I just sold my position in AMD after the stock ran up to my price target.
In this video I explain why I sold the stock and some of the logic in how I manage my investing portfolio.
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In this video I explain why I sold the stock and some of the logic in how I manage my investing portfolio.
☕️ JOIN MY PATREON - DISCORD, BONUS VIDEOS, TARGET PRICES, MODELS & MORE
https://www.patreon.com/sashayanshin
💵 GREAT INVESTING APPS I USE
INTERACTIVE BROKERS (Global - Main investing app I use)
https://bit.ly/ibkr-sasha
GET A FREE SHARE WORTH UP TO £100 WITH TRADING 212 (UK & Europe)
https://www.trading212.com/promocodes/SASHA
You need to sign up and make a deposit within 10 days to get a free share.
GET A $10 BONUS WITH LIGHTYEAR (UK & Europe)
https://lightyear.app.link/SashaYanshin
You need to use promo code "Sasha" and the bonus is awarded after your first trade.
DISCLAIMER: Your capital is at risk.
DISCLAIMER: Some of these links may be affiliate links. If you purchase a product or service using one of these links, I will receive a small commission from the seller. There will be no additional charge for you.
DISCLAIMER: (For Lightyear affiliate link) The provider of investment services is Lightyear Financial Ltd for the UK and Lightyear Europe AS for the EU. Terms apply: golightyear.com/terms. Seek qualified advice if necessary. Capital at risk.
DISCLAIMER: Trading 212 provides execution-only service. This video should not be construed as investment advice. Investments can fall and rise.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor and this is not a financial advice channel. All information is provided strictly for educational purposes. It does not take into account anybody's specific circumstances or situation. If you are making investment or other financial management decisions and require advice, please consult a suitably qualified licensed professional.
Hey guys, it's Sasha at the end of last week I sold one of the big positions in my portfolio and in this video I Want to tell you what I sold why I sold and what I'm doing with the money now that I have sold the stock and no I didn't sell because I'm panicking about the stock market and how everything is going to collapse. No. I also did not sell because I'm a Trader trying to time the market because I can draw random lines in the chart and I know exactly where the tops and bottoms are I am going to tell you exactly why I did sell in a minute. Now you might have noticed that I don't talk about individual stocks as much on the channel in the last few months and the reason is that as my channel has grown I have had to adapt and cover broader topics when my channel was small, going in depth on stock analysis and doing videos about individual companies was great.
The channel grew I got loads of views. People seem to like that kind of content I try to share unique takes and insights that some people seem to find useful. But recently my channel has crossed a hundred thousand subscriber Mark and my videos are now getting a lot more reach and I realized that the majority of my audience doesn't really want to watch stock analysis videos and whenever I made those videos, I took a lot of effort, but they got no views When I put out some videos in Q4 last year about individual stocks, they did very badly. So now I make that kind of content for my Discord members only if you want to join Discord to join the conversation if that kind of stuff is interesting.
the link to my Patreon is in the description. So last week there was a lot of discussion in the Discord about AMD because Malaysia's price target for MD was 110 and the stock broke through the hundred dollar barrier and my investing strategy is incredibly boring. Every stock that I own has a price Target The price Target in is my view of what a fair value for the company is right now: I Don't waste my time making dumbass pointless predictions like what seems to be incredibly popular on YouTube and world and investing I Don't invest in the stock because I looked at the tea leaves and told me that it will go to 173 on December 17th because all of the clowns have put out specific time-based stock price predictions are just making wild guesses that are coming out of their ass based on information they neither know nor have any ability to control. There is exactly zero way that you I anyone can know that a stock is going to go to any particular price.
At any particular point, there is zero way that you can know if a stock will ever hit a particular price. What you can know though is you can go and build a valuation of any business based on your own assessment based on all the information you have of the future cash flows of that business. Why those cash flows are going to be happening? How you derived all of your assumptions and you can determine what the potential risk profile around evaluation is and calculate what the upside is. The upside is the difference between the current share price and what you feel your fair price valuation is, and you probably want to have some confidence that there is a decent likelihood that as time progresses your valuation may increase if the company outperforms in the future. And my Approach is really dull if a company's share price Rises to match my valuation I Sell the stock I Do this every single time. It doesn't matter what the company is. If you've watched the channel for some time now a few years, you will have heard me say the same thing a long time before. This has happened with AMD Last week the share price for AMD broke 107 and I went and sold my entire position across all of my investing accounts I First sold it in my Man versus the Market portfolio.
