Hey, everyone, welcome back to another meet! Kevin Report We are on episode number 70. it is no longer April 1st which is good news because it means Donald Trump is not actually suing me. But we do have some updates uh to knock out of the world Park uh regarding not only donor to Trump but we'll talk about that sticky left tail at recessionary risk. We'll talk about the evolving credit crisis and we'll also look at some of the uh, economic catalysts coming up I'd like to do that on Sundays gives us a little bit of a look at uh, really, the week ahead and some of the dates that we want to be paying attention to uh, really over the next couple of weeks.

so we'll go through all of this together. So anyway, uh, happy Sunday Thank you so much for being here. Really appreciate it. So uh first, why don't we knock out the um big big Donnie T issue? So we'll start with Don ET and then we'll jump on over there, uh to uh to the next topics.

All right? So Donald Trump All right here we go. Well, Donald Trump is back at it again. One of the first things the attorneys for Donald Trump are expected to do is try to move the trial for Donald Trump in this indictment that we're expecting to be unsealed on Tuesday to Staten Island Now there's an obvious reason for this, and it is because Staten Island attends to Lean Republican. In fact, if you zoom in onto New York and you look at Staten Island specifically, which uh, it's kind of interesting because most of the properties that Trump owns are actually in Manhattan, not Staten Island.

But anyway, if you zoom in and look at Staten Island, you'll find that about 57 of the voting base is Republican Exactly 56.9 percent of people voted for Trump in 2020. in Staten Island 42 percent voted Democratic. Now this is a clear difference because that means Staten Island leans conservative. Well, guess which direction New York City Lanes It should be obvious it Lanes left, but how left does it lean well in 2020? Joe Biden got 76 of the vote in Manhattan Donald Trump only got 23 of the vote in in Manhattan in 2016 Hillary Clinton won 79 compared to Trump's just 18.

So he actually improved his his overall voting base in by 2020. but uh still ended up losing by a significant margin in New York City Now we do expect uh, some some outcomes of this. So first of all, for moving this case to Staten Island, we think there's probably a next to zero percent chance that the case will actually be moved to Staten Island. It doesn't seem like there would be a reason for moving it, especially since Donald Trump's most of his connections are to Manhattan and some could allege that the actual crime occurred in the district of Manhattan and perhaps while Donald Trump was residing at Trump Tower TVD.

But what we know is that we expect the indictment against Donald Trump with potentially as many as as 32 different charges to be unsealed against Donald Trump on Tuesday. Of course, many of these charges are likely to weigh uh, evidence on these hush money payments potentially paid or not paid to Stormy Daniels Uh, in the litigation around that now Donald Trump at least according to this, uh, it was actually a pretty good piece. And and we know the New York Times does not like Trump and we know Donald Trump Rags on the New York Times all the time. But uh, just for the sake of naming sources.

This morning, the New York Times had a cover page article and they were talking about how Donald Trump has this tactic of basically delay everything as much as possible. And really, that's where I'm going to leave that piece because I don't want to go so deep into that one. What I think is very interesting about that is Donald Trump's legal strategy is hey, look Sue all you want But what I'm going to do in the meantime is I'm going to use that lawsuit as ammunition for my fundraising, which is actually to some extent is quite brilliant. I Mean, if you have a very politically divisive lawsuits against you, why not just delay every potential progression of those lawsuits and everything you could do at every point in turn, try to get more media coverage to it? I Mean think about this: What? I just covered Donald Trump Potentially wanting to motion to move his lawsuit to Staten Island Obviously, that's not going to happen, it's just not going to happen.

But you know, what's really interesting is it's another thing that gets people talking about Donald Trump And it's brilliant. This is sort of the principle uh, which which is outlined in in some of his books including Art of the Deal which uh, technically co-authored Uh, but um, there's there's this concept I don't think he uses this particular phrase. It's been a while since I've looked at these, but uh, there's this concept of Chaos Theory especially in litigation and it really is. How much can you do to just make the other side's life a living hell and you pepper them from every angle possible? This is exactly what happens when you poke Donald Trump to some extent, look, he poked.

Donald Trump With the threat of this indictment happening, what happens Donald Trump comes out and turns it into a massive political rallying crime. Ends up getting Congress involved sending letters to the district attorney to which time which which now the district attorney has to basically to take time from what they're doing and actually respond to all of this. which Congress obviously at least the three Representatives who put this letter together like well I mean we have the right to oversight you. This is part of your duty anyway.

don't tell us who you know, you're wasting time responding to us. You are the obligated to respond to us. Okay, fine, but the point is, it's brilliant. I mean now you've got the biggest security possible around the District Attorney's Office The New York Police Department is expecting to shut down most of the streets around where this indictment uh and the arraignment will be held, uh, the the as well as the booking process.

We do not expect Donald Trump to be in handcuffs. Honestly, from a publicity point of view, it'd probably look a lot like closed streets. Some angry people outside of the closed streets Donald Trump Almost like going to a doctor's office. like checking in and checking back out.

And so I kind of think the arraignment on Tuesday will probably be a relative nothing. Burger Because it'll be here comes Donald Trump's motorcade. Then he walks into a building and an hour later he walks out. There's no jail, no handcuffs.

it's it's almost gonna be like a business appointment. but the the chaos that Donald Trump insert creates around the District Attorney's office is his. Playbook That's exactly the Playbook is. How can we distract you in every way? How can we politically rail or what she's already doing on the judge on the District Attorney? on everybody involved? How can we get people to hate those people? How can we get people to basically egg those people's houses or cost them? And and how can we increase law enforcement presence in the area and then use all this as a fundraising tactic? You know again, I Don't actually think Donald Trump thinks there's a chance in hell this case is actually going to get moved to Staten Island But what does it do is it says hey, please move the case to Staten Island Now everybody covers it Oh my Gosh! Donald Trump is trying to get the case moved to Staten Island the people look at Staten Island Go oh Staten Island's so conservative.

Wow. Manhattan really is is liberal? Wow. 76 percent Biden Uh 79 Hillary Damn you know, is this going to be a fair trial? You see what? like he's doing? Like literally it's I mean I I I Always try to be neutral but I can't help but look at some of the just the pure Brilliance there I say sometimes of these moves because really, by suggesting hey, let's move it to Staten Island he's really highlighting to the world how liberal New York City actually is. and in doing that, he can basically say look, hey, Republicans if if you want me to have a chance in this election, you're going to have to send some more.

