So here is everything you need to know about the CPI data report that was released today. What's going on? Team: It's Ricky here with Techbook Solutions I'm going to start sharing my screen so you can see exactly what it is that I'm looking at I Wanted to share with you that even when Sqq is in the red meaning that the NASDAQ Market is in the green right because this is the inverse ETF I'm still up sixty eight hundred dollars. this all happened and it was actually caught in my live session today. I Live streamed the CPI data report I'm getting ready to actually trade the reversal so I actually missed the original reversal I had to go get my girl some flowers for Valentine's Day and by the time I came back, this thing was already taking off.

But the really great thing about it was I actually let my learn plan profit team know about this reversal forming, allowing them to know you know when it was overbought I Did not hesitate to lock in profits I Knew because of the CPI data report being reported at 6.4 percent of inflation uh, in comparison to the previous of 6.5 percent, the market had an expectation of 6.2 and I wanted to show you guys this very quickly I Want to get right to it February 14th, 2023 Market expectation was 6.2 percent. that was the forecast. What was actually reported was 6.4 percent so it still came in lower than the previous inflation report at 6.5 but definitely not where you thought we would be. And the reason that this is concerning is because again, the rate of inflation is not declining or we're not seeing any more continuous progress at the same rate that we were before.

And if inflation right, we got really close this time. if inflation actually begins to go up Jerome Powell Said it in his last discussion that he will make sure that if inflation data comes in hotter than expected, he will raise rates more than what was already already anticipated for 2023. and this is something that he said in this in his discussion as of last week when he was speaking in Washington DC This is why I believe and again I Wanted to make this video and please if I'm if I'm completely wrong, come back to this video and you can call me out for it, right? I'm just sharing my opinion but just like I did with the unemployment report, I wanted to share with you why I Think that the market will correct itself because of what was reported today. So for those that are unaware on how to read these reports, one of the first things that I want to remind you is this: CPI data report is all available for you for free as you can see on the top left hand corner at Bls.gov Forward slash CPI You can go ahead and click on the HTML and what it shows is that the actual reporting right now is 6.4 percent.

The great thing about this is that it's actually a very simple report to read. if you know what you're looking for. it's all these line items that are pretty much being tracked month over month is inflation going up or down for food for food at home, for food away from home energy energy? Commodities gasoline, fuel and oil and all this is tracking is month after month. Once the month completes itself right, it tracks if inflation is going up or down in those specific line items.

that's all it really is right. So going across the board, you can see that Inflation and all these line items pretty much went up in the month of January which was the one that was reported today except for three line items. and those three line items are as you can see right here. We saw negative 1.2 points and that's on fuel oil.

If I'm not mistaken, we see a negative 1.9 points and that's on you. I'm sorry, that's on used and uh, used cars and trucks and then on medical care services. We saw a decline of negative 0.7 Everything else saw an increase and the most concerning one was the one that we saw an increase of 6.7 points. Uh, and that was on utility piped gas Services The reason that this is a concern to me is we've seen such a beautiful decline in inflation.

we have to give credit where it's due. We went from 9.1 percent. now we sit at 6.4 percent, but every single CPI data report we were seeing steady drops. Some even better than expected, right? Not this one.

This was one of the first ones that was really close to being Break Even We were at 6.5 percent. Now we're at 6.4 Yes, it's a decline, but is this not what we talked about last week and this is my concern because of what Jerome Powell said I Think that he's just setting up for an alley-oop. He said that he will raise rates more than what is expected if inflation comes in hotter than expected, because he knows that just like anything, when we start to see a decline, it happens very quickly in the beginning. But then it's now that we're getting closer to the five or six percent, the lower six percent inflation rate, that's going to be the harder ones to drop, right? We went from 9.1 percent and we've seen consistent declines.

But the question is, are we going to be able to see more consistent clients now that we sit at 6.4 percent? I Think that just like I explained last week and the week prior, especially if you're part of my Lpp team, One of the things that I talked about is I Think now is the time where we're going to begin to consolidate, where the next couple of months we're going to see one month come in hotter than expected and then the month after that we might come in lower than expected. but it's not going to be the pretty picture that we've seen for the past couple of CPI data reports where we've seen steady declines month over month with these CPI data reports and that is my concern. The concern is, well, if we do not see that decline, then the Federal Reserve will justify being more aggressive with future interest rate hikes, and that's where the attention has now shipped. You guys all know that the Federal Reserve has specific dates where they announce interest rate hikes.

Are you prepared for the next interest rate hike? the previous interest rate hike, and again I Want to have this all laid out for you guys so you guys can understand. The last interest rate hike was 0.25 percent. It was one of the lowest ones since March of 2022. Now, because this inflation report came in a little bit hotter than what was expected, it wouldn't be much of a surprise to me if it actually comes in at point five percent.

