Welcome back to Meet! Kevin Report: 24. 24 is my favorite number, but that also means it's been 24 days exactly in a row without missing one of these daily morning live streams. And not even just Market live streams given that we do them on the weekends as well. So welcome back! Thanks so much for being here! A lot to talk about today with some catalysts coming up.

Uh Ford We want to start off with Ford Apparently they have three shifts going or should I say had three shifts going a day, three working Crews seven days a week for their F-150 Lightning project and apparently now they have paused all production on the F-150 line specifically because they have discovered a potential problem with the electric battery system. Not so great for Ford a lot of people relying on those F-150s for Ford as investors to make sure Ford can actually prove itself as a company that can drive revenue and not just Revenue Avenue but also potentially gross margins in EV So far, gross margins and EV have been elusive for Ford Ford does not expect to be profitable on its electric Powertrain platform until 2026.. Now, what's most remarkable about this is you're starting to realize the industry finally, years later, is recognizing crap. We do have to go all in on EVS including what we learned yesterday where the CEO of Toyota Mr Toyoda with a D was first saying uh, we're just gonna stick with hybrids.

We want to give people a choice and then if you stick with hybrids and give people a choice, that means not no necessary real investments into autonomy or self self-driving certainly not. or electric vehicle platforms. And what happened within a month of him saying that bye-bye he's getting the boot and now they're getting the new CEO Who wants to rejigger the entire our company and bring Toyota into a world of electric vehicles? also hopefully by 2026.? kind of interesting to see that that sort of like lag and I think it's phenomenal actually for for companies that are making the first move or advantages I think it's excellent. Excellent, excellent, Excellent.

So um uh, all right so let's go ahead and uh, let's see what else we have here we have. So that is what we've got for four. Uh, this was an interesting piece. Remote work apparently is costing Manhattan 12 billion dollars a year.

That's pretty crazy. Four thousand, six hundred and sixty one dollars per worker being spent in the city less per year times about 2.7 million people coming in to commute. Looking at roughly 12 billion dollars of less money being spent in Manhattan now post Pandemic? Yikes. It's not so great for uh, for Manhattan or for uh for New York But then again, some of that money might be flowing over to other areas whether it's Buffalo or Brooklyn or yeah, who knows.

Jersey maybe. so the money will probably still gets spent somewhere, but it seems like a dent for New York City Uh, you know I Also I Wanted to take a moment to clarify that today. uh, we'll be flying again, which is really exciting. We've actually got some interviews lined up over the next few days including today.

We'll be interviewing the uh, the executives over at Boxable so that'll be really entertaining. and uh We've also got some real estate to check out. so I'll be in Utah and Nevada later today and then back tonight I Want to make it very clear to because apparently people can't get that through their heads. Uh, but that's very few people I think most people understand it but I want to make it very clear again in case it's not that if you follow me on Instagram or you see my YouTube videos and we're flying around, it'll be very clear that me as in meet Kevin is paying for my flights and my travels.

so I can be the best potential CEO possible for our housing startup. It's not like raising money and then paying to fly around in a jet. that'd be ludicrous. Uh, so uh I want to be very clear about that? So uh anyway uh we're also going through which is great.

uh the next set of release of audited financials which will align with our reg. A and for those of you wondering for the startup househack Househack.com solicitations there for those of you wondering the uh, latest uh audit will go through December 31st. So the first audit was our formation audit and our initial raise audit. Next one goes through December 31st and the SEC will be probably going through both of them we expect and so we hope to be reggae approved by uh, hopefully April I I Don't think earlier is is a reasonable expectation, but hopefully by April and uh.

What's also very fascinating is that 10-year treasury yields have continued to move up uh, where? uh, today they're stable which kind of gives it. It really gives time for shopping for Real Estate which is fantastic from a buying point of view. excuse me anyway. Uh, so that that gives you a little bit of an update on that which I I think is pretty exciting.

So uh so yeah. Okay, so then uh, that is a brief update on that. So probably looking at April uh, maybe worst case may for something like that. So uh, then what else do we have? Then we've got uh, three questions that regularly come up.

Uh, a lot of people commenting TD I think TD reports after. Let me see here. I'll look really quick. Trade Desk I Knew they do report today, but I was pretty certain they report after.

but then again, I've been wrong in the past and I could be wrong right now so we'll see. But yeah, Trade Desk is a company that I believe is reporting today and they uh never mind they already reported they reported in the Am. Oh that's fantastic. Oh my gosh, they're up 12.

That's awesome. Uh wow, that's pretty incredible. So Trade Desk apparently up 12 here in the pre-market that's phenomenal and Trade Desk reported 24 Revenue growth reporting a 700 million dollar buyback Issues: Upbeat q1 Outlook Good lordy, this is incredible. Uh, that's that's really impressive.

Good job. Uh, this is. uh, this just came in here too not too long ago EPS comes in at 38 cents beats the 36 Cent estimate sales of 491 compared to 490 Uh, 0.5 for the estimate I Have to say I was getting a little nervous about uh because of the leading indicators in advertising Amazon's suggesting advertising is down you had Microsoft suggesting advertising is down Google was obvious that advertising was them Disney advertising down Netflix Advertising down like a regular linear TV advertising down. Every single leading indicator for Trade Desk was giving red flags and then they beat sounds a lot like Airbnb Uh, anyway, so uh, that's crazy.

That is really, really incredible. So congratulations to anyone in a Trade Desk. it's super cool. All right.

So one of the Uh questions I keep getting. Uh, it has to do with people beginning in real estate. So three questions you want to avoid or I shouldn't say that you want to avoid. But three three things that you should definitely pay attention to real estate.

Let's let's rephrase that. How about? here are three stupid things you should never do if you are a brand new home buyer. Now what I'm doing is I every day I'm going to try at the beginning of my market live streams where we hang out around 4 30 in the morning. I'm going to try to provide uh, three sort of little bits of financial suggestions for you I am a licensed financial advisor real estate broker as well.

