Dan Ives, Wedbush senior analyst will join me to discuss the future of Tesla. Dan removed Tesla stock from his “best ideas” list and cut his price target to $250 from $300. He still rates the shares at Buy.
Okay, going live We are live. Welcome everybody to the much anticipated much requested then ice interview. We're finally here. We have done eyes for a whole 40 minutes and Counting uh and I'm gonna mute myself on the other screen then. ever since we scheduled this interview, it has increasingly become more and more relevant as the days went by. Uh, somehow I managed to uh, land as backwards into the most relevant topic with you right at the perfect time. So thank you for coming on. I Appreciate it. It's great to be here. Tom Some of you may know this, some of you may not. Then there's a Penn State fan and I'm a Michigan fan, but we have no University and we're here. Uh, on the unfriendly terms, there's no right I'm actually doing it to support Tom I appreciate it a lot means a lot. Uh, so then first of all, how are you doing good good? No, it's great to be here. It's been, um, look, it's been a crazy week I think for all of us that are Tessa supporters and and obviously we can dig into it I think it's been. You know it's It's frustrating in some ways, but I feel like we're starting to get the message through like in other words like I feel like I wanted to really go out there and explain how most institutional investors view it now. a lot of times like retail investors that are so knowledgeable, they'll be like no, you're you're, you're you. You're missing a broader picture. What could happen between Twitter and Tessa over the long? I Don't disagree with that. My issue: I think many others is like dude, they're done in other words like the frustration. the overhang on Tesla has gotten to a point where frustrations boiled up and it's it's become a legit overhang in the stock and I think it was It was starting to put it was trying to put that out more in the open because obviously it's a big, it's a it's it's A it's a contained situation now, but if it continues then it becomes more of a concern. Do you feel like there's more kind of people are firing in the same camp at each other now? more because of that because I've seen like Twitter beef between Gary black and Warren Ridley who like two some of the two most famous Tesla balls like I feel like there's it causing a lot of tensions even within the community I mean time I've been the biggest Elon supporter in test for the last decade. I mean there's no one that loves Tessa more believes in the vision more I in my opinion is the most disruptive technology stock in the world. you know over the next five to ten years and I think that's why sometimes you get so emotional about it and and because it's frustrating and what I talk about in terms like brand deterioration potential is that you know musk is is viewed so at another level of any other innovator in the world and the problem is when he starts to come down into the Twitter ecosystem going back and forth this you know, controversial treat after tweet. Look, he's not no longer a a user, he owns a platform. So my whole point is okay. the selling the stock. We get it right. It's been well talked about. In terms of that frustration, it's still a small amount I think the bigger word is like hey, what social media experts and like your whole network focus on Twitter Focus back on Tessa I'm not saying he can't balance, he's bound SpaceX and and has that for many years. The problem here is that it's hit a boiling point where especially coming out of like a very look a very good 3Q relative to what's happened in the industry, but still miss the delivery number. How to lower it? You're starting to see a little Bloom come off the roads. In terms of institutional investors, you don't need another stumble and then the perception is if there's another stumble. ah, because of Twitter, it's because of the attack. You see him that I'm That's part of the problem here. Yeah yeah. I I Use this example of you and I we come from the same era. Uh, although people always give me like a 25 I don't know why I'm 42 years old, so we're We're pretty much from the same era. You remember how uh, Allen Iverson came into the NBA and he was absolutely going nuts. but because he was such a talented player, he used to get away with everything until he wasn't good enough on the court and just caught up with him. So I feel like remember the whole like why practice practice Yeah, we're talking about practice you know that whole complete So when he imploded like on that press conference, everything started to go downhill. So I'm saying like with Tesla with Elon being held at such high regard, they had more room to screw up than they do now because with everything that's going on right now with Twitter it leaves very little room for Tesla not to over deliver, over execute, and over perform the minute they hit. A little hiccup? Uh, this whole Shenanigans with Twitter starts to basically take toll on on Tesla's perception, right? PR issues right? I mean Tesla is probably one of the most complex neat in terms of like it's China foothold with Giga, the political Rubik's Cube that It ultimately navigates in terms of Europe uh so the last thing you want is that this little fire in the house that's me being a fire pit in the back of your house you don't want that little fire to all of a sudden start to get into the house and I think