Hey we're live patrick by david. The man who needs no introductions is here uh, coming off of one of the best videos i've seen recently about the recession, the stock market crash. The video is doing phenomenally. It's going viral.

Congratulations. Thank you. I think there's i watched through the entire thing and i was fascinated the you talked about. You know the the tree analogy, which was brilliant in my opinion, um, but we'll talk about in a second, the huge fan happy to have you on and we could not have picked a better day with everything.

That's going on right now, so welcome aboard the market seems to agree with you. At least it seems like you were right on the money, although it's hard to say you know it's just been a few days, but it seems that we're headed into a really bad place, but we'll talk about in a second, so, first of all, um. I wanted to ask you just a general question. I was wondering before we start like the interview, because you've done some of the best interviews in the business and i watched them all.

I watched the kobe interview. I watched all the work you did with michael francis, which was brilliant, so i'm a huge fan of your interviews and uh even back in the day before i even had a channel and now you're in the opposite seat. So does it make you feel uncomfortable to be the guy who's been interviewed, i mean, do you feel more as the comfortable to be the interviewer or the guy answering the questions. I i'm comfortable both ways, i'm comfortable both ways.

You know uh the on this side when i'm the one interviewing i'm learning more, so i'm always more enjoying when i'm learning, but if you're interviewing me i'm fascinated when i walk away talking about a subject that maybe we haven't talked about before in an angle. That's new, so that's the part that makes it unique. Well, yeah! You you that's the one thing: i've always noticed. You always feel extremely comfortable in your own skin um and that's something that's.

I i've learned to appreciate in life because it's not a it's, not an easy trait to find these days. But i want to ask you, but i mean i've seen the video, but i'm i don't know how many people in the chat have seen it. But i'll. Ask you, even though i know you answered like uh, where are we headed as an economy as a country is stock market in general currency energy? I mean what the is going on.

I mean listen, bad policies have consequences period and we're paying a price for it and, at the same time, uh just like kids. You know we liked it when our parents or somebody had low standards with us, and we got things easier. It felt good short term, but we paid a price for it, long term uh. We were just in bahamas and i was talking to one of the parents that was with us in bahamas with their son, and i kept looking at their 12 year old son and the guy was on his phone, no matter where we went, he was on his Phone and i kept asking saying how much time do you give this guy to play on the iphone and they said we can only watch the iphone one hour a day.

I said one hour a day. I swear to god. I've seen him seven hours a day. Eight hours a day, i said how many times you watch the phone and then there was an element where maybe the parents even got uncomfortable.

It's like. Who cares how many hours he wants to know? It's not. I don't care how many hours? It's not my kid. It's your kid.

You can do as many hours as you want, but you have to know there is a price to be paid when you raise your kids based on low standards. Life is going to be very, very hard on these guys so america, in the last year, gradually we've been doing this everything's become more low standards. Everything's become oh poor, baby, oh poor, this all poor that oh, we can't make it out of this and don't get me wrong. I'm not talking about the one percent that needs help! I'm talking about bottom 49! That can do something about their lives, but they choose not to whatever.

The number may be some folks that are in the middle that are always blaming and they're so loud and so noisy that we start paying way too much attention, but we create policies for them. We learned ubi didn't work, that's number one. We learned that if you want to do universal basic income, if you do do it and i had andrew yank on the podcast six weeks ago to talk about this, i said we learned. We did a bunch of ubi.

The last two years guess what the money flow to billionaires, no matter how much money you give to people that don't know how to manage money, it goes back to millionaires. It goes back to billionaires. I made more money in the last 12 months than i made in my entire lifetime and it's a nine-figure check, i'm not talking about like a little money. It was a very good year for me, but i don't support the policies, even though they were good.

For me, so we are now finally in the stages where we're gon na pay this price. Some people are gon na pay it who thought it was good to go uh, and the only concern i have is: are they gon na? Let us go through the actual recovery, or will they go back to using quantitative easing to delay the headache for another decade? So all on all i'm curious about is how they're going to handle the economy going into shambles in the next 3 6 12 months, based on mathematics and how history works. We're officially will be in recession, first or second week of july, whether they announce it or not until after midterms that's a different story, but economists will tell you july 1st it's officially a recession: okay um, maybe we'll hear about it, q1 of 2023, but how they Use this crisis is all i'm curious about next yeah, it's like with transitory. We knew this was in transitory, like eight months before the admitted it, but like there's like we can just look at two negative quarters of gdp, which is exactly what we're going to get in about two weeks and we're going to know we're in recession.

Literally, as you mentioned end of q2, but they're not going to admit it until they're they're done with the political stuff, i have no, no doubt about it. The problem is that people believe that you know how many people, when i was shouting and screaming this, is not transitory boys. This is not there's abso, there's no way. This is just this literally zero percent.

This is true. You can't print so much money and have it be transitory. It's like no, it's inventories and now everybody's coming around, but i mean i i feel like. I wanted to ask you a question like in your uh in your video.

