All right, we are 30 seconds away from jobs. Data change in non-farm payroll is expected to be 230 000 down from the prior of 300 and 11 000. we are looking for private payrolls to come in at 218 prior 265. most important, average hourly earnings.

Expecting it to come in at 0.3 Uh, and here we go. Okay, we got 236. A little above expectations. Uh, we've got 0.3 for the month over month.

average hourly earnings average year over year earnings 4.2 Uh so I would say 6 000 more jobs than expected. On the Uh, the headline read that actually dropped the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 The uh, this is good. The labor force participation rate jumped up to 62.5 All right.

So this is. uh, this is not a bad report. It's not a fantastic report I'd say it's a moderate report, which is actually kind of potentially good. What you want right now? Uh, because you don't want a horrible report suggesting we're about to go into the hell of 2008, right? We've already got s P uh Pmis and ISM Pmis that came in yesterday Slightly recessionary and people are starting to get fearful that oh what if we're walking into a recession? We need to be careful here.

so we have to be careful what we wish for. because if we keep wishing for a recession then maybe exactly that's or weak numbers then maybe that's exactly what we're going to get. now. the stock market is closed today, so measuring the response will be a little interesting though.

I Think we do have Futures open. so what? What is interesting here is this is a this is a stable report. However, it does show that decelerating. Trend Again, we were at 311 last month.

Now we're down at 236. the fact that surveyors were within 6 000 jobs is actually pretty impressive given that, uh, usually they're much more wrong. The average hourly earnings coming in at 0.3 as expected, is fantastic. That's a sign that we are stable.

Uh, there is no wage price spiral. I've been pounding the table on about no wage price spiral for about six months though now. So I I Think this is just sort of reiterating that headline inflation for wage data at 4.2 So that's still Healthy Growth for wages. But by no means is it a sign that we are having this sort of runaway inflation.

which is uh, which is a good sign. We do not want to see runaway inflation. Let's now go ahead and look at the actual report itself. So we've got the actual report right here and let's see what we're looking at.

So this is at the employment situation. Keep in mind this video is brought to you by short form. Go to Meet Kevin.com Short form to get super powered book summaries at short form. It's very, very cool.

Check them out at Meet Kevin.com I'm sorry short form.com Meet Kevin Total non-farm payroll 236 in March Unemployment rate Little change that is down that 3.5 both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons at 5.8 million changed little in March Little net movement since early 2022 among the major worker groups Hispanic Unemployment decreased to 4.6 percent, essentially offsetting an increase in the prior month. The unemployment rate for adult men was three Four adult women 3-1 teenagers Nine Eight women, three, two Blacks Five Asian Two eight You've got Uh. permanent job losses did increase by 172 to 1.6 million in March The number of re-entrants in the labor force declined by 182 000 to 1.7 a million. So fewer Uh re-entrants into the labor force.

That's potentially a sign that you're seeing. The fewer new hiring re-entrants are persons who previously worked but were not in the labor force prior to the beginning their job short search. The number of long-term unemployed. those jobless for 27 weeks or more was a little changed at 1.1 million.

Okay, so little change in the long term unemployed. So despite all of those massive layoffs were saying, not seeing a large take up here in the long-term unemployed. But then again, the the job losses that we've been seeing have really only just started occurring. so it might be too early to see a change in the long-term figure here.

Okay, we've got. Labor Force participation rate continue to Trend up. This is good. This is a sign that more people are potentially coming off uh, retirement or off of uh unemployment checks.

uh, right? or welfare. And they're basically re-entering the labor force. Which is good. Although there are work requirements for some of these jobs, Covid has really made it easy to not work.

The employment population ratio edged up a little bit. Okay, fine. The number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons was essentially unchanged. So part-time unchanged.

