's going on guys welcome back to the channel. I appreciate you guys tuning in in with me this morning. So there's quite a bit to cover this morning.'ll try to make everything as quick and as fast. And it's fun to follow along with as possible.

So let's get into it so first things first uh inflation. Numbers are higher right cpis come out and across the board. Um things are more expensive from last year to this year month over month yada yada. Obviously you really i mean i'm not going to get into a ramble here those of you watching this you're smarter than the average bunch.

You don't need the government to tell you inflation's here. You don't need news. Articles and outlets to tell you inflation's here. You knew inflation was here you knew.

It was going to go up from the moment. People in power. Said. The word transitory you knew.

It was going to get worse okay. So using that sort of thought process. Going forward. You will be very well off.

Okay. So we know inflation's not we know it's here um. And you should just expect it's gonna get worse okay. Just expect.

It's gonna get worse until. We start doing the opposite of what causes inflation so until the government stops borrowing money and spending money and things of that nature. You should not expect anything else okay. All right moving forward uh into the charts all right so yesterday um.

I had hopped on and discussed with you guys. The was it yesterday yes yesterday so yesterday posted the video talking about the bearish frost that we got the previous day um. Which would have been monday so monday. We get the bearish cross uh tuesday.

We post a video saying we got the bearish cross be short the market watch. The market bearish don't be long biased um. That day yesterday. We start with the pullback midday bounce.

And then a big rollover into the afternoon. Okay so again we got the bearish cross at this point. I you will not be long biased in terms of trading and swing long the market until the blue crosses back over the red minimum another way i can rephrase that for you is if you find yourself executing a long trade on the spy or the nasdaq or the dao okay over the next couple days. Whatever and the blue has not crossed above the red moving average you are currently taking a long position in a downtrend.

So therefore you are counter trend. Bounce reversal trading. Therefore you should sell your long every time you get in and it bounces until the blue crosses. The red because you won't get swing follow through on your lawn.

Until. The blue is over the red. So if you find yourself taking along without the blue being over the red your counter trend bounce long in a downtrend. Don't expect the swing follow through extra bullish push to work because you're in a downtrending motion.

Okay so until we get the blue over the red. We're not gonna be long biased again. So everything's just kind of watching bearish and so on so forth uh as we were mentioning yesterday. So now we're gonna go into more of the technical side levels.

And things you'd pay attention to um. Today so uh. We'll start with um start with a little context here too all right so obviously you see these cool little lines on my chart uh. This is a four hour time frame uh.

What i'm presenting to you guys right now are entirely uh weekly levels from standard deviation and standard error so these two lines they're the same thing. But calculated differently. Because one standard error and one is standard deviation. But at the end of the day they are the same thing that's why it says negative two y w negative 2 y w and they're both green okay but based on how they're calibrated and calculated they give a different price point okay.

Which i find useful both ways so going into this um. When the price of anything and asset is trending down uh every about every week. You can see there's one two three four five trading sessions. Okay so that's a week.

All right so that's one week of trading. Okay and then following week. We get a new calibration on the weekly levels. Okay so if the market is still downtrending so then the following week these will recalibrate lower okay et.

Cetera et cetera all right and the reason i'm saying that is because for right here. When this market jumps up bounces hits. The orange yellow lines here and then finds resistance and goes down. It goes down okay and once that week ends.

The market was trading down. So the system calibrates and says trend is down going into the next week. The orange and yellow lines are now here and here instead of up there once the market bounces off this lower green line. It goes to here finds little resistance breaks out of this line runs to the top orange and finds resistance again okay.

The reason. I'm explaining all that to you is that is how the lower lows are getting created within just this little period. Alone so. Orange red lines are there that's a probability level once they hit finds resistance goes to the green.

The new week starts levels calibrate lower from where they previously were creating a lower resistance than we had the prior week. As per y. You bounce and pretty much go back to the previous high right here. But not quite that's why you get a little bit of a lowered slope line from here to here.

