Big Catalyst coming this week. you're going to want to track all of these. I'll help you break them down, but let's get started the first one and we've got quite a few to talk about in this video. But the first Big One China Folks President Joe Biden will make the very first in-person meeting with Xi Jinping Tomorrow that happens tomorrow. That's Monday We're hoping to get some insights on the relationship between the United States and Taiwan and Xi Jinping Hey, after that party Congress What's actually going on with Covid Zero? Remember, we're worried on one hand that maybe China will invade Taiwan Although China's always talked about peaceful reunification and we're worried that Covet Zero was just going to continue to drag down manufacturing, we see iPhone sales slowing down because of Covet Zero policies uh, or iPhone delivery slowing down. I Should say the sales are happening, but the deliveries are taking longer which could be delaying some sales as well as people see long wait times. They get discouraged, much like what Tesla had to deal with with the shutting down of the Chinese gigafactory in Shanghai. It's a disaster, so we'll see Covet Zero tweaks. Some refinement has come to Covet Zero over the last few days. Actually, a 20-point refinement plan announced on Friday, but covet cases are actually rising in China Which leads to the concern that what if China tightens up again because Covet cases are rising. Also, What about North Korea Because the North Korean Well, you know leadership has been firing more Rockets this year than in other years prior, especially under the Biden Administration Who hasn't had the best reputation for foreign policy especially after not only Afghanistan but now his potential lack of Uh intervention and actually negotiating a solution for Ukraine or with Ukraine and Russia as well as obviously our Reliance on foreign fossil fuels. After shutting down the Keystone Pipeline, there have been a lot of question marks around Hey Joe Biden What are you doing with foreign policy, right? North Korea is actually one of those. It's not the biggest thing on everyone's radar right now, but it's still a big issue. What's fascinating though about this relationship between China and the United States is China views North Korea as a buffer zone. Think about this, you've got China like right here and then under it you've got North Korea. And what's right under that? the American allied South Korea and Japan. So North Korea is kind of like a nice little buffer for China in a weird way. Kind of like Ukraine was a buffer for Russia and NATO. All right, so that's going to be an interesting conversation so we'll see what kind of notes we get out of this. Do keep in mind their growth is coming in weaker than expected. This is no surprise because of covet Zero. CPI Year over year in China is 2.1 percent weaker than expected. We've got a sharp deceleration in economic activity and next week we'll get some retail sales numbers this week coming up here, including earnings from Alibaba which we'll be talking about earnings in just a moment and we're expecting those to be not so great. In fact, Alibaba is actually removing forecasts and guides and sales reporting numbers for certain large events that are coming up uh, like singles day, which is a big deal for Alibaba. It's somewhat surprising anyway, so we'll take a look at what happens with the meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping that's going to be a big deal then Rishi before we get into earnings, which is really about the last week earnings we got here, I'll talk about which ones are big and sort of my expectations Rishi Sunak of the United Kingdom is expected this: Thursday to announce his attacks, raise and spending cut, Plan to strengthen the fiscal balance sheet of the United Kingdom hopefully leading to a strengthening of the pound of the pound strengthens and the dollar weakens. for example, both of those happen at the same time or currency's funny, they can both happen at the same time. they could weaken relative to each other. Obviously, if the the pound strengthens then the dollar weakens relatively. But anyway, so far, the Dollar's been trending down for all currencies and we can see a further strengthening there in the pound based on how strong Sunax plans are based on what he's saying. I think they're going to be pretty tough. It's going to be the complete opposite of, in my opinion was thinking which was basically hey, let's reward entrepreneurs and let's cut taxes for the rich. Let's make sure entrepreneurs can make money because we need to motivate and encourage our economy. So let's just encourage them to go make more money and then our economy will do better. The market hated that. the market actually seems to be expecting. hey, let's give maybe some support to poor households, but then raise taxes on everyone else So this is going to be a big week. Okay, we've been waiting for this for about a month for this actual budget release, so Thursday will be a big deal. Now we're going to talk earnings. Okay, 91 of S P 500 companies have already reported earnings actually came in uh, positive, two percent year over year, but that was almost entirely thanks to