You talked about the elon musk quote, which i absolutely loved, and i don't think people understood how deep that went with this quote, because when he was talking about fools getting too much free money, he was not talking about this crisis. He was talking about what happened in 2008 when they built every under the sun, except for two just to hang two people up and then everybody else got bailed out. So we've been living through this culture of bailing, these idiots out and preventing from the from the forest regenerating, as you mentioned in your example, i think what elon was saying in the example let this burn. We need this to happen and i do you fear that the government is going to try to cover it up for political reasons and not let nature take its course.

Oh there's no question about they're they're gon na get a ahead of it. They're not gon na. Let the market do what it does, because then they're not gon na get funded on their next re-election. They they need that money.

They need that support. The pac needs to get that money. The right thing to do they, i i don't think they're going to be doing uh because, for example, you know um. I had a friend of mine who had an addiction with vicodin and he got arrested one day and he had been struggling with viking for six months and he went to jail and his parents called me and they said what do you think we should do? I said: leave him there, so what are you talking about? I said, leave him in jail for a few weeks, because, even though i took him to tarzana rehabilitation center and it was 400 bucks a day, they had one rule.

He has to tell us that he wants to go through rehab if he says he doesn't want to. We have to let him out, because this is not a jail. So, even though it was 14 days of 400 bucks a day if he said i have to leave, they have to open door and say you have to leave and when you're going through rehab off of vicodin, it's just as difficult some say or as difficult as Heroin, it's not easy. Doctors will say it's tougher to go through vicodin and i saw this guy.

He couldn't take care of himself every three days straight. He got into a car accident. He would call me i got into another car accident. He would hit people because he's on it.

So often so parents call me and say: what do you think we should do and um? I said man, let him stay. Do you want him to stay? You got listen. I know you don't want to hear this, but you got to let him stay well. He gets bailed out a day later and not be other parents, some of the girlfriend or somebody came and paid the money and he got bailed out.

You know what happened two weeks later found on his bed dead: okay, with the pills and the bible on the stomach, the most one of the most tragic days of my life till the till today i remember the phone call. What car i was in in a black, lincoln town car headed to diamond bar, when i got this call, here's a point when we go through it, it's not going to be pretty, but it's going to last about 6 to 12 months and then the market's going To decide this got bought up by pennies on a dollar on what it's worth, but it was bought by these guys. Oh those guys who were sitting on cash. Nobody knew about it, they're, not on margin.

They just bought up three companies, damn good for them. You're kidding me this one went out of business yup. Those 9 000 employees went to seven different companies. Okay, what's this guy doing well that guy had all those bitcoins on margin? Listen! If you go on margin the way you did yes, you're trying to make 5 billion and you're really going for the whole thing great, but you're on margin and you got a margin, call sorry.

Your 5 billion became 50 million or 100 million. You know, there's a movie margin, call if you've not seen it from yep 15 20 years ago. It's a very i've, been on margin. I've been i've, gotten a margin call.

Let me tell you it's very, very scary. When you get a margin call, so you know, but but in that moment when that we're in that season now i'm just curious to know how how people are going to handle that, because the aocs of the world are going to be screaming every day. Bailout bailout bailout bailout bailout, but bernie sanders bailout bailout bailout bailout and uh. It's going to be a it's going to be a challenge in times now, i'm not talking about.

Let's leave it because if you also just let it like, don't do anything about it. Crime's going to go high, which means safety is going to be not at the highest level. Then you're gon na see riots and protesting at the higher level, but unfortunately, all of these things are a byproduct of bad policies that they came up with that we as voters kept saying yeah. It's a good idea.

Yeah, it's a good idea, yeah. It's a good idea. Oh my god! Why are we sitting here at this kind of college used to be four grand a year? You know inflation cpi lasts 40 years up 225 percent. You saw that college tuition is up.

Twelve hundred thousand yeah. You tell me: college tuition has improved by a thousand percent. What do you mean education today? A four-year degree is a thousand percent better than what it was 40 years ago. The average salary still is 40, some thousand dollars.

It's only increased 120. But we're saying: let's forgive: let's give forgive all these uh college loans. No, why don't we go to universities and tell them to lower the cost of a degree instead of it's costing 50 000 a year go back to 10 grand a year. Why have all these nice fancy buildings? Why have all these nice fancy stuff, invest more into good teachers, invest less into statues and let the students and the parents save money, but no they won't do that.

So these are the conversations that are not being had, because how many of the lawmakers? The lawyers, the congressmen and senators are willing to hold the universities accountable, the same universities that they went and got the degree to get a job, be a lawyer to get a job to work. For that big firm. They can't do that. Do they have to defend the universities, but the rest of america is sitting there saying wait a minute just because you went to that degree and the certificate on the wall you're trying to validate you made the right decision, that's hurting our pockets, that's hurting our kids! That's hurting my retirement, but no so the the benefit that we have today is the following time: there's guys like you, there's guys like myself, many people out there right now that are starting to pose these questions and here's what's becoming a very valuable currency today.

This is the currency, that's becoming very valuable. Today, it's not the dollar. It's not gold. It's not bitcoin! It's not ethereum! It's not collectible cards.