house being Castle that that's why we came out to a strong because of someone that is the biggest supporters had patience. It's almost it's putting a Line in the Sand being like look, we're still huge Believers and nothing's changed in the long-term story. However, there's a yellow flag now that's up there. Being like this needs to. this isn't signing is in. and in terms of I'm not talking about like selling in a stock or the I'm talking about just the whole cross containment or cross-pollination between what has been a train wreck in terms of Twitter as a stock for the last decade and now the Golden Child Tesla You need to draw the lines. Were you surprised about the reaction you got as far as negative reaction when you put out this note because I don't think people realize this but you only reduce your Target price from 300 to 250 which is still like a massive buy. And were you surprised at the backlash from the hardcore villain fans? Sure. I mean look, it's emotion right? I mean they love musk. They're huge Sports just like I am and I think part of it is that, but it's no different than like you love your kid. Do you not discipline your kid when they do so? Or you say something when they do something wrong? There could be you know negatives that come out of that. but I'm just saying like my view is, it's part of The Passion of the Tesla base. I Actually love it because so many I mean I've covered stocks for 20? I'm going to Twin second year. Like so many stocks it's like apathetic right? in terms of like the big the Passion I I get and also look but then there's there's some many. They'll be like you're viewing this over the next six 12 months. You gotta view this over the next three four five years. In terms of like the the X app WeChat 2.0 where he could take this no one ever ever will deny much success and the reason he's rich person in the world. Today my whole issue is as an Institutional Investor and our client. And as you handhold you cannot ignore overhands that are created because they're real. That's I mean that Tom at the end of the day that's the fundamental thing is that is that these are real overhangs and it's trying to basically be like and look we're still buy rated 250 price that we took it off to the reason we took out. Also a Top picks was is like Top Pictures Like could something in the near term significantly outperform if I believe that there's a significant overhead that started to get worse I think that you know that's ultimately that was the trigger there in terms of why we took it off but I don't But in terms of reaction stuff and people take like oh a bull turning Bears it's not bull turn barrier, it's a super bull just being like hey, there's a line in the sand. This needs to end. Otherwise, this is what could happen I Think that the in a sense there's a there's a possibility here where you're gonna be right and he's going to be right. And this is the theory I Want to test with you here? Sure, So you're saying. Listen, this is this. You sleep with dogs. You wake up with fleas right? Twitter is a rat infested swamp? Tesla Is the is it a diamond? Why even bring them in the same house blah blah blah all that stuff. Couldn't agree more. Now here's where I think you guys can both be right about this. What If he stays on for another month and a half two months stops? He cleans house. He's already getting rid of all these rotten rotten apples kicking people out who are disrespectful. He's basically setting in a new culture. So let's say he stays for another month. two months. He creates a new culture He puts in the CEO that he thinks is kind of aligned with his vision and just checks out at that point. Would you still? that's that's too late for you? That no, that's the Goldilocks scenario. Also for you, that's the best case scenario. Best case. So I think I think that that's where he's aiming I don't think he has he has the interest in Daily operating Twitter I Think he's going to get bored out of his mind doing that for more than 60 days, 90 day stops? No. look Tom that would be the Goldilocks scenario. I mean he's gonna, he'll be on the board. He'll he'll have a big focus on. He has others with social media that ultimately navigated but look we saw with the verification plan right? like you knew that thing within 30 seconds of reading and I'm like this thing is a disaster because I could just say I'm Tom Nash and put your picture verified and then how would they know if it's me or you know. So right away anyone that's on Twitter knew that that was not the right thing to just come out with right away and look, do I believe that ultimately over the long term must could turn around Twitter and turn into something special? No. I think of course he could. Yeah, you can't Then anyone that's created EVs and Rockets could do that right? That's my. My issue is in the near term going back to the dog with fleas versus diamonds when they're separate and he's just selling stock to fund that. it's at least it's like arms length. The problem is is that when you start taking like Engineers from Tesla to Twitter you start CR similar to like a SpaceX situation. if you go on SpaceX headquarters and there's tests investors that to me is what I don't love about I like arms length because it's also like there's a negative perception about Twitter And look, just put your put your um yourself in the hands of uh institutional Ambassador in Tesla you intentionally because disruptive