So uh Yeah So basically last time we spoke and we already live by the way. So last time we spoke the men who needed no introductions is here. So last time we spoke we went heavy into palantir and a lot of stuff but we didn't really cover Tesla and we said we're gonna do this one and we're going to talk about Tesla Little did I know there's going to be like 57 000 topics to talk about like like we thought Kovit was crazy right? The that Elon's been doing is like oh I said I said in the first 30 seconds. oh demonetized ended restart it no I can't I don't want to do it everybody Super Chat him let's let's count no no don't don't Super Chat My stupidity I I forget you cannot say it in the first edition I literally said it on the 26th second and I was like oh okay that's so funny.

Anyways, so Where Do We Begin like wow what a year for Tesla what a year for Elon and yeah Jesus you've been like in the eye of the storm this whole thing, how are you feeling with that I mean it's I mean I'll be completely honest, it's been. it's been very reminiscent. you know for those that are not familiar maybe with my with my channel and who I am and thank you again for the for having me on. It's always such a great time talking to you.

Seriously somebody? I Really respect? um and I I've watched your videos for so long before you and I got to talk to each other. Started with the damn Bulgarian from a while ago. but um, yeah somebody I've always respected. so this, trust me, this means more than you know.

Uh, for me, the Tesla stuff has been a wild ride that I've I've personally experienced before. So I've been in I've been in the stocks since 2012. I worked at the company from 2017 to 2021 and I got to see so many roller coasters that uh, happen with the stock from uh, it reaching all-time highs over and over again, to being blasted in the media to uh, God knows no end. Uh, to everybody fearing that the company is going bankrupt, to everybody fearing that Elon's losing a mind, to everybody fearing that Elon is jeopardizing the company with the 420 tweets and going public.

Uh, to the model 3 almost bankrupt in the company to Evie never catching on to full self-driving being a scam, so on, and so forth. right to the highest short seller uh, percentage of any stock on the market out of over 40 percent back in the day Richard Hoffman uh, shout out he's one of my Patreon supporters is phenomenal. He's on my community forums quite often, so this latest Saga in the in the last 12 months has been very reminiscent of those times. But where I've where it's different for me is that during those times before I was behind the scenes I was either an investor in Tesla or I was working at the company and I was navigating through this mess and it taught me a lot of skills, one of which is don't like feel comfortable feeling uncomfortable just like be comfortable in the fact I love it, you know? thank you.

Yeah it's like one of those things where moments in your life where you you face all these hardships and then you come out of the other side much more well equipped to you know go through those and where I'm extremely thankful is that now I have a platform on YouTube and Twitter uh because of my uh, where I've arrived with my life and all the Investments I've made in myself and from a financial perspective from a school's perspective where I'm incredibly blessed to have the opportunity to try and be somebody who helps others navigate through that noise and a lot lot of that requires being objective about what's going on which sometimes means uh, not being. Let's say super supportive of some of the actions that somebody like Elon Musk or the company are doing. I'm not saying they're wrong or right I'm just saying hey, this is an opposite view that I have and and helping others in the same respect. Realize that the things that the company or Elon are doing are not necessarily a bad thing, but they're actually a good thing for the long-term success of the company and trying to sift through that noise as best as possible.

So um, yeah, the earlier stream? yeah man, it's been. um, it's been a fun day. I mean it's been a lot of work, but I I'm doing great to be completely honest. I'm doing great.

It's it's the last 12 months have been yet another time period for me to learn a lot of lessons. Um, it reinforced my I feel really proud of myself because when I left the company and I was like yo I'm doing this because I want to carve my own path and I want to go on my own thing to, you know, try to help as many people as possible. Even with Tesla dropping, you know, 70, 60 percent and all this noise around me, I'm still able to do what I want which is like something that people like a very small percentage of the population is able to do and I get to do it Exactly. That's called a job for a reason.

Like people, uh, exactly don't enjoy a job I mean yeah, you know what they say like uh, what's the old saying right? um um, love what you do and not work a day in your life Exactly. That's where I'm at. It's wild. it's weird.

it's I I always say that YouTube and like it's always kind of been like it's the toughest job I ever had. but it's the most fun I've I've been having with actually working ever so and I noticed you've been taking YouTube more seriously lately which is uh I have you've been ramping up stuff I really haven't don't realize how tough it is. It's like it's like 17 jobs in one. You have to be you have to be a camera person.

You have to be hello. You have to be a camera person. You have to be an audio person. You have to be an editor.

You have to be a lighting guy. You have to be a like a background guy Like you have to figure out what best works for for the medium that you're doing. You have to be a writer and a script writer. You have to be a good communicator.

You have to be good at analyzing your success. You have to be good at taking feedback that sometimes you don't like to hear. Uh, you have to understand a little bit of marketing. You know if you really do want to grow the channel it's It's a bunch of Entrepreneurship skill sets into one that if you want to really take it seriously is is takes a lot of time and I I can tell you very honestly and this is where my wife is extremely helpful is that I spend 95 and I shouldn't say this live with my wife maybe listening but I spent 95 of my waking hours thinking about YouTube in some way because I'm trying to figure out how to be the most valuable person possible with the platform that I have.

Forget that, forget the income Source forget the analytics. it's about how can I maximize my value for society and that right now is very addicting to me. and literally I haven't been able to stop thinking about it. and I think it's kind of shown in my on my channel and stuff for the last say three to six months because now I feel like this the latest craziness with Tesla I feel like I can bring positive value to that.

uh, what's going on and and that to me is very addicting because I feel like I'm like oh my God I can bring value. holy that's great. What can I do and then it's just it's from that. The way my brain's wired is like okay, just go crazy obsessed with this thing.

then my wife's like yo chill out like balance like don't burn yourself out. you know, like I don't even know how you do it. You have kids and you do this Channel and you're married and you somehow struck a balance and figuring out how to be a successful YouTuber and bring value to the world and also be a dad. It's like I somebody like you I respect a lot because you've figured out how to do it in in a lot of respects and but you have to take sacrifices like for example uh I love I Love doing the show with the mid the daily cowbell but I've asked to step down and he's going to be doing it with another guy right now with my full blessing.

