We're going to cover a ton in this video including what is the Federal Reserve going to do on Wednesday Are they going to go for a 50 basis point hike? Are they going to go 25? Are they going to go zero? What does it mean for you? Are your credit lines going to get Frozen We're going to talk about that in this video. We're going to start by talking about Shadow tightening. What does that actually mean for you as an individual investor? What does that mean for the greater economy? Are there any stocks that could potentially get through this era? We'll talk about that as well. Let's get started.

Remember, this video is brought to you by the programs of building your wealth linked down below expiring March 22nd Get life insurance in as little as five minutes By going to Metcaven.com life you get Apple pay or Android pay and go to Metcavin.com free to get 12 free stocks Link down below. Let's go well folks, we gotta talk about the shadow tightening that is happening by the Federal Reserve and how the Federal Reserve could actually lower interest rates while Financial conditions are still so tight that we could potentially be pushed into a recession while the Federal Reserve is still cutting rates that would pay homage to those individuals who say ah, see Fed pivots when they break something and then things just get worse. Now it still remains to be determined whether or not what the Federal Reserve is doing now is a a pivot via the buy the FED pivot facility the 300 billion dollars. They basically just pivot printed.

Is that a pivot or is it a U-turn Because generally pivots are bad. u-turns are good. Well, we'll probably know on the 22nd when we hear from Jerome Powell, but for now we get a study the potentially dangerous implications of Shadow tightening and Shadow Federal Reserve policy. That's what we're going to talk about in this video.

Now Two things that you have to know before we go into these pieces from Barclays Number one is you have to understand what this chart is. This is a chart known as the Financial Conditions Index. It is a chart that is put together by Goldman Sachs and because it's an index, it means it has different components in it. One of the components is stock prices.

One of them is bond prices. Then you have lending tightness and and other variables that basically combined. Tell you how tight are Financial conditions in America right now and it's very useful because it gives us a heads up on what is the Fed potentially likely to do on the 22nd of March or going forward. See the Federal Reserve Loves looking at this chart because when this chart goes down like it did over here in January and the financial conditions start going down while inflation is not falling as fast as it should, what is the Federal Reserve Do they come out and Hawk they start talking about how hey, you know we need to tighten more now.

Sometimes the market does this themselves. Sometimes it's driven by the Fed's commentary. When we add Jackson Hole we saw a massive burst of Goldman Sachs Financial conditions, index or the index here and that's because Jackson Hole was really a time where Jerome Powell ended up coming up and saying hey, Financial conditions are too weak. We've got a lot of work left to do on inflation and so we're gonna have to hike higher for longer.

And guess where on this chart? where do you think Jackson Hole was at? Where Jerome Powell basically told us we got to do more. Where do you think it is? It was August 26th which is basically right there so you could see how either Jerome Powell can verbally tighten Financial conditions with what he says or the markets can tighten Financial conditions When we got the January Jobs report, retail sales report, and all the reports that were really hot for January look what happened Financial conditions went from here straight up. This is what the Federal Reserve is trying to manipulate because the higher this chart is, the lower inflation expectations. Go.

This is the inflation's Expectations chart and look at what's happened over the last few days as uh, Financial conditions have remained tight and as banks have started to fail. Look right behind me there. look at that massive plummet, hugely plummet and break even inflation rates. This is the five-year Break Even chart, which is fascinating because this is exactly what the FED wants.

The FED wants this chart going down and in addition to this chart going down, what do they want? They want this chart staying elevated. As long as those two things are true, they could actually reduce interest rates. and that's interestingly interestingly, interest rates what we're going to talk about in these pieces now. These pieces are phenomenal.

Two really good Barclays pieces here on Shadow Tightening I'm gonna go through both of them because they're really, really important and you've got to understand these shadow tightening aspects if you care about the FED at all. which I think most of you do, and if most of you care about the FED then you'll love the programs on building your wealth. Link down below with a coupon expiring after Jpow talks next week and 22nd, so check that out. link down below: January or March 22nd expiry.