technology? What? they're going to do Two million units that could ultimately four or five million units. you know going down next seven eight years FSD disruptive techno you don't own Tesla to somehow be exposed to a Twitter overhang slash Arbitrage situation what you're in this for and that's why as an Institutional Investor that's that's a huge negative and it goes back like if I'm a retail mess I'm like they're just viewing a near-term look perceptions reality. like what do you want me to tell you it's like you could think New Jersey doesn't have the best pizza they do. That's a very subjective statement that come on, there's something actually I will say I'll give Staten Island slash New Jersey best best pizza. and I've eaten some good pizza in Michigan Believe It or Not uh I've eaten some good pizza in Michigan too. I mean there's a few, you know, a few good places in Ann Arbor So check out the Pizza House in Ann Arbor next time. I've been to the Beach House. Huge. It's good. They deliver late. I Love them. They give it like uh, on the Port Norris scale. maybe like a seven one. No, it's the best for me. Blasphemy. Oh man. I'm gonna go I'm gonna go there. That's much better Pizza than Penn State Yeah so Ann Arbor actually has a lot of cool places like NYPD and Ann Arbor's a sick City yeah yeah it's an amazing City so uh going back before we go deep because we go without that route of Ann Arbor Michigan Penn State we get lost in that um so I Had Gary Black here on the show just two weeks ago I Love Gary Also pragmatic guy analytic no, no emotions yeah and I asked Gary the same question about to ask you and I'm going to tell you his answer. so Ask Gary why are institutional investors shying away from Tesla And he said one thing. Tom And one thing only is the key man risk, it's just too much of it with this. I I It's never been an issue because that's the biggest asset is must. But now with Twitter there's a discount to Tesla's stock. That started to be reflected because if you said to me right now Tesla 200 to share like what's musk worth like per share I'd say of any company in in the in the market he as a percent of the stock is it is exorbitantly more than anyone. no CEO founder is anywhere near him the percentage because most CEO have found I mean of course like well then you'd go down to like in the Della a cook you know I mean of course there's yeah there are names that are like hugely associated with stories not even Steve Jobs Back in the day you know Steve Jobs Look, but you start the end today because he left, he left, he came back and nothing happened like uh no but Steve Jobs but but how about this I'll put it up there in the scene we don't No one's sitting there with an iPhone if it's not for Steve In other words like Steve Jobs like when he came back to Apple and obviously covered and saw it like back and like when I go back to like it was six or seven launched the iPhone which Steve Jobs was so associated with the Apple story. Yeah, it's a big reason that Apple is who it is today. just go back to the musk and that's it. But remember Jobs wasn't randomly working on other things. Now musk. Everyone knows musk. Could he's the Jack of all trades, he's the best Bluetooth we've ever seen. Best multitasker that we've ever seen But Even Musk admitted over the last week look it's this has been a lot to handle and I think like my whole point goes back to time like your scenario like let him be involved, have others focus on Twitter he will still be involved I Just don't want to be sitting here with Tessa as one of our favorite favorite memes you know for the last decade and obviously going forward to now. team the story which is the golden unique story that I've seen in the last 30 40 years. Because of this because of ultimately a deal that he couldn't get out of right and ultimately you know, legally speak and he had needed to ultimately own it but he's gonna try to turn around but I just don't want I I I just don't want you know this to to team the broader testoster story. Now in terms of like tasks like fundamentally like on Pace or a very strong Q4 yeah you've seen what's happened in China even Luciano Covid which is positive you know can you start to can you get to growth rate? it's 45 48 for the year you go into two million deliveries into next year. higher margin because of what's happening in terms of production. See what? What makes it more frustrating is like the story The The let's call it like uh, there's almost like three phase to attach the story. First phase Skeptics Haters this they got through came out became a trillion dollar market that happened the the second phase is happening. Now it's about scale. EV is really starting to see broad adoption within us and of course even next level. in terms of China and Europe tests are so well positioned production ramping around the world. of course we have Austin Germany as well. The last thing you want just as this is happening is to have this little kind of Albatross whatever like barking like annoying dog whatever you want to call it like impacting this I Had the similar sentiment from Gary when he was here. he was basically saying guys, this is our biggest position in the future fun I mean we're fans, We're not being like hateful and it's not more than it's not even just fans like I'm I'm the biggest supporter of Tessa that you ever find but also Tom knocking sometimes people like they'll compare as I'm like well this person you