Now we've got to talk. Kathy Wood and what is going on with this crazy Big Ideas pamphlet. It's 65 pages long. We're just gonna look at some of the bottom lines and comment on them, but she's got a 65 page report on her big.

Ideas We already know four or her five main. Theses For all of these public blockchain, she sees a large-scale incorporation of blockchain tech. Let me be very clear about my opinion on Blockchain Tech before. I Keep going here.

But my opinion on blockchain Tech is very, very simple. It is that in the future there's going to be no difference between blockchain technology which is fantastic and you turning on your water faucet. In other words, it is going to become a commoditized uh utility. I Don't want to say Monopoly because I think there will be many different utilities and much like in your area, you might be able to get a T or Spectrum There'll be a few big blockchains that most people use, and they can be customized for certain purposes or companies.

but I I I don't find necessarily. it's something that we can directly invest into without a substantial speculation premium at this point, and eventually they'll just end up lowering costs at corporations. So I think corporations will end up benefiting most from from blockchain utilities. Uh, and and so that's probably the best place to invest To get exposure to them is when it becomes profitable to use blockchains, companies will be all over that efficiency.

That's my take now. Ai Of course we expect AI to be big. We'll be talking about that here. Battery Storage robotics, you know? Tesla For example, buying their own robotics manufacturer in 2016? Uh, in Germany Fantastic.

Uh, multi-nomic sequencing or multi-ohmic Whatever. Genomic technology? Great. Still gonna be a while before. Uh, we've got substantial Gene editing going into people who are already live.

Uh, but uh, okay. it's gonna be a space to pay attention to over the next few decades. That's that's absolutely true. Uh, there's talk over here that uh, smart glasses, and basically virtual reality and augmented reality will be constrained until we get advances in battery energy density.

Yes, possibly. But this is actually where Apple has a very interesting potential solution. So Apple is coming out with this: this, uh, virtual Reality and augmented Reality headset. And what they're actually doing is they're detaching the battery from your actual head and it's probably something you'll end up putting in your pocket.

and uh, then, unfortunately, you have a, like, probably a stupid lightning cable or something going down there. But it'll increase the functionality a lot because the last thing you want is some kind of headset that you can only wear for like 20 minutes and the battery's dead. Yes, in the future, when boundary technology is substantially better, Yes, uh, it'll be a lot more convenient to be able to use these virtual reality and augmented reality headsets. personally though.

I'm very excited about being able to the Apple headset. I Want to play with that because they talk about being able to turn a wheel much like the wheel the Apple watch has and go from a virtual reality Vision to an augmented reality Vision Now I personally get headaches when I use virtual reality I think the best kind of virtual reality will be something more like a Google Glass where you basically look through glass and you see the world but you get those little Holograms or or you know heads up displays that can pop up I Like that idea but uh TBD the the woozy glasses that promise to do that were not were not very good. now. I Thought this was a little remarkable is that Kathy thinks we're going to potentially see 8.5 GDP growth between 2021 through at least 20 40.

if not through 2025. that's crazy. Now oftentimes I think a lot of the projections that Kathy and Ark invest do and I respect them a lot I agree with her will probably exceed GDP growth estimates. Uh, but I think sometimes the projections they give are designed to make you go that's nuts and then make people talk about it.

It's a great marketing tool, fantastic marketing tool, but in order to sort of showcase how different this would be, we have this really highly manipulated graph on the left that takes GDP growth rates going all the way back to I kid you not 100 000 BC before the Common Era So in other words, one hundred thousand One hundred and two thousand twenty three years ago is is where we go back to starting to measure. GDP For historical context: I Don't think this is the kind of historical context we need. but anyway, Kathy believes instead of our economy is growing at 2.6 globally, they're going to grow at 8.5 percent. This is pretty remarkable I Don't think so uh, especially with a deflation uh coming which Kathy and I agree on that the deflation is is probably a greater risk than inflation uh, leading to substantial more productivity with less spending, more productivity.

less spending in theory should unlock more GDP growth. or just unlocks less spending and people investing more. And if people invest more, their wealth goes up, which is great. But if their wealth goes up, GDP doesn't necessarily go up because the velocity of money on investing is like one to two, whereas the velocity of money on spending is like four to five.

