February 3rd that is when Jobs data comes out. I will be streaming Jobs data live at 5 30 a.m and that can actually shift sentiment for the good news that we're seeing in the stock market now following. Powell But the Jobs data itself tomorrow won't be the big Catalyst that we solely want to pay attention to because there could be a lot more. and in this video I Break down what to pay attention to at the: Federal Reserve Now that Jerome Powell has started to tell us that the beginning of disinflation is here, let's take a look at that link down below.

Remember: February 3rd Jobs Data: 5 30 in the morning February 3rd, 11, 59 PM Expiration of the coupon code linked down below for the lifetime access to the programs on building your wealth most popular right now: stocks on Psychology of Money, the do-it-yourself Property Management Bundled with the zero to Millionaire Real Estate Investing course and the Elite Hustlers Course to build your business, grow your business as an entrepreneur or grow your income at as an employee. so we've got of course some building your income from Investments and building your income from your job and strategies, tax tricks, liability tricks, and a lot of great information that's very difficult or potentially impossible to get anywhere else. Thanks so much! Look forward to seeing you there and let's get into the content. All right, let's talk about what's next for the Federal Reserve After dovish comments are from Jerome Powell yesterday, which were surprisingly more dovish than we expected I mean essentially Jerome Powell The more he talked, The more The market went up.

Usually it's the opposite. The more he talks, the more the market goes down. And I think it's really important to start with an inflation discussion and what we really need to see happen in order to see Jerome Powell's dovishness continue. So I'm going to show you exactly the sectors that you want to pay attention to when it comes to inflation coming down.

It's not Goods inflation. We know that goods are already disinflating coming down in inflation rates. We know that housing and shelter is expected to start showing massive declines for inflation, which could help anchor the inflation reports down substantially. However, Jerome Powell is concerned that when you look at inflation X Housing X Energy X Food Basically, you just look at what they call the super core of services, which is where higher wages could hurt inflation.

The following are the sectors that we're looking at on screen. Now we have: water and sewer and trash collection Services Domestic services lawn mowing, repair of household items Medical expenses That's a big one. Medical expenses sitting at a nearly a seven percent weight Professional Services Sitting at about a 3.4 percent weight. Within that, that would include physicians, dental eyeglasses Hospital Services Notice that in hospital services in the last CPI report, we actually got a 1.7 inflation read month over month.

That's pretty high High That's pretty aggressive though we did get a substantial drop in Services by other medical professionals. so Medical Care Services overall only increased about 0.1 percent, but if we see a a jump in that in future inflation reports, we could actually be setting up for potentially a negative inflation surprise. So I Want you to pay attention to Medical Services Transportation Services: Car and truck rentals have been plummeting. for example, vehicle insurances, public transportation including airfares.

We actually kind of expect the potential for Price Awards so start coming to Airlines At least this is roughly what we gleaned from the United Airlines report, which is a way of potentially saying hey, look, if you get price Wars At Airlines we can continue to see airfares drop and public transportation makes up about a point. Nine percent weight on CPI reads: recreational Services holding about a 3.1 percent weight. That'll be another important one to watch. Uh, we've got education and communication Services 5.3 percent weight admission to Sporting Goods Miscellaneous personal expenses uh, haircuts, uh apparel services, financial services, tax prep Services These are the sort of services that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report data to us coming up here in 12 days on Valentine's Day and they're going to be very important for what the FED is looking at.

So if you're looking at okay, where do we want to be cautious? Where do we want to potentially pay attention for increasing prices? It's those Services sectors, so maybe pay a little bit more attention to what you're getting from companies that are reporting uh, service style Revenue So maybe pay a little bit more attention to the advertisers which we'll talk about later such as a trade desk or Facebook earnings or Google earnings. Maybe pay attention a little bit more to what we're seeing at those airline services. And are we seeing any of those pressures subside? A lot of companies when it comes to inflation seem to be expecting deflation or or deflation or at least disinflation by the second half of the Year, Giving you, for example, uh, the uh, consideration of even AMD suggesting that their Pipeline and this is a little bit more good style inflation, right? But for AMD at least we expect to see more discounting on the older pipeline of products. that's disinflationary, right helps bring our Goods costs down.