Uh obviously. but sometimes I just I I told myself the same thing you're saying like I can't do this every single day for the next five years like that I'm gonna burn out I just yeah. so like you have to find places where you you cut cut away some of it to leave some slack for yourself. and so I think betting on yourself is what you did with the channel is always the best idea.

So when I started my my channel like it was for fun and when I went full YouTube I had 12 000 subscribers which is I think even less than you had when you started right. but luckily like okay you can say I had I had a lucky break because I I you know, remember the Bilzerian videos right? Really helped me grow in the beginning. but you know what they say about luck right? It's opportunity versus preparation right? So exactly it's the same thing I had with the balcony videos. So I was like oh my God like everybody's talking about this guy's beard and steroids and the the lavish lifestyle.

Nobody talking about the company being a piece of piece of garbage. It's like like a laundromat pretty much and it's like and then oh I can really show that nobody's talking. that's why it blew up. That's why you're blowing up because at the end of the day the algorithm.

you know what? Mr Beast always says uh, change the word algorithm, take it out and exchange it with the word audience and for sure. what dog do you have? What kind of uh I have two of them, they're going crazy somebody at the front door and what? What grade are you just can I guess what do you have? Well done please I would say you have to have okay, are they big or small? So please give me a hand. a small and medium size. Oh small and medium size by the bark.

Uh, is this a bulldog? No, not even close. No. I don't know. So we have a chihuahua terrier mix.

He's like eight pounds. That's the Barky one. no uh. the the other one barks even more when there's people there.

The other one, but she has a very high pitch. like uh, like bark. She's like a she's like a mutt. She's nine breeds.

We did a DNA she's like collie, freaking pincher. uh that's not a Chihuahua Very smart. She's brilliant. Yeah she's a brilliant dog.

She really is. The more mixture they have, the more the the the they actually test higher like you. they're healthier. Have you seen the IQ test for dogs? No.

I've seen it. Definitely insane. So I'm a dog person, You're a dog person. Uh so I didn't know you you there's IQ testing for dogs.

How the hell would they do it? So this is how they do it. Basically you can only do it once because after that it becomes practice. You go to a fence and there's a long fence and the damn defense. There's like an exit and you stand on one end of the fence, the dog is on the other hand end of the fence and you call him and the dog either tries to go through the fence and get frustrated or he runs around, finds the exit and finds you and like that's how you know and the other way is you put him on the leash, you wrap the leash around the tree and then you call him and you see if if untangles himself and or he just gets worse and worse and worse.

gotcha. All the dogs I owned would have failed these two tests miserably. Bro I can tell you for sure that is so funny. Yeah I would I would have to try that out.

I think I think the Chihuahua food for sure fail it because he's got he's a small dog so there's not a lot of brain in that dog. Unfortunately, there's not a lot, not a lot of room in there. but um, the other one. She she exhibits very very smart behavior and I wouldn't be surprised if she if she scores well on those tests.

But we'll see you know they're both great dogs. They're just so loving to the zoom call. At four it's gonna be in the simple I hope uh 100 right? um I have yeah I'm not I'm not there yet Bring your best dog questions. This is how I find out Cowboys not that done.

The Cowboys gonna keep going with the Mid and then another guy also Russian and it's going to be it's gonna be a banger show I'm going to be rooting for them to succeed and it's doing a great job man. I Really admire how hard he works. Yeah Mid is a Superstar I Love him bro. he's a it's probably like the the one good friend I have that I know no matter how bad I'll behave he'll always thank my friends.

That's amazing and it's really tough to find and I can appreciate it. that's that's uh, that's a final exception for who you are right? Yeah, that's why I give him like half my half on the basically said you can take it because I I absolutely love this guy I hope he makes it. He's great. He had me on his channel and he he asked some of the best questions I've ever heard asked that were very like like poignant to my background.

I was like man you've done your research and you're asking great questions. it just it was a very. It was a very humbling sort of moment because it meant that he actually cared and I that felt great. So I give it a great.

he's a great communicator and yeah, and he's such a cerebral person. I I Enjoy talking to him about the pretty much anything somebody calling my my YouTube wife or husband Nowadays nobody knows Yeah I mean it is legit. I Agree to that. Um, so let's switch gears here because we have limited time.

So basically the way this is going to work I'm going to talk less and less as we go forward. Uh, the next 45 minutes we're going to talk about Tesla and other stuff. Hopefully and once this interview is over, we're going to switch over to the second half with my Patreon community on Zoom If you're in the Patreon community, go to the home page. the link is there for the zoom and we're going to be able to do an actual Q A because we cannot do a Q A with 500 people in the chat.

So and that's how it's going to work and also a good way for me to pump my patreon so you know it is. If you haven't signed up yet, this is Tom Nash Griff Me money I Always find it hilarious when people are like you're you know when people YouTubers do that I'm like, why are you forcing people to pay for stuff I'm like nobody's forcing I don't care, nobody's forced also. Yeah, so okay, it's changing gears for my grip. I'm Gonna Keep It on the screen just to annoy some people.

Yeah please. So uh okay so let's talk about the the big elephant in the room right now. uh I obviously have my own opinions but I'm more Curious to hear yours. As far as the latest news out of Tesla of course you know what I'm talking about, the price drops.

It's a very divisive topic, so can you shed some light as somebody who was an executive for Tesla multiple years in the organization and I would call you one of the smartest people I know and uh, so can you shed light about the process of how this sort of strategy comes together and what it, what's the end game here and how it's going to play out in your opinion? Sure, that's a really good question. Yeah, The the key thing to keep in mind here is that uh, the price decrease for Tesla implies in my opinion the way I see it multiple things. the first one which I think folks on say called the bear side on the other side where they view this as a negative which say is that Tesla's demand is drying up and thus they have to lower the price to get the same number of sales they would of the Year previous and I think that that's somewhat true I think I think there is a portion where Tesla had to lower prices to ensure that they're able to sell as many or more cars as they were in the past. But we have to, uh, go back to thinking about what was the purpose of Tesla from the very beginning.

What is Tesla's mission statement to advance the Advent of sustainable transport and sustainable energy generation? How do you advance the Advent of sustainable transport? You freaking you just completely overrun the market with as many EVS as humanly possible. And the one thing I would Point folks to is before covid, look at the pricing that Tesla had and look at the pricing they have. Now on some of the models, it's about the same and on some of the models, it's slightly higher. And so if if you take away the last two years of craziness, the way I perceive this is this is Tesla going back to where they were before versus where they were in the last two years where they could, basically, uh, dictate any price they wanted to get a customer which allow them to have ridiculously high margins, sometimes up to 30 to 33 margins.

