That probably they're fed might even consider uh decreasing Race By the end of this year, the markets no longer assume that you think the markets are wrong. Well, so let me say these are all of these numbers that we're throwing around here are conditional on incoming data and what happens. so we never say this is this is what we think will happen. You know, we make a tentative forecast and then we let the data come in.

For example, if the data were to continue to come in stronger than we expect and we were to conclude that we needed to raise rates more than is priced into the markets, or then we wrote down at our last full group of forecasts in December, then we would certainly do that. We would certainly raise rates more. Okay, so um, today for people who aren't familiar with the Fomc who is actually is on the Fn1c, so they're uh, the U.S Central Bank consists of a Board of Governors. Here in Washington, there are seven Governors.

Those governors are nominated by the President and Uh confirmed by the Senate and we serve terms that are that are not synced up with the election cycle. so we're we're independent. There are also 12 reserve banks around the country which have a degree of Independence and they're so they so each each Reserve Bank is led by a president who works there full-time All 12 of them sit on the Fomc, so that's 19 people sit on the FMC So it's quite a large Committee of which 12 vote in any given year. The Reserve Bank President's vote on a rotating basis except New York which votes every year.

So when you vote um, do you vote at the beginning of an Fomc meeting and then just kind of have discussions afterwards Or do you wait till the very end and then you vote? No, we vote at the end I mean the whole the FMC meeting process takes you know more than a full week. I'm talking to all of the participants all night, all the 18 other ones and the staff has sent around memos and there's something called the Teal Book which is the staff's assessment of the uh you know of the economy and international economy and monetary policy and all that. Then we we have an extensive discussion on the morning of the first day about the economy. Everybody talks about that.

On the second day we talk about monetary policy and then we vote on monetary policy at around noon on the second day. So there's the chairman of the Federal Reserve board speak first and say, here's what I think and or does he wait until the end and say, well, thanks for what you think, But let me tell you what I think, what do you do Different chairs have done it different ways and so I I tend I've tended to do what my predecet media predecessor did: I think Well, this is what I do I speak last on the sort of the economic go around so everyone else talks about what they think about the economy and in their district. For example, if they're reserved and I listen to all that and then I give my comments at the end and I kind of sum up what people have said. And then I speak first on monetary policy.

Okay, so you've said your inflation rate target is two percent. Um, but why two percent and not three percent? Three percent, you know could be tolerable. Really I mean most. For most of organized history, three percent is considered okay.

Why do you want two percent? So two percent is the global standard and that is our objective two percent piece as measured by the the Pce index. And that's just. that's not something we're looking at changing that isn't going to change. It's that's not going to change.

Not Gonna Change now. But okay, so you need to get the two percent and your goal to get there is. by what period of time would you like to get there. Well, we say, we say that we're using our tools to get there over time.

If you look at our forecasts, we expect 2023 to be a year of significant declines in inflation, and it's actually our job to make sure that that's the case. But I would tell you that, Uh, you know, with inflation. Headline Headline: Pce inflation is running about five percent. This is on a 12-month basis.

Core is running it at 4.4 My guess is it will take certainly into not just this year, but next year to get down close to 2 percent. Okay, so two percent is firm. That's you're not getting off that. Yes, Okay, so uh, the theory of raising interest rates Um, is that it will decrease economic activity and increase unemployment.

But you've been increasing interest rates for a while and unemployment is now at a record low. So what's wrong with the theory? Why is unemployment not getting higher? Well, the labor market is strong because the economy is stronger. And as I mentioned, it's a good thing that we've been able to see the beginnings of disinflation without seeing the labor market weaken. Um, it's just that.

Uh, there's a lot of demand for workers. In fact, it if you, if you look at the supply of workers versus demand for workers, demand for for U.S workers is now more than 5 million greater than the available Supply And the available Supply consists of people who are either working or actively looking for a job. So this this is. This was not the case before the pandemic.

The pandemic really had a significant left to list lasting Mark so far on labor. Supply In the United States labor first participation rate came down and there now is a shortage of workers and it it feels it almost feels more structural than cyclical. So that that's a that's a significant issue Yeah, you've resisted I Think saying what unemployment rate would be acceptable to you I Think But is there climate rate that you think would moderate inflation such that you would tolerate unemployment at four percent? Five percent? Six percent I guess I Think about it this way. Um, watch for the break off 26.