Pulte Homes Discounting homes more. Okay, eventually that feeds through. Pushing real estate prices down, pushes rents down, brings down that housing inflation GM discounting vehicles more great. Maybe that discounted Vehicles which is a durable good will eventually translate to lower prices in car rentals because if cars are cheaper to buy, then they're cheaper to rent out for uh for for transportation purposes, right? important Johnson and Johnson Procter and Gamble higher inflation at the beginning of the year, but expecting lower.

but again, that's more on the product side. so we'll really want to start switching to paying attention to earnings for companies that are providing us services. And is it possible that technology companies could lead deflation in that sort of sector? Are we going to see lower earnings at companies like Adobe and Autodesk or software as a Services Company companies which basically Drive input costs for a lot of service-based companies And could those sort of reductions in price competitiveness lead to disinflation in those areas? Maybe. But is that going to change anything over at Medical Care Services TBD that's going to be a sector that we really want to pay attention to going forward.

so we'll see. But beyond that, the Federal Reserve quite substantially excited about the disinflation that we're starting to see. and Jerome Powell does tell us that he expects to start seeing disinflation, start impacting the services sector soon. That is their base case that even though it's running a little hot right now, they expect to see it come down.

uh, very soon when he doesn't know, so he doesn't want to come across as optimistic or bearish, uh, or pessimistic. should I say about what's going to end up happening with inflation in the services sector? But to be a sector we want to pay attention to and one of the ways that we could do this is again, when we look at earnings reports that come out, you want to see more. Uh, sort of uh Bell tightening in terms of employment. Nobody wants to see people getting unemployed, but the less wage pressures you end up seeing, the less pressures you might end up seeing on Services right? The lower cost that of or the lower expense you have for hiring people who are going to prepare tax returns or the lower cost for dental hygienists all end up meaning the lower prices that companies end up having to charge their customers.

and you can actually create GDP growth without substantial inflation. So we'll see. But what we got from Jerome Power was relatively dovish yesterday and we are seeing a lot of signs of disinflation. However, they create a substantial risk that if for whatever reason we end up seeing Services run hot like those that I mentioned, you could end up having a pretty quick downside in stocks in a pretty quick rally in treasury yields.

So in my opinion, one of the things that you want to be careful of is, uh, as much as I'm invested into the market and as much as I'm excited about the market going green because it's been, it's been. You know, quite a weight for the market to start rallying again. I Think it's important to look at your portfolio and say look, if if you've got margin, maybe maybe start taking a little bit off the table as we get into sort of a rally mode. or maybe you start seeing a little bit of a U-turn in the rally people start selling their alley a little bit or maybe going into CPI on the 14th.

Maybe you start selling just a little bit just to get out a margin and pay off your margin have a little bit of cash on the side. So that way if we start getting any kind of inflationary surprises between which I expect there will be some inflationary surprises this year. Uh, maybe then then you have more Capital available to buy the dip between now and say the middle to end of this year. So some things to consider along with obviously what's going on with China because another thing with China is as much as I believe the inflationary boost that we're going to get from spending in China is going to be somewhere around 1 6 of what we saw in America.

This is solely calculated by the excess savings that are estimated for the Chinese population versus the American population. Following the release of Covet Lockdowns, Suggesting that the Chinese have about one-sixth of the money that we had coming out of Covet lockdowns, you still have the potential for surging Uh, you know, surging demand in China leading to some kind of boost in inflation. AMD for example, talked about how and this is potentially a Counterpoint how they invested about one billion dollars in their supply chains to be prepared for a return to demand. I think a lot of companies are doing that.

so I think the Chinese have less money than Americans On top of that. uh, during the reopening. On top of that, I think you've got companies that are substantially more prepared. This is my scrunch example: Companies are a lot more prepared for inflate basically a surge in demand now to prevent inflation than what we saw in 2021 and 2022.

