Welcome back to meet Kevin Report number 23 Today we cover CPI it is Valentine's Day which means today is that day. We've got a 69 off flash sale going for the programs on building your wealth, link down below and shadowing experiences. so can I get a Hallelujah for that? I think Uh, Okay, I had to do it I Brought the soundboard back. We had to do it anyway.

Welcome Back! We've got a lot to cover before CPI comes out. We've got about 54 minutes before the CPI data comes out. Worth starting with some facts first: a New York Fed survey shows one and FL one year inflation expectations A little change: one year at five percent, three year down to 2.7 versus 2.9 prior, and the five years sitting at 2.5 versus 2 for prior relatively stable. And remember, inflation expectations are probably the most important thing that the Federal Reserve is working on massaging down right now.

Although they've been relatively stable, which is good, at least they're not running away. Obviously today's inflation report, you could create, uh, some bad news. and they can also create some good news so we'll see it's going to be very fun. Uh and again.

We'll cover that in about now. 53 minutes. We've got uh Joe Biden planning to sell an extra 26 million barrels of crude oil in the Strategic oil Reserve 180 million barrels were tapped last year and the reserve is now sitting at its lowest level since 1988. Three, we do plan to refill the Strategic oil Reserve when we get closer to seventy dollars a per barrel.

Based on information from the Uh Biden Administration But so far no rebuying. It's just more selling which has led the price of oil to start falling a little bit. uh, oil still elevated from what we've seen at the beginning of the year, still sitting at about 85 for Brent 78 to 4 WTI shy of that 100 that a lot of commodity Traders Keep talking about a lot of commodity Traders suggesting oh, it's China China is going to drive those oil prices up so far that has I would say I would go as far as saying failed to materialize Bridgewater Capital dumped the following stocks in accordance with their latest 13f filings. They dumped Nvidia AMD a Caterpillar and Micron looks like they're getting out of chips and Tech but that's okay.

that leaves more room for me. They did end up buying the S P 500 Bank of America Berkshire Wells Fargo Goldman block JP P.m City and BlackRock really interesting to see Bridgewater Capital that's uh Ray Dalio's uh old for uh, firm. He's obviously since left as a leading position there. but a big move here into financials, which is really interesting because of the fear that hey, well, what happens if individuals start spending less or start defaulting more on loans as a potential recession or slow growing economy drags on.

Interesting take. They also decreased Holdings in some of the Staples which I completely agree with I think Staples were substantially overbought in 2022 and they have some suffering ahead of them. Those positions include Johnson Johnson Costco Google McDonald's Microsoft MasterCard uh Pepsi and one of my favorites that I'm super bearish on right now, although this could end up being egg in the face today is Airbnb We'll see the report earnings later today after, uh, the closing bell, so we'll see. We'll see.

You know if we get a really good and optimistic CP Pi report and we get a sort of a bull run on on CPI Who knows, Maybe just maybe it'd be a great time to double down on the shorts For everybody who knows, who knows. I'm pretty bearish, but then again, maybe maybe the markets are already thinking uh, of being bearish. You know, I'm I'm just I just happen to be a little bit of a bear when it comes to Airbnb and happen to be standing in a corner and shouting yeah Anyway, so Palantir also reported uh, they they were profitable in the quarter and that's because of a big boost in other income, which I thought was quite interesting, but uh, otherwise, they're actually growing quite well. Uh, they are at a 22 operating margin.

they uh, they did come in a little bit soft on the guidance for 2023, 2.205 billion versus the 2.28 expected. Still though, free cash flow sitting at 75.8 mil in the fourth quarter. They're uh, they're coming in with an expectation of Uh revenue of 508.6 versus 505 and rev. uh, you know.

Okay, let's take a look here at uh, a brief just a brief moment here into Uh their investor relation sheet commercial Revenue Actually growing more than government rent Revenue Growing It's actually one of the big things that you want to see continue. at Palantir, you get a little bit more transparency with that commercial Revenue than you do that government revenue Uh, and you can see here that overall company Revenue Growth about 17.5 percent margin slightly weaker on cost Revenue but basically stable compared to 2021 coming in at 20.5 percent. and they did have a loss from operations, but they had that boost there of about 44 mil from other income. However, this is now getting a lot of folks excited that penalty are now officially will no longer be deemed profitless Tech and instead could be deemed profitable of attack, which has a lot of people very, very excited.

Uh, Palantir has obviously been something that's been heavily covered, especially on social media. And so the fact that now, uh, you've you've gone to a positive net income compared to a very long period of losses, it has folks very, very excited. Uh, now, something that we can do quickly is just try to understand the valuation. Usually, we do stuff like this on a daily basis.

In fact, we actually go substantially deeper into fundamental analysis and the course member live streams. Remember, we've got the flash sale going on Linked down below: it is a 69 off a flash sale for Valentine's Day at Valentine's Day. But anyway, coming in at an expected an expected 19 cents of earnings for 2023 and a stock that is currently in pre-market up 18 at nine dollars, you're looking at a stock that currently is trading for about 47 times. It's uh, its earnings sitting at about a 20 growth.

Uh, on a revenue which is not how you're supposed to calculate Peg. but that would put you closer to about two and a half times. Peg If that were to translate directly to EPS, you'd be about two and a half times. Peg However, if we expect that growth to be somewhere around, it looks like wall Street's thinking about closer to 24 25, you're actually sitting at closer to about 1.9 times PEG ratio.

So as long as they stay profitable, it's actually not too horrible. Uh, of a multiple. So that gives us a little bit of intel on Palantir. So congrats to those of you uh, investing in Palantir and looking out for account here.

Let's say other important things obviously to pay attention to for Palantir is, hey, what? What? How sustainable is some of this other income? Do we even need it on the basis of projections to keep going? Uh, and uh, to stay profitable going forward? You can also jump over and look at their assets. You've got assets right now sitting here. Look at this cash folks. 2.6 billion dollars of cash sitting around at Palantir I Mean that's phenomenal that that already gives you plenty of buffer.

But that you know talking buffer implies that you're actually spending cash, right? Well, we can go to the cash flow statement I Love me some cash flows and even though they had an operating loss, their net cash provided by operating activities because of the software. As a service business, a business that basically takes 80 percent of their revenue to gross, uh, profit, which is really, really incredible. What you end up having is you have net cash provided by operating activities here of around 223 million dollars. So you've got this company pounds here that's actually printing cash from operations.