You can see that I got out at 107.15 This is the small public portfolio that I openly share with my subscribers and on my channel, but the price went up a bit after. so I actually did a little bit better in my main accounts accidentally. My latest AMD valuation was pretty recent I only looked at it on May 3rd after they announced their Q1 result when the price was 81 and my Target price was 110. I've actually held AMD stock for a long while I've been a shareholder for years now so I've done pretty well out of that position I Recently moved my man versus the market portfolio to Interact Active Brokers because I love the platform and because Stake increased their fees.
If you want to check out interactive brokers, check out the link in the description I am really genuinely a big fan of the platform, but you can see that in the original Man versus the market portfolio I Bought most of the AMD stock at around 76 to 80 dollars, so selling out at 107 is a pretty decent 35 to 40 return. It's interesting that the Target price when I first started covering AMD stock on YouTube about two years ago was 125 dollars a little bit higher and my Target price actually went up way higher than that towards a 200 Mark As the business was exploding, the Xeilings acquisition happened and the stock market was going absolutely bananas in 2021 and everyone was buying AMD processors. I clearly massively overestimated the long-term Optics at the time on AMD and my Target price went way too high, but it then reverted back to 120 in November. Last year and after the recent economic slowdown affected AMD sales, my Target price fell down to 110.
And here here is the interesting thing: There is every chance that I am selling early I am never claiming that I know that it's going to stop now and go down. This happens all the time to me I saw Nvidia at about 205 dollars back in 2021 when the stock ran up, it hit my price Target I made a pretty decent return, but it's now 50 higher so I missed out. Oh dear. this will happen all the time with my investing approach.
but I don't really care I'm not here to try and guess the exact tops the exact bottoms I am here to play the game of averages I Know, insanely boring, but it yields far better results in the long term and it's done pretty well for me so far. So there we go: AMD could run up really high because the economy might start recovering in the second half this year. Maybe confidence is going to return. People are going to start buying more stuff. They end up performing parts of Amd's business like retail sales might pick up the AI craze could go nuts and AMD might write Nvidia's coattails and the stock could go absolutely Bonkers It's possible, but I never hold on to a stock for the what if scenarios because the exact opposite could also happen the AI craze. The bubble might just burst and people will move on to something else. The economic slowdown might be protracted and AMD is going to be affected for a long time and this is going to affect their sales in the future because you're gonna have to discount them by more and more. I See a lot of Finance channels on YouTube who fall in love with a particular stock and they will never sell no matter what they become.
Absolute Fanboys They will huddle. They will never dare say anything negative about the company I Never understood why people join fan clubs of stocks. Personally, it's a pretty sad sort of a fan club. It's incredibly dull and boring, but people will join one and then sit there on social media all day singing praises of the company and saying how amazing everything is.
I Love AMD The company I use their products for my work. I'm recording this on the computer that runs on an AMD processor because it's the best that money can get. But my valuation says that there is no more upside to the stock from my personal evaluation because I have collected it now I've done it. I actually haven't sold stocks much at all recently because the financial downturn means that a lot of stocks took a big beating on their share price, including ones that I hold.
The last position that I got out of was Palantir and I saw that at a loss almost a year ago and the last big position that I saw before that was Adobe which was in August 2021. I even made a video about it on my channel right here, but I had about three subscribers at the time. so I don't think any of you probably have seen it. So in this case, the model is telling me that the share price right now is two percent overvalued using my pretty aggressive 30 per year growth rate assumption.
and I've actually held a long position in Adobe until today. but I have just sold off all of my shares and I no longer hold any position and they'll be including my man versus the market portfolio. So that's the first cell that I've made in that portfolio and I'm moving the money to other places I love the product I love the company I personally use their products and I really really like them I think they're great value, but in my view the stock is just priced too high. So I've taken my gains and put my funds into some other stocks today. Higher expectations I'm great for so I don't sell stocks very often or lightly I know, boring, right? But whenever a stock runs up to show no upside against my valuation, I will sell every single time because my thesis is that I want my money to always work as hard as possible for me at all times I don't want my money sitting in a stock that I don't think should be priced higher that I only think should be going up. it might go up, but it doesn't really matter I buy stocks when my valuation is significantly higher than the current share price because the theory for me is that if my valuation is more like accurate than the current consensus among the investing Community then eventually as quarters pass as more data turns up and proves that this accuracy if it is more people will agree with my valuation and the share price will therefore increase. I Have a zero idea when that might happen or if that will ever happen. but this approach has worked very well for me for a long time now and I intend on doing the same exact thing going forward now.
