Good morning guys! Everyone welcome back to the channel! I know I've been posted in quite some time. Uh, was on a two-week vacation, just got back home and blah blah blah blah. But anyways, yeah, gonna post on a video for you guys here today. Uh, so we'll start with this screen here.

Pull this down. so the last sell signal we got was back here. You can see the 10 cross below the 50 moving average. so that's a sell signal and we don't consider the market starting to reverse into sort of an up move until we break the 50 SMA which is currently located at 398.40 which really is where we're at pre-market right now.

You can see that red line that I'm hovering over is 398.40 So unless the market is above this, uh, we don't really watch long and you can see we popped over. but then next candle is down below. popped over, next candle down below popped over, got one candle to hold two. Up Down Below pop over down below.

So in short, the Market's not sustaining over the 50 SMA currently and it's more likely you see things like that when you're coming off a gap up. uh, you know, like Market gapped up a lot overnight. Then to break this and continue going is a little less likely as opposed to the market not having a gap. and then the market crept over the line intraday.

and but anyways, whole point is until the market gets over this 398.40 we're not going to be watching extremely long bias, but once we do get over 398.40 or just the 50 SMA, that's where we're going to start watching more long bias. Okay, um, and or if the 10 SMA crosses over the 50 SMA and gives us a Buy Signal then we'll be watching on the long side. All right, couple things statistically: uh, talking would be pretty much a mean reversion on the market is the market back to 382.. So to me, markets going to 382 is completely normal.

Um, just because that would be the market going back to its long-term average So Based over the last one year of trading on the market, the long-term average is 382 dollars. Therefore, buying the market here at 415 as high as 419 close to the 420. you're starting to get the plus two standard air and slightly close to plus two standard deviation. Which just means the Market's overbought from its long-term mean.

Majority of the time, the market is going to exist within one standard deviation of the mean, which is the yellow line. So you can see the yellows are here or yellow or orange. right? Yellow Orange. Here the means white, Yellow Orange.

Here the means white, Yellow Orange mean white, Yellow Orange mean white, blah blah blah. So anyways, a mean reversion of 380 Two, It's kind of in the playbook for me. Um, as of now, like I said, we're kind of waiting to see if we can get the markets back over the 50 SMA and if we get them over the 50 SMA then we'd be more likely to watch the markets long bias today. Next couple things that we'll talk about are some anchor V webs and then we'll go back and we'll talk about some Fibonacci stuff on the other truck.

Okay, so for right now, uh, on a larger term kind of picture, this is what we're looking at. Uh, there's a couple like random arrows in here I'm going to get rid of so it doesn't clog the chart as much. That's good. Okay, so from the top down of the market.

So from uh right, oh, it's a check mark there we go. So from right there, that was the all-time high. So tracking the volume weighted average price of the all-time high moved down this purple line that you see right there and there in there. That purple line is the volume weighted average price of the all-time high.

Top down Bearish move. Okay, basically you can see you know, markets maintained below it. We pushed over it, briefly, back under down, pushed to it down, push to it down. Okay, so we know that until the market obviously gets through the all-time high anchor V web, we're not going to start.

I would basically say everything's a bear Market rally okay and vice versa. From the last Market bottom which was here, the anchor V-wap or volume weighted average price of that bottom up move puts an anchored V web here. You get a retest. Here, you break through it briefly with eight days of consolidation break back up.

so another test there push off and then the volume weighted average price of this most recent bottom puts the anger Review app on the low that was just created Friday All right, So pretty much Friday's action when you saw this, this and then we popped up. here. that was the anchor V Web of the Anchor V Web which is pretty much this. Okay, so same concept of anchoring to this low point was the same point of anchoring to this low point.

So essentially the market goes up. We break through the low anchor view app that pink line briefly do eight days of consolidation, then break up. Therefore, meaning we kind of did trust that anchor V web to slightly below. So then we anchor a new V-wap to this low and that's going to help us see the next little short-term Trend which would be this one where you'll see the market sustained yesterday.