So if people invest more, they become richer. They're able to do more with less, but they don't necessarily contribute to GDP as much. I don't know about that and I don't like the manipulation of the chart so I'm gonna give a red flag on that now. I Do like this I Agree with Kathy when she says that AI training costs are declining at an annual rate of 70 percent and that now the cost to train a language model has gone down from 4.6 million dollars to just 450 000 in two years and that AI should increase the productivity of knowledge workers by more than 4X.

Now there are two things that you need to know here. Number one: what should you do to prevent yourself from getting replaced by AI? There's only one thing you can do. You can be a creative. That's it.

You have to be able to prove that you have creative input, otherwise you will get replaced by a robot. Okay, the second thing to know about this is I and I got a lot of a lot of like. A lot of people were freaking out at me when I was talking about house hack using AI uh which which we will do with with human moderation. but a lot of people were freaking out about this because they're like Kevin how are you gonna spend more money on AI than Google does? That doesn't make sense.

you're an idiot. That's the kind of crap that I was getting in the comments and it basically shouted to me God you know nothing about AI because see, we can actually build our own AI using Google's AI that's the point. So the better things like chat GPT get and the better things like Google AI get the easier it is for us to use their neural Nets train them the way we want them and then we become more efficient. So AI is not this this crazy world of everybody trying to build their own house, right? It's not like everybody's trying to build their own little Hut and while that companies are creating their own little Huts A better analogy is to think about it as like there's a massive house and what you're really doing is you're kind of like expanding that you're trying to build on top of that house like hey, let's build another add-on and let's build a second story.

All right, it's it's building blocks that are that are being created would be a better analogy. like think about it as sort of like Legos right? The better Google gets and the larger Foundation they build, the more people can build on top by using their products and services with uh, say like a Google AI or whatever. So I actually think it's great. the better AI gets in in Enterprise the more companies can implement it into their own businesses.

It's fantastic. Absolutely fantastic. So okay, some PDFs here. uh, or some charts here on basically things becoming less expensive for AI Bill Fine, Already talked about that.

Uh AI could lead to a tenfold increase in productivity. Vendors could capture 10 of the value created by the products, and AI Engineers could generate up to 14 trillion in Revenue blah blah blah. Okay, whatever. So you get some crazy projections here on AI But the other argument here that Kathy makes is that she believes that uh AI will reduce the amount of average hours worked per day globally, even more.

Apparently right now, the average hours worked and I didn't know this, but apparently the average hour hours worked daily. This includes like weekends and holidays and everything is 4.7 So on average people work about 4.7 hours a day and Kathy projects this will go down to about 4.4 and that reduction in worked hours will probably lead to more time spent online. More time spent online should be good for companies like Trade Desk. Now, while she doesn't specifically mention Trade Desk, she does talk about how connected TV ad spend should grow 20 in real terms at a compounded annual rate, especially as TV non-digital ad spend goes digital.

Interesting. Okay, now this though I thought was a little bit of a stretch talking about immersive virtual experiences should Galvanize the next wave of Gaming And she's using this almost metaverse-esque example to suggest that Disneyland in California gets about 20 million at an annualized rate uh, attendees. and that Tommy play in Roblox or Walmart land get more like 35 million annualized visitors. Okay, first of all, I don't think focusing on what children like five-year-olds are doing on Roblox is at all relative to families going to Disneyland which is extremely expensive to travel to and extremely expensive to stay at.

an extremely expensive to visit for Park tickets and extremely expensive when you're on the inside and you want to even just survive on food and and drinks that you can get there and you can't even get alcohol and most of of Disneyland Parks which is crazy. It's like a crime. but anyway, beyond beyond focusing on that crime I I Don't know that there's any value at all. And comparing the annualized attendance to theme parks in Roblox to real amusement parks I I Don't really think this matters at all.

Okay, Max attends theme parks daily in Roblox and roller coaster tycoons daily in Roblox That has in my opinion, zero to do with our spending when we go to an actual theme park I Don't know. So I'm not really sure where that's going, but then again, you know kids do spend a lot of money on Roblox Okay, then we talk about digital wallets and how digital wallets are taking over. I'm a little skeptical about some of this data because a lot of people have multiple digital wallets and I'm not sure that people having multiple digital wallets has been accounted for and some of these charts and I think that's a big risk factor. Yes, more people are getting digital with their wallets.

