There is only one solution and that's of course, listening to another video by me kevin welcome back everyone. I cannot even go on a single vacation without the market crashing. I go to cabo the beginning of december. The market starts crashing december.

6 was a disaster uh december or then january 24th to 28th. I go on a birthday vacation market, just absolutely crashes. Now, i'm in italy complete disaster. You know what it is it's when we don't have live streams, the market crashes.

It's that simple. It's that simple! All right folks, let's answer some things. So first most crowded bets right now: hawkish fed bets shorting treasuries, put options, you name it and going into u.s reopening place. These are the most crowded plays right now, usually crowded means you have downside in the future, but temporary safety least crowded bets right now: chinese metals, global risk assets like crypto and tech and u.s financials like uh, obviously fintech and banks.

You know obviously crypto we're seeing a complete disaster there uh as well. This is now the fifth month of pain. The s p 500 has just entered a bear market and one by one investors are capitulating. Here's the order in which investors have capital capitulated capitulated is throwing in the towel paper.

Handing okay, first, systematic investors capitulated in january. These are methodical traders. I actually consider myself part of this group. These are people who look at data and say no.

No, no! No. We have bad news ahead of us, doesn't matter if we're already down a little bit we're out and that's what i did in january - hedge funds capitulated in february and march. That's actually, when i rebought, unfortunately a little bit too early. But that's when my indicators of wanting to be out of the market actually u-turned no wage price spiral right.

That did not mean we were out of the woods and i was prepared for that, but they're definitely not out of the woods uh, but the no wage price spiral on paul volckery. Those things i still do not expect, at least according to my method. Mutual funds started capitulating in april, and retail traders right here in may are tentatively still somewhat holding, but they tend to be the last cohort to paper hand and today's dump in tesla stock. In my opinion is a sign that retail capitulation ore and retail margin calls are beginning.

This is when, when we go through that entire list of capitulation, that is when we hit what is known as complete investor capitulation. It usually occurs during an era of complete peak fear and it's a disaster. No there's no easy way for me to show what i'm about to show, but one of the things that can help lead to complete fear is a disaster like what we have going on in china. Look at this folks.

You see all those people on this phone standing on the side of the road here in shanghai. I've not been able to verify this video, but i'm told this is a video from shanghai people trying to get the hell out of shanghai, because the press is not able to accurately showcase how bad the damn lockdowns are. People aren't able to get food and they're like yeah. Just get me the hell out of here that doesn't help tesla stock either anyway.

The trend right now, folks, if you are holding, is your enemy. The median decline after the s p enters a bear. Market is 30 to 35 percent. S p just entered a bear market today, down 20 percent, partially drugged down by tesla's, like 10 decline.

Folks, at this point, we are beyond pricing in the federal reserve. We have been pricing in the federal reserve really since about the zero percent babies. We are well below the zero percent phibi's right now, and that is because we are the rubber band that has been strong so deep, we have been pulled so deep. Now, thanks to fear and pandemonium and unfortunately, there's still more bad news ahead, the housing market, the housing market, can lead a business cycle and you all know my thoughts on housing market.

It's next, but right now we're having a very interesting rotation. 10 years are actually down today, which means mortgage rates are down today, the 10 years sitting at just under 2.8 percent. In my opinion, this is because we're actually seeing institutional investors flee to safety in bonds. They flee to safety and bonds.

Price of bonds goes up, yields go down. In my opinion, those are the same traders that will also flee back into stocks, whether it's through their algorithms or manually, once we actually start seeing some form of a actual rebound in stocks. So, in my opinion, seeing those these yields fall and stocks plummet the way they are, it's actually just a sign that we probably have retail capitulation. We have that is the last phase of capitulation, that we need uh to get to peak, fear, uh and and then eventually we see a rotation back in and the first ones to come back in usually the systemic traders, the model traders, the hedge funds, the institutions, Retail tends to be slowest to get back in, unfortunately, uh anyway, i holding strong as hard as it is, holding strong and adding china.

However, big problem, china's uh people's bank of the people's bank of china, uh on well today cut its benchmark rate for loans uh slightly about uh 15 basis points. However, this was the single biggest reduction since uh the uh, the the banks uh pricing from 2019 - and this is a signal that uh china is realizing, yeah, okay, we might be in a recession here we might have to start stimulating a little bit. First, i want to thank today's sponsor. Ftxus ftx is the most complete, crypto and finance app out there.

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This is no surprise to us. Margin calls uh according to fidelity and schwab, are still seeing a decline uh in in the number of margin calls. However, i think today we are seeing margin calls. So i kind of think that number is already dated and that's because i think today is one of the days that we're starting to see retail capitulations so we'll see uh.

It's also worth noting that uh germany is sending tanks over to russia. We've got and marupul. Russia's defense minister said that almost 2 000 ukrainian soldiers have now surrendered from the metalwork facility. This has been a sort of a last stronghold for ukrainians.

In my besieged city, the american senate, our senate overwhelmingly approved a 40 billion dollar aid package to ukraine. We just really hope that at some point this now helps actually end the war rather than continuing to pour a fire on the war. We've now got cases of monkey pox being detected in britain, portugal, spain and america. It's a viral disease which causes uh fever, symptoms and a specific kind of rash and uh folks are now suggesting.

Don't worry, fauci's telling us, you only have to wait two weeks and it's transitory folks. We've also got major outflows, obviously hitting every single asset class. There really is no safety other than cash. We know this at this point.

Uh tesla is also no longer kathy, wood's largest position. Imagine that it is now roku. Roku now has a 13.2 billion dollar market value and it is the top of ark's investment class now, which is quite incredible. Arc and kathy have been selling quite a bit of tesla, so maybe that's uh not too terribly much of a surprise.

The same time with all of this uh disaster, we do know that biden is still considering student loan forgiveness about 43 million people in america, hold federal student loans, including 15 million, who own 10, 000 or less, and about 30 senior white house staffers plus aoc also Owe student loan debt so a lot of talk for student loan forgiveness, although the last thing the market really wants to hear right now is anything more potentially inflationary anyway. Folks, this is a disastrous market. I think we are at such high levels of fear and i do believe that fear begets fear, and so it's not going to get easier. However, i am still faithful that inflation will be turning around this year and in a year from now, potentially two years from now, we'll look back and go damn.

I wish i bought more when kevin said everything's on fire, and this sucks and kevin should go on vacation more, so we can buy more discounts thanks. Everyone we'll see in the next one good luck out there.