As always folks, we gotta cover the depression scenario. The Great Depression scenario of tightening Financial conditions the FED potentially you turning a massive Great Depression that will be worse than 2008 Michael Burry is calling for it that this is no different from the crash of 2000. No different from the great Financial crisis of 2008. Except we are walking into the Great Depression and in this video, we're going to cover institutional coverage on the not so benign Great Depression scenario that we could be facing.

Now, many of you know that I am not the biggest bear today. I was a mega bear in January of 2022. That was the perfect time to start being a bear today. I Am not a bear.

However, I like to pay attention to what the Bears are saying and that is the coverage that we are going to go into right here. First, we are going to start with a Jeffrey's letter on Greed and fear and then we will cover multiple other institutional pieces on the depression scenario following banking crisis. Here we go: Jeffrey says check out the programs on building a wealth link down below with an expiring coupon code on March 22nd. All right, we got that out of the way.

So the Silicon Valley Bank collapse is a hint of potentially massive financial problems building in the former boom areas of private equity and private Lending And unfortunately, the private Equity Market could lead to it. Collapsing could lead to a massive disinflationary impetus for our economy, and the impacts of that will be great. Let's analyze what some of those could look like. Take a look at this: The fact that credit the credit boom in the past cycle was in private lending or Shadow financing will mean that lags in monetary policy will prove to be even greater than normal.

This is to say that while in 2008, we had a boom in real estate, over the last decade, we had a boom in private lending known as Shadow financing. Like startup lending and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank shows us the potential first shoot to fall. But this does not mean there will be no impact for monetary typing. Rather, in a world where the U.S enters recession, Silicon Valley Bank will be seen as the first hint of problems to come in private.

Equity Just as the failure of New Century Financial in April of 2007 was the first hint of problems to come in subprime mortgages, they're comparing today to April 07, which means much more pain still ahead in this respect. 2022 was the year where U.S Equity suffered multiple contraction from monetary tightening. 2023 will be will be the year of earnings downgrades hitting the stock market. If the recession proves to be accurate and we do go into recession which we widely expect, this is now the key issue in financial markets.

2024 will be the year when markets will have to end up dealing with the emerging credit problems of the private Equity space. In other words, multiple compression 22 Earnings Compression 23 Private Equity Collapsed by 2024. that calls for Mega hell over the next two years and it really makes you want to make sure you have your life insurance up to date. Go to Metcaven.com Life.

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It's great in this respect. It's both amazing and an opportunity that the Leveraged Loans Price Index Leverage Loans is usually lending for riskier companies and there's an index that tracks a pain in this in this region and it's still only trading 6.2 percent below its recent High The Greed and Fear Index is basically recommending you short leveraged loans you can Google How to do that? But basically they're saying things about to hit the fan. They say this would be a goodest time as any. if the recession forecasts are accurate to jump into shorting, uh, leveraged loans and private equity and being prepared for the true pain that's coming because they believe that we are heading into a five quarter long recession folks, five quarters is 1.25 years.

In other words, if we go into a core a recession Q4 of 23, we could be in recession all throughout 2024.. this is scary. They also believe that unfortunate, unfortunately because inflation is remaining sticky, the FED is going to be in a very, very tough situation. They call Jerome Powell a wannabe Volcker.

They say his failed wannabe Volcker act has now put him in a pickle because inflation is not falling fast enough and we're in a financial crisis which we were not in this sort of financial crisis the last time around. Now, maybe we'll get some Clues on what happens on March 22nd. In terms of what Jerome Powell ends up deciding to do what is he forecast with the Dot Plot but he is in a pickle. And what does this potential pickle mean for the Bear case, What's the nightmare scenario? Well here it is.

T.S Lombard tells us what the nightmare scenario potentially looks like. So first they talk about how this cycle I hate The phrase is different. They talk about how this cycle is different because in this cycle, in many any, uh, many, so many institutions have talked about this. This cycle is different because it really what households are doing in this banking crisis is they're polling deposits out of Banks and they're buying treasuries.

And that's actually really interesting because that's what we did with House Hack as well. That's my real estate startup. Now that's it's important to know. By the way, that we are closing the funding round.

we may never have another found funding ground until we IPO for a house hack. We're closing that funding round on March 31st. Go to Househack.com to read the solicitation there. This video is not a solicitation while we are trying to do the non-accredited round at the same valuation probably for May or June.

