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THE BEAR MARKET RALLY:
As of now, it’s said that markets have “completely given up’ on hopes of a Fed pivot this year”….and with that, comes the warning from Morgan Stanley, that “The Bear Markey Rally Will Resume.” As they say, “U.S. stocks are more expensive than at any time since 2007 and the Global Financial Crisis.” They also believe that “this rally is a bull trap, but recognize if these levels can hold, the equity market may have one last stand before we fully price the earnings downside”…which, is another way of saying: company profits will be declining - and, as a result - their stock price is likely to continue falling.
WARREN BUFFET BUYING:
Warren Buffet is currently holding on to $77.9 BILLION DOLLARS in treasuries, “while reiterating that it’s not so painful to be sitting in cash anymore”….and this is for good reason: Treasuries are currently paying a guaranteed 5% on 6-12 month terms and, if you’re looking to get something similar, here’s what you need to know:
First: To get the advertised interest rate, you NEED to hold it to maturity.
SECOND: There’s the slight risk that interest rates go even higher, ONCE you’ve already locked in.
THIRD: A safer approach can be what's known as a “Treasury Ladder.”
See here: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/27/how-to-build-a-treasury-bill-ladder-to-capture-higher-yields.html
RICH MILLENNIALS :
Bank of America believes that millennials are tired of volatility, and - instead - they’re choosing 3 asset classes that have historically held up to inflation, with number one being: REAL ESTATE.
As Bank of America explained, “28% of younger people said real estate presents great growth potential. And 31% of the older group held the same opinion.”
In addition to that, SECOND, they’re buying alternative investments.
In fact, more millennials believed that this offered a greater opportunity for building wealth, than they did with REAL ESTATE.
And finally, THIRD, we have Private Equity.
This refers to a privately held company that’s NOT publicly traded…and, in this case…1-in-4 millennials believed that this was the best opportunity to for their cash.
As far as what you could expect over these next few weeks, with inflation picking up, we’re likely to see even more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve when they meet next on March 22nd.
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What's up? Graham It's guys here. So 2023 is already off to an interesting start because in just the last week alone, we've seen a woman go viral for buying a 1998 Ford Escort for 289 dollars a month for the next 84 months, a teacher was charged for running a crypto mining operation from the school crawl space and BBC news said that presenters could relax their dress code because the sweaty and dirty look is more trustworthy. Hold on I'm going to be right back there we go. That's better.

although if you thought it was done, it gets worse. A federal judge just ruled that emojis can now count as Financial Advice: Morgan Stanley is evidence that the current stock market rally is a bull trap and Warren Buffett called this critics economically illiterate right as Rich Millennials lose confidence in the markets. That's why we really need to talk about exactly what's going on. reveal the three assets that Millennials are beginning to buy and break down exactly what you could do with this information to potentially make money on today's episode of Yes, it is possible to go to Disneyland every single day for eight years.

Although before we start, if you want to be kept up to date on market news and financial topics just like this, it would help out tremendously if you hit the like button or subscribe for the YouTube algorithm. It helps with the channel tremendously and is a thank you for doing that. Here's a picture of a rare owl so thank you guys so much and also a big thank you to Public.com for sponsoring this video, but more on that later. Alright, so let's start with the stock market, because right now there's the mindset that prices are about to plummet it and it all starts here.

First of all, you've probably noticed that the stock market's been on an upward Trend since October of 2022, having increased as much as 17 percent in just the last few months Now, most of that was the result of slowing inflation, strong corporate earnings, and price cuts that gave the impression that the worst was over, but uh, that might not be the case. Instead, we got inflation that was hotter than expected in January People were found to have spent more money than anticipated, and as a result, the FED is expected to keep interest rates higher for longer, causing stocks to Once Again Begin falling. And that's what leads us to today. As of now, it's said that the market has completely given up on a Fed pivot this year, and with that comes a warning from Morgan Stanley that the Bear Market Rally will resume as they say: U.S stocks are more expensive than at any time since 2007 and the global Financial crisis.

although in terms of a Bear Market rally, to be honest, none of this is out of the ordinary. now. technically a Bear Market rally simply refers to a stock market increase of more than five percent in the middle of an even larger downtrend. And in the big picture, it is incredibly common.

