 69% So this accuracy, you know we go back to 2016 and just look at three years of time.

you know the accuracy is actually was a little above average if anything. So you know going back here to 2019, but over the long haul my average winners are about a thousand when my average losers are about a thousand. So the big difference in this March was that my average winners were about 50 percent smaller and my average losers were about 50 percent bigger. And that is obviously a very difficult type of metric to come out ahead with.

so you know. Finished the month down Obviously the biggest loss in nineteen thousand dollar loss that was, you know, Brutal. The largest gain only fifty eight hundred dollars. so you know that just wasn't enough.

Lots of small small winners, but nothing really big. Biggest when you know average winner is only five hundred sixty dollars, average loser sixteen hundred. So this is, you know, no day. I mean I'm not going to say that the a good month, it wasn't a good month.

it was a month where you know I Obviously finished read and I just kept getting hit with big losses. Now part of the I would say the biggest drawback or the biggest flaw to my strategy. And of course saying flaw is you know, relative to the fact that this is a strategy that does produce a lot of profit, it's over a million dollars right there. but you know the biggest.

The biggest flaw is that I do occasionally have big losses and that my profit loss ratio generally it for me is only about one to one. That's the biggest flaw and this is a reflection I would save my personality I'm afraid of risk and that makes being a day trader pretty tough because we take a risk every day. But I really am afraid of risk I hate losing money and so what I end up doing is. you know when I get into a trade, you know as soon as I'm up a little bit I sell half and then if it ends up continuing higher, you know my profits are gonna be smaller and then I sell another half and then I sell another half and so meanwhile, you know let's say the stock is going up like this: My profits are not going up like that, My profits are only going up like this because I sell half so early and I sell another half and another half.

On the flip side, you know if I get into something that drops down right away and you know I'm not usually I'm not often able to sell the whole thing quick enough and so I end up having you know a bigger loss and so in total, my average winners and average losers are about 50/50 They're about the same. they're even, so you know. and this is in contrast to someone like Mike who has a terrific profit loss ratio. I Mean it's really impressive that he's got such a strong profit loss ratio I think it's closer to 3 to 1, his average winners being 3 times larger than his average losers you know.

And then of course, at the end of the year how much I make versus how much Mike makes you know is sort of a factor of how many shares you're able to buy and how frequently you Trey and I trade much more frequently than Mike. And that's partly because my quality standard is is lower. Not looking for kind of these like really likes like maybe homerun type of moves but taking lots of these smaller traits and so you know at the end of the day it's it's you know, to each your own. but for me, I've had so many trades where if I didn't take the profit right here and then it comes right back down.

You know I end up actually being breakeven on a trade or even worse, I end up being red on a trade that I actually had profit on. So my fear of you know, losing profit is not just totally imaginary. it's not an imaginary fear. It's a very real fear based on the fact that especially with small cap stocks, that happens a lot.

We see so much volatility where we'll see these types of stocks. Let's see, let me pull my chart again and you know we'll see these types of stocks. You know, like this, or you know good. look at 80 XS 80 XS This is one where if you didn't take your profit right here when it was above $10 well it's back at $7 right now.

You know these types of stocks they can just they can reverse and they can hurt and hit you so hard. You know you see that happen a couple times and you're like nope. As soon as it's up here at ten bucks, I'm taking profit. You know well what happens when the stock ends up going you know to 12 and then 13 and 14.

which sometimes they do. You know you're the one who's like man. I Sold this whole thing at $10 What's wrong with me? So frustrating. But you follow you know the rules and based on the knowledge that a good percentage of the time these will just go ahead and retrace the whole move.

If you don't take the profit, you know you've got nothing. and so I've trained myself to sell half really quickly and the result of that is on a good month having a profit loss ratio that is closer to one to one. Now you know in at the beginning of my small account challenge January First you know to February 1st 2017 I was holding the winners a little bit longer and I was had I had really tight stops. Actually let's see no actually there see I ended up having that one loss and that one loss dragged it all down.

Let's go down to 128. So before that loss I guess it was better. Yeah so I had one loss that you know really adversely affected the profit loss ratio. but you know.

I Let's see, let's look at her. A good month. Twenty seventeen I think November of 2017 was a really good month for me. Solutions, look at November for instance: yeah, November I made $80,000 $80,000 were the same, right? The profit loss ratio or the percentage of success was basically the same.

So the only thing different really on this month was that you know verses like this month here one to one profit loss ratio. The profit loss ratio was better and obviously I had a couple of trades in there that ended up you know, being big winners. Let's look at December of 2017 December I Also made right around $80,000 68 percent accuracy. You know this is a month where the profit loss ratio was a little bit better.