We can't guarantee that'll actually happen because if the SEC doesn't give us a green light, we'll just start operating and we won't do a fundraise. So if you're accredited, you've got 12 days left to potentially get in on Househack. But anyway, what we did at Househack is we pulled most of the money that we had and we bought treasury bonds back in November. So we've been milking like seventy thousand dollars a month of just cash of revenue from treasury bonds.

Uh, uh. But thanks to having these treasury bonds? uh, instead of having them at Banks. But that's actually part of the reason why you're having a banking crisis is because money is going from bank accounts to treasuries. You actually didn't have that happen so much in Prior recessions and prior recessions.

Yeah, people sold stocks and spent less money, but they didn't flee into treasury bonds. But that's actually creating more banking stress this time around, which is quite interesting. On top of that, because the Federal Reserve is going through a quantitative tightening process except for this last week where they expanded a little bit by 300 billion dollars. Just the ditto: 300 billion dollars.

The fat is actually destroying money. It's the opposite of the money printer. You're vacuuming it up and lighting it on fire. The Fed's balance sheet, if it were constant, then the money that's going into buying treasuries would actually flow back into the economy.

But because we're quantitatively tightening, we're actually burning money. That burning of money leads to potentially more banking risk because banks are basically having to move cash to people's pockets and potentially move hell to maturity. Securities To cash. That means taking even more losses at Banks TS Lombard Here says: Banks can tend to be cheeky with what they do.

Let me explain this cheekiness in a very basic way and why this banking price crisis could get worse. in English there are two places the Federal Reserve or Banks can put their bags a F s available for sale Securities and Htms held to maturity. Securities. You don't really have to understand all of the differences between these, but in English these are things that they're willing to sell.

These are things they're not willing to sell. Let's say you bought end phase at eighty dollars and you bought Tesla at three hundred dollars. Let's just say okay, uh well, you would be holding the bag on Tesla stock and you would be up on end phase, right? So how could you be cheeky with your financials If you're a bank, Well, just say your end face stock is available for sale and here you what do you do you mark to Market Which means you actually look at the current market value and you say look, we have a profit. We're so smart we have a profit, just look at our gains and then you hide your losses in available for or Hell to maturity.

Uh Securities And so you hide your bags over here where there is no Mark to Market requirement. So in other words, the banks can hide their bags. Legally Legally hide their bags and not hide their bags on the available and basically prop up they're available for sale Securities right? What does that mean here? Well if more people are pulling cash out, banks are like crap. this is going to expose our bags.

In other words, when the bags get exposed, things could get even worse for the banking crisis. And so TS Lombard asks the question here. Why would you keep your money in deposits Unless the FED Cuts rates or Banks raise rates, right? It's a fair question. Why would you have your money sitting in cash if you could be milking four to five percent on treasuries? It doesn't make sense and so in other words, the Federal Reserve may have to straight up cut their rates to prevent the banking crisis under what treasuries are yielding to stem the flow of the banking crisis.

And until this happens, the financial crisis continues because Financial conditions keep tightening. Here's the nightmare. The nightmare scenario would be: the financial system cannot take any more tightening, but the real economy needs it. Inflation stays High which forces Fed rates to stay high which forces Banks to expose their bags more which leads to more banking collapses.

While rates are high and the FED has to over tightening over tighten To stop this crisis, you have to lower rates and guarantee deposits. You have to quell the panic. Guaranteeing deposits is what the FED has started to do with the treasury Department but not at all banks. The Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Basically just told you your deposits are not safe at small banks.

In fact, I could show you that which is very scary because think about it. I've regularly been saying that you should be cautious about having your money at the small. Banks Now some people are like, have it, you're creating Third, and you're going to create the bank Run No. I I See a fire and I'm warning people that there's a fire coming to you I Feel like I'm not part of the problem I'm identifying the problem right? Uh, this is.

this is like. It's very obvious. If you have more than the FDIC Insurance limits at the bank at Small Banks why would you be there? That doesn't make sense and listen to what Janet Yellen tells you in her Congressional Testimony right here. She gives you the biggest warning that you possibly need to get out of small.