Uh, Dalahalas over. You know, because this is going to be a hard fight I You can't believe it. It's it's a brilliant strategy. Uh, and and every day he pulls off something like this.

It's a fantastic way of his campaign getting more attention and more donations coming his way. So, uh, very interestingly on. Tuesday Again, we do expect those streets to be closed around where the arraignment is to be held. Tuesday Tentatively Donald Trump is expected to check in around 2 p.m and I Understand that some of this, uh, you know, it makes people frustrated, they don't like hearing about politics or Trump But it's very, very important because uh, the economy responds to what happens in politics.

Remember that Goldman Sachs believes the inflation reduction act, rather than being deficit negative, is actually probably going to expand the deficit substantially more than expected. The spending of the inflation reduction Act is likely to be three times as great, and the actual deficit reduction portions are actually likely to be smaller than expected. Again, per via Goldman Sachs Uh, and and this shows you is just really an inflation reduction. Act is really likely going to end up being inflationary as stimulus checks are essentially being delivered to the energy sector.

and then you've got the 80 billion Chips act, which is probably also likely to cost maybe twice or three times as much. Uh, via the similar principles: cost overruns for manufacturing plants being built or whatever, and then and then basically companies, uh, begging the government for more money and they're getting it. So politics really does matter when it comes to finances and where we want to invest. This is why I Think chips and energy stocks have substantial pricing power right now.

But anyway, uh uh, this this, uh, all of this this. Donald Trump uh entertainment dare I say uh, should probably encourage you to, uh, get life insurance? Get life insurance. In those little five minutes it's super easy to do. You just go to Metcaven.com Life and you will go from not having life insurance to having life insurance.

literally. Before you're even done watching this video, you could probably be done. uh, signing up for it and then you can tell your family and every everyone. Hey look Finally got it! I Finally did I Finally checked it off the list.

Uh, of course this. uh, this video is brought to you by Stream Yard. so shout out to Stream Yard. thank you so much to them Magic Kevin.com Stream Yard and check out those programs on building your wealth, link down below Stream Yard and the insurance.

of course a paid promotion. So uh, with that said, look obviously Tuesday is going to be I think there's an expectation that Tuesday is going to be very entertaining, but I'm not. I'm not holding expectations out that it is going to be vastly entertaining that we're going to see massive protests that we're somehow going to see, uh, some form of of, uh, you know, hustle and or some sort of like, how should I say tussle I guess is the word I was looking for between Donald Trump and law enforcement I Really think it'll be like checking in for a doctor's appointment? It'll be actually kind of boring. The most important issue that'll come out on Tuesday will be what are the actual charges and potentially the evidence.

So that gives us an update on what's going on with Gunny T. All right. So Kevin What do you think the nation's debt is going to be an issue? and when do we need to reduce it? The trillion dollar coin isn't going to happen. But really.

look the the debt crisis. the debt ceiling will get expanded again. Uh, really. the time to pay off the debt is an expansionary period of time.

although that can be very tenuous. So I think what's most important right now is getting the economy back to a, uh, a state of of actual stability. Uh, so we've got some time to go before. I think um, though they'll be talk about deficit reduction at some point in the next 50 years.

I think it'll become quite important. Uh, uh. what is this a viral picture of five countries making new currency? I haven't heard of this. Oh Brazil Russia India China South Africa working together to create their own currency and that's quite interesting.

And let's see here. let's see: I'm looking for a source we can look at I'll give you my reaction. All right, let's see here. Mm-hmm Okay, how many paywalls we're gonna hit to try to get a story that we can actually look at? This is ridiculous.

All right. All right here we go. Let's see what this story is. Okay, that's pretty short.

All right. I'll give you a reaction to it. Let me Mark this. Let's go with let's see All right and we're gonna present standby.

We will. We're going to start with this, but I'd like to get a Bloomberg piece. Hold on. Give me a sec if I can get another source here I think it'll be quite useful.

Let me see here. just make another second here just to respond. Actually, not even being covered there. That's fascinating.

Yeah, there's not a lot of mainstream media attention on that right now. That's interesting. Okay, all right, let's go take a look at it. Uh, well.

commenter just asked me what I think about the fact that five countries are potentially now working on creating their own currency. Those countries are Brazil Russia India China and South Africa There's a piece here that we can take a peek at in coin. Telegraph Mainstream media surprisingly is not covering this. Uh, at least not yet.

So let's take a peek at what we've got here. We've got this story that we want to cover and let's see where there we go there. We can show it all right, so let's see what we've got. We've got, uh, a new world order could be emerging.

As an economic power or as economic powerhouses increase their efforts to distance themselves from the U.S Hegemony. Ooh, remember, hegemony is a regional power. According to reports, a top Russian official has claimed that the Brics Alliance is working on creating its own currency. You know? Okay, let's let me stop right there.

This is my first time reading through. Do this. But let me stop right there. First of all, uh, the bricks.

You're talking about relatively small economies with the exception of China here. Uh, and but India has a substantial potential of being a relatively large player in the future. But let's let's add these together so we can do this at the same time. But in the meantime, my initial reaction to this is this is probably Uh Russian propaganda I Hate to say it, but it's probably Russian propaganda.

Uh, and if this is coming just from Russia, it's not going to be, in my opinion, that credible. It's entirely possible that in the past, maybe in 2019 2021, maybe there was this idea that oh hey, we should all get together and create a currency. Okay, maybe, but I don't think this is coming up now. I Think the the financial stability risks are too high right now and there's too much tenuousness right now to actually care about creating some kind of new currency now.

So I Wouldn't be surprised if this is sort of a revived idea of when these countries maybe had officials together like hey, we should make our own currency Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's a good idea, you know. I I Think people immediately get very nervous about this idea of oh my gosh, what's that going to mean for the United States The reality is nothing like this has been done many times before. I Mean consider when the Euro was created. Did that really change anything? No, if anything, some people say the Euro helped create the European crisis and actually reduce growth in Europe because they had a combined currency and you no longer had central banks in individual countries which could respond: I mean consider, consider what happened with Europe Uh, the Euro really went into prominence What's tomorrow in 2003 and uh, you had a massive uh, austerity crisis around 2000 and 10 11, 12, 13, 14 I Mean there wasn't even enough money to pay for trash service in Greece Why was that? Well, it was because Germany was progressing so well and their economy was holding up so strongly that the entire Eurozone was actually lifted up by Germany And so the Eurozone thought.