We have two goals in Congress's assigned us: Maximum Employment and Price Stability. Price Stability, as we've agreed is two percent inflation. Maximum employment means if you want a job, you can get one. So right now the labor market is at least at maximum employment.

By many would say that it that is out of balance with more demand than there is Supply So what we're trying to do is get inflation down. We're not. We're not targeting uh, you know, a different uh, unemployment rate. we're trying.

We're trying to use our tools to get inflation to come down over time. You say that when Kobe hit the economy and we injected five trillion dollars in fiscal policy uh into the economy and the FED did, uh. quantitative easing and other related things kept interest rates very low would you say In hindsight, that was a mistake policy at the time. Smart.

So I think you have to go back to the decisions that were made in real time. and it was something nobody had ever seen the global economy. It came to a virtual standstill. People were talking about depression, People were talking and we didn't think we.

we had no idea when we would get vaccines that worked. So Congress took very strong measures and we took very strong measures. And you see where the economy is. You've got a very, very strong labor market, but you have high inflation.

As I mentioned, we're at the beginning of getting that down If you look around the world though at other countries, they're also experiencing High inflation. including countries that didn't that didn't do as much as we did either from a fiscal or monetary standpoint. So that that tells you though, that a big part of this inflation is actually related to the the you know, the the pandemic itself, the shutdown, and the reopening. That's a big part of it.

Now the Quantitative Interesting Program has increased the balance sheet. I Guess with the Fed and what is your balance sheet now I think it's 8.4 trillion dollars. Jesus You must sound like you're pretty. You know, 8.4 Brilliant.

That was yesterday's number. Okay, all right, Eight point, Four trillion. Um, what would you like it to get down to over the next year or two? Is there some lower number? So we are in the process of shrinking the balance sheet actively actually, uh, passively as I should say. So what happens is as treasury Securities on our balance sheet mature up to a cap a monthly cap.

we we then we broke above 26 in that amount. same thing with mortgage-backed Securities as they are prepaid or so. So we we, um, the balance sheet is shrinking in terms of the target level of it. we haven't put a specific dollar number on it.

The idea is we're in a regime of ample reserves. Reserves are basically deposits at the at the reserve banks and when we get close to that level where we feel that we're we're reserves our ample kind of where we were before the pandemic. Then we'll slow down and we'll sort of test where we are and it. but it'll be a couple of years we think till we get to that level.

the FED does not sell Securities It waits for them to mature and then you just cash them in, right? You don't You're not in the market selling securities that are not yet mature. Is that correct? That is correct. It's also correct though that we've said we would consider sales of mortgage-backed Securities but I will tell you that's that's not something that is on the on the list of active things things being actively considered. So there's some people that are worried about the federal debt limit and that we might not be able to extend it on time.

We have 31.4 trillion dollars of debt. Are you a little worried about the debt limit not getting extended? So the debt limit is really something for the fiscal authorities to deal with. the FED Our only role in this is that we're that we're the Fiscal Agent on the treasury Department We're not a policy maker on that and I will just say this: this can this really can only end one way. and that is with Congress raising the debt ceiling in a timely fashion so that the U.S can pay all of its bills one and as do.

That's what has to happen. And if that doesn't happen, no one should think that the FED has the ability to Shield the financial markets or the economy and the consequences of of moving too slow so you don't have any program in place ready to go. If in fact, the debt limit isn't passed in time. this is something that Congress has to deal with and the same.

The so-called trillion dollar gold coin solution is not one year in favor of I. Guess I As I said, this ends in only one way. In that way is Congress voting to raise the debt ceiling so that the US can pay all of them. Okay, in terms of consultation, Um, do you consult regularly with the Treasury Secretary Terry or the head of the National Economic Council or the president? United States How do you kind of relate to the administration for a long, long time? You know, 60 or 70 years still making new highs? a weekly breakfast or lunch with the Treasury Secretary and the Fed chair and that's what I've had with with uh, Treasury secretaries that I've had as fetch here.

I've also had a regular or call it called irregular lunches with the head of the NEC. We also have sold my entire position on TQ. Just a heads up: I'm okay with selling early I'm playing it safe. institutional structure of ours.

just a little bit too crazy for me right now. So and the way the Fed works today: If You Could Reconstruct the operations of the Fed? You know, would you change the legislation anyway? Would you think the FED operates in a in a way that's as efficient as you can realistically operate? We're not looking for any changes to the Federal Reserve Act I mean I think it does work the the structure that I discussed earlier where you've got the 12 Reserve Bank presidents coming in. What that assures Really, it institutionalizes diversity of thought. So we get different people coming in who've got different backgrounds, different careers and they and they think different ways and I think that's enormously beneficial to our decision-making process.

