Everyone me kevin here. I haven't done this before. But today we are doing doing cpi from a beach somewhere in germany. Yeah who knew germany had beaches.

But all right here's we got headline. Inflation the estimates for june are year over year. 88 and month over month is expected to come in as high as 11. Folks uh there are four out of the top six bloomberg ranked economists projecting an 89.

Year over year. Uh inflation read. Which basically means we are knocking on the door of nine percent folks. We've got huge huge concerns uh that this either will be a peak inflation.

Which is the hope or that this is just the beginning. Obviously if this ends up just being the beginning then folks what does that mean that means that we end up having to get a paul a vulcar which nobody wants so preventing a paul volcker. Here is absolutely critical best case scenario. Folks we start seeing a decline in inflation.

Not another runaway set of inflation. Numbers. The numbers come out in two minutes. So we'll be covering those alive as they come in the uh.

Another big thing that we're going to be paying attention to is a reading of. Uh not only core. Inflation which we expect to come in at 05. Percent.

But also the owner's equivalent rents owner's equivalent rents have for a very very long period of time uh actually lagged we haven't seen owner's equivalent rents actually come up uh to to uh levels that uh rents are actually going up we have year over year rents still increasing in some areas at a pace of 14 year over year in many areas at a pace of six percent year over year yet we still get owner's equivalent rents sitting at somewhere around four to five percent inflation on cpi so cpi reads for inflation or such lagging indicators. Sadly. But the entire cpi report honestly let's be real it's a lagging indicator we've got commodities pricing we've uh commodities crashing basically copper's crashing you've got industrial metals crashing you've got the bloomberg commodity index crashing i mean inflation is expected to come down and no why would i be wearing pants. I never wear pants anyway all right folks.

We are within uh within seconds now of the cpi release coming out uh by the way. The futures market is pricing in that this is the set this june data set is going to be peak inflation. That's what the futures market is pricing in then the question becomes how quickly can we actually get inflation to come down will inflation come down. Reasonably.

Quickly or will it come down. Slow. That's the big question. Okay here we.

Go let's get a. Drum. Roll again we're. Expecting.

11 oh. It comes in at. 13. Oh uh and 91.

Oh. It comes in way worse than expected. Oh. My gosh.

This is this is why when i go on vacation. Do i do this to all y'all. What the what the hell is my problem. Nine point one percent.

There we go every estimate well not every estimate uh four out of uh six of the bloomberg estimates were that we'd get. An 89 the other two were. 88 no folks we got 91. Over the last 12 months.

This is the worst cpi read yet we are now over. 9 we've got a month over a month over month at 13. In june. Folks you can't even make this stuff up how bad that is i got to go to a calculator just to do the.

Math here. 13 at an annualized. Rate we're at 156. Annualized rate of inflation.

This is absolutely nutty. What went freaking nuts in june holy crap. Uh. June.

June june used cars up 16. Are you freaking kidding. Me. Use.

Everybody's like oh. No use the used car bubble has. Popped it's over used cars are. Over no it ain't.

16 percent in june transportation services up 21. Now. That does have some energy. Pricing in there.

Holy crap this. Is. Bad uh. Utility.

Pricing. 82. Energy. Services.

35. Uh. Commodities. Less food and energy.

Are you freaking. Kidding. Me dude. Core core missed as well this folks.

This is the nail in the coffin. We are getting 75 basis points from the fed here. Uh this is this is bad. Uh core came in at.

08 that's an annualized rate of. 96. Inflation. That's terrible uh food uh.

Up one percent again energy. Up seven point five percent uh new vehicles about point seven percent medical care commodities point four. Percent i wanna get to shelter. Shelter finally coming up a little bit 06.

Percent which we've been expecting that to finally get priced in a little bit oh man. Let me. See what the suits are saying. Here.

Because. This is a complete disaster s. P. 500.

Futures immediately from up four percent to literally down one percent like if you wanted to see a fat uh. Red candlestick folks look at the s p. 500. Because we just went from being up almost half a percent thinking don't worry the worst is behind us.