Nonetheless, Bloomberg still argues that the Chinese reopening is set to provide a welcome boost to Global growth. However, it could also boost inflation as central banks are struggling to get inflation under control, and we could see that pressure on oil and gas prices. we could see that pressure on Commodities This is a very common trade right now is the belief that oil and gas prices are going to rise, that commodity prices are going to rise, and that really, this extra demand is going to fuel. uh, the the items.

uh, In sort of our markets that we can't just create more of, we can't just as easily create more oil as we'd like. and we can't just create as much uh, a copper as we want to be able to sustain some kind of uh reopening in. China again. I Think that reopening is going to have 1.

6. The pressure of the United States reopening and ethics. Supply Chains are substantially in substantially better places than Uh now than where they were them. But you also have to consider that when the United States reopened, we were only sitting at probably somewhere around 200 oil rigs actually operating and drilling.

Uh, at the time, whereas before the pandemic, we were sitting at somewhere between six to seven hundred and now we're sitting back at about 600. So, you've even in the oil markets got substantially more rigs online now than you did during the reopening of the depths of the pandemic, because oil companies were hit so hard and had to take on so much debt to survive especially when oil went negative that they ended up shutting down Rigs and laying off Oil Workers And it's taken a few years to get those folks back and to get rigs back online. In my opinion, that suggests that even with the reopening now, you could see a substantial absorption of Chinese excess demand without seeing substantial boosts in inflation. We'll see.

Like I said, the biggest concern for inflation is going to be in that Services sector. Yes, there's obviously going to be the concern about Commodities price inflation. I'm personally not concerned about that, but I know a lot of Traders are making bets on that. I Think the biggest thing we want to pay attention to is the potential for higher Services inflation.

That could be something that actually derails Jerome Powell's optimism. It's very possible that if Services inflation starts ticking up again, that the next summary of economic projections might end up being a U-turn kind of like what we got from Jerome Powell between November and December in November Jerome Powell was pretty optimistic. Then in December all of a sudden he turned hawkish again and we got the most hawkish summary of economic projections uh, ever. Uh, in in this tightening cycle and that same kind of thing could happen again.

I Don't think that's my base case. I would just call that sort of the edge scenario of uh as as exciting as it is that markets are running and I'm very happy about that and I'm substantially benefiting obviously from from the market rally. and I want to see that continue going on. I I Don't think it's wise to be, um, to think that inflation for sure is over.

Uh, there are still risks on the horizon. Uh, as we saw at the Bank of England raising rates 50 basis points today ECB racing rates 50 basis points Both of them talking about inflation risks being skewed to the upside: there are risks, especially in that Services sector. Now, is it possible that Powell the ECB and the bank of England are, as I've previously said, keeping on that hard mask to make sure that inflation expectations don't not anchor. Absolutely totally possible that Central Bankers are just acting tough in order to pressure inflation down.

Hopefully that's the case, right? and I believe that's the case. that's why and I want to be very clear so there's no confusion. Uh, my like I'm I'm long this Market uh and I'm very happy about that because I do think that inflation will plummet. but I do think there's the potential for some minor, at least upside surprises in in the services sector.

And so it makes sense to have a little bit of dry powder a little bit you know, maybe 15 or something like that available for, uh, potential dip opportunities when we go back into red weeks. Because there always will be Red Weeks again. And it's something to remember is when a rally starts. Is that? yes, enjoy the rally while it goes, But there will always be another red time in the future.

So keep that in mind. But again, my, my longer term thesis is that uh, whether you're all in now or your dollar cost averaging, just stay safe for the potential downside risk. Uh, that will probably end up being temporary as long as you can survive potential short-term drops. To the downside: I think we are on that.