So there's been discussion recently about the FED. some Fed members spread board presidents selling their Securities and maybe not doing everything they were supposed to do in terms of disclosing it. What have you done To fix that process? We put a new system in a new set of rules in place which I think are best in class for a public institution like the Fed. and uh, you know the the Innovations were that that if someone wants to sell something that they own or buy something they have to clear that in advance with with staff at the Board of Governors and then you've got to wait 45 days for that to execute.

Also you can't own individual stocks and they're they're You can only do these. You can only authorize these transactions or execute them during school times. Um and it you know it's it's A and we just of course all of these are disclosed. If if you're if your idea is to go to trade things, buy and sell them because you think you know you think this stock is cheap and that kind of thing.

that's just not something that will work. What is the salary of the chairman of the Federal Reserve board? It's um it's around a hundred and ninety thousand dollars I Believe Okay so you live on 190 000. If you need to sell something what do you do you have to clear it for 45 days. That's right we we've You know too if we have family expenses that if we have them that exceed in my salary then we have to sell it I think that bear salary for the job or I do Yes So okay so today JP is worth a lot more than 200k a year.

How do you coordinate with uh central banks? Let's say in England or Japan or or China you have regular conversations with them about what they're doing. We do, you know and I meet six times a year in Switzerland with the heads of all the of many, many central banks you know, even even the small and medium-sized ones at In Basel at the Bank for International Settlements. In addition, among the major central banks I have a regular dialogues going with with most of them and so we we're talking though about is really what's happening in in the economy. and how are you thinking about policy and that kind of thing? It's very important that that we keep those discussions going because particularly in a crisis, you're going to need to know each other and you're going to need to know.

You're going to be able to trust each other. And do you think the U.S economy is pretty much in control of its own inflation rate? Are there events outside the United States like what China is doing or the Ukraine war that are affecting inflation and make you nervous about where inflation might be going? We have the tools. The FED has the tools to achieve our two percent goal over time. But in inflation in the United States is of course very closely related to things that happen here, including the balance between supply and demand.

It's also affected by, for example, commodity prices that are really set on the global markets you know, oil and many agricultural Commodities are priced globally so that there there are certainly it's an integrated global economy and Global markets and we you know we are part of that. So you get data from all the government agencies but you ever use anecdotal things like you go to the supermarket and your supervises are high and say this price is high or how do you get? do you ever get anecdotal things or people overclaw you up or friends and say by the way you should do this or that do you ever get that kind of information as you only get it from the government reports I mostly get Uh data but I will say the the I I Do believe that anecdotal information is very useful and one of the things the reserve banks are great at is all 12 of them have big operations where they talk to businesses and non-profits universities, every sector of the of the country and the economy and they bring that back to the Fom seemings and they talk about what they're seeing because often you know. but staring at data is is great but you need to, you need to have a story and I think hearing the stories that people tell it does help me to sort of, you know, assess what's going on out there. So as the chairman of the Federal Reserve is obviously an important job, how do you reduce the stress level you have I mean uh, you can't be watching economic numbers all the time.

So what do you do to relieve the stress other than interviews like this are the usual things. I I Read a pretty light fiction detective in spy fiction I exercise as much as I can as you know I like to ride my bike I play the guitar I play music. Is that safe Riding a bike? Um, in, you know, dangerous and it's it's state it, sorry, it's safe. If you stay on the bike and you're good at that, that's what I try to do, you're still playing the guitar.

I do I do Yeah, your hair is awfully short for playing the guitar. They actually need longer hair. hair longer when you were younger, gray or it's too great too. Okay, so let me ask you uh about, um, the the issue of what it's like to be Chairman of the Fed you? You can't go.

Have you know, regular friendship kind of dinners or meetings? People People treat you much differently I assume than they used to. Right when you go to a restaurant are people listening to what you're saying or something like that? I I Have always thought that my jokes were funny David but uh, no. So it, yes, it's um I I've never been a public figure before. like this recording in progress.

