Greetings and Welcome to Meet Kevin Report number 76. it's always exciting to be here. I actually I really enjoy doing these mostly. you know a lot of people ask me they're like, why why would you wake up so early and uh, and stream every day And obviously I have sometimes unpredictable start times and the reason for that is it.

It feels so wonderful to be productive first thing in the morning because the rest of the day it doesn't have to go perfectly anymore then and life never does. Anytime you're relying on uh, traffic, uh, other people, uh, appointments. Real estate for example is is notorious for for this. Anytime you're relying uh on on working with with other people, what you have to do in business and life, things are always going to be two steps forward.

One step back. and even when you're working for yourself, it's two steps forward. One step back. But the beautiful thing is, if you can get a productive morning in that you are mostly in control of, oh man, the rest of the day feels great.

So I'm generally very excited to be here. This is the 76th the Meet Kevin report and a row which is pretty cool. We have not missed a day yet and so we'll We'll keep it up. So I'm pretty excited as well because we've got quite a bit to cover today so we'll see how much of it we can get through.

But uh, yeah, pretty pretty happy. Let's see, somebody says reflection in the lens showed right? Oh oh oh, you're you're talking about the thumbnail picture. That's awesome. Um, so, uh, awesome.

Okay, well let's get started here. Advanced Pro LLC Thank you so much for the five dollars. Uh, so the first thing that I want to talk about, let's see, we've got what are our topics Today Let's do a quick preview. so we're going to talk about what's going on with, uh, briefly with Judge Clarence Thompson Pretty wild.

Uh, we'll look take another look at some bear pieces on uh, recession, but we'll also include China on this. We will look at the Irs's uh plan for the inflation reduction act. We'll look at a little bit of that on California Fed and we'll see if we can get to Crypto. Uh, towards the end, we've got some pretty cool Crypto things to touch on.

All right. So oh, somebody writes here I've been here with you every morning. that's amazing. Well thank you so much for being here.

All right. So uh, that'll be our intro and then let's get to Judge Clarence Uh, Thomas Uh, because I think I've got some insights into this. Uh, which could be uh, it could be fun to talk about. So uh, let's do that and then we'll get into some more of the market goodies.

All right. So without further Ado here we go. Well, it's official one of our Supreme Court Justices which definitely makes you scratch your head as to how many others of them are doing. This has just had a massive a pro-republica piece I pulled out on them alleging a massive ethics violations basically being bought out by Republican conservative with private jet trips and the lavish private Chef vacations uh, donations, political donations to the Supreme Court Justices uh spouse.

You've even got uh, the belief that this massive Republican donor potentially helped orchestrate the Supreme Court's shift uh, from uh, where it has been to a more the right as we've seen over the last few few years here with with more right-leaning cases uh, favoring uh, those who lean rights such as for example, with the Uh reversal of Roe V Wade something that was previously deemed unimpenetrable uh, or impenetrable I Should say let's get the word right now. Obviously, this video is not designed to be political. This isn't supposed to be left versus right. it's supposed to be sort of an analysis into wow, are our Supreme Court Justices potentially not politically neutral despite this lifetime tenure that they get, which is supposed to enable them to be politically neutral.

And uh, I mean the last thing I really feel like we need right now is more Jade when it comes to politics, but unfortunately, this was just too mind-blowing not to talk about. So let's take a look at the pro Republica piece and uh, let's add some commentary on it. I Do keep in mind this video is brought to you by my courses on building your wealth. Link down below.

We've got a coupon code expiring on CPI day which is April 12th and the prices will be going up after that. So let's take a look at this piece. So for over 20 years, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas has been treated to luxury vacations by billionaire and Republican donor Harlan Crowe Now what's interesting is how Garland Crowe is a Real Estate Mogul His father was actually once deemed the largest landlord in the country I believe it was 1971 that Harlan Crowe and The Crow Uh company the organization its privately held company. The Crow Company was deemed the largest landlord in the country with over a billion dollars in Assets in 1971.

Uh, currently it sits somewhere around 18 billion dollars in assets and the Sun Mr Harlan who's in his 70s now? he runs the real estate fund now. I Think that's very interesting because obviously I have a massive real estate background. not only my financial advisor licensed financial advisor, but I'm also a real estate broker and I got my start in real estate so let's take a look at this. so This Starts Here By talking about how uh, Clarence Thomas boarded a large private jet headed to Indonesia him and his wife were going on vacation nine days to island hopping on a super yacht.

If uh, Thomas had chartered the plane and the 162 yacht himself, the total cost of the trip would have exceeded it five hundred thousand dollars. Fortunately for him, that wasn't necessary because he went on a trip with a real estate magnet. Republican Mega Donor Harlan Crowe who owned the jet and the yacht too? Now do keep in mind when you own a a plane, it is a lot cheaper to operate than if you. Charter The plane chartering is very expensive chartering, so sometimes the numbers that you're going to see here I Want to just give you a personal insight into this? Some of the numbers that you're going to see here I think are relatively uh, dare I say uh, inflated but it, we're still going to be talking about the meaning behind all this.

Think about. for example, uh, they they give an example later in the story about how a flight was taken I believe it was from Connecticut yeah Dallas to Connecticut here. look at this. Thomas even used the plane for a three-hour trip on Feb 11, 2016.

the plane flew from Dallas to New Haven uh with a pit stop before flying back later that afternoon. Had that plane been chartered, it could have cost around seventy thousand dollars. Realistically, the actual marginal cost of operating that plane in my opinion, would probably have been closer to to if it's already an own plane. Two to three thousand dollars per hour would have been the marginal cost of that plane.

So you're probably looking much closer to like four to maybe ten thousand dollars. So some of the pieces of the article will be a little exaggerated because they are using Charter prices rather than normal prices. Uh, owning a jet I know that. Anyway, Okay, so uh, now one of the things I wrote down I was doing some other research uh and I think they actually mentioned in this story too Harlan frequently took the position he's that Republican donor That quote I don't disclose what I don't have to and it's one of the reasons he likes being a private company.