know they don't care and their price Target is right I might go up man Like part of how we've gained credibility on Wall Street for the last 22 years is we see it and we say it like we see it. We're not smoke and mirror wearing a rose-colored glasses. So if I see something I'm gonna say it now people, you know they might be like ah, unfollow or the fiend. Let's see this and however they phrase it which go back to this in 18 months. Yeah, this will age well. Dude, the point is I'm the biggest supporter that's theirs but like this is a problem and it needs to be contained. Yeah, I agree I agree with that point. you know just is the evidence of that. We've been on for 20 minutes talking about this. We haven't said a word about Tesla deliveries. no fundamentals, the margins, nothing all we've talked about. So 20 minutes is this. That's proof Tom when I get called for institutional Masters on daily basis I'm talking about this situation ninety percent of the time instead of being like hey, deliveries in China What do you think the month over month could potentially be? What about the some of the logistics? hey, what's happening on some of the Battery Technology A FSD I'm saying like the core parts of the hey, how's Austin Ram do you still feel good about Cyber Truck second half of 23. what do you have in your model? But speaking about that shifting focus a little bit to the more fundamental side of Tesla which I think are you right? It's getting so much overlooked now because of the drama that there's Twitter um, one thing that perception's reality. Yeah. but I personally think he'll turn to it around I Couldn't really see it happening I mean I'm very active on Twitter you are active on Twitter I Can see a different vibe on Twitter than before in this like FTX collapse drama the way it's been covered on Twitter more than anywhere else. That's kind of a post Elon non-moderated environment I covered Twitter as a public com. The biggest problem with Twitter No one disputes how much is on we're all on Twitter Yeah, How do you monetize it? How do you get advertised on it? Yeah. And how do you balance content moderation? Yeah, with advertisers, those are the Rubik's Cubes But if I told you 10 years ago or 15 years ago, you could be making money off of rockets, privatizing NASA and electric cars, you would have been very like anybody. I've been I would have been very skeptical I Mean he figured out a way to monetize that he will find a way he will find a way to turn this around. I Just don't want him to do this at the expect where others that know this do it and even from perception. So Tom we're on the same page. it's just I just don't want this next three to six month period be a constant for no reason. We're already in a you know, softer macro jittery risk assets. Yeah, especially like Tesla is not going to be dry when everybody else will get wet if we are heading into the sessions. I mean that's just a fact. Uh, you have to like accept that. and because they're not selling at twenty five thousand dollars. but I think that numbers those numbers have already been reflected in the stock. They ripped the Band-Aid off. They're not going to hit the 50. you could see the share price for affecting that for sure. Everybody knows that, but that's gonna be at a premium. Yeah, yeah. I agree with that. So that's the part. It's like, does that annoy you you? What you just mentioned right now is my biggest pet pee with the haters because they will say I'll buy it when it catches up with the PE catches up with the normal it will never catch up it will. It will always work premium Ruth Remember this goes back first of all like heaters heaters of Tesla look a lot of it becomes emotional. it it's but but at the end of the day like you're never gonna see the switch and they'll but I just always go back to like so that's gone from 100 million to a trillion. That's like being like negative on Mahomes coming out of the draft being like he's gonna be terrible but you're still trying. that's like Brady in the 2000 draft sixth round being like dude that was I I I'm still not a Believer So the point is like look that's just never gonna happen but you know did you see the Brady resume that he made he was passing out resumes in Ann Arbor for before the draft because he he didn't think he would get dropped. That combined with when he runs his 40 is one of the best. yeah yeah it's terrible. it's a horrible look no but Tom but Tom the point is Tesla is always gonna trade in my opinion as a disruptive technology mean not an auto. Yeah so those uh this is what Toyota trades at this this is what they don't understand. It's so different than like those are the same that say Apple is a hardware company. it should trade it 13 times. PE My view is Apple is the best brand in the world consumer to some of the parts. That's why it's worth. you know three trillion it is. I'm just trying to walk through. um, you know these are ultimately the differences in how you look at names and that's ultimately it's what makes a market. It's funny, you should mention Apple and Tesla in the same discussion because they're the only two companies in history that have been able to successfully Mass sell value over price I've never seen it done in other areas except for these two companies. and then I can also tell you Microsoft does it in in the Enterprise in the Enterprise Yes for sure. So actually that's why I I would view it like Microsoft Apple and Tessa