I'm really looking for differences here. Inflection points: The number of persons not in the labor force Who currently want a job little change at 4.9 million? Fine. Uh, we're also going to get Wall Street's reaction here in just a moment to these numbers. again.

so far I'd say these numbers are pretty benign. They're not a sign that we're in a recession, and they are reiterating no wage price spiral. I Personally actually think that is the best case scenario that you could wish for. You don't want something to terribly off expectations, because then it also casts more doubt on on economists ability to do their job, which people already have little doubt in.

anyway. You just don't need to amplify that even before 1.3 million here for those marginally attached to the labor force. Also, little changed. the number of marginally attached to the labor force uh, or discouraged workers basically.

um, little change 351. supplemental data. So the non-farm payroll increased 236 compared to the average monthly gain of 334 over the prior six months. So that gives you a sign of some weakness.

and Trend in March employment continued to Trend up in Leisure and Hospitality government professional and business services and Healthcare we'll look at the tables in just a moment. Look at that. Leisure and Hospitality hotels Resorts uh, skiing, restaurants? whatever. Up 72 000 jobs in March that's lower than the average of 95 000 over the prior six months.

so you are starting to get a little bit of weakness. Uh, In in this Finally, a little bit of maybe turning over a little bit of softening in the job status, but not depressive numbers of jobs data. That's good employment. and Leisure Hospitality is still below its pre-pandemic Levels by 368 000 And remember, that's below levels that's not below Trend That's important.

Think about that when they say that. and I Think this is a very important perspective. and my goal on this channel is always to teach perspectives. That's why I have entire courses on building your wealth for teaching perspectives.

So when when we have uh jobs data that uh, that shows Oh yay, we have jobs growth and then we have this big decline in jobs data. Oh, I Accidentally unplugged that and then all of a sudden we get back to slightly below the level where we were right. So we're about negative 300. What was that? 80 000 jobs or something like that? Well, that's that.

Might be almost back to 2019 levels. but what it's not is back to Trend levels. See, at Trend levels, you're probably down about double that. You probably still have another 800 1000 jobs to go.

Last month, we were down still about nine hundred thousand jobs below trend for leisure and Hospitality Uh, Health Care is just back to 2019 levels. Uh and uh, it also below Trend. So okay, let's keep going here. Government employment increased 47 000.

So the government is employing I'm actually surprised that you have Labor growth over here in Professional Business Services up 39 000. That, uh, the trend here is about thirty four thousand. so slightly above Trend over here in Professional Business Services. Slightly surprised by that.

Daniel Dickinson here says he's been laid off twice in Tech once in 2008 and once in 2020. Yikes. Uh, sorry to hear that it's always tough. Layoffs suck.

Healthcare added 34 000 jobs lower than the trend of 80 or uh, fifty four thousand. Social Services continue to Trend up seventeen thousand in March in March Employment and transportation warehousing changed little. Uh, ten thousand over. You could have lot of tension over here in warehousing.

Oh, that's actually very interesting. Wait a second. Warehousing and storage lost jobs? Wait a second. That's actually a really big deal because wow.

Remember what we read yesterday yesterday? We started reading about this and that was that as the economy weakens, I'll give you the quick synopsis on this: the state of Freight as the economy weakens. What happens is more companies leave their products sitting in warehouses and now warehouses are full. We made this analogy yesterday of the farmer basically filling up their Silo and they could basically have a supply glut a lot of supply and not put that on the market because they're filling up their Silo But now the silos are full and the price is for new air housing are going up. and so what happens with a lag? Well what happens with a lag is you get a dump in prices.

People start dumping their their supply because they don't want to store it anymore. Well what did this jobs report just do related to that? Well, this jobs report just told me this warehouse and Storages lost jobs. That actually reiterates the idea that there is a lag in storage. Uh uh, a deflation basically and product deflation.

Let me let me simplify that here. So if I write this down here. I'm going to say if let's set some conditions. if uh, we have Supply Rising then you'd assume warehousing would also become more expensive and more would be hired in warehousing, right? Let's make that a little smaller.

Here There we go. That is what you would assume. You always have to be careful with assumptions because you know what assumptions do right. They make an asset of you and me.

Uh, anyway. so so this is interesting because if we have more Supply then there's more warehousing demand at first. But but at some point you face an inflection and the inflection is where people basically protest and say, you know what, instead of storing even more, I'll just dump at lower prices. Why is it when I touch this? It's something so sensitive.