This is a personalized advice for you, but I want to try to give three solid pointers that I think can help you build your wealth and so sort of bring it to the basics, right? And so three stupid things that almost all home buyers start with are things we're going to address here. The very first thing that you should pay attention to is the down payment. In my opinion, the worst thing people could do is save up a 20 down for a home in America The reason for that is our government via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans provides us a 30-year fixed rate loan options where you could put three percent down and potentially even get your down payment covered by calling up a local Community Development Corporation so just type into Google Ventura County Community Development Corporation or whatever County you're in and look for potentially down payment assistance options to help you. even with that three to five percent.

now, a lot of people get angry at me when they say wait a minute, why shouldn't you save up 20 for a home? Then you don't have to pay mortgage insurance. So let's break this down in two ways. Number one: when you save up 20 for a home, the odds are you're probably not going to be buying a home out of college or in your first job. So you're probably not buying a home before you're 25.

Realistically, you're probably not going to buy or be ready to have 20 down until you're in your 30s. And the downside about being in your 30s is once you're in your 30s, you might already have a significant other. You might even already have children I'm 31 and I already already have a seven-year-old and a five-year-old I don't have a baby anymore I don't even have a toddler anymore But I bought my first home when I was 19 because I bought that home with three and a half percent down an FHA loan. you have to live in the property obviously to put any less than 20 down.

Generally, if you're an investor in residential real estate, you're going to put a minimum of 25 down. And if you're an investor in commercial real estate, you're generally going to put 35 percent down. But for a home buyers who agree to live in the property for at least a year, they can put down three, three and a half five. Ten percent doesn't matter if you're a veteran, you can actually go as far as putting zero money down.

And so why is it important to think about getting into real estate earlier? Well, the problem with saving up that down payment is that by the time you actually do save up a 20 down payment, your housing needs have dramatically changed. Generally see, if you're 18 to 24, you could get by with buying a studio or a one bedroom, one bath house. Something really small, well beneath your means, doesn't have to be a dream home. In fact, you might even pay less for the property to buy than you might pay to rent.

Especially if you end up getting, let's say, a three bedroom home. And then you rent out two of the rooms and you essentially old school house hack right by renting out the rooms. say your mortgage is 200 bucks. You rent out two rooms for 700 bucks.

Now all of a sudden you're only paying 600 to live there. Plus of course, some incidentals. So in my opinion, starting when you're younger without familial obligations, whether it's a spouse or children or whatever, is a fantastic way to start getting into the ride of real estate. Now, we already know that the average net worth of a homeowner is in excess of 20 to 30 times that of a tenant.

This is relatively easy to study, and it's relatively available on the into webs, but the reason it's important is because you want to get on the path of owning many properties quickly. You want to do that as soon as possible, so the benefits of compound interest can actually start working for you. The beauty is when you start with a smaller property, at some point, you're going to move up to a larger property and that allows you to bank hack. which means you're putting three or five percent down on your first property.

You live there for a year or two, and then you move and you do it again. So you go from a one bedroom to a two bedroom and a two bedroom to a three bedroom and a three bedroom to a four bedroom. And before you know it, you've got four or five properties. How many poor people do you know that own multiple properties? Well, anecdotally, the answer is probably zero.

Generally, property owners who own multiple properties not just one rental and maybe their own home, but multiple properties are generally independently wealthy individuals. They could retire and live off their rental cash flow if they wanted to at some point, and so the benefits here are pretty obvious. But by waiting for a 20 down payment, most people not only delay when they end up purchasing their first home, but I would venture to say a vast majority of people never actually make it to 20 percent down. See, there's something regarding the psychology of money that I talk a lot about in my courses on educating folks to build their wealth.

Whether it's the real estate, higher income, or stocks, whatever it may be, There's a psychology to money that the more money you have sitting in a bank account, the more you, whether you realize it or not, take your foot off the gas, the Richer you feel The more you feel like you have a lot of money sitting in your bank account, the less likely you're to actually a potentially work harder or that side hustle to make some more money, and the less likely you are to actually save that money. In fact, in a study by Harvard they found that an individual who has one dollar sitting in a savings account is nearly 100 percent likely to spend it, whereas one dollar the same dollar of cash sitting in a brokerage account like a TD Ameritrade or whatever broker you would want to use is nearly 100 likely not to spend it. How Wild is that? Think about that. If you see the money, not only are you less likely to make more money, but you are more likely to spend it.

meaning you never actually get to the 20 down payment and you never get into Home Ownership It's better to live beneath your means. get something small when you're younger because again, you don't have the familial obligations, but you get in. You get started in home ownership you also have and and this is sort of like something that I'm I Don't expect people to actually follow this path that I'm about to say uh, but this is supposed to be sort of like that worst case scenario in the back of your mind because I Understand a lot of people who watch my channel I Think they're very analytical and they're very smart people and they want to get better in life. And so they think through their decisions very well.

Maybe they're less impulsive and one of the things that regularly comes up is, well, what's your worst case scenario If you can't pay for your property anymore, right? And let's say, you had to give the keys back to the bank. That'd be terrible, right? It could damage your credit for four to seven years. You don't want to be in a situation where you're in above your head, right? But let me ask you this: Would you rather go through such a terrible situation when you're 19 and you have basically nothing to lose? Or when you're 32 and you have kids and a family? Huge difference, right? Not only from an energy point of view, but the distance you have to fall so the risks are actually substantially later. The longer you wait, the more you actually increase your downside.

the more intimidating you make it to buy and the less likely you are to actually buy. Now that brings up the second big issue and a lot of people complain about mortgage insurance. They're like Kevin But if I have to pay mortgage insurance for the next 30 Years that means I'm paying an additional half to one percent on the interest rate. Essentially, it's it's mortgage insurance is calculated based on your outstanding loan balance.

It's calculated the same way the interest is calculated. So usually what you do is if you have, let's say a five percent mortgage and your mortgage insurance is one percent. You could basically do the math by just saying okay, my interest is six percent because it's calculated the same way. They're different items and the reason they're different items is actually really important because what you can do and most people do is after a few years of owning a property, Once you get your properties loan paid down to about 80 percent, you can actually apply to request a removal of mortgage insurance.