energy. In fact, if you strip out energy out of S P 500 earnings, you know, like oil and gas companies. Okay, if you strip those out earnings for the S P 500, the 91 of companies that have already reported actually fell two percent. Oh, I'm sorry, fell six percent. Let me get that right. So with energy, they grew two percent. Without energy, they fell six percent. Uh, yikes, not so great. Now What is also interesting is that on a normal earnings cycle, 74 of S P 500 companies beat. So if you're ever playing options and you're like oh, are they gonna beat or Miss 74 of the time on average you actually get Beats versus misses. Now that could already be priced into the the variability or the volatility uh, pricing in options models so the market may already be expecting that. But in this last Earnings cycle, all of the 91 percent I reported only 62 percent of companies beat versus the average 74. Something interesting to keep in mind. Now what do we have for earnings? Uh, coming up and what other catalysts do we have? Well remember you've got the big Black Friday coupon code 60 off Lifetime access All of the courses I am putting out so much more value that by the time time we get to the end of the year here, whether you buy now or whenever you buy, if you buy now, you get a cheaper price. But no matter when you buy, you're going to be getting the best possible value and you're going to be getting all of the new releases for all the lectures that are coming out. If you're in the Elite Hustlers Course to make more money, grow your top line and then of course real estate investing in Stock Investing to grow your Investments right? So check out those programs link down below. Okay Earnings. So what do we have Monday We have Tyson This is going to be interesting because meat prices have actually started falling. We saw this in the last CPI report and and we've kind of seen this as a trend now so that could impact Tyson We'll keep an eye on that one that's Monday Also on Monday we have Monday.com This is sort of your team building platform. it'll It'll be really interesting to see if because we've seen so many Tech layoffs if we're seeing fewer users on Monday or if we're starting to see like a substantial decline in user growth like maybe their user growth flat lines or potentially goes negative if they ended up having people who are fired you know, get out off their seats. That's going to be one to pay attention to. Archimoto look I Love the executive staff at Arcimoto. I'm not the most optimistic about how many different directions they're going with products I wish they would just pick one product and just manufacture the damn thing. instead. they're really focused on this idea of like let's make 10 different models and then let's license that IP out and let's let other companies build it I Don't think anybody else is going to build their product I Don't know I'm not that optimistic about it BuzzFeed I I Don't even know why I mentioned that one I Don't think that one is really a catalyst at all. Tuesday weekend. Uh, before uh, Market opens, we're going to be getting a Walmart This is going to be Huge for consumers. Okay, this is a Walmart is huge and even though 91 of companies have already reported, now, we're getting the the ones that are really going to show us about the consumer now. Walmart really tells usually a little bit more about the middle and lower class consumer and I really want to see here. We know they're getting hit. We know they're suffering because of inflation that's at 40 years your highs. but how badly are they getting hit? And are we actually going to potentially see negative sales growth? Uh, you know, quarter over quarter sequentially? that's known as that's going to be a big one to pay attention to. So Walmart's gonna tell us a lot about the consumer if you're an investor in Walmart Obviously you want that number to go up. You want to think that people are going from Target and more expensive companies down to Walmart if you're the Federal Reserve you I Hate to say it, but you want to see people crimped on spending. especially those discretionary departments. Walmart will tell us hey, like our electronic sector is like trash which I kind of expect like TVs video games, computers I Expect that area to be complete. a complete disaster. Uh, as far as you know, food. Obviously, we could expect to see sales up here. but how are we doing in apparel? So far, what we've been seeing in the last earnings cycle is Target and Walmart actually discounting apparel more because inventories were substantially higher Targets inventories were like ridiculously high. Uh, I mean Walmart had a big jump in inventory Do so Inventory Management discounting is that discounting leading to sales are they having to Discount more and if they have to Discount more to get stuff moved? Is it possible inflation is going to move down even more than we actually think? Krispy Kreme Not too sure that one's much of any kind of catalyst Advanced Auto Parts I Do actually think that is one that's worth watching because you actually have a large car community that spends a lot of discretionary money on auto parts at auto stores. And so I Think understanding the consumer