Really, really good. Uh, in fact, the reason you have close to a loss uh is because the stock based comp for the year ended in 2022 here was 564 million dollars That obviously comes off of the share. Uh, or it's basically shared dilution. So if you're an investor in the shares, it dilutes you.

but it doesn't actually affect the cash position of the company. So why companies love that if you look at free cash flow for the year, you could just subtract PPE here that's plant property and Equipment you've got over 180 million dollars of cash flow for the year of 2022, Which really, absolutely incredible. And the expectation is that cash flow is going to continue. So really, you have the opportunity here to increase your cash without taking on more debt.

Uh, I Don't actually let me see. let's see how much debt they actually have. We got some payables and current liabilities here. Quick math: that's about 210 mil.

I'm not going to count deferred, rev or cuss deposits or lease liabilities. so you've really only got about 210 million dollars in current liabilities here. If we look at non-occurrent liabilities, you've got maybe another 12 million dollars. Holy Smokes, the capitalization structure of this company is actually extremely good.

I Mean you're looking at under 100 and what 30 120 ish? call it. Look, call it less than 150 million dollars of actual current liabilities that aren't like customer deposits or deferred revenue. Uh, you've got cash, just straight up cash sitting around of almost 2.6 billion dollars. On top of that, you got some marketables over here.

Who cares? So call it 2.6 billion dollars of cash in the bank? Ola Uh, versus uh, maybe only about 140 million dollars of current liabilities. Like bills to pay, Holy Smokes, this is really well capitalized. I Mean you have 18.5 times as much cash as you actually have current expenses. and I think the big reason here for that is is the company is basically paying everyone in.

Stockholm Uh, it's phenomenal how much money they spend in in stock comp. I Mean look at this: their sales and marketing expenses are sitting at about 700 Mill here. total of Opex For a moment with me, go down this journey with me. look at total Opex You're sitting at 1.65 million dollars for uh, the year end 2022, right? We'll go over now to stock base comp for the year end.

You're looking at 30 percent of all of their operating expenses just going straight out of the shares rather than cash. and that's letting them build up this cash War chest which that you know it doesn't really matter what they do, as long as you believe in the leadership. Uh there. uh you know you would expect that cash could be deployed well, especially in the SAS Biz Uh, and really, you know a lot of companies that have this much cash.

What they end up doing is they end up blowing it all on uh, sales and marketing. In other words, they just can't help themselves. So they spend everything on sales and marketing to prop everything up as as extremely as they can. uh during the good times and that can be really dangerous because then they don't have any cash saved up for the bad times.

But look at this company. this this is almost all you really need to know to see that this company is actually and I'm not invested in this company. but it actually goes to show you they're being very conservative here. They grew their sales and marketing expenses at just 17.

whereas uh, look at that, their revenue grew at 17.5 percent. you grew Revenue more than you grew sales marketing. That's a number one criteria right here. This is great.

This would be concerning if the company here plowed all of a sudden. You know 50 to 100 sales and marketing growth into sales and marketing and only grew Revenue at 17.5 right? But the fact that they're roughly matched here is phenomenal. And then look at this. they actually cut spending on research and Dev and GNA showing they're working on their operating leverage, they're operating efficiency.

This is. Look, you know what this is this. This is pretty impressive. I Have to say, you know props to pound to your year.

Uh, this is a very, very impressive statement. I Mean even if you take out their other income uh, of this, 44 million dollars of, uh, question, mark money over here even if you take this out, Uh, 17.8 million dollars of a loss for a company that has 2.6 in the bank, that's a joke. In other words, it's really, really good. You can't poop on this company, especially not with nearly an 80 gross margin over here.

And operating leverage that's actually increasing. This is: this is a very impressive report. I Mean this is a company that honestly, it deserves to be up 18, maybe even more because uh wow, congratulations. That's all I could say for Palantir, that's great.

Now what we might do when the course member livestream is, go through the earnings call and get a little bit more color in terms of what the executive staff is thinking for the company. uh, going forward and uh, how uh, how much are we growing that commercial side of the business I'm a big fan fan of seeing growth in the commercial side of the business for Palantir, they've also obviously got the buzzword of AI but it's more than just a buzzword for Palantir. Really? with Palantir, you actually do have uh, the basis of what they do, the software they provide uh is artificial intelligence? I Mean it's your really? Originally, it's been considered your government version of snowflake. Obviously, they're different, but they've got similarities in that.

Let's give you a lot of data and you start making connections. Whether that's on, uh, you know, uh, their Gotham business. uh for for Public Safety and public security. But think about just the idea about police forces.

Uh, it's also kind of scary. police forces, for example, loading just all of their big data in and then getting reports back that say things like hey, you know the AI thinks we might need an officer on 32nd and Broad today and then all of a sudden they prevent crime because the AI suggests, hey, we might need someone here because crime is statistically increasingly likely to happen in this particular area Today, It's phenomenal and I'm just scratching the surface of really what this kind of software can do. Uh, honestly, my explanation is is like oversimplified. It's like a five-year-old example of of what this stuff can do.

but now multiply that by the entire government. the CIA The FBI police forces across the United States Kind of scary what the stuff can do, but it's also really incredible from a logistics point of view. What these folks can do for commercial Enterprises uh shipping Logistics I Mean they're it's it's scary. but uh, you know, Then again, we're going into a big data in world of AI So and somehow they figured out how to make it wildly profitable with a whole lot.

a whole lot of cashola. So look, even though I'm not in it I Have to say this looks pretty sexy and makes it sound like yeah. Anyway, all right, so that's pound two. let's see what we've got going on else here.

Uh oh, we got a lot to cover. Uh oh yeah, we gotta talk Tesla here just a moment. All right. Uh, standby for a moment.

Okay, so let's get into Tesla Kessler Kessler and quickly. Just see account here. Also has some gold bars. Nice.

What time does CPI data come out? CPI Data comes out in about 39 minutes. Um, brain neuron chips activated. Yeah, no kidding, right? All right. so let's cover some other news here while we wait for CPI Oh, this was interesting.

Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina running for president. In case you haven't heard the news, Mickey Haley is now the first official Contender to run against Donald Trump for president. She has entered the race of for president. she's 51 years old.