Now that doesn't work when the market is going down, which in 2023, the Market's probably trending down, it's probably not the best time to be buying until maybe later in the year, But who knows. Rates are still high. There's a lot of macro economic pressure, but that's really outside the purposes of of this video. What's more important is that you can get rid of mortgage insurance at some point in the future.

So usually people who think that they're stuck with mortgage insurance forever aren't thinking about the fact that the average length that somebody holds a loan is only five years. The average length of time somebody actually lives in a property is seven years, and most people sell. So most people end up getting rid of their mortgage insurance solely by refinancing by year five. But as soon as year two, worst case, year three, you could potentially just apply by paying for an appraisal with your mortgage servicer to get rid of mortgage insurance.

so you're generally not looking at keeping mortgage insurance very long. In fact, I bought a really good deal when I first bought my property my first home. I bought a wedge deal and because I bought a wedge deal I bought a property with three and a half percent down Finance The fix up through a three okay, 203k renovation loans an FHA chapter instead of 203b which is a non-renovation loan and by doing so I was able to build so much equity in the property within the first year of ownership that I refinanced in the second year qualified completely on my own. My income had gone up.

everything's great, and what happened? Boom Mortgage Insurance Gone now I'm in a conventional loan then I now I have equity in the property and no mortgage insurance. What do I do? Get a home equity line of credit which now I could tap 10 of the an additional 10 of the equity in my property for. And what do I do with that 60? Grand Boom. Buy my first rental property now I could have also used that to just buy and move into my next home.

It's not the path that I went down, but it's an option. The third mistake that a lot of people make and this is a simple one, is they just wait for their dream home. I Think this has a lot to do with the fact that they're saving up their down payment payment and they're trying to avoid mortgage insurance and they're so anxious about uh, they're they're you know, getting to that 20 that by the time they actually are ready to buy their home, they have no choice but wanting their dream home and then they potentially never end up buying so kind of crazy, but in my opinion, I would highly encourage looking into real estate sooner rather than later. and I would really encourage making sure you avoid the three mistakes we talked about in this video.

So if you found that helpful, leave a comment down below, share the video and thank you. So uh, that's a that's a a lot of people have been asking me about those things so hopefully that was insightful to y'all Uh, that is uh, three big mistakes home buyers should avoid I see it all the time. Uh so yeah. all right, let's see what we got here.

I Love the stupid comments when chat is public spot on advice. thanks so much. Can I buy that a vest I Know maybe we'll customize these vests one day. Can you look over why? I don't know anything about wire? uh I hate it when people send money for just like a random stock and they're like I'll do this like I'm not offended that you sent that, you sent money but I just feel bad because sorry we got stuff to cover, you know I can't drop everything for that I don't even know what it is is the problem.

and Encore Wire stock I mean the thing's a three billion dollar company? Uh, you know? who knows. uh like I don't know I don't even know what they do. So anyway, uh, does that work for cars, cars? How can you become a member from the UAE you know I think you're talking about uh like a channel member on the on the uh on YouTube here uh I'm not sure I mean if YouTube doesn't give you an option to hit the join button I don't know if that's available in your country, just make sure you're not trying on an iPhone or iPad you can't hit the join button on an iPhone or iPad but if you go on a computer, the join button might actually show up for you. Yes, sorry Hustle Smart I Appreciate you asking if you could borrow the jet.

nobody else is allowed to use. My jet is my baby. My jet. Nobody decides where that sucker goes.

but Kevin nobody decides anything about that plan. but Kevin and only Kevin goes on it I don't I I don't I don't do rides I'm not an Uber uh uh, well that'd be an interesting Uber but I think that's what airlines are for. that ain't me. So uh okay, let's go ahead and uh, let's touch on the next topic.

So the next thing that we've got to talk about Uh oh gosh, yeah, this is a good one. this is we've got to talk about what the heck is actually going on now with markets and I find it really interesting. So let's go ahead and start. I was wrong about individuals perception and Market responses to what would happen with Market data and I'm really surprised because I think there's a shift happening and I want you to think about the shift with me for a moment and I want you to see if you're seeing this same shift.

Okay, ready for this. This is really fascinating in my opinion. All right. So first, remember when all of this crisis started in January of 2022.

one of the crazy things about Jan of 2022 was that basically every bit of news in January of 2022, which is one of the reasons I sold Uh, I sold out of almost all I actually sold out of everything, went to 100 cash and then started buying into what I thought would be more recession resilient stocks later. But anyway, the problem you had in January of 2022 was that good news was equal to bad news. So in other words, strong Earnings strong PP Earnings eps growth. All of that equaled bad news.

Good economic news equaled bad. And the reason for that was everybody was worried about the boogeyman of inflation. How bad was inflation going to get right? That's what everyone cared about. Inflation Inflation.

Inflation. Now something really interesting happened by December of 2022 we got a retail sales report that came out. which is funny in some regard because today we also have a retail sales report coming out. but mostly I want to talk about this, this change here and I want to see if you're seeing this change in the market as well.

When that retail sales data came out, it came out bad. December Retail sales were bad. Like the actual numbers were bad. and the thesis of 2022 was, well, wait a minute.

The opposite of what was going on in January should be good, right? So bad news should be good for inflation, right? It's obviously bad for for earnings or bad for certain companies, but bad news should be good for inflation. So, but what you had in December was we got retail sales numbers that were actually bad and something really changed in December in December. All of a sudden, you had people worried about a recession. The idea that inflation was the boogeyman went away.

Inflation was no longer bad. What was bad was bad news. So bad news was truly bad Because it meant potential recession, right? It meant that we were getting pushed into a recession. Nobody cared about the idea of a recession in January of 2022 because everybody's like things are so great the Fed's gonna rug pull us with with massively High rates.

So why What mattered in January was rates mattered Inflation mattered This Is What mattered in January of 2022. Big difference all of a sudden. in December In December inflation did not matter anymore. And this is going to be interesting because obviously we just got a CPI report run with me on this.

All right. So inflation did not matter in January of 22. What mattered was a recession mattered. In fact, I would go as far as saying rates mattered less as well.