a little bit from the perspective of of discretionary car spending is a good uh read into your a lower and middle class consumer somewhat like Walmart although you do get a little bit of upper middle class in there as well I don't see as much upper class consumers uh, actually working on cars you know I Think there you get more of like the show cars and the luxury cars and and they're just not touching those. Uh so again another little indicator there of the lower middle class. I Would not be super optimistic here about a beat, mostly because look if used car prices are going down, your feeling of wanting to invest I Feel like is going to decline in in your your car so we'll see. Remember, they also sell you things like uh you know, police scanners like radar scanners and these sort of discretionary things that you don't really need. But you know when times are good people do spend money on it and these tend to be high margin items for them now. Uh, you know I Do also want to mention that on Tuesday Tuesday before the Bell actually I forgot this one Home Depot This is going to be big I Want to know what Home Depot is seeing regarding the real estate sector? look the last GDP report What did we get? We got residential investment starting to fall now. residential investment can could be a diff a whole lot of different sectors, but Home Depot is going to tell us a lot about that home owner. Ninety percent of the customers at Home Depot are home owners and or their contractors working for homeowners. It's not like for commercial jobs. Uh, so you're really going to get a look into the real estate and housing market with Home Depot that's Tuesday before the bell I Want to see our people starting projects? What are people buying? Are they buying finished materials? Are they buying new material? Like for example, buying studs is is new material right? Like you know, studs? No like two by fours. wood, new materials, new projects, paint, molding. Those are finished materials. If we could see a difference between those categories, we might actually be able to track a trend shift depending on how Home Depot segments. Uh, the information they provide to us. So that's going to be a great look into the consumer. Remember Home Depot was the one that told us they are the ones that told us that when home prices are going up, people view spending on their home as an investment. When home prices are going down. which they are. People view expenses on their home as an expense. But keep in mind, home prices year over year are still positive. It's just over the last six to eight months that they've been crashing. So will the average homeowner realize that I don't know. Let's see before the battle on Wednesday we're going to get Target Lowe's TJ Maxx Okay, so obviously Lowe's same story as Home Depot Uh, we won't rehash that. The discount customer, how many people were going from from Target to let's say TJ Maxx to try to get those deals or or those deals over at TJ Maxx You know, like that 60 off coupon code got to get you a wedge deal. Man, get it in before Black Friday. You know if if you uh, you know, see more people move like for example, lower revenues at Target but more revenues at TJ Maxx That would be a tell of a downshift potentially. But if you see lower revenues at Target and at TJ Maxx that's when you sort of get this inward pressure where people are like, look, we're out of money, we just have to hunker down and try to get through this to some degree. That's kind of what you want. The Federal Reserve to see and feel Is that like everybody's just kind of gotten to the point of hunkering down and and then inflation disappears very quickly. And like we talked about in the last video, we start getting disinflation and disinflation that stays around for a little bit longer, so that'll be fascinating. Uh, to watch after the Bell This is a big one when Wednesday After the Bell we're going to get Nvidia Cisco Sonos Bath and Body Works. This is probably the end of sort of the big wave here, but Nvidia We want to know about that Chinese chip. They introduced a new Chinese chip that could bypass the legally bypass, get authorization to bypass the Biden sanctions and restrictions for chip sales. I Actually think the semiconductor sector is one that's substantially oversold a semiconductor sector. whether it's a video or AMD This is a very high margin business. I Think there are a lot of opportunities here. Remember these companies are not manufacturers. Unlike Taiwan semiconductors. Taiwan Semiconductors, they've got a manufacture. AMD Nvidia These are the brains that are creating this stuff. And I'm not saying people on TMC Tsmc aren't smart. They are. These are like phenomenal companies. I Mean heck have all three of them if you want. But in the actual chip maker section, the uh, the the come up with the chip sector. These guys have gotten their valuations pummeled, but their margins are still really, really high. So sure some of that crazy growth is going away, but there could be some potential value here. and I Don't believe that companies like video or AMD or value traps unlike some other companies like for example I hate to say it, but like an Intel and IBM I see these