Because the resistance is created from the statistical calculation. As opposed to looking left and picking a top horizontally okay and so continuing on we sell off a little bit and into the following week. The lines calibrate a little lower all right instead of the market popping up it maintains below this line creating a new downward slope. Downward slope.

Etc. Until the market falls apart below this one so that was me just trying to go through and walk you guys through how these statistical probabilities kind of calibrate week over week creating a downtrending motion therefore when the market comes back up to retest that level. It's now lower than the previous week. And if the market in fact finds the resistance there that is what is going to end up creating that downward sloping visualization trend line that you see and or draw across the tops of charts when you're doing your analysis.

Okay so now we're going to move forward since we've taken out this yellow line okay. There's no support okay you might say well what about this support here this price action support that's not support anymore. It was support here. Because remember.

This weekly line calibrated from here down to here. So. When the market got here there was in fact a statistical support. There hold bounce up to the next.

Statistical resistance right then we're maintaining in between statistical support and resistance and then we just broke down. The negative one. Which was being used as a support for about 16 hours now when it breaks down. And you look left there's no green line.

It's just what was a previous bounce spot therefore that is my conclusion that we will see prices below 372. Fall all the way down to 36624 to a degree there's more to it than that but pretty much put it this way this green line is the next downwards target on the spy. So 366 pretty much back to the previous low is going to be the desired destination down. Especially.

If these previous price action levels get taken out so this previous support that was built off the statistical level. If those price action levels are taken out which is easier to do since. There isn't a statistical level. Anymore um.

There could be a six month. One we're not there yet. But um yeah we take out that level. Then you'd probably be looking downwards like 360.

624 and that's just for now since i haven't seen everything yet. I'm actually kind of building this whole analysis with you guys i haven't sat here thought of it and then did it now i'm just doing this all in real time. So. This is my first time actually looking at this like basically this chart for the day um.

And now this would be my first time moving into the lower time frame with you guys. Which is like a five day five minute and we'll get a few more levels. Okay oh. Before we go forward just wanna.

Say um. That this was a breakdown. So it's very well possible you could see like this hold for now bounce back up even retest 370. 920.

And then sell back off like that's another possibility. So. Just know that this was was a breakdown breakdowns like to retest their breakdown level or breakouts like the retest of breakout before going so it's a common thing that you would also see this bounce back up and even test this before going down. So.

If you do see some ridiculous bounce. Today or this holds and does a dumb day and then the following day it bounces up and it retests that level. You should take a short off that level um. And then see if it works pretty much okay uh going into the five day five minute chart.

Now okay one second um. What happened okay so going into this five day five minute chart. Um and if you guys remember the video from yesterday and some of the pictures that i posted on twitter um basically yesterday. I said that this was the market the market was going to or had a range from here to here and we wouldn't have a breakdown or a breakout until we went over this or below this and i can actually bring it up with me because i'm right on my twitter right now so let's do that so this was uh the whole collage.

All said and done of that tweet that i was just talking about all right so as simple. As you can make it so. This was yesterday and this was like yesterday morning. This is about as simple as you can make and i took this picture.

And said over this line to break out below this line to break down. And this is the markets range. And you can see that yellow or the two orange lines l. Lines and then you have the white line in between pointing from the words market range down to the one yw level and up to the orange level.

So right those two white lines in between are there to kind of describe the length of the market's range and then once you exceed that market range. Where you are actually breaking out from or a statistical breakout at least. So um. That was that picture and then let's go back.

And then kind of midday. You can see that the market rallied perfectly to the top one and then rejected um. And i didn't get a picture of what ended up happening by um. By the end of the day.

