You you well, you nailed it on the name, um yeah. It has and now look. As i said earlier, we were bracing for something uh that had the potential to be an unfriendly number. Every month the government is telling us inflation is at eight percent.

Now the reality is that they stray up lying utilities, gasoline grocery prices. All things you cannot do without are much higher than eight percent more expensive than they were just six months ago, they're, probably double digits more expensive. We feel that every single month in the gas pump in the grocery store now the government likes to remove food and energy out of their core inflation calculation, they're too volatile to be meaningful right, but honestly for everyday americans. It doesn't matter we care about those items.

They have a massive impact on our daily lives. Their purchasing power quality of life - i mean saying it doesn't matter - is a straight-up insult to every single american. Now remember remember when they told you that it's transitory for months and months, remember then they change it to well. You know march is going to be the worst of it, and things will only get better after march.

Well, this is june and i think we can all agree they're full of now they're down to the last bag of tricks, the core inflation. Let's pretend things are all right and sing kumbaya around the campfire, while the country is going to dear politicians. Please hear me out on this five dollars per gallon. The 30 increase in grocery prices is the definition of a living hell for most americans.

The everyday american is not driving a fancy car. He doesn't have a cushy job. He probably doesn't make a lot of money, but he doesn't ask for a lot. He doesn't need more than that.

He wants to go to work, go home, have a beer have sex with his wife, have some fun with his kids and then go to work again, and do it every single day and mind their own business and in return the only thing we ask of you. Their politicians is just don't lie to us, and yet it's still too much to ask it seems because right now you are lying to us about inflation and you're, doing it. For multitude of reasons, which i will explain in this video because i won't expose what's actually going on here - you're lying about inflation, because it's a political move, that's reason number one. You basically want to make yourself look good for the midterms for politics, blah blah blah politicians lying about how great are to get re-elected, not surprising, but i think even the worst of it is coming from the monetary policy.

The government in the united states pays about one trillion dollars in social security benefits every single year. There's 65 million americans who depend on it. These are the people who need it. The most old age survivors, disability insurance.

They need this money to survive now. Of course, you guys don't want to index a higher inflation into these payments because you don't want to pay more in social security benefits. So basically, the people who are getting the brunt of inflation is the people who can't have a voice, because it's the easiest thing to do. They don't have a lobby, they don't have a voice old age, survivors, disability.

All these benefits are supposed to be indexed to inflation, but it's predicated on the assumptions that you won't lie about the rate of inflation, so these people actually have food to eat and yet you choose to screw them over by lying about inflation. So you can actually not with the people that can hurt you the most the strong lobbies, the union workers. You know exactly what i'm talking about the third reason is they absolutely have no solution to this. You just heard me look right now in the us.

We're dealing with anywhere from 15 to 17 to 18 realistic inflation, not the eight percent they're telling you, but let's assume it's eight percent, just for the sake of the discussion, even at eight percent. In order to battle this level inflation, you probably need about 12 of interest. That's according to the taylor rule, go look it up now. Here's the problem! Right now, we've dug ourselves into a massive debt.

Our debt is now 140 percent of our gdp. We owe 40 more than what we make and we're currently paying about 300 billion dollars per year in interest and that's with almost zero percent interest, so every single percent they raise interest will cost the government another 250 billion dollars per year. This is money that has to come from somewhere, but where, obviously, they can't print more money, that's going to lead to more inflation. We saw what money supply does to inflation.

Obviously they cannot cut spendings. They're democrats, i mean they're, not really good, at cutting spending. In fact, all they do is talk about increasing spending. Now, theoretically, you could raise taxes, but who are you gon na tax, the individuals they're already taxed to the brim? You absolutely have no more place to tax you've been overworked and overtaxed for decades they can go for the multinational corporations that are hiding money abroad and there's a lot of them out there.

