Welcome back to another BLS Jobs report. Oh snap. Here we go. We are, uh, two minutes and 30 seconds away.

This is a very big deal because the market is specifically now selling off, not because of inflationary concerns, but because of recessionary concerns. That's right. So in other words, the market is convinced that inflation may have peaked in June of 2022. But now, the concern is that the Federal Reserve is going to keep rates so high at five percent for so long that they're absolutely going to crush this economy.

now. of course, when we look at the Jobs data we've been getting so far, so far, everything's been peachy, but then again, Jobs data is super lagging. We've had some strong War notices at the beginning of the year suggesting we should start seeing lower job gains either. Now for the April report which comes out right now or in May which that report comes out in June we should start seeing some of those uh, warn notices actually show up in the liking data like the job support.

But the Jobs report is really important because if we end up getting a beat like we did on the ADP report a few days ago, we could be in this Bizarro Goldilocks Insanity land where all of a sudden the economy is not trending into a recession because if people get fired and get another job, then maybe they can spend us not into a recession. Uh and uh. And we could actually potentially have more time to beat inflation, which is exactly what Jerome Powell wants. Drum Power wants time to beat inflation.

Now the Bond market is convinced we're going to get rate Cuts this year. Of course, anytime I even suggest that the Bond market suggests we're going to get rate Cuts This year, people think I'm saying oh, we're definitely going to get rate Cuts this year. Is that what? I'm saying Jerome Powell Made it very clear that we're not going to get rate Cuts until we see Services X housing inflation fall and he believes that could happen within two months. Now if we do get that that inflation falling and Services X housing within the next two months, we get those data releases and we get some good positive indicators.

Hey, then maybe we start talking about Cuts But until then now, we gotta focus on jobs now. The ADP data came out two days ago two days ago. Oh my lordy, we had some beautiful data on the ADP report. Uh, In other words, rather than getting 150 000 jobs, we got 296 000 jobs.

Now we're expecting 185 000 jobs for non-farm payroll. Unemployment rate of 3.6 comes out in about the next 10 seconds. Buckle up folks and do remember that you can now make more money and get sh 90 done faster with the new rebranded AI course and Elite Hustlers course linked down below. Coupon expires tonight.

Here it is 253. Another strong report. Wow. Ooh, average hourly earnings not so great, taking up a little bit from 4.2 to 4.4 You've got a change in private payrolls coming in at 230 versus the 160 expectation ship.

Oh uh. average hourly earnings month over month at 0.5 Not so ideal. Uh, we're getting that that push up there in that wage inflation segment Again, See, That's exactly what you actually don't want is you don't want to see that wage inflation kind of taking up because wage inflation is directly related to Services X Housing Services X Housing inflation is driven by wage inflation. Well, wage inflation just ticked up.

We were at point three last time on the month over month, we were expecting 0.3 we got 0.5 Not great. We were looking at uh, 4.2 Year over year we got 4.4 Uh, now let's look at the actual BLS report. Well, I pull up that BLS report because I didn't get to finish my thought. The point is, this is a freaking awesome course to help you build more money and make more money.

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Well, price will be going up tonight. Uh, okay. so BLS Labor Report: Uh, let's see here. So I'm pulling up the actual report right now.

Let me. Oh, here we go. We've got it made. Five: Okay, here's the actual Rapport So let's see what we've got here: Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 3.4 Employment continues to Trend up in professional Business services Healthcare Leisure Hospitality Social Assistance Both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed person changed little in April That's fine.

Uh, it was really the pay. I Want to see why that pay moved up so much. The number of persons jobless five weeks decreased. See, this is not recessionary.

The Jobless now. Uh, people. The people jobless. Five weeks decreased by almost half a million here.

Four hundred and Six thousand that's jobless for less than five weeks. Now, keep in mind, one of the reasons you see this uh is Uh is is partly because there are so many jobs still available. And so there's this idea that okay, well, as long as people can keep getting jobs, maybe no recession. Uh, we did just get our revisions.

Oh wow, that is so what weird freaking data is this? The prior jobs release was 236 000. They just revised that down to 165 000 and the private payrolls in the last one was 189 and they just revised that down to 243. And they revised up the prior year over year inflation. Wage Read from four, two to four three.

