The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
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The Federal Reserve conducts the nation’s monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy; promotes the stability of the financial system and seeks to minimize and contain systemic risks through active monitoring and engagement in the U.S. and abroad; promotes the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions and monitors their impact on the financial system as a whole; fosters payment and settlement system safety and efficiency through services to the banking industry and the U.S. government that facilitate U.S.-dollar transactions and payments; and promotes consumer protection and community development through consumer-focused supervision and examination, research and analysis of emerging consumer issues and trends, community economic development activities, and the administration of consumer laws and regulations.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available.
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The Federal Reserve conducts the nation’s monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy; promotes the stability of the financial system and seeks to minimize and contain systemic risks through active monitoring and engagement in the U.S. and abroad; promotes the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions and monitors their impact on the financial system as a whole; fosters payment and settlement system safety and efficiency through services to the banking industry and the U.S. government that facilitate U.S.-dollar transactions and payments; and promotes consumer protection and community development through consumer-focused supervision and examination, research and analysis of emerging consumer issues and trends, community economic development activities, and the administration of consumer laws and regulations.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available.
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So we definitely do not have to. but tomorrow the unemployment rate is going to be released one hour before the Market opens. In this video, I'm going to be breaking down the current Market's expectation. Depending if we get reported above or below, we'll determine if the market sells off or if the market continues to rise.
Now yes, the stock market is closed tomorrow, but I Wanted to see if you guys wanted to check the NASDAQ futures Market as that even continues to run even when other major markets are not open. So I wanted to ask you tomorrow. one hour before the Market opens, the unemployment rate is going to get released and the market will react as in the NASDAQ futures will react depending on what is actually reported. So if you just get this video to over 1500 likes, I'll host that free live session if not I Totally understand.
You probably want to enjoy your day off from the market but just wanted to ask and see what you guys thought. so let me know down in the comments section and or just get this video to over 1500 likes but without further. Ado Let's go ahead and jump right into it. What is the unemployment rate and or the expectation? So our current unemployment rate the last one was reported on March 10th, 2023.
we're currently sitting at a 3.6 unemployment and the previous was 3.4 percent. so we did go up a little bit, but not very much. This unemployment rate is very very low, right? What is the Market's expectation for tomorrow, right? So April 7th which is tomorrow gets it gets reported. We have a forecast of 3.6 percent and that's on Investing.com and as well as the unemployment rate on Finviz is also 3.6.
So it looks like for tomorrow, not only non-farm payrolls and private payrolls are getting reported, but as well as the unemployment rate should be getting reported. And this is all at 8, 30 a.m or one hour before the Market opens. So let's go ahead and talk about what this would mean right? If the unemployment rate based off of what has happened in the past before, comes in lower than expected meaning that unemployment is actually going down once again, this supports a stronger than expected labor market. If the unemployment rate comes in hotter than expected meaning higher than 3.6 percent, which is the current Market's expectation for tomorrow, then that means that we have a worse labor market than what was expected.
Well, what did what will determine if the market goes up or down right? Well, based off of what has happened in the past before, the Federal Reserve has wanted to see the economy and the labor market slow down. So normally what would happen is when these unemployment reports would get released and the unemployment rate would be disclosed. If the unemployment rate actually came in higher than expected meaning a higher unemployment rate. It's a very weird way to think the market would actually react in a positive way because it's actually supporting the case that the market is slowing down and that the Federal Reserve can possibly begin to Pivot right, slow down with interest rate hikes and maybe maybe actually begin to, you know, be able to provide interest rate cuts and that's what's currently expected. Now, although it has not been announced right now, the market is expecting that the Federal Reserve by the end of 2023 is going to be cutting interest rates by 1.25 at least that's what some analysts are saying. It's too early to tell, but again, a lot of the fear that is coming from more interest rate hikes is we already saw what happened with smaller Banks such as Silicon Valley. Now what happened if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates with its fight against inflation and then other and or larger Banks begin to fail, right? That can put us in some really hot water. So again, for tomorrow, one hour before the Market opens, it's probably the most significant report and again, that is the unemployment rate that's going to be disclosed.