Let me take that off let me get another picture by what happened by the end of the day. But you can see the market ended up going to the top and then selling down to the bottom staying in that market range and then it actually went from the bottom back to that top this morning quickly staying in that range before cpi numbers decimated everything and then this is where we broke down and then we actually and then this is a six month level that i used to and we just broke that down and that's why you can see we did this little like move here popped up directly to that level and then started going down. It's because there's a six month trend. There so if i zoom in a bit.

You'll probably see that a little better so if i take my own line copy it over this one right there. And i'm not going to cheat and try to get it right about the middle you can see it's right there so right market range cpi market tank on cpi weekly trend break here through six month. Trend. Oversold market in the immediate bounce up back to most recent breakdown.

Which is currently the six month trend. Six month trend traders trying to hold markets or computers below six months around to continue pushing that way right so um as it stands the market just broke down. You're not going to want to be long biased still so you're going to continue watching things bearish. There's something else that i'm going to incorporate into this video.

Just because we've already gone so in depth with a couple things i might as well just keep it going eh so going to bring over this chart you guys haven't seen this one in a while. But i still use this it's actually something i'm kind of reincorporating in first. It was a little like system overload for me um. But now it's gotten a little more comfortable with these things i've been doing lately so uh kind of re incorporating this because there's moments.

Where i'm like you idiot. If you were watching that you would have done much better. But so i'm gonna try to make this simple this is a this is a one day one minute chart okay so this is a one one day one minute chart for the people who've been following me for a long time you already know the deal so in a one day one minute chart uh when the market gets into the negative three uh to negative four zone. That's generally a very good indication that the market is oversold in the immediate so even though we could see this market have a bearish day overall right like think about it like that even though.

The market could have a bearish day overall um. We could still see some hesitation right away as in the market already got to extremely oversold negative three negative four so very well that we're going to bounce here right now before going lower later right because we are over sold in the immediate intraday channel in trend. Okay um. So let me um.

Yeah. Let me do it let me rephrase. That remember. How we were talking about the market selling down to the next green line well it's all the way down there right.

But these lines are right here. So the current one day one minute short term trend is oversold here. Helping prevent the market from immediately immediately falling directly to this level right now like why not use this negative cpi numbers data to just blow this thing all the way down here. If that's what the market wants to do because there's things that prevent that from happening such as a shorter term time frame trend.

That's oversold. The immediate which creates a short term immediate algo pop move so that's why we're not breaking down immediately and going there so it's very common that you can see a. Situation where yes market is supposed to go to 36965. But we have an intraday trend that's preventing that move from happening within the next 10 minutes.

We need to let this intraday trend play out a little more so that as it develops this trend line in these trend lines end up going lower since they're down trending. They'll eventually start to overlap 369. Maybe later in the morning later in the afternoon in which case. The market can roll over and trade.

All the way down within the intraday trend to meet that price. So an example of this would be like yesterday um. And this isn't even a good example anymore. But just trust me.

When i say that yesterday when the market was trading right here on the spy. It was also trading like on the blue and the purple line. So not only was it on its long term resistance trend. It was also on the intraday blue and purple level.

So a lot of resistance there anyways so what i'm saying for you guys. Today is you're going to want to be bearish the market. But we've already sold off quite a bit um. So you might not get immediately or immediate.

Fast moves um to happen. So i'm still. Watching the markets on. Down bearish to the next statistical.

Level at this. Points. 370s pretty much 36965. All the way into the 362's 364's etcetera etcetera.

But probably won't do that immediately today. Given the fact we have um given. The fact that we have gotten oversold in the immediate. So when i go into the five day one minute chart again.

We're gonna run through all this with both the spy uh and the nasdaq here. I'm changing to five day five minutes. Sorry. The video is a little long apologize all right and mark is about to open here so pretty much we're bearish until we get a bullish cross unless the market goes back up over here it doesn't even matter you're pretty much as bearish below.

This 379 targeting. All the way down to 369 366's etc. Watch for short term bounces in the immediate since the market's immediately oversold and uh that's pretty much it for now all right guys have a good one.