I Personally find that's pretty common. A lot of people who don't really like disclosing things and they kind of want to do things their way. They keep their companies private, they don't want the SEC in their life, they don't want regulation in their life, and to some extent it's like yeah, why would you want want to invite more Regulators in but that's sometimes where you can also get sus things where all of a sudden now you've essentially got a republican Mega donor potentially who's got a Supreme Court Justice in their back pocket? Could you imagine having the Supreme Court Justice uh in your back pocket to some extent. But anyway, they give some examples here about are they vacation they've gone to all male retreats in California they've gone to uh, the uh that's called The Bohemian Grove they've gone to ranches in Texas Indonesia I think Hawaii was mentioned over here and basically the Supreme Court Justice said hey, look I I never asked for any of it and because I never asked for any of it.

uh I don't think I have to disclose all of these Mega gifts that I've gotten even though technically uh, ethics. uh, law attorneys say any kind of donation basically over fifty dollars requires disclosure I mean here's a line right here. Ethics experts said the law clearly requires disclosure for private jet flight and Thomas appears to have violated it. Now he's been a Supreme Court Justice since the 90s.

My guess is if if this continues to get media attention, there's a chance he could be quote unquote, forced into retirement. uh, hate to say it, but this is it's it's not a good look and you'll see how this evolves, especially when we get into what his wife's position is I think it'll blow your mind and you're going to want to get life insurance in as little as five minutes. hashtag sponsored anyway. Uh, okay, so it was an it was a question of not wanting to use the office for anything other than it was intended.

Uh, these are other people, other ethics attorneys who basically say hey, like look when or even other judges retired judges. They say look when we make reservations places we don't want to use our title like Judge Pafrath or whatever. We don't want to do that because we don't want to be unjustly potentially enriched now of course Thomas makes the argument that well, Harlan's just my rich friend. Okay, so now we have to kind of evaluate if somebody's your Rich friend.

Are you supposed to say no to all of their generous vacations and super yacht trips and hotels and private Chef food or whatever else or should you be reimbursing? maybe your fair share? or just at the very least, disclosing it. Now many people here would argue that disclosure would be the best opportunity. Look, if you're going to get these gifts, just disclose it. The problem is the Justice probably is thinking, well, if I disclose gifts I didn't ask for, then people are going to think I'm biased.

But now people, you basically hit the nail in the coffin. Now people definitely think you're biased because not only are you not disclosing it, but you're arguing that you don't need to disclose lavish vacations and gifts from your quote-unquote friend. Uh, take a look at this. These gifts include.

Look at this Soon after Crow met Thomas Three decades ago, he began lavishing the Justice with gifts including a 19 000 Bible folks of nineteen thousand dollars for a Bible Are you kidding me? They have one of these for free in every single hotel room. but apparently this Bible belonged to Frederick Douglass Recently Crow gave Thomas A Portrait of the Justice and his wife uh, the crow the crow Foundation then also gave a hundred and five thousand dollars to Yale Law school. That's where Thomas went to school and uh uh, then we've got, you know. other trips over here.

One of the trips included motorboats and a giant inflatable rubber duck. Um I Don't even want to know what artificial intelligence would draw up if we threw into an AI generator? Show me Clarence Thompson with a giant inflatable rubber duck and motorboats. Actually, you know what? I think we have to do it I think we have to do it. Hold on.

Uh so I have an AI generator here. I'm gonna just type it in really quick. Uh, let's do. And then I want to tell you about the wife because the wife is a really interesting piece.

So in my let's do Clarence uh Thomas Supreme Court Justice with a giant inflatable rubber duck and motor boats. All right, we'll give that a few minutes to show up, but that's gonna be ridiculous so stand by for that. All right, let's go back over here. So um, okay, let's keep going I Really want to get to the wife part and some of the judicial action part.

so let's keep going here. Uh okay. so uh, didn't disclose. Okay, we talked about that.

So uh yeah here they talk about lifetime tenures for judges or designed to keep people from being politically biased. Uh, okay. now here look at this: Crow Met Thomas after he became a justice. so interestingly, they happened to become quote genuine friends after Mr Thomas became a Supreme Court Justice Of course they did.

Anyway, the pair oddward have become genuine friends according to people who know both Uh men. especially since they're going to Men's Clubs I mean I Guess that's not terribly unnormal, but abnormal for for wealthier people. But anyway, over the years, some details of Crow's relationship with the Thomases have emerged. In 2011, the Times reported that gross generosity toward the Justice Uh had been growing.

during. at the same time, That year, Political revealed that Crow had given half a million dollars five hundred thousand dollars to a tea party group. So the Republican donor gave 500 Grand to a tea party group. Listen to this founded by the Supreme Court Justices wife Janie Thomas Jenny Thomas By the way, she was a real a an election fraud proponent suggesting that Donald Trump substantially lost the election because of election fraud I think I actually wrote down a quote over here.

Uh, that? Yeah, yeah, look at this. Thomas has been a prominent backer of Trump's lies that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him. That was a quote from the Guardian. Uh, so I Want to make that clear? this was a quote from the Guardian and so was the other one.

Uh, on the 24th of November 2020 Thomas Rhodes I Can't see Americans swallowing up the obvious fraud, just going with one more thing with no freaking consequences. The whole coup and now this. uh. She also then says her husband is stubborn and that they don't talk politics.

uh, but uh, the fact that, uh, that they allege they don't talk politics together seems a little far-fetched. I mean what? what kind of spousal relationship? uh, doesn't a chat together about their job? That seems a little weird. Of course. Thomas makes the argument that oh no, it's boring to talk about politics.

so I don't talk about politics with my wife I'm like a lot of this just seems ludicrous. Like ludicrous, hiding from disclosures and trying to run through legal loopholes here. But anyway, apparently that tea party group that was founded by the Supreme Court Justices wife paid her a 120 000 salary and was funded by this guy. and uh, and and now we're seeing these lavish vacations and private jet trips and Yacht super yacht trips and everything.

uh with without any disclosure. especially since Thomas has been ruling on cases directly involving the real estate industry I Hate to say it here, but I I think the corruption is really obvious here as and I think this was the nail in the coffin for corruption. Okay, listen to this. I I Like this is like the most ludicrous thing I've ever heard.