Okay, well, let's put a lid on Germany. Let's lower the the strength of the strong countries Germany France right? Uh, and now if we put a lid on them and they have austerity, well, crap. We are also essentially implementing austerity to all of the other countries. But then when you look at what is derogatorily called the pigs, Portugal Italy Greece Spain These are the highly indebted countries at least were.

When you look at these countries, you look and go wait. Why are they supposed to go through austerity? They they need stimulus, not austerity. And so what ended up happening was not only massive protests, but a really a fear that the Euro was going to collapse. So if anything, people believe that this experiment of the Euro and sort of a common currency was actually a greater mistake because it didn't give you that freedom to basically print and trade and swap like liquidity swap so to speak.

Uh, as uh, as as freely as Banks would like to create more of a market equilibrium. the more you try to engineer currency. Oftentimes the less functional it ends up becoming. and that was really seen in Europe Uh.

substantially. And then growth fell so much in Europe uh. Whether that's uh, that's a causational correlation is is you know to be argued and debated. But growth fell so much in Europe that you ended up with negative interest rates at the end of uh of the decade.

Uh, So right before the pandemic, right? But I Mean, look at, look at the countries that you're talking about here that are listed together. First of all, Russia is like a joke in terms of economic size. They act like they're equal to the United States, but their economy is is somewhere around the size of Brazil's and it's probably substantially weaker today Given that I'm going to give you rush Russia's Econo economic strength as of as of 2021 was about 1.77 trillion dollars. Honestly, that's probably down somewhere around 20 percent.

They're probably around a 1.5 trillion dollar economy. That's a fraction compared to the U.S Uh, GDP And look, even though we talk about recession, recession might be a reduction of what maybe half of a percent or something? So we're still sitting in excess of 23 trillion dollars of an economy That makes our economy 15 times as large as Russia's 15 times as large as a Brazil's which is part of this. You know how many times the larger uh we are compared to South Africa 55 times? Yes, China might hold a candle to us, but China has its own problems. Uh, Fortunately, China isn't seeing inflation because they're not actually seeing this massive worker shortage.

In fact, there are a lot of people with not enough money in China and so you're definitely still developing in many regards. In China, India is is still somewhere around 1 8 the size 1 7 to 1 8 the size of we are. And yes, they're growing. And yes, they have the potential of growing stronger.

But when you consider Europe and the size of these economies am I really terribly concerned that oh, they might form today is some new currency. Who gives a crap? It really isn't going to make a difference. So I think a lot of this is probably just unnecessary fear-mongering that occurs. Uh, and quite frankly I Made a video the other day because a lot of people now are talking about this idea of oh my gosh, the dollar is going to lose its Reserve status of the currency because it's going to no longer be used as the Petro dollar.

Please just type into YouTube Meet kevinunited States Dollar China Type that in and watch my video. the collapse of the Dollar, the end of America on the rise of China And when you go through the video I Think you'll realize this whole petrodollar and dollar crisis disaster is a historically something that's always been going on. and B not that big of a deal. Not that big of a deal at all.

It's it's a unlikely anytime in the near future, especially uh, before oil, in my opinion, becomes a lot less functional in our economy. But also this is quite quite quite silly. Look, Mexico joining as well. Who cares? Like it? It doesn't? It doesn't matter.

Uh, it really. Then you have to also ask yourself. So first of all, we went through Europe Then we went through Petro Dollar. Now you have to ask yourself, Who cares if they make their own joint currency? If anything, it's going to just cause the Euro problems.

But even if somehow they had their own currency. Big deal. Okay, Fantastic. Like congratulations, you have your own currency Does that? all of a sudden make your economy a lot stronger? No.

Is there an idea that? well, maybe people will want to buy this new currencies, uh, debt and maybe there'll be a central bank to to moderate all of these countries. Now you have to ask yourself, do you really think China wants, uh, wants to lose control over the uh Bank of China uh and and basically relinquish monetary control to uh a shared voice with South Africa Brazil Russia India and maybe Mexico Of course not. It doesn't make any sense. Like from a logical point of view, it makes little sense and then from a practical point of view it makes little sense as well because of the Euro crisis.

But then I mean even even the African states were considering creating a currency called the Afro. Look it up. That's not a joke. After the Euros creation, there was a thought that African countries would get together and create the the Afro.

It ended up falling apart and it was never. It was never launched. But uh, it it really ultimately like okay, go have your common currency. Does it really make that big of a difference? No, the entire currency is still going to be underwritten by the strength of the underlying economies.

and even if in aggregate, somehow that common currency has a larger underlying economy than the United States Is the trust of that the same as the US dollar? No, and it won't be for a very long period of time because you still have to underrate right? the risk of Russia going bankrupt and maybe 10 of your bonds becoming worthless Uh with with this combined currency, right? So you still have to underwrite, You know it's like there's there's this famous I don't know what they're saying if there's a saying to it, but there's this famous idea on Wall Street that when you take two mediocre companies or even two, you could even go as far as saying take two good companies and merge them, you end up with one mediocre company. Usually mergers are not a good thing, you lose the innovativeness uh, that originally came and I think a lot of that would be true here as well. So so to me it's just once again just a bunch of uh of nonsense and hogwash. But we'll look at it anyway.

According to reports, the top Russian official Again, the fact that Russia is claiming this is just a complete nonsense. But anyway. uh, and I'm not saying this is not potentially something that could happen at some point in the future, but I mean again. I think I made my argument made the comments at the St Petersburg economic Forum event in India whatever reportedly stressed the importance of both Nations working together towards a new medium of payments.

Well do keep in mind this a new medium of payments is different, uh, or or potentially different. I mean I Suppose you could have a some kind of currency system, but what you are seeing is this move away from Uh Swift to some extent. uh, China has its own uh banking messaging system and platform uh called Cips, Sips and uh, that's that's been going on for years. I mean the larger these economies go, of course there's going to be competition to to uh banking systems, but that's that's okay.

