What's up? Graham It's guys here and 2023 is already off to an interesting start. For example, a Florida woman was recently pulled from a storm drain for the third time in two years. the National Guard general was fired for ordering troops to take his mom shopping and the stock market had its best January in 20 years. Yes You heard that correctly.

The stock market is doing so well that Facebook and Nordstrom surged more than 20 in a single day. Jim Cramer says for now in another bull market which you could interpret that however you want and Oppenheimer believes that the S P 500 could hit 4 600 by this upcoming June But others like Morgan Stanley Michael burry and Bob doleworn that you should take profits while you still can because they think that we're in the eye of the storm before everything goes to Sh. That's why we should really cover some crucial reasons that you probably shouldn't be investing in stocks in 2023. How some investors are making a ton of money by following one simple report and a new investment strategy that could potentially change the way that you build wealth.

On this episode of this is your daily reminder to hit the like button and subscribe if you haven't done that already because I'm trying to edit this video really late at night to get it to post the next day. So thank you guys so much And also a big thank you to Wellfront for sponsoring this video, but more on that later. All right. So to start when it comes to investing I Hate to break it to you, but it's probably a good idea to realize that you're most likely not going to be the next.

Warren Buffett Who will beat the market I Mean fine I Know it seems easy to sell when Jerome Powell turns off the money printer and buy one Ryan Cohen takes interest in a company, but when it really comes down to it, your chance of getting any better than the average are so small that ninety percent have actively managed funds failed to outperform the S P 500 over a 15-year period. Though sure, in the short term, you will naturally see some outliers, some of which are incredibly talented, and others are just lucky being in the right place at the right time. But what I found most surprising is that even the funds that do beat the market still have investors within them that wind up losing money. And a perfect example of this is what's called the Magellan fund.

This is the world's best known mutual funds that had record-setting growth under the management of Peter Lynch from 1977 to 1990, and even despite their incredible success having outperformed the market for over 15 years by a long shot, it was reported that the average investor lost money during a period of time where the fund returned around 29 annual. So why are investors so bad at investing? Well during those years? As you would expect, there are some really good times and some really bad times and when the average investor bought in with the excitement at the peak and then sold off their Investments when everything lost money, they logged in their losses and missed out on all the subsequent growth had they just held on and done nothing. Now, even though this sounds like a case of don't time the markets, it's a really important reminder that you should not be buying stocks if you're chasing returns and expecting above the average. Although speaking of the average, that is another problem that we really got to discuss.

That's because when you look at market returns, it's important to understand that even though the stock market increases an average of 10 percent a year, actually getting 10 a year is incredibly rare. As the wealth of Common Sense blog points out who a link to Down Below in the description, the market is only returned between 8 to 12 in a year five times since 1926.. that's it. Or basically, to put it another way, eight to twelve percent one-year returns happen just as often as the market going up forty percent in a year.

Not to mention, even more absurd is that only 18 of returns have been between five percent to fifteen percent in any given year. And it's more common to see double-digit price increases or decreases than it is to get a return around the average. That's why it's generally suggested that if you're investing, you have to have an Outlook of decades, not just years. And if you view market returns from the lens of a 30-year period since 1926, the best return was 13.6 percent, while the worst was an eight percent return from 1929 to 1958..

Now sure, there's no guarantee that U.S markets will do as well in the future as they did in the past and AI could very well be taking over these videos to the point where everything I say is generated with chat Gbt. Well, I become an entirely made up photorealistic moving image. But that's why there's another solution. for those who want to take a slightly different approach and that would be the Golden Butterfly portfolio.

This strategy was created as a way to handle whatever Jerome Powell throws your way from recessions, unemployment, Rising inflation, deflation, and even an endless money printer. So instead of turning your account into a roller coaster of emotion, you're able to capitalize in a diverse group of Investments That long-term make money without the stress of losing it. That's because throughout our economy we have four cycles that your portfolio needs to handle. and that would be rising prices, falling prices, rising growth or falling growth.

And in each of those four quadrants, there's a best performing asset that could be used to keep your portfolio in the green. In this case though, it's a mixture of stocks, equities, bonds, and commodities. Equities do the best when the market goes up. Commodities do the best when inflation goes up and bonds take care of the rest when everything else just goes down.

The since high growth is generally a lot more common throughout history than let's say, record high inflation. Each category is weighted slightly differently to take advantage of what's most likely going to happen, which is prosperity. Because of that, the golden butterflies broken down into five equally weighted segments: Twenty percent U.S Large Cap 20 U.S Small Cap 20 long-term treasuries, 20 short-term treasuries, and 20 gold. Although the most surprising aspect of this is that throughout the last 43 years, The Golden Butterfly portfolios had almost the same compounded rate of return is a hundred percent stocks, but with sixty percent less volatility.

Even more impressive is that the worst deer only saw a drop of 11, and the most severe drawdown period was his two years until he broke even. Of course, the downside here is that nothing is perfect and more recently, this portfolio is severely underperformed relative to the S P 500, so only time is going to tell how well this one actually carries on. But another approach to making a lot of money in the markets comes from none other than Hindenburg research. and when you look at their track record, it is absolutely unbelievable.

However, before we go into that, it's extremely important to understand how the Federal Reserve's actions are about to impact the overall market, and even though higher interest rates are shown to provide headwinds for equities in real estate, there is a benefit for those who save their money, all thanks to the sponsor of this portion of the video Wealthfront. See, here's the thing. As of the other day, the FED raised interest rates by another 25 basis points. That means the amount that you could earn from bonds, treasuries, and savings accounts just increased.