Listen to this. I don't have a problem with going to Europe but I prefer the United States and I prefer seeing regular parts of the United States Thomas said in a recent interview for a documentary about his life which Crow helped finance. Okay, so so Crow the real estate billionaire guy helped finance this documentary about the Supreme Court Justice and apparently in the interview he says the following quote: I prefer the RV parks I prefer the Walmart parking lots to beaches and things like that. There's something normal to me about it I come from regular stock I prefer that I prefer being around that Okay, let me just pause for a moment and let me just ask.

Let's let me just pull the audience. Okay, so I'm going to run a poll and I want to see what your answers are. Do you prefer private jet and super yacht victims or Walmart parking lots? Okay, jet vacations Walmart parking lot and and I'm very curious to see what the results of this poll are because. let's just say, all right, while that poll runs, let's go ahead and look at what the uh oh my God look at this.

Look at this. Look at this hold on. This is hilarious. So this is the artificial intelligence generated image of Clarence Thompson or Thomas It don't even look like rubber ducks Robert ducks and motorboats? You ready for this? Hold on? this is this is priceless.

Oh my. Lord I mean his face is like perfect in all of these images too because he looks like deer in the headlights like uh, you got me uh, I just step bro I'm stuck. Help me. Ah oh my gosh, this is ludicrous.

Okay, let's keep going here. So and then I'm gonna review the results of the poll in just a moment. Uh, Crow's guests are served meals prepared by private chefs, a painting of the two men at the resort sitting Outdoors smoking cigars along with alongside conservative political operatives. Uh, then you've got uh, what do we have over here frequent vacations? Oh, here we go and then listen to this.

During one trip in July 2017, Thomas's fellow guests included Executives at Verizon and a Pricewaterhousecoopers an auditor both major Republican donors and leaders of the American Enterprise Institute a pro-business conservative think tank. Uh, and then a painting of Thomas at Top Ridge shows him in conversation with Leonardo Leo the Federalist Society leader regarded as an architect of the Supreme Court's recent turn to the right. So and then of course the argument is nah, these are just Gatherings of friends. Uh, so yeah, I mean I think this is pretty obvious here.

Now it's it's worth looking at uh, his, some of his cases and how these could be uh, how how he could sort of interpret uh or affect law. Obviously, if you have more of a Republican or tilt and you're hanging out with Republican Executives First of all, think about it from the POV of if you're Crow the rich billionaire, the real estate billionaire, how easy it is to call up your CEO friends and go hey man, come on this trip, I'm gonna have a Supreme Court Justice with us. Talk to him about whatever you want. nudge nudge, wink wink it like it's kind of obvious, blatantly obvious that there's going to be some potential for uh nudging by Executives to rule in cases a certain way.

It's very difficult to remove biases that you potentially get brainwashed into through vacations and trips over Years And we're talking now Decades of this and of course Thomas's reply or Crow's reply Yeah, here's the I'm not required to disclose or I don't disclose what I'm not required to. But anyway, specifically talking about Thomas and his cases. So Thomas is he's a conservative. He's a big fan of originalism, but that originalism tilt that he's had has leaned further and further to the right now.

originalism is this idea that you interpret without new versions, uh, or new adaptations to what's in the Constitution. So for example, today, you're not going to take uh, social media, the internet, uh, the the. You know you're not going to look at implications of how we live our lives today to help you rule based on constitutional questions, you're just going to basically look strictly at the Constitution. So I'll give you some examples.

here. In an original style case was a second amendment case uh, DC versus Heller in 2008. this is where DC basically tried to ban all firearms, but the Supreme Court overruled that the DC is not able to ban that in homes. The Congress Also, here's a U.S First, Bond 2014 Congress was uh, basically overturned by the Supreme Court when Congress bans States from using chemical weapons now I Use this one specifically because it's kind of like why the hell would would a state ever have to use chemical weapons? But when you have a super conservative judge that leans right, obviously that's called leans right.

I Mean you are on the right If you're very conservative, uh and uh, and you have the belief of originalism. The originalist argument to overturn Congress's ability to say look, states are not allowed to use chemical weapons is you simply use you. You simply say the following: Anything not explicitly provided to the Federal government: as a power becomes the power of the state via the 10th Amendment Now that makes sense when the framers wrote the Constitution but does it make sense Today we didn't have chemical weapons back then. Of course they didn't put chemical weapons in the Constitution, but an originalist will say no, not in the Constitution.

Anyway, there's some other examples of originalism, but really, the question here is, is it reasonable for a judge not his friend gave him 100 off coupon code? Yeah, maybe. See, right now, the best you can get is 69 off a price guarantee going into the future. Lowest price possible. Coupon expires on the 12th and then prices will be going up and you can use buy now pay later to get in.

So thank you for reminding me of that. But anyway, let's look at the results of this poll right after I Just mentioned. You gotta ask yourself is is it potentially Is this potentially Corruption of the Supreme Court and the answer is here is yes. Likely this is likely Corruption of the Supreme Court I Hate to say it because I Try not to be jaded, but this is Jay ding.

It's scary. All right, let's look at the results of the poll: I Think y'all are screwing with me? Uh, we only got 66 saying they prefer private jet trips over probably more parking lots out of 306 votes right now about that. Yeah, all right I Don't believe any of you. but I appreciate, uh, the humor in it.

So we got a super majority at least to agree that private jet trips are better than Walmart parking lots. Come on man. Walmart Parking lots. You gotta be careful man.

people. people are trying to attack you with shopping carts all the time. Drive to Walmart Man people just come out of anywhere. All right, it's like somehow they come out of Mini Coopers with giant shopping carts ready to door ding.

Well, shopping cart ding your car. It's crazy. Uh, you know you gotta, you gotta use Walmart Plus you know we had a discussion of it. This is the kind of quality stuff you can get from course member live streams.

actually. Yeah, I Want to tell you a story about this course member livestream, but we do talk a lot about a lot about a lot of stuff in the course member live streams. But we did have a discussion about Walmart Plus because we've been doing fundamental analyzes and Walmart Plus is one of the ones we've been talking about. Uh, I Do quickly want to mention though, that if you join the Elite Hustlers course that's almost a private, tiny group.

Uh, exclusive course member live stream for the new course and the Elite. Hustlers So if you're looking for more exclusive access, the Elite Hustlers is a great option. so we've got very few people in the lives. those are once a week exclusive lives.