Um, you know it's it's a great honor to serve. Uh, but yeah, if you go in public places you have to be very careful about it. and um, which is the President? United States Ever call you with any advice or you know he doesn't did President Trump ever call you or President Biden or call you or well I think it's a matter of public record that president Trump did used to call me from time to time. What did he call you his life? Um no I I Haven't had that kind of I haven't gotten any calls from uh from President Biden Okay, so the biggest challenge you have now is being able to keep a straight face not telling people what you're gonna do in the future and look at the data and then come up with the right solution, right? That's mostly it.

I Think the biggest challenge we face at the FED is completing the process of getting inflation down to two percent. and what? What I want to point out is that the we're seeing disinflation in the good sector, we're going. We expect to see it in a Housing Services sector and that's that's these are the three parts of the of the core Pce inflation index that we look at. There's 56 TQ show in signs of resistance.

Be ready for a pullback. It doesn't mean that you have to short inflation. You can stay cashed. Just be aware, we are very, very overbought.

Just a fair warning: we're going to need to keep rates at a restrictive level for for a period of time before that comes down When you made your speech the other day, when you talked about the FED discount rate, you use the word disinflation 11 times. Not that I'm counting, but 11 times. So you were saying that this inflation is beginning to appear when you use that word 11 times again today after the Jobs report or you would be less inclined to use that word so much. I I might use the I might say I would certainly use the word disinflation Yes, which means declining inflation.

and I I would call it declining inflation too. For and uh, today. What about the uh, the debt total debt of the United States which produces some inflation? 31.4 Leaving aside the debt limit, are you worried about the total indebtedness? United States producing inflation? or you don't think that's a big problem I already closed out levels. It's too risky I didn't want to risk it at the federal government level I missed out I missed out for some time I made a little bit to deal with and better to deal with it sooner rather than later.

Now many of your predecessors were economists. your trained as a lawyer. Um, so um, they spoke in what I call Fed speak which is the same incomprehensible economic language which was done intentionally I think sometimes they would say so you tend to speak in English Um, is that have been a A Plus you'd say when you're dealing with members of Congress they can understand what you're saying I'd like to think so you know I've made it a real priority to to engage a lot with Congress in our system of government. Unlike the parliamentary system, our accountability is to the legislature.

It's to send it in the house in particularly the two oversight committees Senate Banking and House Financial Services. And I think it's very important that we respect that and explain what we're doing and listen to their concerns and and share with them how we're thinking about things. and I think they appreciate that and but that is. You know we have this precious Independence We can't be removed from office.

We serve these long terms. The other side of that has to be accountability And the way for us to get accountability is to be as transparent as possible and try to reach you know the people of the United States through their elected representatives. So this is a very high priority and we're going to keep doing them. So when you testify in front of Congress how much time does it take to prepare for that? Is that a one hour preparation session? or is it a one day session or a one-week session? you know they're supposed to.

These are supposed to be monetary policy hearings under the Humphrey Hawkins act and they're actually on any anything. That it's any political issues, so you it's it's quite extensive. You have to prepare this little pullback. Everything that the FED is involved in and many things that the FED is not involved in.

Uh, so it's It's a lot of preparation so when you get questions from some members, you have to bite your tongue and say why are you asking a question like that or you never have that problem that never happens, Never happens. Okay, okay, all right, well good. Um, so today as you look at um, the country's economy, what is the biggest worry you have about inflation? Is it just that, um, that Physical policy is not completely under control, We have exogenous events outside. What is your biggest worry about inflation today? Kind of what I was saying earlier, which is, um, we're just at the beginning of this process, right? Goods inflation.

So we need that process to continue. Goods The whole thing began. The inflation began with people not being able to buy Services instead buying goods and then Global Supply chains collapsing and so you couldn't get goods and prices of goods went up and that's where it started. But that is now starting to get better as Supply chains are improving and as people are rotating their purchases back to Services you move on.

Though we're not seeing it yet in Housing Services which is either rent or or the ownership, the imputed costs of house ownership. but we expect to see that so we need that to happen. That's another big part of the economy. It's got to come.

It should come in the second half of this year. then. the biggest piece and what I worry about the most is when are we going to see distance, love, disinflation, or declining inflation in core? Services X Housing. So that's what I Worry about approaching support range here.

It's a risky world out there. You know, with the war in Ukraine and the reopening of China and you know we've there there. those are things that can affect our economy and the path of inflation, right? So the balloon was not your worry though, you don't care about the balloon, it's not not within our Amity Okay, so today, um, the Federal Reserve gets data from all over the country and um, are you convinced that you get the best data? You have the best data collection methods. Uh, or do you think it's not as, uh, modern as what Wall Street gets? We? So most of the data that we get are just the same.