She spent nearly two years working under the United Nations on behalf of Donald Trump She was a member of the House of Representatives for six years in South Carolina and then of course recently she's been the governor of South Carolina Now I Have to say I don't know terribly much about her plans. Uh, and so what I decided to do was go over to her website. Uh, and I I Hate to say it, but so far there is there is no plan. uh that I could see.

that's not to back on Nikki Haley Here, it's just okay. Obviously we got a lot of pitching and ideas here for uh for for donations. A lot of support and donation links. A lot of stuff to click on for supporting and getting involved.

Okay, pretty typical for a politician's website, but what drives me nuts is there's really no like plan Now it does give a record of results and this the idea and politicians do this. The idea here is that well just look at what I have actually done and that'll carry forward. Okay, fine, that's fair because she has been a politician and so of course this is just straight from her website. Uh, she has pushed for tax cuts at the government level you've seen actually, or at the governor level.

You've actually seen some of this flow through to Property Owners Now some folks say, hey, that's a republican ideal That's exactly what we want. Others say, hey, wait a minute. we don't want tax cuts for property owners We want you know, uh, better programs for everyone who knows. But anyway, you clearly see her uh here.

defend herself as uh, someone who stands for abortion rights cracking down or or you know, basically preventing abortion. uh, the right to life. It's very pro-life cracking down on illegal immigration protecting our elections. Now this is very interesting because uh, you've you've got a lot of resistance uh from the Republican party, uh, often on, uh, on on, um, uh, like vote by mail for example.

uh, and uh, and a lot of vote by mail. states are really into protecting elections with security requirements uh, and ID requirements which is also something you're seeing Nikki Haley Talk about here. Uh, regarding ID requirements. However, Uh, one of the big things that, uh, obviously you would expect to see a difference on is this idea that in States like California they mail you a ballot whether you want one or not and this is how you end up getting people, uh, caught with a bunch of vote by mail ballots.

Now technically the government's uh, like in California they say, hey, don't worry, we are going to make sure people can only vote once. Uh, you've got X Expanding Education Freedom Usually what you see here is talk around school choice right? Being able to take the money that's allocated to you as a citizen and spending it. How you want increasing competition for schools by allowing people to essentially select their uh, their own school and that could potentially give rise to more charter schools and private schools competing against public schools. Defending the Second Amendment I mean very very Republican Ideals here in terms of uh, looking at sort of a track record: uh, getting tough on China right sanctioning North Korea getting tough on Russia I mean these are very Republican ideals and those are just some of the headlines.

But Nikki Haley is about the uh second person to enter the presidential race and we'll pay attention to what some of our plans are going forward and how it, uh, how it evolves in the race against Donald Trump I Think one the the big things that you want to pay attention to uh in this race are going to be obviously everybody's looking at Ron Santis, How are people going to be able to compete against him? And really, what's interesting about Ron DeSantis is no, no indications that he's actually entering the race right instead. What is he doing? He's still working really hard as as governor in Florida that's not saying that. Nikki Haley isn't, but you're seeing a lot of action in Florida like for example, uh, the legislature in Florida just gave Ron DeSantis control of Reedy Creek which is the district that controls Disney uh, a Disney World's land uh, and has to do with controlling and providing for police uh, fire and and some of sort of the governmental functions that are being provided by this special tax District that Disney World funds. And so you've now seen that the governor of Florida has taken control of that district and not only taking control of that District but potentially uh, could could, uh, you know, select the the board members who who handle more of the day-to-day uh appointments within that District On top of that, you've got a lot of folks looking at Ron DeSantis as being the person who's actually going to usher in real crypto reform if he becomes president in 2025..

So you've got a lot of crypto enthusiasts sitting on the sidelines saying let's just wait for DeSantis And we know there's a lot of money in crypto, so be interesting to see where the crypto money ends up flowing. But uh, you know, on top of that, you've also got a lot of resistance from existing donors to Donald Trump I mean you've got Kenny G Ken Griffin from Citadel who's donated a lot of money to Donald Trump in the past. But unfortunately for Donald Trump those donations and that support from Kenny G at least has stopped it stopped from the Alderson family as well that was the largest owner the Koch family has stopped donating to Trump Uh. In fact, the Kenny G has gone as far as calling Donald Trump a three-time loser.

really suggesting he's not terribly interested in supporting uh Donald Trump Again, Uh, so I think that's pretty obvious. Uh, somebody calls you a three-time loser. They're probably not going to donate to you. but anyway.

uh, this is interesting. You've got your second official candidate. You've got a lot of eyes now on. Nikki Haley Uh, Donald Trump Ron DeSantis Rhonda Santos Probably still The Unofficial front runner.

but we'll see how Nikki ends up differentiating herself from Ron DeSantis both Governors. And then, of course, there's always that sort of quiet rumor that if Joe Biden doesn't run, you'll end up getting people uh, who decide to run like maybe Kamala Harris or uh, or Gavin Newsom which I think Honestly, if you get the governor of California or Kamala Harris running whether you're a Democrat or Republican I think we would probably almost all agree that there's a chance of that that you'll just end up going for. You know this: Society or America will end up going for a moderate Republican. Who knows, we'll see, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's sort of the direction the the United States ends up getting taken.

We'll see, we will see. And yeah, as Steve says here, Donald Trump has Nfts to back him. You know that's one way you can save. Uh, that's one way you can raise money, you know I Hey, you know I Hate to say it.

Okay, I hate to sound jaded, but we know that Donald Trump uh offered the Nfts to help essentially fund his campaign and what was really incredible was they didn't tell us how many of the Nfts were they were going to sell and so there were a lot of people that were bagging on Donald Trump suggesting oh, you know this is terrible, This is terrible And so the way Donald Trump uh clapped back or that the Nfts were a joke, right? And the way Donald Trump clapped back was oh, two days or three days later, well now they're sold out I guess you snooze, you lose and that sort of gave a lot of Trump supporters the ability to to support Donald and say hey, look, you know, guess it wasn't that much of a joke after all jokes on you Donald Trump Sold out of his Nfts. But one of the things you have to remember about when it comes to marketing something that has a limited Supply or something that's a new drop is Donald Trump's attention on these Nfts much like a meme stock, went like this and then basically straight down. Now that's obviously very, very normal. Again, much like a meme stock.

You know when you announce something, it's going to be most popular up front. And so generally along with this sort of trend, you're going to get most of your sales up front. In fact, you can fact, check this by just going to Google Trends really quick. I'll hide myself on screen here and you'll see basically here you go: no attention for Donald Trump Nft.