Yes, cash is going down. Thankfully, cash is stupid. You should never spend money. uh, with cash unless you're buying drugs or things that are illegal.

Uh, beyond that I Think everything should be on a credit card. Don't use debit cards. And of course, we should see digital wallet growth. But then again, I've got like I feel like 17 digital wallets so I'm not confident in in some of those charts.

Uh, I do think it's interesting, you know. Kathy makes it very clear there have been a lot of negative things that have happened for crypto markets. Positive things that have happened for markets. Uh, but she talks most interestingly here about Nfts highlighting the potential for mainstream crypto demand and could private key cryptography in the hands of Millions I I I don't I don't know that I support some of these vague claims Like dozens of companies and Publishers have announced web 3 ambitions.

The only reason companies are doing that is because it was a fad. The only reason Disney wanted to start selling uh, you know, digital versions of Spider-Man doing stupid poses on you know, Vive or whatever is because people are actually buying that garbage and it's just a profit opportunity. I Do not actually think that Nfts have any mainstream functionality if you're just buying poses. Now it's one thing.

if I'm going to be able to buy an Nft and and uh, you know that gives, that's like my annual pass for going to Disney Fine, but if the annual pass for Disney I don't know what it costs, let's say it's cost a thousand bucks. Okay, let's say the annual cost to attend a Disney park is a thousand dollars am I Gonna pay two thousand dollars for the Nft of that annual pass? Hell no. Would I pay a thousand twenty five dollars and you know I I get some other perk that I value at twenty five dollars would I then get the Nft fine but it has to align with the the value. The value proposition has to be so great to convince me to actually give a crap that it really doesn't make a difference relative to here's your annual pass card.

Okay, great. It's now on my Apple wallet or my, you know, the Nft part of my Apple wall. Do I Really think that has some kind of potential for massive like revenue for companies? No, it's just basically moving things from a physical thing to a digital thing like the Apple wallet like when I go to Dave and Buster's now I don't use the Dave Buster's power card anymore I used to spend so much money as a child at Dave and Buster's and I don't understand how my dad pulled it off because we live paycheck to paycheck and didn't have money to do this. but it'd still take me to Dave Busters all the time.

and I'd always play at that stupid rigged game where the little light goes around in the circle and then you try to hit the dot and I'd win the jackpot a lot. but we know it's rigged. Uh, it would. I I didn't realize it was rigged then I I refuse to play it now because I realize it's raid.

but anyway, thanks. Uh, who did it Mark Roper I think did the piece on that. But anyway. I had the gold card back then.

okay I felt powerful now. I just have a stupid little digital thing in my arm. Whatever. All right.

So uh, okay, yeah, so we know Bitcoin is inflation resistant, but this is ridiculous. To to suggest that Bitcoin is transparent is absolutely ridiculous. We have no idea who holds what wallets. Yes, we can track as things move, but so the transparency argument is not there yet unless we know, uh, who who holds every wallet address.

There's really little transparency, especially when you have things like which. I Know tornado Cash was shut down, but there are plenty of other things like tornado cash that make it very difficult for you to figure out what is going on on blockchain. Uh, yes, the theory of it is transparent, but but it's somewhat ridiculous. So uh, okay.

Bitcoin has a durable Network Bitcoin getting to a trillion dollar uh, market cap again? uh, or or yeah, uh. billion? Okay, yeah. and then Bitcoin going to a million bucks a coin. The thesis of going to a billion.

A million dollars a coin is really this thesis that it's going to take the place of gold. So let's go over here. Here is the price: Target Assumption So the bear case is that no corporations want to hold Bitcoin Is that in the bear case? Global Remittances. So sending is five percent.

Okay, maybe because it's easier to send money internationally fine Emerging Market Currency point five percent. Maybe it's not going great for El Salvador right now, but maybe. uh. Global seizure resistant asset Global High net worth individual deposits into Bitcoin one percent.

In her bear case, she believes that Bitcoin will represent 20 of the gold market. The Gold: Market's like 10 trillion dollars right now. And uh, the bear case for Kathy is that by 2030, we're going to sit at uh Bitcoin Uh, two trillion dollars solely because of gold. That's a 5x from where we are now.