But if you join any of the courses, you get access to the uh every day. the market is open live stream so those are great. So it's a little bit of a larger group but but we still get a lot of Q A done. But anyway, one of the things we were talking about was Walmart plus and uh, how was Walmart Plus? Quite frankly, you should just use Walmart Plus and get your stuff delivered because a it's included in the price I Mean, yeah, you're going to add a little bit of a tip, but the time you save a makes up for it.

and B the fact that you're not going to potentially be subject to impulse purchases that you might in the store I mean I Suppose you can impulse buy online, but it could be it could be a good thing. Uh, anyway. so uh Walmart equals the Wild West uh Walmart Lot has been a friendly safe place over years of traveling. Don't get me wrong, I like Walmart I will go to Walmarts as well I've I Remember the first time I visited uh um Fort Collins We're like we need to find a fan because the dorm was staying and this was back when I was a police explorer.

We didn't have air conditioning so we're like we got to find fans Walmart was the only place the Walmart Supercenter that had fans. although I will say I'm pissed that they got rid of the garden centers at most of these places. I used to be a big green tummy and ever since I got rid of the garden centers at like Targets, the Super Targets and the super Walmarts I'm pissed Anyway, okay, that gives us a little bit of insight into judicial corruption and Walmart all right next door. Yes, Okay, all right, this one should be fun.

All right. let me get this one ready. Okay, we're gonna need these. We'll deal with that in a moment and we'll get this ready.

Yeah, we could use these two and one more standby starting by for the closing bell. Yes, Got it all right? Cool. All right. So this next one's going to be recessionary and then we'll talk a little bit about China They're actually a few pieces that I have about China that I want to hit on which I think is very interesting.

so recessionary. China they will relate which should be pretty entertaining. We got a little video to look at as well so a bit to cover and we'll also start with this. Excuse me All right.

All right, let's get into. Oh yeah well folks now we have to analyze three potential scenarios for recession. We're going to look at BNB Parabus and their piece on three scenarios for recession, but we're also going to in this talk about what China could be doing. is China going to help us out of a recession, what parts of China are going to potentially benefit and are there any potential stocks that could benefit from China's reopening in America A lot to talk about.

do. keep in mind this video is brought to you by and everything on my channel is brought to you by those programs on building your wealth linked down below. You can go to meet Kevin.com see anything about my ETF my affiliate links my courses, but most importantly, check out that 69 off coupon code for CPI day that has prices going up on April 12th I'd be excited to have you there! We have fundamental analysis live streams almost every day that the market is open. q A In all of the courses of Ir live streams, the exclusive group in the Elite Hustlers Most popular courses right now are the Zero to Millionaire Real Estate Investing course, the Uh Stocks and Psychology of Money group.

A lot of people are bundling those together and then some people even go as far as triple bundling with the Elite Hustlers A lot of people who just like real estate end up going for zero to Millionaire and then do it yourself property Management, and Rental Veneration Renovations program. But check out all of those linked down below, especially if you're looking to build your wealth and your income. Okay, so the first piece that we need to talk about is the three recessionary scenarios. So let's jump in over here to exactly these scenarios.

And we'll also go ahead. and to make things a little less disruptive, just throw up a banner to continue to remind you about that coupon code. All right here we go. So hike in May then go away it says BNP Parabas.

To gauge the degree of political substitution, we modeled a three scenarios based on a risk premium. Okay, in English three scenarios in terms of what can happen with a recession. All right. and the Fallout They by the way, see a terminal rate of 5.25 That terminal rate for them is down from 5.75 because of the banking crisis.

Now they also argue for 175 basis points of cuts in 2024.. So that is pretty aggressive tightening. And remember in my video that I titled the most Important Fed Video Ever I encourage you watch that. You definitely watch that if you haven't yet.

We talk about how the more aggressive the cuts, the better it could actually be for the stock market. Now that sounds intuitive but preemptive. Cuts Like Small little itty bitty cuts are usually ones that that still have a painful stock pivots ahead, whereas large Cuts can be a very good way to sort of turn the money printer back on and set sort of a floor under the recession. Now the composition of financial conditions and tightening are noteworthy.

They talk about credit spreads. This it's not so important to understand what they wrote there. It's more important to look at the Uh, the conclusions that they have. So the first conclusions that they make or tools that they use to get to their conclusions.

Because we're going to look at three different scenarios. The first is that they look at surveyed lending standards already at recession consistent levels. Now this is a little bit problematic because at first through the banking crisis, we didn't actually see a big spike in tightening lending conditions. but we have started to see those.

I drew these red horizontal lines to show you Baseline And basically when you go back to the.com era, that's when you see both the blue and the green above the red, both red lines. and then of course the 2008 recession, you see both above and then generally in between. You have this decline right? Loosening credit standards. This is when credit is more available.

This is when more people can take on loans, they spend more earnings per share, go up, growth goes up. And what? You don't have a recession? Uh, however, take And then of course we had briefly coveted over here. Very brief, But look at where we are again. here.

We are clearly tightening again in a recessionary level of both. uh, both types of or both measures of tightening standards and the availability of loans. This is obviously consistent with the inverted yield curve that we're probably leaning to a recession now. Hard Landing data points.

So a point or hard Landing or sorry, hello, it's too early to read hard lending data points point to further softening. And so what they show here actually is what happened during the banking crisis. First of all, you could see the trend of lending data. Look at the trend.

The trend of lending data has been straight down. Now Some people make the argument that maybe this right here. This plummet in lending data was transitory stress because of the bank crisis, and that transitoriness is proven by the rebound here. But the further argument that people make, which is quite interesting, is the following: They argue that what if we had this Spike on the right because people like Meet Kevin started making videos during the banking crisis.

Yes, I am patting myself on the back saying you should draw down your lines of credit because Banks might start freezing them if the spanking crisis continues. Remember what happened in 2008 In 2008 when the financial crisis hit and the financial crisis stayed Banks froze lines of credit That could hurt working capital at warehouses. It could hurt credit card borrowing ability, Your home equity line of credit, your rental property line of credit, your margin line of credit. All that stuff could get Frozen and then you don't have access to that Capital anymore.

