We're 30 seconds away from PPI and retail sales I Want you to focus on two very important numbers: Number One: PPI Final Demand: Month over month, it's expected to be 0.3 Number Two: Retail Sales Month over month. Negative Point Four: We want these to come in. ideally PPI comes in low. That'd be fantastic.

That would reiterate. potentially rate Cuts this year. Although that seems like a dream right now and retail sales stable, we don't want them to be too low because that would be recessionary. Here we go.

Retail sales match Point: Four on Retail says: yes. Oh my Gosh. Yes dude. Oh my gosh.

This is bullish. Bullish. Bullish. Bullish.

Holy crap. Uh. PPI Final Demand: Month over month, it was expected to come in up 0.3 It came in at negative point. One Negative Point One: Let's go.

That is freaking awesome. Let's go. PPI Uh X Food Energy Trade comes in at 0.2 instead of 0.3 Fantastic beat. Leading indicator: PPI Leads: CPI Anyway, Ppix Food Energy comes in instead of at 0.4 comes in at zero.

Big Miss So Final Demand: Headline coming in at a big Miss Uh, Food and Energy Big Miss at Zero. Basically flat minus food Energy and Trade comes in soft at point two instead of 0.3 This is fantastic. PPI Final Demand comes in year over year. Whoa.

Expected to be 5.4 Comes in at 4.6 Big Miss To the downside: bye bye inflation. Holy moly. Ppix Food and Energy Year over year 4.4 Expectation was 5 5.4 Big Miss Ppix Food Energy Trade year over year 4.4 Expectation was 4.8 Big Miss and lower than the prior release of 4-5 Retail sales. Uh, prior retail sales were actually revised up from three percent month over month to 3.2 This month comes in at expectations uh minus 0.4 Uh X Auto comes in at expectation minus 0.1 x Auto Gas comes in slightly higher than expectation at flat versus minus 0.2 and then Retail Sales Control Group came in a little hotter.

This is incredible. Absolutely incredible. I Mean this. This is very exciting.

Uh, if if you want to jump on over and get some stocks now you just go to Metcaven.com Weeble get yourself 12 free stocks, start trading on Weeble Let's go and look at the actual PPI report. Let's also look at the sticks over here. you've got the NASDAQ going from about negative 1.5 percent on the day to actually going up. uh about uh well, it's trying to Trend up right now.

we're sitting at about 9 negative 0.9 But this is a fantastic PPI report. Producer price Inflation look index you all know I Love PP Uh, you know I like pricing power. This right here shows we've got pricing power without inflation. This is a fantastic report.

Today is the Ides of March Today is the day that chat GPT told us the world was going to basically end, but it's not. Instead, we got ourselves a giant Halo Needler here which you could get to at Metcaven.com Needler All right, well let's go actually into the PPI report and see what some of the details are here. but this is fantastic. Really, really good.

I Mean this. This is literally what I What? I wanted literally 30 seconds before the release I Said Ideally, retail sales come in at expectations and inflation comes in soft because that means the recession isn't as bad and inflation is better, right? Dude, we got Merry Christmas with this report, this is fantastic I Don't know I Don't know exactly how the Market's gonna end up taking it today because obviously there's there are a lot of concerns in the market market market now pricing in over a hundred basis points of cuts. but let's look at actually some of the details here. Wow, this is insane.

Decrease point one percent. Again, the expectation was an increase of 0.4 percent. Holy moly uh, this shows you January was an anomaly. Look at that.

The index for uh, a minus food energy trade here 0.2 percent after January it Rose point five percent, right? January was hell uh. This is fantastic. Here are the one month changes with a seasonally adjusted chart right here and uh. we.

We can kind of see that they're really trending under the line right here if we look at uh, actually, all three of these here. Final Demand Final Demand Services Final Demand Goods All of them under zero. That's great. You see this anomaly right here in January Uh, and it rightfully so.

an anomaly. We really want to keep this as low as possible. Ideally, we want to be below this red line that I just threw across here, which is about 0.3.4 We're now nicely below that with the exception of that January crisis. This shows you the 12-month Trend It's straight down fantastic.

Final Demand blah blah blah Okay I Want to get some actual numbers here? Uh, okay. here we go. Some actual numbers here: Uh. index for final demand? Inch down Uh.

leading declines. Let's see: prices for transportation and warehousing lead declines falling 1.1 percent Final Demand Services Less Transportation Warehousing Advanced Point Three percent. That's not fantastic. Uh, because Services Still still a little bit stickier, but that's only 3.6 percent.

We can stick with that. We're okay. That's okay I Don't mind that because the Fed's just going to talk that away thanks to fate. Flexible average inflation targeting margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling fell three point Nine percent.