Well, Friday which would have been here. and then we've popped up this morning. Okay, now from there, we're also tracking the most recent Bearish cross sell Signal View app which is the blue so we know that we're not long bias unless we get over the 50 SMA and then the trend is not fully shift until we really break through about 457 right now. So the way that we would read pretty much all of that in real time would be we're below the long-term Bearish View app.

we're above the midterm bullish V web which is this bottom one here we just held I don't even know how to classify that yet, but maybe like um, this intermediate term view up here. All right and we have yet to break over the short-term Bearish sell signal B Web which is the blue line which is really priced at about 466 area. So pretty much what we're going to be doing is probably watching the markets long bias back to about 400 and close to maybe 403. but for right now pretty much kind of looking bullish.

um I wouldn't mind seeing a retest of the blue V web we haven't even had one in. Gosh knows how long we've gotten close but never really tested. You can see we we broke down. we had one test here that was the entry and then Bearish down.

You had some close calls here but never quite tagged and now we're going to be coming up today I'd expect to maybe try to retest that, but ultimately if the markets form up, we get over the 50. SMA We'll watch long bias okay, and then from there we'll watch long bias back to about 457 420 something which would be a retest of the baby blue cell signal. Beware coming off of an inter intermediate term V web here on this low okay and then next little thing we'll talk about and then I'll let you guys go is going to be um, well I guess I'll bring I Can do Wait what am I looking at here There we go. All right.

So the other thing I'll mention is that we're really low in the cell cycle signal or cell signal cycle. So that's a tongue twister All right. So pretty much this is the FIB cycle we've been watching from here to here. Okay, pretty much yeah, that's pretty much it.

Could probably do it. Slightly more accurate, but good enough. All right. So pretty much you'll see that: Um, this is the Fibonacci cell cycle, cell cycle wait cell signal cycle.

Man, that's tough. So yeah, this blue V or blue um 10 SMA across some of those fit the SMA that's a sell signal and then a couple things of current allows us to do a Fibonacci cycle. Okay, and so you'll pretty much see Friday We got down to the 261 level or extension price target of the Bearish move, which means you're getting pre-over sold. Okay, the max drawdown of this uh, this sell signal Fibonacci cycle would be 38407 And again, where's 38407? Line up close to 38233.

What's three, Eight Two three Three Three Eight Two three Three is the mean. And we talked about earlier, a mean reversion. So totally normal. If markets end up seeing prices of three two three three, it would just be reverting back to the long-term average at that point and currently within this cell signal cycle.

Um, the max drawdown of that Fibonacci cycle is about 384, which would basically put you at the mean reversion. Um, so not really surprised that that lines up that way. So again, in terms of Fibonacci, we've got the 261. Target that's that.

So so again, Friday's action. We were just watching bearish down to 261 and then we weren't really bearish. We're just like, yeah, this is. It's too hard to be bearish here because you're at the 261, you're at a half deviation, so on so forth.

So um, we just broke over the 10 SMA on Friday's action. going into the afternoon. we're testing the 50 SMA right now, so over 398 will probably flip up long buys, go back towards the 400 marks, and then, you know, maybe even look for a retests of the deviations of the 402s 403s. ETC You guys know the deal.

So yeah, that's that's about all I can cover in there for the moment in time. Um, the last thing. Well, I mean I could actually talk about a couple other things. So we're going to get a gap up here based on the way the charts moving and the way things are looking.

So we'll just say that the Market opens roughly around 39838 and I don't know it could open up higher, but I'm just gonna do this for now. So you guys get an idea. But let's just say the market was going to open up at 398.40 Uh, the market closed on Friday at. Well this is the closed candle so 396.39 So if the market were to stay flat and just open up right about here a couple pennies with inside this Mark then the overnight Gap when I say 396.39 right? something? Basically this, then the overnight Gap 161 Target is going to be 39964 right? So just based off of assumptions of how or where the markets can open today and the sort of overnight Gap that will be created from where I'm expecting will probably open somewhere around.

That would create an intraday 161 long Target of 39964. Okay, whereas previously we already talked about watching the anchored V web up to about 450.. So the Fibonacci intraday long Target would be about 3996, the volume weighted average price sell signal bearish test would be about 457. When the Market opens, it's going to adjust a little lower so we'll call it closer to 400..

So not only is volume weighted average price kind of going gearing up in the 400, but you have intraday um Fibonacci long targets. They're aiming towards 400.. So a couple things kind of lining in that area for a desired price Target move so you know Confluence if you want to call it uh but anyways, yeah, that's pretty much today's video. You guys have a great day and take care.

Oh, before I go, there are some like pullbacks and things that obviously can happen, but I'm not even going to go into it because you already know the deal right until we break over the 50. SMA Markets can still trade bearish when you're over the 50s and maybe watch up. So it's really just an over under play around 398 for you right now.