This is unheard of in the mass-market vehicle segment. So uh, what is my primary takeaway away from this price decrease? What this implies I believe is that Tesla is now at the point where they're comfortable maxing out their production, meaning that they they have all the pieces in place for the factories that they've built to reach the capacity for which they have Labor missionary for. So they've removed the battery constraints To some respects, they remove the material constraints, so on and so forth. If you look at Tesla's earnings deck from Q3 their their Uh advertised capacity is about 2 million units per year run rate meaning that if they had all the materials possible, all the materials necessary to build the car right now, theoretically they could do it at a run rate of 2 million cars per year.

If you look at their Q4 Uh deliveries and production, the Q4 production was 439 000 units. Okay, A a 2 million production run rate is call it roughly half a million units per quarter, right? 500 Q1, 500 Q2 500 Q3 500 Q4 So from to get from 440 to half a million, that's like a 10 12 increase in production year over year. In the past, Tesla has grown the production by over 50 percent, so all they really have to do is grow last quarter's production over time by 10 to 15 percent and they're already reached 2 million cars built per year. In 2022, they built a 1.351 closer to 1.4 million.

So this is still a 50 growth rate year over year. and the the most important part here. and I think a lot of people might be missing on the bear side or people that might think that this price decreases cataclysmic. Uh.

and I just wrapped up a conversation with Corey from Monroe Live on my channel right before I came here and we talked about this: Corey from Monroe Live. He's one of the most knowledgeable people that you can find around the Auto industry. period. Uh, One of the things that people might miss is that if Tesla is able to produce 2 million Cars Plus per year out of its factories, the price decrease is not a direct correlation to the margin drop.

So just because Tesla dropped price is 15 20 percent doesn't imply that does not imply that they've lost that much in margin as well. What it means is that if there are enough customers to buy 2 million cars in that year at 2023, which if you've tracked their inventory levels right now, there's every signal that says there are economies of scale will kick in. Which means that their overall cost will come down dramatically the more cars they ship. Not to mention, the auto market year over year is down eight percent.

What does this mean? What does this imply? Inventory blood add suppliers, inventory glut at other manufacturers, deflation in the supply chain and this is a great thing for Tesla to leverage to get new contracts with suppliers to lower their costs even further. And the other thing that we don't have to make sure we don't miss out is that what's Tesla's true manufacture of their true differentiator between every other manufacturer is their Simplicity of manufacturing and how and how quickly they're willing to move to make production as efficient and as fast as humanly possible which every other Legacy automaker does not have. They're incentivized to do the opposite. They're incentivized to build complexity to try and like.

take out this part and introduce this part to offer all these trim levels. All this does is introduce complexity, which culminates in the fact that even if Tesla were to drop which they did 15 to 20 of their pricing, if you really sit down and run the numbers, their margin goes from 28 to 23. So there's only a 500 basis points drop in margin. But now you're shipping 50 more units which implies a higher net margin.

Uh, dollar net profit dollars versus where you were before, Which if you're any other automaker you're looking at that you're like, okay, so you can still have over 20 margins and shipping 2 million cars? what the hell am I supposed to do, right? So yeah, so that those are my thoughts, what are yours? Ishan I Think you introduced him to my channel and he's always been. Uh, Ishawn's great! He's such a vocal supporter and he's going to be on the Patreon the Zoom call by the way. Yeah, thank you for that. That's a super cool donation.

So what I wanted to show for everybody here is a few things. Number one: let's talk some data points here and I want to get your take on this? Sure. So okay. so the I'm looking at Wikipedia not even going like out of no numbers made up.

No, nothing. Yeah. So looking at Wikipedia right here this is the launch price of the Model Y base. Yeah, 43 200.

which I I'm kind of shocked he didn't launch it at 42 690. I Know why not? Man, that would have been a dummy. Yeah, or for 2069 it would have been. yeah, better.

A Lot of so much wasted opportunities for for me but so sorry. This is Model Y or Model Three Model Y Model Y Model Y base launch price right? So 43 200. So they launched at this price. So obviously we know that the current price level was what? 60? Uh, 66 000 I don't remember what was selling this year before the drop.

Uh, it was 64 000. for all-wheel drive long range? Yeah, yeah, so 60 so 64.. So it's been selling for twenty thousand dollar more than the original launch price, right? So no, no, no. So I'm comparing the all-wheel drive long range.

Uh, which was 64 000. So it would be that sixty thousand one ninety. Yeah, there you go. There's because the real-wheel drive.

they. They haven't been selling it for a really long time. so they kind of got out of that trim. So the most popular trim was the long-range.

The modeling question that everybody is focused on. the one with the twenty thousand dollars. uh sorry. with the 20 discount with a thirteen thousand dollar discount was the base The base comes or just real with real-wheel Drive No, it was an all-wheel drive.

long range. Yeah. So if I send you, let me. Let me send you a link here in the private chat.

Um, here we go. Let's pull up. Let's pull up the discount. Okay, yeah, here we go.

So let me go ahead and share this in private chat. If you can, you can share your screen I can pull it up. Oh perfect. Even better.

so we don't have to do it like this. Perfect. Show me present share screen. Boom.

Okay, walk me through it. Then there you go. So the rear wheel drive Model 3 had a 6.4 drop. But here this is probably the one you're talking about, right? Model Y long range is now 52.99 from 65.99 A 20 drop? That's the time.

Okay, so it came in the long range. Yeah, so that launched at 6200, right? Yep, Okay, so launch price was sixty thousand dollars, Two hundred current price. Six Fifty Three Fifty three and then the A rear wheel drive launched at 42 43, 200 and it's now. it's 44.

that's a Model Three. So the model? there's no such thing anymore, right? They don't make correct? Got it? Okay, so basically so basically we're talking about, uh, a drop from sixty thousand dollars on lunch to about fifty three thousand dollars now just for the EV tax credit. Obviously correct. So okay, so now I want to.

Okay, now understand the numbers. So now I want to pull up this chart and I want people to see it. Thank you for the information That's actually very helpful. My pleasure.