And then when you get over to January of 2023 and I'll say early uh, February of 2023. you had another interesting thing that happened. You had the Fed's terminal rate move up from about 4.9 percent uh, Market expectations to as high as 5.3 percent. So you had I'll write that down.

clearly you had 4.9 expectations cut. 1.7 percent by end of 2023 turned into 5.3 expectation. No. Cuts in 2023.

But what was crazy was the market actually did well. In fact, we got a CPI report that was bad. It showed inflation on a core level was still sticky core Services still showing a strong element of stickiness well above two percent. Yes, if you take Core Services minus housing, you're at an annualized rate of about 3.48 3.5 percent which is better than it has been.

But it was still a bad report in the sense that uh oh well. What if those used car auction prices start coming through and we start seeing an increase of getting used car prices? What if that Goods inflation slows down relative to when housing inflation might slow down right? And so what you ended up having was a report that missed on the headline numbers, right? We had a report that missed on two out of the four numbers and then two of the month over month numbers match. So you actually got a report that I would say was hot I should call it a hot report and what ended up happening? the market rallied. And that's because in my opinion, what did we learn in December of 2022? Inflation doesn't actually matter anymore and rates don't actually matter anymore.

What matters now is EPS Fear. That's what matters right now. What matters is not a recession or inflation or rates. What matters now is the fear of Eps Now earnings per share.

Fear is very interesting because what you're actually seeing happen is companies are waiting like the market. The market is waiting for the Catalyst moment of earnings. And so what you end up having is you have stocks that are trading like this. You get this sort of sideways trading and then all of a sudden here you get earnings.

And what's been happening as of late for many companies is as soon as earnings happen, you get a massive move. either up like Airbnb uh, you get a trade desk Tesla right or you get a massive move down. think lift. So in other words, look at how how markets have evolved here, how things have changed, and it's really important to think about this because if you're making bets on the market actually giving a crap any more about inflation.

Even though that's what everyone's talking about, it doesn't seem like what that's what the market cares about. The market used to care about inflation January 2022. all you had to do was go short the market because everybody cared about inflation which was getting worse, worse, worse, worse. Now that inflation is getting slowly better, even if it takes more time, the markets are not reacting to inflation as much anymore.

So the the economic sensitivity of inflation Has Fallen and What mattered more was this idea of a recession. But the reason a recession mattered is because of what it would do to company earnings. And that's why in my opinion. when we got our CPI report, markets are kind of like whatever man like.

even though it's hot, we don't care. We got that Catalyst out of the way. even though it's hot, we don't care. so much about inflation anymore.

We got cash to deploy. Let's deploy that cash. So while it was still a catalyst moment, even though the news came in hot, it ended up being a good thing for markets which kind of feels a little clownish, right? It's like how can inflation come in hot in the market rally? It's because people don't care about inflation anymore Market wise. And when I say Market I'm talking about stocks, right? Stocks don't care about that.

Stocks care about earnings per share Right now. look at all of the companies that have reported over the last uh, two months and see what happened after earnings. Usually you had pretty violent moves well above the expected moves for those companies and whether even if even consider and face, uh, you know, whatever, there are plenty of companies that we could look at, but the point being here is, for some reason EPS has become this substantially greater Catalyst And when we look at, uh, our expectations, we have to adjust them because when I say you know in this topic, I was wrong. What I'm saying is I Thought inflation disinflating.

Improving the disinflation mattered the most right now. I Thought the Federal Reserve's terminal rate mattered the most Now I'm realizing this: I Think relatively quickly because this is something that has just transitioned within the last month. Uh, and yesterday really reiterated that to me where I'm looking going. Why? this doesn't make sense.

What has changed? The market is not behaving the way it used to behave in 2022. It has changed and the reality is, when the facts change, you should change your mind and you should change your strategy. And so I think, especially if you're trading in this market or you're looking at Catalyst Something to know is it doesn't seem like inflation is the big one right now. Obviously, if inflation doubles up, it's going to be a big issue, right? But if you look at EPS that seems to be the big deal and that seems to be where, uh, whatever ends up happening.

You get the massive moves in stocks after earnings per share. especially once those catalysts are over because people are looking going. hey, what's the forecast? What's the outlook for the companies that I'm most interested in and companies that are saying hey, look, we're getting through this like trade desk or Airbnb despite potential red flags that have been seen and feared in the fourth Quarter. What you end up having is big old moves, big old moves.

So that's my take on on this massive shift that's happening. I Think it's important to pay attention to and we'll see what you think. Let me know in the comments down below. All right.

So let's take a quick look at uh, the pre-market here. let's see here and I guess I forgot to change this. Change this. There we go.

let's look at the pre-market here. and do maybe a little bit of Q A here. Um, Let's see, we live in a fantasy world and society's brainwashed. Okay, how about the debt ceiling? I Think the debt ceiling is we'll we'll end up getting raised I'm highly confident of that.

Uh, you know a lot of companies are beating on EPS right? It's important to consider that you have like 69 of companies beating on earnings per share and uh, uh. Revenue projections are coming in higher as well. Yeah, there are obvious obviously some companies that are missing. That's just the nature of not everything goes in one direction, right? Important to know: inflation doesn't matter because people don't believe it will come because people believe it will come down.

Yeah, that's potentially you said it. Nine months ago, eight to six percent is easy, Six to two percent is really hard. We'll see Ebbs and flows in probably a second run in 12 months or so. that says Troy Yeah, and it'll be interesting I Don't know.

I'm not the biggest believer in this sort of second run of inflation, but uh, who knows. You know, a lot of companies have gotten primed to think that the way to get through this economy is by uh, jumping. Uh, a price is basically popping prices so it's absolutely possible. Yeah, 69? Yeah, That's right.

Yeah. um. so pre-market right now looks like, uh, we've got bonds. Honestly, this 10-year treasury yield sitting at 3.75 pretty hot.

it's not going to be good for Real Estate now I I Think it's worth noting how housing is going to affect inflation and sort of what's to become in the housing market. But uh, let's uh, let's do a little bit of a look at the housing here. Let's see here. Okay, so we'll touch on housing a little bit.