So during a banking crisis, it's very common for people now to just draw down on their credit lines to minimize the risk that their credit lines get frozen. And so it's possible that you actually saw a spike in lending because of that. So if we take out that spike, it is possible that this downtrend in hard lending data does reiterate that we're walking right into a recession. So there are three scenarios given here.

One scenario is the increase. Uh is. basically there's the Improvement uh which basically says that all of the banking stress goes away after one quarter. Which would mean by June July the banking crisis is over.

In other words, the banking crisis was transitory. Now there is a potential that that could end up being true when we specifically look at treasury yields. and you want to pay attention to that. If you want to know if the banking crisis is going to worsen or not, look at treasury yields.

Right now, the 10-year is sitting at about 3.4 percent. When the banking Crisis began, that tenure was sitting at about 4.8 or I'm sorry 4. So you're looking at about 60 basis points higher. So when yields go down, the value of bonds goes up.

Which means bank balance sheets look more robust. Lower chance of a continuation of a banking crisis. However, obviously we are seeing a lot of people move money into money market funds. I Actually did a video about uh, where you might be able to go, uh, where you can get, uh, savings yields.

uh, whether that's through Vanguard or or others. but there are plenty of opportunities for you to get somewhere around a four percent yield right now. Uh, or more? I Mean you could look at hashtag not sponsored Sofi Robinhood Wealthfront money market funds from Schwab or Vanguard There's some, or even Fidelity. There's some phenomenal ways you can get four to five percent interest on your money.

and that's cash. real? It's fantastic, right? Anyway, So, uh, Banking Crisis So far: I I Think the odds or fall. Following that, we're going to continue to see a banking crisis. although I think everybody's still on alert as is reasonable Scenario number two is a stabilization.

that is we. everything basically stays a little nervous for about one year now. I Think it's very interesting how they put this because they basically say even in an improvement scenario, think about this. let's translate this: I Always like translating stuff to English because sometimes the way they write these things is complicated.

So uh, in in the good scenario, one quarter of pain. Okay, in the medium scenario, you have one year of pain. In the bad scenario Let's see, we haven't talked about the bad scenario. In the bad scenario, they assume that Equity prices could decline the equivalent to half of the move experienced during the global financial crisis.

Well, that's not fantastic because if we zoom out on the S P 500, we know that the S P 500 went from about 152 uh, down about 50 percent. So they're basically making the argument here that if the banking crisis gets worse, you could potentially see a negative 25 move to the S P 500. Now remember when I put ticker symbol spy up that's not sponsored. spy is just a very common uh vehicle that people use to invest in the S P 500 as well as if you want the NASDAQ I Highly encourage you use Qqqm as opposed to QQQ It's the same fund with a lot lower fees anyway.

Okay, A little little freebie there. So uh, growth in all scenarios is lower despite fight looser monetary policy. Now this is unfortunately slightly bearish and we haven't gotten to China yet. So I want to talk obviously about China and is China going to help us or hurt us? Well, we'll find out.

So growth is lower in all scenarios despite looser monetary policy. For real GDP the 0.8 Peak through trough decline in our pre-svb Baseline becomes deeper. So in other words Things become worse. They move the best case scenario to a GDP reduction of 0.9 uh or sorry.

this is a yes, these are likelihood of recession. Call yes, these are the depths for real GDP the 0.8 Peak to trough decline in their Baseline Okay, so these are the declines in GDP as a result of this banking crisis. So they think that GDP in these various scenarios Here from a baseline estimate, we'll go ahead and call Baseline two percent. Let's say so they think you could see Baseline move down 0.9 percent in the Improvement scenario, 1.2 percent in the medium scenario and then the deterioration negative 3.6 Uh.

So so that would put us this right here. would put us down at negative 1.6 percent. Uh, if you come off of a two percent Baseline that's big. That's that's a deep style recession.

And unfortunately, they suggest that we lean towards, uh, greater severity. Here you could see risks are tilted towards greater severity. So in other words, BNP Barbas is actually more bearish. Now they do suggest that inflation could return to Target earlier than expected their original Target was Q3 q324, but they think that inflation is going to deteriorate much faster.

But unfortunately, the damage to the economy could be a lot greater which is not great obviously. so that does potentially knock us on the door of uh, recession. Actually, you can see here, uh, in their various different scenarios, this is their GDP forecast for Q4 So that's taking the the minuses off of their Baseline. So they think that by Q4 we could be in a recession in all scenarios.

In all, in all scenarios, they're looking at uh, negative here and they think that in the good scenario, we are going to see the FED cut by about a quarter. Maybe maybe that's about 10 basis points at the mid, maybe one to two times in the stabilization scenario. But if things really hit the fan, two percent 200 basis points of cuts and again, they see risks tilted to the downside. So again, I always like to report the bare sides as well.

and I want to talk to you about China because this is going to be very important to talk about China but I like to talk about the bear pieces not not because I embellish I Still believe heavily in the Nike Swoosh recovery. The Nike Swoosh remember is wrap it down and then very very long term swoosh up but also very volatile. so a lot of this up and down will be very very expected. But so far we are on this trend.

We have begun this trend. hopefully we maintain that but obviously in their their bearish scenario that that would vanish. So now let's talk about China and some stocks that could benefit from China in in this potential cycle here. So the first thing that we should look at is uh China and and some of the recent news that has been going on and then I want to talk about some stocks.

Uh so first obviously as we just had house Speaker Kevin McCarthy meet with the president of Taiwan Now remember this followed in August Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan directly Now the Speaker of the House is a really important position because you're the third position from the presidency and obviously China wants to reunite Taiwan with China and Taiwan's like Fu we don't want to be Chinese We like capitalism so we're our own independent country and the more the United States recognizes Taiwan the more potentially inflames issues in China uh or or the Chinese political regime. although China has been very I have to say and and I am not like a big uh proponent of China but I will say they have become a lot more level-headed when when Nancy Pelosi visited China oh my God wake up Kevin when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan uh we saw Beijing freak out with uh you know, massive military drills that ended up Landing uh missiles in uh, Japanese economic water and Taiwanese water. Obviously this time around, level-headed Now, back then, they still thought they were in control of the world. in August they were still under coveted lockdowns.