Okay now I want to pull up this chart and I want to I want to show you the principle of what I was talking about. So this is the chart that makes all the sense in the world if you if you look at it basically, uh, every product you sell right, it has a price point of Ideal price. Basically, at this price, you sold the most amount of product for the most amount of profit, right? Because let's say I wrote reduce the price of a Model Y to twenty thousand dollars I'm gonna sell a lot of units, but I'm gonna be losing money. There's like it's below the break-even price.

So this point reflects what would be my break even price for Tesla Model Y and model three. Whatever, right? Uh, this point basically says well, if you sell each car for a hundred thousand dollars, the margin is going to be insane. but you're not going to sell enough cars. So then at the end of the day, you're still going to be basically manufacturing just too little capacity and losing money in every car because unit costs go down the more cars you make right? Ask Toyota where the 10 million cars right? So all my point was is that, um, although I was off on the numbers, but we got from this point in 2019 I think when they launched it I'm not sure what was there.

so the 2019 I think reflects the real equilibrium like Gauss ideal price point which was forty three thousand dollars. We kept going up on this chart because Tesla could make enough of them I know people like Justin from one of my friends who you also know from from Money Talks So he waited for his uh well it was a I think a performance but still he waited for us like for more than eight months so they couldn't make enough of them. They couldn't make enough of them. So they hacked up the prices as you do, everybody does that right.

If there's too much demand and there's too little of goods, that's how we got inflation pretty much right? So the hack everyone's the car went up to almost seventy thousand dollars. If you take everything, consider it's a 70 000 car. Yep now. okay so now what happens, The government says, well look, uh, we will give a 7 500 tax credit but not to you, not to this model which is Tesla's best-selling model except the model 3 probably better than the model three And then and then this says well, you know what? We just have two factories right now that have been one was drowning in bureaucracy, the other one was driving driving in governmental policy about zero covet.

Both of them are kind of unlocked right now and we can really ramp up fast so you know what we can do. We can go back to this price point which we you didn't think we can and we can sell actually more cars at still a great price to us. And uh, you're gonna subsidize a big chunk of it so we can actually even place it here. We'll place it here.

Yeah, and then you guys will place it here at 50, Uh, 53 000 and you guys will take us to 45 which is our ideal price and you'll pay for it. Yeah, and this is exactly what they're doing with this thing. and um, to me, it's kind of obvious it's one-on-one economics. So um, if you look at the launch price that you know the equilibrium point for that, it's a 45 000 vehicle at the best if you have full ramp up.

So that makes it so. and the only reason the Tesla can do it and I think GM won't be able to do it properly and Ford I don't think they're interested because they can't make enough of these cars in any ways, but that's a whole discussion. So if they could theoretically make enough lyrics and and the Mac ease whatever not knocking on these cars, they haven't seen one on the road. I mean the lyric at all? Um, but if they could, they couldn't have done that.

push from like a 13 000 discount because they're operating on a 10 margin gross margin? It's it's the margin is already murders. So with Tesla you're operating on 24 margin gross margin, right? So you have a lot more room to squeeze out the competition like that, and especially if you're getting subsidized. Although so you don't have to take it all the way to this point, you can take it here. And actually, you get to keep your high margins so they don't have to slash the margins and sell it as if it's a forty five thousand dollar car.

I Think it's a it's a brilliant move I'm shocked that this was not discussed properly by anybody else except you on on the tour. Spear and uh I Don't know why. Like, like, do you find it shocking that analysts like missed this? Uh, it's so surface level right? I I Feel like it's it's when when people look at Tesla when they see price decrease I Just what? What it? What goes through my mind is that 80 of any profession is filled with people that don't want to do enough diligence to find out what's actually going on. And it's not an uh knock on the on the on the individual person.

it's just that's that's just how how it works. You know what I'm saying And the thing that has changed even from that time. What are the three things that have changed from that time? The Austin Factory is ramped up, I was ramping up, the Birdland Factory is ramping up. and now we have an EV tax credit that has also kicked in which is going to help lower the overall price of this of this car.

So you put those three things together from 2019. You have mechanisms that are gonna basically ensure that if there was any sort of demand short fall that it doesn't exist because of pricing because Tesla Was hasn't been able to take advantage of the Etev tax credit since 2018.. yeah, because they were caps right. There was exactly yeah.

So now Tesla's all of a suddenly screw them with caps and then with the UAV thing and then now it's so weird dude to screw with them but this time just look at the better, the better of them. Actually, with that they never I don't think anybody thought this would just drop 20 I agree I agree. but it's a sign. that's then that's the signal because I work there I know I know the mentality of of uh of what Tesla's going through Tessa's like you know what? Fu Like you're gonna try to stop us from from advancing the world so to move in a sustainable transport Fu And the reason why they can say that is because they have the scale they have the scale.

to ship 2 million EVS per year plus and they have the scale to get 20 margin capacity. They do. They do. Yeah, just thinking yeah I know they're on Pace I know they're on Pace but I mean it's a tough ramp up because there's a lot of that can happen over the next 12 months I mean or nine months further.

So right because they have this account, all you need is just the pricing. If in Q4 they're already shipping 440 cars in that quarter, you times that by four you're already at 1.76 1.8 million cars per year. You just have to increase. your just have to increase your production by you know, 10 15 but you have Austin and Berlin that basically had no sales last year.

You know what I'm saying. So like this is this is the part of the equation that I think folks are missing is like there's still hundreds of thousands of cars that could be teed up through through Tesla's production to get a to get it. uh, lined up the the on the so the production. the supply portion is there right? Yeah, my portion is there.

What is it? You're forgetting that important In fact GM created at least Yeah of course. Mary Barra Of course Are You Afraid From uh now there's issues with the price drop like this because you know how there's always price depreciation like you want to you don't want to sell first class tickets for like 10 above Coach? You want to Basically, so are you afraid of cannibalization of Model 3 because of how low the why is? now? like if you can get it at no fifty Five thousand fifty Six thousand. Like range lower now too. So like the starting base, Model 3 is now 35 000 bucks.