That to some extent is also healthy. It keeps the United States innovating as well, right? You know when you're when you're in the lead in a race and somebody's catching up to you, you start running faster. He also said the currency could benefit from China and other brick members, not just the West right? Oh yeah. I Doubt that the composition should not be based on inducting new monetary ties and establishing a strategy that does not defend the issue, but rather forms a new currency.

blah blah blah. Shared objectives. Yeah, you all just want to grow. That's that's fine.

Russia would probably love this because then they'd have some currency stability. That's the other thing you have to keep in mind is if the source of this is Russia you know there's probably a reason the mainstream media isn't covering it because it's probably just Russian propaganda because Russia would love a stable Rupal that ruples down like 20 percent. Uh, it's it's uh, you know it's it's it's not good for their economy, so they would love to uh, you know, tie their anchor to to other countries. I mean Russia is essentially devastating their economy Really? I mean you have to consider that the individual who was arrested uh who worked for the Wall Street Journal Uh, let's see Russia economy that was this is the last piece the uh Wall Street Journal reporter made uh before he was arrested in uh in Russia in Moscow I believe it was was the following.

and I think it's also worth looking at because it just gives you a little bit more of insight into how much should we really actually care about this? This Russian propaganda really. And there we go. Let's throw up the coupon code while we're at it. Uh, that will.

by the way, the price for that will be going up on April 12th. so that's in about 10 days. That's when CPI occurs. anyway.

So what do we have here? Uh, let's see there I can expand it a little bit good. The opening months of Russia's Invasion into Ukraine last year drove an increase in oil and natural gas prices that brought a windfall for Moscow. Those days are over as the war continues into its second year in Western Sanctions bite harder. Russia's government revenue is being squeezed and its economy has shifted to a lower growth trajectory likely for the long term.

See of course Russia's lashing out and the idea is, let's let's all create a currency. Together with countries that aren't falling apart like, uh, like Russia, the country's biggest exports gas and oil have lost major customers. Government government finances are strained. The Rupal was down over 20 since November against the dollar.

The labor force has shrunk as young people are sent to the front. the warfront that is, or flee the country over fears of being drafted a lot of Russians by the way, fleeing to Finland which Finland is a potential NATO member. there's a train or I'm not sure if it's operational anymore. I Believe that goes from St Petersburg directly to Finland like a Non-Stop kind of train.

Uncertainty has curved business investment. Yeah, no kidding. Could you imagine being a business in Russia right now? You just want to survive. Could you imagine trying to expand Right now? Russia's economy is entering into a long-term regression that's even worse than recession.

There's no sign, the economic difficulties are bad enough to propose a short-term threat to Russia's ability to wage war. In other words, don't think the war is going to end because of this. But state revenue shortfalls suggests an intensifying dilemma over how to reconcile ballooning military expenditures with the subsidies and social spending that have helped Vladimir Putin Shield civilians from hardship. In other words, at some point you're going to inflate away the value of your currency.

Russian Billionaire, blah blah. Warned this month that Russia is running out of cash. There will be no money next year. We need foreign investors.

Look at this so you hear you have a Russian billionaire and raw materials guy Commodities kind of guy which the Commodities just are not surging the way people thought they would. People thought as soon as China reopened Commodities would surge. it's just not happening right now. Uh, but now what do we have this out of this here? Well, we have this indication that look but you basically have a Wall Street Journal reporter who quoted a Russian billionaire saying Russia is running out of money and we need money.

We need help and immediately after this gets arrested Evan over here. this was his last piece before he got arrested I mean basically the day after the story published, he was in handcuffs and in prison. The fact that he made Moscow a second home was mind-blowing to me. but then again, that's probably how he actually got the content for his stories.

So I suppose it cuts both ways. But anyway, having largely lost its European market next door and with other investors pulling out, Moscow is becoming ever more resilient on China See, look at this. They want that. I'm telling you what's What's the phrase I think there's a relation a relationship phrase hitch the wagon Moscow is trying to Hitch their Wagon on China because they're falling apart, threatening to realize long-simmering fears in Moscow of becoming an economic colony of its of its dominant Southern neighbor.

Despite Russia's resilience in the short term, the long-term picture is: Bleak Moscow will be much more inward looking and overly dependent on China instead of senior fellow think tank in London Big part of the diminishing Outlook stems from a Bad Bet by Putin last year that he could use Russian energy supplies to limit Western Europe's support for Ukraine Oops. European Governments instead of tempering their support for Kiev moved rapidly to find new sources of natural gas and oil. You know what we really ought to do is build more nuclear power plants. That's a phenomenal energy source, but people are weenie babies about that because you know I don't want a power plant in my backyard I mean I get that.

I wouldn't live an extra nuclear power plant either. So I mean I can't blame that, but you got to build them somewhere most Russian gas flows to Europe have stopped after initial jump Global Gas prices have fallen sharply. Mosca now has it will cut oil production. You know it's funny and it shows you how worthless a Moscow's attempts to control the oil Market are It seems like any time oil said or Moscow says they're going to cut oil production oil prices do nothing.

In other words: I think Moscow thinks that the oil prices you know are going to Surge after they say well, we'll cut production and everybody's just like whatever that's Russia being Russia I Really think that's almost how this this bric currency piece is is being understood. It's just quite frankly, it's Russia being Russia it's It's not that big of a deal. Uh now, uh, what is a big deal though? As we continue with this story, here is uh, the fact that you can get life insurance in as little as five minutes by going to Kevin.com Life and take a look at this Stream Yard which is the platform that I use to bring you my daily content every single day. For over the last two years I've been using Stream Yard to help me produce content and live stream to you.

They are now a sponsor of the channel so you can go to Metcaven.com Stream Yard learn more about them. Uh, it costs you nothing to use my link of course paid promotions. It costs you nothing to use my link but it would be a way of saying thank you to the content you get here. So take a look at Stream Yard Anyways, keep going as uh.