You know the losers were a little smaller and the winners were a little bigger. And in fact, on this month the losers were half of what they were on average versus the month before only 800 versus 1500. But the winners were a little bit smaller as well. So you know this is kind of what we talked about with the profit trifecta.

Being a successful trader is all about battling your you know, we've got the Profit trifecta here. and you've got your percentage of success. You've got your your well, you've got your consistency. Which is that you know how many weeks are you green so you know your goal is to be green four weeks out of the month, and then you've got your profit, your percentage of success.

You know your goal is 70% so you're doing that, and then you've got your profit loss ratio. You know over on this side and the goal is to be at least at one-to-one And if you can be a 2 to 1 or 1.5 to 1, you know that that's always better. but that's what you struggle with Then these three metrics. The Profit trifecta.

These are what create the the metrics of either a profitable trader or a losing trader. And every single one of you have your metrics from last month. Whether or not you're aware of them, you know is you know I'm not sure, but you all have metrics for last month of how you traded your accuracy, percentage of success, profit loss ratio, and those numbers can tell you a lot about what's working, what's not working with your strategy. So you know we go back in here to the month of March and if I was looking at a student's performance, you know this was not my own, but a student and I looked at this.

I would say if you've got a major problem here, you know on the one hand I'd be like your ear Accuracy is fantastic I Couldn't really ask for much more. This is really good accuracy at 70% And doesn't it suck that you're 70% right? and you're still losing money? And that's because your profit loss ratio is so bad? So I would say what's going on with this profit loss ratio that's allowed to get this bad? You know what happened on this big trade? Well, why don't we? you know, look at you know or we look at the instrument volume or the instrument column and what happened on these. you know, top five biggest losers estr this one I Jumped into thinking it was going to go into a halt and I bought it like literally at high a day I didn't wait for a pullback GSB I bought that thing extremely high thinking it was going to go into a halt and it didn't s XTC was a gap and go trade gapping up with no news that I bought and it just dropped a dollar per share DF FN a gap and go trade that failed and just didn't work at all. So what I could say on each of these four trades one two, three four Which of course if I hadn't taken those four trades I that would have been a very very different month for trades.

Ruined my month of March for impulsive emotional trades where I did not wait for a pullback I just jumped right in. And you know those those ruin my month. So what I would say is that you know looking at this just through that kind of like you know stepping back you need to wait for confirmation. and if you're jumping into something without confirmation, you know sometimes that is going to be successful.

But you can't go in with full-size of nine or twelve or fifteen thousand shares because you're going to get crushed and you can see that's exactly what happened. Now on the flip side, what happened on some of the biggest winning stocks: PLA Gbb th PT S PTZ you know these ones I actually don't remember as well as the biggest losers, the biggest losers. they get kind of burned into your brain. So I couldn't say for sure that I wasn't doing some of the same things on these trades that I did on these and that you know the same thing didn't work here.

but it worked over here. So I couldn't say for sure that if I stopped, you know, buying just into a squeeze that it wouldn't also cost me some of my winners. But the first step has to be cutting the bleeding. You know, stopping the bleeding because this can't continue.

it's just not acceptable. And so of course today on ad excess I hesitated. rightfully so because this is the same setup that I lost on SXT s and D F FN S, Xt, C and D f FN And it granted, this one actually had great news today a drug that prolong survival with four metastatic prostate cancer patients, but it's still giving back almost. You know all of the gap despite goodness, so we don't trade the news, we trade the technicals and on this one hesitating was the right move.

and on Pol M it could have been a little more aggressive, but right now I just have to be in the mindset of slowly digging myself out of the hole. You know? I'm at the bottom of, you know, the the sharpest drawdown that I've had in recent trading history. Where's this win-loss expectation? Let's go here. We'll bring this all the way back back to 2000.

Well, we'll go to 2017. I'll just show you my equity curve since the beginning of the $583 challenge. Now updated through the end of last month. so sitting at about nine hundred and fifty thousand dollars, so I've got about fifty thousand between me and the million dollar goal.

Although I'm trying not to think about it, profit loss ratio is still about one to one accuracy. still about 67 percent. But new largest loss thanks to last month. Alright, so let's go back down here and that's what the equity curve looks like.

So this was what happened in March right there you know I mean it doesn't look that bad all things considered. You know this is the the journey that I've been on all the way down here from day one. You know, whatever day this was, you know, a couple. It's even hard to get the mouse on those days.

This is like 600 plus days of trading. but this was the beginning of the pullback. Er, it started right there. I bounced up and then I dropped again with another red day right there.