Awesome perspective and lifetime access. Guaranteed to get the best price. so you buy today. you're guaranteed the price will never be lower in the future.

Otherwise, email and get an adjustment. although generally the price just Trends up. it's because we keep adding value to it anyway, and anybody who buys keeps getting that lifetime access to Value. So what do we have here? Rate investors are worried that credit will be curtailed, which could be a drag on growth with this inflationary impetuses.

Okay, so let me actually you know what. Let's go ahead and start with this: Shadow inventory piece because the other one gives us a little a sort of more additional commentary. Let's start with this one. This one explains a little bit better.

So uh, this is the risk of Shadow tightening. And they start with this commentary. They talk about how, uh, how crazy the market has shifted they say one week ago following hawkish commentary about Powell a 50 basis point hike was basically seen as a foregone conclusion. A done deal along with much higher terminal rates I mean we were talking about going to six percent now.

all of a sudden, all of that has U-turned and uh, hedge funds and systemic strategies were short bonds and they got F'd over the last two weeks like really badly. They were super unprepared for what ended up being one of the biggest and quickest Bond rallies on record. Bond prices up as people flee to safety. Bond yields down.

Remember when we saw bond yields Crash From like, uh, you know, 4.5 percent on the two year to like 3.8 It was insane. And when we were watching some of this live, it was just insane how quickly some of these yields were falling. The 10-year went from like 4.1 to 3.4 That's like an 80 BP Plummet. It's insane.

Massive changes, right? So huge volatility. So what do we have over here? While all of this volatility was happening and I thought this was actually a fantastic point for the stock market, They say here looking at sector flows, they say that falling markets rarely bring good returns. Uh, for for Equity investors. However, because Equity investors have such low risk exposure right now.

which is a fancy way of saying so many people right now are so heavily exposed to cash and bonds and not the stock market, you actually didn't see that much pain in the stock market. And I wrote good point on this because really, if we look at some of our stocks this last week should have been absolute hell with this banking disaster. And look at QQQ The Technology Index. What the hell it's like on the average candlesticks up the last four day trading days? look at that.

we're totally holding Fibonacci Support: We're holding 200-day moving average support. Because Why? Well, because people are so bearishly invested, you can literally have five bank failures in a week and you still hold support on the NASDAQ Why? Well, because a potentially QE but B Because people are so bearishly uh positioned. But now they talk about a new set of systemic risk concerns being introduced. Banks will no longer be looked at as the pure and simple beneficiaries of rising uh, yields and potentially the only winners of sticky inflation instead.

Uh, they could basically be failing and and you could see the banking sector continue to trade down. But what's more important than just worrying about the banks? Well, the potential for this Shadow tightening. And before they they go into this idea of Shadow tightening, they just quickly, uh, give you this. This sum up here to say hey, look central banks right now, uh, are very concerned about the contagion that could occur from these Banks right in potential bank failures.

And the first thing they tell us is right here. This is where we get into Shadow tightening. One corollary of the volatility in Banks is that lenders May tighten lending standards even further in order to protect themselves. This would act as a de facto tightening of policy, helping slow the economy and raising the likelihood of a recession.

So think about that for a moment as fears are established of banks failing and people are positioned pretty bearishly already. What you have is people pulling on their purse strings more. That is a form of tightening. Yeah, we don't want to be in stocks anyway.

Again, if people were in stocks heavily in stocks, there's no way in hell. over the last two weeks, the NASDAQ should not have broken these supports. But it didn't because people are so bearishly positioned. right now.

the people who are in stocks are like give me more, Come on I need to I need another buy the dip opportunity So which is fantastic I mean I I Increased my exposure to end face like three times this last week. It's almost at my load. The truck Price: Target By the way, when this sucker was 300, and who knows when this sucker was 330, I'm like way overpriced, this sucker's going down. It could go as low as 160 bucks.

it was like 180 yesterday. I'm like, yes, yes, yes, we're getting closer. Great company. It's just a bad time for for them.

