Folks just as it felt like we were getting some relief in this painful stock stock market. Which has just been straight down we ended up crushing our five day in the nasdaq. With today. The nasdaq being down two percent.

Why are stocks falling. Today are we going to crash through uh now new lower levels. The nasdaq getting all the way down to 268 at one point. Sitting at just around 290 right now when we use the etf qqq as a tracking measure folks.

What's next and why are people and markets. So uncertain today. A lot has to do with the numbers that are coming out this week. So let's talk about those because it's going to give us a lot of insight into why all of a sudden stocks ain't very very happy.

And we got quite a few of unhappy campers. I mean just take a look at this fastly down. 13 up work down 10 open. Door.

8. Peloton another 8. Roblox another. 8 a firm down.

72 and of. Course you've got tesla also down 39. Following. The potential that elon musk is going to get sued by the twitter board twitter of course being down 69.

At the time of this recording. So what's going on what's creating all of the anxiety well folks. The answer is pretty simple this week in just two days. We get a cpi release that is expected to be the worst cpi release.

Yet again in 40 years. Now. It feels like we've been saying. Wow.

This is the worst cpi release in 40 years for many months in a row. Now. But it's true we keep hitting new. Peaks yes on wednesday at 5 30 am.

We expect a cpi to come in at a higher rate previously. We had inflation that came in at eight point six percent year over year. And now folks we expect that to not be eight point six. Percent we expect eight point 88 at least based on.

Bloomberg. Consensus estimates cpi will be coming in at 88. On a month over month basis. And remember we can annualize this by multiplying by 12 to get sort of an idea of the speed at which we're traveling.

We expect annualized inflation to come in at one percent. If we multiply that by 12. It implies we are still growing inflation at an annualized rate of 12. That's pretty high any time.

The annualized rate is actually greater than what the current inflation rate is it means you're still trending. Up and this is by a large margin by 32 percentage. Points. There's a difference here now you might think hey.

But maybe core is decelerating well not really when we look at core. The projections for core are going to be about a half percent on the month over month basis. Which still means we're inflating at six percent on an annualized basis substantially far away from the federal reserve's two percent goal and a lot of folks are suggesting now that hey the fed's two percent goal is not even realistic especially since we need to consider that inertial inflation that happens when essentially more people move into renting from home buying. Leading rents to actually go up creating pressure under cpi because well.

After all rents make up about 30 of the cpi read and even that is flawed. It's the owner's equivalent rent. Which lags by about 6 to 12 months it's pretty remarkable but anyway even as we do see some of these items come down we get at a peak airline travel season. We could still see inertial inflation hold these inflation numbers up and unfortunately.

It's not a good thing. That's the read that comes out in just two days from day today of course today. We did have small business optimism that came in low. But i don't think that's really what's moving markets.

I think this is a typical sell the rally kind of market rather than buy the dip or selling the rip. Because folks expect that that cpi number is going to be pretty miserable on wednesday. Now some say don't worry that bad cpi. Number is already baked into the cake.

And what we're really expecting is that the wednesday number will officially be our peak and then it'll be down in glory since for from there sure. And that's what we said in march. And april in march and april. We said oh well the march numbers are going to be peak and so we got our peak march numbers and then what happened april numbers came in lower and we're like see look the peak is over and what happened right after that inflation came in higher again come on folks.

It makes it very very difficult to get happy anytime. We talk about inflation. The only thing that makes people happy these days is the fact that you can get lifetime access to the programs on building your wealth so for a bargain 50 off using that coupon code a link down below and you can take advantage of that coupon code before it expires before those prices go up because price goes up about two to three times a month. So take advantage of those price increases.

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So we have cpi on the 13th on the 14th. We're going to get the ppi read and this is the purchasing price index. Here we are expecting a gain of. 08 on a month over month basis for purchaser prices and a 106 bump year over year on the purchasing price index these are also substantially high figures 106 percent year over year to get to those double digit reads folks tend to get a little bit more nervous but i think the most anticipated read of this week.

Is probably going to be the u of m. Consumer. Expectation survey. See we can go to the bond market pretty much on the daily basis.

And see what expectations are for inflation. And expectations for inflation have been falling in fact. If we look at the five year break. Even right now.

And we do. So. Together the five year. Break even right now is sitting at 26.

That's a relatively low level here. It is on screen. You can see year to date. We're at almost the absolute lowest level that we've been for the markets.

Expectations of inflation. Which is great. But consumer expectations for inflation have been relatively. Stable we've been sitting at expectations of a one year 53.

Percent inflation rate and a 5 to 10. Year expected inflation rate of. 3 that should be down from 31. But still relatively stable here still above that.

2 fed goal. I believe if we end up getting a miss here like we did in june. Where initially it came in higher and was revised down later this could end up leading to more shock from the fed. Especially combined with what will probably be the highest cpi.

Read in again last 40 years. So these coupled together make for quite an uncertain week and could explain why there's some tumult in markets. Though if you take a look at what commodity prices are doing. Commodity prices are trending straight down.

Let's take a look at this right here here you can see commodity prices or industrial metals in this case this is the bloomberg industrial metals sub index which kind of gives you an idea for pricing of things like copper or aluminum steel iron altogether what we end up getting is this massive decline where we've really fallen about 618. Percent of the way uh back down to the lows that we previously had here. In 2020 the fact that we're. 608.

618. Percent of the way to our uh. April. Uh.

And march of 2020 lows. Is pretty remarkable and is showing an absolute decline in those commodity prices. Which is good news. Hopefully for inflation.

But it's going to take a few months for that to actually show up in inflation. It's got to get through production first and then it's got to get to the consumer uh and one of the neat things too is you do have analysts that are substantially bullish right now and bloomberg is suggesting that analysts being this bullish tends to actually be correlated with some of the best returns in a market. Some of the worst returns in a market come from times. When analysts are actually not as bullish and this is obviously creating substantial debates that we're going to face in earnings recession and that analysts are going to have to revise down their earnings expectations remarkably.

But if analysts having bullish expectations might be wrong in the short term. Very short term say two weeks three weeks four weeks they might actually be right in the long term. And this is what has me buying the dip and dollar cost averaging into my favorite positions whether it's my m1 finance pie that's a more diversified pie or some of my higher conviction names. All of which including every single trade.

I make or posted in the stocks and psychology of money group whether it's options or shorts or longs or puts or calls whatever they're all posted folks something to keep an eye on maybe. If analysts are this bullish either they're totally wrong or they're right and in a year from now we're going to go dang. We got a nice 20 or 30 percent return year over year fingers crossed. But hopefully this video gives you a little insight into some of the drama that's happening this week and boy oh boy there's gonna be drama.