And this right here, as small as it looks, is the biggest pullback that I've had. You know this was a little bit of a pullback here. this was a little bit of a longer one here that was a sharp one right there. but I bounced back quickly.

a small one right here. So in this challenge I would say and this was the first one right down there and that right there was scary because I gave back about eight thousand dollars. you know, right in that in that window I went from being up 35,000 or so you had to being up only 16,000 I gave back a lot of profit. so you know these ones are actually scarier.

So one, two, three, four, five, six, seven sort of little obstacles that I've gone through on this challenge to take less than six hundred bucks and turn it into a million dollars. But what I need to do is base this out and start moving back up and I can't allow it to keep going down if I kept course doing the things that I was doing of jumping into stocks right off the scanners without confirmation. You know inevitably well, some who work, some won't, but it's it just isn't something I want to keep doing so I want to tighten up the risk? You know Today, well I was green. you know, towards the very end of the month from you know, 44 up to like 46 or something like that 48.

So recover just under $5,000 you know, recovered another 1500 today and we're just gonna keep grinding back up and working towards that that goal. But I have to trade the market. Not this challenge. I can't trade this number right here I have to just be trading the market that's in front of me because that was my biggest problem as I started trading my Pno trying to swing for the fences because I knew I was getting close to this big spot and this was the result.

The biggest drawdown that I've had forty-seven thousand dollars right there in this entire challenge I doubled my biggest drawdown my biggest one was 24,000 and I doubled it now I was doing bad right here when I was down 29,000 I had two days of recovery and then I had a third big red day in a row. So now I've had another three days of recovery and I have to be really careful I don't want another day like that I need to just you know keep going back up. So I want to hope that the the but the bottom is in the base is in and focus on you know rebuilding and again you know you don't take any of you who are thinking about trying to take 600 bucks and turn it into a million dollars. It's not gonna happen without taking risk.

You have to take risk. If you don't risk it, you're not gonna have you know any profit. I mean that's just the reality of this of this market. Now with my personal strategy, the way I personally trade wheat, you and I two of us or three of us or a hundred of us, we may all trade the same stock and have very different profits on it.

You know in a stock like Pol M I guarantee you and I know it because I saw you guys posting how much you made on it that a lot of you guys made more on this one than I did which is great. I'm happy for you, you know I'm happy that you guys got some big wins on this. This is a stock that I just trade a little bit more conservatively phas. Some of you guys maybe read on it more than me because you held it a little longer hoping it might do something like this, you know? So all of our P.m.

ELLs are going to be a little bit different and it's based on you know, our personal risk tolerance, our mental game where we're at on the week, the month of year, all these things factored in to the way we trade these stocks. So you know the strategy that I'm teaching you is not to just copy me. Ultimately, you know that's never going to work, even if you actually wanted to. The strategy that I teach is how to understand the behavior of these stocks.

and then you trade them the way that feels right for you. and that might mean taking more risk than me. It might mean taking less risk than me. And so for people who you know might say, well, Russ why should I learn from you? you're someone who's you know down 21 thousand dollars last month? I Think that there's certainly an opportunity to learn from that loss I Think that there's you know very clearly, a lot of students who did much better than me last month because they weren't swinging for the fences the way I was.

they weren't fixated on a million-dollar goal the way I was and the end result was very different. Certainly, John did much better than me last month. I Know how do you guys did? So you know it's one of those things where as hard as you might try not to let those external you know sort of things come in and impact your trading at the end of the day. it can be very difficult to to prevent that.

so you know all that is to say that it's the beginning of April It's a new month and we're continuing to see momentum which is awesome. Pol em great momentum today and even though I didn't make as much on it as maybe I could have, we saw some really good opportunities right out of the strategies that we teach: First pullback, second pullback, third pullback consolidation here. breakout. You know from a dollar, fifty, or three bucks, it's a hundred percent in one day.

So a lot of opportunity there and we're going to just keep focusing on these types of stocks. I'm you know, gonna try as much as I can not to really think about or even my PL on the month. Ultimately, what I would really love is that I just look back and I'm like whoa yesterday I crossed the million dollar mark that I stopped thinking about it to the point that it's gonna happen just on its own. Ultimately, that's much easier said than done because every day I'm looking at I'm talking about my P&L I'm talking about where I'm at on the week or on the month and you know I don't know that I can actually pull that out of my mind 100% but I'd like to try 280 XS Yes, it had the higher float.

However, it had just had a reverse split and so the adjusted flow was actually lower. So that's why I knew that it would trade. Much more volatile than a 68 million share float. Alright everyone, so as usual, I'll see you guys first thing tomorrow morning around 9:15 for pre market analysis and hopefully we can make a little bit of money for the second day of.

April All right, I'll see you guys tomorrow if you're still watching. you must have really enjoyed that video. so why not subscribe and get email alerts any time? I upload new content. Remember when you subscribe, you become a member of the Warrior Trading family.