All of a sudden, you get the December 11th, the 17th period, a massive Spike, and then a complete plummet. This is very typical. this is what you see in Momentum stocks, just like in the Donald Trump Nfts. And so this idea that Donald Trump sold out of his Nfts probably ended up being whatever sales they were going to get.

They had no idea how many sales they were going to get. So whatever sales they were going to get is what they ended up taking as as a satisfactory, uh, amount of sales. So let's say, for example, initially you get maybe 1 000 sales and then it ramps up to 5 000 sales. and all of a sudden you're at 20 000 sales.

But all of a sudden, the new orders coming in trickles to basically zero. Uh, it approaches zero. Kind of like a limit in calculus, right? You're approaching zero in sales on the Nfts. Then then what you do is you just come out and you say, all right, That's it.

We're sold out whatever number you have achieved at that point. So say it's 24 000, right? Okay, fine. Cut it off. You're getting a trickling of sales anyway.

So really, the odds of you going from 24 to 25 000 in sales is like zero unless you have some kind of new Sales Event So then you just cut it off at that point, that's sort of the sales and marketing trick to make it seem like oh, that's it. We're sold out. Yeah, but you never told us how many you had up front, so you could kind of just arbitrarily say you sold out once the sale stopped. Kind of a just a trick in a game there.

but some folks had curiosity about that. So there you have, uh, that, uh, and then uh, then you've got comments here like uh, Joe Biden doesn't know he's alive and all Kamala Harris can talk about is electric buses. Okay, well there you have. uh, two samples.

uh from uh, the peanut Gallery. Okay, moving on. So uh, uh, now we gotta talk. Tesla we've got uh, 29 minutes to go before CPI and talking Tesla we gotta talk tough about Tesla All right I'll stand by.

All right. take a sip of this coffee out of the deal. There you go right. Oopsies I spilled.

Oh well, how did I pull that I think I got so excited about talking Tesla that that I spilled you know what? I have um I have a Post-It note here. So I'm just gonna lay the Post-it note on it and so I could just rub it around like in bacon pie I've never baked pie in my life I don't know what I'm doing all right Tesla talk. Three big things we gotta talk about for Tesla First, I Want to talk about who just bought the dip and uh, how much of the dip they bought? Then we've got a that's the Tesla dip going back to uh, you know the lows of near 100 who did it? who done it? We got to talk about what Toyota is trying, what just happened with a union, uh, potential announcement with a Tesla which uh, some folks are not very enthused by uh and uh. well.

let's get into it all before: CPI So first when it comes to Tesla, we just heard that George Soros about the day bought the dip pretty heavily in the fourth quarter of 2022. Which what's interesting about that is that's when Tesla was getting smashed as people were tax loss harvesting. Tesla was just going lower and lower and lower every day basically going into Q4 And what did we just find out? Well, it turns out that George Osoros and George and and the Soros fund management scooped up 242, 399 shares of Tesla during the fourth quarter, they increased their position Uh, roughly a 270 percent. Uh, that's incredible, bringing the funds total Holdings to 332 000.

that's remarkable. That means they went uh from about 90 000 shares to uh about 332. That's remarkable. That's about a 3.6 x.

That's amazing. During the quarter, Uh, the fund also bought 500 000 shares of Kathy Woods Arc K which we know did very well in January of 2020. So what a what a well-timed bet on uh getting back into uh basically Tech year to date Arc K is up 30 also unloaded his position in Zoom video ended up acquiring 83 million shares of Peloton He also what took a stake in Carvana which is on the edge of bankruptcy and a stake in Lift That One Lift and Uber Well, Uber did well after earnings, but Lyft was down about 30 percent after earnings. So uh, maybe not the best Uh position right there.

smaller stake in Silvergate Capital, smaller stake in Microstrategy also took stake in Square which is similar to uh What uh Black's uh uh oh a Bridgewater capital Did in Ray Dalio taking taking heavy positions into Financial firms. but this big dip buying in Tesla Pretty dang impressive. He also flattened his position in Etsy and Disney but on the topic of EVs and Teslas guess what? Toyota just did specifically Toyota The reason I say Toyota is because the now ex-ceo well come. April ex-ceo of Toyota named Mr Toyoda with a D was a big fan of focusing on hybrids, suggesting that electric vehicles solely pure electric vehicles were not necessary for a green future.

Instead, the best form of a green future is already here. And it's hybrids. Like the Toyota Prius says Mr Toyota that you don't actually need purely electric vehicles because the greenest form is having a smaller battery and actually an internal combustion engine vehicle with a battery train as a battery EV powertrain inside as well. Which is really interesting because the amount of components and costs that go into hybrid vehicles substantially higher than just a pure EV vehicle.

Because you have one less entire system and a hybrid, you have both an EV platform and an internal combustion engine system in the gas tank. In an AV you only have one of those now, albeit you do have a larger battery and so Mr Toyoda has doubled down on this idea that hybrids are the way of the future for the company. Toyota That the Toyota Motor Corporation will not be purely focused on electric vehicles. This is, also, by the way, a company that has been anti-autonomous driving.

They've been a big proponent of. Look, we'll give you Lane keep assist uh Lane Departure alerts maybe even adaptive cruise control. But are we really heavily going to invest in autonomous driving? No, We just want the driver to be able to drive a hybrid and give them some support. Support Services That's been the big goal for Toyota And guess what? sales have fallen off a cliff Toyota Sales have been declining and declining.

and declining. And so what has just happened? Well, Toyota has decided to get rid of their old school mindset CEO and in April, the old school CEO Mr Toyota will be replaced effective April Koji Sato will be taking over from Mr Toyota and a Koji suggests that Toyota needs to undergo a drastic change And guess what they're going to focus on? Oh, Pure Electric Vehicles. Yes, that competition for Tesla is coming and these pure Electric vehicles will come first to the Lexus brand, which is obviously the more expensive Uh portion of the Toyota Motor Company. And don't worry if you're excited for an electric vehicle, you don't have to wait long.

You only have to wait until 2026 to get your Toyota electric vehicle because that's when the electric vehicle specialized manufacturing platform will be available from Toyota. Now obviously, so far, what we've been seeing from Toyota has been relatively unlikely to succeed given not only the evidence of declining sales, but also the fact that I think it's pretty damn obvious that people want more autonomy in their vehicles, not less and people want more electric, not more hybrid. But then again, Byd is also doubling down on the hybrid platform, but they're also doubling down on the uh, uh, the EV platform. So Byd is going with the both approach.

and finally, Toyota is realizing they're getting the message from consumers that no, no, EV is the way to go. You know what's crazy about this Before we talk about Tesla and the Union? What's crazy about this is there was actually a piece in the Wall Street Journal last month. Yeah, yeah, look at this. look at this last.