I don't like sitting on cash so I redistributed the money that I got from named sale immediately. Most of it went into my existing positions I bought more Tesla more Fiverr and more Pinterest But I also opened up a new position that I haven't carried before and I haven't talked about on this channel I Shared the valuation of this new one in the Discord last week. Hopefully I'm going to have some time to put together a video at some point in the future on this YouTube channel as well. The funny thing is that now I have sold AMD all of the positions in my man versus the market portfolio are now in the red because I started this challenge in May 2021.
That just happens to be the time that I began talking about stocks on YouTube There wasn't any specific reason why I picked that particular timeline. it just happened. but it did mean that I was buying most of the stocks in that portfolio in 2021 at the peak of the market because I invest so much in growth stocks for the long term. A lot of the stocks that I own got hit pretty hard as the economy went South But the great thing about the financial downturns that happened is that every Smackdown is followed by a boom phase and I'm extremely happy to sit here collecting a few more of my favorite stocks and waiting for the boom phase whenever that comes.
And hopefully I will have to sell some more of my positions at some point sooner rather than later as they run up towards my target as well. If you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the YouTube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching and I'll see you later. Foreign.
Sasha, What is the new mystery stock that you have invested in?
People always forget that the point of the market is to make money and nothing else and you do that by selling, not holding onto your fav company forever like a teadybear
If you can hone your ability to analyze the concept of effort vs. result and price vs. volume and the manipulation structure you can get pretty close. Throw human emotion on top of that and it's no walk in the park, requiring the effort of a full time job at minimum. This is what Ben Graham referred to as the active investor.
Congrats on 100k subs!
I rly like this kind of videos
Sasha, would you be able to create a video covering your method to determine valuation of companies?
Sniff it
Any TLDR summary?
I might sell off my GOOG position
Anyone else terrified that the selling Adobe video was 2 years ago- apparently I’m one of the three who remembers that coming out
Just a suggestion, if you want your YouTube channel to grow even more you should show us how you come up with valuations, a working session step-by-step
AMD, like other chip manufactures, have been badly affected by the restriction of sales to China. I sold 50% of my AMD stock last week, and will sell the remainder when it hits 110. Given your views, I might just sell the remaining 50% today.
hey thanks for explaining how you do it, I can see the benefits. My style of trading is more philosophical more instinctive 😃 It's like the tai-chi version of trading. But it's also possible I'm trading for fun.
total BS- financial and technical anal is better than financial anal alone.
How much do you get paid for making click bate titles and talking?
How dare you talk about Nancy Pelosi like this. Her tea leaf predictions work wonders.
I was 99 % up at the time of xylinx merge and was holding out for an exact 💯. Sigh….. crashed back down to 20 ish % down 😆 bought another 50 at a lower price and just sold 25 of them yesterday for a free flutter elsewhere… probably PayPal or throw it in my Bank of America dividend. Fear in banks = opportunity or stupidity 😆
Any thoughts on MMM?
These crazy prices for chips are insane. Nvidia sales are backwards and prices goes up due to this AI craze. I just don’t see the sales coming to Nvidia like the market thinks.
Imagine if they default and then you actually start panicking
I'm sad your stock analysis is behind a paywall. Your most valuable videos
👀
Hey Sasha, any new thoughts on fiverr. It's share price has gotten much more appealing lately
Your clips will stand the test of time….history will smile on you, Sacha. Thank you for your candid opinions
I’m genuinely a fan in the whole but some of your stock picks were 😂, not the best ……. Although you can only be on a hiding to nothing when you do that so I don’t blame you.
Sold mine last week at $106. Always leave a bit for the next person! Hoping AMD now goes down with next update so that I can buy again as I too think it has a rosy future. Thanks for all the sound advice Sasha.
Here is an idea,keep screaming it is the end of the world with flame backgrounds on your thumbnails so you can get that initial viewing.
Good job on video though
That altro..😂..
I like it much better when you plug something that is truly worthwhile. IB is and has been my go-to brokerage for twenty years. Its rock-bottom margin fees let me play my high-yield bonds (bought a the absolute bottom in 2008-10) and sit back and run the bond machine for nearly ten years. An insanely cushy deal possible only with IB!
Sasha do you often get back in to stock you sell if they got back down below your target again? Adobe you mentioned you sold in 2021 it is way below that level now so do you
buy?