Meet kevin here look. I just have to say i am sorry. The market has has been a little red. The last few days.

I did go on vacation again was just in new york city and now i'm in germany uh. But don't worry after germany. I only have a couple more stops and that's paris uh and then and then london. So uh you know we should have an okay month.

But um. If it's bumpy. I just want to apologize in advance and the best thing you can do is take advantage of that 50 off coupon code okay great now let's talk about what's actually going on in the market first thing. We need to talk about is retail capitulation.

Because well first of all a lot of you like the updates on retail capitulation. Because everybody is kind of hoping for everybody else to just quickly dump and sell we want to see the volatility index go from where it is now which is like slightly elevated to like that so that way we know okay great maybe. This is the cathartic flush out where everybody dumps. The dow is down like seven to ten percent of the day.

We have the circuit breakers going off and then that's our signal to buy. But we're not getting that in fact if anything we've got more stocks moving above their 50 day moving average now than we've had previously which is kind of wild because it's like wait wait what like how are we bouncing off the bottom like we haven't hit peak inflation. Yet like we haven't gone through the earnings season. Yet like oh no well uh maybe.

Who knows and i hate this phrase maybe this time is different. But retail ain't capitulating at least not yet in fact let me tell you exactly how many days in the last six months retail. Have been net sellers now remember what that means okay so like if retail buys. Uh i don't know uh 19.

Billion dollars of stocks and they sell four billion dollars of stocks that means they bought 15. Billion dollars of stocks right because this number is positive it means that they were net buyers as a whole retail and so uh. How many days has retail been a neg or a net essentially how many days has that number been negative in the last six months zero literally zero like retail is not interested in capitulating in. Fact the 10.

Day. Moving average is that retail is a selling about 418. Percent of the time. And this is how we're ending up as net buyers.

So really kind of interesting in fact there are a few charts that we could look at as well that'll give us a little bit more color on what retail is up to and i'll tell you i love keeping an eye on what retail is up to. But let's go ahead and pull up some charts here. So let's see what we got so. The first thing.

We have here is the inflows chart and this just shows you since march 22nd. What kind of inflows. We've had into in this case leveraged etfs. Which is sort of an additional data point for us beyond.

What i just talked about and this really shows that we still have this bottom. Here being zero. We almost had a negative day here for leveraged etfs and this this was over here when the spy was actually at its lowest point. We saw the least amount of buying on that leveraged etf usually we get a lot of by the dipping happening.

See like take a look at this dip right here. And this massive move right here into uh into leveraged dts. Same thing over here you see the dip here boom. Massive buying see this big drop right here boom massive moves into the leveraged etfs.

We get a little rally. Here. Here. You actually almost had a little bit of panic is what it looks like you got a little bit of by the dipping right here.

But once we were in that hole people are like oh man oh. No no no we're nervous. So. You almost had some level of capitulation.

There looking at leveraged etfs. This would usually be like your three times nasdaq or whatever right then we've also got a little bit of insight into kind of some of the hot stocks retail is looking at right now faraday futures definitely a stock you're seeing a big move on here and it's there's probably also a reason for this it's probably high short interest which we've been kind of tracking the short interest on these for a while in fact one of the favorites that we used to track was a go ev remember canoe yeah. This company is one that issued a notice in their filings that they have a serious going concern. Which is just a way of prepping you to say that they might go bankrupt.

This is a company. We've been watching for a very long time i was briefly an investor in this company. But i we really doubted their ability to turn their manufacturing around. And this is why we talked about okay.

Yeah. No we're selling this one. Which obviously. I'm very glad i did because it's fallen substantially.

But it recently has popped up from its lows in the twos to over four dollars. Now it's up over 100 percent in just the last five days and so i think what's happening is you're going to find pushes for little short squeezes and right now it seems to be happening in the autos go ev faraday future. So you're seeing a lot of retail activity. There in these.

As little spec. Plays and then of course over here. You've got your retail buying the more to this side. They are the more retail buying is happening.