There we go. you have this dump at lower prices. Now that's actually very interesting because it suggests that uh, we could be seeing more price reductions sooner than we expect. What did we just get at Tesla We just got two in a row price reductions on the model S and X.

Now I personally take no responsibility for that, but I will continue to bag on the model S and X I Do not think they are worth it. Am I really nervous about that? They've dropped prices on those twice. No, not at all. They don't really move the candle.

uh, compared to the model 3 and Y sales. Uh, but it's a sign that this is what businesses do as inventory piles up, you cut prices that's totally normal. And seeing now, a softening in uh in in warehousing that is actually just what we want to see, That's exactly what we want to see. Uh, to suggest that deflationary prices uh are coming.

So I'm excited about that. Okay, uh, let's continue on here. So warehousing. a little change? uh, or well, slightly negative.

they're calling it level changed Uh, But again, it's also not skyrocketing because people aren't building new warehouses, employment, and Retail Train A trade has little change. It's negative. Fifteen thousand job losses Building Material Garden Equipment minus nine thousand Furniture Home Furnishings Down nine thousand partially offset by job gains in department stores plus fifteen thousand retail trade employment Little changed over the year. Employment showed little change over in in over the month.

In other Industries including mining, gas extraction, manufacturing, wholesale, and otherwise us. Here's that average hourly earnings point: Three percent. That's very good. Average work week for all employees edged down: Uh, this is.

It's good that we're not seeing a massive plummet in this, but I will say this: average hourly work week. This has been teetering for months now. It's been up and then down. It's been up and then down.

So I Really don't see it as that big of a deal to continue to look at the average hourly early hours week average hours worked in a week. Don't see that as that big of a deal. uh, bobbing up and down a tenth year there. That could honestly just be survey based.

So uh, let's see if we can get into some of the tables and see what we have for these. Uh, and if we can get a little bit more granular into the data I Do think overall this is an optimistic report. Let me see if there what how the Bond market is reacting to this. So if we jump into the Bond market we're looking at let's see here.

Okay, we've got uh Dow futures basically the stock market's flat Dow futures up about a tenth of a percent Nasdaq futures up 0.9 uh sorry, uh s p Futures at 0.9 0.09 you've got Nasdaq futures basically flat at uh 0.04 Now uh, you might be wondering. wait a minute Kevin How are Futures up when the stock market is closed? Well folks, the stock market might be closed, but that doesn't mean future Traders or weenie babies who take every day off that they want I'm just kidding I don't want to offend the stock market people I actually really like the stock market folks and I really don't do anything with Futures So what am I doing here I'm like betraying my side. supposed to enjoy your day off and your time with family or something I Don't know. Go enjoy Easter or whatever it is you celebrate I Don't know what else happens in Easter Passover there's other stuff anyway.

Okay, so uh, that's the um and I appreciate you being here. Either way, okay, that's the uh Bond Okay, wait, sorry, that's the stock market. Let's look at bonds. So bonds actually Rising slightly.

So you've got the 10-year popping up to about 3.355 Now that's actually a good sign that we're sitting closer to stability rather than a recessionary impact, which that's a very good. uh. so I like to see that we do not want recessionary. Now let me see.

five-year break evens have modified at all. And then we'll get into some of the tables here. So five year break even? All right. Five year break Evens so far are, uh, sitting roughly stable.

Although they may give me an update here within the next two minutes here. So so far, those stable. But let's go ahead and look at some of the charts that we have. Shelby So in order to do this, we are going to click a few buttons here.

There we go button. Number one, Button Number two. Fantastic. Fantastic.

All right. So this gives us the unemployment rate. Let's go through some of these others here. Let's look at the household survey as well, just to compare.

Actually, that would be a good idea. Let's jump over here. Let's look at what the household report is saying today. So, household data.

Uh, let's see the household I'm sure they don't show us the actual number. where is the number in the household? That? Okay, Also, go to the table table Alpha for that. Okay, no problem. I will do that standby.