But anyway, so people pull on the purse strings of their cash. But it's not just them. it's also Banks who potentially tighten lending standards. And now that's actually interesting because remember Silicon Valley Bank gave a lot of loans to startups with loose terms.

Well, that made it easy for them to hire people and spend money. Well, that's fantastic, But it's also inflationary. Well, that bank has now failed. So who picks up? Well, maybe the big Banks But the big banks have substantially tighter lending requirements and they're likely to tighten their lending standards.

meaning less inflationary impetus instead more deflationary impetus. Take a look at this. Here's a piece that Zero Hedge tweeted out. They wrote: banking crises are followed by tighter lending standards.

Duh. Tighter tightening lending standards for small businesses versus the FED discount window usage. Okay, so simple. blue line goes up means banking pain.

Uh oh. dark blue line dark blue Go up. More banking pain. Light blue line Go up.

more tightening of the economy. What do we have? Well, you have that tightening of 2008. You have the tightening of 2020. And now you're starting to see that Titan here.

But notice how quickly that discount window usage has run up. It's possible that these lending standards will tighten substantially soon. This, by the way is guess what practically happens in a shadow tightening environment. You've heard me say this before during Financial crises.

But if you have a HELOC a lock, uh, like a margin line, something that you want to preserve Capital to all of these could end up getting Frozen When we go into these sorts of banking crises environments, credit lines can tend to get Frozen And so what do sophisticated investors tend to do in these sorts of environments? They take them out and leave them in cash. You have to be careful, especially with margin. This is the one that I would be very, very cautious of. What will people often do is they say look, I'm going to prepare by taking out as much cash as possible.

So everywhere I could take out cash, I'm going to take out cash and I'll leave it in cash even on margin lines. Sometimes people will take out cash and they leave it in cash. The cool thing is, when you have margin taken out in the form of cash, you have that backstop, right? So it actually reduces your risk of getting margin called. With a HELOC or line of credit, there's generally no Margin Call I Really recommend staying away from margin debt, but some people will take the risk.

I Just caution to leave it in cash because you want to be able to survive potentially the really bad times, right? So what a lot of people do is when lending standards tighten is they take out their home equity lines of credit? They Park them in a different bank. So think about this way: if you have a home equity line of credit at Chase, you take the money out of Chase and you put it into like Bank of America. So that way you have the cash and Chase camp like pay off their credit line so you might not necessarily have to do that. You could potentially just move that into a different bank account.

a Chase But if that credit line gets shut down, if you already have the money out, they'll just keep charging you interest. That's okay, they're not going to call your loan doing payable on generally a home equity line of credit read: obviously your loan terms uh, on a margin line. They could. They could call the cash back, but consider that, uh, a tightening lending environment uh, could be occurring.

and then there could be some real practical implications to you. But in addition to this, when you see a tighter or sort of de facto tightening environment, you could potentially actually see the Federal Reserve cut rates. This is why you're seeing central banks start lowering rate expectations. In fact, they say here we find that fear oh well, they say that so repricing lower and Central Bank rates expectations is understandable.

but Barclays thinks it's too aggressive at this point. In other words, this idea that the FED is going to cut rates 100 basis points by the end of the year. They think it's too extreme because they actually think a lot of these fears are overblown. But it is likely that banking Financial standards are going to tighten.

So they say, hey, look, we're looking at Classic indicators of mainstream bank stress like Ted spreads or Fra Ois overnight interest rates, swap spreads. We're looking at these and we're not seeing any kind of massive systemic failure red flags, much like what we've seen in past episodes. Now who knows. Everybody always says oh, don't see it yet, don't see it yet And then everything sort of blows up in your face, right? But the point is, lending standards could tighten significantly.

basically doing the Federal Reserve's job for them. When the Federal Reserve has tight lending conditions, the FED could cut rates and we could still walk into a depressive environment. And that's because people just don't have access to credit anymore. Remember American Express is saying people are using their credit cards to basically spend through the recession? Great.

But what if those credit lines get limited and they can't spend through the recession anymore? It's going to be really interesting. but keep in mind the shadow tightening that's happening. It could actually lead to an equity rally. In my opinion.