Really mixed report. Still wrong. but what we just beat by they basically took away in the revision which is really weird because it it basically tells you okay well we didn't really create any uh, any more jobs than expectations here. I Mean if we do the actual math, we're looking at a beat here.

253 was the beat. Uh much in line with the ADP report, 253 was the beat We beat by 68 000 jobs. but that's and that might be fine. But they just removed 236 minus 165.

They just removed 60 or 71 000 jobs. So you basically have uh now an app at Expectation Employment Report when you consider the the revisions and the takeaways they did. But the big concern is that uh, that wage growth segment which is not fantastic because as much as we want inflation to to go away uh we don't want any indicators suggesting that hey the FED needs to stay higher for longer and this is uh, this is is a little bit that while not being as rosy of an employment report as initially thought because of those revisions. So let's see employment continues to end up in professional Business services.

And this is also wild. How are professional Business services still moving up now at 43 000 with an average monthly gain at 25 000 employment and Health Care increased 40 000 in April compared with the average monthly gain of 47 000. Leisure and Hospitality up 31 000 also above Trend Social Assistance added 25 000 in line with the 21. employment and financial activities increased 23k uh with insurance carriers and related activities up 15K and real estate up 9k.

Wow. Employment and financial activities changed little in the first three months. Okay, I mean this is not a weak report at all. and now we do tend to get fluctuations in these average hourly earnings.

but let me see if I can figure out why. Uh, Okay, so here's the what is this: Uh, here's that point: five percent on the month over month Over the past 12 months. Uh, they've increased an average of 4.4 percent, so we're still at that average sort of uh, although 0.5 percent annualizes to six percent inflation which is too much in April average hourly earnings in the private sector Production: non-supervisory Rose point four percent Fine. Okay, what about the work week? Wow.

Interesting. The work week was unchanged. An unchanged work week over time. consistent production, non-supervisory Edge Down a little bit okay.

And then we got our revisions. Wow, this is very interesting. Then you've also got the labor force participation rate. Uh, sitting at Uh 62.6 Let's see, here at 62.6 was the expectation.

Let me get one of the tables here. This is an interesting report to really break down though, because even though it looks like we beat, they just revised down the job gains for last month. So really, we're at expectations for kind of both months. so you don't really have a hot job support like the ADP report suggested.

But you do have slightly hotter inflation, which isn't great, because to some extent that's a little bit of the worst of both. anyway. So uh, let's look at the household data. What the household data say? So Household? Uh, let's see here.

Civilian. Let's see here. Labor Force Interesting. The civilian force on the household survey actually fell 43 000 jobs.

Now that is interesting so and also not great. That's a little bit more of a recessionary red flag, so what does that mean? So there are two surveys, right? There's the payrolls The Establishment survey. That's the headline we always read. And then there's the household survey.

So how can the payroll survey come in at a read of 253 000. when the household survey comes in at negative 43 000.? Well, that is a potential early indicator. Or finally, the employment reports starting to roll over. So here's how this works.

So write this down. The first thing that you want to write down is existing course members. get this AI upgrade Totally for free if you're in that Elite Hustlers group. And if you're not, you'll want to lock in that price today before it goes up.

Uh, tonight? 11 59. You're going to love the productivity segments. It's all about how you can actually make more money using these new AI uh options that we have anyway. the number One payrolls data.

So payrolls is. Think about it as the BLS calling businesses How many payrolls you got? Okay, well, this double counts people or potentially triple counts people. Uh, that's because they're calling businesses and asking how many pay rules there are. Well, if somebody works with two businesses, then the businesses answer twice.

Right now, if we look at the household survey, the BLS calls people to ask if they have a job. and this is very fascinating. The Civilian Labor force? Uh, well. hold on a second here.

Uh, maybe I Read the wrong number. Hold on a second civilian labor force. The civilian labor force fell 43 000. Ah, wait, no, no.

Yep. I read that wrong. Sorry about that. The labor force fell 43 000.

Ah, okay. the household survey itself actually grew by 139 000. Okay, all right. so uh, the Household survey is actually still.

we've got growth. growth growth growth. Well, actually, both sides of the data is still strong there. both the um, uh, payrolls data at 253 000 despite that negative revision for last month.

yeah, it's still strong though. and uh, and the household status here. sorry, misread that, but now you can see where the data is too. so it's good for you to see that.