I have it here last month Uh, Toyota Chief says they're part of the Silent Majority and so the President Mr or the the CEO and President Mr Toyo da questions whether electric vehicles should be pursued exclusively and says that his company is part of the Silent Majority whether it's really okay to have a single option. And so in other words, Mr Toyota was was convinced that the future is basically hybrids like hydrogen pyrod cars combined with gas. uh uh, and and hybrids combined. That's a battery electric vehicles combined with gas.

Uh, so basically and then probably hydrogen and EV right? that would be your sort of other hybrid. Uh, but anyway, Mr Toyota was this big believer of, well, we don't think you only need one platform of only battery electric vehicles. and basically they've been, uh, they've been super anti EVs And it's interesting how within a month of this Wall Street Journal article, this guy is getting the ax kind of crazy. But what's also kind of crazy is specifically what just happened at Tesla and the letter that was sent to Elon Musk as well as ads that are being distributed via leaflets and websites from employees at Tesla Buffalo Yes, Apparently the Valentine's Day gift is yes, of course the 69 off coupon code.

Well, it's not a coupon, it's a flash sale. We're done with coupons. We got rid of coupons today. We have a flash sale.

Very different. Flash sale is today. Roses Are Red, Violets Are Blue. 69 off are for you for the programs on building your wealth link down below and the shadowing experience.

Whether you want education and stocks, you want education and the psychology of money, building your wealth as an entrepreneur, or you're looking to get into real estate which the opportunities are coming up, Learn everything. I Know about wedge deals? Check those links out down below. But what do you have here? You have employees now. Distributing Roses are Red, Violets are blue.

Forming a union starts with you. Yes, Employees at the Buffalo facility in Uh for Tesla New York are apparently a group of about 800 uh, or part of a group of about 800 labelers for the full self driving system for Tesla. So basically they label. Okay, yes, hey, we think this is a stop sign.

Okay, we think this is a traffic light. Yes, this is a truck or that is a car or that is a pedestrian right? and uh Elon Musk back in 2021. Talked about the future. Holy Grail of Uh AI was really Auto labeling that you could feed data into a computer and the AI would Auto label and then really, all you need is humans to confirm.

Is this absolutely yes a stop sign or is this a yield sign right? And so you have people confirming yes, Yes, yes, no, no, no right. And apparently the individuals are so frustrated working for minimum wages starting at Uh or starting pay of 19 per hour identifying objects. Individuals at Tesla Buffalo have gotten so frustrated that they can't get snow days when they want them and that they feel like they're being treated like robots. although they did take a job pushing a button.

Uh, that. and now they feel monitored and uh, feel like they can't take bathroom breaks when they want to take bathroom breaks. That apparently they are trying to start a union now. remember Tesla has about a hundred thousand people Tesla has been pretty anti-union so far if you can say that.

Uh, there have been rumors that individuals who've suggested unionization have just been straight fired. Uh, apparently a Tesla shut down a slack channel from this Buffalo New York group when they aired grievances about snow days and now they have a Discord server where they talk together and and strategize about forming a union. Uh, Tesla has uh and Elon Musk have suggested that they're not anti-union They just question, why would you pay union dues and give up stock options for nothing? That's something Elon Musk has said in the past and uh, uh, and it's It seems like Elon Musk has also been pretty anti-unionization for essentially this idea that unions only support Democrats and that you don't have unions who also support Republicans Of course, this could be hyperbole from uh Elon Musk But let's just put it this way: individuals at Tesla Buffalo are either going to get fired or they'll maybe be able to pull off forming a union. Now, the way this works in America is if the majority of workers for a company, potentially a specific portion of a company want to unionize, then they can file.

They can vote. and if the majority of those employees vote for a union, then they can petition the labor board and force the corporation to recognize that. Union But before that, the employer has the option to recognize the union. And so if the employer has the option to recognize a union, the employer could say no thanks.

Not interested in supporting your right to collective bargaining, which is basically being able to uh, go on a strike, right? uh and uh and and then demand changes like demand more pay or more sick days or snow days or whatever it is, maybe less monitoring. Whatever it is that that you're looking for. Now keep in mind these Auto labelers. They are basically doing the job of a robot now.

I'm not trying to minimize their Humanity like if you're watching this and you're a labeler like yes I I feel for you like I respect you. You're a human and you have human rights. But the reality is you did take a job that in the future will be replaced by a robot. So if you're watching this and you think the Union's going to protect you, realize that at some point in the future you're going to be replaced.

So I highly encourage you to come up with some kind of education, plan to to, or or at least plan to get out of there anyway in the future. But then again, hey, 19 bucks an hour for for uh, at a starting pay for for labeling. It also seems pretty good. You know I mean I remember starting to work at UH Jamba Juice or Red Robin and I got paid eight bucks an hour? No.

I'm not trying to like go into the past here, but like you know, oh that no, no I'm not trying to minimize that. You know labeling is is hard is not hard work. I'm sure it is exhausting, especially with the pressures you might get put on you from the company, but you know you're not running around stressed out, freaking out dealing with customers yes or no on a computer. You know that's kind of like maybe that's pretty damn good.

but then again, I don't know what pressures y'all are facing. Uh, so anyway, we'll see what comes out of that now. There's been a lot of talk about uh, unions in the United Kingdom actually leading to substantially lower productivity? No, no, there's obviously there are a lot of studies on unions and the benefits and and cons of unions, but one of the things that I noticed is uh in this particular piece here you have and this is a robo research piece right here. Uh, and they talk about how labor disputes have led to 4 467 000 lost working days in November in the Uh United Kingdom that's pretty remarkable.

Uh, and this how and they talk about how this really fuels discontent. You know how potentially unions amplify anger within a company and make people more upset and then at the same time, unions could potentially, uh, lead to less working days or lost working days, further impeding Supply chains making it harder for, for you know, basically Society to advance and prevent inflation. It's kind of interesting. Now, another thing that's kind of interesting is you've got somebody here in the comments saying that go Unionize Starbucks not Tesla Now you know what's actually really funny about.

