Michael bury is known for the big short, but he'll, soon be known, for the big short too bury is currently betting on the worst financial crisis in u.s history. That's right! We're talking about a collapse that is worse than the 2008 recession, the dot-com bubble, the great depression and the great inflation brewery is foreseen. The mother of all crashes, backed by the biggest decline in corporate earnings. The world is about to wake up to this crisis within the next few months, and bury will once again make billions in the process.

The past 13 years represented the largest bull run in u.s history. The s p 500 has increased by over six times in value. Since 2008, this unprecedented price increase was filled by growing liabilities. Total public debt has tripled to over 30 trillion dollars since 2009, and while it's impossible to know how much debt is too much, it's certainly not sustainable to keep adding trillions of dollars in debt every year.

The growing debt balance is coupled with a massive decline in consumer savings. The u.s personal savings rate is currently reaching levels that haven't been seen since 2008.. Total personal savings have also declined through levels not seen in almost a decade, despite inflation. The fact that total savings are declining while trillions of dollars are being added to the economy is extremely concerning to make matters even worse.

Credit card debt is reaching all-time highs, signaling that the consumer is getting weaker and weaker every day. Michael bury tweeted that u.s personal savings fell to 2013 levels, the saving rate to 2008 levels, while revolving credit card debt grew at a record-setting pace back to pre-covered peak. Despite all those trillions of dollars of cash drops in their laps looming a consumer recession and more earnings trouble the weakening consumer directly impacts the sales of companies as the economy works with a circular flow businesses and households transact in the factory market by exchanging labor for Income, the other side of this is the product market, where households purchases products that businesses profit from, because the households have weak purchasing power. This will cause the product market to experience.

Lower activity. Lower consumption in the products market will lead to less corporate profits. Less corporate profits will lead the factor market to weaken, decreasing household income and weakening the products market. Once again, this is a positive feedback loop, because one negative event could instigate an infinite downward spiral.

Economists call this the circular flow model, as economic disasters at any point in the cycle are contagious. Think about the circular flow model like dropping one drop of food coloring into a bucket of water. The entire bucket of water will be colored within a matter of seconds. Bury is giving numerical evidence as to why the lowering consumer sentiment will cause a depression.

The reason why is that the low consumer activity will lower corporate earnings decreasing household income and leading to even less saving brewery reiterated his statement by showing the downwards trend of the us personal savings to gdp. Charting total u.s personal savings gdp redline has the all-time low at 1.5 percent set in july 2005 at the last 12 months, rate of depletion of savings could hit that level between september and december this year. Borrowing time attached to the tweet is a graph showing a cyclical decline in the personal savings to gdp ratio. Burry is clearly calling for a consumer-led recession, but he's not the only one saying that federal reserve chairman jerome powell once said in 2019 that he was very worried about the growing u.s debt.

The total u.s debt back then was roughly 22 trillion dollars. That number has now increased to over 30 trillion dollars, which is a 36 increase in three and a half years. All of this is concerning, but you might be wondering what degree of a collapse we're talking about here. Prominent economists worldwide often compare our situation to the 1970s when the u.s experienced inflation in the double digits.

The 1970s is often seen as a period of stagflation because the economy simultaneously experienced high unemployment and high inflation. This period of time coincided with a record increase in the misery index due to low consumer purchasing power. Imagine a period in which you not only become unemployed, but also witness your money become worthless. That might seem frightening, but bury actually believes that our current situation is magnitude's worse than the 1970s michael burrie explained how some compare the us of today to the 1970s, but the 1970s saw rapidly growing labor force participation due to the post-world war ii baby boom.

We have the opposite today: birth rates at 1950 levels and nuclear families and 1959 levels, despite a two times larger population, don't help the reason why burger refers to our current situation as the opposite of the 1970s is because of two factors: the labor force, participation rate And the birth rate, the 1950s is known as the baby boom, because the fertility rate increased dramatically. This drastically increased the labor force and therefore allowed for increased economic activity in the 1970s top this off, with a rapid increase in the labor force, participation rate and the situation wasn't as bad as it seemed. Our current position is the opposite of this, even though we have a population size that is 2 times larger than the 1970s. We have a birth rate that is half of that of the 1950s.

Not only that, but the labor force participation rate is just continuing to decrease over time due to the great resignation. The great resignation was a period that started in the spring of 2021, when a huge influx of u.s workers began quitting their jobs. The reason for these resignations included low pay, no advancement opportunities, disrespect and a myriad of other reasons, so the 1970s was a horrible time with significant social unrest. But imagine what will happen in 2022 when we have both stagflation and an incredibly weak labor market brewery tweeted an article that stated the parallels between the 2020s and the 1970s grow more numerous.

