Why Tom Nash is so bullish about Palantir, even now, when the stock price dropped below the DPO price and fell to below $7 per share.
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Hey this is tom nash, and last time i did this car video, you all complained. I was driving how unsafe that was. I completely agree valid criticism, so this time i actually pulled over so check this out. I'm sure a lot of you are wondering at this point: why is this guy still so balls deep into planeteer, with the share price? Being literally in the toilet? I mean if you look peak to trough forty dollars at the height of the pandemic, all the way to eight dollars now and it went all the way to seven below seven.

So is this hubris pride ego, lack of ability to admit defeat? I mean what's driving me to be so bullish about the stock. Now i'm not going to sit here and pretend that this is the perfect stock that alex karp is the perfect ceo, because neither of these would be true. Alex carp has a lot of issues with communication skills and how he presents data. But i think he's a great ceo, i think he's perfect, but he's definitely been delivering.

And i know that, because i'm insanely entrenched into the finances of the company and how it operates and the amount of success alex carp had. On the other hand, i mean there's also issues with the company. Some of them are justified. Some of them are not justified.

I think they have a lot of competition in enterprise software, which does not get mentioned enough. That's justified. On the other hand, people talking about dilution, which is a complete false fud. The company had 1.7 billion shares when the dpo when it went public, so the actual dilution, since the company went public all the way.

Now it's from 1.7 billion shares to 2 billion shares and change. So a lot of it is nonsense, and you just saw today, microsoft announced they're issuing a lot of sbc stock based comp to retain employees. That's pretty standard, but i'm not here to rant about why volunteer is good or bad. All i'm saying it's not a perfect company, it has a lot of flaws.

It's not a perfect management. They have a lot of flaws. However. However, i think that this is one of the most intriguing companies right now in the market.

Now, the reason why i'm so bullish isn't none of the things it's just listed, it's the psychological analysis that you have to do with yourself. So when you invest in companies, especially especially in times of bear markets and in time of trouble, you have to be insanely familiar with every nut ball and screw of the company you're. Investing in you have to know the financials. You have to know the balance sheet.

The cash flow you have to know the management, the business model, every little detail and trust me. If you ask me anything about volunteer, i can quote you: what's the average spend on the top 20 clients, which is 45 million, and heart went up from 35 million to 45 million year over year in q1, which is a 24 increase. I can talk about how much they spend on employee stock options in this quarter, which is 150 million plus tax, which is another seven. So i can tell you how much it was the quarter one of previous year, which was 200 plus 57, so it was 257.
So i can quote a lot of data because i'm so deep into this company. I know everything there is to know about this company. I know their growth, i know their struggles. I know where they're you know the sales force issues they have with the brand new sales force competing in one of the most insanely competitive markets, which is enterprise software competing against the snowflakes.

The microsoft is hard, so i know the ups and downs. I know it's like being married for so long. You know all the flaws and the good things in the bad parts. So you know everything.

So, if you get to this point, where you that familiar with the company, that's in your portfolio, there is absolutely no fear when the share price drops. Trust me when i say this: i'm not bullshitting you. I've never felt even i joke about it. On twitter, we make all these jokes.

Like i met nine, some other volunteer people. I have zero fear when the stock price drops. I mean i don't care in fact, i'm at this point in my life, where i'm so familiar with the stock and i'm seeing at the company get better and better and better quarter of the quarter net retention: 124, a commercial actually taking over slowly becoming now. Half of the revenue, so i'm seeing all these processes going on with the company.

So when i see the ship price drop to six seven dollars whatever it is eight dollars for me, the experience isn't fear it's more like imagine like you were a kid and you walk into your favorite gamestop. Then you know, gamestop was a thing then right and then you walk into a gamestop shout out to the gamestop community and all of your favorite video games. Everything is on massive sales. 60, 70 off you're gon na be like.

Oh, my god, everything i love is just so much cheaper and you're gon na try to figure out. Okay, i have just so much money. I have to figure out. Where do i want to put it because everything is on sale? You get excited, there's there's a rush, there's no fear.

So that's the reason i'm so bullish about it. I see the company and i see the company like look what what's the fear with the share price actually dropping. The fear is that the company will go bankrupt. It's going to lose coverage because it goes below.

I don't know five dollars, etcetera, it's going to go into oblivion. Now that can happen if the company is actually losing share price because the company is underperforming. That's not the case with volunteer volunteers growing thirty percent year over year, it's guiding for another thirty percent, all the way to 2025.. Their margins are decent they're free cash flow positive.

Last year they did 424 million of cash flow from operations on the 1.5 billion dollar revenue, so they have no debt. Their asset solubility is a three to one, so they're not going bankrupt. In fact, their cash flow is getting better and better margins getting better their cash flow. Positive, no debt, their their clients, are spending.
On average, the top 20 clients are spending 45 dollars per year. Net dollar retention is growing 124, so the company isn't going bankrupt. In fact, it's getting better every quarter, so the share price dropping, isn't jeopardizing the company in any way shape or form, so there's absolutely no risk there. For me, as far as like the share price dropping, oh my god, the company might get delisted.

I mean look. It's not it's, not it's not hard to stay bullish on the stock when you absolutely know the company now, if you know the company - and you know it's that's a whole different enchilada or if you don't know the company, you have a lot of hope. You minute. That's a whole different ballgame as well, but if you know the company and it's solid, the dimension is great, so this whole share drop is pretty much meaningless.