You know exactly what i'm talking about you could, but why would you they have a strong lobby? They have a lot of clout. You don't have with the people who are actually donating to you right. So that's why they leave these companies alone and if you can't print more money, if you can't reduce spending - and you can't raise taxes, that basically means you absolutely cannot raise interest rates below a few percentage points just to show people that you're trying to battle inflation. So they got ta lie to you that things are peachy in order for them not to actually face the truth, which is they cannot raise interest more than a couple of percent.

So, what's the plan here well you're not gon na, like this, the only way to kill inflation is for them to destroy the man, and you can't do that, while killing the economy for a while at least so they're gon na lie and let inflation destroy margins. Like it did to target and walmart people will lose jobs, they will have less money to spend. Demand will suffer, there's gon na be less revenue, that's going to lead to less jobs and a vicious spiral ending in negative gdp. So if we are headed to a stock market crash in the recession, how long is this thing going to last and how we can actually make money of it? Well, for the past 100 years we had the great depression of 1929 and it lasted for four years.

During that time, gdp went down by like 30, the dow jones crashed 72 percent and i don't think we're headed there. Now it's a very unique set of circumstances. This was 100 years ago. Things are really different.

Now, however, we are headed to something like 2008 and here's the thing about 2008, excluding the great depression. This is the second biggest recession we ever had and it lasted about 18 months leading to 4.3 reduction in gdp and the s p 500 went down by like 37 dow jones 31 and we officially came out of it in june 2009. So that's the framework. This is the good news.

The good news is that recessions generally don't tend to last very long on average, they last about 8 to 18 months. Now, here's the thing if you just lost your job because of a recession that can feel like an eternity, and i get you, but in this video i also want to show you how it can also be an opportunity. Despite what i just said, here's how you do it. First of all, you got ta focus on fundamentals when you actually invest during recessionary times.

This is actually a good time to increase exposure to blue chip companies with well established businesses, great margins and all that jazz. Now, on the flip side, you know any company that doesn't fit that profile got ta, go now the way you actually, i guess, screen for companies right now for investment. During your session, you look at a few things. Number one.

Profitability profitability is really important right now. Profitability is basically how good are the margins. How good is the pricing power pricing? Fire is. Basically you know it's a great inflation mitigator.

If you think about it. A company with high pricing power is basically able to roll over cost to customers, and you know pricing power is basically, if you think about it, to the core. It's a combination of how discretionary is the spending and how good is your competition? So that's kind of the first thing you got to look at basically a lot of these businesses that are completely unprofitable and don't make a lot of sense will get wiped out now, for example, for a software business, the cost of producing additional licenses is almost non-existent, While you know manufacturing has almost a straight line of cost increases, so it's going to be a lot of different games. You can do with it to find the perfect company now look.

I can give you examples of companies that will be battered in the next few years: low pricing power, low margins airlines welcome to hell. You know, there's a lot of these now. The second thing you're going to look at is the working capital efficiency. How much capital your business requires to basically operate.

You know production companies they're going to require a lot of inventory or equipment or infrastructure companies are going to require a lot of machinery. You get where i'm going with this. For example, a company like snowflake that doesn't have a lot of capex requirements and is running a digital product actually will do better during inflation, especially since they have what is like a digital commodity, and the next thing is cost of capital. How much does it cost for you to raise money either it's debt or is equity and look.

The playing field here is not even even at higher interest rates. Different companies have different risk profiles, which means they pay different fees for loans and equity, which means they have different valuations different interest payments. So, for example, you look at a company with riskier industries. They'll have to pay more for debt.

For example, you know businesses who always need semi trucks, so companies who build semi trucks, there's not a lot of industry type risks, but, let's say zoom. You know they have a lot of industry risk. You know they almost got wiped out by microsoft teams. Maybe they will now, you got to look at cash flow stability.

