What's going on guys welcome back to the channel, i appreciate you guys tuning in got a couple things we need to cover here in today's video. So hopefully we can hash out all those uh things. I would like to talk about quickly without taking up too much of your time, so first we're going to start with talking about yesterday's recommendation on the market. So yesterday we had said watch the market's long bias until we get the bearish cross.

Okay. So, first i'm going to pull this chart down really quickly, just quickly and we'll come back to it, but you can see yesterday we did get the bearish cross, nine below the red. So until we get that we're not truly thinking swing, short or new trend down. Bearish, of course we can have pullback days, but until we get that cross that we just got yesterday, we don't start being optimistic about, say.

Maybe a new trend or a bearish trending short play all right. Now, we'll probably come back to this chart so give it a sec. Okay, now from yesterday we did say watch a market's long bias. Okay, i want to give some context to that, so you guys are uh more aware of how i'm watching the market and how the day might shake out and so on so forth.

So first things first, each morning like today, i would tell you hey guys. We should be watching, say this level here or we're going to be watching this level down here and let's go to the nasdaq. You know, i might say, hey guys. We are watching for maybe long targets to there into here.

Okay, so that's today the market is not open. You can see how those levels are, but if you go to yesterday's open, you will see that the market updates at open and the level changes. So yesterday we are recommending - maybe watching up to like this three, like maybe that's three 1370 right there, because that's where that line was at and when the market updates, you can see it actually adjusts and comes lower okay, so at market open instead of the price Being here maybe you know the long target we talked about trend updates into the open and now the trend is here right at 3. 12.

22.. So you will see the spy in the nasdaq, mainly the nasdaq, pushes out of the gates into the first long target. Yesterday's video would have said long targets, probably around 3 14 70, but by the time the market open and the system updates. The long target becomes 3, 12, 22 right and there's not a whole lot.

I can do about that uh during the pre-market session. When i make these videos - okay, so um yesterday going into the open, you know we had said you know, watch markets, long bias, we're kind of watching upwards blah blah blah. You know in the only way the markets can continue to go up. Is they have to break through their statistical probabilities and hold above okay? They have to go through their statistical probabilities and hold above so yesterday, the spy and the nasdaq they go long bias.

You know for the whole morning, pre-market um and into the open a little bit and they get to their first long targets that we had suggested, though they updated a bit and really couldn't maintain above them, and so from that point forward, i stopped watching the market's Long bias, by about you, know obviously right there and pretty much into that top once i noticed we couldn't get over and sustain over. Okay, so all said and done, markets have a bearish day. Okay, nasdaq pushes out the gates hits first, statistical probability on upside, finds, resistance can't go above, and then it shoots straight down to the next statistical probability right, then, eventually, you break below it around the bottom go back, retest and basically right back to it. Okay, so again, yesterday was a long recommendation, though the long didn't work do apologize about that, but wanted to give some more context as to why it failed, and you know if you were watching the markets long yesterday, um how you could have recognized they weren't going To be long pretty quickly, and that was pretty much once they were sustaining below statistical probabilities, okay, so bringing this chart back over all right, so we do have a bearish cross all right now, the last time we did get a fake out.

It was kind of right here, but it was very, very, very slight okay. So if i zoom in here you can see the market blue cross below the red, but we went up right, so you might be seeing yourself well how reliable is when the blue cross? The red it's going to go, bearish! Okay, we all know nothing's perfect, but this is a very simple, straightforward approach: that a lot of times is correct, but yeah you can see. We had blue cross below the red. The market did not go bearish, okay and i'm going up now.

The reason i'm showing you. This is because we could have this sort of scenario again and i want to make sure you guys are prepared for it. In the event, we don't go into a bearish move. Okay, so when we got this cross blue below the red, you will notice that the candles still crept upwards and started maintaining over the moving averages.

So, at the same time, the moving average may have crossed down the price was trending upwards, a bit and maintaining above the moving averages there right. So when that's happening, the price is probably going to continue up and shortly thereafter the moving average will adjust, because it's slightly a lagging indicator and it will come back over okay, so it'll take you time to kind of recognize it. You know and get used to. Maybe using this sort of moving average system, but what we have here again is a cross right, so we did get a bearish cross to the downside.

So what you're looking for to get the continuation down is? Does the market the price action and the candles start sustaining below the moving average? So there's a good chance if this is going to be a bearish push off this cross, that we'll see some sort of retest on the price of these moving averages. So i'm going to go ahead and i'm going to add these two red lines which are right over top of those moving averages. That'll probably move a little bit going into the open, but that'll be pretty close for now and let's see where those are at in relation to today's price action. Okay, so you can see we're holding above those lines right.

So, even though the market's not open right and these candles aren't, you know populating on this time frame, chart that i'm showing you here. We have manually added support or resistance lines right over top of those moving averages. Okay, so going into today, if the bearish move is gon na work, you would most likely see the price sustaining below these lines and then trying to roll down okay, and if it's not, then you would most likely see the price sustaining above those levels and then What's going to happen, is that's going to cause that blue to come right back over the red and that would be like a false cross? Okay, so, going into today, given the uh, the moving averages crossing can be a bearish signal you want to uh. Oh, is this not oh, that sucks it's not working.

I like moved it a certain way. Oh there we go thank gosh, hey when that happens, all right so going into today, you want to uh you pretty much want to see the market sustain over these. These red lines to continue going up, okay, otherwise going below them, would be. You know, kind of a bearish bear sign.

Okay, so that's first all right now, if we look at the nasdaq, you will see. The nasdaq is also has a statistical probability level right there. The negative 1 y w so pretty much below this means the nasdaq is arguably taking out the pre-market support. This is a pre-market support.

Okay. So what we're watching for is? Does the nasdaq slide below this and does the spy start to creep below here and then we go into another bearish move? Okay, so let's say markets do go bearish. We would probably first target down to stay somewhere around 405. 30.

Arguably, all the way down to 401.57 that would be kind of crazy, because that would be a thousand point day down. Don't really see that, but you never know so again. This is the way it works markets over this and over this, we target up to this level, 415 32 spy to 312 nasdaq markets sustained below these red lines, market sustains below the nasdaq level. Then we look down to 405 30 on the spy, but regardless whatever direction, the market goes um and again, remember how i said that these levels update a little bit going into the open right.

So you see how this one updated a little bit uh yesterday, this one didn't even update at all but bottom line, regardless of which way the market goes. This is going to be the target. This is going to be the target. They always are.

Okay, it's just a matter of which direction the markets pick and want to follow through with again the statistical probabilities. I want to say a hundred times, or i would say 10 times out of 10 times get hit. I would say there has not been one trading day over the past year that i have not witnessed a statistical probability get touched okay, so i can guarantee you right now that that, or that is gon na get hit today, right we're already trading on a statistical Probability today, right, we've already hit one right there, but bottom line this one or that one's gon na get hit today. So it's just a matter of the markets, picking direction either above or below these two red lines, which are really the moving averages and the nasdaq figuring out its direction uh on the statistical probability.

So with that being said, i will catch you guys on the next video everybody take care and have a great rest of your day.