You know, the car steel car dealership guy actually had a really good piece on this yesterday. He was basically trying to explain how basically the people getting screwed uh, in car dealerships right now are the car dealers. In other words, auction prices for like buying new cars for the companies are going up. but like average selling prices are stable or falling.

It basically means we've said it before on the channel. We've said it many times. The companies are taking it in the margin. Oh sorry.

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They're taking it in the margin. Remember if you like my perspectives, courses on building your wealth most popular right now. zero to millionaire real estate, followed by stocks and Psychology of Money A Lot of people are bundling those Elite Hustlers is the next most popular. Somebody was asking me for the third most popular one.

It's that one. You can bundle all three of those. Email us if you need a custom bundle at Kevin.com But anyway, the index for chemicals and and products wholesaling, automobiles, automobile parts, guest room rental Airline Passenger Services declined. Oh, that's actually good guest room rentals Airline Passenger Services decline.

but Outpatient Care Rosa little bit 0.5 percent. That's that's a lingering expectation. That's okay. The index for food and all alcohol retailing Securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice and Loan services increase.

This is because people like Kevin keep raising the prices for their uh for their courses on building, uh, your wealth. actually I don't show up in PPI I Don't at least I don't think I do I don't think we get surveyed If we get surveyed I'm sorry, but that's just the promise we make. The price goes up over time, we add more value, more people join. The price goes up over time.

That way, There's there's always a reason to join sooner rather than later. Prices for process good. and we give you a price match guarantee too. In case that isn't true.

uh, prices for processed goods for, uh, intermediate demand? Move down point: Four percent of whatever that means. prices for processed foods declined 1.9 Yeah, you shouldn't be eating processed food. Anyway, the index for industrial Electrical plug. Don't even get me started on like Dietary said.

Okay, we're not going down this. uh. the index for industrial electrical power primary, organic. Okay, whatever.

So some chemicals and stuff move blower. Yeah, because well, that's ironic because you spilled them all over in Uh East Palestine thermoplastics and resins Rose 1.8 percent unpro. Okay, I don't know what half this crap is. Uh, but I do know that uh I want to look at services? so Services matters.

So the February Advance can be traced to a point six percent rise in prices for services, less trade, transportation, and warehousing. Okay, that's not good. So in other words, all services minus trade Transportation warehouses up at an annualized rate of 7.2 percent. That's not great.

We'd like to see. uh, we'd like to see that slow down a little bit. Uh, so we're still seeing some stickiness in Services Uh, again, we want that to go away. Overall though, we're getting a very good report here, so I'm very excited about that along with that retail sales report uh, which is uh which came in pretty decent now I Want to go to that retail sales report as well? but I'm also going to see if we can get some charts here on uh to get a little bit more data.

So let's go let's try retail. let's see here and let's also take a quick look at what the suits are saying on this. but again, both of these reads absolutely fantastic reads. So I'm pretty happy about these.

Uh, all right, March 15th Here's the March 15th release from the Census Bureau on retail sales Uh, PP Let me just also tell you quickly what uh, the suits are saying here U.S Underlying measures of inflation at an industry level coming in less than expected will further fuel the treasury's rally yields down is what that means, which in turn will give the FED scope to slow down the pace of hikes while it does soften Financial conditions whereas the RuneScape party hat right, it does look like stock futures actually Continuing negative, but whoa, what a plummet on the treasure yields. Holy smokes, Look at that plummet on the treasury yields my God down to 3.47 Dude, that's really good. The treasure eels are plummeting. Uh, a good thing if you own a bunch of treasuries like House Act does my real estate startup.

Oh wow, look at that. The two-year dropping 31 bips now solidly under four percent. 3.9 on the two year. Look at that.

Look at that crash on the right side. All right. Uh, so PBI All right. Something showing.

A little sticky, but overall good news. Okay, we'll keep it on that. What about retail sales? What's happening here? So we know retail sales uh, you know, came in somewhat stable I Don't want to reread some of the numbers here I Want to get to some of the details? Give me give me the Deets Where are the Deets Here we go. these are the Deets that I want? Uh, All right.

so let's look at some of the Deeds here. so adjusted, we'll go with the change. I'm gonna go with the two month total right here. We're going to look at this change right here this rate.

So what do we have? Furniture stores total change and actually can I Just get a percentage Yeah Okay, this is gonna be a lot easier. Uh Feb 23 Advance month over month? Oh, this is much easier. Okay, so what do we have here Jan 23 This is the the two month average here December through Feb Here's the tumor. Okay, all right.

fine. so where, Where's the the heat? That's what I want to see. So the softness Total retail softness 0.4 Great motor vehicle parts down 1.8 Automotive Down to uh, furniture down 2.5 That makes a lot of sense. Gas stations down clothing's actually down here.

at Point eight we get mixed reads on clothing. sometimes it's up like CPI it seems like it was up and uh, here in the producer, it's actually coming down so bad. For leading indicators for clothing, get out of the clothing retailers I Think that's that's one of the the more, uh, lower income discretion areas that's going to end up getting whacked in the Spy health Care and personal care stores. you know.