those three but in Enterprise like there's more, the the budgets are bigger. Yeah for consumers like think about it, they'll they'll sell it every year. By the way, my daughter did the hard so it's not so I love that she made me a little hard but I'm just so bad. Yeah, I need to get one but uh, this for a thousand bucks which is essentially the same phone every year. uh, that's you don't sell Hardware No, Hardware costs a thousand dollars per year for the same identical phone and um, but but then it goes back to the whole Apple it's the brand. In other words, if you're in Sydney Paris and New York you walk on the three main streets you see next To the hermit. the Apple Store it's brand right? Yep Tesla the brand for a comment doesn't formally Market it's the brands, the brands everything right and you know you could argue like that's what companies like like a Rivian or trying to create down the road from a brand perspective and you're afraid of the things that might come in from the Twitter side and again now it's not that like it it start it's just more the more on an everyday basis that he's out there, not just the user owning the platform I just view it as it's something where like the Clock Struck 12 for Tesla investing you know for institutional in fact yeah you we gotta like we need church and state separation here. Is there like what does Ila need to do in the next? Obviously that's not gonna happen overnight, but if Ellen wants to actually get to 60 65 institutional ownership in Tesla which is still a long ways away, uh what does he have to do in the next year to get it done? In your opinion, as far as McDonald's I think there's three and there's three things. one you you gotta show the path and we could argue price points to two million units in 2023 because when you start to get toward two million units, the scale of the story starts to change dramatically. So I think that's one and then I'm not saying if it's 2.1 1.9 but I'm just trying generally like in the neighborhood of that that neighborhood two Battery Technology show me Innovations that now are further and further separating Tesla from everyone else and that's going to give them more of a leg on margins and overall of a moat and financial performance in what's now starting to be like a rigidity. the entrance that's two and three like do a buyback mm-hmm because it goes back to the whole like show me that you who we like all all I have to do is like you're selling stock selling stock this I'm defending. you know I'm just walking. Yeah, walk the walk walk to us. yeah dude, don't talk to walk to Walk Yeah and and the other thing that I view is like from an Institutional perspective is like the technology days and The Innovation days are great. Awesome! They're huge parts of the longer term tests of story. I Do think sometimes from like an investor perspective their not phenomenally timed. they they sometimes like they put too much like stuff out there where then like the haters and the shorts be like oh you said you're gonna do this and now it's two years later and we're not that. So also I think like putting timelines on things. um is a negative and there's like you could talk about things but when you start to put timelines on like oh we should have this over next year or over the next 18 months and that that puts artificial timelines which sometimes create overhangs in the store yeah and uh, that sounds very reasonable to me I Think that the absolutely needs more institutional participation to stabilize this stock a little bit because it's that's the next growth stage right? when you go to through stock maturity right? You need more and more stability than that front. But also the things Tom like you're talking about a modern day Albert Einstein Thomas Had to say. So the point is like you know it's very easy from like uh you know sit here from 30 000 feet up feeling you should do that. The guy's building EVS rockets and he just bought Twitter So so the thing is is that like no one will deny that it's just like we're just talking as like you know, similar like Gary's talked about ultimately what I think are keys to lay in the groundwork for the stock to get re-rated and fundamentally to to drive volume in the name. Yeah, because uh, looking at it like if we would have analyzed Tesla strictly as a auto manufacturer, they're already the best one out there because you look at the economies of scale. so they're at one eighth of what Toyota produces a year. one ninth they have better margins at this point. Imagine like what happens next. they have the best brand loyalty in the business as far as I can think of and they have software Advantage They have the best software in the business, best battery Tech in the business and they have the quickest fastest production. Uh so across the board is perfect but also I view it as like it's comparing Peter Luger's to like Five Guys in other words like we're talking premium premium brand software vertical ecosystem and it goes back to like my issue like my view and look even though it's something like they'll they'll hate it whatever. but like my viewers would say like even like names like GM and Ford and I know like as soon as I say that people like do you can't look you start to get more software ecosystem more Battery Technology the multiple on the stock starts to change. That's why we're sitting here GM at 40 bucks so it's just like it's very important in terms of just more and more