As a result, the government's energy Revenue fell by nearly half in the first two months of this year compared to last year with a budget deficit deepening the fiscal Gap ahead of 34 billion in the first two months, the equivalent of more than 1.5 percent of the country's total out economic output output is forcing Moscow to dip into the Sovereign wealth fund. Basically, they're liquidating money just to stay alive. Right now, we're not going to read this all word for word, but I think the the obvious impact here is: uh, we are. Uh, we're looking at at Russia that's that's essentially lashing out uh, over the fact that their oil revenues are drying up.

Here, You can see on the left side, oil and gas revenues drying up. The federal budget is negative retail trade Uh Is is also under its its 100 base index, so you're down about six seven percent over here. Fallen Exports tight labor market has increased government spending and worsening inflation risks. Russia's inflation was around 11 uh in February compared with February of last year.

Uh, so so look I mean you've you've got issues you've got. Uh, we're that. Russian billionaire who was interviewed was dreaming of competing with uh Elon Musk SpaceX Yeah, Oops, Uh, well and this goes sort of into a little bit more background on the billionaire here. So, but I think the point is this idea about this? this Brics currency or whatever whatever man, bring it on.

But really I mean learn the less. study the Euro if you want to be Cons: and look I I I'm really simplifying this. I Actually I spent years studying uh, the collapse of the Euro because that was that was a lot of what I had to write papers on in in college. Uh, and uh, you know, I studied economics, accounting, political science at UCI Corporate Finance All these things and the Euro was such a big subject at the time because while I was going to school, the crisis was occurring and uh, I you know we even visited Europe and studied it there.

Uh, of course I was also born in Germany So visiting Europe is really fun. but um, but yeah, I think this is just nonsense I mean I appreciate it coming up and I think it's uh, it's it's good to talk about. but really, you know if somebody's gonna break Heaven the bricks are going to replace their US dollars. Stop worrying about it if anything.

I think it's just good ammunition for. But quite frankly, it doesn't surprise me that a lot of crypto papers are talking about it because the more fear there is that the dollar is going to lose its strength and that other countries are going to create their own currency. The first thing that happens is people start going. Well, this means crypto gonna go up.

Oh well, yeah, to some extent that that is kind of what it. what happens now. One of the neat things about Bitcoin is it's actually been resting on 28 000, uh, 200-ish which is a pretty important threshold here, so we'll see if BTC can hold. But you know after after we realize how much manipulation there potentially is from Binance, it makes me a little nervous.

but uh, that's not to say I'm not a big fan of longer term. What What blockchain could bring us? I think I've said for years, big fan of blockchain Technology Not so much of a fan of the order books yet and the order flows I think they're still too easy to manipulate. So anyway, that is my thought on this Brix question again I appreciate you bringing it up I think it's wonderful I think you even donated money here to to bring that question. It was fantastic.

So hopefully this was um, this was useful to you. What is this? Uh, 247 years ago, the founders of the Us rebelled against the theft of money taxation by the Central Bank of England 137 years later, the same owners of that of that's the whole thing. look uh, you know it's it's uh. I I think we've made our case here.

uh and uh and and uh. We don't need to go through some of the arguments again here, but this is an interesting one though here. This uh, this comment here from Ronald Trust in Central Bank hasn't worked out for the average person. it's destined to fail.

Well see: I would question where you are evaluating what people's trust is in, uh, in central banks. and quite frankly, if you look at inflation expectations from the consumer, it certainly appears as though the consumer is not as terribly worried about the dollar as anybody in the finance. Community seems to be. It also seems like the average consumer doesn't actually feel like they're in a recession.

Given that they're mostly spending through this recession, it seems like most people are just going on about their lives as usual. mostly because they probably built up enough financial strength during Covid that they can so good for them so. But anyway, that is the end of our bricks segment and fun. All right, let's uh, let's hit another topic here.

Let's do some economic catalysts, eh? All right? Uh uh. Ketoki here? All right. We got a few standby for the economic catalyst standby. Go.

We need Morgan Freeman to help us Shanbar. Well, over the next two weeks we have a lot of catalysts coming up. Let's talk about exactly what dates you should be paying attention to will specifically take a look at jobs. A CPI Let's look at some pre uh, and early projections for some of these numbers.

If they're out, we've got a Jolts report coming out. Let's see what some of the surveys are for this. Let's go through all of this. Do keep in mind that on April 4th we will, uh, really be starting another earning season.

Uh, so April 4th Stay tuned. We're going to be looking at uh, some of the small companies has really, really nothing too big on April 4th just yet. But we're gonna get uh Simply Good Foods We'll get some steel reporting on, uh, on the fifth, on the sixth, which is next. Thursday In terms of record reporting, we'll get WD-40 Levi Strauss I Like, like looking at those kinds of companies to see where the consumer's heads are and where inflation is.

More Interestingly, we'll probably be on the 11th. We'll get CarMax Albertsons Are we still seeing those food prices move up? How about those used car prices? How are they affecting margins? Because it seems like used car prices are falling, but wholesale prices are actually Rising So dealers are potentially looking at negative numbers. You've got Rent the Runway on the 12th, you've got Delta Airlines Progressive Fastenal on the 13th. Then on the 18th is actually when you start getting the banks reporting.

That's when things are really going to get entertaining, especially since they're going to show us the numbers for the banking crisis. We'll have a lot of banking commentary. Between the 18th and the 20th, we'll get Bank of America Johnson Johnson Goldman Sachs Bank of New York Mellon. Those will report on Uh Tuesday Johnson and Johnson will be very interesting in terms of evaluating industrial inflation.

How's that wage price spiral? Again, that's the 18th. Then of course we get our leading tech company. We get Netflix also on the 18th on the 19th. Then we get into like the Morgan Stanley's the Citizens Financial IBM Zions Bank America can express on Thursday with Dr Horton and Nokia as well as Blackstone and uh and and Associated bancorps.

So we'll be getting a lot of financial information. really. The week of the 18th I think more interesting for next week is going to be the Jobs report. So really, probably for the next week we're going to be mostly having uh or we'll mostly be putting earnings on the table and paying a little less attention to earnings for next week.

It'll be more fascinating to see what happens with jobs. So let's take a look at what we've got on the third, which is tomorrow we'll get ISM Manufacturing and prices paid. Surveys survey suggests that prices paid will come down slightly to 51.1 that is still in the expansion territory, but down from 51.3 in the prior. We'll get uh some commentary on ISM employment.