Two oh crap. We're just getting started. What the hell uh yeah. This is this is basically a guaranteed 75 basis point hike.

What you're gonna see in the media. Now folks is you're gonna start seeing calls uh for you absolutely signing up for the programs on building your wealth link down below 50 off by the way. I'm starting a new thing where every single day. I'm going to try to send uh some trading.

Suggestions like certain trading moves that i would make whether i make them or not sort of like little signals. We're gonna be including those for free for everybody in the stocks and psychology of money group. I wasn't planning on announcing that yet. Here but this video is also brought to you by streaming go to kevincom.

Streamyard to learn about this professional live streaming software that's letting me stream from here. And i can put up comments like this donal allen saying. Don't vote for me bro okay. What else do we have here.

Let's give you some more of the headlines here okay so first of all very very bad the fact that we got uh month over month. 13. Headline at 91. Percent.

Uh core was a disaster as well uh. We've got uh let's see here uh. This is this year over year number by the way is higher than every single estimate and i think now you're actually this is where i was gonna go uh. I think you're gonna get the media starting to call for a uh 100 basis point hike.

I think they're gonna say fed you are so far behind. The curve like get freaking to it and and just get rates like do basically. What bill gross said. Get to three and a half percent uh now like hike.

So you're going to see calls for 100 basis points. You're going to see calls for uh 125 basis. Points this is terrible 13. On the monthly.

This is the highest monthly gain that we've had since 2005 uh the headline again is the highest since november of 1981. So the monthly is the highest since 05 headline since 1981 so there you go again with the 40 year high uh equity futures again uh negative bitcoin holding above 2 000 on a monthly basis okay we talked about that the uh two year yield just went from flat to up 12 basis point on the two year yield. That's a pretty dang. A big move notable beat okay.

Let's let's get into some more of the granular. Here big bigger gains than forecast again beating all the estimates. 13 is the month over. Month the estimate was.

11 which was actually recently revised up we were originally at a 11. Estimate. I want to go through the actual document. Now and see if we can get a little bit more color on the breakdown here uh especially shelter.

We got the point six percent read on shelter apparel rose point eight percent let me get the spreadsheet here on the table. So we can look at some of the exact details here consumer prices boy oh boy. This is just it's just pretty bad uh. Honestly.

I i don't i it it does actually make me concerned how wrong exactly what you're saying. Jake here. How wrong wall street can be just over and freaking over again uh. It's pretty ridiculous you'd think that they could be able to uh estimate a little bit better.

But no they can't all right uh here. We go so i've got the full table up now. We've got oh man okay uh so food food point nine percent. This is uh let's see here no let me go over sorry.

I got the wrong table. Let me get a new table. Here this is consumer price index average selected areas all areas. There we go that's what i want by category okay.

I just want to get the full on table here okay all right there we go. That's what we want okay june. So month over month for june here. We go food again came in at.

One point one percent one percent even energy. 75 fuel oil down 12. But motor fuel up 11 percent be curious to know what the difference is here uh. But just flying through this apparel point eight percent apparel seriously.

We were starting to see weakness in apparel. Like what happened to freaking target at walmart. Oh. We're gonna start reducing prices.

Because because we have too much. Inventory yeah apparently not because apparel is still going up 08. Dude. What happened man what freaking happened man uh.

That's crazy uh. Oh. Sorry okay hold on hold on no no i did mess up on apparel. I totally missed i so apparel's the only one i read wrong sorry about that apparel did go down a poi apparel went down point eight percent that's my bad uh.

If year over year is up point eight percent okay so that's fine okay i'm in the month column here new vehicles new vehicles up 11 you've got alcoholic. Beverages. 04 shelter uh and rent of primary residence there it is a. 06 medical.

Services point five percent transportation. Services. 31. Jeez.

Man airline. Fares. Again are you kidding me i mean we got delta earnings this morning and delta beat on the top. Line we've got 186.