That is one of the reasons that Buffalo New York Tesla is considering unionizing is because apparently a union leader from Starbucks is working with the individuals at Tesla to help them form a union. I kid you not a Starbucks employee It is reported by Bloomberg a Starbucks employee is helping the Tesla folks try to start a union So this is obviously leading some people to say hey, this is great. You know, spread the Union uh uh ideals and then of course you've got people on the other side saying this is like cancer. Once you start one cell of a union, it spreads everywhere.

It's Starbucks It's Amazon It's it's going to be Apple. Next it's going to be Tesla Who knows? Obviously. Obviously. Uh, if you are in a union, you have much more bargaining power for higher wages.

But then the question is, how does that affect productivity? Is there a chance you just end up getting fired? Uh, who knows. It seems like they're taking a big risk, but then again, if you're getting paid 19 to probably what 24 bucks an hour to push a button, maybe you don't care that much about your job anyway and you're kind of like hey, let's try to unionize and if we can grade if I get fired oh well. I would expect that's probably the stance people are taking. but then again, you know you also look and go.

Tesla's one of the remaining Uh or one of the few auto companies I Should say other than some of the new ones that that don't have a union right? you look at a legacy Auto It's all Union United Auto Workers Union Massive, massive Union in the United States And a lot of people say that the fact that you have a union uh is exactly why it's been so hard for Joe Biden to mention the words Tesla or to actually invite Tesla to events and the only electric vehicle manufacturers electric vehicle manufacturers that get invited to White House events are like Ford and GM and it's only those companies that show up. It's only those companies that get sort of the uh, the support of the president. Uh, now you know. there have been a few mentions of Tesla since uh, you know, first, probably year.

uh, there have been zero. There were zero mentions of Tesla from the Biden presidency, uh, and administration. but uh, that's that. Seems to be loosening a little bit now.

but uh, we'll see. You know. I'm curious to know what, uh, what your comments are. You know, some people obviously? Yeah, you know.

Steve Here is saying if Tesla unionizes goodbye margins? Uh, and yeah, I mean that's entirely possible. You know what if that does spread and all of Tesla all of a sudden unionizes right? Is that potentially going to lead to factory shutdowns in the meantime, lower margins in the meantime? Would it lead to more productivity? Or is Elon Musk just gonna go? All right. Thanks unions. You just lit a fire under my ass to build more autonomy and robots to replace your jobs in the first place.

I I Have a feeling I know what is going through Elon Musk's mind, but I'll leave that up to your imagination for now. All right now we gotta get into shape. We are 10 minutes away from CPI 5 30 a.m Pacific CPI release. Oh boy, let's throw that up on screen here.

All right we have uh, okay, palantir down a little bit Now here in the pre-market palantir down about 13. Still, uh, still up pretty well here though. we've got the indices relatively positive right now. It seems like pretty much everything's positive in the pre-market I Think there's a lot of hope that this is the end.

Uh now. I'm gonna give you my CPI predictions now. Uh, these. uh, these predictions.

Uh, if I'm right I'm a genius and make sure to check out the programs I'm building your wealth link down below with the 69 off flash sale if I'm wrong I never gave predictions. so uh, my prediction is very simple. Uh, I actually posted this prediction yesterday in our Discord uh, right under a trade alert that I sent. So I actually do have trades riding on CPI I have trades both ways I lean one way.

Uh, but uh, I do have bullish trades and bearish trades on CPI I've got a strategy for what I'm going to be doing with those options. Uh, after the CPI report, uh, over the potentially the next hours and the next few days to few weeks here. so we'll see. But uh, my CPI projection uh is the following on screen right now again.

I Posted this to course members yesterday and this particular CPI projection I have is that we will see a month over month read of 0.4 and a core read of 0.3 Uh I actually like to start by coming up with the month over month figure and if I calculate the month over month growth figure then I can calculate the headline numbers thereafter. So with a headline of 0.4 which is 0.1 under the consensus estimate of 0.5 I get to about a 6.2 headline and a core read of 5.4 Now I do think that month over month headline is really going to be propped up still by housing and used autos. Used autos are still going to give us pressure of about 1.1 percent. Uh, Well, I should say 0.11 on that month over month read both Uh, core and headline and then of course housing could contribute solely of a full point two percent.

Now, in order for us to really come in dark and like low uh or actually it would be really great and low if we could come in low really, we would need to see housing disinflation start actually showing up in Uh In in the CPI report, the day we start seeing housing disinflation actually start showing up is I think the day uh, markets actually go to the moon And the reason I believe that is Some folks are worried that housing disinflation and wage disinflation isn't going to show up. but we have to be really clear. We are already seeing three forms of massive disinflation. It is already happening.

whether or not it's going to show up. In this report, We don't know. We don't know, but we are already seeing massive massive disinflation. And that's very, very obvious.

How is it very obvious? Well, we know that we're seeing Goods disinflation. That's clear. The statistics are already showing goods and disinflation, but in the leading indicators, we know that you already rent Matrix Zillow Rent Matrix and apartment list rent Matrix already show that new rents are plummeting, so new rents are falling substantially disinflating. As long as that continues, they will eventually show up with like a six to nine month lag in the CPI report.

Hopefully that lag Starts Now Although it's possible that rents still went up uh, per uh, you know, in on sort of a year-over-year basis, especially Uh for um, for the owner's equivalent rents and maybe even a lagging base is still uh for for the next few months, we might still see uh, that lagging inflationary impulse for owner's equivalent rents. But we know from a market point of view, rents are already disinflating. And then when we look at wages, we know that wages are also starting to disinflate. Look at Uh Uber 36 more drivers, lift and extreme increase in the available labor Supply Not only do you have Uber and Lyft but Chipotle Hiring for burrito season is finding it easier to retain people and hire people.

Starbucks is finding it easier to hire and retain people and companies that are talking about Labor shortages. Uh, that. like for example, Tyson Foods Say that they've appropriately staffed now and they expect to hold Staffing levels stable and even though meat costs are going up, they can't raise prices anymore. Why? Because they're capped out, consumers just aren't buying anymore at higher prices.

so you're really starting to see the effects or or the leading indicators I should say of disinflation. Now when are we actually going to see disinflation show up? uh in these CPI reports? Who knows if we get a bad report now I Think it'll be an anomaly to the upside. uh. in other words, like we'll see an anomaly of a high read: I Hope not.

I Really hope we we see some. Mist To the downside again: I've got options on both sides. It doesn't matter. I mean hopefully the ones that I pick do well.