It's not too terribly unbelievable to think that is possible that that that's not terribly unbelievable. So that's that's a 5x, roughly four to five vaccine market cap. 20 of gold reserves in in Bitcoin as a digital gold, especially with its inflation resistance. I'll actually give credit to that idea.

Do we think it'll go to Five a 50 in the uh, the bull case over here. A little more of a stretch by 2030 Maybe by 2040 2050.. But if the other assumptions start getting a little extreme, that potentially five percent of all corporate cash will be in Bitcoin or that 25. So in other words, one in four Global remittances would be done through BTC and ten percent of all U.S Settlement volumes going through BTC For banking I Don't think so I Think banks will use their own blockchains, but I don't think that will have anything to do with Bitcoin or necessarily the Bitcoin lightning.

Network So I'm very skeptical of of the bull case scenario. Uh, then of course we get to the idea of pharmaceuticals need. Innovation I Mean this is very true. Big fan of that I Think actually the biggest risk for Pharma is uh, what kind of Regulation we get out of controversies like the Pfizer controversies, right? Because think about it.

Look, it's obvious Pfizer exposes itself to the potential for gain of function research. They don't call it that they call it directed Evolution Because basically what they're doing is they're taking viruses and looking at hey, if we infect five monkeys with this virus which monkey has the most contagious strand now, let's take that really contagious monkey and infect a bunch of other monkeys with it. and then they'll take the most contagious out of that that is called directed Evolution But it's dangerous because it's likely to lead to a virus that can actually gain functions because you're taking the more virulent strain over and over and over again. And so there's a risk to this sort of research of substantially new forms of Regulation that limit the potential for businesses like Pfizer to actually continue conducting this sort of research.

Now on one hand, this is where Society has to say. how much of that kind of studying do we want? and are we okay with that kind of research? I Don't know, but there's a lot of social media backlash over that, which could potentially lead to a lot of new regulation that actually crimps the ability of the pharmaceutical in Industry to continue to to innovate with with a lot of the type of research they do now, especially when it comes to mRNA research we'll see I mean it seems pretty incredible, at least the potential that mRNA could help solve things like cancers or cardio diseases or neurological diseases. And and so it'll be interesting. but I think there's there's definitely a regulatory risk factor of investing all in on genomics and and Pharma right now and personally I know enough to know that I know nothing about the pharmaceutical industry and for me, if I don't understand it, I'm not going to invest in it.

that's just my taking it. I Do think there are going to be some really incredible new therapies uh, in the pharmaceutical and Gene editing world I'm really? Blown Away With the stuff that you can already do right now, even just sequencing embryos to decide hey, like which, which baby, uh, embryo do you want to implant in an in vitro fertilization scenario that maybe doesn't have certain diseases uh that that certain members of a couple have. So you know if a couple, one person and a couple has asthma, you could actually look at the embryos and go which of the embryos doesn't have asthma and implant that. Now that's also starting to lead to ethical concerns over.

hey, like are we, you know, engineering children? Uh, so these are all going to be things that Society sort of has to deal with uh and uh and evaluate. and I'll tell you I know way too little about the Pharma industry to uh to be able to place bets there. So uh, but I'm very curious about it. We'll see what happens.

I Do think regulatory concerns are going to be a huge potential impediment? Uh, Anyway, so uh, here on the electric vehicle space Arc forecasts that electric vehicle prices will Decline and sales will increase at more than a 50 annual rate to 60 million units by 2027. I'll tell you if we're going to get to 60 million electric vehicles by 2027, there's going to be nobody other than Tesla and maybe Byd that actually have the potential to fulfill that kind of demand that quickly. Uh, Ford thinks they're going to get to 600 000 Vehicles by 2025 and I don't believe them as far as I could throw them I don't believe Ford at all I think Ford's full of crap, especially having gone through their last drawings called it's disgusting They see their biggest they Dodge questions on margin because they believe for their actual electric vehicles because they don't expect margin on electric vehicles because they can't figure out how to be efficient in manufacturing. they expect to make lots of money on software.