as a little bit more of a value trap. I Personally also think that Facebook is a value trap, but that's my personal opinion. Now keep in mind, look: I am a licensed financial advisor, but this is this is impersonal Financial Advice or financial perspective right? Uh I You know you're not being charged for this information on this video I I And ultimately you have to decide what's right for your own portfolio. I Happen to just think yes, as a licensed financial advisor that there's an opportunity in companies like these chip makers. Again, that's not personal advice for you. Uh, that's just sort of Broad and personal. Hey, I think there's massive value at these companies. And really I think in the long term these these are not companies that I expect will go to zero. although we've seen crazier things happen. Cisco You know we'll see what happens with Cisco corporations. How much are corporations and institutions spending on infrastructure? I Don't know if it's going to be as optimistic and Sonos that's a pretty expensive discretionary purchase that also relates to the residential investment sector. Oh, I don't know man. I Think that's a place that I'd like to pull back I'm not so happy about that sector, especially when you've got a you know Amazon Alexa pulling back on potentially wanting to can the entire Alexa program because it costs them like four billion dollars a year. It's insane. Thursday Alibaba This is going to be big for the Chinese consumer I Am not optimistic about the Chinese consumer I Love the Chinese but the Chinese are so smart. We know this. they are the first to pull back on spending. They save money. I've talked about this a million times this year. The sound redundant to you, but the point is Alibaba sales not something I would bet on. Now in the last week or so, we've seen a lot of movement on Chinese stocks moving up and a lot of this, in my opinion is just driven by pure opium. Uh, but but I Still think we've got a long way to go before the Chinese sector. actually. Turns see, the Chinese sector has real fundamental problems. We have high inflation because of Covid and too much stimulus. When that inflation goes away, the next decade is going to be great as long as we can get this inflation to just fall down. Go. If we we get to here, just keep all the prices where they are. Now we just stay at zero this economy. Booms for the next 10 years. Uh China On the other hand, I don't know about that. China has a greater risk of falling into a Japan kind of trap like the Lost decade kind of trap. Uh Coles BJ's Macy's a little bit more on the discount consumer right? and we will also after the Bell on Thursday get Palo Alto Networks interesting for cyber security could be a catalyst for cloudflare and crowdstrike and we'll also get William Sonoma This is actually in addition to Ross another lower income consumer one, but William Sonoma will finally tell us a little bit exclusively about that higher income consumer at home or higher income consumers still spending. This is you know your William Sonoma customers like a six-figure earner, right? Your Ross TJ Maxx Macy's Kohl's BJ's like this is more of your your middle of the road 30 to 60 000 a year earner household and we're going to get a lot of data on that lower income household. But again, like I said earlier in the video, we know they're getting screwed by inflation. So the big thing that we want to pay attention to is when's that higher income consumer finally going to roll over I Don't I have no idea what's going to happen with Williams-Sonoma I Know the higher income consumer still has still has stimulus money left over whereas the lower income consumer doesn't keep in mind. We also have California stimulus checks that are coming out to people making up to five hundred thousand dollars, which is insane, So those could help prop up some of the end of Q3 sales figures for some of these companies. But if we actually see William Sonoma report bad, it could be a great thing for inflation because it means finally, the higher income consumer is rolling over. they're the last to roll over. And quite frankly, if inflation Falls without them rolling over, it is possible that the hiring consumer continues to spend, continues to invest in things like solar and end phase and batteries, and William Sonoma stuff and expensive stuff and those companies could actually stay strong. If The Fed pivots pretty dang soon. Uh, you know they don't necessarily have to go down. They could survive now. I Still believe that because of what we're seeing in the real estate market, that anything real estate exposed is probably going to get hit by Q1 Q2 of next year, but if Jerome Powell Cuts rates half a percent by Q2 of next year, it'll get propped right back up and you have a floor under it. Same thing with the housing market. So this is something very important that we're paying attention to with House Hack obviously as well. If you're an accredited investor, make sure to check out Househack.com If you've got questions, feel free to send us an email at IR like Investorrelations Househack.com got questions about those courses Kevin.com Folks thank you so much for watching and we'll see you in the next one.