Okay, so so both sides of that unemployment report? strong we've got here we go. Job Leavers Job Believers at negative 55 000. so less of that and that really contributes to a wage spiral is when you have people leaving, they tend to get twice, uh, the expected pay increase that you would, uh if you stayed at your job year over year. So it's not as easy as saying this is a good reporter.

Bad report I would call this a very mixed report. Uh, I Guess if I were to give all of this report a bottom line, So what would my bottom line look like, my bottom line would be this: uh, this is not uh, recessionary. It's not a recessionary report. Uh, this.

It was expected to potentially be a recessionary report. Uh, it's also not a boom report. Uh, thanks to the negative revision, however, it also indicates we still have some work to do on inflation given that wages are up point five percent month over month. But this can be volatile in the employment report now.

Uh, worth knowing that CPI comes out in just uh, what five days. So CPI in five days. So mark your calendar for May 10th and then mark your calendar for June 13th, May 10th, June 13th. You'll want to be there for those uh CPI days.

So I would, yeah, call this report mix. Let me see what other data we have here. Let's also see what what uh CNBC has to say here. All you need is one strong jobs number one, uh Inflation report to get the FED funds back to a 25.

Uh, but but it's not. No. I know because it's not I Don't think the the jobs numbers shouldn't do it, but the inflation number could do it. yeah next week.

In other words, this is not too strong to where you have to go back to hiking. Thanks to those revisions, that's an important concept because let's remember the FED is looking for a 4.6 unemployment rate by the end of the year. We just want to tick away from that idea. So part of their whole construct is this: rise in unemployment eases up, gives looses up, the economy takes some of the inflationary pressure away.

Uh, and and you have a declining Uh inflation rate, well to the extent that wages may be driving inflation. Certainly perhaps on the service side, which is Powell's concern. You're not getting that. Um, I I have a hard time Joe understanding the pricing of the of the FED funds market.

For example, the three-month treasury bill is trading at 520 and change or 527. but the three-month uh uh, fed funds Future Let's see, what would that be? uh August or so is it 4.99 I Don't understand what the Gap is. They'll be ripped us because it's a log Jam because every month's predicated on the value of the preceding month having its effect on the new month. So that Log Jam makes it different than the Standalone Tebow auction.

What was oil trying to tell us at 69? maybe up above 70 again? But I mean it? doesn't That tell us that a lot of the Fed's work is already done in terms of demand? and Global growth or not, Look, the signs are pointing in different directions and that's the thing we've been struggling with for the last year. Um, there's been some economic slowdown. The job market just doesn't seem to be budging. Although I would say sometimes these things move uh, all of a sudden, so we do need to Then all of a sudden.

exactly. You know I do want to talk about oil quickly? Uh, because uh, oil has been hitting the um, oversold level here for quite a while. Uh, and anytime it does, it tends to be a bullish bet. Look at how weak oil has been I mean it's been weaker than this? Fibonacci right? So this this FIB over here is is way off.

I Mean we could? we could replace this on Uso right now, Which we may as well do because it just looks like crap. Uh, so let's draw a new FIB since it's been a while since we've been on this chart and uh, let's align that quickly. What do we got here? We got 92 20 on one side and 61.81 61, 81, 92 20. All right, Fibs cleaned up.

Uh oh nope. Apparently not. 5783 is, actually, well, 57 83. there we go.

Okay, but uh, look at the relative strength index over here. I mean you fell below. You almost hit 30 again here. Uh, on, uh on on Uso It looks like he fell down to about 31 and the last time we got this low on oil, it was actually bullish to bet on oil.

But then again, we did get the Boost of the Uh Saudi and OPEC production Cuts right here. So a little bit unfair. but usually when we fall this low I mean look, it's it's you get a rally, you get. Uh, you get a rally, you get a rally.

and here we are again at a low RSI So wouldn't be surprising to see a little bit of a pickup again in oil. but uh, for right now these oil numbers are are great for helping us get CPI down. which is fantastic. Uh, as far as this, uh, this employment report I I mean I I Want to see what the suits are saying about it here? But to me again, the bottom line is it's not a recessionary report, but it is.