So if you just want a glimpse into, why i'm so bullish, that's why now a shout out to our channel members and patrons for supporting me, we had an amazing zoom call. Yesterday we talked about zim, which birthed a video this morning, which i feel was well deserved. Thank you for gabe, my community for giving me that lead about zim and the rest of the community for a very interesting zoom call. If you want to join a community and participate in their zoom calls and brainstorm with us, it's five dollars per month.

The link is gon na, be below, hopefully for the patreon community and i'll see you there.

By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

29 thoughts on “Palantir: my biggest mistake?”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TheInvisibleOne says:

    What ever happened to donโ€™t click nothing donโ€™t buy nothing? Guess that BS is gone

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars iFly81 says:

    PLTR future is bright, but as always the stock does not follow the trend. This is worrying me the most: high performance, shitty stock value forever.

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Greg says:

    Tom whatโ€™s the base case PT u expect PLTR to reach by 2025 and then 2030?

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars peter jones says:

    Tom everything has gone down not just palantir it the matket were in name 1 stock that up lol

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Henry M. says:

    There is one risk when share price is low. Employees can start dropping the company, since SBC is part of the salary. Imagine the employee that got RSU or options when the price was 40.

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Gustavs ล teinbergs says:

    It would be interesting if you would make a video on โ€œWhat would make you sell PLTRโ€

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars BOSS ROSS says:

    When 20$, wow incredible company! When 8$, wow could get so much worse!

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ben Klingman says:

    I like you analogy a lot of being in a game store where itโ€™s all on sale. As someone who tries to invest rationally and loves your advise, I donโ€™t feel worried about movement in high conviction plays, more a feeling of kid in a candy store or game store. Figure out which one is the most valuable to you and act!

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jarek Kazberuk says:

    In every game there are rules to follow. You don't play volleyball on the soccer field, business is business with limited room for philosophy. Extended period of low stock price may affect employees' interest in staying with the company. I am long PLTR and hope CEO can adjust his communication style.

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dean Colby says:

    Stockholm syndrome. You really should feel the same way democracy feels as Peter Thiel waterboards it into happy-faced fascism.

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars kevin aguirre says:

    Still waiting for it to get to 6 dollars once the market hits lower ima double down just saving my money because it just seems like the market will keep dropping

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars J K says:

    Nanny state, self-righteous liberals were telling you that…….

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars GodSentBeast says:

    Iโ€™m down 10k on PLTR but at these prices I can buy a lot more & make it all back ๐Ÿค‘

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kannan Srinivasan says:

    Excellent presentation again and all numbers are at your fingertips. I doubt even these management guys know this much in detail as you have understood this company. Kudos to you

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Edward says:

    Thanks Tom for all your video on PLTR keep me sane. I have 50,000 shares of PLTR

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars cyberking555 says:

    Much respect for this video. Takes a lot to accept criticism and swallow your pride to admit flaws, mistakes, and wrongdoings. I wish the critics could give you a break man. Just because someone has a platform doesnโ€™t mean theyโ€™re perfect.

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Pinky Powers says:

    It bothers me you have to keep making these videos, because you haven't said anything new. You've said all these things in a hundred previous Palantir videos. Yet people are STILL confused by these basic, fundamental principles of investing.

    The company is doing great, and keeps getting better. That is why you're bullish. Why would anyone be confused by that?

    We're in a terrible market. Stock prices suck, all over. Get over it, people.

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Train To Be A Freak says:

    What about the mass dilution making the market cap several billion dollars at $3 a share? How high can the price actually go?

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars tarpexio says:

    Nah your biggest mistake was that call that the fed won't do anything and we'll get a rally above 500 up to 550 on spy, that aged like milk. Pltr is probably a 10 years play, but if they weather the storms it'll print, just not for a long time.

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars 02929203 222222242 says:

    "Top 20 clients are paying $45 on average a year"
    Good job

    yes ik tom probs meant $45M
    pls no bully – i bought pltr stock at $10 ๐Ÿ™‚

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chicken Lite says:

    literally emptied my bank accnt been buying like crazy <3 best stock to put my savings

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Crypto Coin says:

    Tom I love your work, I bet your carrying a huge loss on this.
    I agree great company , but will take time to get your money back

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars planet pluto says:

    I would be concerned if we were getting this price action when the stock market is at all time highs. I appreciate all the financial details youve provided on PLTR

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars kaputasri says:

    They need a better CEO or marketing team that can remove the mystery/misunderstanding. They need someone to dumb it down so it can be marketed more easily.

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars michael ondracek says:

    PLTR is an amazing company ran by amazing people. Its misunderstood. I'm in and have bought hi and low but keep buying. Also if people are concerned about you driving and doing a video they should worry about themselves.

  26. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars rajenpattni says:

    Foundry is sold to businesses as one product and can be expensive for a lot of businesses. It will be interesting when they look to break it down and sell smaller areas of the product! This should improve the sales further

  27. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mark Lukomskiy says:

    In it for long game, the market will be irrational longer than most of us can stay solvent !

  28. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Roberto Carbajal says:

    Buying more at these prices fyi I think your an older version of Luka doncic lol jk keep up the great work

  29. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Qingyu Hu says:

    The bright side is if the stock even recovers half way I'm in really good shape! Pretty sure Tom said this before: stock market is the only place when sh!t goes on sale, everyone runs out of the door!

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