You know we don't collect the data on unemployment or inflation or most things, so most of that's just government data and a lot of that's for example, very high quality. The labor market data is very high quality. We what we get which I think is better and different from what everybody else gets is what I mentioned earlier and that is the reserve banks putting together that the um yeah, the beige no not the beige book. the um Facebook yeah the page book putting together the beige book and also coming in and and you know, sharing the anecdotes and you know what they're hearing.

What's happening with each district is different. You have agricultural districts, districts, and energy districts and so that I think I think our anecdotal but also just the Hall of information we get through that through that network is is I don't think anybody else has that. So do you consult regularly with some of your predecessors? I mean obviously one is Secretary of the Treasury now, but uh Ben Bernanke for example or I do I talked to former chairman I can't talk to you know secretary Yellen I still talk to Alan Greenspan now and again and when you're dealing with this with the your colleagues on the FED board and you disagree with them, you say look, I'm the chairman of the FED I am the person who has to make the final decision and this is what we should do or you don't quite do it that way. It's a it's a process of reaching uh agreement and I hear what people have to say I tell them what I think and then I'm the one who has to bring a proposal in front of a full committee, not just the board in front of the Full Committee on Monetary Policy and it works.

You know we have to reach an agreement and uh, you know we get to a place. I I Think you can tell Today we are blessed with a diversity of perspectives on the Fomc With 19 people of course we are. but you you have one thing that unites all of us and that is a very strong commitment to getting inflation. Yeah yeah.

so in some parts of Washington people say if you give me this I'll give you that this is a lower high. This for that, you never do that at the FED When you're coming up with a decision I'll do what it is that doesn't happen ever. Not really. No, No, well like you mean a better office or something like that? uh well just uh.

you know I'll say what you want me to say if you say what I want you to say or something that never happens, right? No, No, it doesn't happen I mean and when you want to talk to members of the of the board, uh, the Federal Reserve board, do you go to their office or they come to your office? I like to do both? I mean I Really don't like to sit in my office all day and and have just have people come to see me? I Like to go barge in on people and you know I think it's much better to get up and walk around and see people. The FED has been pretty good at uh, avoiding leaks of its decisions. Uh, how do you do that? Because most people in Washington are not so good at that. How do you avoid things we do have? You know, we've got very strict rules around confidentiality, particularly around the written materials that we have.

You know we publish these things internally for for the FMC meeting, the memos, and the teal book and all that. Um, but the other thing to remember though is you know we're not trying to hide our decisions from the public. We actually in in the modern in modern monetary policy. we want the public to understand how we think how we're thinking.

And and you know, if markets really understand how you're thinking in a new, a new piece of data comes in the world and it sort of happens organically and that happened all last year as we were. You know, talking about raising rates. The market priced in rate increases long before we actually enacted them, so it's not. We want to be transparent.

We're not looking to surprise markets with these decisions. But from the time that you make your decision on the Fomc, whatever time it is that during the day and your press conference at two o'clock or something like that, your decision is made by two o'clock or whenever it is or something like that. So you got a half hour. But you have to avoid at least during that half hour because that's very Market insensitive information.

How do you make sure nobody is calling their spouse and saying guess what we're going to do? Well, we You know we people take this very seriously. Then none of that happens. You know you're taking your professional life in your hands if you do something like that. I Think people have a sense of self-preservation so they're You know people are very careful about about this information.

There is a period of a couple of hours after the meeting and until we announced the decision. but we actually we announced the decision at two press conference is at 2 30. So I think you know it's a fairly small group of senior staff and policy makers that that kind of know what happened is what we're going to say. and I just think everybody understands that that you've just got to be really careful with that to go back to the jobs discussion.

If next month you had another 519 000 jobs created net jobs. would that be good or bad? from your point of view, Have we a lot of people working but maybe producing more inflation? So that's a good question so we don't We don't have the luxury of thinking about good or bad, it just is what it is. So but I I would say again, we most most analysts most economists would say that to get inflation down from high levels that we've had, if you look at history, there is some softening in labor market conditions that goes along with that. And that is still you know, very possible and indeed likely here, some softing in labor market conditions.

