Hey everyone kevin here, so i've been getting a lot of questions, especially from course members. When am i gon na flip, because obviously inflation's not transitory anymore? Obviously, it's not going down okay! So let's go wind! It back a little bit blend it back a little bit and talk about this. Let's answer: first: when do we flip and and and b? Does that make sense? Now? First, when do you flip? You flip, in my opinion, uh when a you're a little or b, you think there's going to be a wage price spiral and the fed can't get inflation under control. If you think the fed will not get inflation under control or and or we're going to get a wage price spiral and or third condition, uh, you can combine these in whatever levels that you prefer one.

Third, each priority: whatever we have inflation expectations get out of control. Now, inflation expectations with the consumer did just take up a tenth of a percent, and they will likely, after this last cpi report, take up even more. The bond market's expectations are also up we're at about five year break even of 3.16. That is, however, 15 below the inflation expectations we had in march when we're like.

Oh, my gosh, the fed's going to run, pull us right, and that was also in january, although uh, the breakevens went much higher after the war anyway, so those are conditions that are, i think, very reasonable, to evaluate hey, look if the fed can't get inflation under Control inflation, break evens and consumer expectations for inflation explode and we have a wage price spiral. You do not want to own anything. You will owe nothing and be happy. You will have just cash and you'll be happy.

That's that's, then. Okay, that's that. Where are we now? If we're not there, who knows, maybe we will be it's entirely possible that the fed will try to fight inflation down just like they did in the late 70s, where they try to fight inflation down and guess what happens? It stays elevated for six years for six years, they're telling us inflation is transitory until finally, paul volcker, wakes up and says effort pull the rug, we're gon na set interest rates above where inflation is, and so what happened. Boom massive crash inflation's at 16 to 18 percent fed funds rate up to about twenty percent.

Okay, now you get volcker massive crash, hey, you could ride through it, but it's really painful. Today's market didn't actually hit new lows after the slow latest cpi report. A lot of people like having this latest cpi report is not as good. This is bad, it's not going down, but we've also been saying on the channel that we don't actually expect inflation to go down really until probably the september release of cpi, which would be uh the the august figures right the month before that figures, and so that's Not to try to make an excuse to say, like there's, still reason to be happy.

No. There are plenty reasons to be gloomy here, like this sucks. So it's a crop market to be investing in everything, hurts everything's, painful bankruptcies are coming uh i'll, be doing a video later, where we talk about identifying bankruptcies like what the hell went wrong over at revlon, a company. That's been around for 90 years now.

Just go! You know now rumored to file bankruptcy stocks down like 60 freaking percent in a day plus after hours. It's absolutely insane, but the point is: we've got to monitor the conditions for inflation and align them with the fed's expected response, because we know the fed knows their actions have a delay and the last thing they want is inflation actually to come down towards the later Period of the year, which would be uh, you know the q3 q4 and all of a sudden, we start seeing disinflation, but at the same time, uh. The federal reserve has over hyped and the impacts of the federal reserve's tightening occur. At the same time as we start seeing bankruptcies layoffs, which then lead to a worsening spiral and ultimately foreclosures, that would be really bad.

So what what am i personally doing i'm still buying? I know that sounds crazy. I know it sounds crazy and people make fun of me all the time like kevin you're gon na do this. Inflation is transitory people you're like yeah. Eventually, inflation will go down.

Eventually it will go down, and so i can't say that i'm bullish today that oh, my gosh stocks are going to the moon next week. I don't think that i've said it before and i'll say it again. This year is going to suck. This is the best year to learn.

This is a learning year. You pay your dues. Now you learn how to buy real estate, so you can go from zero to millionaire and actually build wealth, buying real estate and then getting into stocks in that order. Most people here get into stocks and then potentially never consider real estate, which is a big mistake and check out the programs link below i'm building your wealth.

I'm not effing leaving i'm buying this because i'm gon na look back in 10 years and i'm gon na be like damn. I wish i had more money to buy more while we were in the middle of that recessionary, game.