It's not paintings! It's not nfts! It's the ability to reason the ability to reason, meaning bill maher doesn't like trump bill. Maher is not a republican he's, a liberal he's a registered democrat who doesn't vote for republicans, but he has the ability to reason and he's calling out a bunch of because currency of reason has a lot of value today. Rogan reason: russell brand reason: jordan, peterson reason. You know these are people that are sitting there saying listen.

I just have a hard time processing this and i'm trying to reason with you and they're talking to a bunch of people. So americans are sitting there and saying i got ta lie to you. I've been a democrat, my entire life, but it just doesn't make any sense. You know what i've been a republican in my entire life, but also this doesn't make any sense, because why are they so protective of second amendment? Yet at the same time you know i mean i understand.

Second, i don't i'm a second amendment. Guy i own m16s. I own guns, i own shotguns. I want all this stuff.

Why are we not willing to have the conversation? So both sides have all these powerful lobbyists at paul manafort on the podcast and i'm telling them that lobbyists are ruining america because their job is to convince you - and i that what's good but there's lobbyists on all sides. So we have to be able to sit there and reason and say yeah, even though you're on my side, i know what you're doing it's cool, but i want a little bit more argument. Anyways. The point is, the currency of reason is becoming very valuable today and those who are able to reason are helping us make actual progress, not progressive progress but actual progress.

You know what it reminds me like the that happens now. If this would have happened. Like 10 years ago, people would just go berserk, like politicians allow themselves now just completely disattached from any sort of correlation to truth, you got biden out there saying well, gm is the leader in electric vehicles and he's like not even blinking and like it's a straight-up Fly: it's not even there's not even like a reasonable framework where this could have been interpreted that the other way, so they straight up lying that black is white white and is black and this this the whole political discussion has now become completely partisan. It's either you your truth is determined by your political affiliation.

It's not about facts anymore, and i think that people are starting to question that saying: hey what the is going on. I mean: can you just tell us what what what the is going on instead of what you want to be the truth or not like i heard people saying: oh, it buy biden's fault for the gas prices. Well, yeah. I don't think it's it's a very nuanced discussion and by shout out to the 1300 people in the chat right now, uh.

Thank you for showing up. I think it's it's not really biden's fault, i'm not a biden fan in fact, i think he's a doofus and i've gotten a lot of flack for that. But i mean it's not his fault. It's the us governments for their generations of uh, basically kicking the oil industry in the nuts and basically disencouraging any sort of capex into oil industries uh, while going for this esg scam.

So there's a lot of reasons why all prices up? We can talk about it later, but i mean like if you, if you're, if you're a republican, so you're just shouting. Oh it's biden's fault and there's the obvious reaction. Yeah he's an idiot just chill. Let's all like kind of have a discussion and, like you know i i didn't you can hear by my accent i wasn't born in us you as well like as an immigrant, where i've never like gotten used to the fact that we we don't have a discussion.

Culture like a debate culture in this country, it's basically just it's like you, either with me, or i want to kill you there's no middle ground and that's the part where it just really triggers me like. We just are unable to have a conversation about anything right now. It's like you mentioned the second amendment. Right i mean anytime.

I hear people talk about it, it's very militant. It's either one side of that. Nobody says: okay, let's find a compromise where everybody kind of gets to do the thing but um. I i wanted to ask you a question.

Pat you mentioned earlier, the uh the college stuff. Do you feel that in 2010 um the entire college system is a little bit of a scam, because, after what happened with harvard when the charge, people like what 50 60 grand for zoom that you can basically watch for free, i feel like they got exposed. I mean, should we just i mean why are we talking about canceling student loans, where we can just cancel the system right? You know, you know what i love about the market. Here's what i love about the market.

I got four kids tom. I don't know if you got kids but my kids, three okay, so i showed four, but i have three yeah. Maybe there's one more. I don't know about who knows so.

I got four kids, my as a parent, sometimes we're lazy and here's what i mean by we're lazy, meaning. You know we don't want to explain or talk to our kids. We just tell them get it done, or else right. Well, your kids eventually get to an age where you can't do that anymore, because they now can debate and discourse and push back and my son does that and it ends up.

Sometimes i walk away, i'm like damn. He made a good point. I got to kind of tell him he's right, because i don't want him to think he's wrong. He was right in this situation.

I'll tell him hey, you know what you're right! Here's! What i need you to do, papa papa, so he's now learning how to push back and i, as a parent, i've only been a parent of four kids with a 10 year old. It's the first time. I've ever been a 43 year old, father father with a 10 year old kid, i'm learning how it is to be a parent of an 11 year old kid. I don't know yet i'm growing just as much as this kid has grown right.

So but here's what happens? Kids are gon na expose my flaws of parenting and they do it all the time. Okay, we obviously do it more than they do, because we're parents we're wiser, but that doesn't mean we don't have flaws in our own arguments and they poke holes in our way of parenting right. Okay. So where am i going with this? Here's? Where i'm going with this, let's take remote work.

Let's take working remote, that's another big debate. Some are for it somewhere against it right. Uh, howard schultz is begging. He said i'll get on my knees.