You got some time to do that. Okay, it's done by E. Now we gotta talk about the housing market and the latest drama that's going on in the housing market. First, we already know that we've got a lot of anecdotal evidence, especially from what we covered just the other day of new Construction home builders alleging that home builders are potentially rigging their current contracts to make it seem like they still have good contract flow to manipulate appraisals to make sure their existing deals that are already in escrow actually close.

This is scary. But one of the big things that makes me want to really pay attention to what's going on in housing always starts with mortgage rates. Mortgage rates and housing are very correlated. This should be obvious, but a lot of people don't realize the connection For every one percent that mortgage rates go up.

Buy your purchasing power Falls by 10. that's because your payment for your Piti principal, interest, taxes, and insurance plus potentially HOA dues if you have those actually end up going up by roughly that amount. Now that's because property taxes are usually based on what you're paying for the property, right? And uh, and of course, mortgage rates are based on uh, what's happening in the 10-year treasury market and what is the risk-free rate of return? And so that pushes up or down mortgage rates. And so, mortgage rates have obviously moved up from somewhere around 2.75 percent for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage all the way.

Now for somebody with a 740 credit score, let's take a look at the latest data. Latest data shows us survey says 6.442 Now that has moved up recently as the 10-year treasury yield has moved up and this is a lot of reduced buyer purchasing power now. One of the things that the real estate market really is going for it is that there's very, very little inventory available in markets right now. For example, example, if I look at the market in my neck of the woods which is we'll look at the city of Ventura For example, what I like to do is I like to regularly see okay, how many houses and how many condos are for sale and I remember what I got in the industry at the bottom of the last housing market? Actually, the market still had a little bit to go down.

It still had another year of pain when I got in, so I was still on sort of that downslope when I got started in 2010. Uh, in 2011. What you found was a lot of Agents were panicking because there weren't enough homes to sell and there were about 80 homes on the market at any given time that was really deemed lack of supply. And what I found throughout my career was that anytime that number ran up to somewhere around 400 homes.

uh, which. let me let me clarify that when we were at 80 homes I was actually already that was closer to the bottom of the market. 80 homes on the market was 2012. when I got into the market, there were about 400 homes on the market.

So let me make that very clear. Bad: Market 400 homes on the market good Market low Supply easy to sell properties, right? prices going up 80 homes on the market. That was like the end of 2012 and that's when we really started seeing a pop-up And so what I like to do and you could do this very simply in your neck of the woods is just simply go to our like Redfin for example, type in your city and look at how many homes are for sale in your area. Right now, we've got 98 homes for sale.

that's pretty low. That's pretty dang low so inventory is still low. This is something that really has, uh, the real estate market propped up. Now what's remarkable about that is we are seeing months Supply increase because fewer people are buying because that buyer purchasing power is going down and the big fear moment that we've been talking about.

We can get the latest update here from the Redfin data Center, which just updated I think actually this morning. the latest update from the Redfin data center is that nationally median home prices are stable at about 347 right now. In the last week of January going into the first week of Feb February a stable 347 hopefully moves up for people who own homes, but if it stays stable is very soon going to start showing year-over-year declines. In fact, in about two weeks, we might see this blue 2023 line cross over the black line.

and then anytime that blue line is under the black, you're going to have negative year-over-year numbers. And I think in a few months time, that's really going to start a media circus around. Oh my gosh, home prices are officially negative year over year and that's going to make people pretty nervous. Now, if you want a month's supply of homes over here.

If you are a bull on the housing market, you want months Supply to come down. If you're a bear on housing and you want to see housing prices come down, you want months Supply to stay elevated. We ended last year at about 12.9 weeks of supply for the nation. The year before that, we ended 2021 with about seven weeks of Supply.

So already housing supplies skyrocketed. But right now, weeks of supply for homes is sitting at 16.4 more than double the level of housing Supply based on how many people are actually buying than we had previously. So even though there are very few homes on the market, roughly, you could factor in if housing Supply stays stable, you could roughly say half as many people are actually buying right now then would ordinarily Buy in sort of an average market And so that creates some red flags for the housing market and potentially create some opportunities to buy homes soon. Now there are some markets.

Uh, that's because we would think that maybe once we hit sort of peak fear. while mortgage rates are still high, there'll be some really good opportunities to buy real estate. So for example, if you look at Boise you could see okay, we have home prices. Let's go back to home prices over here.

it's just the Redfin data center. You could do this as well. You go to home prices over here, go to median sales price and we can see look at Boise dropping off a cliff the more this blue line gets bad and it's already under last year's line. We're already down 11.

but imagine it stabilizes and pair up to this peak over here. 434 divided by what is this number over here 547 547 shows you declines of over 20 percent. That's scary Now if that continues to go down, that could be even larger. So where are areas that are potentially leveling out? Well, let's look at: Tampa Florida For example, look at this: Tampa Florida actually is starting to see home prices take up a little bit, which is great because if this blue line could Trend above this black line, you might not ever have a negative month over month.

Read for homes in areas like Tampa Florida Tampa Florida Miami are getting insane amounts of inflows and you might actually not have a housing correction in Florida whereas in an area like Boise, you're absolutely likely to have one and prices are still falling. Go to for example: Austin Texas opposite of Florida what do you have in Austin Texas negative prices year over year already and so I think this becomes very important for if you're looking to buy real estate. Is you want to know in what mark markets are you going? Are you already negative? or are you likely to be negative soon? San Diego Seems to be starting to try to form some form of recovery here though even just looking at at the end of November December over here, the numbers are are not great, right? We're still at Lowe's uh and so we'll see if that can actually recover. If you go to, let's say Salt Lake City Let's take a look at Salt Lake Okay, that's interesting.

Uh, how about Utah Okay, fine, then we won't look at Utah for the red. Vendetta There's got to be Utah in here. Uh, what if I just do SLC no Salt Lake no. Okay, fine, then how about we go to Phoenix So if we jump on over to Phoenix negative year over year, right? you're already negative five percent year over year and that gets worse when you're over here.

So you've got a lot of markets that have really corrected. But then there are markets that are still booming and Florida seems to be one of those markets that's still booming quite substantially. Seattle You have this major massive hump over here. It'll be quite fascinating to see if this hump uh, ends up uh, ends up negative if you get any kind of stability over here.