Banks We're dealing with on it. Will the deposits in every Community Bank in Oklahoma regardless of their size, be fully insured. Now are they fully recovered? Every Bank every Community Bank in Oklahoma regardless of the size of the deposit, Will they get the same treatment that Svbp just got? Or Signature Bank just got A bank only gets that treatment if a majority of the FDIC board. a super majority is super majority of the FED board and I in consultation with the President determine that the failure to protect uninsured depositors would create systemic risk and significant economic and financial consequences.

So what is your plan? That determination, right? So so what is your plan to keep large depositors from moving their funds out of Community Banks into the big Banks We have seen the mergers of banks over the past decade. I'm concerned you're about to accelerate that by encouraging anyone who has a large deposit in Community Bank to say we're not going to make you whole, but if you go to one of our preferred Banks we will make you whole at that point. Thank you! Um, look I mean we're That's certainly not something that we're encouraging that is happening right now. That is happening because depositors are concerned about the bank failures that have happened and whether or not other Banks could also.

uh, no, it's happening because you're fully insured no matter what the amount is. If you're in a big Bank, you're not fully insured. If you're in a Community Bank Well, you're not fully insured and you were in signature and it was. It just barely met that threshold you were at Signature Will.

We felt that there was a serious risk of contagion that could have brought down and triggered runs on many banks and that something. Given that, our judgment is that the banking system overall is safe and sound. Depositories should have confidence in the system and we took these actions. So there's a special assessment that's been done on Community Banks in my state and all banks across the country.

Was there any discussion that that special assessment would only apply to the larger Banks Or was it always assumed the special assessment would cover every Bank including rural banks in my state? Um, I I think I I'm not certain what the rules are around that. Um, that that's for the FDI Yeah. All right. So we got the message loud and clear: Janet Yellen The big banks that are systemically important Plus or minus 250 billion dollars.

they get bailed out, Their depositors are safe. If you're at a small bank and you have less than the FDIC Insurance limit, If you have not yet gone to the FDIC calculator, do that Google it FDIC calculator and Google How protected you are. You should leave the small banks. That is what Janet Yellen is telling you.

She is grabbing you by the shoulders and saying uh yeah, we're not protecting all the small Banks They're gonna go away and it sucks, but they're going to be a lot of bankruptcies and a lot of unemployed people and this banking crisis is not getting better. It's getting worse. And the question is, how bad is it going to get for the big boys? The small boys going away. That's already almost a foregone conclusion.

The big depositors are probably going to flee the smaller Banks I Hate to say uh, it's terrible, but the crisis could get a lot worse because now the Federal Reserve is being called upon to not only to protect all depositors with the treasury Department but also stop quantitative tightening because quantitative tightening is leading to more outflows from the banking sector, which is just making this issue worse. And the problem with this is the following: Uh TS Lombard Here says this alone wouldn't solve the problem from a bank perspective though, as people would still be putting their money into money market funds instead of leaving them on deposit. The crisis has revealed to anyone who has been asleep all last year that they can finally get a return on their liquid assets. So why would you leave your money in a bank right now? Banks Could raise deposits, but that would represent a significant hit to prob profitability.

That means there probably will end up being another required step from the Federal Reserve cut rates. Potentially quite aggressively, banks will have to increase their deposit rates to stem outflows damaging profitability, but we reckon the FED will help them by cutting out a cutting rates and bringing money Market fund rates back down closer in line with deposit rates. Otherwise, the tightening of Financial and credit conditions will be hard to manage. For the ECB, the financial system is less Dynamic but outflows to money market funds are a problem here as well.

Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic will in any case, be incentivized to wind back policy by deteriorating activity data and slowing inflation as the credit crunch unfolds. Big picture: We're in a year-long's multi-year-long slog back to higher yields. That's their take by the way. I Wrote a little note here: Bank Assets being bought and sold are probably why so much volatility happened in bonds last week.

The bank's basically liquidating. But anyway. Uh, they do mention here though, that because the assets and crop question the treasury bonds we talked about are also the assets people are buying, there is no Doom Loop yet. But where is the depressive Doom Loop Where is the real depression? Listen to this.

The credit crunch is already now going to expose fragilities in the economy in the other areas, specifically commercial real estate and intra-asian flows. Being the elephant in the room, these have a risk of a doom. Loop So remember what a doom Loop is. Let me first give you what a doom Loop is not okay.