Please come back to work to see over uh uh starbucks right goldman sachs saying you have to come to work, elon musk's, saying no! You can act like you're working 40 hours from your home, but you're going to act like you're working 40 hours from the office. We're not doing remote work and if you don't want to come home, guess what quit leave now, whether he did that in a way to be able to fire and announce that he's firing, because he did that a week then the next week he says, he's firing. 10, who knows he's a strategic guy he's capable of doing that, but watch what happened with remote? Do you think more liberals or conservatives support remote work? It's probably going to be liberals, so now watch how arguments work and i mean the left. Now you should let people work from home no problem.

Let's do that, so the most expensive states to live in are ran by the left. Let me say that one more time the most expensive states to live in are ran by the left new york. California, illinois. You can go on.

I can give you a bunch of states. They ran by the left right dc. All these places, okay, so watch how at first they're all saying, working remote working, remote working, remote working remote, that's the way we do it because we have to be progressive, no problem, this one's going to bite you in the butt. Why is that? Well, you work remote.

I am going to go, live in the state of florida, you're out of new york you're going to pay me my 145, but i'm gon na stay 13 in taxes, 12 in taxes by living in new york. You're right. I also agree and live in remote, so those liberal states lose those people and they go to red states to save taxes. So that's how austin got created austin is the whole story of what you just said is so eventually, eventually, the market will poke holes in everybody's argument, whether it's remote, whether it's taxes, whether it's gas prices, whether it's inflation, whether it's cryptocurrency, whether it's gold, whether it's The market, whether it's equities, whether it's real estate, whether it's commercial, real estate, no matter what you and i try to do, they're going to find those arguments like even oil versus ev right.

Well, i mean we need to get away from oil by 2035. My name is gavin newsom we're going to go to 20. 35. 000.

30. 35. Okay, got it let's, let's actually process that, so these electric vehicles they're, essentially computers, okay, so if we're 100 evs later on in one day, what if things happen like even this whole, you know when you're talking i had a dr pryon who's, the leading expert in Nuclear weapons - and you know weapons of mass destruction - super emp's, that's what he does he's been doing that for the last his entire life - and i said: okay, what does a super emp do? Well, you know what it does i mean if we had a pandemic last. Two years - and it was tragic, look what it did.

The world stopped. People are worried about a nuclear war, we're not even talking about a cyber warfare. A cyber warfare is eventually going to happen, not telling it's going to happen this year or 5 years or 10 years or 20 years or 40 years, but we're eventually going to have a cyber warfare. Nobody expected two years ago for us to have a pandemic where the world shuts down america shut down, airports shut down, we went from 2.5 million flights a day to 50 000 flights a day according to tsa hundred thousand flights a day that dropped from two and A half million two, that's 25 times fewer flights a day right: okay, oil versus ev, if all of a sudden something tragic happens, and these electric vehicles don't work now because they ran based on electricity, millions of people gon na sit there and say man, the good Old days when we had oil, at least we can drive those cars with oil you're gon na see one day people are gon na miss having cars running on oil.

George carlin did a skit years ago, and he said you guys are so worried about the climate change and all this other stuff. He says you realize this world has experienced. You know meteor attacks. It's experienced this.

It's experienced that it's do you think you people are more powerful than the world than the planet. Are you out of your mind how arrogant of the people to think you're really making that big of an impact? Now don't get me wrong? I'm not sitting here saying, let's go smoke, a bunch of cigarettes and put smoke and smog, and all this i'm not saying that. That's not what my messaging is. All i'm saying is whatever argument.

Everybody's arguing, for eventually the market and time is gon na tell you were right or you were wrong and we're being told right now. Many of these policies that they came up with are wrong because america's economy is now paying a price for all those bad policies. I think that the this is the problem with living on um on the western side of the hemisphere, because i came from russia is a really unstable. It has been unstable for a long time, so i don't take stability for granted and obviously you know iran has been known to be a little bit unstable lately.

You know if you go like pre sha uh different. It's the two different countries but paul revolution regard its complete mess like russia, so i think we look at the world and say: well, you know this, so this is very fragile. This is very fluid. Uh.

I wouldn't take this for granted and i think what happened in western europe, especially germany, was the base, i think the worst case of them all where they just said. Well, you know what you know: coal is dirty and the nuclear energy is so dangerous. Let's just buy gas from the russians and just rely 100 in russia and let's just sit around the campfire and and sing kumbaya and everything will be glorious and we all live in this utopian world where everything's gon na be fine and the same thing happens with The with the esg movement in the u.s, we're giving up our energy independence and basically everybody's looking at profit margins and oh, look. How much cleaner it is, how much more efficient blah blah blah blah blah blah.

And i i i think that people now, because what happened with russia, ukraine, the pandemic. Everything is happening right now with opec, how people basically learning what opec really is, which is a cartel people are figuring. Oh, wait! It's not about profit margins. We actually have to have strategic ability to make in our own country.

Have energy and the environment is important, but it doesn't come before these things. First, we got to have to eat. You know with the baby formula thing could happen. This is like people like.