So if you zoom in here you can see amazon here tesla doordash shopify costco. We did have news by the way. And i don't i don't have that here yet because that news just came out and this this is yesterday's but uh every. I get this sort of chart here.

What retail did the day after right that makes sense. But anyway. Um byd you might actually have uh. Warren buffett.

Potentially selling out of this company. This chinese auto manufacturer a stake that matches. Warren buffett's share size of around 20 percent. Nobody else has that same share size hit the hong kong stock exchange and folks are like oh my gosh buffett is weenie baby paper handing uh yeah kind of wild but anyway a lot of folks have had a lot of uh enthusiasm for uh for that particular company and a lot of folks have been following warren buffett's uh.

You know what people like to say riding warren buffett's coattails. But the stock's down 10 right now on this potential that warren buffett is dumping his shares or has dumped his shares. Anyway okay. So this is a little bit on retail here now this is a pretty cool chart this chart shows you the percentage of companies selling in the s p.

500 above their 50 day moving average. And when you get really low like over here in this 10 to 20 range. It really means that every or the vast majority of companies in the index the s p. 500 are falling and so this is where you get uh real sort of pain points.

And you can kind of see that end of january february. Was relatively painful may and june pretty painful here. We did have that post fed. March meeting that had a really nice.

Two week rally coming after that i remember at the end of march. Saying. This is not sustainable like we've got a lot more pain ahead of us and uh well sure enough. We came off of that we saw a substantial amount of uh selling again and we even saw lower lows in may and june.

But what we've seen now is we're almost at 50 of companies now moving above their 50 day moving average. So you're definitely seeing some sort of rebound. You're seeing that by the dip activity. You're seeing retail still moving strong and some folks are saying hey you know what look at companies like amazon right now in shopify wayfarer etsy.

These companies have all bled out since the beginning of the year. But it almost feels like we're kind of hitting this plateau over here the shelf. And this could be creating an opportunity to finally get back into these in fact. Some of these names are in the m1 finance pie that we've assembled with course members.

And some fundamental analysis that we've been doing which we try to do every day. The markets open in our course. Member live streams make sure to take advantage of that expiring 50 off coupon code the price will be ticking up again you lock in the best price when you check out on these programs and keep in mind. You probably will get your money back and much much much more in the courses is solely based on the fact that when you join the courses.

You get a lowest for pros partnership that gets you discounts on a lot of products at lowe's big fan of lows. Especially in our rental renovations course and of course. If we can help you build wealth by buying wedge deals in real estate or uh. Doing the best that you can do by getting perspective in the stock market getting the education that we can share folks.

I think you're gonna love it and i'm very confident of that so we'll see you there now the next thing that we really need to talk about is what the bond market is telling us about the market because look retail is not capitulating. But maybe they're stupid to not capitulate maybe retails should sell right and remember retail is any individual. An institution would be a company right so retailers any individual why is retail not capitulating well maybe it's because the bond market is telling us. Hey inflation's going to be transitory at least eventually now this seems pretty wild.

But the bond market is now starting to price in real yields into the future real yields are really important to be priced into the future because we have never seen the federal reserve u. Turn and soften without real yields being positive the first chart that's super critical to understand is the five year break. Even chart. This is the market's expectation for inflation and look at where we have fallen to folks.

This is a new low. We are now lower than at any point. We have been in 2022. This is huge this is the market telling us that in all of 2022.

All of this area over here we had more fear about inflation than we do now in other words. We think we're at the cusp of a turn a massive drop in inflation. Just the other day. I showed a chart that lined up that's why you want to watch every day that lined up the 5 year break.

Even and the 10 year break. Even with cpi and you saw a direct correlation between when the five and ten year break even plummeted cpi plummeted soon after that so. The bond market is pricing in that inflation is about to dump. But before that happens.

The bond market is also telling us hey. We've got an inverted yield. Curve. Which means that we're fearful that we might see a recession.