A doom Loop is not sell treasuries. Uh, right, that's not a doom. Loop Because when people sell treasuries. yields go up.

and what are other people doing? They buy treasuries. Now that does create some Doom in the fact that it reduces deposits. That creates some Doom for banks. But this is why I Say in recessions, you stay away from financials.

Said that for over a year either. Okay, what is a doom Loop Well, here's what a doom: Loop Is you ready for this commercial? Or I should just say real estate in general. Here's a an example of a real estate: Doom Loop Okay, so real Estate Doom Loop Number One Less investment. What does that do? Lowers prices, Lowers rents.

This is. uh, this. then lowers. Uh, well.

well. this one here is kind of like lowering your multiples and this lowers your cap rates. Both of these really bad because they funnel together as prices go down because people are less interested in investing in commercial real estate. Uh, because they don't need an office, they don't need to expand their business because there's less available debt for them to borrow.

Lending standards have tightened so much. What then happens: Prices for commercial real estate go down multiple compression. Then what happens? Well, rents could also go down. but if rents go down, then prices should also come down.

For commercial real estate, That is a style of a doom. Loop But not only that, what you could also see is a collapse of pricing and Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities Cmbs's why because banks are having to liquidate their health and maturity Securities Small Banks Having a disproportionately large number of commercial mortgage-backed Securities When I met with Kathy Wood for dinner, she made it very clear that it's the small banks that have the vast majority of the Cmbs's 25 of their book is Cmbs, whereas the Big Banks only seven percent of their book is Cmbs. If you want to learn more about this kind of stuff in perspective, how to think about this: Remember programs on building your wealth coupon best price expires on the 22nd. But anyway, when you get a collapse in these bonds now all of a sudden, you're killing.

Uh, the the wealth of institutions who would ordinarily be buyers in the first place for Uh Office Buildings or commercial buildings or for basically institutional real estate. right? That potentially creates a doom Loop Because now, guess what happens now. Uh, institutional real estate prices come under pressure, which makes those more attractive over residential real. estate.

Now investors stop caring about residential real estate because there are better deals in commercial real estate. maybe apartment buildings. For example, residential real estate is usually considered one to four house duplex Triplex fourplex. Anything else is generally considered commercial real estate.

five units plus office, whatever retail, you name it. So if it's more attractive to investing commercial real estate, then you have less buyers in residential and potentially institutional Liquidations in residential. So people keep saying that, Oh, the real estate crisis is not a big deal Because inventory is so low, homeowners aren't going to sell. Homeowners are just one piece of the pie of this whole crisis.

One piece. That's it. Institutions go away. Now you have less demand for investment real estate, pushing up cap rates, potentially for the commercial stuff, lowering them for residential which drive, or making residential prices look lower.

uh, or pushing. You're basically putting downward pressure on residential real estate to convince investors to go back to residential. uh. And this creates a doom loop again.

where prices potentially spiral down for Real Estate through not only tighter lending standards, but also just less investment. And that is just an example of what you could get in this sort of depressionary environment. T.S Lombard Here says asset prices are still Clinging On to the old way of life. available debt, available credit.

And really, this crisis that's beginning with Signature Valley Bank Signature Credit Suisse These are not coincidences. These are most likely the start of us seeing the economy deteriorate and we're now going to start in uncovering behavioral changes that have not started reflecting yet in asset prices specifically real, estate. and we're weaning off the Global Financial system. When an economy that's used to basically permanent, easy liquidity, cheap, easy debt, this is a big red flag.

So this is why you're seeing these these nasty scenarios. These potential nightmare scenarios. Uh, so it's not just them over here. it's also over here.

the potential loss of confidence you could see in The Not So benign scenario. This is, according to Barclays, there could be a loss of confidence and the credit contraction would likely be abrupt, throwing the U.S economy into a hard Landing in short order, while Regulators have taken important steps to avoid these outcomes such as by making depositors whole, an additional step could be to guarantee all deposits of the banking system. However, that would require Congress to act, which may be a possibility, but so far is unlikely. If there is indeed a crisis of confidence, throwing the economy into a recession, history suggests the Federal Reserve will be forced to ease aggressively.