However, this cycle is different from other Cycles because of where it came from I Found it all sorts of attempts to predict what it would do. So it is good that we have seen very strong labor market, but at the same time we're seeing wages moderating. Wages are still wage increases are still very high, but wage increases have come down to a level that's closer to what would be sustainable. Still, well above what would be sustainable with two percent inflation.

And same thing with inflation in inflation is starting to come down and the labor market hasn't softened. We do expect that it will soften Um, but you know it will do what it will do. Our job is to get inflation down to two percent and preserve maximum employment. So when the Fomc meets as it does regularly eight times a year, Yes, eight times you pretty much know how the decision is going to come out before you actually get together because you've been talking to each other.

Or does the meeting of the Fomc changed Minds in ways that you might not have expected before the meeting started. It depends on the meeting, you know. I Do I talk to each of the 18 other participants at least once and we go through everything. What? You know? What's your? I've sold my position on TQ I Told you guys that when it hit highs of 26 20 or 26 30.

I got out I explained to you I sold early I have not gotten back in just making sure that you're aware I'm you get into a discussion at the meeting which suggests that maybe you should communicate differently and then we'll think about that and we might actually take a break in the middle of the meeting and then go off with a smaller group and think about that and come back and make changes. Sometimes though, everything plays out as expected. and when you're having these FMC meetings I assume somebody sweeps the room to make sure there's no bugs and anything else. All of that, no, no leaks, No.

Okay, okay and today, um, as you look forward as we are going forward for the next major of this year, your basic view would be: you'd be happy if the inflation rate were to get down by the end of the year to two percent may be unrealistic, but your core inflation now, or overall inflation you think is about four or four and a half percent. Something like that or what would you say it is, it's it's in that range. There are different measures. yes, we we expect.

you know significant progress on inflation this year and again, it's our job to produce it and I want to I Want to say again? You know we put we throw these numbers around. but the reality is we're going to react to the data. So if we continue to get for example, strong labor market uh reports or higher higher inflation reports, it may well be the case that we have to do more in race like whoa, that's not gonna have to go get a mortgage on a house I was going to buy for example. uh he would say I'm not going to be any better off waiting to next year than now because watch for the break below the EMA Here that was what we were looking for.

mortgage. Surprisingly enough, I get a lot of requests for advice on those kind of things and you don't give any and I but I really can't Okay, I can't I really can't respond So uh. okay. so on the whole, to summarize where you are, you're basically saying that the jobs data was that came out was a little bit surprising, but in the end you're taking, you're taking into account and you're pretty comfortable with the guidance you gave last time and you're not prepared to give anything that's completely different guidance than you gave last week.

Well, I mean this is a world in which we've had the the inflate sorry, the the Labor Market report and I think that does I think it underscores the message that I was sending at the at the Um press conference and in the meeting that we have a significant road ahead to get inflation down to two percent. And and I think here it comes, there's been an expectation that it'll that'll go away quickly. uh, and painlessly. and I I Don't think that's at all guaranteed.

That's not the base case. The base cases it will for me is that it will take some time and we will have to do more rate increases and then we'll have to look around and see whether we've done enough. Okay, and and two percent is the rate we have for the last 25 years before inflation came along. But prior to that for most of us history we were higher than two percent.

Is it that two percent is? We're now for 25 years of it that you think that's the appropriate level. So for we went through this long period where inflation was was really anchored around two percent. and we we think that. and you know economists think that that's because people start to expect two percent inflation and inflation.

It's in a way, if people, if everyone expects that prices are going to go up, prices and wages are going to go up two percent per year, then plus productivity in the case of wages, then it will. That's what will happen. Having that, having price stability real price stability for an extended period of time is just enormously beneficial to the public because you can Then on the back of that you can build a very strong labor market. As we had, we had a labor market with really three and a half percent unemployment in two thousand, uh, 18 and 19..

And we had inflation struggling. You know, just barely getting to two percent. But we don't have the most lower end of the spectrum and so this was a we all want to get back to that place. But the the Bedrock of the whole thing is to get inflation under control.

The unemployment rate hasn't come down as much as people are going up as much as people thought. In part, some people say because we don't have as many immigrants coming in the country legal immigrants coming in taking some of the jobs they otherwise would take. you think immigration is an issue in terms of giving us more labor uh, workers. or you think that's not a factor.