Percent as a month over month change on uh that's the last month. This month is uh this month flat okay good so airline fares were flat this month. All right let me get to the even more detailed expansion here. What a freaking mess is the vehicle uh a chart up.

Because of tesla. Who knows it'll be interesting. Okay now we've got the full detail chart just to see if there are any other things that we want to look at so we've got may to june. Okay.

We've read lots of these i'm looking at meats dropping in. Prices. Pork pretty much flat ham up 34. Frankfurters.

Hey that's what we're having out here in germany those are uh. 48 it's always my fault eggs are up 103. Percent what else do we have here milk is up 31. Percent fresh fruits down okay let's get to some more of the categories.

I want to see like computers and some of these like. Chips and. That coffee really coffee up almost a. Full percent.

Again. 09 apples 23. All right let's get out of that section. Here.

Let's get to get out of food for a moment. Okay here we go food away from home a point nine percent that's almost a full percent on food away from home absolutely ridiculous. Oh. This is so bad we got to talk implications in just a moment window coverings one.

Percent oh sorry floor coverings one percent window coverings down. 39. Looking for some down furniture down other furniture down. 15 but living room kitchen and dining room furniture up.

21 this is broad based. Folks this is terrible household paper products up 22. But men's shirts are down. 3.

Yeah well i don't want any discount items that's why i'm not wearing a shirt. Yeah. This is making me sweat uh like literally all right used cars and trucks dude come on man 22 tires up 07. This is another broad based destruction of.

Our economy how computer software. And accessories 23 computers and peripherals. 13 are you. Kidding me why alcohol is up 05.

Oh. Man oh man okay. Continuing continuing down. The list here just seeing.

If i could see anything else. Services pet services. Okay well. At least pet services are uh down point seven percent club memberships are down.

Fractionally but admissions to sporting events are up 29. It's a broadband. I mean apparel services of one percent financial services are down point five percent. Though okay so here's the thing all right let's let's just be real.

Now uh uh. Let me let me look for just a second what the suits are saying. See. If there's anything else the suits are saying and then i want to just do do real talk here because this this is just garbage.

So now i'm gonna go away from the stupid chart let's go back let's try to get somewhat better lighting. I don't know if that's even possible. Okay interest rate futures are now implying a september rate of 29. That suggests.

There's a risk of 275 basis point moves now in a row. Yeah. That doesn't surprise. Me inflation is high and broad based.

Exactly that's exactly what we saw in the chart that broad based inflation. Again just looking at the. Suits here uh. 210.

Yield. Curve now at. Minus. 015.

10. Year yield up to 315. Uh. Five contri contribution changes.

Okay well yeah. That's the main categories. Okay. So the suits.

The suits are basically just telling us that the futures market is now pricing. It 275 basis point hikes. So so let's be real about what this means. What this means is uh this this honestly this might not be uh.

I mean we would hope that this is a peak but with how broad based this is i don't know if we could say this is a peak yet uh and i think the stock market and bond market are going to be thinking to themselves. We we still have not gotten prices under control one of the things that you have to remember is that you've got uh year over year consumer spending decelerating. But it's still growing see even american express. Which is one of your most premium credit card providers.

They say that even though or at least analysts are expecting even though they expect uh consumer spending in the higher income and the more prime demographics to slow it's still going to be positive year over year. So what's so weird about that is if you think about it like so we go from like normal levels to like bubbling up crazy right. And then like even though. We're not growing like we previously did we're so get out of here b.

Geez uh. We're still growing on top of these bubbly levels right and that's why we're seeing pricing power like across the board. I mean with the exception of like etsy uh etsy. I mean we we do fundamental analysis in the course member live streams and one of the things we notice is fc doesn't have pricing power uh like the merchants on etsy uh amazon prime obviously doesn't have pricing power.

I mean some things are starting to lose some of their pricing competitiveness. But even you look at like macy's and nike and i'm like really expecting them to lose some of their pricing power. What do they say in every earnings call. Oh uh yeah.