So we'll see personally. I think a lot of it is going to be driven by those mortgage rates. And again, one of the things that could be manipulating some of the data that we're looking at right now is we did have a lull in mortgage rates, right? Look at this lull in mortgage rates. We had a low in mortgage rates right around February 1st maybe around? Yeah, but probably I mean here.

The way we could probably look at this a little bit more clearly. just go to CNBC look at bonds, look at the 10-year and what do you do when you look at the 10-year Just go back, say about three months and look at this. Yeah, you had a lull in mortgage rates around February 1st which that aligns with what we're seeing here. now.

mortgage rates today are higher than where they have been almost all of January and the beginning of February So it's possible you could actually see sort of a micro double dip. Dare I say those words. Uh, if you go to the Redfin data center over here, what do you have, you could potentially see going to median sales prices, you could potentially see a little bit of a flattening. And Recovery thanks to mortgage rates being stable but potential.

And even in Florida where you're seeing that increase and then potentially a double dip again, should mortgage rates stay stable high. So the longer those 10-year treasury yields stay high, the more pain you would expect for real estate. And if you combine High 10-year treasury yields with those year-over-year comps. probably going to have a little bit of a rough spring, but if we can get through spring and we start seeing real housing disinflation in owner's equivalent rents and we start seeing inflation decline dramatically, I Wouldn't be surprised.

and this is sort of my forecast of of what I see for the housing market. The following happens: So I Think you potentially go through this. You have this down sort of Correction of 2022 where home prices are falling and they're falling as mortgage rates are going up. Then you have mortgage rates temporarily fall, which leads to a slight bump in home prices.

Because mortgage or real estate is very sensitive to rates, right, this is potentially your jam Feb bump. But if rates stay high for longer like they are now, you're probably likely to see this sort of continuation where we go back to at least the lows of where we were here, potentially even a little lower. As what happens is you start lapping that year over year. Fear right? This is where you get that March to May year over year.

Fear. But come June July maybe even sooner. Come June or July you're probably going to see a substantial set of housing disinflation drag CPI down when CPI inflation starts plummeting I Would expect the 10-year treasury is going to plummet very quickly, so I would expect over here the 10-year will probably break three percent, so that break on the 10 years is likely to happen. That's my opinion, right? So I think the 10-year breaks three percent and that actually leads to a support being placed under the housing market and you actually see your your slow and sustained rebound back to home prices doing sort of their usual three four percent perhaps? I think a lot of that is going to be dependent on mortgage rates actually coming down again by breaking three percent on the 10-year I Think you're likely to see that so the summer and spring might be difficult because you've got to get through fear and higher yields which we're about to hit.

Fear and you're in higher yields. Uh, in terms of the market now, and they seem to be pretty sticky around this level. they might be pretty sticky at this level until the next Fed meeting, which would be about March 22nd. Uh, but who knows, they could also be sticky through about May until we really get that summer disinflation from from lapping some of the owner's equivalent rents.

So that's my thesis in timing. If I had to choose when to buy personally, I'd probably want to be looking at uh July through December as my buy time. I Think July might be when you have a lot of most of the fear in markets, but December is just generally usually a good time to buy because of people who are selling usually have to sell, right? So that really puts you somewhere between Q3 and Q4. You know, is it possible that that's you? know that Florida is already beyond that bottom, that maybe floor to Bottoms right here, which ends up being something like a December and it recovers from there.

Absolutely. Personally, Uh, Florida is probably, uh, not in in my radar for buying anyway. So uh, that that you know could work out for your personal situation, right? You might be more motivated now in Florida and later if you're more West Coast you might be more motivated In the second half of the year. There's just some Theses about where the housing market would go and I really encourage everybody to get started in real estate.

I Think the easiest way to become a millionaire it's the reason I Called my course secret to millionaire real estate investor is I Actually think everybody can do it. Uh, people hear that and they're like you're crazy Man, not everybody can be a millionaire I'm like wrong like we can because bread will cost fifty dollars a loaf. I'm just kidding. that's if everything just deflates that much.

Uh, but anyway, no. I'm very, very optimistic of that. Anybody who wants to become successful in real estate can do it. So uh, that's my take on some of the latest regarding the housing market.

All right, let's go back. Let's see. we're here. Uh, I'm surprised Roblox is up there? Financials suck.

Yeah, you know it's It's pretty incredible. It's uh, they move a lot on what's happening with their user base. Whether they're getting more users or fewer users, it's pretty phenomenal. Uh Paula Patel you're new to the channel.

Welcome aboard! Thank you so much for being here. Really appreciate you. Uh, that's that's awesome Roblox Up 15 did they just report? Let me take a look at what's going on here. Let's see what we got.

Roblox that might be why you're talking about Roblox Let's see. Oh, we have a retail sales coming out in three minutes. Oh yeah, I think they did report. Yep, they got a Beat Yeah, they're gonna stop posting monthly metrics after March Interesting daily active users 58.8 You know when World of Warcraft did that? things started plummeting.

Uh, that's odd EPS Beats by Sixth Sense bookings beat by 14 mil Italian Man that earnings Catalyst stuff we talked about. it's a big deal Bagel deal. Uh, all right. so we're gonna get retail sales here in a moment.

We'll talk about that. but let's do a quick look at the sticks here. Enjoy looking at the sticks with y'all so briefly. Options, options, options.

Oh my lordy. Tesla's up two percent again. Uh Airbnb up eight percent. They smashed earnings.

We watched earnings together in the office yesterday. Uh wow. Trade Desk 14 Uh Roblox 15 You've got uh MP materials down three percent over here. Uh, keep in mind I'll be doing an interview.

Uh well. I guess you won't You probably won't see it today, but uh. I'll be doing an interview today with the folks over at Boxable, so stay tuned for that. Uh, is anyone here? uh I'll I wanna? well I'll ask that question later.

or maybe I can run the survey here. Uh, have you invested in Boxable? I'm gonna run that as a poll and I'm very curious to see what you all said. So yes, no uh and if you don't know what that is, you know you could wait for my uh video on that. uh what would I actually do it? But anyway.

so we've got to prepare for retail sales while we wait for that retail sales data. Uh, this is this could be a market mover. So retail sales data could be a market mover. So so prepare, prepare yourself for that.