Thirty Six thousand bucks. I Did it I Did a video yesterday where I compare the eight year ownership cost of the Model 3 right now with the new price decrease in the Ira tax credit and I compared it to a starting base Toyota Camry LE that starting at 29 000 bucks and the Model 3 is 800 cheaper over eight years. In that Toyota Camry a year, no total cheaper. Okay yeah, a 43 000 Tesla with a charging network is cheaper to operate over eight years than a Toyota Camry a 20 000 car.

Okay yeah so so I tell me this assuming that this leads to a spike in demand. So and everybody who was sitting on the fence waiting for DV tax credit to clear up actually goes in and and executes on their on the desires which I'm sure a lot of people were waiting. um what happens next? I mean here's my main concern. so I'm a you know me I'm a huge Bull and I love what Tesla's doing.

Sure, so what happens if uh, obviously in the in the US it's a done deal. But if Tesla wants to kind of bridge non-us markets, that supercharge the network is just it's not on U.S level anywhere else. I Mean if they want to create this Monopoly like they have like for charging in this pretty much right because if you've been to Tesla supercharge station I mean you don't want to go anywhere else obviously because sure you're going. you're going from a you know, from from a Ferrari to a to a horse and carriage.

Uh, but that doesn't exist like that in other parts of the world. like not in Europe It doesn't like doesn't mean like a Tesla has a lot of copics in infrastructure to invest a lot of. There's more factors so they have a like very challenging next couple of years. It's not like they're going to be like this isn't the modus operandi of Elon Musk just to sit and say oh, we'll just make two million cars a year for the next three years and just print money.

He's not going to be doing that. He's going to be trying to rush next. So so and when you try to push like that, you know that basically it comes a lot of risk. So are you? Are you not like, at least there's a risk that they're going too much? No, No.

I'm just saying a lot of copics ahead for this company. I Mean they're sitting on the pile of cash, but you're gonna have to spend a lot over the next five years. Like, at least how many more factors do they have to build Next five years? Probably probably at least six more. In fact, if they want to get to 20 million per year.

So how much that? How much is that in billions? Like what? So it's about 2 billion per Factory to get it up and running before. uh, it starts generating cash. The training cost, the the like, all the everything. everything.

Two billion. It's about two billion. Yeah, so it's about 2 billion per factor. And if it needs six more, that's 12 billion dollars.

Which is roughly they can generate that type of cash flow. and probably uh, in 2023. if if margins, well, they have it, they have the cash. They have the cash.

Well, they do so. But I also want to do a buyback though. that's the thing. Well that that's Gary Black's wet dream.

How long do you think you think? Until we we see that push for Europe to have U.S level of superchargers where it's like a gas station? Well the thing about Europe Yeah. different in Europe people like in Europe it's different. It's It's not like a U.S level. It's like pretty much like a gas station.

It's everywhere. It's so easy. Like what do you think that happens that reality comes I Mean so the thing about Europe is it's still going to be country to Country specific right? because different countries have different levels of Uh EV adoption. So for example, Norway Denmark these and the Scandinavian countries uh, have a very high percentage of their population has adopted EVS already.

Uh, up through this point like I think I I I'm probably misquoting this, but I think Norway of that or Denmark is already more than 50 of new car sales is EVS. Uh, the UK is up to over 20 of new car sales as EVS. But but the one thing in Um in Europe is that the governments there have already invested quite a bit in the overall charging infrastructure. So the supercharger Network might not be might not have this insane differentiator that it does in the US, but it's still the most reliable, most commonly used charging network uh for a specific brand by far, in the in, the in, the in Europe but there are other options you can use.

However, I don't see this as a negative for for Tesla I see this as a positive for Ev adoption and it's for cars that can come in and sell EVS They know that in Europe they're much better outfitted to, uh, take advantage of this supercharger Network So uh, for me, it's I Think it gives Tesla less of a chance to capitalize on the Monopoly they have in the US right? So they can't just say we are the dominating Uh charging infrastructure and you know we're going to have to give it up to whoever else potentially will just become one of the players. Plus you know European regulations are going to force Tesla to play nice. You know it's kind of like the whole iPhone lightning Port debacle where now they have to have a USB port because it's being mandated by the the European legislation right? Something similar with Tesla But the way I view it is that it's Europe is much what much better equipped to absorb EV adoption and that ultimately helps Tesla It helps any company that's able to scale production for a mass Market Affordable Electric Vehicle and the more Chargers you have, the more people will be able to take advantage of it and that's that's great. So and in that respect, it just becomes a question of what are Tesla's long-term profit uh and margin potential as the gas car Fleet switches over to EV when over 97 over 96 percent of the entire world's Fleet is still gas cars and it's three four percent electric, there's still so much so much uh, time to go before we reach say Max EV capacity And up through that point the more charges we have for people to be take advantage of an EV the better and within that respect I think Tesla benefits regardless, but in some countries it's changing I mean Norway you mentioned Norway I think I saw a stat I mean you posted this that where one in every three new cars sold in the UK is electric now I think did you post it somebody else posted it it's 22 of all new cars in the UK are electric.

Yeah, so it's just a lot. Yeah, so you can see uh, you can see the trend actually developing. but this is a good point to to cover because you mentioned like okay so EV adoption and Tam is pretty much in its diapers and I agree. but the I'm assuming you saw the video by Peter Zahan everybody's been tagging me in that video no I stopped listening to them I don't find his analysis useful.

So he he made a video about the Tesla specifically but more on the general side. Pretty much saying that there's not enough raw materials, There's not enough infrastructure, There's not enough. Uh basically to go around to support uh 10 million, 15, 20 million EVS on the roads, on, on the on the grid et cetera. Etc basically shortages of raw materials and he he wasn't like exclusively saying it cannot happen but he was saying it there's I mean there's a lot of infrastructure, raw materials, questions that need to be answered I think it was more talking about um lithium Cobalt all these uh raw materials.