Much in the shape of now there is a there is a bare side as well. So I'm not always giving you a bull side here. but in for this for the purposes of Barclays Opinion: I Think what they're describing is very consistent with this form of a Nike Swoosh style recovery. extremely quick Down Super volatile and extended long-term up.

That's my take, that's why I Think equities continue to Trend up because there's so much bearish positioning right now already. Is it possible the bear story could take over where we have a multi-year-long depression? Yes. and we're going to cover that in a different segment because this segment's gone on for too long. But pay attention to the Goldman Sachs Financial conditions index.

As long as that level stays, High The FED is likely to be willing to lower rates or give us a lower path forward. Consider that the Dot Plot of the Federal Reserve comes out on the 22nd. Now that's actually fascinating because the Dot Plot could end up coming in soft. Look at this.

Barclays in their second piece says here: we would expect the Federal Reserve to downplay their Dot Plot citing heightened uncertainty about the path of monetary policy and investors want to gauge how the FED is going to Balance Financial stability and ultimately the risks of inflation. This is why they suggest hey, look, we know the market is pricing in a lower term rate, but this could really create a credit crunch which ultimately becomes a big drag on display disinflation right? or creates a drag on inflation. I Should say it creates disinflationary impulses and in other words, this Shadow tightening really just amplifies what the rate is of the Federal Reserve So the Federal Reserve rate could be four percent, but with Shadow tightening, it could feel like eight percent. And this is fascinating.

So do consider that they mentioned Barclays uh ends up writing this bottom line suggesting Shadow tightening policy is likely being seen by investors as likely the equivalent of a few 25 bips of hikes in the future. I Actually feel like it's more I Think if we're at maybe four percent Shadow tightening could make it feel like eight percent. Uh, but this is that's going to be something of high debate. What do I think the Federal Reserve is actually going to do this coming Wednesday on the 22nd not only coupon expiration day but also Fomc day.

I Believe the Federal Reserve is going to go for a 25 basis point height. The reason I Think that is because they are going to send enough signals to the market with what is going on with not only their statement, their speech, but also the summary of economic projections. the market is pricing in a 25 BP hike. I Think we're gonna get that 25 BP hike.

We don't need every level of shock. We're not going to get 50. I Think there's zero chance of that. Uh, I Mean if that happened, it'd be crazy, then that would mean the FED is so worried about inflation, they don't care about crashing.

Banks I Think we're going to get 25. we're going to get forecasts that actually show sooner cuts from the FED We're going to want to dive through those forecasts. I Don't think we're going to get zero because that would also send signals that the banking crisis is way worse than we think and everybody should. Panic So stick with the 25.

Give us the steady Eddie We're expecting. let the markets digest all of the Nuance in the next Fomc meeting in May When we don't get another summary of economic projections, then you could go zero and pause and then let the market digest that. That's my take. And there is also the depression.

the Great Depression scenario. Out of all this tightening, which we'll again, we'll talk about in another segment. But I Think the bottom line for this segment here is the Federal Reserve could actually reduce rates going forward and we could still see a down drag in markets driven by lower earnings because of the lack of available borrowing. So how do you position yourself for that? Bottom line for you is twofold.

Number one: Consider what this means for your credit lines is it does it make sense to draw down on your credit lines Now before lending standards tighten and your credit lines get frozen. Number two: if you are investing, you probably want to be investing in what I call inflation resilient stocks. So you want to be looking for companies where people are still going to spend money, even if they don't have easy access to debt. In other words, where is that wealthier segment that might continue to spend through this recession? Where are they spending money? Is it going to be businesses spending on artificial intelligence? Is it going to be consumers who have a lot of money, maybe left over, who still want to invest in energy or electric vehicles, solar panels, or cars for their homes? I Don't know.

Usually when the housing market slows down, the first thing people do is they stop investing in their homes. which is bad for the solar industry. something we've been talking about for about a year. So consider that if you are investing in stocks.

