What's going on guys welcome back to the channel appreciate you guys tuning in before we talk about yesterday's price action and get into uh the detail on today's just gon na go ahead and kind of put out my full view on the market, which is, i believe, We're going to go down to about these purple lines to 364s 365 somewhere in that area, and then i think this is where we're going to get a more aggressive, uh, dead cat bounce or a market rally or some sort of bullish movement that maybe sustains for A week two weeks, but somewhere in this area, give or take a few dollars where i think we're gon na see some accumulation for at least a counter trend, bounce um. So with that being said, that's what i think we're going to see all right now going back to yesterday's price action. Yesterday was an extremely bearish day. Obviously you can see it.

I think we dropped like 13 or 1400 points, something like that from the open. So bearish day, obviously jim cramer says wednesday could be a market rally if china - and this is good, but no market got smoked. Jim market got smoked just like jim cramer, said, 40 return on bitcoin and ethereum. Meanwhile, we're saying it's going to go down 40.

So you just do the opposite of. What's on the mainstream, uh television is the gist of that so um looking into today. So we know why the market put in a pre-market bottom here, that's the negative three weekly deviation, so we know that that's currently a true support, uh in the sense that you have to go below that to go lower in yada, yada, so um. However, the market wants to shake out today for one you're not going to be bearish until you go below, obviously the pre-market low and the reason i say that is because that is a statistical probability zone.

So this zone that you're seeing right here from 384 73 to 385 69 is your next zone. That needs to be broken on the downside to see the continuation lower when looking on the upside. Your resistance for the upside should be 390 37 on the spy for right now. Arguably, this um 290 75 on the nasdaq all right.

So to make it as simple as i can. I use both of these charts throughout the day kind of get a feel for price action, but bottom line markets aren't really bearish until they get below the negative three weekly in the immediate, and you can see bullish moves on the nasdaq and the spy all the Way up until they get to their next statistical probability, which generally they're going to be tested with some sort of selling pressure. So a better way of saying this, is you definitely can't be swing long unless you're actually getting back over even like prices like 393 390? Seven but um, let me bring this chart down so remember the other day we talked about the bullish cross and we said you know now we're seeing some bullish movement and we got little sort of like a two day move up um and then we sold off All right now, if you remember, i have been mentioning that i think we're. Obviously many of us think we're on a bear market and we are trading in a bear market um, so the rallies are shorter and the bear trends are longer right and then we had discussed that you um, you wouldn't be swing short until you get this sort Of cross okay, so just yesterday we got the fail of the 50 moving average and many other things, but we had a cross of the 10 below the 50 and that's a good indication that currently on the sell side and as you can see since the cross, The market trended down all yesterday we've done a slight gap down today.

So since we got that crossed yesterday - and let me mark that on the chart, so you can kind of see where that would be at, and so when it was green, we got the cross. So it crosses right there, which means price is somewhere around there. Okay, so now we've crossed that we go and look at the chart from yesterday. All right.

So arguably, let's see um yep one second yeah. So i can't remember exactly, but i would say what happened after this drop so after this drop probably about. I think it was actually ref more like right here. So right.

There is when that cross actually happened and then from there we trended down and continued trending down and we're still down a little bit this morning. So the concept here is, until you get these two moving averages to cross again: you're, not going to see this sort of trend in the market right, you see how the blue cross the red - and we kind of had up trending motion for two days until the Blue comes up and crosses the red again, the only thing you get are counter trend balances they get sold into and eventually one of those bounces will kind of push up and then that's where we'll get the cross. And then you can see we'll probably get one or two days, continuation that same direction so for now uh in the immediate. In terms of talking, you know immediate trading view um, you're, bearish and you're not swing bullish until those moving averages re-cross right now.

Alongside of that, we can look at different statistical probabilities to also gauge levels. So we know that we have statistical probabilities here and we have them here and that's why the market bottom and that's why the markets kind of jump to there. So when we look at it from this view, we know that this was the most recent breakdown right there. Okay, so we break down.