Yeah, but he was talking more about industrial EV adoption because he said in that video I watched the video and and he sent that video that for light Vehicles It's definitely a great solution, but he was basically saying well, how industry will adopt this if we can support the bubble So I mean you're you're a very analytical person I mean beyond the fact Obviously not his biggest fan, but the is is what he's saying completely Preposterous in your opinion. So I The the Way the way I'm hearing that is that based on the capacity of production and refining of raw materials that we have today, that there's not enough for us to support an Eevee future across all respects industrial and say, whatever, commercial, and you know, consumer based. Uh, and he's probably right I mean right now where we stand today, there's going to be I mean everybody's sort of raising this uh, alarm bells that say within three to five years we're gonna hit a giant shortage of materials for EVS if the growth rate is expected to continue because the raw material processing and refining has not kept up with the adoption and the demand of EVS which is going to cause this you know they call it the value of death. You're going to have this sort of like dip that goes in and as the production needs to be ramped up to do that, you're going to have less cars sold which theoretically would increase the supply side which will also increase the demand side of pricing, right? So, But that doesn't mean mean that there can't be Solutions put in place to figure out how to move forward just like we have in the past.

I mean how many? How many times have we reached a local maximum for some sort of Supply I don't know when we were freaking Mass producing CDs You know, did we have enough materials at that point to make enough? CDs Of course not. but did did an entire industry come up to try and support that growth? Of course. And if you follow people like Jordan Gesigi from the limiting factor, he does a ton of deep Dives on battery supply specifically and how there's going to be a giant shortage. But there are ways there are ways to alleviate the shortage through ramping up refining and ramping up ramping up the mining of these raw materials.

So uh, recycling is another huge one as well as new uh, chemistries and new materials as well to be used in a lot of these batteries. So I largely see those data points as yes, yeah, that's like I I saw him. he's he sounds super smart, he's brilliant. Yeah, he he found it.

He kind of joined with uh Elon when they first joined Tesla back in 2006 and they bought the bought the paperwork from those uh other two guys. um so they're pretty close Elon and JB for sure he started uh, they don't like Elon they don't like killing bro Oh Mark Martin Tarponing and those guys, yeah you know, hasn't said nice things about him I did you see the documentary when they were talking about him? I I saw clips of it. yeah they're like you know he's sort of this idiot or whatever I don't remember. no no look, they can't talk too much because uh I mean I'm assuming they're still there shareholders and DA's lawyers.

Uh, they have a vested interest in the company. but sure I mean that's kind of. do you think that in um, you know how they did five years ago they did the movie about the McDonald's Brothers called the Founder about the Croc like they're thinking 50 years people gonna make like the founder for Elon Musk and Tesla the whole story with these two of course of course. Elon Musk oh my God What a question.

Uh, it has to be somebody who's very good at acting awkward in front of people because Elon is a very awkward person. um I would I would cast Pedro Pascal Oh that's a great pick. That's a great thing. It could be a great healing bro.

He's such a good actor. Yeah I love them as the uh in Game of Thrones he was uh the the market yeah that was he's he was great in that role. He's such a good actor. Pena from uh from Narcos that's good too.

Yeah, and that's good too. Yeah, that's a good question. Oh he was just on the I just watched a movie with him. the last of us.

that's a whole different top that's a video on its own. How inside? Um yeah. I was like I'm gonna binge watch this and then I forgot HBO No spoilers, we haven't watched it yet. Okay, okay yeah well okay let's talk about in a second.

So he just did a movie with Nicholas Cage called the The Unbearable Burden of Insane Talent or something like that I don't know remember the title, but basically like Nicholas Cage is playing himself and he's like a failing actor. no money and it's awesome. and uh, he's like he's taking every possible role offers like doing like supporting like in some. and basically he runs out of money and then the Pedro Pascal he's a billionaire and it's like come to my birthday I'll give you a million dollars and then he luckily agrees.

Wow and they they get stoned out of their mind and just go over like absolutely on this. Rampage that's amazing. That's amazing. Yeah yeah but anyways, but what do you mean no spoilers? Have you not seen the game I know I haven't beat the game yet.

No wait no I just heard amazing things about I Know, trust me it's been out for like a thousand years it's been I was from PlayStation 3. Yeah so what's funny is my so my wife plays video games and she's been playing it and I'll sometimes watch her play it but then uh just it we've she stopped and then I kind of lost interest and I haven't had. You know a lot of time to play video games and it's like but but I love video games. It's not a video game, but it's like a story, right? It's like a story.

it's a it's an incredible story. I I think it's the best video game ever created, but it's It's more of an interactive story you get to. Just yeah. yeah.

I've heard people call it that. yeah. but anyway, the supply. There's no problem in the supply.

Yeah, there's no problem with Supply Okay, you will come when we do. Part two on your Channel yeah. Watch it. Watch episode one by then and I guarantee you're gonna cry.

Okay, all right and if you're gonna cry I'll give you a hundred bucks if you didn't cry I'll give you 100 bro on there okay honor System Yes of course it's like uh, it's like the time for bed when they promise not to not to remember in the yeah yeah George lied and then the plane was crashing at the final episode and it's like I cheated on them and they're like you lost regardless of how dire the consequences are. That's hilarious. Yeah yeah man, no, he cheated and he still lost. So moving on from uh from that um yeah, HBO did not screw it up I'm gonna say good, it's it's no, no, no problem at all.

Although this this, uh, it has an expiration date because part two Last of Us Part Two was complete hot garbage. the game. Uh, and assuming they'll adapt it, it's going to be just as bad. Oh bummer.

Okay, but the the first season is going to be absolutely insane. Um, Anyways, moving on back to the topic at hand. We have about 15 minutes left so let's keep it going. So if you had to bet on anybody else besides Tesla who's your number two in the EV industry in the next 10 years? I think Byd is probably best positioned.

Yes, I Agree with that. I Think Byd is probably the best decisions. Yeah, and the reason why is because number one, they have government backing. Uh, number two for now.

Yeah, but um, they have the scale to ship a lot of EVS They have a competitive product within its Marketplace Uh, that's performing really well in the Bydcl and the other models as well. They have the experience. Um, and they haven't entered any other Market except the Chinese market. Really in Earnest right? Well, they do sell around the world.

They have sales out of China but no, they're not significant. Are they not significant? No, they're selling in a few markets. But I Agree with you, they're fully integrated, vertically integrated. Battery Technology They have in-house they've been making cars for a long time that They have the know-how The only problem is they're in China That's the one thing you probably you would agree with.

Peter Zahan that's the one country hit this. It's a problem to have a company in. Um, yeah, you never know, you never. The risks are just too insane.