I Think the big thing is, look for the recession resilient ones. That's my take things with pricing power. Uh, consider that credit lines could be getting Frozen and you might want to start putting away some cash from those credit lines. Yeah, you'll be paying interest in the meantime, but it's a consideration.

Uh, and and realize that even when the FED begins to cut rates, it doesn't necessarily mean we're going straight up to The Moon uh for for the stock market, that volatility will still be here, especially as we wait for what this loosening ends up meaning for the financial crisis, the actual recessionary impulse for earnings at companies, and then, of course, uh, the actual ability of individual companies to survive sell solar and we're having record numbers every month. I Think you're wrong here. I'm selling more than I ever have in my life. So many homeowners are going solar.

So solar is very interesting because and this is why I'm not betting against it I'm just cautious. Uh, for example, I still have an end phase position that I'm actually building up. And so there are two sides of this coin. coin.

Number one is people spend less on their homes when values go down. Okay, does that mean solar? Well, it probably almost certainly means Home Depot and Lowe's would have lower earnings because people might be doing fewer discretionary style remodels, right? But addition, in addition to that, you also have this potential idea that if you buy solar, you might save money on your electricity bills. And maybe that is the right thing to do in a recessionary environment because you're investing and lowering your monthly overhead. So Solar is this really interesting space where I actually think while you have this down pressure of people wanting to invest in their homes less, you also have this up pressure of people going.

well if we're in a recession, we want to save money. So let's buy solar. So you have this really weird Balancing Act which makes Solar very unique and we have not been through a recession before other than Covid which doesn't count where people have had to make that analysis like well, if this is longer term pain, maybe we want to lower our electricity costs and buy solar. and maybe we don't remodel the bathroom.

And so that's something where I think what you're saying is actually a very fair point and potentially real scenario that people might forego on the kitchen remodel. people might forego on the bathroom remodel, or forgo on whatever a remodel in their home, new flooring or whatever and end up buying solar panels now. Uh, I would like to? uh, sort of. just give a quick recommendation on solar.

In my opinion, you all know I'm a licensed financial advisor, but this is not personalized advice I don't know what your situation is, right, so you always have to evaluate ultimately these decisions yourself. But but my opinion is that if you're going to get solar panels, you should buy them. I think uh Power Purchase agreements and leases are very risky because they limit your liquidity in uh, in uh uh sale selling your property and so that's not good. Selling selling a property with Solar is very difficult because you're relying on somebody else to want to take over that contract and a lot of people don't understand that liability they're signing up for.

So I'd rather see own solar panels. So I personally have solar panels on my property I've got as many as I could possibly have on here. Uh I I have a I have an end phase battery as well I've got the end phase micro inverters. Big fan.

Saves me a lot of money. Was a fantastic investment. Somebody else here writes with a five dollar donation. Don't forget solar is a is big in the prepper Community I have it for that.

You have it for prepping. but living in Southwest Florida there are Savings in immediate Roi Nice. Well yeah, there's your World War III argument as well. How about financing them? Yes, that's okay.

that's okay. that's buying right? So financing is buying. Uh, that's that's the equivalent of buying. Uh, and so I'm okay with that.

You want to buy for the panels cash, pay firm with a credit line, pay for them with financing with with your company or whatever. Totally fine with me. It's the leases and ppas that I Generally caution people about. Uh so so a fair fair game there exactly.

If you buy solos, you have your own power grid goes down so you have to be careful about the idea about having your own power if the grid goes down. Uh and uh. The the idea here is you need to have the end phase iq8 micro inverters which I don't even have and so most solar panels actually won't work if the grid goes down. uh is they need to be connected to the grid to actually get it working which is kind of annoying.

Uh, but uh, the Iq8s will work with sunlight only. Exactly. So okay, that's a good little append there on uh on on solar so uh, that. but it's one of the reasons I'm also so bullish on end Faith But anyway, or get a Generac whole home Generac's a good one too I Like Generac Yes, end phase is set up to work off the grade through the new Iq8s, not the old micro inverters.