The white line here is the inverted yield. Curve and it is inverted any time. It is under this approximate red line ish that i drew there it's a little higher than where it should be but it's close enough. And there is a fear that we could actually see the fed continue to be aggressive to the point.

Where the yield curve actually inverts to something like what happened in the early 90s. Which is a pretty good inversion four tenths of uh of a percent. Now what's actually kind of neat about that kind of inversion is we ended up having a soft landing in the mid 90s from the federal reserve now remember folks the fed has never gone soft on us without real yields being positive well take a look at this the futures market has finally priced in positivity. This is good this means positive real yields in the future.

Now here's how that works. Let's just say. The yield on the two year treasury is three percent and inflation is let's say two point seven five percent next year. Well now you have a yield on that treasury of about a quarter of a percent.

That is a real positive yield. And why is that so important again. Because the fed has never gone soft on us without having this positive arrow right here that's really really critical because if that stayed negative. Which it has been for a while then we know the fed still has to get more aggressive on us now at the same time crude oil is finally.

Falling thank goodness wti is down to 966. This will help inflation plummet in the next few months. A lot of this is happening because folks believe that europe is going into recession. And they're probably going to have a deeper recession than us in america.

I'm in europe right now and i'll let you know what i see. When i actually get out and about i kind of just checked into the hotel room. And i'm like i gotta update the subscribers and the non subscribers. You know some of you watch who aren't subscribers.

They're even haters who watch and you know what thanks for watching i appreciate it you know it's okay to hate uh. Just don't lie just don't lie. It's okay to hate just don't lie so uh. Then we've got our earnings coming up this is going to be really interesting.

Because there are a few things we're going to watch for earnings number one we really want to pay attention to pricing power. Now one of the reasons. I flip flopped and sold in january. And then said.

I would re buy which i want to just take a moment to make that very clear remember what i said on january 22nd. I said that i sold uh and i sold on the 21st right. I told course members here i planned my video for the next day. And i told everybody about it here.

I said that i would sell because companies have too much pricing power inflation is going to last substantially. Longer things are going to get a lot worse before they get better and then i'm going to rebuy within 60 days. And so that's what i've done i've flipped back into the market about 80. Which wasn't another flip flop.

It was it was me doing what i said. I was going to do because i wanted to buy when prices are cheaper and sure some things have gone a little bit lower. But that's okay because i'm still buying and i've got some cash right now so i'm still ready to buy in case. We get that big spike and we get that cathartic flush out we talked about earlier right so uh pricing power was one of the big reasons that i originally sold and so what we really kind of want to see is that companies that we're not invested in are losing pricing power.

Because uh selfishly that means that those companies can help us get inflation down. Because they'll start dropping prices. Like you want to see the walmarts and the targets and stuff dropping prices. Because that's going to help bring inflation down right obviously companies you're investing in you want to see remaining pricing power and margins that are up right.

But another thing that we want to see obviously in addition to margins is we want to see what the banks are doing and we've got some big earnings coming out this week from not only delta. This is going to be the airlines. We'll talk about them in a sec. But we've got jpm and morgan stanley releasing earnings this week now this is really really important because what i specifically want to look for here is number three allowance for credit losses.

Okay. These are really really really important because if jpm and morgan stanley go okay yeah look we know we're going into a recession. We're going to take massive credit losses because we expect or we're already starting to see increasing default rates or whatever that's going to potentially forecast how deep the banks think the recession is going to get remember what they did in covid when covet hit the banks took like billions i mean up you know in one quarter. They're like we're just gonna write off five billion dollars in credit losses just to take the loss now and assume that people are just not going to pay back their debts.

And yeah. It's going to suck of course. The fed basically bailed everyone out and the banks are like okay. I guess we can take those back as earnings.

Now. Which is kind of cool. And that's why the banks did well later in 2020 and early in 2021 and then kind of like softened from there. But these banks are really going to let us know a lot about the consumer.