You know what I mean guys. When I spoke with Corey earlier today from Monroe um, he thinks that the Chinese automakers will probably yeah, they're selling Europe as well. They will probably start making an Earnest push to enter Mark a market like the US and like say the next two to three years like a like start to make a push and maybe reach scale by the say, the end of the decade which in my opinion bodes really badly for every single Legacy automaker because all the Legacy automakers are saddled with Incredible amounts of debt and bureaucracy and they don't have the culture of innovation that you know forget Byd, but companies like like a Tesla have that is going to require them to completely redo the way they have done business forever and to in that this in the same token in the case of German and U.S Automakers Really, really, mostly all automakers they have to deal with the Union They have to deal with a union Workforce that is going to be up in arms when they realize that manufacturing and EV requires less than half of the human labor as a gas car. Good luck.

So what does that mean? Your your system is inherently outfitted to building redundancy when building vehicles, and you're not going to be able to do that profitably at scale, especially in the In in the lower markets, which is what I predict will happen. And here's here's my prediction and we can come back to this in like eight years or seven years. My prediction is that every single Legacy automaker, if they Do survive, is going to be a niche automaker. They're going to ship no more than half a million cars per year and they're going to go from say uh, like a Volkswagen is is doing uh, you know your Volkswagen brand and your Porsche brand and Etc eight million, nine million cars per year I Don't think they're going to be at those levels I think in eight years time, they're going to be shipping maybe 2 million units per year, scaling down to half a million over time.

Companies like Ford and GM If they want to survive, they're going to have to do the same thing because it's not it's it's I Don't think it's going to be possible for those types of companies to mass Market Mass manufacture EVS at an affordable level for the mass market. and as your cost per mile goes down with an EV that means you're not just going to be selling 100 million cars per year. You're going to be selling 200 million cars per year. 250 million cars per year as a total Global Fleet And um, the companies that are best capable of shipping those Mass Market vehicles in the market like your Teslas and probably your Byd fees and probably any new entrants in the field.

Those are the companies are going to be able to do that, while the rest of them are going to have to get rid of hundreds of billions of dollars of assets and liabilities to be able to get to that point. And that's going to require going through all kinds of restructuring. And you know, forget bankruptcy. So I just I Don't see how the math lines up for these guys and this is no disrespect to people working there.

I Just it's just math. It's just math. So um, how little success they had at putting out just cars that don't explode, don't catch fire at scale at a reasonable price? Like can you have a stat that like drives this home Like let me give you this that. the mod the Ford Marquee the Ford Mach 3 launched around the same time as the Model Y.

It launched about six months later, the Model Y right now in the years on Twitter yeah exactly, sold over 300 000 units at least and the Maki only 28 000. And they started at the same exact time. They're in the same exact category and they're selling at basically the same price is now the model Y is cheaper and in the model Y has a supercharger. Network And you're telling me the Legacy automakers know how the only people would want to buy that car again.

It's a great car too. It's a nice car I've never seen it in person if I'm if I'm look there's I Don't believe there's loyalty in the Auto industry. like except Tesla because Tesla created at least in part is called brand Around them like Apple does with iPhones So I don't know any like obviously there's F-150 people they're Chevy people I get it. But like yeah, Tesla's created this called around the brand which I feel is at least worth half a million units a year.

That's just starting out without even saying oh yeah, everything above it isn't It's zero loyalty. it's just utilitarian purchases. So I'm looking at this as a utilitarian purchase with no brand loyalty and I'm saying okay, so what are my considerations if I've already decided to buy a vehicle? Okay, gas prices going up, inflation going up I don't care about pollution, blah blah I'm just playing like the regular American right? 80 of the people Yeah Yeah So basically like okay, if I buy this electric vehicle, my gas prices gas expenditures will go dramatically down like insanely down. Okay and now I can pretty much charge it at any gas station level of stuff and have a cup of coffee 10 minutes, get out the door and I can try it at home.

It doesn't have anything that breaks down. it doesn't have an alternator, it doesn't have an engine, it doesn't have a gearbox that breaks down, It doesn't have a like there's nothing that breaks in it. it's battery brakes and wheels in the box. So yes, it's definitely.

we saw that. what happened: 250 foot cliff, four people drop, Nobody gets even seriously hurt so it's safer. You've seen the Euro NCAP results for Tesla they're the best in the category easily, so it's safer, it's cheaper, it drives faster if you like that sort of thing. And the only thing I would say that prevents a prevents Tesla from hitting it big right now is two things.

Well, three things. Okay, and you would agree with me here. And by the way, I Want to give a shout out to one of my haters I like to highlight some of my haters Bob is one of my haters and he's still here and I appreciate you Bob So he's been calling me names, but he's actually in his very disrespectful way which is obviously always welcome here. He's actually raising a good point Tesla has a key man risk in my opinion, which we can talk about later on.

but uh, thank you for that point. Bob Although I think you could have made it a little bit more elegant way. but yes, thank you. He says when Elon Musk dies he doesn't know Elon is an alien geez also so anyways so thank you Bob We appreciate even the haters here in the chat.

So all the boxes are checked for for uh for an electric vehicle and I'm saying okay, which electric vehicle right and then I'm saying okay, there's one with supercharger Network There's one with the best software as far as uh, driver assist systems, as far as navigation to superchargers, as far as basically maintenance upgrades uh, the surveillance, the auto security, the Sentry mode, whatever whatnot, uh, games for kids in the car or whatever so software is the best, charging is the best, etc etc. and it's proven like as far as look, there's so much documentation on Teslas I Have a friend who got locked out out of I'm not saying gonna say which but a Chinese vehicle EV Chinese EV he got locked out, he was in a charging stations a station sorry and his charger just would not release no matter what it done then and he couldn't find anything online. there's nobody to call, there's no like customer support which you can call like in America so there's nobody like he was like. so we I was on him with the phone.

he's like dude, there's nothing about this on the internet. there's nobody to talk to, no forums, no customer support and then we figured it might be just you have to get away from the car. just go far. Maybe you just just get away from the car to reset the so and he got away with the with the key fob.

It won't like 10 minutes. came back and it released. Yeah. I mean glitch.