But then you have to ask yourself, do you really think Ford is a software developer? It's not a bet I would make not at all faster charging rates projected by Arc Kind of interesting to me, especially since Uh Arc suggests that EVS have reached price parities with internal combustion engine vehicles. I Believe this. Uh, the EV charging rate. Uh, so this this forecast I also think is actually very exciting because one of the most frustrating things with TR uh charging right now electric vehicles is it takes long.

It still takes long. You can go to a supercharger. and yes, the superchargers are great, but you go to most of the regular charging infrastructure that we have the charge. Point Chargers uh, whatever.

uh Electrify America Chargers These things are slow. You're not getting a substantially fast charge at a lot of these places you're going to when you go to a restaurant, and oftentimes you go to. let's say Disney World where they have charge Point uh chargers for Disneyland where they have them. You're plugging this thing in overnight.

so once the Stalls are taken, they're taken for a while just to charge one of these up. So that leads to a lot of anxiety for the potential new Adoption of EVS A lot of folks at least anecdotally who, uh, or resistant to an Eevee or worried about the potential for being able to charge quickly and so I agree that charging rates need to improve and Kathy here suggests that in the past four years, charging rates have already improved nearly threefold from 40 minutes to 15 minutes for 200 miles of range. and during the next five years, it could drop fourfold Again, she projects to getting 200 miles of range in four minutes. Now that is pretty fascinating.

If there's the potential, we could get down to 200 uh miles of range in just four minutes I Think EV adoption can sustain Uh, this this growth that she's projecting getting to 60 million Vehicles over 20 by 2027 Because you need people suggesting oh, I only need to plug in for four minutes? That's less than the time it takes to fill up my my car with gas to get you know, to 300 miles of gas. Uh, uh, range at Uh at a gas station. So kind of fascinating. Interesting idea: Battery cost decline should continue to drive exponential growth in EV sales.

Yep, totally agree with that. Although EV sales have scaled exponentially, the consensus forecast is linear now. I Think there's the potential and and maybe she talks about it here, but there's the potential. She's not considering the supply limitations via Lithium or battery materials needed.

So in other words, the Wall Street estimates or that electric vehicles are going to grow at a relatively stable rate where she expects to see this essentially explosion in electric vehicle adoption. But the limitation of Supply chains might be an issue here that will lower the potential for Ev adoption. Uh, and and restrict the Kathy Woody and projection of EV growth. and that's not really mentioned here as a risk factor.

I Think it should be mentioned all right. So then, uh, we've got Autonomous Ride hailing scaling towards widespread commercial adoption today. Autonomous Ride Hailing Services Delight Riders across 15 cities internationally. Okay, I don't think we're close to this.

I Understand that in certain cities things are perfectly mapped out, but I don't think we're mapping the world anytime soon. And I think even though for example, Tesla's full self-driving is pretty good, you know I give it a 90 grade. Tesla's full self-driving is still not good at seeing dips in the road elevation changes on the road. Even with the latest software update, it still does funky things like if you need.

This is probably my biggest complaint with Tesla Uh, full self-driving I'll just draw it out. Okay, if you are on a let's say uh uh, this is a road over here. This number one lane over here is a left turn. Uh, Lane that uh, that sort of appears so that means you you have a curb here and then the left turn lane appears right.

and that left turn lane is just a temporary left turn lane. so you could turn left at a traffic intersection. So you've got the number one lane here. on the left.

The number two lane is your continuation of traffic lane, the number three lane is another continuation of traffic lane, and then your number four lane is a merge lane. So it's a temporary merge lane that then disappears. it gets curved off right and let's say the Tesla enters uh, this space from the right. I Have to deal with this regularly in multiple different areas.

The Tesla enters from the right, so it's in the number I don't know. Three lane over here, uh, on the right. the Tesla very regularly when it has to enter uh, traffic from a right term and it needs to end up all the way on the right on on the left. So we're gonna go from X to X1.

That's what we need to do. The car is still regularly prefers to go into number four, get up to speed at number three Totally Miss the left turn panic and slow down over here and try to come to a stop to try to go over here. Does this at multiple different intersections. It still has not gotten the mentality that maybe I should wait for traffic to clear and instead of going into the number four lane, I should wait until traffic's clear and go all the way over.