I don't think people in the us realize how fast things can go down the drain and like since the 90s, the us have been basically cutting away every single ability to make domestically shipping everything out since the clinton days. Well, it's cheaper. Let's just ship it out to india or china, whatever the that is right and let's just make it there, it's cheaper now we're paying the price. So, luckily for us - and this is where i think this is the we're kind of lucky - we're not as we didn't - go all ham in this - like the europeans, because the europeans were like well into this thing and we kind of slowly dipped in this.

So we still, you know, we have corn, we have food, we have energy, but the europeans are about to get it hard. This winter, they don't know. What's coming the food shortages, the energy shortages, i think you're right in the money about everything that you just mentioned. So is there a scenario pad like you're, an analytical guy and you don't predict, but you kind of look at it.

Analytically. Is there probable scenario where we get ahead of the oil price and the energy price crisis in the in the next six months to a year uh? So you know the whole conversation they're having hey is there anything we can do about this, and this week biden's? Like there's nothing, we can do about it. This is out of our control. This is out of our control.

This is out of our control uh and to the point where even you know, uh uh msnbc host is saying. Look, you guys got to stop saying this, because this happened after you and the white house adviser to biden said well. You know, gas prices went up a box 70. Since putin, you know, started the war against ukraine.

Fine - let's just say they did but prior to that, how did it go from a buck 80? You know to 3 30.. How did that happen? You came. It went up 50 50 before the russia invasion even happened. So how did why? Did it go up 50? Well, because the day biden took office like no, you know the pipeline this that we're not touching this we're going different route, okay, cool, so policies.

There was a scene in the presidential uh debates. I don't know if you remember when trump's like wait, wait texas, pay attention to what he just said. This may be the most single important thing that just happened right now, listen texas lists and he started mentioning all the states. Did you hear what he just said? Here's what he's going to be doing trump knew what he was talking about in that moment in regards to oil, and this wasn't about like hey, you know, oil are my voters and all this other stuff.

No, that that that's a policy! You get a bad policy, we're paying a price for that policy. Can they figure out a way to bring it back? Yes, there are ways to do it. We've been energy independent. We were energy independent for the first time.

In a long time, we can get that back at a time like this there's many other ways to bring it back, but will they do it during this time around? I don't know because look you know being in too deep when you're in too deep and you try to solve big issues based on band-aids you're, still not going to address the bigger issue, for example. So this whole, you know this article that's been coming up by npr this week, saying you know for the first five months of the year, we've already had 20 246 mass shootings, okay tragic every day. You turn on the news to mass shooting, uvaldi mass shooting, buffalo mass shooting another place. It's as if every day that's all i'm seeing is mass shooting and younger generations, like, oh, my god, mass shooting, naturally machining okay.

So now they're saying we need to increase the age from 18 to 21. cool. Let's just say we say: yes, we need to um uh people that are on medication, mental health, medication, things like that. We need to not let them get the guns.

Fine, okay, do an automatic background check on everybody and prescription fine say we do all of that. Let's just say we do all of that. How many the 246 mass shootings could have been prevented. 5.

10. So, even if you do all of that, it's still not going to prevent 220 of those mass shootings well at least we're making progress. No, you don't understand it's not about we're making progress. Did you see what happened to russia this last week with 850 mcdonald's? Shutting down, i'm sure you saw this and they replaced it with a new restaurant right tasty.

That's it something like that. Did you see what it looked like in the restaurant? I don't know if you've seen it, you watch the video and you're like and they are so happy. The place was packed. There was thousands of people going to these 850 locations that used to be mcdonald's.

What's the point? Here's my point - i don't know why, but russia seems more united for their country and by the way, i'm not sitting here. You know talking about how who putin is he's got an 83 approval rating i'd much rather live in america than you, russia, any day of the week. That's not where i'm going with it, but in america america is not all team america right now, america. He has the privilege that we don't have, which is he controls the narrative, 100 percent yeah i mean and he can fire.

He can do a lot of different things. I mean we saw what happened with some of those guys you're talking about media right on the media side, there's no, there's no more independent media in russian no online on social media. It's all gone, but you look at you. Look at us.

You look at u.s, okay, which we have the discourse going back and forth. You really want to fix this. This gun issue yeah, we do okay, uh bill maher, does a special this week and he says there's four reasons why you know we have issues with guns, mental health. He talks about uh iphone the smartphone, then he talks about movies and music being one of them right.

Okay, so are we willing to touch everything and talk about everything? How many movies do we need to watch where the hero is the person that gets vengeance and revenge, so we've gotten away from values and principles? To me, my biggest concern here is, and by the way, you're talking about oil. What are some old basic money principles? Safe for a rainy day, that's not sexy today stretch the dollar. That's not sexy! Today. If you can't buy it on cash, two times, don't buy it.

That's not sexy! Today, we're no longer talking about hey. You know us is number one in the world in most single family households - 23, that's not a leaders bulletin. We want to be number one in so again. For me, everything we're talking about goes back to we're no longer selling certain values and principles.

There is no values and principles today, we're not talking about how to raise kids, we're not talking about high standards, high expectation, you know, do what you do do. What can you do for your country instead of what your country can we're not talking about those principles? All we're talking about is how about them pour them pour this. For that this is unfair. This is unfair.