We'll see. uh. But anyway, when we look at JPM they give us some projections of what we could expect for CPI So let's go take a look at that. So here are those projections.

We've got five minutes to go before that rug pull and Cpli comes out. Uh. So here is what JPM is predicting JPM says any kind of print above 6.5 is a bearish outcome. This would be a sign.

potentially uh of uh, resurgent inflation. They suggest resurgent inflation. Uh, and it could. It could be driven by consumer services like travel and lodging.

I Think that's going to be a very big one that we want to pay attention to so we want to look at airfares. Used autos we know are up. But what about lodging? What about Hospitality What about restaurants, right? We know Energy Prices are up a little bit in the last month as well, so we'll see. Then we have this.

uh and this would potentially represent a decline in the S P 500 of two and a half to three percent. Uh and uh. Any print above 6.7 percent would just be like a worst case rug pull scenario, right? Anything between 6.4 to 6.5 percent, they give about a 25 likelihood. they see the S P 500 down about 0.75 to 1.5 on that.

This would be a little bit of your hawkish outcome. You're higher for longer outcome and potentially could solidify that 25 BP hike in March and maybe even May and June thereafter. If you get anything according to JPM between 6 and 6.3 which the consensus estimate is 6.2 they believe there's a 65 percent likelihood we're going to get this and you actually they believe you could see the market. as long as we get something in line, you could actually see the market rally and I believe the reason they believe this is the market has positioned itself relatively bearishly going into this.

there's been a lot of hedging. uh. going into this CPI report, you're seeing substantially more hedged positions. For example, on the S P 500 I'll show you a chart here that was on Bloomberg TV Take a look at this screenshot here for from Bloomberg TV Traders hedging S P 500 Downside: One week skewness.

Here, you just basically just look at the little chart on the right. You can see how it's basically as high as what we've seen towards the middle of December and really aligns with sort of the higher areas on the chart over here, basically showing you more hedging as opposed to less hedging, which for example, in the middle of January towards the end of January, we had less hedging. Now you're seeing more hedging. So uh, yeah.

prints below six percent obviously would be very bullish, but probably not going to happen. but if it happens, great. Absolutely fantastic. Now Uh, look.

I'm just gonna say it because I'm a big fan of of telling you what I think and I want to be very clear? Uh, as much as I provide information and value on an everyday basis to give you insight into what my thoughts are on and perspectives on whether it's bearish articles or bullish news, you know. I I am long-term bullish. Uh, on on this: Market I think we're in a longer term Nike Swoosh Recovery We could crash after if we get a bad report here. Uh, but longer term I Think you know three four years down the road, we're going to look back and go duh.

Inflation was transitory. Uh, you know it just ended up taking a lot longer than we expected. And that's what I'm seeing in the leading indicators from earnings calls, earning reports House Housing Service reports uh, even retail. and Hospitality just the leading indicators suggest deflation, not inflation.

Now we'll see. You know this: This CPI report is, uh, it's it's a month over month report. It's a report. Uh.

and I expect things to be very volatile. So far, we've been coming in low, right? I mean the last CPI report was, uh, initially negative. point one percent. It was actually revised up to point one percent.

and uh, you've got core that came in at point three. Uh, and then it pop was revised up to point four. So we'll see. and uh, you know what we have here is uh, I'll give you the consensus estimates right now.

so I'll put up the consensus. So year-over-year consensus 6.2 Uh, so I'll put the estimate year over year 6.2 You've got CPI month over month. Uh, consensus is 0.5 Core month over month 0.4 and core year over year 5.5 Those are the estimates. So I'm going to read out the actual numbers here in about 20 seconds.

All right. So uh oh boy, get ready. Oh, all right, let's uh, let's get some music here. All aboard.

All right. All right, 10 seconds there folks. 10 seconds. Here we go Here comes the CP lie data and the numbers are not out yet.

Okay, 0.5 match match high on the year over year. We came in at 6.4 That's bearish. Uh, core year over year came in at 5.6 We got a match on CPI month over month, match on core, month over month. So we got point five point four, year over year came in a little hot 6.4 and year-over-year core coming in at five.

A point. A six, six point four is a little bit hawkish. Unfortunately, JP Morgan told us that we could expect the S P 500 to go down. Uh, about uh, three quarters to to 1.5 percent.

Looks like in the market right now we have the market moving uh down about a half a percent on the QQQ. Uh, that we've got the Spy moving down. Uh, about only about a quarter percent. So now like a dramatic move to the downside, we hit expectations on uh on the month over month numbers.

But unfortunately we beat on those year-over-year numbers. So let's go ahead and get exactly what's in this report. Let's listen to CNBC Announced just for a moment here what they have the year over year core. We're expecting 5.5 It is higher at 5.6 but is sequentially lower than the 5.7 in the rear view mirror extending the Run of seven of seven Uh, from the excuse me, excuse me on the core, this is four.

All right. I Already read that crap here. Let's get into this. So this is the actual chart.

CPI Okay, these are the numbers that we have let's get into: I Want to see the actual items? So these are the overall items Overall Items: What did Shelter do? Shelter Shelter Shelter. Uh, Shelter came in in January at 0.7 My goodness, it's still so high for shelter. Remember, shelter has a larger weight. Now the weight for shelter and total shelter CPI has been moved up from 42.4 percent to 44.4 percent.

Uh, that's uh. that's pretty heavy. You've got Uh Transportation Services of 0.9 That's a big move up. Medical care Services That's actually good.

We want to see that disinflation over here. Negative: 0.7 You've got used cars and trucks. What? Who? What the hell? Who did that math? Used cars and trucks were supposed to move up two and a half percent according to the Uh A Met Him used Vehicle index and look at what CP Li is reporting. Negative: 1.9 percent for used cars and trucks.

What the hell? New vehicles at Point Two percent. We got apparel. Dude apparel's been getting cut like crazy. Apparel at Point Eight percent.

This is bizarre. How did used vehicles go negative here? This is very weird. Uh Medical Care Commodities Up one point One percent. Uh.

all items less. Uh. Food and energy Up five point? Uh, Six percent. Uh, for the 12-month about on the month over month you're looking at point four percent.

That's what we saw. Uh, that is quite interesting. Food: Uh, the food index. see four of the major six food groups increased month over month.

Let's see here: the index for Meats poultry, fish, eggs increased 0.7 percent. It's quite a lot. Eggs Rose Eight point Five percent. Yeah, that's definitely a lot.