Uh, it is one that is going to reiterate how important inflation still is. So let's say what we've got here: Employment data was stronger than expected, suggesting more labor market tithing. However, the headline at Beat was more than offset. well, slightly more than offset, uh, by the downward revisions from the prior two months.

So it's a net dovish development. all right. Fine, Uh, but the unemployment rate matched cyclical lows thanks to a slight drop in the labor force, right? We saw the employment uh, the civilian population decline. That was that 49 000 number I read you.

uh and monthly pay gains were at 0.5 well above expectations. taking a face value that suggests the labor market is tight enough to Spur a more aggressive firming uh for uh for for what wages are being offered. So, in other words, you still have such a tight labor market that businesses to some extent are still offering more money to get people employed should we take it at face value. Anecdotal data like the Beige Book suggests that pay pressure is moderating I agree with that based on what we're seeing in earnings calls, and the jolt suggests labor demand has slackened.

Moreover, downward revisions are exactly when you tend to see turning points. Ooh, and that raises questions of how reliable the headline figures are. Okay, so that's a fancy way of saying that when the market uh starts turning in other words, or maybe not necessarily the market, but when jobs data starts turning and numbers start getting bad, the reliability of your headline numbers is low. So you end up with more revisions in the subsequent month as it's easier to sort of perfect.

Uh, what the data really is. So in other words, it's so early into May Right now, you know this report was probably done a few days ago. Uh, that, uh, that? maybe we just don't have all the reliable data yet from April Of course, everybody reiterates the idea that uh, hey, well, when when is the government status reliable, but uh, it gets. Even if you can imagine it, it gets even less reliable as you get closer to a, uh, potential recession or uh, bottom uh, in in the economy.

So that might be consistent with some of these large revisions that we're seeing here. So uh, it's certainly not an overly hot report where we would expect the Federal Reserve to say. that's it. That's it.

We gotta raise rights immediately. Uh, but it is gonna be a higher for longer style report. Uh, and I think again, it shift. It just shifts the burden onto the CPI reports so not horribly concerned.

Uh, but it is. uh, it is something I'm paying attention to. All right. great.

So what else we got here? Uh, let's see. looking at some of your comments here. Good time to buy Sofa Man. So if I got hit, huh yeah, Sofa is certainly on a discount right now.

Uh Open Door beat. Although they're not up as much as I was expecting them to be up, they did be there up about six percent right now. Uh Steve here says uh, this will be worse than 2008. Palantir is gonna buy your mega yacht.

What's what's Palantir at these days? I like pounds here I think I think they're pretty cool, but I can't invest in them? uh at the moment I think they're a great company though. so they're at seven bucks right now. Why don't we try to do something about plain old greed and price gouging? How many CEOs are receiving 25 million dollars in annual compensation? Well, Frank So you would actually appreciate reading an article from The Economist which actually Dives directly into this idea of price gouging at corporations. Uh, it's an argument that Elizabeth Warren makes a lot on.

TV She says that 40 of inflation is due to price gouging. The Economist Did a study on that data and and they did not find it now. Uh, and they lay left. So they would be inclined to agree with the leftists who were saying that.

So uh, and I'm not saying there certainly aren't companies who are doing price gouging, but some of their argument was prices have gone up like there was so much demand. Prices across the board have gone up. So uh, you know a strictly looking at uh CEO compensation I'm I'm not convinced is uh is is the correct metric to suggest that companies are are price gouging or not I mean that's that's always been the case that CEO has been paid a lot. Anyway, let's see here.

Uh. shop got rid of its fulfillment Did they? What? No, they were talking about expanding their fulfillment business. Uh, they were just talking about that. Uh I and I always expected that to be a very expensive part of their business.

Yeah I don't see where you're seeing the uh oh yesterday yeah sells their business to Flexport? Wow and Deliver Cut staff. Oh wow, you're right. I Totally missed that I don't invest in Shopify So I don't go so deep into Shopify Uh, I Saw they cut staff but wow, That's actually really interesting because one of the big problems that I've had with Shopify and one of the reasons I haven't invested in Shopify was because I thought, why why the hell would you get into fulfillment That is like the most nasty kind of business to be in. It's extremely expensive.