However, not all institutions pass on the additional savings to you, and that's a problem. Fortunately, though, Wealthfront does and is currently offering one of the highest Apys on the market at 4.05 percent within their cash account. That means if you were to deposit ten thousand dollars, you would be on Pace to earn 413 dollars just from your savings alone in the first year. This amount is also 12 times higher than the national average, which is why it's so important that you research how much you're currently getting so that you could better optimize moving forward.

On top of that, current clients are also able to refer a friend and both of you will get a half a percent interest rate increase for an additional three months. That means if you refer four friends, you'll get the bonus for the entire year bringing your total interest to 4.55 apy. Not to mention with Wealth French your money is FDIC insured up to two million dollars through their partner. Banks There are zero account fees, unlimited fee-free transfers, and no minimum account size to get started.

This is also a company that I've personally been using since 2019 and have really enjoyed their free financial planning tools which could help you calculate your net worth whether you're saving enough for your future goals, or if you just want to track your income and expenses. So if you're interested, feel free to check them out with the link Down Below in the description and begin earning 4.05 interest on your money. Enjoy! Thank you so much And now let's get back to the video all right now in terms of making a lot of money in the markets, One company has a very unique approach and that would be Hindenburg Research: Appropriately named after the Hindenburg disaster because that's essentially what happens to every company once they release the report. See for those unaware: Hindenburg Research looks from man-made disasters floating around in the market and aims to shed light on them before they lure in more unsuspecting victims.

And in a true capitalistic approach, they short the stock that they then subsequently attack with rather spectacular results. In fact, as the Market Sentiment Blog pointed out, they've issued over 30 reports in the last six years and on average the stocks were down 13 percent the day after the reports go live, but that's only the tip of the iceberg in 2020. Hindenburg Published their belief that Nikola Motors was built on dozens of lies and that they have never seen this level of deception at a public company, especially the size. They then went on to prove that Nikola Motors staged their videos, cashed out, aggressively, misled Partners into believing they had proprietary technology, and pointed the Founder's Brothers the Director of Hydrogen Production and infrastructure despite his past experience being limited to pouring concrete driveways and of course, as it turned out, shortly after the report, their founder was convicted of Fraud and the stock price fell 95 percent.

They've also uncovered the mess of clover Health while accusing them of misleading investors, not disclosing that they were under an active investigation with the Department of Justice in concealing multiple conflicts of interest while raising money and as you would expect, their stock price dropped 90 percent. We also have Lordstown motors, which they claim had fictitious orders used to raise Capital secured a 735 million dollar deal from an apartment in Texas that doesn't operate a vehicle Fleet and none of their Concepts had undergone any sort of testing. Again, that stock is also down 90 percent from there. Hindenburg Research discloses that they hold an active short position, meaning that the more the stock price goes down, the more money they make.

So how is all of this legal? Especially when the company knowingly profits from release Seeing negative information? Well, the short answer is pun intended is that short sellers actively disclose their short position. They cite research. They emphasize that this is based on their opinion, and if the business is truly fine, they should have no difficulty proving it. Not to mention, there's also the belief that these reports provide a valuable service with the financial incentive to provide as much detail as possible on companies which may not be acting as they should.

In addition to that, many lawyers argue that as long as their reports contain no material inaccuracies and are not based on inside information, they've done nothing wrong. But others argue that the SEC should propose rules, forcing them to hold their positions for at least 10 days, disclose when they've exited their short position, or for rules to change entirely, so that activist Short Selling is seen as Market manipulation. Although in terms of investing throughout 2023, there are some points that you should keep in mind because you probably shouldn't be investing unless you're prepared to handle these five scenarios. First, you probably shouldn't be investing for the short term.

The thing is, is all for previous researchers found the stock market's returns are rarely ever average and we begin looking at them from a 10 to 20 year time. Horizon Because of that, short-term movements are completely unpredictable and outside of your control. Which means if you're expecting to make 30 percent over the next three years, you're probably going to have a bad time. Second, do Not invest too much without diversifying now.

I Get it? Even though it's tempting to want to. YOLO Everything you have into Bitcoin and Tesla It's probably not a good idea from the perspective of risk, because the more money you could make, the more money you could lose. Third, do not blindly follow others. I Know this seems like common sense, but it's not.

Anytime people are all driving into one stock company or asset, it's a good idea to take a step back and think to yourself if this company has any actual value, or if you're just moving with the herds because that's what everyone else is doing. From my experience, the best, most profitable Investments Also tend to be the most boring, and even though they might not go up by a hundred percent in a year, they're also not going to leave you with massive losses. The fourth along that train of thought, you also shouldn't time the market. Statistically the best time to buy is consistently over a long period of time short term Anything Can Happen Stock prices are completely unpredictable and anything could change on a moment's notice.

Not to mention, anytime you time the market, you have to be right twice. once when you sell, and then again when you buy back in, and the chance of getting them both correct is probably not going to happen. And finally, fifth, you probably shouldn't be investing if you can't handle your emotions personally. The only way to remain completely neutral is to understand fundamentally what you're investing in and limit your exposure to the point where if it goes down, you're not going to lose sleep.

From my experience speaking with hundreds of people, if you're at the point where you're watching a stock account, you can't concentrate and you're panicking over a 20 drop. Chances are you've invested too much, you don't understand fully what you're invested in, and it might be a good idea to scale back to the point where you could think objectively. That way you'll be able to hold through long-term term until it recovers. Hopefully, so, those are the reasons why you probably shouldn't be buying stocks in 2023, Unless of course, you can follow those guidelines and invest responsibly so that you don't wind up posting losses on Wall Street bets.

So again, thank you to Wealthfront for sponsoring this video. All of their information is down below in the description. Also, feel free to add me on Instagram And don't forget you could also get a free stock at Public.com Graham using the link Down Below in the description because that could be worth all the way up to a thousand dollars. Enjoy! Thank you so much And until next time.