I Don't really think that they could justify a 0.75 because we're not necessarily sitting at 9.1 percent inflation anymore, but I can see how the Federal Reserve can now justify instead of doing a 0.25 percent, going back and trying to be a little bit more hawkish, right? That's the term that they like to use and then focus on the 0.5 interest rate hike instead of the 0.25 because inflation is not coming down as quickly as expected. Not only just that, but the Federal Reserve still has yet to reduce their balance sheet up to 95 billion dollars every single month and 30 million dollars at 30 billion dollars of that is supposed to be of mortgage-backed Securities So if you think that this is the bottom of the market, not knowing that we haven't even really focused or experience the quantitative tightening to the full degree yet, and knowing that inflation could possibly begin to go up, this is just the concern that I wanted to bring up to you. Not that you need to be scared I believe that the markets will always eventually recover. My thing that I'm telling you is on this one hour time frame, right? If we look at QQQ we can see this beautiful uptrend pattern since January 6..

we've been struggling to make new highs I Believe because of what was reported today, the Market's going to take some time to digest what was just reported and I think what's to come is going to be more like a wave. I Think once. and because the market is so overbought based off of this recent rally and it's hesitating to pull back that when it does, it will come quick and it will come hard. That was not what it is, not how I wanted to say it, but well, now we won't forget it.

Okay, I just wanted to make it a point that I believe because of this CPI data report that it will begin to be challenging, especially if you don't know how to short right. The thing that I always focus on is it doesn't matter if the Market's going up, it doesn't matter if the Market's going down. I focus on one thing and that's Market Direction And one thing that I always try to preach to our learn plan profit members is always respect the other side I Don't care if you're a bull I don't care if you're a bear, but it's understanding current market conditions and when it's deciding or taking time to decide if the Market's going to go up or the Market's going to go down to, please make sure that your position size reflects an uncertain Direction with the market. So all that means is it doesn't mean that you need to be scared to take a position or to take advantage of opportunities right now as we continue to consolidate.

but if direction is unclear or we continue to consolidate within the same range for Nasdaq Then again, just know that we could see a nice pop-off or that we could see a nice drop. I'm getting ready for a drop, but I'm going to take it day by day. That doesn't mean that I'm only going to take short positions. That's what I did today and I want to show you that, right? but that doesn't mean That I'm going to do that every day, right? My position is relatively pretty light from what you guys are used to I sometimes take four hundred thousand dollar positions.

My position right now is right around seventy thousand dollars. That's what I left myself with. Why? Well, it's a little bit lighter because again, Market direction is still unclear right now. If we begin to trade above the moving average and begin to make higher highs, then I can justify being more aggressive with my Sqq position.

It all comes in stages. I don't have to be super aggressive early on and hope for this to happen. Please All I ever say is again, if you're a bully or a bear, just make sure that your position size reflects the certainty of the Market's Direction That's all you want to make sure that you can tolerate worst case scenario and by being more lightly invested, I can tolerate worst case scenario and that's what I'm really excited for Bull Market or bear. Market There's always money to be made and again, the only people that get burned are those that did not prepare.

In a way to prepare is you can stay cash or you can have a light enough position that you can take advantage of the dip if the dip actually presents itself. So I'm very excited to follow up. I Wanted to explain the current CPI data report where you can get access to and I Wanted to share my thoughts on what I think is to come. I Don't think that this was a good CPI data report I don't I don't I've already seen specific news outlets of some people trying to celebrate that inflation is still going down.

I I Think that they're just trying to prolong this little Bull Run that we've had for the past month. Uh, but like we all know, pullbacks will always happen. It's not an if, it's a it's a when and pullbacks will always happen. The longer that you prolong it again, the harder that it will correct itself.

So I really do appreciate you at this time I Hope that I earned a thumbs up again. I'm not here to trigger any bulls or any bears again. I I Think that there's so much money to be made in this market. My Success does not take away from yours nor by vice versa, right? So if you have any questions again, I'd Love to hear you out in any way that you want to reach out to me.

If that's via Discord or via Instagram that's going to be the first or third link in the description down below. I Do want to remind you that I do trade live every morning with My Learn Plan Profit Group meaning that they get to see my entries and my exits and here most importantly, hear my thought process behind every trade. They get access to our A2Z video Lesson Library that's designed for complete beginners. They could ask access to my daily live trading session.

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It's 150 off and you can watch me trade live as soon as tomorrow at Market open I Appreciate your time. Hope that remembered. A thumbs up! Please consider subscribing and like always, let's make sure that we're in the year on our green now. Take it easy team.