Still not doing that now. I Understand that's just software. we can get there. I'm just saying it's stuff like this.

It's stuff like dips in the road and it's those more complicated scenarios that it's still not good at yet. I give it that 10. So 90 good 10. Still doing a lot of learning.

Uh, and I think it's going to be quite a while before we get this sort of mass scale of autonomous taxis. Hopefully it's as Arc suggests by 2026, that might be a little optimistic. Now the idea that ride hailing is an 11 trillion dollar potential addressable. Market Yeah, I'll agree with this.

I I Agree that in the future we probably won't even have our own cars. We'll just be able to take an iPhone app and go take me from here to here. And then you can get rid of parking lots. Then you can get rid of having a car and owning a car.

but that's probably still 10 plus years away. This idea is. well, that taxis could eliminate sixty percent of short haul airline flights. Also somewhat interesting because flying sucks.

Yeah, it's you know, going to the airport dealing with TSA Uh, and and having to fly you know to like, say Vegas You know a a commute from here to Vegas is about six hours, but if I need to do that through Lax I'm looking at at least an hour of a commute to get there. You got to be two hours early. I Know you could show up last minute, but then it's scary and then you get flight delays. Then you gotta actually fly, then you're at the airport.

Then you gotta get a rental car. When you're there, you're not saving any time. You're still looking at a six hour commute. You may as well have just driven it.

They have an autonomous tax. You could do it if the battery ranges are long enough. hey, maybe maybe so. uh.

and then of course we get to autonomous Logistics Robotics And that. So it's an interesting idea that uh, as time goes on, things, of course, are going to become a lot more, uh, autonomous. and we'll see a substantial adoption in electric vehicles and autonomous taxis. But a lot of these projections while they're they're clearly on the horizon I Think in the near term are not anywhere close to us yet full autonomous taxis? Me: I don't I don't see it yet until at least 2028 and Beyond uh, at least another two to three years beyond the projections here, a million dollar Bitcoin takes some substantial uh, especially optimistic adoption hopes that I don't think we're going to see in blockchain uh, genomics I Think are going to get really hampered by regulation especially where we see uh, sort of Humanity right now.

And it's and its willingness to allow uh pharmaceutical companies to essentially have free reign on genomics and and the engineering of uh of DNA probably going to be some regulatory impediments in this world. and I think this is why you've got a lot of pharmaceutical companies kind of racing to do as much as they can now before they start getting limited. Uh, and then of course we have to consider Supply chains for Batteries Uh, artificial intelligence? That's probably the place I Agree with Kathy the most in that really? you can build Ai No Matter What company you are right now using what's already been learned in the AI space. So absolutely agree with Kathy on the AI space and the potential for revolution in EV is there.

It's probably going to take a little bit longer than expected though, but overall these are very good ideas and we are moving towards a future that is in line with Kathy's vision of the future. Uh, but I'm I'm not certain how that they will come as fast as expected. if you're able to charge at home, it's not really an issue. Uh, in terms of fast charging? Yeah, Maybe you got to keep in mind though, a lot of people are frustrated about the ideas of or the idea of of buying electric vehicles because they they a lot of folks.

When they make the decision to purchase a vehicle, they think about what they might do, not what they regularly do right? So a lot of folks are like oh well, what's the range Oh can I get to Vegas and back without having to charge like these these? ideas of The Edge case scenario surprisingly weigh a lot in purchasing decisions. Now I'm going to make this up because I don't know this with certainty. but I wouldn't be surprised that the range of a vehicle probably uh is is a purchasing factor for that has about a 30 weight. I'm making that up.

but I would believe that people's decision to purchase one car over another in the electric vehicle space 30 percent of the decision goes into range I'm making that up. but I would not be surprised if that's true. On the flip side, the average daily commute for people is about 25 miles. So really, round trip, you don't need more than an 80 mile battery.

That that gives you, you know, 50 miles for your round trip And a little bit of bonus, you really don't need more than about 80 miles of range per day for the average user yet. I think on average, most people substantially overvalue how much range they actually need and that's gonna take a while. And so I think Kathy's argument that hey, well, as we, uh, have charging Networks that are more convincing to buyers, we will be able to sell more EVS So I that's where I agree with her on that argument.