Nike Swoosh recovery and things are going to be substantially more positive than they are going to be negative. Now this is only true though. if you're listening to folks that I think are are trying to have a balanced view of the market. Uh, there are unfortunately some folks that are real big bears who just refuse to believe that it is remotely possible that inflation could go away.

Uh, and that for example, would be somebody like this dude on Twitter named Macro Alph. No, don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to bag on them. Uh, you know I Like his negative points of view because they serve as sort of like a contrarian reminder. He's a big fan of saying the first Innings of a recession always look like a soft Landing that first the labor board could weakens, but not enough to generate substantial job losses.

And it's really only once you get job losses and earnings decline That and inflation drops that you realize Oh my gosh, this recession is terrible. Uh, and then things get really bad. So in other words, you've got this individual saying look, things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better. And this sort of is reiterated by people like Michael Burry who say sell or other people who say look, as soon as the Federal Reserve pivots, things are actually going to collapse even more than uh than they already have I Personally disagree with that assessment very heavily.

The reason I disagree with that assessment very heavily is because the recession that we face today, potentially maybe we don't right? Maybe we don't even go into recession. But the recession we face is one that is induced by the Fed. This is a manufactured recession. It's known as forcing a recession or or at least forcing the market close to a recession or close to recession.

This is what I talked about in January of 2022. I said that if inflation went hot, the FED will force a recession, especially if we get a wage price spiral. Now the good news is Jerome Powell believes the odds of a wage price spiral have actually been diminishing. This is very good because it means that maybe we don't have to get a forced recession.

And that is the key is the Fed does not actually have to continue engineering layoffs. The FED can and will you turn on needing to continue to engineer layoffs and a forced recession. And that's what makes dare I say this time different from prior recessions is that in Prior recessions, you had really structural issues in markets. Let's look for example, at the structural issues of the Great Recession dead people getting housing loans, rampant speculation.

uh for for Real Estate Uh, basically people with terrible credit scores getting these insane adjustable rate mortgages where they were being offered negative interest rates to lower their payment even up front to let them qualify. but then in six months their interest rate would adjust to Nate from negative something you know negative, say one percent to like positive seven percent. And people were signing up for that because housing prices were just going up so fast that people thought oh my gosh, I'll just refinance in six months and I'll just do it again and I'll get rich through real estate. It was kind of the same kind of bubble mechanic and structural problem that you saw in the.com bubble.

What makes really this recession different And again, the four most dangerous words in a recession were really in any kind of Market Or this time is different, so keep that in mind. Okay, like that. that is a risk factor. But what does make this quite different is that as if inflation continues to go away and keep in mind, I've been cautioning that there are parts of inflation that could still pop up, especially in that Services sector we talked about.

So we started this on. As long as inflation continues to go away, the need for the Federal Reserve to create joblessness is gone. the need for the recession is gone. The only real structural problem right now, with the exception of a potential Black Swan that could pop up like a debt crisis or something crazy.

The only major issue we face right now is inflation. That's the structural problem right now. As soon as you take out inflation, what do you have? You have people who have more wealth than they've previously had. You've got very good lending in real estate, You don't have dead people getting loans, You've got highly qualified people getting loans.

higher credit scores than ever before. Yeah, you've got problems in places like the car Market uh, and defaults are starting to kind of return to 2019 levels. But are we seeing the levels of of defaults that we saw in the 2008 recession suggesting massive Financial pain for people? No. Obviously, inflation is A.

You know, people are spending more money at grocery stores. Eggs are more expensive, Hamburgers are still very expensive. Uh, you know, burritos should not be 14. There are issues: prices have gone up, but as long as that increase goes away, it's entirely possible for the FED to maintain this U-turn stance.

And that's why I have the belief that it makes sense to be more long-term bullish, but also protected. And so that way in the event we have some shocks To the downside, you're ready to either survive or potentially by the dip. Remember, you should not be buying the dip if you're not potentially capable of surviving. Uh, So right? Like, don't buy the dip with margin.