of that software ecosystem within within the so it obviously will come like the FSD situation that that really needs to be. you know, remedied. um in terms of just you know because that's it's a key part of the story and you gotta work with Regulators to kind of figure that out. Are you surprised at the amount of uh Cloud chasing that's going on in politics like a lot of people are leveraging this FSD for a lot of people have tried and failed. some quite pathetic I'm not going to name any names you don't want to embarrass any people, but people in the chat can understand who I'm talking about. But I mean there's been a lot of attempts to politicize FSD which I feel like is kind of a, um, kind of ridiculous. Why are we? It's almost like mind-boggling to me. So we have been losing the Auto industry game for 30 years, maybe more and for the first time in my lifetime. U.S Company is kicking butt and our own government is fighting against it and trying to help the companies that have lost continuously. Yeah, but I think my view is that that tied slowly changed. I mean I think if I used to look like broader the tax incentives or the IRA in terms of like bringing more and more build out in the U.S I I Think look, the Beltway is always a complex uh ecosystem. Right In Terms like why it turns and why how when but I do believe Tides changing right in terms of bullish. U.S and I think you see it right. You know it's like pole star coming into you. You're gonna have more and more manufacturers to come in the U.S more building within the U.S In terms of EV I talked a lot of battery manufacturers I Think like this is a real see change that's happening and it's going to significantly benefit test. I mean I was down in Austin last week and it's just amazing what the Tesla build out and ecosystem has done to the broader economy. Yeah, Tesla has like Austin is it was a great City before but now it's absolutely it's Silicon Valley 2.0 Yeah yeah yeah it's funny because the people from California moved there to get away from California now they're colorful nice in Austin which is kind of ridiculous but I think Austin just such a and such a habit of where tech companies want to be because of the engineering talents. Yep, uh you know I think location environment I mean it's a tax friendly environment. it's just really it's I think it's a very unique City in terms of uh, the build up there and the financial industry. I Have many many friends in financial industry who moved to Austin from and in my opinion it's probably I mean you could argue me like part. best barbecue or best you know, some of the best food in the world? Yeah I agree. Hey, we have five minutes left then. uh I Want to open it up for for audience questions before I do one last question for me. Uh, obviously you're not only covering Tesla you've been in the stock game for over two decades. Um, obviously we all left our crystal balls at home so we don't know, but everybody keeps asking me I don't know the answer whether this is the bottom when we're headed way upwards or or is it still not at the bottom. and like what do you think the CPI BPI that's all you need to know. cool inflation. It's been the biggest overhang inflation I mean seagulls talked about in others like it starts to now be downhill skiing I mean you could argue it's just gonna. It's just gonna really continue to accelerate Federal continue to raise smaller going into next year. then they take their foot off the paddle. That's been the biggest overhang in stock. that's why in my opinion. Like So we talked about the last six months like you can't time it but we're now starting to get to a point where I think it's a more bullish environment for risk on Tech assets. It's funny, but by the way, put your the audience, put your questions in chat right now I'm going to pull up as money as I can for the next five minutes and we'll have like Dan Rapid Fire Yesterday I was having a zoom call with my private community and my answer I kid you not and the members of my committee can come in. The chat right now was just watch the Fed. That's literally what I said. just the market is all 10-year Yes CPI PPI Watch the Fed. This is where it's at. 10 years if 10 years of three seven. Marcus It's funny. you should mention this because it's literally what I said yesterday. So we're telepathically. Yes, yes First question Rapid fire. Uh Rush Wreck is asking and Tom ask Dan if he thinks Berkshire will invest in Tesla What a great question. That's a great question. I mean look I think it's interesting that Berkshire invested in Semis right for the first time I Think it just shows just how how cheap some of these assets have gotten in. Tech I Think that's important that Berkshire got into Semis I'm gonna turn this out about Tesla you know in terms of uh for them. but I do think when you dance with Berkshire the fact that they are starting to buy Semis is very important in terms of what that says about the broader market for the first time. I Think ever a question from Isha and a friend of the channel here uh, he's from farsats Community sure Emotions: why change the price? No, that's a good question. like and people laugh like I don't get it. What the multiple? Okay, so like when he's like they're supposed to say mathematical Tesla Tesla Stock is based on a multiple. Okay, that multiple is much higher than any auto player that multiple. A big part of that multiple. It's because a mosque. Yep, if there's brand