In fact, Investopedia announced that every bear Market between 1901 and 2015 spawned at least one five percent rally In rallies of 10 or more interrupted two-thirds of the 21 Bear markets over that span. But as far as whether or not we're currently in a Bear Market rally, the truth is nobody has the slightest clue. For example, Barons believes that a decline in earnings has already been priced in Market Highs are continually exceeding Market lows, and Technical indicators suggest that we have more room to increase. Not to mention, another analysis has found that since 1981, there have been no instances where the FED has continued to tighten their policies during a recession.
That means that if things were to get too bad, it's very likely the FED would begin to pull back or that could age just as horribly as this Yahoo article that proclaimed the FED would stop hiking rates in February based on history. However, like I mentioned earlier, this is just the tip of the iceberg. And in terms of what Warren Buffett is doing about all of this, you're going to want to sit down. now.

Typically, when you think Warren Buffett the words economic, illiterate or silver tongue demagogue don't usually come to mind. But in this case, those were his exact words. and it all has to do with an increasingly controversial topic that can make some investors a lot of money. And that would be stock.

BuyBacks See, here's the thing: Anytime a publicly traded company makes a profit, they could spend that money in three different ways: They could either reinvest that money back into the business to continue growing, they could save it and then have to pay tax on that, or they could give it back to shareholders. And that's where things get a little bit messy. In most cases, a company could pay you a portion of their profits in the form of a dividend, which pays you based on the number of shares that you own. But if a company believes they are fundamentally undervalued and they have no better use of capital, then they could use all of that excess cash to buy back their own stock, increasing its value, and making its investors a lot of money in the process.

In fact, over the last 10 years, companies have engaged in a record amount of BuyBacks, which is drawing criticism from politicians who believe that Corporate America should use their cash in other ways to boost the growth in the long term, such as employee benefits and capital expenditures, especially during a time where layoffs are increasing. However, a tax Foundation analysis found that once a company has excess cash that they cannot reasonably use within the business, they either hold on to it or they return that value back to shareholders. In this case, companies were found to make investment decisions first and then buy back shares with what's left over, not the other way around. That's why Warren Buffett argues that stock BuyBacks are a necessity, hence why he says his critics are either economically illiterate or a silver tongue demagogue.
But Warren Buffett isn't just buying back his stock right now. Oh no, Instead, he's buying into something that all of us could partake in that's practically risk-free And that would be treasury bills. That's right, Warren Buffett is now holding on to 77.9 billion dollars and treasuries while reiterating that it's not so painful to be sitting in cash anymore. And this is for good reason, because treasuries are currently paying a guaranteed five percent on 6 to 12 month terms.

And if you're looking to do something similar, here's what you need to know: basically treasuries or loans made to the US government and in exchange for Lending them, your money, you get paid back with interest, which right now is anywhere between almost four percent to five percent, depending on the term. The benefit to the government is that they'll be able to get a constant influx of money, and you as the lender, get a risk-free rate of return that substantially higher than what you would receive in a bank account. Now, if this sounds too good to be true, the answer is it's not, but there are a few points you have to be made aware of. First, to get the Guaranteed Rate you have to hold on to it through maturity.

This means that if you buy a three-month treasury, you're holding on to it for the full three months. The same thing also applies to a six month, one year, three years, five years, and so on. The second: there is a slight risk that interest rates go higher once you've already logged in, like, say, for example, you buy a 12-month treasury at five percent. There's nothing that says Jerome Powell can't raise rates even further and then treasuries are paying 5.4 percent for the same thing.

Now, this certainly isn't the end of the world, and you'd still be entitled to your full five percent, but it is something to consider. that's why, because of that number. Third, a safer approach is what's called a treasury ladder. To do this, instead of throwing all of your money all at once into one treasury, you could spread it out over a few months to even a year.

That way, you're always going to have more cash on hand to buy into treasuries in the event rates go up. The problem, though, is that buying U.S treasuries can be extremely complicated. It's very confusing and you typically have to go through a website that looks like it was designed back in 2003. Thankfully though, our sponsor, Public.com wants to help, they're an investing platform where you could buy, hold and sell thousands of assets like ETFs Collectibles stocks and more.