Now is the cash flow, predictable or unpredictable? That's another risk profile. Geographical risk, you know, is your revenue coming from ukraine or other countries in jeopardy? Why are your employees? Where is your money coming from right? Look if you're, seeing a company right now with negative free cash flow and you operate in a risky business and you're exposed to geographical risks. You're, probably not going to survive this next two three four years: it's going to be a very bumpy ride, so this is the sort of company you got to avoid the bottom line here. Is you probably want to look for companies with low debt high cash non-discretionary products in the market, with not a lot of competition, which means high pricing power, high margins leading to profitability and high revenue growth? And if you can find a company that is not requiring a high working capital and is not exposed at all to energy prices or commodity prices, that's even better now long term dca is a winning strategy.

Once you identify, whatever company fits the profile, i just gave you. I know it's not going to be easy, but that screening process is going to give you a couple of winners and dca dollar cost averaging into these winners is a good long-term strategy. I'm saying 5, 10 15 years. You know the old saying time in the market is more important than timing the market.

Well, it's true. It's literally impossible for anyone to predict the market, so staying focused staying in the market is the most important thing. Basically, if you're just dca and holding long term for the next 10 years, you eliminate emotions out of the whole game. Just going straight up, analytical and look crashes are always going to happen every 10 years, or so we have a crash, they might be extremely violent, but holding your ground doubling down into your best conviction.

Stocks. Assuming you pick, the right companies is always the long-term strategy to follow. The other thing right now would be to increase diversification. You want to manage risks now more than trying to get rich.

Now you got to focus on the biggest winners, but in times of crisis, in times of recession, it's wise to expand the strategy to mitigate your risk. You know it's just normal. Spreading money around across different sectors is not going to make you a rich guy. It's not lambo money, but it will give you stability and will mitigate a lot of the market risk we're seeing right now.

The idea is basically in times of crisis, you know money has to go somewhere, so while some parts of your portfolio will drop heavily, you know other parts may do much much better. That's why owning a portfolio that has a lot of exposure to the s? P. 500, for me, is always a winning strategy, but of course, there are other ways to diversify your portfolio, such as crypto, and that's a good chance to mention our sponsor for today. Ftx us fdx us is a us regulated crypto exchange partnering with tom, brady, steph, curry and trusted by millions of users with ftx us.

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You got to be prepared mentally emotionally, because market crashes and recessions and inflationary times you know they're going to come, but you never know exactly how it's going to feel like until you're in the heat of battle. You know you can train as a soldier all your life, but you never know how you're going to react and they're going to be right there and then the moment they train pilots, for you know a situation where they fall into captivity and that training is kind Of brutal, to be honest, and in that training they really put them through the ringer. Now it's obviously not as scary or as dangerous or as intense. You know, as actually falling into captivity, but there are stories about pilots that actually went through this training and fell.

The captivity who tell how it felt familiar how they were mentally kind of prepared for the insanity of the situation and why they didn't freak out because they were kind of already emotionally ready. For this moment. Of course, it was still an ordeal and a horrible experience, but bracing for this mentally and emotionally allowed them to be more calm and collected in the moment and be analytical and not emotional. Now the same thing will happen to you.

If you prepare for the insanity, that is to come, it's going to allow you to make analytical decisions and avoid stupid, knee-jerk emotional reactions, and this can play out in two scenarios. It can either be very scary, or it can seem like an opportunity now. If you actually understand the companies you invest in their business model, their portfolios, their strategy, their management. When the crash comes, it's no longer scary, it's actually kind of an opportunity for you to get the cheapest stocks out of your portfolio to go even lower on your cost basis and look, i said it before, i'm going to say it again during the bull run Of 2020 2021 warren buffett set on record amounts of cash, and everybody was like well, the midas man has lost his touch.

Well now you saw exactly what happened: everything crashed and now he's spending like crazy he's literally living his own quote: everybody's greedy, i'm fearful when everybody's fearful i'm greedy and right now the fear index is probably the highest we've seen it in a while. Now. Let me know below, if you agree with me, if you disagree with me, if you have any questions, a huge shout out for the channel members and the patrons, if you want to support this channel, what we do here sign up below the link is going to Be for the five dollar membership either on patreon or on youtube. I really appreciate it i'll see you next video, you.