We run to the next statistical probability down right here. Instead of breaking, we find some algorithm support here. We bounce now this bounce pretty much goes up, not all the way there, but you know just just in general right here, okay, so we know that right now the market is trapped in between these two statistical probability zones until we either get above and hold above. We can't really see much more long bias movement, which means the trade to be long was clearly from here to about here, and we know that this can be a resistance.

So, unless we're above that and holding above there's not a whole lot more long to get so by getting long here, well, not anymore, but if you had by getting along there, your potential target was this and it can only go higher if it gets above that And starts holding pullbacks above, whereas the market could actually stop and reverse all the way back to these blue lines. So your risk to reward on the long here is not good. It's like a one. You know you're risking one to lose like four five.

Six, who knows exactly right, whereas here you're, risking, maybe one two to go all the way back up to there? Okay, so we know the market is kind of trapped in between these two zones can't go more bearish till below that and can't really trend out bullish till above that and you're not going to be swing long until you get that moving average cross. So, for now all counter trend, bounces, you should expect - are going to get sold into and then, when we actually get that bullish cross, that's where you can start thinking more dip, long bias for continuation trend, motion up all right. That being said, i'll see you guys. The next one take care, wait no hold on i'm not done uh yeah, so i forgot about targets price targets, so you already have them.

I don't even have to speak about them because you already have them all these colors here. Those are all the price targets. Arguably they they do adjust and move at the open. So if you run this system and have the system from us, then you know that but um, these are all the targets and the way the market works.

Just like you saw here, you see when the market took out this level. Where did it go? It went to this level, that's it so if the market took out this level, you'd first, look to that one! Well, that's kind of messy, but yeah market took out. This goes to here. Market takes out this try to go to there market takes out this.

Try to go there margaret take out that one try to go to there and that's how the game goes right and so quick fyi. You can see a market break go to the next bounce. Like you saw, you can see it go to the next level. Try but then fail break instead of running directly to the next one down.

It'll, actually counter trend bounce back to retest the levels that it had just broken before. Moving lower and a perfect example of this would be yesterday, which was the first green level on the day right here. Okay - and this was slightly more accurate yesterday, but you can see the market had. Let me, let me show you okay, so yesterday, market trapped in between these two breaks down goes to the next one.

Instead of holding a bounce, we break under counter trend, bounce back to it actually does a small little head and shoulders pattern off of it and then lower okay, and then i think it does it on the next one too believe it or not. Where am i yep, arguably, does it there too? Okay - and so you see it even here so market breaks this trying to go to there, but before it does so, it breaks down counter trend bounce back into it down again, then another counter bounce back, trying to bounce the market just above into it, then down All the way to the green line, and that's where you start to see these aggressives, you know so that's how the market basically functions so um. What i'm actually looking at here is i'm kind of thinking the market is going to try to push long out of the gates to maybe retest some of these areas, but in by no means am i extremely long bias right now. Um.

I want to be long biased, but i'm still have the gut feeling the markets are going to try to trend to 364.. So that's a price that i've been eyeing for a while. Now, um, you know to see if the market would get there, and you know some idea tells me that's going to be an area where the market that's going to be an area where the market has a dead cat bounce per se. Okay, now, what we just saw here are two ghostwick candles or motherwick candles, so that, as well, is a little signal that we could be trying to do like a little pop up into those areas to test the market.

You know, another thing is uh. The market hasn't opened yet and we've trended lower since last night, so you can see we stopped here and then we went to here and arguably right here. So the market's gone down. So there's a good chance that some of these, let me just double check yeah.

So you can see how this stair step down so since we've trended lower overnight, there's a good chance that these are going to stair step down. So we could very well see at the open these kind of adjust and drop to say right here and that's why the market's stopping right about there and that's why you got those wicks there um. You know so, if you're on my twitter and you watch this i'll post a video to see where these update in the beginning of the day and we can see if they end up matching up. And if i was right about that.

But anyways guys. That is the video for today. Take care have a great rest of your day, and i will see you guys in the next video.