Less discounting and more full price sales and i'm like what so what what this means is you know the market potentially could be overly optimistic that this is it this is peak inflation you know oh commodities are crashing. We're at peak inflation don't worry the federal u turn next year. And it'll all be good maybe not if the consumer keeps spending commodities can go down. But what keeps inflation hot and this is dangerous owner's equivalent rents uh now what point six or point seven percent.

I think one of one of them was point seven one was point six. It doesn't really matter so much. But either way i mean. That's that's seven point two to eight point four percent right.

That is going to be a tailwind that keeps inflation high for a. While. So you're going to have consumer. Inflation.

Or consumer. Spending. Keeping inflation high for a while as commodities. Fall.

You're going to have owners. Equivalent. Rents. Keeping inflation high for a while as uh commodities fall.

And so. Even if if oil goes down. We're still looking at pain for a while to come with with inflation. And and here.

We go thinking oh uh. It's you know. It's fine. This will be the peak and uh and that's it this is terrible like there was no solace.

I mean even even amongst. I mean how many times did kathy wood tell us oh don't worry whose cars are gonna go down uh uh new car prices are gonna come down it's all gonna come down. It's not it's not and that means the fed's going to have to get even more aggressive. So i think 75 is the new normal 75 is the new 50 it used to be 25.

Now it's just. 75 now we're going to start having to price in 75. 7575. And any time you price in uh.

These these higher uh rate hikes from the fed you're gonna probably. See the qqq correct to lower levels. And it's terrible uh. But that also creates the opportunities right that creates opportunities to buy for longer at some point inflation will go away.

It certainly is not short term transitory. But at some point inflation will go away. So this will create more opportunities and one of the things i'm talking to course members a lot about is when we do real estate analyses. We talk about the idea that hey the longer the 10 year treasury yield stays up the longer we have the opportunity to get good deals on real estate.

So there are some good things. It's just sad in the short term right because that means if we're exposed to equities in the short term. We have to ride with crap for a little while longer uh with higher inflation. Which means more aggressive rate increases.

And and uh unaccommodated. Fed. Which means eventually people. Start running out of buying power.

And and uh. Who knows maybe we will get that cathartic flush out that we kind of need to see in the stock market. Where people just finally say that's it we have no faith left in in the fed. We're just gonna sell and we're gonna sit this one out and that you know when that day comes.

Maybe that marks the bottom and when that marks the bottom then uh then then you know there we go who knows when that's gonna be i certainly don't know one of the things that uh we find in recessions is it's very hard to to have extremely high conviction in anything because everything's so like unpredictable uh. You know people like to say the worst words in investing or this time is different. But boy oh boy you look back at prior recessions try to find one. Where inflation.

Expectations were plummeting. But inflation was skyrocketing like the bond market. Can't even get it right. And usually the bond market is is like so such a good leading indicator of inflation coming down uh.

You know i still hope and this is possible that our july and august reads. Which come out in august. And september for inflation show us that inflation is finally meaningfully coming down. But at this point.

That's just opium and the big concern now is exactly uh what uh. Mr. Gosh here says. Which is uh uh.

If inflation becomes entrenched. Then we get paul walker anyway i wish you luck out there use the fifty percent off coupon code down below go to mykevincom streamyard to know how i streamed this and uh. I'll see you in the course number live stream. I will be releasing some uh alerts on uh.

Some ideas some trade ideas especially after the cpi release in the stocks group. So that way we get more alerts out to everyone in the stocks group because even though. I don't trade every single day uh. I i have a lot of ideas and uh a lot of these ideas are are ones.

Where i look back i'm like dang it i knew i wanted to short oil there or dang. It i knew i wanted to short end phase. There and uh and these are ideas that i want to start pitching so that way at least you can pick up the uh. The torch.

So to speak and then make the decision to see if it's right for your portfolio rather than just copying every single move or if i don't make a move then you don't even hear about the idea right so that way you hear the ideas so more benefits uh for free for those of you in stocks and psych. And that's always my goal provide more value thanks for watching folks we'll see you bye.