And now Public just launched Treasury Accounts, which is a new way for you to access the five percent yield of U.S treasuries directly from your phone with the flexibility of a bank account. With Public, there are no minimum hold periods or settlement delays, and because these are government-backed treasury bills, it's an incredibly safe place to park your cash. Your treasury bills are also securely held in custody at the Bank of New York Mellon the world's largest custodian bank and security services company, so you could trust that they're unsafe. Keeping public can even automatically reinvest your treasury bills at maturities so you don't have to do anything else to continue growing your yield.
So if you're interested, feel free to use the link Down Below in the description or visit Public.com Graham to begin earning a 5.1 percent yield in your cash. All right now. Speaking of other potential, Investments Rich Millennials are taking a slightly more unorthodox approach, and if you're curious what they're buying, it's probably not what you would expect. According to a survey from Bank of America, those aged between 21 and 42 with 3 million dollars or more in investable assets only have 25 percent of their portfolio invested in stocks, compared to 55 from those over the age of 43..

So what's going on? Well, Bank of America believes that Millennials have gotten tired of volatility. so they're putting their money in three asset classes that had historically held up well with the first being real estate as Bank of America explains, 28 percent of younger people said that real estate presents great growth potential, and 31 of the older group held the same opinion. In addition to that, second, they're buying cryptocurrency. In fact more.

Millennials believed that cryptocurrency was a greater generator of potential wealth than real estate, and on average, they held 15 percent of their portfolio here. And finally, third, we have private equity and in this case, one in four Millennials believed that this was the best opportunity for their cash. Now personally, as someone who falls precisely in this category, I Gotta say, I think this survey is incredibly stupid and the reason why Millennials own so little stock compared to older Generations is that they haven't had enough time for that stock to grow substantially in value. That's why, from my perspective, vulture Generations hold more stock than Millennials simply because they've had more time to to accumulate stock.

Although the biggest difference between Generations is apparently emojis, and if you're not careful, they could land you in jail. Now Admittedly, at first I thought this is satire, but I quickly came to realize that this is real and as of a few days ago, a judge ruled that these three emojis constitute Financial advice. And if you don't believe me, it all starts here with NBA Top Shots. For those unaware, these are essentially digital basketball cards featuring Game highlights that could be bought in packs or resold on the secondary market for a potential profit, but there was a problem.

One class action lawsuit argues that these for functioning as Securities and because of that, they would have to comply with the same rules and regulations as a publicly traded stock. see the SEC follows What's called the Howie test which clarifies the difference between a tradable sports card and a stock and it all comes down to Four Points It must be an investment of money and a common Enterprise with the expectation of profit to be derived from the efforts of others. In this case, a judge highlights that Dapper Labs which owns and operates NBA Top Shots is a common Enterprise that facilitates buying and selling, with his Twitter posts and Emoji suggesting that these cards have the potential to increase in value over time under the expectation of profit. as the judge explains, although the word profit is not included in any of the tweets, the Rocket Ship Emojis, stock chart, Emoji and Money Bags emoji objectively mean one thing: a financial return on investment.
Of course, there are a lot of nuances in this claim, namely the fact that right now this only applies to MBA Top Shots in that one Post in this one claim, but as the SEC continues to expand their enforcement, I Would not be surprised if this were attached to other cases where profits are suggested, but it is a reminder that intention is everything and it's always important to take everything you see with a grain of salt. Kind of like buying a 1998 Ford Escort for 289 dollars a month for the next 84 months. And yes, the total cost of that does that up to twenty four thousand, Two hundred and seventy six dollars for a car that's probably only worth about twenty nine hundred now, unfortunately. I Tried to find the original Source But the reality is that these kinds of deals do happen and they're usually issued by privately owned car businesses that do their own in-house financing.

My guess is that most likely the dealership gave her a loan with the expectation that they're probably never going to be paid back in full, hence why they issued such a high payment. But even crazier than that was this teacher who carried out an elaborate crypto mining operation that was only noticed once detectives investigated an excessive number of computers, electrical wires, and temporary ducting into a crawl space. His reason for putting it there, you might ask. Well, he figured that he'd be able to piggyback off the school's electrical panel since electricity is so expensive.

That, thankfully for him though, there's also free electricity in jail. Okay, in all seriousness, as far as what you could expect over these next few weeks, with inflation picking up, we're likely to see even more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve when the they meet next on March 22nd. Currently, the market is pricing in a 75 likelihood that the FED is going to increase rates by another 25 basis points, which would take their Federal funds rate to almost five percent. But there's also a 25 chance that they'll increase rates by 50 basis points, which would absolutely shock the market will they take a more aggressive stance on inflation personally.
I'm in the belief that we're likely to see a series of 25 basis point rate hikes throughout the rest of 2023 because so far everything they do lasts a lot longer than everybody expects. Honestly, at this point nothing would surprise me anymore except if you haven't already hit the like button and subscribe for the YouTube algorithm. So with that said, you guys thank you so much for watching! As always, feel free to add me on Instagram And don't forget that you can get a free stock with your sponsor Public.com Down Below in the description when you make a deposit with a good gram. and also they allow you to buy treasuries on there so if you're interested you could also do that on there as well very easily.