So uh, that that's my belief and that's why I Believe. Really, This pivot uh from the FED which would be a pause or reduction in rates is completely different from a prior pivots where the Federal Reserve was kind of like wait a minute. I Mean, if you look at like the Federal Reserve was not driving the prior recessions. If you look back at the 70s, what happened? Well, you left the dollar, you left the Gold standard, and you were just getting off of insane price caps.

So in other words, you had price caps. Uh, from earlier presidential administrations in the late 60s and early 70s, those price caps got removed. Prices skyrocketed up. People like, oh my gosh, everything's getting more expensive.

Yeah, because you remove the price caps and stuff. Now you also left the Gold Standard. Oh my gosh. Inflation's gonna stay here forever.

Expectation of long-term inflation? There's your structural problem. What did you have in the late 80s? A savings and loan crisis? speculative of real estate lending just like you had in 2008? What did you have in the early Uh. 2000s A.com bubble which was driven by Euphoria and massive rampant speculation and profitless tech companies Uh, which you don't want to speculate on? I I Think it's a terrible idea to speculate on profitless companies. So those are some of the structural issues that that you faced.

And so when the Federal Reserve was Raising rate or reducing rates in some of these prior eras, they were actually kind of like, can we avoid a recession? And can we try to stamp out some of the excess of these other, you know, structural issues without creating a recession? That was sort of the prior thesis and this is why you saw rate Cuts lead to further drops in markets. Because the problem of the market was not the Fed, The problem of the market was something else in this recession. The only problem we have is the Fed and inflation, right? The Fed's fighting inflation, so however, you slice it when the inflation problem goes away. Uh, and the FED starts cutting? Uh I Think we probably go back to the trend of the great moderation.

Now, if you don't believe in that, then then don't belong the market right? Then this is just a bear Market rally and we're going right back down. Uh, but that that is one way of looking at things. It's not saying that. I'm definitely right.

But for me, look, I'm taking every opportunity to expand my palette of pricing power style stocks and expand my exposure to stocks that exhibit substantial pricing. Power leads ahead of their competitors. Uh, Massive. Investments for potential? Uh, uh.

You know either. uh. more capabilities in the future? Uh more innovation in the future? Uh, higher margins in the future, right? We are going through sort of a recessionary time. Uh, so you have to look play the long game a little bit.

but I'm a big fan of companies with cash flow, the potential for high margins or present high margin. and uh, Innovation which because I think all those sort of companies massively on sale still even today. So that's sort of my thesis. We'll see.

We'll see though. you know again. Risks China Inflation Services Inflation. That's probably your biggest risk.

Then on the small end of the spectrum, you have the Black Swan scenario which would be a risk of some form of massive debt collapse. Uh, breaking of the bond market because nobody's buying bonds and the FED all of a sudden has to jump in because everybody's parking their money into repos I Don't know. so far, things are orderly. Is there a potential of Big Black Swan Absolutely.

Is it as obvious? like is the downside ahead of us? Now as obvious as the downside was in January of 2022? No, Not at all like we're in almost the opposite scenario of where we were in January of 2022. January of 2022 was hell. Every company was bragging about how they were able to raise prices and people were buying. It was insane.

It was a bubble. Uh and uh. And and it was. It was stimulus-induced one.

And now we're paying the price for a stimulus induced bubble via High inflation and via the FED tightening cycle. And as soon as that inflation is out of the system, the structural problem is gone. Fed can go back to a looser monetary regime. That's my thesis and so that's what I'm making my bets on and again.

I Don't want to be that person that's just going to sit here and be like all right guys. just buy the S P 500 And and don't pay attention to financial markets. I Don't believe that. So I I Like playing financial markets and in painful times I like increasing my allocation to to companies that I think are going to do really well for the next decade.

Uh, whether that's energy chips Tech uh, Pricing, power stuff, Whatever it may be, but that's my personality. You don't have to agree with that so, but either way I Appreciate you for watching so.