So just as a matter of arithmetic, it was a factor because there was very little migration across borders during the pandemic. Uh, and that was part of what was happening, particularly in certain sectors like the agricultural sector and food service and things like that where where there just weren't the people. However, just just very recently here the the immigration data have turned up again and so and I think that made maybe part of why people are feeling somewhat less pressure in a labor market to find workers. This is an issue, Not for the feather, This is immigration is obviously a political issue.

we do not. So you must be new to our live stream. So I don't like to trade by being able to see how much I'm up or down. It is distracting in the sense of it shouldn't matter how much I'm up or down, that shouldn't determine if I should lock in profits or not.

So um, it's It's something that if you're part of my learn plan profit group or you've watched me trade live before. It's one thing that we talk about where we try to encourage beginners to not focus so much on how much your upper down and focus on the actual trade opportunity itself and the administration. I'll leave it open I have one chance, another. That's another thing.

I close my position already into every economic model, but we don't. We don't look at it as something that we're working on it being able to get your say anything you didn't want to say. so um, you know I let's say Jay I I've known you a long time I think you've done a great job. uh in a difficult situation I appreciate your service to the country at a 180 000 a Year be careful here.

salary is something like that. so thanks very much for being here And thank you for your service. Thank you David Great to see you. That's kind of a disc.

Let's see which way the market goes. Be careful I Didn't like that. Last comment. that was kind of a jab too.

Thank you for what you do for our country for 180k a year I mean 180k a year for having that much of a powerful um, you know job I don't think that's very much. Uh, let's see if we see a change of Direction I Don't think the market is supposed to like what was just said Jerome Powell Literally just said I Don't know if you guys heard that. do you guys know when I react here And then all of you guys were like, what? What did he just say? What did he just say? He literally said that if inflation doesn't continue to go down, they will have to raise rates more than they originally expected. That's hawkish.

that's not dovish, right? And then they also asked about what you think about the labor market. Um, you know, did it surprise you and he said yes. It does surprise me. Um, about what was reported last week.

So um, his point was that he was doing a lot for a small seller. Yeah, I kind of took it that way. I don't know I just I don't know if it was just the delivery, but uh I thought it was a little bit more of a jab then. uh, thank you for what? I guess yeah he says thank you for your service of what you do for our country for 180k a year.

Um, isn't wasn't the host of this um live like extremely wealthy Here it goes, let's see if we break above this moving average. I'm ready to buy more if the reversal happens, but I'm not going to do it if we don't wait for confirmation, right? Um, I don't necessarily think that what was said was better than expected I would have actually expected the market to sell off. that might just be me I don't know how you guys and yeah, uh, interpreted that but uh for for Jerome How to say that? You know, hey, we will raise rates more than what we said at first if inflation is not moving in the way that we want it to. and to me that's hawkish that is not dovish of like hey, the economy is actually doing good.

uh, we're just going to let it be right? Um, and he talked about the quantitative tightening I don't know if you guys were paying attention to that. Um, but I mean they're talking about yeah, they have reduced their balance sheet a little bit. Uh, but not to the rate of the I think it was 95 billion dollars every single month is what they're saying that they can reduce their balance sheet with mortgage-backed Securities and treasury yields. Uh, and they have not done that.

Um, so that's the part that I find quite surprising of why the Market's even holding up here because what was said wasn't necessarily in my opinion in any way good. Uh, but again, it doesn't matter what I think it matters how the Market's reacting and this is why we wait for confirmation. A lot of people like to complain of like oh Ricky you locked in profits too early. Well we're not saying that now right again, my job's not to be perfect I'm not a perfect Trader I make mistakes all the time.

but guess what? locking in profits should never be a stake that you should never be a a thing you over complicate right? Being green, being profitable, walk away right? Thirty eight hundred dollars? Yeah, it might not be an insane day. um I probably could have made you know ten thousand dollars with my position size like this was a pretty insane move and I agree with you but I just it just seemed too risky to me of of we've seen this happen too many times when Jerome Powell speaks and then shortly after there's a huge change of direction or when there's an interest rate hike the market goes one way and then he begins to speak and then it changes complete. uh uh, completely right. And that's what I wanted to avoid I Didn't want to end up regretting being in the green and then going into the red I Personally think that's one of the worst feelings when it comes down to trading in the market.