In past recessions, the unemployment rate has risen by three percentage points. On average, that would be going from like three and a half to seven and a half percent, and the FED cut more than 500 basis points when not constrained by the zero lower bound. Well, basically, that means if we go to five percent now, we could be going right back to zero. So in this sort of hard Landing scenario, the left tail risk is increasing substantially.

which is the recessionary risk. The cut risk, the rate cut risk. And in other words, we could be seeing a lot more pain ahead of us and a lot of Federal Reserve cuts at the same time as we see more pain. Now, one thing that slightly props this up a little bit uh, is this idea that boomers are more in cash.

However, boomers are also potentially likely to create inflation. This Uh. This piece by Lombard suggests that basically there are composite compositional effects of people's life cycle. Uh, and they basically tell you this: young people aged 5 to 29 and old people 65 and plus are inflationary.

The people in between who actually work are deflationary. So people working are deflationary. People spending money and not working are inflationary. But we're potentially.

And and they're saying that this era, right here is why we had a great moderation in inflation. Well, now the people during the Great moderation of inflation are becoming older and that's very inflationary. So now you have to put together the piece of the puzzle that you're getting here. You're getting a potential one end of the great moderation of low inflation.

That's an argument led by uh, potentially Boomers retiring, which is inflationary. Okay, so now you have more sticky inflation. Uh, more sticky inflation equals fed forced to keep rates higher for longer. However, now you have a banking crisis and doom.

Loop for Real Estate I Didn't even mention it earlier. but a doom Loop Uh, a doom Loop for Real Estate is generally considered bad because we know that Mr Schiller who put together the case Shiller index from Princeton Prince famous Princeton Economist tells us that when real estate prices go down, people spend less money. All of that is depressionary. Uh, depressionary.

There we go. Apparently that's not a word, but anyway, that could lead the FED to cut basically to zero. We could go right back to zero in the sort of depressionary scenario. However, that might not be enough to prevent pain throughout 2023 and 2024..

Remember the crisis we talked about earlier in the segment: 2022? Stock prices down 2023, Earnings down 2024, Private equity and lending down, and this would be the start of tightening, uh lending? So in other words, if you want a really bearish case, this is it. Everything sucks going forward to 2024. Now my take in this is maybe it could be wrong, but maybe just maybe. Is it possible that inflation does end up proving to be transitory? That's the only hope you can have is that the inflation here's your great moderation.

Then you get the covet inflation and this is kind of where we are now. Is it possible that this inflation we've seen right here? This this inflation continues. If that disinflation continues, then maybe just maybe the Federal Reserve could cut to zero, prevent the depressionary like the full depression and put a floor under the real estate disaster and a floor under the banking crisis. Basically, it is now High time that disinflation occurs on hyperspeed.

So here's your take if you think inflation will prove transitory now may be a great time to invest in stocks. hashtag not personalized Financial Advice I have no idea what the hell is going on in your life? Yes I'm a financial advisor Yes I have amazing programs on building your wealth. link down below especially zero to millionaire real estate. A lot of people are bundling out with stocks and psych right now.

big coupon expiration coming on March 22nd. So anyway, if you think it's inflation is transitory, now could be the opportunity of a lifetime to invest now. I Personally think you go for pricing power style stocks in that environment, something that would be somewhat recession resilient for a short shallow recession because that way rich people can basically keep those stocks propped up. Rich people and rich rich businesses can keep those propped up.

think Nvidia Taiwan semiconductors AMD Tesla and phase stuff like that and face is on sale right now. By the way, I think great opportunity we're getting close. 160 is like my load the truck Target for end face. But anyway, if you think inflation is here to stay and the great moderation is over because of uh, like this this Boomer talk uh or or the stickiness of inflation and I really summed up this: Boomer piece here.

take screenshots of it if you want. ready here. Boom one, two three. There you go.

You could read the whole Boomer piece if you want I don't think there's anything. Yeah, that was the end of the Boomer piece. So you read the whole Boomer piece there. I Basically gave you the summary of the Boomer piece.

but anyway, there you have the sort of evidence behind it as well if you want. But anyway, if you think inflation is here to stay and the great moderation is over because of the Boomer thing and or the stickiness of inflation, well, you probably just want to milk milk. either either uh, milk bonds? uh, or just cash or straight cash. And short.