They thought they were perfect. Uh, they thought China could do no wrong China has actually been I think uh, recognizing their humility and I actually give them props for that because since the Chinese party Congress and the elimination of covet controls, you've actually seen China become a lot more moderated. They've been moderate from what we can tell in their relationship with Vladimir Putin they've been more moderate in their relationship with Emmanuel Macron that they have not uh, basically, uh, uh, what's the word when you say uh, China don't go to war with Ukraine They haven't condemned the war in Ukraine but they've been. They've been calling for peace and they've been doing so with Putin.

They've been doing so with macron of France They've been doing so with other world leaders and they've been talking up capitalism more. Which in my opinion, the more you see China talk up capitalism, the lower likelihood China ends up invading Taiwan because that's more of a communist push, right? We're going to imply or impose communism back on Taiwan This is insane and I don't think anybody has said this before, but I'm going to make a projection here if China continues down the path of enjoying capitalism with uh, well, we'll call it socialism with hints of capitalism. Uh, you know. Elon Musk is going to visit China this weekend and they're probably going to put Elon Musk on a pedestal.

An example of how wonderful capitalism is for China and how Great China is a place to do business because they realize a lot of Manufacturers are leaving China because of the coveted lockdowns I Think there's a possibility and I'm making this projection here April 8 2013. Somebody please put this on a calendar and remind me in five years, Kevin made this projection, hold me accountable I Think it is more likely if China stays on this capitalism path that China ends up forging the greatest partnership capitalistic partnership and trade partnership with Taiwan in a capitalistic and independent way. That is a greater possibility than the possibility that China actually invades Taiwan I Really believe that? Uh, so we'll see. we'll have to pay attention to it.

but we also want to talk about how this applies to taking us out of recession. The potential for recession in America right? So we're going to talk about that and that's how we're going to link this with this: BMP better at this piece here. but I want to give you some baseline here. so obviously you have these meetings here.

Uh, uh. there's obviously there are complaints about sanctions and blocking China from getting Advanced manufacturing. Then there are complaints that China is just stealing our Advanced Manufacturing Technologies by stealing Technologies from Asml Don't get me wrong, which is a Dutch company the Netherlands as we like to say in Europe though Holland Anyway, um, there's a lot of tension between the countries, right? But then how could potentially China affect our recessionary? Outlook Well, Barclays has a piece on this and I think it's quite interesting. Let's take a look at the Barclays piece here.

Look at this: China's recovery is being powered by Services demand stimulation rather than straight up stimulus to people limiting external spillovers. Okay, that's great. So that means less risk of a negative GDP result from China uh, dragging the entire world economy down while this minimizes uh the potential benefit to U.S stocks as a whole. Because think about this: if China if the Chinese are spending more on local Services local restaurants local Hospitality local travel, then they're not spending so much on American Goods necessarily.

However, which is is not necessarily a boon to American companies. However, it could be a boon to American companies who have a lot of exposure to China who sell stuff within China. So I wrote down some examples here: Tesla right now sits at about 22 22.9 percent of its sales to China. That could be between the 20 to 30 percent going into the future Nvidia and AMD 25 of their revenues come from China.

Some of that will be getting hit just like Taiwan Semiconductors or Asml. Some of that will be getting hit. Asml is another company that sells to China and they will sell um, uh, 7 to 22 nanometer Advanced lithography machines to China. They're not allowed to sell the three and five nanometer machines.

Uh, anyway, that doesn't so much matter. Um, but the point is, there are a lot of companies that have a lot of exposure to China and Barclays makes the argument that look, even if we go into recession, there are actually ways that you can expose your portfolio to China without directly having to invest in Chinese stocks. To potentially get some upside of investing in China, Uh, ASMR is another one. Look at Apple for example, Apple would be another one that gets revenues obviously from China which is fantastic.

That would be fascinating to see if we can get an Apple. Maybe if we can get an Apple 10K Oh, look at this. I Happen to have an Apple 10K here and let's see where some of their revenues come from in China If we could get a breakdown of revenues, which we probably can pretty quickly, let's just do a fine for China in here and I'll go ahead. and uh, I don't want to cause any kind of epile update problems and so I won't page through that.

We'll go and pull China here in just a moment. But what you can do to find this out? Oh I already found it 16 greater China So what you can do anytime you want to know how much a company sells to a particular country is just look at the 10K which is just the annual report and they usually have a segment Revenue piece. Look at that 16 of Apple sales come from China. You know something that I want you to know is that as the dollar weakens, you can actually have a foreign exchange benefit to earnings per share by having exposure to China Now remember when the dollar was strengthening, these companies were losing money due to FX adjustments.

Now they are potentially gaining money due to FX adjustments. Max Thank you for mentioning this. You are correct as folks: Starbucks has exploded in China I have not had the balls yet to invest in China But I'll tell you this is the Chinese or the the Starbucks earnings call over here I Want to see that what they mentioned over here in China this is uh I just looked through this. Usually we do this in the course member live streams.

We go through fundamental analysis like this. Uh, but I want to look at look at all these mentions for China We continue to grow our store footprint in Q1 we surpassed 5500 stores in China. Do keep in mind they basically doubled their stores in China during Co during covet like they used Covet Zero to just build and we haven't actually seen the revenues from that yet, which is pretty incredible. So you've got some huge Starbucks exposure in China which makes me very excited about S buck stock I've been so tempted, but I really want them at like 80 bucks I Think their valuation is a little high for coffee, but you know I'm not I'm not trying to downplay them as coffee.

Okay I I Did drive down into town yesterday just to get myself Starbucks because I'm at like one of these like Mormon hotels and and uh, they they don't open the coffee shop as early as I need and they close it way earlier than I need. So I could basically never get coffee here and the coffee in the rooms is like it's like Mormon beer. it's worthless. Uh, and and that's nothing against Mormons Okay, I'm a big fan of Mormons Okay, I've got a designated Mormon uh I think they're great people, hard-working people.

but I'll tell you, when it comes to coffee, don't rely on the Mormons to get your coffee. Uh, but anyway, so um, a point being here, there are some really big opportunities to expose yourself to China without actually exposing yourself to China Uh, and and that those are those are uh, through companies now? Uh, there are obviously some risks, right? and uh, on that note, I want to talk specifically about uh, this video. This is a video that I'd like to react to when it comes to China Keep in mind China's also been meeting with Brazil uh, they're they're going all over the place. Uh oh yeah, here we go.

uh us is pushing China to its own Red Line former Morgan Stanley and uh and some other individuals Warren here. So we're going to look at this together as soon as Kevin can figure out exactly how to do that. So while I figure out how to do that I think it'd be very easy to just say and remind you to check out the programs on building your wealth Link down below because we've got that expiring coupon code on the 12th and the prices will be going up. Prices Trend up over time.