By the day the economy faces. The threat of stagflation fuel prices are surging and shortages loom, politicians are flailing, the international environment is deteriorating, the supreme court is revisiting the 1973 roe v raid ruling. The homicide rate is storing a made of general sense of social breakdown. The article pointed out seven similarities between the 1970s and today, stagflation field, prices, shortages, political turmoil, geopolitical tension, roe v, wade and social breakdown bury is showing this article in order to show how our modern crisis is essentially the 1970s.

But much worse. And, despite focusing on the 1970s brewery, actually sees characteristics in every single u.s crisis. In our current situation, he joked around by saying that a band named slipknot started: shooting the generals in september 2000 january 2008 and april 2022, while bury was joking about slipknot's music videos. He certainly believes that our current bubble is the mother of all bubbles.

He once tweeted in late 2021 about how we have more speculation than the 1920s, more overvaluation than the 1990s more geopolitical and economic strife than the 1970s players grabbing the barrel of kyle richton house's rifle, while the sec and federal reserve not approvingly. In addition to describing the similar characteristics to other crises, bury us also publicly called the current bubble, the greatest speculative bubble of all times, in all things by two orders of magnitude. But even though the economy is in a poor position, a strong government body can help alleviate some economic and social concerns. This has not been the case with president joe biden.

The vast majority of economists have complained about how biden has been exacerbating government debt issues through high fiscal spending. Biden's budget has totaled to an amount of 5.8 trillion dollars, which is over 25 percent of the total u.s gdp. This level of spending during an inflationary period is simply going to intensify our current crisis. Brewery complained about biden's fiscal spending.

By wishing a real potato was president, some will say that the dollar index is increasing, and this means that the us dollar is in a strong position. However, the dollar index compares the u.s dollar to other fiat currencies. Fiat currencies are government-backed. Currencies like the chinese, iran or the russian rubles, because we're in a global crisis, comparing the us dollar to other international paper currencies is meaningless, where we warned about this by saying when you see mention of the strong dollar the almighty dollar.

Please remember. This is only in relation to other fiat currencies. The dollar is not at all strong and it is not getting stronger. We all see it every single day in prices of everything.

In other words, the us dollar is strengthening in comparison to other fiat currencies, but when it's compared to actual items, the dollar is getting weaker and weaker by the day. Michael bury's macroeconomic thesis is quite clear, but not many will actually listen to his warnings. One investor who didn't listen to birdie before the 2008 recession was warren buffett buffett later regretted this and publicly stated that he should have considered bury's hypothesis. Michael burley believes that this will happen again and tweeted a video where buffett called him cassandra.

Cassandra is a trojan priestess in greek mythology that told true prophecies that nobody ever believed buffy called buried cassandra because buried was telling a true prophecy that everyone ignored congress. But don't we expect referees to make the call, even if they're going to get booed yeah and they made the wrong call. I mean they. They.

They basically believed that most of the american public didn't and you couldn't have had this size bubble without overwhelming and the cassandras were there. But who was going to listen to john paulson in 2005 or 2006 or michael burnham, and it didn't mean anything brewery - had bets against the market that allowed him to make billions in the 2008 recession, and he also has those bets right now, while he does profit On market crashes, broly doesn't enjoy doing so. As i said about 2008, it is like watching a plane crash, it hurts, it is not fun and i'm not smiling so now we know that bury is predicting a market crash so large that it could lead to the big short too. But with that being said, how will bury profit on the incoming market crash? According to his sec filings? He is purchasing shares in stable inflationary resistant companies.

This includes 20 million dollars in a pharmaceutical company named bristol myers, roughly 18 million dollars in both facebook and google stock and a variety of other companies in a similar, strong position. The two key similarities between these companies is a strong, moat and significant pricing power. Having both of these factors will allow these companies to raise prices during an inflationary period while crushing the competitors bury also recently revealed that he has a put option on 35 million dollars worth of apple stock. This is likely a hedge against his facebook and google position.

As apple will have to deal with increasing material costs, while facebook and google do not, but more importantly, buoy likely has a substantial short position in the bond market which he doesn't have to disclose to the public. I covered this in a previous video that can be found in the description. Michael brewery is once again preparing his portfolio to profit immensely in the coming months, and he might just make billions once again. Let me know what you think about bury's short thesis down below how are you preparing for a potential market crash? If you enjoyed this video, please hit the like button and subscribe and i'll see you in the next one.

.