deterioration on Musk then ultimately the multiple comes down. Doesn't change numbers per se, but it's about the multiple and Tommy that's a really important point. I Think sometimes like there's a lot of us that don't recognize the multiple, you pay for tests. A big part of that multiple is must. Yep, mine's down. um Dan what do you think of Rivian? Another great question? Yeah well. Caribbean I mean I'm a I'm a big fan already I mean I Spent a lot of time with RJ in the factory and just uh, you know my view of I'm not saying Riven his next test I'm saying Rivian has I think a unique moot the Amazon relationship significant. they had disaster situation coming out of the IPO In terms of production, they've navigated a lot of that. They're doubling down in Atlanta in terms of that second. Factor I'm a Believer like Rivian is a longer term player in EV. So I'm very positive on Rivian in terms of attacking, especially that sport utility. Uh Trucking Market You can't like some people like oh you can only play Tessa for Ev you like My view is like just how we played cyber security and cloud and like you, you don't you can't just of course tell us our top pick by but you have to play it other component whether it's the supply chain, the batteries, the trucking side. Uh ishan. I'm sorry for saying you from Farsa's community. of course you're part of mine as well I apologize for them. Um does Dan own any palantir shares? No. Okay, good to know. Um, uh. there is a complaint here. People who are buying Rivian aren't being affected by inflation Not sure. understand the sentence no he's saying are you here she is saying basically like it's too exp it's a premium brand, it's too expensive, they're not. Yeah, but look like that comes down to people like if they're buying 50 million dollar apartments in New York like there's a there's a subset of the population and inflation? there's not. But but that's why the important thing with Rivian reservations went from 98 000 to 114 000. Yeah, this quarter, despite what we're seeing, no in terms of Churn, that's an important number. I'll tell you one thing about reviewing my two thoughts. although nobody asked my opinion on this but then has to go in a minute so you'll stick with my opinion. Look, uh, Rivian is a terrific company. Their go to market strategy is brilliant which is a premium product in the category that has no EVS which is and also the best category in the US which is trucks and the US Auto Market is very different than the European One trucks is is where you want to be at. Nobody's dominated yet and Tom also RJ very uh you know CEO very Innovative individual uh I'm just a big fan very Hands-On In a very interesting I think they were a victim of Market insanity and the price spiked. Yeah if you ask him, he wouldn't have wanted the share price to spike like that. But for now for RJ it was like navigating the storm. Him and the team made some changes, did a good job. Their human capital is is as good as Tesla's almost as good. No. I mean I've talked to a lot of people at Rivie. it's very like they're bent even below. it's very very yeah. yeah. I agree Then I know you got to run. you're super busy. Uh, thank you for joining us today. but but just one last I Just want to make one last if you want to stay, you can stay as long as you want I don't know. just one last position. Okay, go ahead. I think two Big Ten teams get in the playoffs. Yeah, that's my view and uh there. I think on one loss team from the game November 26 12 p.m I think get in that ultimately I think Penn State goes Rose Ball So Tom Let's just first of all Penn State has been balling out ever since ever since. you know when I was there in the big house and I told you about Clifford I remember I told you about him I know when everybody was like oh his I still do he looked he's a good quarterback I told you I have a good eye for this I think Tom is um I saw him in the Michigan game I said this guy can actually ball he's a baller. no yeah it just work and Michigan's defense is just and we just and Blake Quorum in my opinion probably wins the Heisman him or shroud. Yeah, it's probably the I told you it's all going to come down the playoff. the Heisman it's all going to come down to the to the Ohio P.m Yep, yeah we're praying for I Hope it snows, it rains. I saw I did see a rain forecast even though it's way far like every Michigan fan is praying for a hurricane, tornado, earthquake snow. Think about that. Ohio State think about that. Ohio State Northwestern I mean bad weather right? Yeah, CJ's travel doesn't like cold weather. he's a California Kid Harrison's just a pure. he's not a human. he's the best wide receiver in college sports. He's one of the best. Survivor Series I think I've seen in the last he has and he's NFL pro bowler playing in the coldest level. Oh he's A. he's a 10-year NFL pro. his dad wasn't that good and his dad was amazing. No, but Harry he's so much bigger than his dad. his bigger is faster is yeah it's insane. Hey we can get into this stuff for a whole hour and look I just want to say damn I Appreciate everyone's feedback I I Understand the emotion and it's all part of like we're all part of a community together. sort of. I Want to give you a compliment here although I Oh here pink is saying love Ives Straight shooter. Thanks guys! Perfect recap and perfect way to finish the interview. Could not agree more. Thank you thank you thank you everybody have a great day. .