I expect the earnings calls to be critical in terms of insight for how the consumer is doing. But really want to watch those allowances for credit losses. Because if they don't have big allowances for credit losses. Then it's kind of like really like you say you have a risk of a recession.

But like you're not pricing it in so like which is it right so that's going to be really interesting. It will show us are we going to have like a minor recession is this going to be a technical recession or we have a deep recession also what are they saying about housing. I mean obviously we know the mortgage departments are going to get crushed the trading departments for like retail clients are going to get crushed. I think uh you know the the trading activities maybe within their hedge funds uh within the banks.

The hedge departments at the banks might do decently. But these these earnings. I think are going to be very very very critical and they're going to set the stage for the rest of the earnings season uh of course the delta. It'd be kind of interesting to see what they're seeing if we can get like a demographic breakdown of like who's spending money.

House travel in europe versus america. I was just on a delta flight uh going to new york and uh uh. You know the i have to say both my oh. This is actually quite interesting even though we have all these staff shortages.

My flight to new york had quite a few open seats and my flight from jfk to frankfurt. Also had quite a few open seats like they definitely didn't fully sell out uh. The plane or the business class section. Which which i was kind of surprised by because i feel like usually they just like free upgrade people to the business class section instead of leaving seats empty.

But uh no they were definitely the seats empty so that's quite interesting uh taiwan semiconductor also reports on on thursday. So jpm's thursday delta is wednesday morning jpm thursday morning. You've got. Morgan stanley thursday morning and taiwan.

Semiconductors thursday morning. That's going to be fascinating too for amd and nvidia players because i really think the chip market still has pain coming ahead of it especially as the demand that we're getting for chips has slowed down substantially from the crypto department. You know whether it's the a6 for ethereum or the graphic cards for bitcoin whatever right. We've also seen just a slowdown in uh overall uh chip stockpiling because we are starting to see some form of demand slowdown for like at home pcs right so this will be very very interesting to see how tsm does and that'll be a big precursor for the entire chip industry.

We have been seeing used chip prices fall as well on ebay. I mean. It's been straight down uh. We do so so that'll be interesting.

We did also get an update that peloton is bringing their production. Well they used to have their production in house. Now they've decided to actually outsource their production to rexxon industrial. A taiwanese company.

I you know they had a lot of some product issues. They had rust issues rustgate issues about covering up these rushed rust issues. But what i thought was weird about this peloton uh now wanting to to outsource their manufacturing. What i thought was weird about that is they freaking bought pre core like it should be easy for them to manufacture uh fitness equipment and precor was a big part of the peloton uh appeal.

Because pre core could get peloton into strength training. And i mean the pre core already makes high quality gym equipment. Just google type into google pre core gym equipment. And then you'll see and be like oh yeah.

I've seen that at like every hotel. I ever go to it's like really high quality stuff. So i thought that was kind of weird. We are on the eve of cpi release.

I will try to live stream. The cpi release tomorrow it'll be the afternoon here in germany. I will try to uh do so cpi could end up coming in as high as. 9 the bloomberg consensus right now of course is.

88 and of. Course we were at 86. Last month. So if we get a nine banger boy it's just going to make biden quite sad that's for darn sure but uh no it's going to make a lot of people quite sad we do have the federal reserve bank also giving us a little bit of an update we've got uh.

Mr bostak from atlanta telling us that the us. Economy can cope with higher interest rates and at the same time you've got esther. George. Who voted against the 75 bp hike last month.

Suggesting hey we got to be careful into tightening too fast. Although like we saw yesterday. Folks. Like bill gross are like come on folks get us to three and a half percent and then just flatline will you fed just like stop bsing us okay we got serious problems here so anyway that gives you an overall update thank you so much for watching this video.

I'm going to clean this board and now i'm going to go walk around the city all right i appreciate you all if there's breaking news maybe i'll go film from a different location. But i really like this board and sorry i'm on vacation to make your stocks drop. But you know maybe you can leave me a thank you for giving you some deals uh like the 50 off coupon code all right thanks bye.