Good morning guys welcome back to the channel. I appreciate you guys tuning in with me this morning. Um, maybe not the happiest morning. Stocks are down crypto's down gold's down inflation's up gas prices are up.

I still can't quite understand what president biden's saying half the time. So i'd say things are looking up. I i think they're looking pretty good, i don't. I don't really see any problem here, huh.

So, let's get into the stock chart. Let's see if we can make some sense of this. Today's video, i will try to make quickly. Um, but there is quite a bit to cover uh in my opinion, so we're going to dive into it.

I hope that this is quick and it doesn't bore you to death. I don't think it will all right, let's get into it, so we know that we've had this big sell-off. So first, let's start with a moving average system. We're going to start here on this chart.

You guys know this chart. We talked about this chart. You had a bearish cross here, and that was thursday. I talked about it that day.

I believe it could have been friday. I don't quite remember for sure, but either way we get a bearish cross um. We had been recently going through consolidation, so you're getting bearish crosses, bullish crosses bearish crosses bulls, crosses blah, blah blah blah, but not any good, follow through in either one of those crosses, and that's just because the markets were consolidating in a time of consolidation. Moving averages are going to cross all the time and not going to give you follow through and again blah blah blah blah.

That's the way the world is not much, you can do about it, but here's. The other concept is that you can see right when this crosses and the market trusts it. It goes right, so anyways we get a bearish cross there. The reason i'm talking about that is because right now we're selling down in the long term and the short term.

If you're going to try to be bullish, just know that it's not because you're on a swing, long move right. You you're on a bearish cross here, so in the short term, if you're trying to be bullish, it's because it's a counter trend bounce that you expect to get sold back into further, to be oversold, then to bounce until it creates higher lows we get across and Then we have another rally, you could say all right so for now everything bullish that happens is a counter trend, long bounce. Until we get the blue back over the red okay there's ways, you might be able to identify that the major shift and trend has changed prior to this. But for most the easy, simple way would just be saying: hey blue over red, we're back on sort of a more bullish potential cross, bullish momentum, etcetera.

So everything right now is bearish. With long bias, counter trend, bounces till the blue moving average crosses the run. All right now, let's move into the actual chart here for those of you uh that follow channel and twitter. You guys know that i've talked about a price of 364 for the spy for a long time.

Now: okay, we're not there but again we're getting close as we've gone through our next bearish down move after our previous rally, um. So right now we're trading at 380 right, which basically means we have another 16 to go down, or so before we get to a price of 364, which is like right there, okay, so i i do expect this bottom gets taken out and you're going to see The market fall off into 364. and that, if that were to happen, your next bounce is going to happen anywhere from 364 into like this 350 area. Um, arguably i mean realistically it's anywhere from negative three deviations to negative four is where the next rally bounce would happen.

Just like you saw here down into the blue rally up down in the blue rally up sold off we're almost to the blue so into the blue. And if things really panic, then i expect for you to go into the purple and then you'd have a rally from there. So it's my expectation that the bottom gives out we're going to sell off into 364. all right um.

Now, just a little bit ago, we had talked that you're not going to be swing, long bullish until you get the blue moving average across the red moving average, all right and so another way to kind of think about. That would also be saying it like this that um, this green kind of area this like zone, that was a that - was a breakdown okay, so until the market is actually back over this, you wouldn't really be swing long right, so you could counter trend up to Here and then still sell down, so you wouldn't be truly truly long, biased until you get all the way through that blue. So when i was saying earlier that everything is a counter trend bounce until the blue moving average crosses the red um that that cross would probably happen if the market rallied back over these green levels. So that's why i was kind of saying if you could get markets back over here and crossing above yes and you get more of a swing up rally, but until that happens, you're just counter trend, then to back down so in the short short term.

The most recent breakdown was actually this green line, so for like the intraday use, it would be right now you could only be bullish up two three like 83 20 um and then bearish unless you broke over kind of concept, so for right now, you're pretty much Bearish this market, unless you come back over 380 330, then you might start to question that you're on the wrong side of a move or we're just gon na go through maybe more of a bounce um. So now, let's look at like a five day. Five minute chart on both charts here to get more of a feel for the market. Okay, so earlier today i did kind of post on twitter.

I thought the markets would pop back to three 324 pre-market uh to do another retest. We didn't do that. We're kind of pushing away so far um, so the reality is today i think you're bearish. I think you still stay on the bare side and i kind of thought we would have a bullish pop.

Then we would go bearish because we're on two big gap down days now right we had um. Sorry we had this gap down here right or wasn't that a gap down day yeah we kind of gapped down here that day, then we're on a gap down here and it's not typical. You get two gap down and follow through days. So nonetheless, i was thinking we might watch for a bounce, then a short, but either way play whatever the way the market goes.

So i think overall, we'll see prices into this zone pretty soon anywhere from 375 to 370ish 369-ish. I think we're going to be seeing prices pretty soon um, so if the market goes through just a straight up sell-off today, i think you expect it go to here right like max so it'd, be here, and then you know into that zone. If we don't sell off today, then obviously the market should rally back to 383.24 to start and if we're over three to three 24 and holding, then we might go through sort of a short term gap fill to the 390s before selling off. More so really the biggest two outcomes.

I see like best case scenario. Long would be somehow market rallies of 390. best case scenario, short market, somehow rallies or sorry. It goes bearish all the way down to like 360, 988.

370.. Okay. So those are the two like best outcome possibilities that can happen right there. Those two arrows okay, but how it actually unfolds is more like okay, does the market pop up retest our 383 24s fail to go long, then we roll short, and then we go to 370s.

All right, if we are going to go to 390s well, we'd have to go along to 383.24, then we'd have to get above it probably hold above it before we can attack that next level. So that's kind of what i'm visualizing in my mind so either way. I think you're going to stay bearish, obviously until you get a new bullish cross or until the market enters the blue to the purple zone, so until the market actually gets into this zone, i don't think you're going to get a strong, strong rally. I think everything is counter trend bounce to get sold into so i'll be playing bearish.

But if, at any point i see that the market wants to rally up a little bit, i will flip and start trying to target up to 383.24 so um. I think that's pretty good for where we're at there. Let's take a look at the nasdaq, because the nasdaq has a couple levels that are uh coming up. So let's take a quick look here.

Sorry, let me adjust this there. We go all right, so the nasdaq will kind of help. You see why uh pre-market levels have held where we did so the spy there was no pre-market level there, but on the nasdaq there was one right here, so you can kind of see we're holding like right there. I've been trying to so once this gives out or if it gives out correctly and strongly, then we would expect 275 55 would be the next target down right and if the nasdaq falls to here, but then can't bounce and hold well and starts to give out This then we expect we go to 270 123, which would be there, market can't hold and bounce and we sell off.

Then we probably are looking at 375 on the spy yeah. So that's kind of how how i i see it unfolding is uh. First, targets down: you would see probably 275 area on the nasdaq that doesn't bounce since the next one down, which was like 270, what i mean so 71 23., so um yeah, that's, i guess all i'll say for now i'll see you guys on next video. Everybody take care and have a great morning,.