We talked about the expectation and as well as the non-farm payrolls and the non-farm private payrolls are all getting released one hour before the Market opens. I Just wanted to make sure that you were aware of this. so if you do begin to see for some of you that actually trade Futures If you begin to see the market go a little bit wild, then again, you at least will have a better understanding of what is causing some of the spine and or some of this cell in pressure. So we can see right now the NASDAQ Market is teeter-tottering above the 1000 I'm sorry 13 150 support.
And if we take a little bit of a step back we can see that today we bounced off of 13 000. Now of course if the report tomorrow comes in hotter than expected, then this could possibly mean that again, the market can come back to retest 13 000 and potentially breaking below that support level and causing more selling pressure. But just like that, it could also mean that if it comes in better than expected, we can actually begin to see the NASDAQ Market beginning to recover, which is great for overall bull markets, right? So as of right now it's still definitely too early to tell. And like we always say, our job is not to predict the future, our job is simply to prepare for it.
and one of the best ways to prepare is just to be aware of what is actually being reported. And if you do not want to partake in that type of volatility, then make sure that you either reduce your position size and or stay cash when that report gets released so you do not have to partake in that volatility and you can wait for the market to react and then choose to re-enter when Direction becomes a little bit more clear. If you have any questions about what we talked about today, feel free to direct message me via our free Discord which is the first link in the description down below or feel free to message me via Instagram I am verified on Instagram and that was before they started selling the check marks and that's the third link in the description down below. I Really do appreciate you guys time. Friendly reminder: I Do Trade Live every morning with one team and one team only and all of our new members are automatically getting entered for our GTR giveaway or 50 000 cash. And if you want to learn more about and how you can enter, please just take two minutes. Click that second link down below. learn more about our Lpp team and what it would be like to be able to watch me trade live every single day.
I Appreciate your time like always. let's make sure that we're in the year. On a green note, take it easy team.
I always look forward to your next update. The market cycle still hasn't met its balance, we keep going round in circles while waiting for that huge blow out on a huge support but in the meantime we could always ignore the market ups and downs and stay fully invested. Big thanks to Andrew Martins for helping me earn over 11btc by implementing his method and following his guide.
"If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough." *Albert Einstein
Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroad deciding if to liquidate my $138k stock portfolio. What’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
The numbers are rigged people to protect the market.
Can ya'll please give me a heads-up on the March unemployment numbers: what are the market's expectations?
The futures market is closed.
Thanks Ricky !happy Easter!
where can I monitor the percentage (the figure) that will come out so I can open a transaction?
Market is closed Friday
The failure of SVB and everything happening has left the markets in shreds, I'm at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate 200k stock portfolio currently down by 10%, it's uneasy for me to not panic after my recent awful divorce. I just need creative ideas to afford my retirement.
The market probably rally Monday. Tuesday will probably be sideways and form a peak. By the end of next week, the market will probably start selling off. Just my probability and thoughts.
lets make money even during holiday
The rules changed with the bank bailouts. The feds are trying to save face and pretend like they are earning their own pay checks.
the only thing this thing is doing is go up…
Ricky, what’s your opinion on FED NOW coming in July and what could possibly happen with the dollar with trading ?
Can we also watch if the gold and silver index moves with the news, and possibly the VIX.
I work with PapayaHUB. In just 5 months, I made a profit of +150%.
I've only seen the best interest rates from investments in the webcam industry, like PapayaHub, for example.
Do you seriously believe that every investment platform offers the same level of protection as Papayahub?! They have some serious standards! Just give papayahub a try.
Great breakdowns as always Ricky! I’m really considering joining LPP
Amazing videos and thank you for breaking it down!! Inspite of the economic and financial instability, The the best thing to do with your money is to invest it rightly because money left for saving always end up used with no returns
Yes 🙌
people who short these weeks bound to burn
We are rallying back to 12400
So it's gonna be released on a day the markets closed thank god
Host the live!
Unemployment is going up and inflation is going down in these reports but the bottom is not in
unemployment rate is gonna come higher. I predict 3.8/3.9
If that happens we rally hard