Uh here. I'll give you the uh latest numbers too. All right. Okay, retail sales numbers coming out in 30 seconds.

Here's the expectation: The expectation for retail sales month over month is a two percent increase up from the negative 1.1 percent Previously X Auto is looking for a 0.9 increase X autos and gas looking for a 0.9 increase. All of the numbers in the last report were negative. All December numbers were negative. January Uh, we're expecting positive numbers.

Retail Sales Control Group: one percent. the numbers come out within about the next 10 seconds. So buckle up folks. This could be a market mover.

What do we got with retail sales? Are people spending money or not? Empire Manuf Okay, holy crap. Retail sales come in hot Three percent. The expectation month over month was two percent. Oh my.

God everything's Hot Hot Hot Hot Retail sales X Autos Month over month Expected: 0.9 We got 2.3 We got 2.6 on X autos and gas. Retail Sales Control group comes in hot as well. One point seven percent. Holy shnices, What recession folks.

Whole Lee Crap People are right. back back to spending What recession you've got the NASDAQ trying to take down a little bit on this? you got a red Candlestick On the results of this news, the NASDAQ dropping about 20 basis points initially on this. But what recession folks? Holy Smokes, these are incredible numbers on retail sales. Again, retail sales Advance beating by a full one percent.

Not only are retail sales beating by one percent in the month over month, but again X Autos Xgas massive beats uh, a Beats by by 1.4 Uh, to as much as uh oh my? Lord uh, that's uh, that's actually. uh, that's a 1.4 beat and that's a 1.7 beat. Holy moly, these are crazy numbers. Let's go ahead and actually look at the the charts to see what's going on with retail sales people apparently spending money like crazy.

Uh, this is actually something that American Express warned about, right? Remember America What did American Express say American Express Said people are spending through the recession. That's why what American Express told us. And so what do we actually have here on the Retail Sales report. Monthly retail sales estimates have been revised? Uh, yep, they okay the fall of last month, they actually revised X Autos month over month from negative 1.1 to negative point nine from negative 0.7 for X autos and gas to negative 0.4 So the last numbers were revised better as well.

Holy Smokes, look at that. January 2023 Three percent Advanced monthly sales. This is a big old boom right over here. Uh, let's see what we got: Advanced Estimates of retail food and service sales for January 2023 Adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes, we're up three percent.

Total sales were up 6.1 percent from the same period a year ago. What recession? Retail trades were up 2.3 percent. Uh, from December of 2022. Food and service.

Holy crap. Food and service and drinking place Food Services And drinking places were up 25.2 percent from January of 2022. Sorry guys. I Spent a lot of time at restaurants in 2022.

Uh, mostly food, some drinking while general merchandise stores were up 4.5 odds people aren't buying stuff. Man, people are going out getting drinks and food. This is nuts. Wow.

Okay, Uh, so I Want to see some more of the charts here? Uh, let's see if we can get a little bit more. This is just some more info. Oh, here we go here are the charts. Let's also see what the suits are saying about this because this is remarkable I Mean this is a crazy beat here on a retail sales.

Really, really incredible. Let's see what where this is. So first we're going to look at the job. Let's look at the adjusted for a moment.

Here we're going to look at the second column on the right and uh, potentially you know the easiest way to do this is let's look at the we'll look at the non-adjusted number here and then we'll also look at the adjusted number here. I'm circling it just so when we zoom in, it's a little easier to look at. So what do we have here? General merchandise stores? Okay, what's the change here? Oh, these are just nominal numbers. That doesn't mean little good.

I Want the percent change? Okay, well, that's over here. That's a second column in. so let's look at the second column in for the one month change. What do we have? Uh, that's 3.4 percent in general A merchandise department stores 3.1 percent.

So if you're into like Macy's and stuff like that, 3.1 percent I'm not actually that high you've got Electronics This is non-store retailers. This is like your Etsy right here. 5.7 percent. Much higher than what you actually have for your merchandising stores.

so that's pretty substantial. food and drinking places, thank you very much. Uh, 24. That's insane.

Holy Smokes clothing. We saw this in the CPI numbers. People spending a ton of money again on clothing. What the hell? Six point six percent who's buying new clothes right now? I Thought that was like after the the pandemic, everybody went out to go buy clothes.

This is crazy Market's actually stable Market Barely cares. The market barely cares. Look at this one. I Mean this could change during the day, But what did I tell you earlier in this live? I told you earlier I Go.

Look. The market cares about a recession right now. Uh and and what? and earnings per share. And what are these numbers telling us? EPS Go Moon Baby Moon Two-week call options.

Yes, no, don't do that. It's not. advice. Gasoline stations at 5.1 health and personal care stores 4.9 there's Beauty for you food and beverage stores.

Look, people don't care about grocery stores right now. Uh, even though that's up 5.8 percent, The big number is food and drinking. Uh, you know it's It's almost like people are like buying private jets and and flying around to different restaurants and different places, going to have drinks with people who are hanging out with them and shadowing them. This is crazy.

Look at this. electronics and appliance stores. Minus 6.5 Getting smashed over here. The electronics people just people just want entertainment.

Who's more entertaining? Oh never mind. Uh Furniture Home Furnishings Four and a half percent. That's pretty nominal. It's probably one of the weaker categories motor vehicle and parts.

That's actually surprisingly low for motor vehicle and parts. so people spending less money on their cars, more money just drinking. uh, and of course eating. Uh, it's not.

The only thing you can go out for is drinks. you can go out to like Escape rooms drunk. or you could go to ax throwing drunk. or you could go, you know to a movie theater I'm sorry.

uh. anyway. so retail, uh, Total Retail 6.7 increase. This is these are the I Mean this is just these are insane numbers.

Uh, absolutely insane numbers. So this is a crazy retail sales report shows us where people are going. Okay, this is the Uh. so those were what do we have here.

This is Retail Total Motor Vehicle Parts. Okay, okay, we these are pretty darn similar. We already talked about those preliminaries. We talked about these.