It happened in every software, right? But I mean if in the Tesla there's such a ecosystem that you can get a solution right now? Sure, yes, maintenance and body work and customer support can use help if they're not perfect obviously. But I mean that's way better than buying like a Chinese brand because you don't know anything about it. Um so I'm saying like it's very hard for me to see who's going to be buying anything else but a Tesla in the US Unless like this, they're like super like filled with with hate towards the brand which is okay as well. Yeah, I get it.

some people won't buy a Chevy or a Ford and that's fine. But I'm saying the one thing Tesla Miss it's this three. it's the Trinity of the Sacred Trinity They need a truck ASAP which is a huge money on the table being left every single year. They have to have it on the market as soon as possible.

And number two, they need a seven seater. A proper seven seater. The model Y is not a good seven seater. I'm sorry.

it's a good five-seater with plenty of storage. It's a seven seater. It's not good enough for a family. For kids, it's not your work.

And the third thing they need, they need an entry-level vehicle they need that you mentioned earlier the Toyota Corolla that's the gold standard. They need to knock it off that pedestal that's been on for the past 40 years. And once they hit those three points. everything I said in the beginning plus those three points: Tesla is going to go absolutely berserk and the same idiots who are standing well wait for it to drop for 80, 70, 60, 50.

they're going to be pouring in, following at 200, 300, 400 and basically the same people who weather the storm instead in the stock are going to be saying it's like no surprise here I mean we just stayed in because of the technology. It's the one thing I think you would agree with Warren I Know you have a lot of disagreements with Warren but you and Warren are actually a lot more like than you would think because he only looks at the technology. He never once. we never once talked about the share price on the stream right? exactly and all like why can tell who is a real like Tesla um, expert If I don't hear anything about the share price because you guys don't care, you have, you're interested.

Inconsequential. To me, it doesn't matter, it's it's about like product differentiation right? So the the the three things you mentioned are are uh, great callouts and I couldn't agree more with you that that those are extremely important for Tesla's long-term success. So we know that pickup trucks coming right with the Cyber truck. hopefully it's this year.

Uh, all signs point to that being the case. and I think it once that launches, not if when that launches it's it's a Surefire success because that is a freaking billboard on Wheels It's going to have you ever seen the Cyber truck in person over the Surefire successes? the Chevy voltage sorry for sure Surefire success in person uh I haven't but uh yeah everybody like who's a classic truck guy I showed him to him. the initial response was like nah and then I showed them the clip with Jay Leno and they're like oh wait until you see that person when you know I showed them the the thing and they're like oh this is yeah because the initial reaction of a classic truck guy like they can stomach a Vivian they can't stomach something like that but the we just didn't have enough of them actually like being on the road. I think yeah yeah once this thing I'm telling you man, once this thing's on the road, it's going to send, it's underrated.

How big of an impact this is gonna have? Of course I'm a Tesla Fanboy crazy person. whatever you want to call me. but I'm telling you guys, once you see the single person, your mind will change. That's one the compact, uh thank you.

uh, telecules the compact car windows and the works. so uh uh, hopefully in the next year or two that will be launched and the middle one which is the really good one that you brought up is that like large capacity vehicle I Couldn't agree more with you and uh my God tells me it's in the works as well, but uh, we have to wait for it to see if it's actually launched. But I don't see why because they would have the platform in the pickup truck instead of making the pickup truck just make it into a high capacity vehicle and go from there. So the the drivetrain and the chassis there, you just got to put the right body on there.

Yeah! I think that the one thing you could Olivia thank you Oliver sorry Oliver Queen thank you for the 20 donation. We really appreciate it. Uh, I think you sent it twice by accident or at least on my mind it appears twice, but it might be a mistake. Yeah, on my end it shows twice.

but I'm assuming it happened once. Uh, the one thing about the Cyber truck is no matter whether you like it or you hate it because you always have like people saying oh, it's like super ugly uh like this guy for example, living example, nobody stays indifferent to it. Nobody says uh meh, it's either you love it or or you hate it. And uh, to me, it's not about if the cybercrack is amazing or not or beautiful or not.

The problem is that you know what they say. you want to win the lottery. You got to buy the ticket. So the ugliness of the truck is irrelevant.

You got to be in the game. My guy. That's the number one category in North America Trucks F-150 is a is a generational brand making car. You have to be able to compete in that category in America because it's that's the category to be in and you're not in it.

So at least like that's the one thing I'm I'm super super pumped about to see the the Cyber truck on. yeah yeah, it's going to send shockwise man. and I'm and I'm willing to bet. and the person I really respect their opinion is fiction.

Okay, yeah, listen, you're more than willing to. You know you're more than welcome to have your wrong opinion. Just kidding, you're more than welcome to have your opinion. It's just.

um, it's I Think it will surprise a lot of that's all I'm gonna say about the Cyber truck. I think I've seen it in person. I Know the production is going in and I know it's going to get delivered um, at some point hopefully this year. but I I I Have full confidence that it's going to be by far Tesla's most successful uh ever.

You before you go and we go to the Zoom by the way, we're switching to the zoom in a minute and if you want to watch the zoom, it's here. Griff Griff me, Griff me and so before we move on to the zoom. uh I Want my first reaction when I saw this car. It's like this reminds me of the of the DeLorean for some reason because it's the same material.

it's It's stainless steel right? I've never seen a car like this before. After the DeLorean and I'm a huge back to the like. Back to the Future is my main movie like my all-time favorite movie. So I've seen it I Just seen it with my kids for the first time and they're my my kid I Just ordered them from Halloween costumes.

The costume of Martin McFly bro from office is that he wants to dress up I was like yes um so it's like uh so he's like no but the costume comes with the car I said no, it's like it's a twenty thousand dollars on eBay and it's a piece of I'm not buying that. it's a garbage. That's hilarious. but I'll tell them I'll build your cardboard one I said yeah, Good enough.

Good enough. Yeah, you'll get I Mean you have to shape? you know, just angle angles cardboard. The crazy thing about the DeLorean by the way, the car was already dead. the the company was dead when they made the movie and uh, he actually saw the movie and he wrote them a letter.

He was already remember that I had the with the drug charges and like he was like and he wrote them a letter and he's basically said hey thank you like he absolutely was blown away. Yeah but there's a you know, the guy who played Biff in the movie his name is Tom Wilson So he has the song like this comical song. uh and he sings in the song uh all the questions that people ask him do you want to hear it before we go? Sure, Why Not sure you've seen the