Sure, right. that's that's probably the position you're in. And so, uh, I actually think a a heavy amount of positioning is on the side right now. A lot of caches on the side right now.

yeah, retails. uh. individual investors have started buying the dip. but uh, in my opinion, the only way you can argue in the Nike Swoosh is if you believe in number One, this is the volatile Nike Swoosh that we keep talking about.

That is a number one scenario right here. the Doomsday scenario and inflation is here to stay. Uh, we effed basically. Uh, so uh, pick your side or or head, you know or go 50 50.

So uh, yeah, there you have it. That is. Uh, that is some of the the madness. Uh, that is going on.

Check out the programs I'm building you out down below. If it makes you nervous, get life insurance in as little as five minutes if you want to buy the dip, sign up for Weeble by going to bet Kevin.com free and get yourself up to 12 free stocks. Free money basically for signing up to trade on Weeble All right, that's the Doom scenario. Boy, there's a lot of content today.

All right. Um, someone here donated money twice to ask me about UBS I'll give you a little idea here, there is talk that UBS might be interested in buying Credit Suisse along with a whole lot of other drama that we've got to talk about what's really important to know about. Uh, Credit Suisse Potentially being looked at as an acquisition by UBS is in my opinion, any private Enterprise would have to get such a massive discount on these Banks Because if they don't guess what's going to happen if one company buys a toxic company, the value of the company that's not deemed toxic yet plummets unless they got such a good discount on that deal that they basically made that company near worthless. and then they're getting their leftover clients.

That's the only way that works out. Otherwise, that's how you get contagion. A good bank buys a crappy bank and now the good bank becomes a bad bank. That's the disaster.

Think about Bank of America and Countrywide Bank of America bought Countrywide You know how many lawsuits and crap they had to deal with for years after that because of the toxic bags they bought at Countrywide That was an oopsy-doopsy and that's kind of what we're seeing now with credit space, it's starting folks. buckle up Now on the note of real estate potentially crashing I want to give a quick little append that I was just in Fort Worth I Took a look at a lot of different areas in Texas I'll be releasing a separate video on that but I want to give you a little teaser So I met with Sarah Dichi who's a tech YouTuber you should go follow her and I learned something really incredible for her I learned that she grew up in Texas lived in New York moved back to be with family in Dallas uh, the Fort Worth area but guess what she's now moving out of Texas she's got some reasons for that, but based on the hint she gives you here I Want you to ask yourself where is she moving and when she announces this, it could be pretty unheard of. but uh, comment down below what you think based on the evidence I provide you now and it sort of ties into this idea of hey, if we do have a market correction, what does this mean for potentially re-migration Welcome back everyone! I've got see here! This is so exciting and there is the beach. so you live out here in Fort Worth Texas Why did you move to Fort Worth Yeah the DFW area is super great for just living a simple life.

Everything is easy out here, right? It's not super expensive even though it's getting pretty expensive. Um, you know finding a house has actually been more challenging than I thought. But everything else like the rents, you know we live in a decent townhouse for not barely anything. Um, you just have your own cars I'm coming from New York City I mean I know that's basic you can get around.

yeah and but you bought a townhouse out here at one point. Yeah, so we bought a condo and it's all I'm saying is I am so against HOAs y'all stay away from HOAs I Know they serve a purpose for having junk in your yard and stuff, but Texas is the land of HOAs Oh so I got burned pretty bad with that. but now we're renting super cheap like a nice townhouse for 2800 a month it's like nothing. that's awesome.

So rent's pretty cheap out here compared to compared to New York Oh yeah, you're gonna move back to New York Ever. We moved out here to be a family and I have had such a lovely time with my family, but we're realizing that our jobs YouTube It is helpful to have other YouTubers around us so we're considering other places. Yeah, I haven't even I haven't even told my audience that. but I'll say here, we're considering other places.

Oh okay, okay all right other places with YouTubers Yes so there's maybe a couple places. Yeah, not too many of those places. A place. Would you leave a place with no income taxes? I would.

Oh that is how is how you want to be around friends. Oh my gosh. Okay, okay well we'll have to leave at least there. Okay, well what are we gonna find out? When is when? will the world summer? This is Summer.

Stay tuned. Go to Sarah's Channel subscribe and find out where is she leaving Texas for.