Uh, okay. Food I Don't know how much we really care about index for food away from home Rose 8.2 percent over last year. Uh, all items less food and energy. Let's see here among the other indices that Rose in January was the index for motor vehicle insurance which increased 1.4 percent month over month.

That's not great seeing a lot of people potentially reduce uh, their car insurance. uh, by basically just canceling it to save money which is scary. Housing contributed the most to the monthly increase. Shelter accounted for about half of the gain.

Uh, yep, that's thanks to the new weighting as well the household furnishings and operations Rose 0.3 in January I'm actually surprised by that. I'm more surprised by that than I am. uh that we have a flash sale of 69 off for the programs I'm building your wealth link down below or the experiences build your wealth with stocks, psychology and money uh, the Elite Hustlers course which has custom live streams or get lifetime access to any programs are Building Wealth. But consider this household is now exposed to 44.4 of the index that's nearly half.

Uh, and uh, that came in at point. Seven percent. That's pretty hot, so no disinflation in housing. yet.

When we get disinflation here, you're going to see these numbers plummet. But this is really interesting here. Uh, to see uh, uh, you've got housing furnishes right? or Furnishings rising and apparel. That surprises me.

A lot of folks were expecting Medical Care Services Here to rise. You actually had a fall here in medical care services. And let's get the individual charts as well. It looks like no meaningful tick down according to what Wall Street is looking here looking for here.

No meaningful tick down they say in core Services excluding shelter. That's not great. It's really showing that you still have a sticky core Services a set of inflation. We're obviously waiting for that to decline, but we're not seeing it yet.

Uh, let's see here. I Mean, of course we did move down in general, but it's just not moving down quickly, right? It's not like super bullish over here. Let's start at the end of the detailed tables. here.

If we start at the end of the tables, we can really see where these core services are moving. So uh, the last column you're going to see is the month over month change between December and January. So if we go over here, what do we have? we have Financial Services Maybe tax season over here. A little volatile coming in at 2.5 percent, but that only has a 0.17 weight.

Personal services? That's not good. Point: Eight percent over here. still showing a move up here in apparel Services Laundry Funeral expenses. We want to see these start disinflating here.

These are the sectors that are going to get driven up by wages, right? Personal Care services at 0.2 percent, you have, uh, delivery services up 1.5 percent. This, it's still too much. It's not very bullish in my opinion. This is despite the fact that indices actually positive right now.

So a little bit of a surprise. But education, Maybe just because it's it is still trending down. It's just slowing. It's trending down very slowly, right? So it's not a bad report.

It's just sort of a neutral report. Yeah, we're trending down, but very, very slow. You're still sticky over here on Core: Services Pet Services up one percent. uh, photography and uh, processing here.

Or 2.7 percent that's sticky High Recreation Services Point Seven: I mean 0.7 Remember a point seven read is like eight point four percent annual inflation. That's a lot annualized inflation. airfares. Oh, let's go good.

You're starting to potentially see that price War Come in. Uh, this is something that United Airlines and Spirit have actually been talking about. United Airlines and Spirit have both been talking about this idea that hey, look if if, uh, our competition starts cutting prices, we're ready to fight. We're ready to reduce prices as well.

And it looks like you're starting to see some of that show up over here in. CPI Okay, that's good to know. So what else do we have here? You've got. Uh, let's see: Motor Vehicles You've got 1.2 percent on Motor Vehicle Fees Motor Vehicle Insurance 1.4 Public transportation down 1.8 but uh, car and truck rental up three percent.

It's a lot for a month over month. Read over here these are these are huge numbers, right? Uh, so still getting a push over here. Transportation service is point nine percent. Still very, very hot Medical Care Services Thankfully, coming down point seven percent, that's a good thing.

Uh, that's despite the fact that hospital related services are up point seven percent. these are pretty bearish numbers here on some of these service numbers. water, sewer, trash collection of 0.9 Shelter a point seven percent over here. Yikes.

Uh, your services less energy still point five percent. So you're still seeing that hotness over here. Uh, but the market almost suggesting this is this is pretty aligned with what they were expecting. NASDAQ Pretty much flat right now.

Not getting a lot of movement here. You've got alcoholic beverages up 0.6 It's a lot. Tobacco point seven percent. Uh, smartphones.

smartphones down one point one percent. So you're seeing that sort of goods disinflation. Sporting Goods I Don't know. sporty Goods At point five percent uh, photography equipment's down.

Toys down 1.2 percent. Two percent for hobbies? Uh, so this is where you would expect to see some of the disinflation, right? I'm surprised that used cars are down here since the used Vehicle index actually showed up. So that's uh, that's definitely a surprise. Excuse me there for a moment.

Apparel: How is apparel Rising 0.8 Especially men's suits, outer closing and underwear, outer closing and underwear up up 5.5 It's going on. Uh, you've got Bond yields pretty stable though the 10 years down about four basis points sitting at about 3.68 Pretty stable. High There for Real Estate You know I I'd say this is a pretty mixed report. You have uh, you? you really? what you have is you have a report that's saying look, inflation is trending down Uh, which is great.

That's fantastic, but it's trending down very slowly. Housing contributed half the increase. You're still not seeing any of a decrease in housing. You're still not seeing the services disinflation that you really want to start seeing.

Now Yes, we have leading indicators like uh Chipotle easier to hire, less labor turnover Uber More available drivers. Uh, a 36 percent more available drivers Lyft fell 30 after they talked about an extreme increase in supply of drivers leading to less Peak Pricing meaning less margins for Lyft Starbucks Finding it easier to hire people So interestingly, you are starting to see the early signs of disinflation and wages, but it looks like it's still going to be a few months before that actually shows up as well as the housing data. In fact, if you consider January of 2022 when we started seeing every earnings call basically to see the option or opposite that everybody's got pricing power that we're going to raise prices like crazy uh, what you ended up happening or what you ended up having happened was inflation ended up getting worse for about six months. So it took really about a full six months for inflation to really fully show up after those earnings calls.

So maybe the earnings calls are really a leading indicator six months out of what you could expect. But what's remarkable really is you didn't really have a peak of inflation until about July despite this potential Peak Pricing power talk in earnings calls in January That's a six to seven month delay. Well, now we're starting to get this talk about disinflation and wages and earnings calls. We might not actually see that come up in inflation data until about the second half of the year, w