Okay, just trying to get a little bit more color here. I Mean this. This is a phenomenal, phenomenal report for retail sales. and you won't believe this.

Okay, you won't believe this. Remember how I said earlier that what everyone cares about right now is EPS right? They're we're over inflation. The inflation story is over. And how is the market reacting right now to a crazy retail sales report which should make us nervous about pricing, power, and inflation and companies raising prices like crazy Again, right? should make us nervous in that.

What is? How is the market reacting? Step Bro. Not stuck. Step row, not stuck. Step row out having a good time.

That's what step Pro's doing. Step Bro first is like oh no, Is he stuck? No, he ain't stuck. He's partying. This is insane.

Uh, that's actually really, really good. They the FED might actually stick a soft Landing Could you imagine that? No recession soft Landing Jerome Powell's right. You know somebody asked me the other day. They're like, well, maybe Jerome Powell just wants to rig everything.

You know why? Why would he want it to be good? Because think about it. if you're Jerome Powell Do you want to be wrong? Or do you want to be right? Well, obviously you want to be right. What if you're correct about the soft? Landing What if Jerome Powell is right that inflation ends up being transitory sticks of soft landing and actually navigates us into a boom decade of the 2020s? You know what's going to happen to Jerome Powell They will make statues of that son of a gun people will start worshiping Jerome Powell if he could actually stick this. So if you're Jerome Powell you want to be right.

and if you could be right about those two things, you'll go down as probably. you know. Until next time. One of the greatest fed chairs ever.

And the guy with the money printer that's crazy. What's CNBC saying about this? I've always liked Steve Joining us right now to dig into the new retail sales numbers and the state of the consumer is Terry Lundgren He's former Macy's president CEO and chairman of course he's now the CEO of Tjl advisors and Terry What do you think of these numbers? Of course he's a consultant now because Rick was pointing out the first time since October that we've seen a plus sign in front of the retail sales. It's definitely stronger than we expected. Becky It demonstrates that the consumer does have uh, have still have Firepower and is willing to to spend and this definitely surpassed our expectations.

And I Have to to say, when you think about one of the biggest reasons why I'm surprised is because we're going against such strong numbers and retailers are always looking to beat last year and the year before that, and this compounded game is quite extraordinary. We've had 22 points of gain over the last three years in retail sales, so we're we're adding on top of that I Think it's uh, he's right. I Mean, think about all the covet sales, right? you're adding on top of those nuts familiar with Jan Niffen and he was just pointing out that what you've seen for a while now has been that the luxury brands have done much better than some of the lower end. Brands And that makes a lot of sense when you consider inflation.

Really? Cuts In higher food inflation, higher prices at the pump that cuts in, uh, to lower income consumers ability to pay for things, no question. Uh, we've talked about that in the past that a larger and larger percent of net income for the lower middle household uh, income consumer is going towards shelter, food and energy. Yeah, and when that happens, it obviously just reduces their ability to spend on discretionary items. So that doesn't affect that.

That high-end consumer you've got. Lvmh One of my my favorite companies on the screen. Uh, and and that consumer is going to continue, uh, continue to spend. And I think when there's more international travel, uh, that business will go up even further because many people like to shop when they're on their vacation or when they're traveling.

So for a long time, the markets people in general have been worried about what's happening to the economy. That's a good point. By the way, when you when you travel, you just buy stuff because there's nothing else to do other than drink, buy stuff, and party. Fall By the wayside when you're going to see the jobs Market Get hap and get get tougher.

None of that has happened yet. Is this waiting for you? Think this really is going to happen later this year? I Do think it's going to eventually happen? You know? one of the key numbers here is the savings that consumers have. and historically we Americans spend our savings. You know, in the middle of the middle and lower household incomes, we spend our savings get it all the way down to zero.

That hasn't been the case since The stimulus packages help support those savings accounts. and it's It's maintained. So so while that number has come down dramatically over the last two and a half years, uh, consumers still have more than a trillion dollars in excess savings versus 2019. That combined with higher wage growth and as you mentioned, this very low unemployment number is giving that consumer still the confidence to continue to spend.

I Do think however, that as these inflationary bites, uh, keep challenging this consumer in terms of taking pieces of the Uh of their of their overall net income. uh, that that will that consumption will slow down over time and again I Have to remind us we're just going against very very strong retail sales numbers. All right, we're going to pull off this guy. Listen, he is absolutely 100 right.

Remember the study I've talked about many times on this channel. Harvard Economists tell us that if you have a dollar of money sitting in your bank account, you are nearly 100 likely to spend it. If you have that money in real estate or stocks or brokerage accounts, you are nearly 100 percent likely not to spend it. Therefore, in order to prop up the consumer, the consumer should not invest, right? Consumers should keep their money in savings accounts.

That's how consumers get robbed and they never end up. Building Wealth Now I Want to end uh this segment here on something that drives me nuts and it is Acorns. I Hate to say it. They have a very great rating online.

People love them. Okay, it is the stupidest thing you could use if you use acorns. And I've said this before, this is my opinion. I'm not trying to bash them but I think they are scamming people now again I Don't think they actually or like financially just gaming people I Just think psychologically they are ruining you because think about this, Acorns is a company that basically says hey, well when you swipe your credit card, we'll Round Up to whatever increment you want and we'll invest that automatically for you.

Fine, sounds great right, but that means every time you go buy something rather than feeling the pain of paying like if you want the ultimate pain of pain, this is pain of pain when you take out cash like this stack of I don't know. One dollar. Oh, there's some 20s in here. Oh, there's some hundreds in here too.

Anyway, when you take a stack of cash and you go out and you say all right, I'm gonna go buy something and you take that shiny crisp two dollar bill and you're like here you go, this is the most painful way to pay for something is you hand Cold Hard Cash to someone, It's like damn I Gotta get 100 bucks out of here man. I Really want to keep the hundred right? That is painful. It is a very painful way to pay. So then we invented credit cards which disconnected you from money right? and it made it less painful.

Now you still have to pay off your credit card, but there's a reason Starbucks likes the Starbucks card because you have the pain of paying once you put 50 bucks on your card and then every time you go, there's no pain of paying anymore because you're just working off wha