Enjoy! Thank you so much! And until next time.

By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

23 thoughts on “A warning for the 2023 stock market”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars J S says:

    How many millenials brought FTx? Answer TOO MANY

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Hillbilly says:

    I’m closing in on retirement and I'd like to move to Hawaii where the climate is warm, tho home prices are absurd and mortgage rates skyrocketing on a roll. With the coming recession, do I just invest spare cash of 250k into stock and wait for a housing crash, or go ahead to buy a home anyways?

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ryan Despain says:

    How's that ftx lawsuit going for you?

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Leonard R says:

    My portfolio has good companies, however it has been stalling this year. I have approximately $600k stagnant in my reserve that needs growth.

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Hola! MJRISIN SD says:

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Phil 2107 says:

    Cryptocurrency = Kryptonite🤢

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Honest says:

    We need a whole entire stock market crash. I will explain why and it all turns out good which in order to have anything good all that is wrong has to be destroyed in the process. Define Dinosaurs. Define Cavemen. Define Stuck. Define Sea Shell Currency. Define Borrowed. Define Cemetery. Define Future Generations. Define Cycle. Define Stunning new universe fly through by video from space and what is inside our dark universe to nowhere where we are factually stuck on the top layer of this planet, a habitat to be exact with no ground underneath this round planet and no oxygen outside of this planets atmosphere to breathe. We as a species keyword species do not make it to anywhere in this life. The only way to actually go somewhere is if you wish to be apart of a space agency like NASA and then it's all just to come back this round planet due to lack of oxygen on other planets, in outer space in general, lack of needed natural resources not existing on other planets, and really the fact of no direct ground or visible exit door.

    (Don't mind me. I can hope for a door even if there isn't one…)

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Bob Johnson says:

    🚀📈💰…… sue me.

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Eric Wilde says:

    in such times as this, you’ve got to make sure you consider having a diverse investment strategy. Your portfolio should have exposure to different areas of the market, including small or large-caps of ETF index, international stocks, grade bonds and alternatives like currency market (forex & digital-ledger) I grew to a 7 figure mark with my portfolio having exposure to different areas of the market Credits to my adviser, Susan Kay Mack..it's been steady growth.

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Darlene Fasolo says:

    Love the car in the background

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dylan Boxler says:

    The true people who hold your reality together. I like to drink alcohol, smoke Marijuana, hang with my friends. That's essentially it. When I'm not pouring concrete for the rest of society; who refuse to acknowledge let alone respect the hard working men and women who put there immediate well being on the line every day. The people who hold your world together.

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Cody Ivan says:

    The Market have been suffering over the past month, with all the three indexes recording losses in recent weeks. My $400,000 portfolio is down by approximately 20%, any recommendations to scale up my returns before retirement will be highly appreciated.

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chris says:

    You and Andrei J look and act a lot alike. Even your statures match up. Do y'all go to the same gym and have the same diet too? I've seen the both of you together with that doge coin guy once. Related perhaps?

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Militia-GNR says:

    A bunch of rich pricks losing all their cash can only be a good thing.

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars SilentVinyl says:

    hmm

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars R C says:

    He was right! Anyone else seeing how he brought what happens Friday to our attention and bam

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars R. Payne says:

    Sec is off the rails. They need to be shut down. An imogy is just that. Judge off their rocker. We need to remove judges that are not in reality. A precedent set over an imogy. What a joke.

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Nicholas Finch says:

    Coming back here after the SVB crash is making me laugh my ass off. SVB taking that treasurey bet a bit too soon. Should have strategized more…

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Clint Bartholomew says:

    What’s up graham it’s guys here

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars mike henn says:

    4.2 million sheep following you off the cliff

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Edie says:

    do not run on banks …do not crash banks!!! or they will put global currency executive order 14067 in action !!!!!!!!!!

    fear is the enemy

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Naomi Spring says:

    The interest rate could easily go higher than the 5.1% interest rate! & The government is TRILLIONS of dollars in debt. How is that safer?

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Elijah Spackman says:

    As a millennial I’m going back to investing in gold, guns and things I can actually own.

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