Remember, this is the Institute for supply side Management. This is really sort of what comes before Consumer Price Inflation, right? We'll get manufacturing pmis on uh Monday morning as well. Uh, those are the manufacturing purchase manager Industry numbers. Expecting slight contraction there at 49.3 construction spending is expected to be flat month over month.

On the fourth, we'll get Factory orders expecting those to be down half of a percent. We'll also on the fourth be getting the jolts that is the job openings and labor turnover survey. That number has consistently been above 10 million. That is regularly a surprised to the upside, the last release was at about that 10.824 million.

The next survey is for a 10.5 handle I'd write that one down. that'll be on the fourth 10.5 stocks likely to move on the jolts. And of course if we get a big move on ISM Prices paid. Uh To the upside, there could be some downside risk in in stocks.

On the fifth, we'll be getting the S P Services PMI Purchases Managers index. That'll be very important because obvious nicely, most folks expect that inflation is stickiest in the service sector that is expected to come in at a match for the prior release of last month. So February and March expected to match at 53.8 and that is again the same as a prior release. Then on the fifth, we'll also be getting the Ism prices I paid.

This is Uh, this is the services prices paid. So on Monday we get ISM Manufacturing prices paid and on Tuesday we'll get ISM Services prices paid. No forecast yet for that. On Thursday the 6th, we will be getting continuing jobless claims.

We're expecting those to come in at 200 000. they've regularly been at about 200 000 for Uh for new claims and continuing claims. The prior release sat at about 1.689 million for continued unemployed individuals. That number shrank last time a little bit.

We'll see how it comes out uh, this month, then uh and and before we keep going down this list here. Obviously I should always remind you that on the 12th the prices will be going up for the lifetime access on the courses on building your wealth. Check that out, link down below or go to Metcaven.com join. You can also just go to meet Kevin.com and you'll see sort of, uh, everything that you can learn about.

Whether it's house hack life insurance, you can get in as little as five minutes at Metcaven.com life 12 free stocks with Weeble at Metcaven.com free of course. These create promotions this being brought to you by Streamyard Metkevin.com Stream Yard to learn how I bring these videos to you. So check all those links out down below. We're going to meet Kevin.com to learn more where you can also learn about my ETF Okay, so then we've got on.

Uh, the seventh. We're going to be looking at that change in non-farm payroll. This is our jobs report we'll also be getting. We should be getting ADP on Wednesday Let me look at ADP First ADP is expecting.

That's the private version of the jobs report. We're looking at about a 210 000 expectation down from 242 000 jobs. That's a Wednesday for the ADP report. and then Friday we'll be getting the change in non-farm payroll that is looking like 240 is the survey.

The last payroll report brought us in at 311 000. we now expect to sit at 240 000. So nice sort of shrinkage in that jobs growth obviously coming off those crazy numbers we had in January probably heavily due to seasonal adjustments where we were sitting around 500 000 job gains. However, we will also be very closely looking at average hourly earnings average hourly earnings in the prior release came in at 0.2 percent.

The survey now says 0.3 percent. That is a little bit of a bump up to an annualized rate of 3.6 percent for average hourly earnings. It's a little aggressive. We'd like to see that come in soft.

Then of course, the next data set that we'll really be waiting for is the CPI report. We do have some surveys for CPI first though. on the 10th we'll be getting a wholesale trade month over month. and we don't even have a survey for that.

And we'll be getting wholesale inventories. Uh, no survey for that either. That'll be on the 10th. On the 11th, we'll get small business out optimism.

And then there we go. It is. April 12th, April 12th by the way, is also a day we'll be getting the Fomc meeting minutes. So what is the forecast for CPI month over month for March Keep in mind that March will have a lot of funky expectations given we had a banking crisis and potentially reduced spending during the banking crisis CPI month over month in March For the data release on April 12th is looking like it's expected to be down from the prior report of 0.4 month over month 2.3 percent.

That would be good point Five percent. Uh, it was the prior release for Core month over month that's expected to shrink to 0.4 However, the year over year number. uh, not clear yet. The prior release was six percent.

No survey on that. Yep, However, year over year, Core could potentially Accelerate from point or 5.5 to 5.6 That wouldn't be great. Uh, the next day on the 13th, we'll also be getting PPI numbers we do not yet have surveys for those with the exception of month-over-month final demand producer price inflation expected to be flat at zero percent. so those are the catalysts for the next two weeks.

Obviously, the most important are going to be jobs. so you should mark your calendar for the following things. Okay, Mark these are the things I would be marking my calendar for April 4th, 10 A.m Eastern Time Joltz Report April 7th, 5, 30 A.m I will be live streaming to meet Kevin report at that time, you're welcome to join Uh 5 30 a.m on the 7th jobs. Then I would write down April 12th expiration of Meet Kevin's coupon code for the amazing programs with lifetime access on building your wealth specifically the bundle for zero to million at Real Estate Investing and Stocks and Psychology of Money which comes with my trade alerts as well.

Then CPI Obviously, you want to write that down, that's on the 12th at 5 30 a.m on the 12th of April So those are some of the catalysts that we're really going to be paying attention to over the next, Uh, over the next two, uh, uh, two weeks here, those are going to be quite critical. Uh, and uh. right after these catalysts, we'll actually be going into banking earnings. Uh, and uh, understandably, so there'll be a lot of curiosity in terms of okay, how are things getting affected through banking earnings? So we'll be paying heavy attention to making earnings, so stay tuned for that.

But this gives you a catalyst breakdown of what to expect over the next two weeks. If any of those catalysts make you nervous, get life insurance in as little as five minutes. remember Lauren and I use it. It is so easy to Apple pay for it I Always remember people like oh, you should have life insurance and like no problem.com life and you can get it.

It's so great. Even so, Sofa uses it. think about that as a pitch. Sofa recommends the same company as Metcaven.com Life, so it just goes to show they're a phenomenal, phenomenal partner.

big, big, big fan of uh, working with them and I'm a customer of theirs as well. Uh, just like in the customer of Stream Yard, which is what's bringing you this video today at Kevin.com All right. Next up, Kevin is my MF man, but your thoughts are going against the heads of entire five countries. Fantastic points nonetheless.