Let's get back in over here then. All right. So let's see here. They don't break it up as easily as you'd think here to get the difference between the household and the payroll survey.

But I will grab it I Want you to keep in mind the difference between the two? The Uh Household survey is. uh, when when they call actual individuals, right? they call individual people and they say hey, are you uh employed right now and if you have multiple jobs, you're discounted as one person whereas the payroll survey calls businesses which does create a potential for double counting. uh, individuals. And if you double count individuals, then you might have a little bit of a misleading result.

So uh, it looks like the household survey moved. Wow, That's actually a pretty large move here. The household survey went up 577 000. So 577 000 move in the household survey compared to a 236 000 job in the job move in the payroll setup.

This is likely because the household survey has been very volatile and trying to play catch-up to the actual payrolls. uh, uh survey. So I don't necessarily see that as bad, but is substantially higher than the 177 we had for households last time. Uh, and then a little lower than well, actually a bit lower than the 894 we had in January for the households.

So I think you are seeing some of that households catch up. Oh, that's not very entertaining. There we go. Let's get back to some charts over here.

So silly, silly. HDMI Cables All right, let's keep going here. So let's look at this so we could take a look at some charts I Want to see, particularly if there are any interesting ones here. This will give you the average hours worked for different groups here I'd Love to see if we can get a little granular in this.

This is manufacturing so we could see manufacturing hours worked declining off of those Peaks that we saw in 2021. Uh, that's good durable goods. nice. decline there as well.

Those are going to be like appliances uh, or other equipment. Let's try computer and electronic manufacturing also rotating down. Let's go with apparel apparel. Actually up.

Look at that apparel manufacturing at a high right now. Shout out to those Nike and Lulu folks, paper manufacturing, do we really care? I Mean we're not printing money anymore, so that number's going down. Let's go with Machinery Manufacturing down on Machinery manufacturing. How about Appliance and electronic equipment also rotating down and then Furniture over here.

let's see furniture and make it a little challenging to use this chart. There's Furniture seems roughly stable, all right. and the other particular employment. Uh, let's try employment by industry.

Let's take a look at this chart. All right. So let's jump into Construction Okay, and let's take away the totals. There we go.

look at that construction. Nice rise here. Been very consistent. Maybe just topping out there on the right.

Maybe a little bit of a topping out Leisure and Hospitality just so you can see the trend. that is a terrible color. also nice. Trend Directly up.

How about professional and business services? Yeah, a little bit of a lower slower inflection inflection point there, so a little bit of a Slowdown Financial activities. This is where you're really seeing the uh, a little bit of the Slowdown You're actually getting that negative inflection point. All right, let's get it. Information Technology Information Technology Also seeing that inflection, to the downside, let's get uh hmm, how about just government in general? That's not too useful? Let's take a look here and not very useful at all.

Okay, Manufacturing and let's get rid of government and financial activities and just look at Manufacturing Okay, we can't let's try again. if we do this. there we go. There's your manufacturing also hitting sort of a resistance level there if you will on manufacturing, it doesn't seem like yeah.

construction is hitting that level though. Is it Yeah, barely. I Mean maybe just beginning. but I Think the charts are somewhat useful in taking a little bit of a glance at what's happening.

So let's take a look at some of the Q and A that we have I Want to see what y'all are thinking here. uh Tesla nominates former taxi JB strawberry isn't he also on um over at Redwood material I think so. So let's see here. while not our favorite scenario, could there be a silver lining with stagflation? I Actually think this is potentially a good scenario that this is a I would not call this an unfavorable scenario I'm optimistic about this.

This is a an At an At Expectations read I mean look at what we have no wage price spiral as we've been reiterating and optimism around maybe the economy isn't doing that horribly. I Think as as investors, a lot of folks right now are of the mindset that we are likely to be looking at a a terrible economy and another 2008, that's That's certainly a concern that a lot of folks have, and we'll go ahead and look at some other reports as well. But um, yeah, I'm not that pessimistic. Maybe.

.