I would rather play it safe now that it pulled on back I can now re-enter at a lower price point not perfectly and I don't have to do it super aggressively, but I can allow the opportunity to present itself right I stayed calculated I stayed light I reduced my position size when I saw the market to be overbought I was not perfect with my exit. but I wasn't bad, right? right around the 26 I think it was like 26, 22, 26, 23. you guys all saw it happen in that live stream. Uh, and then we once we got that confirmation of that reversal.

Now I'm very happy right? because now I have an option to buy more if I want to and I think that's the best thing is we always want to feel like we have options to buy if we want to, not because we need to or that we're hoping for the market to recover. So are there any reports that are due tomorrow? There should be, right? So economic reports that we have for tomorrow. There's one during the pre-market session, but nothing too significant. So the one that's going to be kind of like important to pay attention to is on.

Thursday We have initial claims and continuing claims and remember those are pretty much unemployment reports. Initial claims are people that are filing for all the unemployment checks for the first time. We have initial claims I'm sorry continuing claims of people falling for continuous unemployment for numerous times, right? So if that continues to go down month, week after after week, then we can expect that overall unemployment. Just like we expected last last time.

the market expected unemployment to go up, but for me, it didn't make any sense because you guys all know that we've been paying attention to those initial claims and continuing claims report and they've been going down week after week and they've been lower than expected. So how can we expect unemployment to go up if we're seeing less people file for unemployment checks week after week for an entire month? That just didn't make sense to me. But again, I I never like to give those expectations. One of the things that I always talk about is I share my opinion.

but I tell you at the end of the day, no one knows what what and how the Market's going to react, right? We? we've all seen it happen time and time again where the market could. Or you know, we've seen stocks report positive earnings. but yet the the stock might react in a negative way. It's It's a very confusing market.

So one of the things that I always try to kind of lead by example and try to preach to our beginner Traders is don't overcome. Look at it. Don't be so opinionated and thinking that you always have to be right, right? Sometimes it's good to kind of take a step back, allow the market to kind of do its thing. And if the opportunity presents itself, then don't be afraid to take advantage of the trade if it meets your criteria right? Kind of like we're doing right now.

I Don't know if the Market's going to continue to try to rally and or break below the moving average and sell off. I Don't know if I'm going to short the market or go long, but nonetheless I'm waiting for that confirmation. Either break above VMA or break below the moving average and at least I'm giving myself an option, right? This is what we talk about within our daily live trading session with our Learn Plan Profit Group every day. Imagine being able to watch me trade live like this every day.

It's a very simple question: Do you value it or do you not? So if you don't value it, then you probably shouldn't join my Lpp team, right? But when asking the question of like, well, what's one of the benefits of joining Lpp again, it's a one-time payment lifetime access. You get to watch me trade live every day. And it's a simple question you can ask yourself: Do you think that you would be more effective to being being able to watch me trade live every morning right at Market Open and again? I Worked with one team and one team only. It's my Lpp team and it's the second link in the description down below.

We're running our biggest sell to 150 off and for every new person that is signing up, we're giving you a free trading flag that you can actually claim on the thank you page once you actually purchase. And again, if you want to learn more about this, it's the second link down below. If you guys haven't checked out our mousepad collection, one thing that we are doing uh for the rest of today is we're giving away a free mouse pad with every order over 30 dollars. So if you want to redeem your free trading I'm sorry your free mouse pad that's going to be the fourth Link in the description or at Shoptechbutts.com I'll make sure that I continue to keep you guys up to date with these different economic reports.

Um, and if you're part of our Lpp team, I'll keep you guys up to date on our trade ideas. depending if I end up going long if we break above the EMA or if we break below the moving average and I end up actually going short. So overall, very happy with how today played out. We logged in profits, we played it safe and guess what? playing it safe often long term right often is better than being super aggressive and then regretting not locking in profits I Hope that I earned your thumbs up I upload new videos every single day about the stock market I Would love to be of value and of access to you, so feel free to send me a direct message at any time.

and that's the first and third link down below. But again, if you're ready to join our Lpp team, that's that second link in the description down below and I am using the Weeble trading application. it's free for everyone in the US And if you use my link which is the fifth Link in the description and deposit one dollar, you can earn up to 12 free shares and I will earn one free share. So overall, very excited to follow up.

I Appreciate your time and like always, let's make sure that we end the year on our green Now and Lpp team. It sounds it looks like I'm gonna have to send you an update right now because I'm thinking of taking a short position on that Cpq. so or short position on NASDAQ which is ask you I'm just waiting for that confirmation. so take.