Man, these five countries can suck it. I'm just kidding. no I mean look, obviously these countries are going to be big players. Uh, over the next uh, decades.

Uh I I Would not bet against China but I'm not going to bet on China either. I'm going to bet on America I'm going to bet on American PP That's what I want I don't want Chinese PP I want American PP I think American Pricing power is much larger. All right next. Okay, so next uh, we've actually got.

oh, this should be. uh, this should be pretty interesting. So the next piece that I'd like to cover is the sticky left tail. Yeah, all right, let's talk about our left tail risk.

Come by for the left tail if you don't know what that means. don't worry. I will explain. Okay, so I need Goldman Sachs We just organize this really quickly.

Goldman Sachs Then we need it's The Economist I have Goldman Sachs The Economist That's the credit crunch thesis. We're not doing any. Morgan Stanley's here. No Okay, oh, are we doing City in this? City No, that'll be the next one.

Okay, oh, this will be easy. Then it'll be a nice little short one, but it'll be good. Okay, good. Okie dokie.

Oh yeah. all right, this one's cool. Okay I'm going to start out of order on this one, but I think it's very a very great piece. Oh, the banking crisis.

Um right. Okay, all right. here we go. So next up we are going to talk thinking crisis and left tail risk.

Yeah, okay in this video we need to talk about the banking crisis. Not only do we need to talk about the banking crisis and how things are actually unfolding, but what I'd like to do is look at what the Economist tells us about left tail risks along with Goldman Sachs Now left at tail risks or lack of growth risks. Think about it like a bell curve. Okay, if in the middle, we're growing steady, if on the far right, we are hyperinflating and things are, you know, basically taking off in such a way that we have to get Paul Volckert.

The left tail risk is really that uh oh, we have damaged the economy too much. The Federal Reserve has gone too far in hiking and we are going to be in a dirty and deep and dark recession. Well, in this segment, we've got two important pieces to cover one. I'm going to give you the Economist's conclusion on whether or not we are going to face a deep, dark and dirty recession.

The Economist By the way, one of my favorite Publications and I think they are very, very good. Just know if you read The Economist they don't like Donald Trump Company lean left but they have very very good economic Insight Anyway and notice you can still like people who have different political opinions than you. That's very important. But first, let's look at Goldman Sachs because Goldman Sachs has uh, some some neat look uh, or a nice neat look.

Should I say uh into exactly what's going on with uh with the banking crisis Goldman Sachs uh obviously is uh, a finite massive Financial partner It's one of the biggest 10 banks that we have uh in the country. It's also a huge financial partner for um for for Apple they back the Apple credit card so they're getting a lot of data on consumers. So when Goldman Sachs tends to give us some insights I like to pay attention. although I don't take everything at face value of what what these individuals like to say because uh, they could be wrong, but then again, everybody can.

So, but it's good to look at perspective. So Speaking of perspective, let's hop into it Right now. there we go. and let's throw up the coupon code.

There we go. Okay, fantastic. So first let's start here on the banking crisis and then we'll talk left tail risk. So this segment was very interesting.

They say here further signs of stabilization in the banking system. Although money market funds continue to see large institutional inflows, the pace declined by about roughly half of that scene in the prior week. Now we've talked about this before: this idea that the banking crisis is stabilizing. You're actually seeing small Bank deposits level out.

In other words, they kind of. these were small Bank deposits, then they fell and now you're kind of getting this leveling of small Bank deposits. It really feels like the banking crisis has slowed or come to a halt. Goldman Sachs Here tells us that even a pace of money market movements has slowed.

We've talked about this yesterday about how discount borrower discount window borrowing of the FED has also slowed and that really the Fed's lending to Bridge Banks via the bank term funding program. In other words, by the FED pivot. Although I don't really think that's the FED pivot, it was just really a tool that they deployed is also stable. And what they talk about here is really this this idea that last week we were talking about how this Scramble for dollars had gone Global Remember when I came do from a ski resort talking about how the Fed was injecting liquidity via new daily liquidity swap operations on a Sunday Uh, though we expected it would be one-off In other words, we're really saying look, we we had this sort of one-off Crisis where everybody was freaking out.

but so far every indication of struggles is waning. The demand for the dollar is waning internationally. This is not to be confused with the Petro dollar. Okay, I'm talking emergency lending dollars This Is This different different topic.

Okay, we can talk about The Disappearance of the dollar in a different video. People keep bringing that up, but it's just not that important right now. Uh so discount window borrowing Bank term funding facility, money market movement small Bank movement and a dollar movement all relatively stable. This is actually phenomenal.

Uh, Insight right? We want to pay attention to stability in the banking crisis. Uh, and so really, the question then is okay. Well, how is the banking crisis really going to affect us? So let's see here: North America United States Yield response to near-term news Potentially asymmetric, Our Baseline view is that credit tightening resulting from the current banking turmoil should be contained. Listen to this.

So many people are saying. That said, our economy is going to go into a deep dark recession because Oh my gosh, What about all of the credit tightening? Oh my gosh. Kevin Quickly change the banner to the paid promotion on life insurance. Met Kevin.com Life because everything's going to hell.

The reality is no, the reality. Frankly is no, the banking crisis is not that big of a deal. I Was having actually a slight debate about this yesterday. somebody was asking me but Kevin like big Banks they're going to be forced uh, to to like lend less and I'm like, how many times have you gone to a big bank for a loan in real estate? Uh, and if you're not familiar with going to Big banks for loans, you know that you don't go to big banks for loans.

You usually go to smaller banks for loans. And then there's a thought. Oh, but they're going to regulate smaller Banks More right? No, Guess what the Biden Administration just talked about. They talked about how we're not going to punish the big Banks because they've already been punished.

Well, then we're going to punish the small, right? No, because that's not fair to the small Banks So whom are we going to punish them? Let's punish the medium Banks I Kid you not, you can't make this stuff up by the administration Now wants to punish the medium-sized Banks and Titan Landing standards and medium-sized Banks and I Believe what this is all this is going to do is basically turn the medium-sized Banks the more closer to systemically important banks that 250 mil a bill threshold rather. Uh, and you're going to see the medium Banks become more regulated like the larger Banks so we don't have another Silicon Valley Bank Which basically just means the smaller banks are going to be like, hey, we just had a lot of deposit outflows. You know what that means? We're going to have to get more creative to bring customers back. How about better mortgages, business loans? You want rental property lines of credit? Again, what could we come up with to bring customers back? They will come up with an endless Suite of lending products and I believe you already know this.