Worst that can happen like Google destroyed Yahoo who thought that no competition around . Also lost glory of GM and Ford when Japanese came in 70’s. Tesla and Elon if not careful can end their glory by the Chinese EV companies. Elon being political decisive can lose sales from partisan buyers. Let Tesla products do the talking and keep personal comments private.
Buy buy baby
Musk will not get bored with Twitter even if it kills Tesla’s brand. There is every indication that Musk has narcissistic personality disorder and that is why Musk bought it. It is the ultimate way to draw attention to himself—of course he is too stupid to realize that the more people pay attention to him the more they dislike him—and he will burn down the whole house in pursuit of drawing attention to himself.
Great Cast!
If Berkshire invest in Tesla. That’s when will look really serous & the stock market
Great Tom, unfortunately I missed the call live 👍
His critics focus on Twitter but give no credibility to the impossible success of Spacex.
what an absolute legend !! still cant believe I've had to miss this.
agree with Dan 110% on everything he said including : Elon, Tesla, Twatter, Rivian and mostly the institutional investors point of view on it all.
cant wait for the next one !
Great guest. Great chemistry. Hope he can come back
Same age here🎸🍸
What would be good for Elon to say is semi, cyber and batteries are all on track so the plan is running for the next year.
Next time render in ultra wide (21:9, 18.5:9, etc) for those on smartphones and ultra wide screens, that way we can see more info when your face, etc is covering the screen or both your faces are next to one another
Rivian = boring
Too funny, I grew up eating at Pizza House with my family… of course that was the one in East Lansing, not Ann Arbor 😉 there’s only two!!
Here’s a so-called analyst who blows without air. Instead of doing the work, the numbers, I.e. the fundamentals, he looks at FUD headlines and thinks he on to something.
Imposter…happy he’s revealed his true bent. Where ever the blows….
Tesla
GO BUCKS O H I O
Unfortunate to see Dan Ives' EMOTIONAL reaction to the frustration. Yes, the whole Twitter drama is frustrating for Tesla investors. But does it really change the fundamentals of Tesla's future? Is it going to tangibly affect Tesla sales and revenue? IMO hard to make that case.
This guy sounds like Walt White Jr from breaking bad
Nice to hear Dan via this forum versus main stream media. Conversation is deeper than the "green tidal wave" throw away lines.
I was thinking it would be interesting. Boring can't believe I watched the whole thing. Tom is cool but maybe Don
Put yourself in shoes of an institution mngr, comes yr end your fund underperformed SP500. There is no answer to clients who yell at you for taking it in the rear for Tesla. We individuals can go 2 years sideways, but still I will be pissed for missed opportunities. With other ppl's $, risk mitigation, retain clients > Elon faith.
My only concern is the herd mentality of liberals who now hate Musk because of his free thinking spirit. I respect Musk for his actions!
Elon needs to take the power from the advertisements!
Dude….we're done partying…we just ordered Pizza House😆😆😆
This might be anecdotal but hardcore Tesla retail like me and others on your channel are mad.
Ppl like my mom who aren’t involved know and think the stock is going down because of Twitter but know it’ll go back up. If ppl like my mom can be ok with the dip, so should the hardcore fans
Great interview
Tom quit deleting comments, you are better than that.
Good stuff Tom. Love the content and unexpected Big Ten banter…can’t wait for The Game. Go Bucks!
I’ll keep DCAing into TSLA until the fundamentals change.
I'm sorry, but Dan is absolutely wrong. The best Pizza is in Manhattan and the Bronx.
Pretty awesome you got an interview with Dan! I gotta say Dan's reaction to the whole Twitter thing is quite overblown. Read general sentiment, people talk as if Twitter literally lost all their money because Elon made a bad feature (which he already reversed). Massive over reaction. In 2 months, this will be nothing.
I think we can all admit that there is significant short term effects on the stock price because of Twitter, but to change your 1 year target estimate makes no sense at all to me. If Tesla is delivering what they are supposed to, and they make $30b+ profit next year, how the hell do you have a $250 target price?