Uh, it's extremely challenging and it's basically a race to the bottom. Wow, You're right. Flag Sport agreed to buy the logistics arm of Shopify and Deliverer. Wow.

and Shopify is just taking an equity stake in Flag Sport. Very interesting. That's a yeah, very very good idea here. Um, so good.

good for Shopify I'm glad I'm glad they killed that because that that was my biggest excuse for not wanting to invest in that company. I'll have to take another look at that. maybe the course member livestream. Remember you get lifetime access still to the course member live streams and everything if you join the Uh featuring AI course where the AI products come out on.

June 1st it's free for the existing members of the the Elite Hustlers course which is now the how to make more Money and get done faster course. Um, you will. Um, you'll also have lifetime access to all those fundamental analysis lectures whether it's on real estate analysis or stock analysis. We do that all in the course member live stream together and you get the whole archive too.

Of all the actual Fundy analysis that we've gone deep on. Uh, but wow. Really, really good observation there. Thank you for mentioning that that was great.

May sound anecdotal, but most hiring resources, recruits, hiring departments have been downsized or let go. So while the job number available seems high, the actual throughput to fill these jobs will not match. Yeah. I That's a really uh interesting observation as well.

Just the idea that hey, if you have smaller hiring departments, it's going to take longer to actually, uh, hire people. Interesting observation: What is what is Becky saying? Hold on a sec Pastor Mario Gabelli He is the Chairman and CEO of Gamco Investors and Mario we get to see you here every year. Mario I Know that you are. What does Mario have to say about this jobs report? It's not necessarily company fundamentals and not necessarily the big picture, but there's some really weird stuff happening in the big picture right now and I can't imagine.

It's not factoring. it's in its way into how you think about things. Clearly, one has to think about how the banks could break an old philosophy. what Buffett does Becky What he did was he gets his float I pay him for my insurance and then he doesn't have to pay me for three or four years.

He takes that so he borrowed. The other guys take my deposits and lend very long. Rule 101: It's a challenge and then they had an account. Insurance is better than banking.

Yeah, I agree. If you can't get your money back, you've got deposits are sustainable. You've got your insurance that it's been paid for and you get the benefit of that down the road. So the second part of what Buffett does is patience.

In other words, step back and look at the cycles and he knows their. Cycles I mean I started covering Otto's farm equipment conglomerates in the media and entertainment and and during that period, the banks lost money on what they called oil tankers and I said why Then in the 70s they lost money with the banks and then the real Kahuna was in 1990 with the savings alone and they passed a tax a rule called hold to maturity and that's what the FED should look at. How do we change that? All right, We don't need an explanation on how scammy hold to maturity. Accounting is where you basically say ah, all my losing assets that don't worry I'm Diamond handing those I don't need to take any loss on those because I'm Diamond handing them uh but anyway, uh, we're gonna hop over soon to the course member live stream.

We're going to be going through the bill earnings Bill.com I've had some of, uh, my personal, uh, stock exposure increased to a Bill.com actually initiated a position in it just about what? Three weeks ago, Two weeks, Three weeks ago. Something like that, and uh, the fundamentals look great. then uh, it's up 14. Haven't looked at the earnings yet, but uh, obviously some excitement there for Bill.com so we'll dive into that, uh, open door.

As much as I absolutely hate and despise the company, it's actually a complete, in my opinion, bargain. Uh, where it is right now. It's extremely inexpensive if you look at the uh, their, uh, their balance sheet and how strong Q1 has been for for housing. uh, I think they're they're a little bit, uh, a price below book right now and now now Then again, I still hate the company.

So don't get me wrong, I have a hard time actually wanting to own the company. Uh, but uh yeah, we'll see. Uh, we'll see how the day goes. but I think I think really? if we get a good, decent CPI report the next two reports, that's when we could maybe really start seeing some actual fed.

uh Cuts Realistically priced in right now, it still seems like, uh, impossible. especially with these these uh wage numbers. Uh, stable on the wage numbers. but slightly inflationary.

That's going to be. uh, it's gonna be a while before we see any kind of cuts. It's all going to come down to those CPI reports so we'll see. and anyway, otherwise we'll wait until then.

I'll keep drinking coffee and I'll see you in the course member live stream soon. Thanks so much for being here and we'll see you soon! Bye.