This is unfair, listen life is unfair period. Life is unfair, we got, we got to figure out a way to change the values and principles, or else no matter what policies these guys are. These guys are coming up with everything to me is just a band-aid you you feel like. Sometimes i, when i look at this political map, it seems to me that the little bit of the oil issues - i don't think i mentioned this before it's 100 percent biden's fault, but there's a lot of self-inflicted wounds.

When i look at the geopolitics of of how things are running today and shout out to the 1900 people in the chat right now that are with us right now, um is i i look at the map and i say well when trump was in power, so Trump got the importance of saudis and he was basically playing ball with saudis, even though i would not define them as perfect partners, but he was basically saying well. I need these, so i'm just going to play ball and we had good relationship with saudis. Hence we get a good relationship with opec, because saudis pretty much run opec they're, like uh, for those of you who are not familiar with opec, they're like us, to nato, the saudis to the opec. They basically call the shots them in the uae, so but the biologician comes in and here's where i say it's self-inflicted.

This is their blame, this their part in this, and they say well we're pushing on esg we're pushing on a basically you saw the chevron. Ceo came out a few days ago said: i don't think we're ever going to build a refinery again in the us with everything that's going on, it's a five-year investment. I mean these guys are crazy right so and uh on top of it all we're also going to annihilate the relationship with opec by going after the saudis we're not going to back them in yemen, we're going to go after the assassination of hazuki and basically we're Going to ruin the relationship, i mean i'm just wondering like what were they thinking i mean there must have been like a thought process of an analysis of where this thing is headed i mean is. Is it is it that random was there not somebody in the room who said hey? I don't think it's a good idea, ruining the relationship with opec.

I mean at this point i feel like they're trapped, pat, because i'm looking at it what's the alternatives here. So you, russia, is the third biggest producer of oil. You can't trade with them right, so you got. Where could other reserves come from? U.S needs three or four years to ramp up production and that's assuming you can rebuild trust with the chamberlains and exomobiles and assuming that they can do it, so they can go to venezuela under invested for years.

It's going to take years. You can go to iranians, but then you ruin the relationship with saudis even more because they hate each other, so they're. In this. They i feel, like they boxed themselves, into a corner a little bit right now with oil prices, and i feel, like people, don't understand how oil prices basically drive like 70 of inflation, and i that's why, when i saw a video i was like you, you get It because inflation cannot go down when oil prices stay elevated and if it's friction, stays up.

Profit margins of every single business is going to go into the toilet. People lose their jobs, less spending vicious cycle, this noble effect. So so what i wanted to ask you here is like in your video, you kind of give the blueprint, and you say well. This is an opportunity in disguise, so i'd like to get a little bit of i don't.

Obviously people should go and watch the video. I think it's almost at a million views soon to be a million views. Do you mind like sharing your blueprint on how you're approaching this next couple of years, where everything is going to go um, so people can actually learn from kind of your system of trying to make lemonade out of these lemons that are coming right now, yeah, you Know i mean i'll, give you the the good news and the bad news uh in the world of sales um, you know if all of a sudden one of my sales guys starts killing it and he makes a hundred grand a month three months in a row. I was like, oh my god.

What are you doing right now to make a hundred thousand dollars a month, and this is just amazing and then i'll sit there on a zoom and i'll say guys, it's not what he did this month or last month or the month prior to this on. Why he's making the kind of money he's making it's what he did two years ago to prepare for this season? Okay, it takes a while to create momentum to be ready for the right season. There is people that have been waiting for this for a while and they're mentally ready, they're, emotionally ready and they're, financially ready and they're going to capitalize off the next two years, uh and by the way power to those people for staying disciplined and not getting. The timing of when to be greedy right, everybody in the world is greedy, so don't get it twisted.

This isn't about who's, greedy and who's. Not everybody watching this is greedy, every investor is greedy, every the you know, competitor is greedy, but some are greedy. When everybody's greedy, some are greedy when nobody's greedy, the next two years, those who sat around prepared for this and they they made some right choices. Things are going to be on sale, left and right now.

Here's what i mean when i say things are going to be on sale, left and right. I mean you, hear the stories about cards. I bought investments. I made stocks, i bought things i got in where all of a sudden i got overpaid, you know many times in life.

We see people that become extremely successful and we're thinking well that guy's, probably worth 100 million dollars that guy's, probably worth 50 million because he's worth the 50 million dollars he made the money. No, his strategies are worth the money that he made right now. It's all about strategy, so for some who are not prepared for this well, you, you kind of are going to go through it, and it's going to be it's going to be tough everything during this season about building your own reputation first time around when uh 9 11 happened and i had just kind of had the military. I had no clue.

I just got started with morgan stanley dean witter. I just got my series: seven, it's 9. 10, the next day's 9 11. My second day at work and everyone.

I look around every stock broker is afraid and my broker said if you can stick around you're gon na make money. That's when i made my first hundred thousand dollars - and i said i've never had a hundred thousand dollars in savings awesome. Then, when 2006 came - and i saw what was going to happen with the mortgage crisis - no income, no assets, no income, no assets, don't worry about it. How much money did you make 68 000 just put 250 on there? No one cares.