So this I don't want to sound redundant. You already know that I am of the belief that we are in a Nike Swoosh style recovery, That will We we now I believe are in the beginning of what will likely be a 10-year bull run. My opinion. But guess what I think is going to add fuel to the fire of that bull run? It is none other than small Bank lending taking off to support a return of deposits to small Banks And they're going to do that by enticing you with with cheap loans and beautiful sexy loans, Beautiful curvy, delicious loans that you can't get anywhere else.

And and we'll be tempted by those and drawn in by these delicious loans and we'll just have to go back to the small Banks and re-engage relationships. And then you know what the small banks are going to do. They're going to say hey, look, we know you have concerns about the FDIC limits of 250k but you know what? Look, we have made a menu for you. If you open up a discount and this count and discount and this account and this account we could get you up to three million dollars of FDIC coverage.

Just have multiple different business accounts and multiple different LLC accounts and multiple different accounts of businesses and all of your deposits will be protected. In fact, if I was a small bank right now, that's exactly what I would be doing. if I was a small Bank I'd be thinking about exactly how I'm going to milk FDIC for everything it's worth. I would start LLC formation within my bank and I would be like dude, let's just create another LLC and then you're going to put 250 into that subsidiary and 215 to that subsidiary of your business and guess what? we'll basically make it easy and seamless for you to always be FDIC Insurance In the meantime, you want some sweet, sexy, delicious loans because guess what? the bacon medium Banks ain't going to be able to provide for you, but we can I'm telling you, it's it's like the the game is just hilarious I I Strongly believe in it and I actually think it's a good thing because it'll contribute to to a bull market.

Uh and uh. and yes. Is risky financing risky? Absolutely. Uh.

But worst case scenarios: small, non-systemically important Banks Go kaput and who really cares? Uh, and and the people who bank at those banks will will be enticed to be at those Banks under the promise of FDIC insurance and then guess who's really going to pay for the small Banks taking risk the medium and big Banks Once again, it's corporate socialism, folks foreign, so the banking crisis really isn't that bad. But anyway, we'll listen to this. The credit tightening will likely not be large enough to push the economy into recession or Force the FED to ease aggressively to the extent markets appear to be anticipating, even in a probability weighted sense. Why do they talk like this? They talk so complicatedly.

Basically they're saying yo, credit crisis ain't gonna be at bad. Don't worry, people are overblowing credit crisis. That's all they needed to say. But I'll go back to their words.

Even in a proper you know what, it's even at a probability weight. It's so where we ascribe increased odds to a recessionary outcome. We Believe Yields have declined too much. Who writes this trash? This is basically saying people have fled to bonds.

Despite this, we do not think fading this pricing via duration shorts is particularly attractive in the short term. In other words, uh, don't Even though we don't think that, uh, even though we think that bonds are going to fall and rates are going to go up, it's probably not a good idea to short. So even though we say this, don't bet on it. Uh, by contrast, restoring full confidence and assessing the impact of diminished credit provisioning could take time.

This is something we do hear about as well. The lag that it takes to actually get any kind of credit tightness. this is something we do regularly see is is this idea that it could take potentially six to 12 months. But take a look at this banking turmoils distributional effects on rates.

The evolution of the options implied skew of risks to interest rates has largely mirrored our own views, though with some differences in magnitude on the front end. We believe the recent events significantly reduce the odds of a much higher terminal rate, though our Baseline projection is roughly about 30 bips above the market we Inc but the increase in probability of deep Cuts is is probably a little too optimistic. In other words, investors are clearly much more concerned about recessionary left tail risks and that's why investors are pricing in all of these. Cuts But the reality is, the economy has been incredibly resilient and that's where we have to get into the next pieces on how resilient the economy has been.

I mean consider what the Economist says JP Morgan has some insight into this as well. Morgan Stanley Uh, Citibank gives us some credit card data. We'll go through all of this quickly here, but what does The Economist tell us the Economist I Wrote this down here because I thought it was. it was a fantastic piece here.

The Economist says the current activity index released by Goldman Sachs is steady. So even through the banking crisis, we haven't actually really seen current activity fall. the purchaser's manager index, which would be a leading indicator of stress that Manufacturing Factory steady weekly measures of GDP steady. Is it really? Maybe just that we're too early to see the recession at the moment? Well, Ipsos finds that American confidence in the economy during the banking crisis is actually growing.

Maybe it's rigged, but the Economist is like, why are people so blase and I actually have a very interesting idea about why people are so blase. Potentially because people are like dude, we just went through War basically with Russia Not only did we go through war with Russia, but we went through a pandemic. We made lots of money during the last two years, so we have a lot of extra stability. More stability than we previously had in 2019.

That's not to say there still isn't poverty, and there's still aren't food insecure people, which is terrible and the government should do something about that. But in many regards, the government as a whole is relatively incompetent. And and that's like if you work for the government, I believe in you as an individual, they don't believe in the entity totally. You know, in total.

Uh, the the sum of its parts are not greater than the parts itself. anyway. So uh, point being. uh yeah, I Think there's actually a really good chance the reason people are so indifferent right now is because they have money to just continue to spend and like the things that are occurring.

At this point, we kind of just roll our eyes to. it's just like okay, Putin's yapping again. All right, we're over it. Another covid variant.

All right. Really like you expect me to get like excited or agitated. Now you think I'm gonna go sign up for your life insurance just because you mentioned another covet variant Kevin that's racial thinking. although I would like it if you try checked out Metcaven.com Life I Think it'd be pretty cool.

It's a paid promotion, but they're pretty awesome. But anyway. um, really, the resilience is is very, very clear here. Now let's look at what JP Morgan has to say about this because they have a phenomenal piece on this as well.

Let's throw them up on screen here. They're one of these is is the better option I Gotta label the stream yard. Lets you label these in a pretty cool way. That was the Moscow piece we covered I can't figure it out Now that's did you know the best example the stream Yard right now Kevin You're screwing it up.

There we go. but that's just my fault. I'm just pushing the wr