Well, Tesla's price cutting ended up hurting Tesla and their earnings actually went negative year over year. which is absolutely horrible because if you're trying to calculate an average 30 percent growth for EPS for Tesla, you're screwed. If earnings stay negative now, there's obviously still hope that maybe EPS at the end of the year can be positive and hopefully in excess of 30, but the margin hit that Tesla token Q1 is painful and the reality is Elon Musk made it really clear he doesn't really care if they make any money or not on these cars right now. they just want to make them and get them off the shelf because essentially they take more EV market share.

But this has led Goldman Sachs to agree that yes, Tesla is taking more EV market share. But unfortunately Goldman Sachs response is a lower price target for Tesla. Unfortunately, PP is shrinking faster than a skier without pants on in a blizzard. Unfortunately, pricing power is waning and Tesla's a once believed super strong margins while still best relatively in the industry, just starts starting to get a little soft and nobody likes the soft PP because we all invest for big peepee massive pricing power, but unfortunately Goldman Sachs believes that is starting to slightly.

Wane Goldman Sachs projects a 185 dollar 12-month price target for Tesla which basically gives you a nominal upside for the rest of the year. They reiterate some of what we heard in earnings yesterday, but they see massive costs ahead, including the new Factory ramps the Northeast Mexico Obviously outside of Shanghai, we're going to have a new facility the 4680 facility. Uh, well, that's the mega pack facility outside of Shanghai. Along with ramping Berlin and Austin, we've got lost a lot of costs ahead and a massive free cash flow missed by Tesla wasn't expected by many I think I was one of the views warning that we could have a massive free cash flow Miss But it wasn't just that it was also the margin miss that really hurt now.

Goldman Sachs does promote Tesla suggesting hey, their energy storage business could actually do really well, especially since they've got the software to really position their energy storage business well. However, their their demand elasticity seems to be fading. In other words, yeah, they're able to improve Demand by cutting prices. But the problem with that is they're hitting their margins pretty heavily.

now. we could look at again some of the potential upsides and this is where I actually wrote over here that in Q1 one of the upsides is Tesla took some one-time non-recurring warranty adjustments and service adjustments. Some issues that they say they no longer face. However, keep in mind they did tell us that margin shouldn't fall under 20 percent.

They told us that in Q4 and what did we get? We got 19.3 margin so we got clickbait. But another thing that I noticed that Tesla did not do uh, very clearly or at least they didn't clearly outline it in Q1 is they did not break down their FSD beta revenue and it's possible based on what we heard in commentary from the earnings call that they didn't actually take FSD beta recognition as Elon Musk described. FSD is basically taking two steps forward. One step back.

No. Revenue recognition here means that in the future they could really end up potentially pumping Tesla by taking that Revenue recognition and getting back to EPS growth. Now it does make you scratch your head because once again, Kimball Musk killed it with the timing of his sales. It seems like Kimball Musk is honestly better then Nancy Pelosi at being able to well time selling Tesla sales or shares.

Take a look at this chart here that floats around on Twitter and it shows you a little red circle every time Kimball Musk sells shares. He just sold about 19 million dollars worth of Tesla stock in the first week of April and once again it appears as if certainly he didn't have Insider information he just happened to perfectly time. Tesla Once again. Now Goldman Sachs is slightly bearish here in my opinion with their low forecast, but they actually give some really dirty low forecasts for the future and I want you to see some of those now.

Do keep in mind that they do say on the bull side that Tesla is expanding their current addressable Market They're getting with these lower prices to a completely new market, which in my opinion is kind of like a way of saying hey, Tesla's advertising by creating new network Effects by creating or opening up Teslas to a new lower tier of customer that might otherwise be looking at more expensive other vehicles. This is leading to Tesla's market share in European countries trending higher. We've got a nice uptrend on Tesla's market share in Europe of the total Bev Not just, uh, not just hybrid or sorry ice ice compared to EV market share, but the battery Electric market share Tesla clearly has a dominance here and is expanding. The same is true for Tesla's EV stake in China.

The same is true for the battery Electric market in China We've got some beautiful uptrends on Tesla and you ultimately have uh Goldman Sachs here projecting that you could see 16 percent of Tesla's total revenues end up coming from their energy business in the future. Which is interesting because just yesterday I made projections about Tesla and I wrote down that a total revenue from energy could be somewhere around 10 to 15 percent. I ended up doing my analysis based on 10, but this was similar to what I was suggesting yesterday that I had highly undervalued how much revenue could end up coming from the energy business from EPS estimates This though scary scary. Goldman Sachs estimates here Goldman Sachs estimates that in 2024, you might see earnings per share at just 3.65 This is pretty dirty because if you end up only assigning a peg of One X to Tesla at that level, you end up with a price target of 91 dollars for Tesla in 24.

that's really bad. They round that to roughly 90. If you take my peg multiple of 1.67 at 3.65 you end up with a price of closer to 152.. So I'll write 152 at Kevin's 1.67 for a peg.

But this is a big downside collapse here for EPS growth. and we really need to see that EPS growth step up. So this is going to be something we have to pay attention to. almost potentially more than margin is the fact that EPS growth went negative year over year is very bad because it destroys all the valuation estimates for Tesla Now I Personally agree with Elon Musk that the Sun comes out next year.

And yes, Autos are hit hard Autos get hit hard in stagflationary environments Ally Financial Taking massive losses. They're a lot of auto companies are getting cut off from lending to used cars. You've got folks like CarMax taking massive new lost reserves for subprime models, so the lower tier segment of the Autos Market is already trash. and if any of that trickles into, well, the Tesla higher tier territory where you're generally selling to higher net worth individuals who unfortunately, are also getting laid off in finance.

and Tech if they can't find new jobs, maybe a Tesla is not the right answer and this could potentially lead to more price cuts for Teslas And that unfortunately is what people are saying is that right now Tesla is an environment of fear where we don't know how much more Tesla's going to have to cut. These were the Tesla price decreases in U.S China and Germany. You could see them continue to Trend down on the right over here and the odds are we're going to see more of that going forward that is going to potentially create either a hell of a stock to own or the opportunity of a lifetime to buy Tesla at massive discounts. I Personally believe that if you're an investor in Tesla you need to be prepared to Diamond hand this sucker until at least 12 months from now.

Talk to me after Q1 earnings 2024 After those cyber truck delivery start after energy ramps after Austin and Berlin further ramp after we get those, Mega packs out and we really start getting to an Era of massive free cash flows again and profits. Until then, I'm gonna enjoy watching a giant penis go fly into the air via nothing other than of course this Starship launch. So if you want to see the Starship launch, buckle up because here we go because really, Tesla stock is probably going to explode just like this Starship is probably going to explode I Have no idea what's going to happen I'm filming this live. Wow Wow! And if all goes according to plan and there's other things that have to happen too for Artemis Oh it blew up this system as soon as and it's a very Yay! we got our boob Yay! We're so happy it blew up.

I Mean it's still pretty cool. Clear the path like the first integrated like of the Baster and the Starship vehicle. five new bear of our control center at Star base there's Elon.