It's no income. No assets stated income seriously, yeah stated income, that's fine! All right! You got four payments. You can pay the 15 year, the 30-year payment, the interest only or the negative amortization. Negative amortization is only 1500 bucks a month.

Wow! That's what i'm going to pay? No because the loan amount's getting bigger every month when you pay less yeah, it's a great program from australia. What a great inventor no we saw. What was coming michael burris saw. A bunch of people saw it well 2008.

Then my savings goes to a million dollars. Okay, then you add another zero and another zero and another. This is the season to add the zeros to your net worth you're gon na see five million dollar guys become 50 million, auto guys you'll see 50 million dollar guys become half a billion auto guys. You'll see half a billion guys become five billion dollar guys it's just that kind of the ones that are prepared for it, but you're also going to see the hardcore margin.

People who are 200 million people become 18 million. Other people you're going to see some of that stuff happen, and there will be some horror stories. Unfortunately, but regardless of what's going on um during crisis, what happens? Is it's the ultimate filtration system, everyone's being filtered out everyone's being exposed, everything's being revealed, everybody who talked a big game, we're gon na find out if their game is a real game or not everybody who was quiet and everybody judged them and all of a sudden They're right people are going to be like whoa. I never thought he was going to be right, but damn that guy's right she's right wow, i for sure thought he was right, but he's wrong.

This is what we're going to learn the next 6 12 24 months and uh. It's going to be weird times it's going to be strange times, but for those that are prepared, they're going to call this the greatest two-year run they ever made for their wealth creation. People 20, 30, 40 years from now, going to look back, they're going to say so much wealth was created during the 2020 to 2024 time. Here's! Why i'll add this last part and i'll turn it over to you somehow what's going on? Okay, i'll turn it over to you is is the following.

So remember when they started printing money and all the going the gold people are like gold's gon na go to five thousand gold's gon na go to five thousand gold's gon na go to five thousand gold. Didn't go to five thousand. Oh bitcoin is gon na go to 250 000 and by the way these are smart people. That's a bitcoin is going to go to 250 000, the more we print it.

It went to 69. bitcoins at 25 right now. Whatever the number is ethereum's down, hey how come that didn't happen. So a lot of the typical knobs that you control that moves this or moves this historically, that has not taken place so either.

History is wrong based on what draws, but it's kind of like saying, the more sugar i eat the more weight i gained, the more fat i've gone through, those knobs been out of whack, so either the knobs are out of whack or we're on so much fake Drugs that our body is making it seem, like those things, don't have side effects, but the moment we get off the drugs, our body's gon na explode and these drugs that we've had the last two years is constant quantitative. Easing the more money being sent the more stimulus being sent the next two years. If we don't go through those drugs, listen um, we're really gon na learn if these markers that we've used for the last 20, 30, 40, 50 60 80 years to somehow see. What's going to happen to the marker, if that's accurate or the last two years was just so fake, so messy that we're all been confused and it's going back to being able to read those markers so next, two years time for me, it's purely market research focus Group type of a thing i personally am just curious to know: what's going to happen the next two years, so you i are you building now your cash positions, basically preparing for so i've been i've been.

I have been so you know i've been wait. I've been waiting for this season, you know, don't get me wrong. My partner, the guy i'm doing money talks with just to know, he's independently wealthy former citadel sold a few companies he's like a 70 cash and he keeps on building and building he's, basically going full on towards a full cash position, we're in a very similar position. So is there a place to hide that, like real estate stock like because to me it seems if go? If you know, if the feet hit, the shin everything goes to, i mean there's no real place to hide other than just uh staying cash, and just i i mean how how do you know like everybody has that i'm not staying in cash? So what are you doing? Cash i'm in cash, but i'm not staying in cash, meaning.

So what's on your shopping list right now, in the next 3 6 12 months, i'm doing dollar cost averaging every time things drop, i'm going in going 5 million here, 3 million. Here: 2 million here - 6 million here 3 million here, but i'm not doing it sudden, i'm doing it slowly, while i'm going in i'm purely dollar cost average, because there's no way you're going to be able to time. When is the bottom? No one knows when it's going to be the bottom and the bottom only lasts a month. The bottom, maybe only three months so, but if you're not consistently going a dollar cost averaging you're not going to capitalize off the bottom.

So if you have a million dollars, don't all of a sudden go by you know because bitcoins who knows if the bitcoin's at the bottom right now some are saying they may crack 12 000. Some are saying to me: crack eight thousand dollars. Some are saying: fifteen thousand dollars, okay, but twenty five thousand still not a bad buy. So maybe, if you can only buy half a bitcoin, buy half a bitcoin and it goes to 23 buy another half a bitcoin.

It goes to 21, buy another half a bitcoin. It goes to 18, buy another half a bitcoin, that's what i'm saying, but i am in a place where i'm going to be participating through the holocaust. Al averaging. There is a very interesting blog, which i follow.

I don't know if you heard about it, it doesn't have a big following it's called market sentiment. They're in stop stack. You should check it out. It's really good.