So the sooner you get in, the sooner you lock in the best price guaranteed. Okie Dokie! So let's go ahead and remove this. Clean this up a little bit. Then we can throw up a banner.

Why don't we throw up the stream yard Banner Banner here. Shout out to uh, Streamyard Metcaven.com stream Yard where you can record and live stream and throw up all these banners and everything very easily. It's a great software. Okay, so let's listen to this together so let's see.

Let me know if the volume is okay while it's playing or if there are any issues in the chat. please and let's go. Our next customer is the risk of a hot war between the US and China is growing. Yale Senior fellow Stephen Roach is the former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia He also wrote the book Accidental Conflict America China and The Clash of false Narratives Stephen It's always great to get your take on all things China and I'm wondering how you would you know now you're a professor how you would grade the calculus that was done by Kevin McCarthy in meeting with the Taiwanese President at this moment in time? Well, Melissa on I I think um, nothing happens by accident in Washington when it comes to China And the same is true of Um China with respect to the United States uh McCarthy like his predecessor, Nancy Pelosi uh, there's no big secret as to what, um, their their the message they're sending is guy just indicated their uh offering support for Taiwanese Independence They won't say that explicitly but uh, that is uh, the not so subtle subtext and thank you.

uh, sorry, that's silly me. I muted myself I Want you to think about this I wanted to. It's obvious that there's tension between Taiwan and China. That's obvious.

We know that. But what I want you to know is when you hear about the Taiwan China flood that we hear about what I want you to know about is this article right here. Look at this line right here: the possibility of war in Asia something that was long Unthinkable has prompted governments and companies to assess their exposure to China. Now think about that folks.

I Want you to think about that for a moment. What does What does China not want companies to do? It should be obvious. You should know the answer to this: What does China not want companies to do? They don't want companies to leave. So if Bloomberg is saying dude, the more we escalate fear-mongering and War the more our companies leave.

So think about this for a moment. Nancy Pelosi visits visits Taiwan China freaks out with all their military drills, companies start leaving. then China's like we done effed up. We don't want companies to leave.

Okay, let's kill Covet Zero. Let's invite companies back. Let's get Elon Musk to come to China Let's talk about how great capitalism is and let's stop being so angry against Taiwan And so when you hear the fear-mongering of Taiwan and China and this War I really want you to think about how many companies are now leaving China including Apple going to like Indonesia and India I want you to think about how many companies and how much money China stands to lose just by fear-mongering and the odds of War go down. the more fear-mongering uh uh uh, there is because the more fear-mongering there is, the more companies leave, more companies leave, the more China's like, okay, we're screwing up So just think about that as you're listening to this fud and I'm not saying it's fake news, there is a very real argument to be made about war between China and Taiwan But I want you to think about both sides.

It's very important. Let's keep listening. And for China that is, that is their red line and they push back last August and they will most assurely push back. After this meeting, it wasn't You know quite the same thing, but you know it.

It clearly raises a real warning flag for them that uh, we're going to keep uh, you know, putting our foot on their throat I was in China see I disagree with that I don't think we're putting our foot on their throat. What we're doing is we're promoting capitalism and China's actually starting to accept that as they should last week. Um, I was in the same meaning that Tim Cook was at and you know, Sherry was saying positive things about Apple's relations with Uh China and because he wants to keep doing business with him in terms of selling products, but also in, uh, offshoring, uh production to to China at considerable saving to American iPhone addicted consumers. Uh, so he's walking a you know, a fine line here.

And then you know the Select committee. We know where they're coming from. Uh, they want to bash anyone and anything that has anything to do uh with with China and they will, um, you know, drag these guys all the multinationals you decided will probably be uh, brought in front of their committee and interrogated just the way. uh The Tick Tock Uh, CEO was her ring and that's not a big deal, that's really not a big deal.

Let the CEOs be brought before select committee said this doesn't matter Um, last week in Washington and remember that Tick Tock CEO is not the CEO of bite dance that Tick Tock CEO is a puppet you know McCarthy said after this meeting that he believes that there's a bipartisan position on the need to speed up arms deliveries to Taiwan. So um, you know the rhetoric is certainly there. and I don't think that there's any sort of hidden messages to what what the intent is when it comes to Taiwan and China Stephen When it comes to the multinationals, you know, if you were in the position as you were before to advise these companies, what would you say in terms of you know whether or not they should be prepared that they have to pull their business out or in some way pair it back? Well, a lot a lot of multinationals have made major commitments to China and they certainly don't want to pull out. but I think at the same time Melissa there in their boardrooms, they're all talking about contingency plans about hedging, uh, their offshore production.

uh uh, away from China Apple's already done that with a shifting some iPhone assembly and production to Vietnam and uh, India a small amount. but uh, I think you know all multinationals who have made such a massive commitment to China Uh, wanna at least begin to work hard on a plan B here. what is your guess on what the retaliation from China might be? You know not only do we have this going, we have also you know the hearings on tick tock not that long ago and so do you think that it would be a hit to U.S companies in China or would it be something more along the lines of of a sort of like a defense, not a military but maybe a cyber or something like that as opposed to on industry. Oh look last last, October excuse me last August they uh certainly had a major uh probably the the single largest uh pla military exercise uh in the Taiwan Straits um uh in years If if not ever, and you know I I think you can you can I actually have a an image on that.

Let me throw that up. take a look at this. Uh, there we go. There we go this uh this shows you their military exercise and how missiles landed in economic Waters around Taiwan and Japan and uh it was.

It was a pretty big exercise, but again, we're not seeing that again. Today we're seeing a relaxation I Worry that this individual talking uh at CNBC here is is promoting the the original China not this revised China that we've seen over the last only four or five months. He's talking about the China from eight nine months ago and I know it seems crazy that you know an entire country could flip-flop Uh, but um, something to think about. All right, let's keep going here.