Yesterday we did a fundamental analysis on Ulta Ulta Beauty. Wow, that's all I Got to say I mean watch re-watch the course member live stream yesterday on Ulta Beauty. But look at this PPI telling you price is going up and Healthcare and personal care stores Ulta actually gave us a reason for that. Uh, but anyway, food and beverage store is up 0.5 percent grocery store so still getting that food inflation I'm actually surprised by this.

We got this in CPI as well that appliances were starting to take up again Food Services and drinking places. Oh this is fantastic news down 2.2 percent. That's great news for me. Uh, department stores love those Food Services places.

Uh, department stores minus uh, four percent great. Anything else over here? Not really? Okay, Okay, all right. so this gives us a little bit of an idea. percentage-wise Where's the heat? really? The heat is in health and personal care that could potentially be lingery, right? Like lingering and price increases.

Um, you know. Okay, A little bit of a spoiler alert. Uh, what you're seeing is you're seeing Beauty and cosmetics companies come out with more product verticals to start appealing to lower income demographics because they realize we're walking into a recession. That, however, is starting to lead to some of the the cheaper stuff go up in price, but the more expensive stuff come down in price.

They're trying to protect their margins basically by introducing like mid-tier style products. And it's really interesting because you are still seeing health and personal care pump like this stuff is done very very well. Over the last year to two years, it'll be very interesting to see what goes on forward. Uh.

and and you know we talk some more about the valuations of Health and Beauty and that in the live but uh. but yeah, this. Okay, so this gives us retail sales. This gives us uh, what's going on with producer prices? I Think this is fantastic news.

Here's another update from Wall Street Today's data releases were not totally unambiguous. What? Uh, but in other words, a little confusing is what they're saying. That's a confusing way of saying. It was confusing.

Anyway, on balance, it cleared room for the FED to take a step back. The PPI data Smooths Some inflationary concerns with figures coming in below expectations at across every major aggregate. Correct, the FED does not. Target PPI This is true, they target the demand side CPI Pce, but this is good to know that pipeline inflation is coming down.

Uh Empire Manufacturing surveys. Even though they're erratic, they're trending down. And really, this just reiterates to the FED that inflation is is potentially solved here. And now we gotta minimize the potential for uh, a, uh uh, you know, a hard recession here.

Uh, okay. so Break Even Inflation yields on the snooze trending down looking uh, like they're hitting about 2.33 now World interest rate probabilities? Uh, yep. now increasing again the odds of a rate cut towards the end of the year. So uh, now we're now.

We're pretty clearly expecting rate cut by the end of the year. Uh, it's remarkable to me that markets are potentially starting to price in rate Cuts as soon as June It really kills this. Um, this. Uh, dare I say um higher for longer Thesis: Yeah, here's Steve Who gives us some numbers Empire manufacturing coming in at negative 24.6 versus the expectation of negative 7.9 and the previous of 5.8 Thank you for that.

Uh, let's see here. then we've got uh, somebody trying to make a Linus Tech tip jokes? uh in the chat. uh I saw that video too. Uh, and then uh, frankly, I'd be fine with three percent CPI says the crypto guy.

Well, of course, because you know the Fed's just gonna explain it away with uh with fate. So anyway, as usual, check out the programs on building your wealth. If any of this makes you nervous, get life insurance in as little as five minutes by going to Metcalm.com life get 12 free stocks with Weeble by going to Metcaven.com free that is M-e-t or just use the link Down Below in the description uh Futures right now actually going more negative on this news even though in my opinion this is fantastic news, this is just reiterating that inflation it's not the issue and we should be focusing on pricing power stocks. but hey the market is so irrational it the more opportunities they give me to add the more I'll take them I mean it's fine with me.

so I think this is fantastic. This is just yet again as not like I You know I will flip-flop on you I would be I would be I would be the most excited person to flip-flop on you because then I could make a wonderful video that I get a lot of views. that'll say I'm flip-flopping again but I'm not like this just reiterates uh, the volatile Nike Swoosh uh this is uh, this is actually very good news. Uh I think that maybe if the market trends downwards today, it would solely be because because retail sales came in negative, it just reiterates the idea of God Now we're not worried about inflation anymore.

Now we're actually worried about recession. Uh, that's really the only reason. But again, I think you can minimize the worries of recession by being exposed to pricing power style stocks. You know things with Big PP Uh, you know things with people with money you're still going to be spending money on while we get through this disaster.

The good news is the Quaker inflation. Falls The less pain we end up getting from inflation uh uh right and the quicker we could flip-flop uh and uh and bail markets out with price cuts.