I think they have like 15 000 followers - very, very small but like on point, and these guys have researched all the crashes since 2000 2008, even the 2020 mini crash, and they compared three strategies. Pat get this one strategy is: go cash, wait until the market gets better jump back in the other strategy, invest as usual, and third strategy is what you describe dca into the weakness. Assuming you pick dry companies, that's a that's a big! If, because that's yeah, that's the biggest variable in this, like we'll talk about in a second and basically assuming you can pick the winners and you're not investing in in the bozos inc right, they've shown that the returns for the dca strategy after one year is a Positive half percent, while the guys who got out lost obviously the entire market and the guys who stayed and lost a little bit less three years and they were leading five years in. They were absolutely annihilating everybody else and after a basically, today, 2022 up 225.

Since 2020., so the strategy of dca into good companies during a pullback is statistically unbeatable. But that's the kicker like how do you find the the ones that you think are going to be the winners? Because i think that's the most difficult part, because there's a lot of stocks out there right now who are saying: oh we're, the next amazon. This is amazon 2000 right we're going to go. That's not the game! I'm playing like right before your zoom! I was on a zoom with a startup with a guy, that's uh, backed by jimmy iveen, and i'm sitting there talking to his pitch deck.

That he's telling me and we may invest into this company right. We had a very good meeting together on the zoom. No, but to me it's, the winners are cheap. Fang is cheap.

Facebook, apple, netflix, google, you know tesla, you know stuff, that's not going away. I'm not sitting here picking the next great facebook. Not talking about that look. When the market crash happened in 0809, ford went to a dollar for the stock.

You could buy ford at a buck. Citigroup was a buck. I mean these were so cheap. It was insane so we're not talking about picking the next amazon order.

Remember when oil was zero negative, that was a negative yeah yeah. So you know we're not talking about that. All i'm saying is a lot of stuff is going to be cheap. Real estate is going to be cheap, cheaper.

You know even collectible cards, it's going to be cheaper, nfts, cheaper, that's and by the way, it's very important that you're highlighting this to understand this part as well. I'ma tell you this is the risk i'm taking. I am taking a risk, but this is the risk. I'm taking because if nothing happens and dow goes to 70 000, i lose a lot.

Do you, you obviously understand what i'm saying. If, if i, if i'm, if i'm wrong - and you know how sometimes you look at the investment company act of america - their mutual fund from 1934 - it's done 12.3 percent. If you would have stayed them, but if you would have taken it out on the top 10 days, the 12.7 percent would have become 9.2 percent. If you were to take top 20 days, you would have been only at seven percent, so it's better to leave in the market and never take it out.

Okay, sure i i i can't see that argument. All i'm saying is, i am taking a risk, but my risk is a different kind of a risk right now: okay and based on the markers that i'm banking on, i think a lot of things are going to be on sale, the next 24 12 to 24 Months and then, when we do part two again tom two years from now, i'm gon na say: hey tom man, i got ta tell you, i was wrong or tom, it kind of worked out good tom, or i was about to invite you in the month. You give me two years, but what i'm saying is - or i may say tom - we're still going through it, because we don't know how long this thing's going to last. I think you hit the nail on the head.

So there's this statistic running around from bank of america: they analyze all the stock market, pullbacks every single bear market. By definition, a bear market is at 20 and lower over the past 100 years and if, if they quantify how long on average a bear market lasts and the average is, as you mentioned - you mentioned this intuitively before, but it's 10 months. So if we go back to december the center rally, so we're pretty much right now at the six month mark another four months of paying, based on the statistic alone, what people are not understanding? I think people are misunderstanding. The statistic - and this is what you just said right now is the end of the bear market - is not the beginning of the bull market.

It's two separate things. You can end the bear market and be in territory for another couple of years. Look at 2. 000.

It's been years until you started climbing back up, so i wouldn't it's really important to understand these nuances, but i mean i wanted to share with you, like my methodology, how idca and compare it to yours. So i heard you mention on your podcast palantir, which i'm a huge fan of everybody knows so the way i look at it and why i'm so bullish like on party for example, is i say okay, what do i want the dca into right now? Well, first of all, i i'm a guy, i'm a money, guy, i'm a financial guy. So i look at the. I don't want to see any debt on the books.

I want to see plenty of cash. I want to see sustainable cash flow, positive, free cash flow, high percentage. I want to see good tam. I want to see nice growth pricing power.

I want to see everything that basically makes it a non-discretionary product. Basically, everything that this kind of detaches me from being dependent on the shittiness of this market, i want to see lack of dependence on oil prices on commodities on on on stuff that basically are going to go through the roof right now and like for me. Like volunteers checks all these boxes, but uh brad, i know you got to go soon and shout out to the 2500 people that showed up for this. What's kind of your methodology of sifting through all this garbage right now, because there's only like about two percent, three percent of these companies gon na make it out a lot of those okay.

How do you? How do you analyze your winners right now? How do you pick them? Yeah, i mean palantir they're not going away anytime soon. You know what they what they're built on uh on many different measurable sides. Uh.