Uh, you can look for a a similar uh type of response. maybe not as extreme, maybe just as extreme. Uh, we don't know they have moved uh, aircraft carriers? um, you know in In in the Taiwan Straits uh close to the Uh to the island and they they are reported to have other ships significant um, uh presence or ships in the area as well and whether or not they uh, move them into the same type of um, uh, warning position I am I Have no idea Stephen Thank you. nice to see you Stephen Roach Um, it's one thing to move away production out of the country, but you can't move your coffee store out of the country.

If that's what you do, you can't Yeah, and we're building more of those over there. Okay, so you know this gives you more of this sort of traditionalist argument. uh I I think that China has has substantially uh, revised uh since then and I'm hopeful and I Look to continued new signs of this Uh, so it's it's worth to note now Deep's here in our chat is uh is making a fair point uh that China has also warned uh against or of worst case scenarios. Uh, and this is a very realistic point of view as well.

That yeah, we have to keep in mind that we are in a global recessionary time and there are a lot of tensions. But you also have to remember that China has to play to some extent both sides. They have to make the argument that hey, wait a minute. look, we we still love socialism, We still demand our power and things could get really, really bad.

Of course they have to say that by default I'll go ahead and play that segment because um Mr Deep's here was very nice to uh to provide uh insight into that. so let's see if we can play that here. Casual dangers: Be prepared to deal with worst case scenarios and be ready to withstand High wings choppy Waters and even dangerous storms they're making the illusion to obviously that hey, you know, look, we're going through a global transition here in economic uh, mad house, right? So um, anyway I I think it's it's very interesting and uh, you know what? What ultimately they want to do though and this is my belief is is build out business uh and prosperity for companies because that's going to help them lead to um, common their ultimate goal of common Prosperity Uh and uh and so they're remember. remember for example, when China took over solar panel production, when they really started solar panel production back in and I think it was around 2013.

they not only now today make the most solar panels, but they make the best solar panels. something to watch for. Uh, so let's see, let's listen to this segment as well. This is a pretty interesting piece.

Uh, this gives you just a little bit of a contrast. Also from the 20th party com uh party Congress this was in about I think it was November Anyway, let's listen China's manufacturing sectors. it's the largest in the world as or is foreign exchange Reserves We have made breakthroughs in some core Technologies in key fields and boosted emerging strategic Industries We have witnessed major success in multiple fronts including men's space flight, lunar and marching exploration. Whatever.

I mean the whole thing is is a lot of just Chinese proper. But I'm sure the point of showing that is to show that yes, you can obviously show the bear case scenario. Obviously we know that and we could say yes, this would be bad for companies with exposure to China But when we consider the transition of the recent actions and the recent speeches bragging about capitalism bragging about Elon Musk and Shanghai look for example, you really only have to go to the South China uh Sun post uh they are. They really show you that uh here I'll just pull it up really quick.

they show they give a they give my favorite example here and the example that They give if I could find the darn thing. The example they give is they show how Manufacturing in China succeeds and they use Tesla as an example. And that's one of the reasons why Elon going to China is so powerful right now because you're really highlighting that China doesn't want to go to war. They want more manufacturing here.

It's one of the reasons they ended covet Zero. It's one of the reasons they are being more neutral in response to this reaction of the President of Taiwan coming to visit. Kevin McCarthy MO more neutral in the face of Ukraine balanced with Russia balanced with France balanced with Brazil. Now don't take it from me.

listen yourself to the latest actions that China is taking and when we do that, I think the fun that comes out of China is a little excessive and I think it's unlikely that there's going to be a war between uh, the Uh between the two I actually think it's much a higher. There's a higher likelihood that China ends up helping us grow uh GDP and uh, now of course. Look, we know that a lot of people are hoping that China's uh, reopening was really going to help commodity prices pop up. So far, that hasn't happened.

For example, here's a piece from JP Morgan JP Morgan showing that hey, China's dodging the global inflation that we're seeing, but we're not seeing commodity price booths. Instead, somehow we're able to uh to to maximize growth with goods and services. So you have sort of localized travel inflation but not exported inflation. Uh, no, uh, no major issues in terms of inflationary Dynamics affecting Global inflation which is fantastic.

You've got an inflection point in uh, in in Chinese real estate with finally a bottom being found uh at companies like Evergrand and uh, in other companies affected by the real estate. A burst that we've seen. and that's not to say that China is perfect I Don't want to sound like a you know Chinese apologist here by any means. The idea is simply to say that making bets on a war between China and Taiwan I think are your Edge case scenario I Think you're probably looking at more of a let's say five to ten percent chance rather than a base case that we're going to see war that could then accelerate pain in Asia which would be obviously very bad for companies exposed to China That's why my opinion is I Don't trust China enough to invest in China directly.

but I do trust American companies with exposure to China as a tool for investing I Think inexpensively now and as long as we Nike Swoosh out of this pain, hopefully things can continue to be fantastic or fantastic for those companies with exposure in China That does make me excited about companies like AMD Asml Nvidia Tesla Starbucks even though I'm not in Starbucks I am exposed to the others. so those are some of my thoughts. I Do think that Global growth will slow as a BMP Barabus puts it and that's what I think we get a volatile Nike Swoosh But overall when it comes to China not as bearish as a lot of other folks are, so that's my take on China and recession. All right, let's go to the next one.

The next segment is all right. All right, let me take a quick peek here and give me one second here to put our next piece. Let me see here if I could find something juicy. Uh, actually.

ah, this is actually I'm gonna pull this piece up here in just a second and I want to show a couple other things. Oh I Got them? Uh, okay. here are the stats I was looking for. Let me just throw these stats in really quick.

Uh, okay. here are two other pieces. really quick to give a little bit more color on China Oopsies, There, We go there. We go there, we go.

Okay, Now just to add a little bit more clarity on China Take a look at this Goldman Sachs Research here from April So just about within the last week here. uh, both Services PMI and Construction Pmis have reached their highest levels in China since 2012.. government-led infrastructure building remains robust, suggesting policy makers are more patient than in previous cycles and are unlikely to withdraw support and take a look at this on Monday March 27th First Vice Pre